How much could Dorne influence in the war of the 5 kings?

[John Suburbs]

On ‎8‎/‎14‎/‎2018 at 4:00 PM, Arthur Peres said:

But even then I still think that this was more due to luck than a master plan. Doran just took the bone that was throw at him (myrcella and the castles in the dornish march), he never planned any of this, but he kept his strength intact.

Sure, but everyone needs a bit of luck now and again. It was lucky for Tywin that Stannis had access to a red priestess who could kill people with shadow babies, otherwise he would have been stuck in the riverlands while Renly sacked KL and murdered his daughter and her children.

It was lucky for the Tyrells that Tyrion killed Tywin, or that Tywin was foolish enough to dine with the Viper if you buy into that theory.

It was lucky for Littlefinger that Catelyn and Tyrion met up on the kings road before Tyrion could expose his lie about the dagger to the king. (Although LF seems to have an inordinate amount of luck, so this one might not be as random as it seems.)

It was lucky that Ned's men found Arya first before Jaime got ahold of her.

Virtually everybody who is still alive in the story is the beneficiary of some kind of luck. Like I said above, the winner of the Game of Thrones is not necessarily the strongest or even the smartest, but the luckiest.

 

[Angel Eyes]

17 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

It was lucky that Ned's men found Arya first before Jaime got ahold of her.

 

Jaime was looking for her?

[John Suburbs]

1 minute ago, Angel Eyes said:

Jaime was looking for her?

Yes

Quote

Jaime IV, FfC

"Do you see that window, ser?" Jaime used a sword to point. "That was Raymun Darry's bedchamber. Where King Robert slept, on our return from Winterfell. Ned Stark's daughter had run off after her wolf savaged Joff, you'll recall. My sister wanted the girl to lose a hand. The old penalty, for striking one of the blood royal. Robert told her she was cruel and mad. They fought for half the night...

snip

"As I was fucking her, Cersei cried, 'I want.' I thought that she meant me, but it was the Stark girl that she wanted, maimed or dead." The things I do for love. "It was only by chance that Stark's own men found the girl before me. If I had come on her first..."

 

[Angel Eyes]

1 minute ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes

 

Oh, right. I thought it was after Tyrion got "Catnapped".

[Arthur Peres]

58 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Sure, but everyone needs a bit of luck now and again. It was lucky for Tywin that Stannis had access to a red priestess who could kill people with shadow babies, otherwise he would have been stuck in the riverlands while Renly sacked KL and murdered his daughter and her children.

 It was lucky for the Tyrells that Tyrion killed Tywin, or that Tywin was foolish enough to dine with the Viper if you buy into that theory.

 It was lucky for Littlefinger that Catelyn and Tyrion met up on the kings road before Tyrion could expose his lie about the dagger to the king. (Although LF seems to have an inordinate amount of luck, so this one might not be as random as it seems.)

 It was lucky that Ned's men found Arya first before Jaime got ahold of her.

 Virtually everybody who is still alive in the story is the beneficiary of some kind of luck. Like I said above, the winner of the Game of Thrones is not necessarily the strongest or even the smartest, but the luckiest.

  

Sure but those people actually had a sucess when they took action. Doran didn't move a inch to get his gains, he just took the bone that was throw at him, when Tyrion decided to give him something.

And I can't call Doran failures bad lucky, but poor planning.

He bet everything that he had in Viserys, Darry died and he never tried to send any form of support to Viserys, he also didn't inform him of nothing, he let the dude live like a begger for a decade... Viserys could have marryied himself to a daughter of a powerfull ambition men of Essos, Viserys could have be killed by one of Robert's assassins, he could just get sick and died... there was very little room for sucess in this.

Then comes the second plan, send his brother to Kings Landing... this one is a bad luck. I doubt anyone in his position would have see that coming.

Third plan, send his plain son to conquer the hottest girl that has 3 dragons with only a letter and a handfull of men. The boy gets rejected, mocked and killed in the process.

