How much could Dorne influence in the war of the 5 kings?

[Arthur Peres]

9 minutes ago, hodorisfaclessman said:

To be fair theres a lot there that coulda went right that went wrong  with his and his brothers plotting, While you are right hes now in weaker position than ever a lot could have gone one way or another with his moves

 The biggest thing was the vipers vist to kl........ he may or may not have sucessfully posioned tywin and was a hairs breath from killing the mountain in a trial thus freeing tyrion and totaly causing havoc among the lannisters( tyrion wont wait hel strike back adap)  !!!!! I feel the vipers objective was always just that to wreck vengence as only a man of his intellegence  and skills could

 The viserys plot never went anywhere no but then he didnt expect viserys to be so stupid 

 And the final plot with poor quentyn again could have borne fruit it simply dies due to circumstance 

 

You are right his 'good cop' routine to the vipers bad cop almost ends in a coup and thats his major blunder...his daughter and the snakes are very capable and public figures having them on board would have been much better

 

He would significant increase his chances of sucess if he changed the tasks of Quentyn and Oberyn. 

Doran is a poor ruler, that put the right people to the wrong mission.

[Arthur Peres]

1 hour ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

They still have a seat on the council, and actually Cersei wants the master of arms of the Red Keep to be Dornish as well.

you're right. thanks for the correction.

[hodorisfaclessman]

13 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

He would significant increase his chances of sucess if he changed the tasks of Quentyn and Oberyn. 

Doran is a poor ruler, that put the right people to the wrong mission.

Huh? Quentyn to assasinate  tywin and fight the mountain etc? 

[Arthur Peres]

11 minutes ago, hodorisfaclessman said:

Huh? Quentyn to assasinate  tywin and fight the mountain etc? 

No. Lol.

Quentyn to keep an eye on Kings Landing and report back to Doran, without risking to much.

I do not belive that Oberyn was trying to poison Tywin, and I consider becoming Tyrion's champion during the trial a reckless decision.

[John Suburbs]

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

I don't understand you point.

So Correct me if I'm wrong, but your argument was that, by staying away from the fight, they now will have a way inside to the Lannisters, but they are now out of the small concil, Cersei is trying to kill Tristan to end the betrothal and push the dornish even far away from the crow, they have no allies in the realm and Doran is losing face at each turn.

I always thought that the whole Targeryan restoration of Doran was more like a means to a end (revenge) letting him in a good position in the process as a bonus.

They stayed away from the fight, but they were not neutral during the war. They were aligned with House Lannister. This allowed them to have a stake in the outcome, but not at the risk to their own military strength. The Dornish army sat on the Boneway for the duration, ready for action only if it became necessary.

Fortunately, they weren't needed, particularly after Tywin teamed up with Tyrells. A Dornish army added to that mix would have created more problems than it solved, and it was completely unnecessary because the combined Tyrell/Lannister forces were more than adequate to defeat Stannis and save the city.

So for essentially doing nothing, Doran was able to arrange for a key marriage for his son, gaining a Lannister hostage in the bargain, get a seat on the small council and a couple of other things. Now, they are able to have a presence inside the Red Keep, which provides all sorts of opportunities to exact their revenge. They are not out of the small council: Lady Nym is heading to KL to take her father's seat.

Not everything the Doran set in motion is working out, of course. He doesn't have dragons, and his son is dead (or is he? ). But in terms of his military posture during the war, it was pretty crafty.

 

[hodorisfaclessman]

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

No. Lol.

Quentyn to keep an eye on Kings Landing and report back to Doran, without risking to much.

I do not belive that Oberyn was trying to poison Tywin, and I consider becoming Tyrion's champion during the trial a reckless decision.

