How much could Dorne influence in the war of the 5 kings?

[Ylath's Snout]

24 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

As many as ten thousand men. Doran could wreak havoc in Dornish marches, cross the Mander and sack Highgarden or go and siege Oldtown. He may even have decided to act with a little sense and proposed Arianne to Edmure. Dornish have historically went as north as Old Oak, why not go a few more hundreds of leagues and aid Robb in taking The Rock and Lann's port, also razing a few Reachmen castles and taking Highborn hostages along the way.

Considering that Renly's army is 50 thousand any sort of protracted siege in the Reach is going to be pretty risky.

[Arthur Peres]

7 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Dorne has always been alone, even after it married the Targaryens. They fought constantly with the stormlands and the reach in the old days, but IIRC they never aligned with one against the other, or with anyone else for that matter.

 The Dornish are weird. Nobody likes them. And it doesn't really matter what positions of strength his enemies are in, nobody can take Dorne, not even with dragons.

And I'm curious as to these positions of strength that the other houses are in. The Lannister/Tyrell alliance is all but sundered, with the Lanns barely hanging on to power in KL and Highgarden threatened by ironborn, King Robb is dead and his army destroyed, Stannis is trapped in the north with a frozen army...

 It seems to me that hardly anyone's plans are working out very well, except maybe Littlefinger's.

 

The north had similar history and they didn't even get the royal marriage, Dorne also follow the faith of the seven, they are more close to the other kingdoms than the north.

The Lannisters and the Tyrells now control the westerlands, the reach, stormlands and the riverlands the revolt of the north have ended, Stannis is defeated, LF brought the vale back to the fold. The IB are a minor issue at this point.

Compared to the situation at the end of the first book, the Lannister position is much better in shape. Cersei is crazy and will doom then all, but I don't think this is part of Doran's plan.

[Corvo the Crow]

9 hours ago, Ylath's Snout said:

Considering that Renly's army is 50 thousand any sort of protracted siege in the Reach is going to be pretty risky.

Renly is going northwards though and with an incredibly slow pace.

Now that you mentioned it, he left 10000 men at Highgarden. Exactly the same number of men Doran contributed in Bob's Rebellion

[hodorisfaclessman]

12 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

I do not see Doran as a big schemer.

He managed to alienate his own heir to the point she tried a coup, his plan cost him his brother and son, he is in a position so weak that he is afraid about being killed by his own niece. In 14 years he wasn't able to make a single alliance with other kingdoms. He trust to much on the Targeryan name, Viserys was by all purpose a beggar.

He gained a position at the small concil in KL and a betrothal that no one seems to want to keep and is destined to break.

Dorne still have a military force intact but now he is alone, and his enemies are back at a position of strenght.

in my judgement he lost far too much for very little gain.

Again his schemes could have gone the other way ....circumstance and luck (for exp the viper was soo close to victory )  plus we must remember he has a deeply held belief in war being evil and children always suffering hence he  and his brothers  intial moves at personal revenge are a surgical strike 

He did make a huge mistake keeping his daughter and the highly capable sand snakes out of it  true but the rest of his plans were solid and could easily have panned out and paid off huge

 

Now he didnt make many alliances 9ver the years true but bear in mind his position after the war ....for former allies the targs are gone and crownlands now infested by 3 groups of spies(varys,lf and cersei) ,the tryells are ancient enemies and willas maiming seems to have stirred up old hatreds (olenas and ellia almost starting mini war in kl) His enemies the lannisters are now married to a king famed for his temper and love of battle and many of the rebels are now all tied by bonds of marriage and kin!

His other allies in the rebellion were loyalist houses in regions now controled by his former enemies ,many of the riverlords brutaly punished for their treachery by tullys. 

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

The north had similar history and they didn't even get the royal marriage, Dorne also follow the faith of the seven, they are more close to the other kingdoms than the north.

The Lannisters and the Tyrells now control the westerlands, the reach, stormlands and the riverlands the revolt of the north have ended, Stannis is defeated, LF brought the vale back to the fold. The IB are a minor issue at this point.

Compared to the situation at the end of the first book, the Lannister position is much better in shape. Cersei is crazy and will doom then all, but I don't think this is part of Doran's plan.