During this he also keep his secret soo well guarded that he managed to allienate his heir, to the point she tried a coup against him. This is plain and simple is his incompetence to realize what is happening in his court.

[dmfn]

On 8/9/2018 at 4:24 AM, Arthur Peres said:

No. Lol.

Quentyn to keep an eye on Kings Landing and report back to Doran, without risking to much.

I do not belive that Oberyn was trying to poison Tywin, and I consider becoming Tyrion's champion during the trial a reckless decision.

Quentyn vs the Mountain. That was plan B.

Jokes aside, poisoning Tywin might not have been his objective, but it is very compelling, and very likely to have happened, imo. We get one, neat little mention of a poison that makes you shit inside yourself to death, then get a guy dying on the privy with a corpse full of shit. A man who was the nemesis of a man whose nickname derrives from poisoning people. 

Again, he probably never intended to duel Gregor, but when the opportunity presented itself he couldn't resist. He gambled and lost, but to be fair he almost had him! And he pretty much did kill him. And he pretty much got a confession. Living would have been ideal though, since people like life and all.

[Arthur Peres]

23 minutes ago, dmfn said:

Quentyn vs the Mountain. That was plan B.

Jokes aside, poisoning Tywin might not have been his objective, but it is very compelling, and very likely to have happened, imo. We get one, neat little mention of a poison that makes you shit inside yourself to death, then get a guy dying on the privy with a corpse full of shit. A man who was the nemesis of a man whose nickname derrives from poisoning people. 

Again, he probably never intended to duel Gregor, but when the opportunity presented itself he couldn't resist. He gambled and lost, but to be fair he almost had him! And he pretty much did kill him. And he pretty much got a confession. Living would have been ideal though, since people like life and all.

Well acording to Doran himself, Tywin was only suppose to die after.

“You mistake patience for forbearance. I have worked at the downfall of Tywin Lannister since the day they told me of Elia and her children. It was my hope to strip him of all that he held most dear before I killed him, but it would seem his dwarf son has robbed me of that pleasure. I take some small solace in knowing that he died a cruel death at the hands of the monster that he himself begot.

Oberyn may have tried to kill Tywin, but Doran seems to not have been part of this plot. 

[dmfn]

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

Well acording to Doran himself, Tywin was only suppose to die after.

“You mistake patience for forbearance. I have worked at the downfall of Tywin Lannister since the day they told me of Elia and her children. It was my hope to strip him of all that he held most dear before I killed him, but it would seem his dwarf son has robbed me of that pleasure. I take some small solace in knowing that he died a cruel death at the hands of the monster that he himself begot.

Oberyn may have tried to kill Tywin, but Doran seems to not have been part of this plot. 

Right. This is the dude who described himself as "grass".

[The Sleeper]

My personal view is that we should take anything that comes out of Doran's mouth with a grain of salt. I don't believe that he ever intended to pursue vengeance, but what he says and does is aimed at keeping Dorne out of the war. For instance I don't believe he knew of, approved or endorsed the marriage pact made by Oberyn. I don't believe that they worked together or that he had the same goals as Oberyn, but was rather trying to manage his unruly but charismatic younger brother. And consequently Arrianne and the Sand Snakes who have picked up his legacy. I believe that the various errands he has sent his relatives to are aimed first and foremost at removing them from where they can influence policy and at keeping as many options open as possible. 

[honorable men]

30 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

My personal view is that we should take anything that comes out of Doran's mouth with a grain of salt. I don't believe that he ever intended to pursue vengeance, but what he says and does is aimed at keeping Dorne out of the war. For instance I don't believe he knew of, approved or endorsed the marriage pact made by Oberyn. I don't believe that they worked together or that he had the same goals as Oberyn, but was rather trying to manage his unruly but charismatic younger brother. And consequently Arrianne and the Sand Snakes who have picked up his legacy. I believe that the various errands he has sent his relatives to are aimed first and foremost at removing them from where they can influence policy and at keeping as many options open as possible. 