Hmm he doesnt strike me as the sharpest tool and doran might have known that.....prob been another ned at court

I think he was hence he and dorans good cop bad cop routine  , the viper couldnt have known the trial would occur so i supsect his original  plan was to posion tywin then when accused (due to his rep) ask for a trial by combat as was his right as a lord and thus with his posioned blade guarantee gregors death as well...then adjusted on the fly

As it turns out he may have already posioned tywin then jumped at his chance to end ser gregor and thus set up tyrion vs cersei in a final showdown, posioning his blade to hedge his bets

The added nuance is this fits doran and probably the vipers attitudes on war being evil and children suffering nicely.....thus they only place themselves in harms way for their personal revenge mission before risking open war. It also eliminates the chances of tywin and the mountain escaping justice as in war both may survive and return to casterly rock safe and out of striking range to the viper

[Ylath's Snout]

So here is my take, Doran seems to be slowly but steadily chasing the dreams of revengeance and Targaryen restoration. Him dragging the war out and keeping incompetents like Cersei and Joff in power make sense from that point of view. It saves Dornish lives and weakens the Seven Kingdoms while Dany, Aegon or both get ready to invade.

So for Doran to get involved he has to assume that any shot of a Targ restoration dies with Viserys. Dany is a lone 13(?) year widow somewhere in the Grass Sea and he might not have heard of Aegon.

Joff this is what happens during the book but I feel it is safe to say that it was only a ploy to gain advantages for down the line when Doran plans to stab some backs. Joff is by this point fairly mad to anyone bothering to keep an eye on him so that is a bad start. Add to that the fact that his is closely related to both Tywin and Robert making him unlikely to be okay with all the payback the Dornish wanna deal out. Also he is married to a Tyrell girl so securing his rule would empower rivals and block of the tradition Martell move of marrying into power, aka doing a Habsburg. That said in the books this alliance seems to have helped the Lannisters a fair deal so I assume the same is true if it was genuine. 

Balon he is a raper and a slaver that worships some really screwy god. Also his main goal seam to be upsetting Ned ghost more than anything. The one thing maybe that could get Doran's inner Rhoynar excited about Balon is that Asha is his preferred heir so back him might result in a ruling queen of the seven kingdom (with a Martell husband of course) down the line. But all the other things about the Ironborn will probably outweigh this. Assuming it happens for some reason this alliance would offer two, maybe three things for the Ironborn: 1 An secure staging ground to attack the Reach and Stormland through as well as another army to tag along for the fun. 2 More "friendly" ports to resupply and dump loot in. This could allow for raids over a wider area resulting sapped moral and army strength as enemy lords have to return to their own lands or allow the Ironborn unopposed raiding. 3 If the Dornish fleet is substantial enough (or their contacts in Essos can acquire the needed sellsails) then the Ironborn might may a play to naval dominance by taking out the Redwyne and Royal fleets. Sure Balon haven't wronged the Dornish directly but siding with him and his slaving ways would go down like a depth charge in a kiddie pool.

Renly in some ways I think his is the best pick for Dorne out of the three Baratheons vying for the throne. He really didn't have anything to do with what happened to Elia or her kids at all. So unless Doran is feeling way more revengeful that my impression of him is than I don't think he actually wants to kill Renly unless he has to. Sure he is hitched to a Tyrell and from a dynastic or political point of view that is very bad for Martell ambitions it is actually great for winning the damn war. If there was a Renly-Tyrell-Martell pact then they would have much of Westeros south of King's Landing without fighting a single battle. Sure there are some Stormlords and the Florents to deal with but without the threat of Dornish attacks then I assume those pockets of resistance could be dealt with one way or another. The big problem is of course the shadowbaby. Unless the Martell pact somehow results in Stannis dying or his army deserting him enmass then I assume that Renly and Stannis still would meet and we know how things go from there. The big problem with this alliance is that the Martells wouldn't stand a lot to gain. Renly is hitched and he has enough support from Andal lords that pushing for some Rhoynar inspired reforms will be hard. Maybe a Arianne/Willas match is the best they can hope for and that's not a lot. (this is all assuming Doran get's of his gaut-y butt before Renly gets m-d-k'd)

