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How much could Dorne influence in the war of the 5 kings?


Arthur Peres

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Let’s say that Doran saw the oportunity of getting his revenge against the Lannisters during the wot5k. 

Which of the Kings would be his best option to support against the Lannisters?

How much could he change the results?

And what moment would be the best to move against the Lions?

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Hard to say with their secret links to the targ plot and the doran viper double act i think they always planned a surgical strike using the viper first! He was always gonna show up at some function instead of the prince and wreck havoc/vengance on lannisters....if they just wennt straight to war theres a strong chance they help robb/stannis win but tywin still retreats in good order to casterly rock out of their reach forever!!!! The other issue with direct warfare is any side they back will prob have highgarden as an enemy

That said if doran takes the chance then they probably declare for stannis knowing full well he wont stop til hes king and besieging casterly rock to wipe out the incest kids and cersei  , that and his florent wife  as queen means their enemies the  tyrells days as lords of reach would be over!!

Best option is when mace leads the rest of the reach against stannis the  dornish take advantage and march into ravage the reach forcing mace to return .....without the reachs boats tywin still marches to kl but makes worse time and is too late (the dornish prob lsend word to stannis too) . Meanwhile the reach drives out the dornish who retreat with little fighting but are stupid enough to try and follow them to dorne and are bled dry ( somewhere we may even get the awesome prospect of hotah/viper/darkstar vs garlan/renly etc) 

 

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The War of the Five Kings was basically a war amongst all of Dorne's enemies. In Doran's mind he probably thought it was a good thing for his plans of waiting for Viserys and smashing oranges. If Dorne did plan to do anything I'm guessing they'd probably send their 10,000 spears like they did in Robert's Rebellion. If the numbers ever get out about how many men Dorne sent to fight in the first Blackfyre Rebellion that would also help to figure out how many men Dorne usually sends out for a conflict without leaving Dorne undefended. 

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1 hour ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

The War of the Five Kings was basically a war amongst all of Dorne's enemies. In Doran's mind he probably thought it was a good thing for his plans of waiting for Viserys and smashing oranges. If Dorne did plan to do anything I'm guessing they'd probably send their 10,000 spears like they did in Robert's Rebellion. If the numbers ever get out about how many men Dorne sent to fight in the first Blackfyre Rebellion that would also help to figure out how many men Dorne usually sends out for a conflict without leaving Dorne undefended. 

Doran was an idiot for trying to betroth Arianne to Viserys. Nobody would want to betroth their daughter to a psychopath like Viserys, if Joffrey's behavior with Sansa is any indication.

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35 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Doran was an idiot for trying to betroth Arianne to Viserys. Nobody would want to betroth their daughter to a psychopath like Viserys, if Joffrey's behavior with Sansa is any indication.

In fairness Viserys was a child, who Doran didn't know, so he was unlikely to know exactly what Viserys was like, or how bad he'd get.

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1 minute ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

In fairness Viserys was a child, who Doran didn't know, so he was unlikely to know exactly what Viserys was like, or how bad he'd get.

Barristan said there were signs from the start.

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4 hours ago, hodorisfaclessman said:

Hard to say with their secret links to the targ plot and the doran viper double act i think they always planned a surgical strike using the viper first! He was always gonna show up at some function instead of the prince and wreck havoc/vengance on lannisters....if they just wennt straight to war theres a strong chance they help robb/stannis win but tywin still retreats in good order to casterly rock out of their reach forever!!!! The other issue with direct warfare is any side they back will prob have highgarden as an enemy

That said if doran takes the chance then they probably declare for stannis knowing full well he wont stop til hes king and besieging casterly rock to wipe out the incest kids and cersei  , that and his florent wife  as queen means their enemies the  tyrells days as lords of reach would be over!!

Best option is when mace leads the rest of the reach against stannis the  dornish take advantage and march into ravage the reach forcing mace to return .....without the reachs boats tywin still marches to kl but makes worse time and is too late (the dornish prob lsend word to stannis too) . Meanwhile the reach drives out the dornish who retreat with little fighting but are stupid enough to try and follow them to dorne and are bled dry ( somewhere we may even get the awesome prospect of hotah/viper/darkstar vs garlan/renly etc) 

  

 

I find interesting that you discarded Renly right off the bat, even though he had the biggest army.