Funny thing is that he self destructing and losing everything he holds dear before eventually dying off. His wife left him. His brother and sister died. His kids are on a suicide mission. He is going to go unbow, unbent and unbroken right off the cliff.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

2 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

My personal view is that we should take anything that comes out of Doran's mouth with a grain of salt. I don't believe that he ever intended to pursue vengeance, but what he says and does is aimed at keeping Dorne out of the war. For instance I don't believe he knew of, approved or endorsed the marriage pact made by Oberyn. I don't believe that they worked together or that he had the same goals as Oberyn, but was rather trying to manage his unruly but charismatic younger brother. And consequently Arrianne and the Sand Snakes who have picked up his legacy. I believe that the various errands he has sent his relatives to are aimed first and foremost at removing them from where they can influence policy and at keeping as many options open as possible. 

That doesn't explain Quentyn's mission to Daenerys though, or Arianne's mission to Aegon.

[The Sleeper]

28 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

That doesn't explain Quentyn's mission to Daenerys though, or Arianne's mission to Aegon.

Quentyn is a ward of the traditional rivals of the Martels for supremacy in Dorne. It gets him out of Dorne and had it been successful and it would have done so permanently. It also could be disavowed. Apart from Quentyn himself it might have been expedited entirely by the Yronwoods.

Arrianne's could be more of a fact finding mission. It still gets her out of Dorne and there is no guarantee that the Dornish armies will move on her word or the way he expects them to. And it also gets a person that tried to remove him from power out of Dorne.

Myrcela is still in his ward. He is still  a nominal ally of the Iron Throne. From his point of view he has a foot in three camps, while so far he has not in any significant sense has been involved in the war. He may or may not be waiting for an opportunity. But I think this lack of commitment is quite deliberate.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

1 minute ago, The Sleeper said:

Quentyn is a ward of the traditional rivals of the Martels for supremacy in Dorne. It gets him out of Dorne and had it been successful and it would have done so permanently. It also could be disavowed. Apart from Quentyn himself it might have been expedited entirely by the Yronwoods.

Quentyn is clearly loyal to his father, Doran would have no reason to try to get him out of Dorne.

2 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

Arrianne's could be more of a fact finding mission. It still gets her out of Dorne and there is no guarantee that the Dornish armies will move on her word or the way he expects them to. And it also gets a person that tried to remove him from power out of Dorne.

He clearly convinced Arianne of his plans. Even if he hadn't, why send her to Aegon if he wants rid? He could send her anywhere he likes.

The same with Quentyn and the Sand Snakes for that matter. Why send them all on diplomatically sensitive missions, which if they get wrong, could land him in serious trouble?

4 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

I think this lack of commitment is quite deliberate.

I agree, but he's keeping his powder dry, not trying to stay out of things entirely. Otherwise, he could just keep the Sand Snakes and his daughter in Sunspear, and his son with the Yronwoods, and wait things out.

[The Sleeper]

10 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Quentyn is clearly loyal to his father, Doran would have no reason to try to get him out of Dorne.

That is not necessary something that would be immediately obvious to an outsider or to Doran for that matter. Besides he clearly also views the Yronwoods as family. Who would Quentyn chose if it came to that? I don't think anyone can be sure of that and that is why ultimately Doran would want to be rid of Quentyn. On absolute realpolitik terms any benefit lord Yronwoods might have gotten from raising Quentyn as a ward has been lost along with his own heir. 

Another reason he sent Quentyn away could be the marriage pact for Arianne and Viserys. Assuming Quentyn begun his mission after Viserys died and that Doran did endorse the pact to begin with, it might hand been away to get rid of a document that paints him a traitor without arousing the Red Viper, who I think held the document over Dora's head. 

17 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

He clearly convinced Arianne of his plans.

Were those his plans? He released her after all from imprisonment when he needed something from her. What if he simply told her what he needed to hear in order for her to play along?

 

21 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

The same with Quentyn and the Sand Snakes for that matter. Why send them all on diplomatically sensitive missions, which if they get wrong, could land him in serious trouble? 