Stannis is a high risk, high reward pick. Siding with him would result in a lot of tension along the Reach and Stormland borders. So regarding Elia and co, Stannis was fighting on Robert's side during the war but he was trying to defend his home and wasn't directly involved with the killings. Again I could see Doran being willing to let Stannis live if he could get his revenge unopposed The best hope here is for Stannis to kick some ass in the middle of The Seven Kingdoms while the Martells, the mannis-loyal lords of the Reach and Stormlands tie down Renly's forces. This is very iffy but it might work especially after the shadowbaby when the Tyrells and a lot of Stormlords were unsure of where to turn and might be swayed to Stannis side. So Stannis is hitched and unlikely to dump his wife anytime soon buuut Shireen is a big deal. If Stannis becomes king he seems dead set on Shireen inheriting the throne. Queen Shireen holding the Iron Throne with a Martell husband would be a huge win for the Dornish culture of equality.  Then there is the problem of Stannis following the Red God. This might bring a ton of problems during the peace if King Stannis isn't willing to protect the worship of the Seven and Old Gods. There is a long tradition of some form of religious freedom in the Seven Kingdoms so maybe having a moderate R'hllor worshiper as a king could workout but I wouldn't be my prize winning Godswood on it.

Robb so I am not gonna lie, this is my subjective favorit for Doran to back but lets to stay a bit objective.

Sure Ned was in many way if not responsible Elia's death then at least for setting the stage. Maybe Doran wanted him dead but I am unsure and Robb isn't Ned. Also I suspect he is totally down with offing Lannisters and doing horrible things to the Mountain. The whole revenge thing doesn't seem like it would be a problem for this alliance. Army-wise The Dornish could raid in the Reach and Stormlands to sapp Renly's, Stannis' or Joff/Tommen's strength while Robb tears it up in the northern theater-of-war. Bigger than that would be if the Dornish Navy (or a navy the could hire from Essos) could start fighting the Ironborn in the North. Cutting off supply-lines, attack underman castles in the Iron Island, Retake ports in the North or just ferry the Northern army back to throw in Ironborn out would all be hugely helpful to Robb in securing his realm. So port-war politics is a mixed bag, is most reasonable scenarios Robb will marry a Frey or Jeyne Westerling. Neither of them great for the Martell, but by no means as bad as a Reacher queen.

(Maybe The Martell's could offer to have Dornish nobles marry a bagful or two Frey-bastards and introduce Robb to contraceptives so he is free for marriage but.. ehh that seems like less "a plausible alt-timeline" and more like set-up for a Robb/Arianne fanfic.)

The two potential big wins would be: 1 As the Starks lack Andal allies outside of the Tully, that would be pretty bussy post-war, so King Robb would have to rely a lot the Martells for advise and political clout in keeping the Iron Throne. This might allow the Dornish so push for reform based on Dornish-law across the Kingdoms. 2 Assuming Sansa is found and her marriage annulled then Doran could push the Starks to adopt Dornish laws of inheritance and have her marry Quentin or Trystain. Pulling that all off seems like a very hard thing to do but spreading Dornish law, getting a Martell Lord consort in Winterfell and maybe a Martell queen seems like a pretty big reward. Much better than scheming and plotting just to hand the throne back to the targs.

TLDR: If you wanna win the war and just secure your revenge as Doran, go for Renly. If you are willing to risk more to push Martell/Dornish influence go for Stannis or Robb. Joff and Balon are non-starters unless you plan to betraying them later.

[Frey Kings]

Doran should've marched separately against the Lannisters at the outbreak. Didn't have to join Robb nor Stannis nor Renly. 

 

"Stay out of our way, we are only at war with the Lannisters, ok?"

 

[Ylath's Snout]

3 hours ago, Frey Kings said:

Doran should've marched separately against the Lannisters at the outbreak.

I don't think the Dornish army by itself is enough to do much to the Lannisters in the Crownlands or Westerlands.

[Frey Kings]

3 minutes ago, Ylath's Snout said:

I don't think the Dornish army by itself is enough to do much to the Lannisters in the Crownlands or Westerlands.

 

Being hit from the South from the Dornish while they're busy fighting Robb & Stannis. Was the perfect time. 