Is this because what we know about the shadowbaby ?

Also about getting Dorne alliance and turning the Tyrells into enemies, Renly thought that it was possibly to have them both on his side, and they were allies during Robert's Rebellion. Could you elaborate more about it?

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13 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Let’s say that Doran saw the oportunity of getting his revenge against the Lannisters during the wot5k. 

Which of the Kings would be his best option to support against the Lannisters?

How much could he change the results?

And what moment would be the best to move against the Lions?

IRRC, Tyrion's (and I think Tywin's as well) biggest fear is that Doran will lend his support to Stannis, which is why he offered Myrcella, the council seat, etc. Otherwise, Stannis would have been the only viable option for Dorne, despite Renly's anticipation of their support -- too much bad blood between Dorne and the Reach. Robb is not really an option either since he is on the other side of the continent and there would be no real way to coordinate strategy. And the Greyjoys are not worth the bother.

So in the end, I think Doran played it pretty well. He offered nominal support to one faction, which allowed him to sit back and see how the war developed. If things went south for the Lannisters, they can always retreat back into the desert and dare the new king to invade. If the Lanns prevailed, like they did, they have an inside into the new ruling order, which gives them all sorts of advantages to exact their revenge in a uniquely Dornish fashion.

 

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28 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So in the end, I think Doran played it pretty well. He offered nominal support to one faction, which allowed him to sit back and see how the war developed. If things went south for the Lannisters, they can always retreat back into the desert and dare the new king to invade. If the Lanns prevailed, like they did, they have an inside into the new ruling order, which gives them all sorts of advantages to exact their revenge in a uniquely Dornish fashion.

 

I don't think so.

Doran wanted Viserys as match for Arianne and king. This does not work because the guy pretty much commited suicide by dothraki.

Doran sends Oberyn to King's Landing, the guy gets killed defending a kingslayer and a kinslayer (in the eyes of westeros)

Doran sends Quentyn for Daenerys, the guy gets reject and dies.

He has lost so much face value that his daughter and heir almost started a coup against him.

Dorne seems to be weaker than ever, they have no alliance with other regions, no royal marriage, no position in the small concil, he lost a brother and a son enchange of nothing. Meanwhile the Lannisters now control the Westerlands, Reach, and Stormlands.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

I don't think so.

Doran wanted Viserys as match for Arianne and king. This does not work because the guy pretty much commited suicide by dothraki.

Doran sends Oberyn to King's Landing, the guy gets killed defending a kingslayer and a kinslayer (in the eyes of westeros)

Doran sends Quentyn for Daenerys, the guy gets reject and dies.

He has lost so much face value that his daughter and heir almost started a coup against him.

Dorne seems to be weaker than ever, they have no alliance with other regions, no royal marriage, no position in the small concil, he lost a brother and a son enchange of nothing. Meanwhile the Lannisters now control the Westerlands, Reach, and Stormlands.

 

 

Well sure, but I'm talking about his alliances and positioning in the war. He made a total hash of everything else.

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1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Well sure, but I'm talking about his alliances and positioning in the war. He made a total hash of everything else.

I don't understand you point.

So Correct me if I'm wrong, but your argument was that, by staying away from the fight, they now will have a way inside to the Lannisters, but they are now out of the small concil, Cersei is trying to kill Tristan to end the betrothal and push the dornish even far away from the crow, they have no allies in the realm and Doran is losing face at each turn.

I always thought that the whole Targeryan restoration of Doran was more like a means to a end (revenge) letting him in a good position in the process as a bonus.

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He could have supported either Renly or Stannis and made a huge contribution.  If he supports Rernly he could have sent his army to Storms End when Stannsi besieged it, allowing Renly to defeat his brother without becoming a Kinslayer, and as we know avoiding the shadow baby.  With this done the war is practically won for Renly.  He can continue his slow march or move on Kings Landing quickly, either way the outcome is the same, Tywin lacks the strength to fight all the forces arrayed against him.  Baelish would probably even unleash the Vale in this situation seeing the writing on the wall.