In theory yes, he could send them anywhere he wants. But in the first chapter we meet him he goes to Sunspear and walks into a near root. His palanquin and retainers got pelted with fruit. Remember how his nieces and his daughter address him. I think the trouble he fears most is the one all of the above would cause at home. There is strong public feeling in Dorne that any of them could exploit to start a civil war and he fears that using force to suppress them could result in the same. Arianne demonstrated that. 

 

29 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I agree, but he's keeping his powder dry, not trying to stay out of things entirely. Otherwise, he could just keep the Sand Snakes and his daughter in Sunspear, and his son with the Yronwoods, and wait things out.

I don't think playing Switzerland is an option for him. For the reasons stated above. It also doesn't mean that because he wants to stay out of it others will accept that and not demand his allegiance. It would spare him trouble to play along to a point and try to make as less costly as possible. 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

10 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

I don't think anyone can be sure of that and that is why ultimately Doran would want to be rid of Quentyn.

It's a very strange way to get rid of him, to send him off to offer marriage to Daenerys. There must be a hundred better ways to dispose of him if that's the aim.

10 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

Were those his plans? He released her after all from imprisonment when he needed something from her. What if he simply told her what he needed to hear in order for her to play along?

And it worked, so why send her away? And again, if getting rid of her is the aim, why send her on a mission to Aegon? It seems very elaborate for a simple "keep her busy" plan.

 

 

[The Sleeper]

12 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

It's a very strange way to get rid of him, to send him off to offer marriage to Daenerys. There must be a hundred better ways to dispose of him if that's the aim.

I believe the first example in literature is from the Bible where David send a soldier whose wife he coveted to war so that she might be widowed.

He gets rid of him and appears to honor him with his trust at the same time and if it works? Hey, dragons.

18 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

And it worked, so why send her away? And again, if getting rid of her is the aim, why send her on a mission to Aegon? It seems very elaborate for a simple "keep her busy" plan. 

And eventually Arianne would have expected him to actually do something about revenge. Besides he does need to find out how to deal with Aegon. It may be he wants to see how Arianne handles herself. 

Let me put it in another way. Say you are Doran. You have the smallest military in the seven kingdoms and has suffered tremendously at the rebellion, both in terms of influence and actual losses. War breaks out but there is no way to guarantee any concrete benefit, so you want to stay out of it. However outsiders court your allegiance and you have a belligerent people and a belligerent family that can and will at best ignore you and/or try to supplant you. What do you do?

I think that is Doran's situation more or less. 

[Michael Snyder]

1. There are initially five candidates. Stannis Baratheon, Renly Baratheon, Joffrey Baratheon, Robb Stark are the real players. Renly gets eliminated. Now it's Stannis, Joffrey and Robb. Doran probably did not know any of them well, except perhaps Stannis who was near his age. So he would have to depend on other people's information and opinions. He does know that Joffrey holds KL and the Crown Lands and is supported by the Reach and Lady Ohlenna. Joffrey, however, is also supported by Tywin Lannister, who the Dornish want dead or worse. And there is the rumor, and Stannis' claim that Joffrey is really the son of Cersei and Jaimie. If Joffrey and Tommen are illegitimate, then Stannis is the next claimant under primogeniture. But Stannis is being blamed for using blood magic to eliminate his brother, for his stubbornness and his adherence to the Red God. Robb has been proclaimed as King in the North and doesn't want the Iron Throne and wants vengeance on the Lannisters as much as he does. Certainly Viserys has a claim, but no real prospects and while Dorne had remained loyal during Robert's Rebellion, the treatment of Elia and the children by Aerys II, sending his own children to safety but keeping Elia and hers in KL, had probably soured Doran on a Targaryan restoration.