 

Too bad Doran was too scared of Tywin. 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

13 hours ago, LindsayLohan said:

Doran may not have seen Viserys, but Doran's uncle Lewyn was in the Kingsguard, and he was subject to the same level of involvement as Selmy.  If Viserys was really showing signs of madness as a youth, Doran would have known.

We simply don't know that. There are of course ways he could have known, and it’s also perfectly plausible that he had no idea. Lewyn may not have noticed (just because Barristan did doesn’t mean everyone did), or perhaps he and Doran didn’t talk much, or maybe he didn't consider it honourable as a Kingsguard to share such information about a member of the royal family. We have very little information about Lewyn and his character, and little to none about his relationship with Doran to say definitively that that is what happened.   We just don’t know.

Also, people nudging each other and muttering “that little shit is taking after his nutty father” is not the same as everyone jumping to the same conclusion that he’s going to turn into a psychopath when he grows up.

[Ylath's Snout]

6 minutes ago, Frey Kings said:

Being hit from the South from the Dornish while they're busy fighting Robb & Stannis. Was the perfect time. 

 

Too bad Doran was too scared of Tywin. 

Well IMHO the Dornish can't lay siege to King's Landing. Their supply-line would go through a lot of land held by Stannis and/or Renly making a protracted siege liable to fail. Trying to assault the city with a smaller army than Stannis had at the Blackwater seems like it would only end with a lot of dead Dornish and not much more.

I am sure that the Dornish army could really ruin Tywin's day but if the Dornish just go after the Lannisters without coordinating Renly, Stannis or Robb then I don't think it would be anywhere near as effective as it could be. Devastating attacks from multiple sides don't just happen they take a lot of coordination and planning. Look at the Battles at Summerhall, the three loyalist armies were uncoordinated to Robert could beat them one after the other.

Finally the Martell's would not have a lot of say in post-wot5k Westeros if they refuse to pick a side other than "not-Lannister". After all there are no mutual obligations between the winner and Doran if Doran did make any promises before the peace. Just getting your revenge while spilling all the manpower and gold taking King's Landing and/or The Rock would take would be wasteful in the extreme.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

4 hours ago, Frey Kings said:

Doran should've marched separately against the Lannisters at the outbreak. Didn't have to join Robb nor Stannis nor Renly. 

 

"Stay out of our way, we are only at war with the Lannisters, ok?"

That was (with a few details changed) essentially Robb's strategy.

It didn't work out well.

[Frey Kings]

7 minutes ago, Ylath's Snout said:

Well IMHO the Dornish can't lay siege to King's Landing. Their supply-line would go through a lot of land held by Stannis and/or Renly making a protracted siege liable to fail. Trying to assault the city with a smaller army than Stannis had at the Blackwater seems like it would only end with a lot of dead Dornish and not much more.

I am sure that the Dornish army could really ruin Tywin's day but if the Dornish just go after the Lannisters without coordinating Renly, Stannis or Robb then I don't think it would be anywhere near as effective as it could be. Devastating attacks from multiple sides don't just happen they take a lot of coordination and planning. Look at the Battles at Summerhall, the three loyalist armies were uncoordinated to Robert could beat them one after the other.

Finally the Martell's would not have a lot of say in post-wot5k Westeros if they refuse to pick a side other than "not-Lannister". After all there are no mutual obligations between the winner and Doran if Doran did make any promises before the peace. Just getting your revenge while spilling all the manpower and gold taking King's Landing and/or The Rock would take would be wasteful in the extreme.

Doran was too chicken. He was too scared of Tywin. Its pretty pathetic. Everyone knows the Martells and the Lannisters have beef. A normal person would've expected the armies to fight... especially once the opportunity presented itself. They would've easily taken much of the vulnerable southern parts of the Westerlands with ease. Doran & Oberyn was dreaming day and night of all the ways to hurt Tywin and the Lannisters and they did... absolutely... nothing... 

THE END

[Frey Kings]

6 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

That was (with a few details changed) essentially Robb's strategy.

It didn't work out well.

I would've chopped Ned's head myself

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

2 minutes ago, Frey Kings said:

Doran was too chicken. He was too scared of Tywin.