All true, all true, but I think its disingenuous to say that the Lannisters and Tyrells control these territories and have accomplished the other things you mentioned. Dorne is an equal member of this alliance, which is why Oberyn has a council seat, attends Joffrey's wedding and sits in judgement of Tyrion alongside Mace and Tywin. So any gains shared by two players in this alliance should be shared by all.

The middle realms look down on both the north and Dorne for different reasons. The north are barely better than wildlings, worship strange gods and are uncivilized, while Dorne are a bunch of perverts, poisoners and cowards. So Dorne's position is stronger than it was at the beginning of the books as well: it is still considered an outcast, but at least it is aligned with the winning side and is enjoying the fruits of that alliance.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

18 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It seems to me that hardly anyone's plans are working out very well, except maybe Littlefinger's.

 

17 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

The Lannisters and the Tyrells now control the westerlands, the reach, stormlands and the riverlands the revolt of the north have ended, Stannis is defeated, LF brought the vale back to the fold. The IB are a minor issue at this point.

Obviously this isn’t scientific at all, but - Lords Paramount at the beginning of the series:

Ned Stark – Head chopped off.

Hoster Tully – Dead (of natural causes in fairness).

Jon Arryn – Poisoned.

Tywin Lannister – Shot on the crapper.

Mace Tyrell – Hand of the King.

Renly Baratheon – Shadowbabied.

Balon Greyjoy – Crab food.

Doran Martell – sore feet.

I think with the exception of Mace Tyrell (and I doubt his lucky streak will last for long), Doran seems to be doing pretty well.

More importantly, the problem for the Lannisters is that they won a pyric victory in the Wot5K. They seem like an increasingly spent force. The Tyrells are in better shape, but with the Ironborn attack and whatever is about to happen at Storms End, I think they also are going to be overextended, if not routed.

The two kingdoms that have remained untouched by war are the Vale and Dorne. They’re in a much greater position than any of the others going forward. If Littlefinger and Doran play their cards right, they’ll be potential powerbrokers.

[Angel Eyes]

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

 

Obviously this isn’t scientific at all, but - Lords Paramount at the beginning of the series:

Ned Stark – Head chopped off.

Hoster Tully – Dead (of natural causes in fairness).

Jon Arryn – Poisoned.

Tywin Lannister – Shot on the crapper.

Mace Tyrell – Hand of the King.

Renly Baratheon – Shadowbabied.

Balon Greyjoy – Crab food.

Doran Martell – sore feet.

I think with the exception of Mace Tyrell (and I doubt his lucky streak will last for long), Doran seems to be doing pretty well.

More importantly, the problem for the Lannisters is that they won a pyric victory in the Wot5K. They seem like an increasingly spent force. The Tyrells are in better shape, but with the Ironborn attack and whatever is about to happen at Storms End, I think they also are going to be overextended, if not routed.

The two kingdoms that have remained untouched by war are the Vale and Dorne. They’re in a much greater position than any of the others going forward. If Littlefinger and Doran play their cards right, they’ll be potential powerbrokers.

I believe that being a powerbroker is Littlefinger’s plan.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

4 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

I believe that being a powerbroker is Littlefinger’s plan.

Agreed. It's not quite Doras plan, but he's keeping his powder dry.

[John Suburbs]

6 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

 

Obviously this isn’t scientific at all, but - Lords Paramount at the beginning of the series:

Ned Stark – Head chopped off.

Hoster Tully – Dead (of natural causes in fairness).

Jon Arryn – Poisoned.

Tywin Lannister – Shot on the crapper.

Mace Tyrell – Hand of the King.

Renly Baratheon – Shadowbabied.

Balon Greyjoy – Crab food.

Doran Martell – sore feet.

I think with the exception of Mace Tyrell (and I doubt his lucky streak will last for long), Doran seems to be doing pretty well.

More importantly, the problem for the Lannisters is that they won a pyric victory in the Wot5K. They seem like an increasingly spent force. The Tyrells are in better shape, but with the Ironborn attack and whatever is about to happen at Storms End, I think they also are going to be overextended, if not routed.

The two kingdoms that have remained untouched by war are the Vale and Dorne. They’re in a much greater position than any of the others going forward. If Littlefinger and Doran play their cards right, they’ll be potential powerbrokers.

I think it's also important to remember that it's not always the strongest or smartest that wins the Game of Thrones, but the luckiest.

All hail King Hot Pie, the first of his name.