If he supports Stannis then he invades the Reach while Stannis moves on Kings Landing.  As another poster said above Mace would have ordered his army back and been unable to support Tywin at Kings Landing, if he made it back at all.  If Stannis takes Kings Landing, has Dorne, and the Stormlands,  The North and Riverlands would surely declare fealty, and Tywin would be back in the Westerlands.  All that would be left to do would be to make peace with the Reach, then he can march on Tywin however he likes with the rest of the Continent behind him.

Obviously many things could always go wrong in any scenario, but he clearly could have made a huge difference and effected whoever sat the thrown if he acted decisively.  The problem as several have noted already is that he didn't just want revenge on Tywin, he also wanted his daughter to be Queen with Viserys.

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1 minute ago, Arthur Peres said:

I don't understand you point.

So Correct me if I'm wrong, but your argument was that, by staying away from the fight, they now will have a way inside to the Lannisters, but they are now out of the small concil, Cersei is trying to kill Tristan to end the betrothal and push the dornish even far away from the crow, they have no allies in the realm and Doran is losing face at each turn.

I always thought that the whole Targeryan restoration of Doran was more like a means to a end (revenge) letting him in a good position in the process as a bonus.

They still have a seat on the council, and actually Cersei wants the master of arms of the Red Keep to be Dornish as well.

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3 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

I find interesting that you discarded Renly right off the bat, even though he had the biggest army.

Is this because what we know about the shadowbaby ?

Also about getting Dorne alliance and turning the Tyrells into enemies, Renly thought that it was possibly to have them both on his side, and they were allies during Robert's Rebellion. Could you elaborate more about it?

Good call to be honest didnt even consider renly i just picked the most oppertune moment for them to act , if they backed renly first id say that would carry over to stannis after shadowbaby anyway given he represents vengence for them...maybe with the difference being the viper takes an elite force of a few hundred to track ser gregor in the riverlands(maybe takes some heavy hitters like hotah with him) the rest move to intercept tywins force probaly in conjunction from another  tully lead force who would now be more confident to march out and face tywin in open battle again 

Renly may have mentioned it but id say the tryell hatred for dorne might sour any attempts , they did fight alongside eachother in the rebellion but never side by side plus we know since then the red vipers maiming of willas seemsto have stirred up old hatreds (may be more involved we dont know) to the point where the defacto highgarden ruler (olenna) cant even be civil to them in kingslanding and blood is almost spilled then and there

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3 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

I don't think so.

Doran wanted Viserys as match for Arianne and king. This does not work because the guy pretty much commited suicide by dothraki.

Doran sends Oberyn to King's Landing, the guy gets killed defending a kingslayer and a kinslayer (in the eyes of westeros)

Doran sends Quentyn for Daenerys, the guy gets reject and dies.

He has lost so much face value that his daughter and heir almost started a coup against him.

Dorne seems to be weaker than ever, they have no alliance with other regions, no royal marriage, no position in the small concil, he lost a brother and a son enchange of nothing. Meanwhile the Lannisters now control the Westerlands, Reach, and Stormlands.

 

 

To be fair theres a lot there that coulda went right that went wrong  with his and his brothers plotting, While you are right hes now in weaker position than ever a lot could have gone one way or another with his moves

The biggest thing was the vipers vist to kl........ he may or may not have sucessfully posioned tywin and was a hairs breath from killing the mountain in a trial thus freeing tyrion and totaly causing havoc among the lannisters( tyrion wont wait hel strike back adap)  !!!!! I feel the vipers objective was always just that to wreck vengence as only a man of his intellegence  and skills could

The viserys plot never went anywhere no but then he didnt expect viserys to be so stupid 

And the final plot with poor quentyn again could have borne fruit it simply dies due to circumstance 

 

You are right his 'good cop' routine to the vipers bad cop almost ends in a coup and thats his major blunder...his daughter and the snakes are very capable and public figures having them on board would have been much better

 

 

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5 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Barristan most likely saw him every day. Doran wouldn't have, and maybe never saw Viserys at all.

Doran may not have seen Viserys, but Doran's uncle Lewyn was in the Kingsguard, and he was subject to the same level of involvement as Selmy.  If Viserys was really showing signs of madness as a youth, Doran would have known.

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