2. Dorne was independent and submitted to Aegon on their own terms after a long insurgency. If Joffrey had promised Dorne independence for its neutrality, Doran might have decided Dorne was more important than his sister. But that wouldn't happen. Doran and Oberyn wanted vengeance. They wouldn't support Joffrey. Stannis was determined to rule all Seven Kingdoms including Dorne, alongside his Red Witch. Would that have been enough for Doran? I don't think so. If Dorne was to intervene in the WotFK, it would have been associated with Robb. It's first move would be to invade the Reach. This would leave Joffrey with only the support of KL, the Crown Lands and the Wester Lands against Robb with the North and the River Lands and Stannis with the Storm Lands. If Loras wasn't there to support Tywin, Stannis might have seized KL. He would have seen that Joffrey, Tommen, Myrcella and Cersei burned for his God. Petyr Bealish would have run to the Vale where he would have convinced Lyssa to intervene against Stannis. Stannis would split the Crown Lands and quickly lose support for burning people. He would soon be putting down rebellions all over the Storm Lands and the Crown Lands and in KL. With Tywin running out of money and Dorne keeping the Reach engaged, Robb would get part of his revenge and complete Doran's vengeance in conquering the Wester Lands and killing Tywin. He would then install a Lannister of his choice and withdraw into the River Lands, warning Stannis to stay away. At this point, Doran offers Lady Ohlenna an accommodation, and support to the lords of the Strom Lands. The Reach and Dorne march their armies to the Trident, joined by the Faith Militant and other adherents of the Faith and defeat Stannis. Stannis dies. The Seven Kingdoms split. Dorne and the Reach, along with the Wester Lands and the Vale join the North in independence. The Faith Militant occupies KL and Petyr Baelish, Prince Consort occupies the Crown Lands. 

PS. LF takes Sansa with him. Marries Lyssa, then pushes her out the Moon Door and marries Sansa as Prince Protector. Or hands Sansa back to Robb for recognition of the Vale's independence, his position as Prince Protector and Cait.

[Arthur Peres]

On 8/8/2018 at 8:20 PM, Ylath's Snout said:

Balon he is a raper and a slaver that worships some really screwy god. Also his main goal seam to be upsetting Ned ghost more than anything. The one thing maybe that could get Doran's inner Rhoynar excited about Balon is that Asha is his preferred heir so back him might result in a ruling queen of the seven kingdom (with a Martell husband of course) down the line. But all the other things about the Ironborn will probably outweigh this. Assuming it happens for some reason this alliance would offer two, maybe three things for the Ironborn: 1 An secure staging ground to attack the Reach and Stormland through as well as another army to tag along for the fun. 2 More "friendly" ports to resupply and dump loot in. This could allow for raids over a wider area resulting sapped moral and army strength as enemy lords have to return to their own lands or allow the Ironborn unopposed raiding. 3 If the Dornish fleet is substantial enough (or their contacts in Essos can acquire the needed sellsails) then the Ironborn might may a play to naval dominance by taking out the Redwyne and Royal fleets. Sure Balon haven't wronged the Dornish directly but siding with him and his slaving ways would go down like a depth charge in a kiddie pool.

I have to give you credit just for considering the possibility. Balon was so dumb that even if someone tried to swear fealty to him he might turn the guy into a thrall. I never considered him a option.

 

On 8/8/2018 at 8:20 PM, Ylath's Snout said:

Renly in some ways I think his is the best pick for Dorne out of the three Baratheons vying for the throne. He really didn't have anything to do with what happened to Elia or her kids at all. So unless Doran is feeling way more revengeful that my impression of him is than I don't think he actually wants to kill Renly unless he has to. Sure he is hitched to a Tyrell and from a dynastic or political point of view that is very bad for Martell ambitions it is actually great for winning the damn war. If there was a Renly-Tyrell-Martell pact then they would have much of Westeros south of King's Landing without fighting a single battle. Sure there are some Stormlords and the Florents to deal with but without the threat of Dornish attacks then I assume those pockets of resistance could be dealt with one way or another. The big problem is of course the shadowbaby. Unless the Martell pact somehow results in Stannis dying or his army deserting him enmass then I assume that Renly and Stannis still would meet and we know how things go from there. The big problem with this alliance is that the Martells wouldn't stand a lot to gain. Renly is hitched and he has enough support from Andal lords that pushing for some Rhoynar inspired reforms will be hard. Maybe a Arianne/Willas match is the best they can hope for and that's not a lot. (this is all assuming Doran get's of his gaut-y butt before Renly gets m-d-k'd)