[Arthur Peres]

15 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

All true, all true, but I think its disingenuous to say that the Lannisters and Tyrells control these territories and have accomplished the other things you mentioned. Dorne is an equal member of this alliance, which is why Oberyn has a council seat, attends Joffrey's wedding and sits in judgement of Tyrion alongside Mace and Tywin. So any gains shared by two players in this alliance should be shared by all.

 The middle realms look down on both the north and Dorne for different reasons. The north are barely better than wildlings, worship strange gods and are uncivilized, while Dorne are a bunch of perverts, poisoners and cowards. So Dorne's position is stronger than it was at the beginning of the books as well: it is still considered an outcast, but at least it is aligned with the winning side and is enjoying the fruits of that alliance.

 

I get what you're saying and I do not disagree much on it.

But wouldn't he get the treatment of "Late Prince Doran"? After all he never send a single men to help the fight. He is not in the same position in the alliance of the others 2 parties.

Also his original plan was to restaure the Targeryan into power. I don't think it would be realistic to do that without a war.

It's just hard to imagine a moment where both the Lannisters and the Baratheons would be weaker than in the start of the war of five kings.

[John Suburbs]

10 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

I get what you're saying and I do not disagree much on it.

But wouldn't he get the treatment of "Late Prince Doran"? After all he never send a single men to help the fight. He is not in the same position in the alliance of the others 2 parties.

Also his original plan was to restaure the Targeryan into power. I don't think it would be realistic to do that without a war.

It's just hard to imagine a moment where both the Lannisters and the Baratheons would be weaker than in the start of the war of five kings.

He wasn't asked to join the fight. Tyrion had him stage his men in the boneway as a way to cause Stannis to think twice about marching on KL. And even when he did march, they never brought the Dornish into the fight for two reasons. First, they started working on the Tyrell plan right away and adding Dornish to that mix would be problematic, and secondly, they didn't want a situation in which both Stannis' army and the Dornish army were fighting at King's Landing. Even if the Dornish are nominally on your side, well, accidents happen in battles, as Elia and the children prove.

So in the end, the Martells are full members of the winning alliance and gained significant leverage in the emerging government, all without losing a single soldier. Not bad, IMO.

His original plan went bust as soon as Willem Darry died and the kids were turned out of Braavos. And even if this match was agreed to, there's no way they could declare it openly without drawing the wrath of the IT onto Sunspear, so in the end it would have been a lot of watching and waiting.

Also, it's always been my impression that restoring the Targs was only a means to an end. The real goal is revenge for Elia and her children. So in that vein, there was no way they could get that through open war with the new Baratheon regime, nor could they do it by simply breaking with the Iron Throne. So the best solution was to swear fealty to Robert and wait for an opportunity to arise.

As for Lannister and Baratheon weakness, Tywin is dead, Joffrey is dead, Kevan is dead, Lancel is all but dead, Tommen's grip on power is extremely tenuous, Cersei has been shamed in front of the realm, Jaime is no longer the greatest swordsman in the land and Tyrion is an accused murderer in exile. Plus, their hold on the north looks about to crumble, regardless of a Stannis victory or defeat, and the Riverlands are about to launch into full-on civil war with the death of Walder. So it seems to me that the Lannisters are in a pretty bad spot. Meanwhile, Robert Baratheon is dead, Renly is dead, Stannis is freezing and starving in the north, Tommen may very well lose his crown depending on the trial (and Robert Strong), and Myrcella is earless and under the control of the Martells. So neither Lanns nor Barths look exceedingly strong at the moment.

Meanwhile, the Martells still have an unbloodied army, the heir to Sunspear is alive and healthy and about to hook up with the purported Targeryen heir -- and frankly, the book on Quentyn is not completely closed because there is still a chance that he is actually alive, although I agree that it was a horrible plan to begin with. Plus, they have three kickass assassins heading to KL, and a marriage to princess Myrcella to boot. So all in all, I don't see how anyone can claim that the Martell's position is any weaker than anyone else's, except maybe Littlefinger's.

[Arthur Peres]

I'm very stuborn person, but you conviced me.

Even though, I'm still think that this was more due to luck than anything else.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On ‎8‎/‎8‎/‎2018 at 7:52 AM, Angel Eyes said:

And what of the North? What are Doran’s opinions on the Starks?

Very high since Eddard was the one who laid the deaths of Elia and her children at the feet of Tywin , Gregor and Lorch and wanted them to pay .