We have no evidence that he was too scared of Tywin. Though I would suggest a healthy level of wariness of Tywin is a sign of intelligence rather than cowardice.

 

3 minutes ago, Frey Kings said:

Doran & Oberyn was dreaming day and night of all the ways to hurt Tywin and the Lannisters and they did... absolutely... nothing... 

Doran was playing a longer game. He wasn’t just interested in slapping Tywin around, but in bringing about his destruction and the Targaryen restoration. I doubt he would have been happy simply replacing the Lannisters with one of the Baratheons, which would have been the outcome of the approach you’re suggesting irrespective of his declared position.

You can disagree with Doran’s approach all you like, but the idea he stayed out the war because he was scared is just ridiculous. We know his aim was to wait it out until the Targaryens returned.

[Frey Kings]

3 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

We have no evidence that he was too scared of Tywin. Though I would suggest a healthy level of wariness of Tywin is a sign of intelligence rather than cowardice.

 

Doran was playing a longer game. He wasn’t just interested in slapping Tywin around, but in bringing about his destruction and the Targaryen restoration. I doubt he would have been happy simply replacing the Lannisters with one of the Baratheons, which would have been the outcome of the approach you’re suggesting irrespective of his declared position.

You can disagree with Doran’s approach all you like, but the idea he stayed out the war because he was scared is just ridiculous. We know his aim was to wait it out until the Targaryens returned.

The Long Game? lol. For close to 2 decades he wanted to get revenge. He watched Tywin bring his house from the slums to #1. And... he... did.... nothing... 

 

Tywin is clearly the winner. 

 

Yes he was scared. That's why he feared to act against Tywin,

 

As of all material released, Doran had no approach. Currently he is grooming his kids to rule and go on missions abroad. *Yawn*

 

 

P.S. On the Targaryen note, how are you going to say he's waiting for the Targaryens, thats like Robb saying "hmmm I better wait til the Vale Lords join in before I go down south" . The Martells aren't even die hard Targaryen fans. They wanted their very own to be on the throne.

 

Clearly he is a chicken and scared. 

 

But I didn't say coward (yet)

 

 

 

[Frey Kings]

Unbow. Unbent. Unbroken.

 

Except for the Lannisters...

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

6 minutes ago, Frey Kings said:

The Long Game? lol. For close to 2 decades he wanted to get revenge. He watched Tywin bring his house from the slums to #1. And... he... did.... nothing... 

Yes, taking a long time to win is the definition of “playing the long game”. Heedlessly charging into a war without even caring about the outcome is the opposite of that.

And he didn’t do nothing. He positioned himself outside the rival houses that he considered his enemies while they ruined each other, and quietly worked for the Targaryen restoration. You can disagree with that strategy, but it’s a perfectly valid one.

9 minutes ago, Frey Kings said:

Yes he was scared. That's why he feared to act against Tywin,

Any quotes to back that up? Just repeating it over and over again doesn't make it fact. It remains assertion.

10 minutes ago, Frey Kings said:

As of all material released, Doran had no approach. Currently he is grooming his kids to rule and go on missions abroad.

To form an alliance with the Targaryens, who he wants to see on the Iron Throne. It’s not like they’re being sent off for gap years.

 

11 minutes ago, Frey Kings said:

On the Targaryen note, how are you going to say he's waiting for the Targaryens, thats like Robb saying "hmmm I better wait til the Vale Lords join in before I go down south" .

No it's not. Robb's aim was simply to crush the Lannisters, and later independence. Doran's aim was the Targaryen restoration. Which means actually having Targaryen claimants is pretty central.

13 minutes ago, Frey Kings said:

The Martells aren't even die hard Targaryen fans.

All the Martells in history? No. But Doran has been working for the Targaryen restoration since Elia's death.

[Frey Kings]

Doran IS scared of Tywin. Tywin's list of accomplishments vs Doran's. For close to 2 decades he lost his chances to strike at Tywin. Doran has failed and failed miserably. 

How much could Dorne influence in the war of the 5 kings? Nothing when Doran is weak and afraid.