If Oberyn was in Renly's camp, after the death of Renly, what do you think he would do with the messagers of the Lannisters? Could he sabotage the alliance between the Tyrells and the Lannisters? (I would pay a good money to read a chapter about Oberyn killing Littlefinger).

Also Tarly and Loras executed the men that were trying to go to Stannis camp,to stop a rebellion into his own camp. Do you think that the Dornish could avoid such think or do you think that they could be butchered like the florents?

On 8/8/2018 at 8:20 PM, Ylath's Snout said:

Stannis is a high risk, high reward pick. Siding with him would result in a lot of tension along the Reach and Stormland borders. So regarding Elia and co, Stannis was fighting on Robert's side during the war but he was trying to defend his home and wasn't directly involved with the killings. Again I could see Doran being willing to let Stannis live if he could get his revenge unopposed The best hope here is for Stannis to kick some ass in the middle of The Seven Kingdoms while the Martells, the mannis-loyal lords of the Reach and Stormlands tie down Renly's forces. This is very iffy but it might work especially after the shadowbaby when the Tyrells and a lot of Stormlords were unsure of where to turn and might be swayed to Stannis side. So Stannis is hitched and unlikely to dump his wife anytime soon buuut Shireen is a big deal. If Stannis becomes king he seems dead set on Shireen inheriting the throne. Queen Shireen holding the Iron Throne with a Martell husband would be a huge win for the Dornish culture of equality.  Then there is the problem of Stannis following the Red God. This might bring a ton of problems during the peace if King Stannis isn't willing to protect the worship of the Seven and Old Gods. There is a long tradition of some form of religious freedom in the Seven Kingdoms so maybe having a moderate R'hllor worshiper as a king could workout but I wouldn't be my prize winning Godswood on it.

Well, I think hodorisfaclessman had the best plan. With Dorne invading the Tyrells to keep them busy while he let Stannis take King's Landing. So far in the thread that seems to be the best idea if it can be put into action. Mellisandre and the Red God could be a problem to that alliance, but I don't see Stannis letting religion of all thinks crush his kingdom... he is the closest think to a atheist in the books.

 

On 8/8/2018 at 8:20 PM, Ylath's Snout said:

Robb so I am not gonna lie, this is my subjective favorit for Doran to back but lets to stay a bit objective.

Sure Ned was in many way if not responsible Elia's death then at least for setting the stage. Maybe Doran wanted him dead but I am unsure and Robb isn't Ned. Also I suspect he is totally down with offing Lannisters and doing horrible things to the Mountain. The whole revenge thing doesn't seem like it would be a problem for this alliance. Army-wise The Dornish could raid in the Reach and Stormlands to sapp Renly's, Stannis' or Joff/Tommen's strength while Robb tears it up in the northern theater-of-war. Bigger than that would be if the Dornish Navy (or a navy the could hire from Essos) could start fighting the Ironborn in the North. Cutting off supply-lines, attack underman castles in the Iron Island, Retake ports in the North or just ferry the Northern army back to throw in Ironborn out would all be hugely helpful to Robb in securing his realm. So port-war politics is a mixed bag, is most reasonable scenarios Robb will marry a Frey or Jeyne Westerling. Neither of them great for the Martell, but by no means as bad as a Reacher queen.

(Maybe The Martell's could offer to have Dornish nobles marry a bagful or two Frey-bastards and introduce Robb to contraceptives so he is free for marriage but.. ehh that seems like less "a plausible alt-timeline" and more like set-up for a Robb/Arianne fanfic.)