[The Sleeper]

Given the geography, Dorne could only affect Renly or Stannis. Renly represents the Reach and the Stormlands which is are traditional enemies. Stannis was at the other side of Robert's rebellion and it's not like he asked them to join him.

If on the other hand they attacked either of them it would turn out to the benefit of the Lannisters. 

They could affect the war but had no good prospects for doing so. 

[honorable men]

Dorne can barely muster up 10k troops

Should've been rule by Yronwood or Daynes

 

Daynes would wreck the Martells 

 

Oh yea Doran's master plan is coming, just wait for...

[Arthur Peres]

3 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Given the geography, Dorne could only affect Renly or Stannis. Renly represents the Reach and the Stormlands which is are traditional enemies. Stannis was at the other side of Robert's rebellion and it's not like he asked them to join him.

If on the other hand they attacked either of them it would turn out to the benefit of the Lannisters. 

They could affect the war but had no good prospects for doing so. 

I liked the idea from hodorisfaclessman to attack the Reach and stop the Tyrells to rescue KL.

3 hours ago, honorable men said:

Dorne can barely muster up 10k troops

Should've been rule by Yronwood or Daynes

Daynes would wreck the Martells 

Oh yea Doran's master plan is coming, just wait for...

I could be wrong, but I though that Dorne was just as strong as the North or the Vale.

[The Sleeper]

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

I liked the idea from hodorisfaclessman to attack the Reach and stop the Tyrells to rescue KL.

I could be wrong, but I though that Dorne was just as strong as the North or the Vale.

Yeah, that would fuck up the Lannisters pretty bad. If they attacked the Reach after Renly died but before they started to march, it would have caused the Lords of the Reach to turn back and cost the Lannisters King's Landing. As they were ostensibly Lannisters allies they could cost them the alliance with the Tyrells. 

There is a problem with this, though. Given the time lag in communications they probably have a very small window to arrange that, if it exists at all. And also they gain nothing from it materially. They also run the risk of the army of the Reach catching them and annihilating them. 

Dorne deliberately exaggerates their numbers to avoid attack. They are by considerable margin the least populous of the kingdoms and the weakest militarily. 

[Arthur Peres]

12 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

Dorne deliberately exaggerates their numbers to avoid attack. They are by considerable margin the least populous of the kingdoms and the weakest militarily. 

Yeah, I know that, but I was refering to this quote from GRRM.

Quick question - We have seen all of the seven kingdoms in action in one way or another except Dorne and the Vale. I am trying to get an understanding of the various strengths of the different realms. When Robb calls the Northern Banners he gathers a host of about 18 thousand men. How do Dorne and the Vale compare to this (I don't expect numbers, just general feeling)

I'd say these three kingdoms were roughly equal in the force they could assemble... but the north is much bigger, so it takes longer for an army to gather. And life is harsher there as well, so lords and smallfolk both need to think carefully before beating those plowshares into swords.

[John Suburbs]

On ‎8‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 1:04 PM, Arthur Peres said:

I'm very stuborn person, but you conviced me.

Even though, I'm still think that this was more due to luck than anything else.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying it's game-over and the Martells have won. We only have to look at the Starks and Lannisters to see how quickly you can fall from the top.

But given the situation that Doran Martell found himself at the end of RR and at the start of the Wot5K, I think he played it pretty well, except for the boondoggle to Merreen.

[Arthur Peres]

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying it's game-over and the Martells have won. We only have to look at the Starks and Lannisters to see how quickly you can fall from the top.

 But given the situation that Doran Martell found himself at the end of RR and at the start of the Wot5K, I think he played it pretty well, except for the boondoggle to Merreen.

I got it.

And you manage to change my mind about the dornish being weaker. They gained castles in the dornish marchs, a position in the small concil and a royal betrothal(even though none of the parties want it to come to marriage) after not losing a single men to the war.

Also you demostrated well that the Lannisters are much more weaker with Tywin, Kevan and Joffrey, dead, Tyrion running for his life and Cersei mad in control of a 8 years old king.

But even then I still think that this was more due to luck than a master plan. Doran just took the bone that was throw at him (myrcella and the castles in the dornish march), he never planned any of this, but he kept his strength intact.

I still think that was a dumb movie to send Quentyn to Dany, and I still think his original plan (Viserys) was awful. Sending Oberyn to KL was botch, but I can't blame Doran for Oberyn getting involved in Tyrion's trial.