The two potential big wins would be: 1 As the Starks lack Andal allies outside of the Tully, that would be pretty bussy post-war, so King Robb would have to rely a lot the Martells for advise and political clout in keeping the Iron Throne. This might allow the Dornish so push for reform based on Dornish-law across the Kingdoms. 2 Assuming Sansa is found and her marriage annulled then Doran could push the Starks to adopt Dornish laws of inheritance and have her marry Quentin or Trystain. Pulling that all off seems like a very hard thing to do but spreading Dornish law, getting a Martell Lord consort in Winterfell and maybe a Martell queen seems like a pretty big reward. Much better than scheming and plotting just to hand the throne back to the targs.

 

Robb was also my favorite king in the war.

But the only think that they have in common is the hate of the Lannisters. A match between Edmure and Arianne or Sansa and Quentyn could help to keep the alliance together, because honestly, Dorne doesn't need Robb to gain it's independence, and they seems to have no desire for such think. Robb taking the Iron throne would be even more weird and out of character.

One of the thinks I never understood was why Royce was still pressuring Lysa to support Robb even though he become a rebbel and was trying to break the kingdom apart. I loved Robb , but the only other faction that was trying to do such a thing was the Greyjoys and Balon was dumb enough to throw it all away. That decision kind of let him out of allies.

 

[Ylath's Snout]

@Arthur Peres Thanks for the response.

5 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

I have to give you credit just for considering the possibility. Balon was so dumb that even if someone tried to swear fealty to him he might turn the guy into a thrall. I never considered him a option.

Balon just acted as a spoiler for Robb more or less. Although sending the hostage to negotiate with the man you took him isn't a great move in any world.

5 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

If Oberyn was in Renly's camp, after the death of Renly, what do you think he would do with the messagers of the Lannisters? Could he sabotage the alliance between the Tyrells and the Lannisters?

Maybe he could but I don't know if that could be permanent. The Tyrells siding with Stannis after picking Renly is a pick awkward 

6 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Mellisandre and the Red God could be a problem to that alliance, but I don't see Stannis letting religion of all thinks crush his kingdom... he is the closest think to a atheist in the books.

Melisandre is a source of trouble for any and all non-R'hllor allies Stannis has. If Stannis won she might be a a real headache.

6 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Robb taking the Iron throne would be even more weird and out of character.

Yeah but if he had beaten the Lannister wouldn't his lord put pressure him to keep on going? He does seem to have had a problem controlling his own success.

6 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

One of the thinks I never understood was why Royce was still pressuring Lysa to support Robb even though he become a rebbel and was trying to break the kingdom apart.

Ned used some of his Ned magic on the Vale Lords growing up. He did spend a lot of time in the Vale so it feels reasonable to assume that he has plenty of people there that like him enough to want revenge for him.

Also the Vale is so secure that you just need to guard the Gates into the place. The rest of the army can go out to fight and plunder pretty risk free.

[Arthur Peres]

12 hours ago, Ylath's Snout said:

@Arthur Peres Thanks for the response.

I should be the one thanking you. You seems to have put much more though on this topic than I had.

12 hours ago, Ylath's Snout said:

Balon just acted as a spoiler for Robb more or less. Although sending the hostage to negotiate with the man you took him isn't a great move in any world.

I get your point, but most lords would take that as a demonstration of good will. I mean, they interests are the same (break free from the Iron Throne), Theon was Balon's heir and Robb's friend, they should have been natural allies. Even Asha understands it later on and her plan for the kingsmoot is pretty much the deal that Robb gave Balon.

12 hours ago, Ylath's Snout said:

Maybe he could but I don't know if that could be permanent. The Tyrells siding with Stannis after picking Renly is a pick awkward 

Almost all the lord that declared for Stannis had sided with Renly before, it would just be as weird as when they sided with Joffrey after.

Oberyn botching the deal by killing the mensager does not necessary turns the Tyrells into Stannis support either, just burn a bridge between they and the Lannisters, like Loras did when he imprisoned Stannis mensager and Tarly killed the Florents in the camp.