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Mathis Rowan is the Betrayer


LucionLannister

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Randyll Tarly has been setup from very early to turn his cloak against Mace, both out of spite and ambition

Rowan a bit less so, but also as a Targaryen supporter may decide to support Aegon.

So, both are possible traitors.

The problem I have with this is that assumes that Mace Tyrell will support the Lannisters to the bitter end, so their bannermen will abandon him. I think it will not happen that way.

If you read carefully Kevan's ADWD epilogue you will note that both Tyrell and Tarly are already tired of the Lannisters and given half a chance they will jump into the next boat quite quickly. For example, their blunt dismissal of both Aegon and Daenerys as threats is suspicious. They look too overconfident for my taste.

Now, for how much longer the Tyrell-Lannister alliance will endure?

The key of the alliance is Tommen-Margeary marriage. But the lives of both of them are in serious danger. We all think that Tommen will not last very long in TWOW, Varys may kill him to shatter the alliance and maybe free Margeary for Aegon. And Cersei wants Margeary dead, which also may happens early in the books, maybe in answer to Tommen's death.

In any of these cases, Mace goes over to Aegon, either out of ambitions or out of vengeance. Given that Rowan is a Targaryen supporter, he badly could betray Mace on this and will probably support him.

This leaves Tarly, betraying Mace to support... Cersei?

So, yes, there is a problem here.

 

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2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

The problem I have with this is that assumes that Mace Tyrell will support the Lannisters to the bitter end, so their bannermen will abandon him. I think it will not happen that way.

If you read carefully Kevan's ADWD epilogue you will note that both Tyrell and Tarly are already tired of the Lannisters and given half a chance they will jump into the next boat quite quickly. For example, their blunt dismissal of both Aegon and Daenerys as threats is suspicious. They look too overconfident for my taste.

Two things. First one, reading the prologue of AFFC and the epilogue of ADWD raises even more questions with regard to Mace's general attitude. He may not have known anything about Aegon until he landed, but he would have known the rumors of Dany and her dragons as early as the prologue of AFFC. (We know Doran had that confirmation before Oberyn traveled to King's Landing). 

Kevan also thinks to himself that Mace assisted the Targs well after the rebellion was over. The only thing I can think of is that he may have helped them escape from Dragonstone.

Second thing. What are the chances that Mace will be removed from power by his own sons once they have dealt with the the ironborn on the Shields? I think that maybe we should start looking to his sons.

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28 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

Kevan also thinks to himself that Mace assisted the Targs well after the rebellion was over. The only thing I can think of is that he may have helped them escape from Dragonstone.

The Tyrell dipped their banners only once Ned arrived with an army to Storm's End. At that time Robert was already sitting in the Iron Throne, so the Rebellion was over. I don't think they assisted the remaining Targaryens to escape from Dragonstone. Robert would not have been pleased.

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 Second thing. What are the chances that Mace will be removed from power by his own sons once they have dealt with the the ironborn on the Shields? I think that maybe we should start looking to his sons.

Pretty dim. The portray of the Tyrell family is that they really love each other and work together, according to their own positions and within their own capabilities. See Joffrey's assassination as a prime example.

Edit: The Ironborn threat won't be confined to the Shields (actually they have already attacked the Arbor) and will be very difficult to deal with. It is very probably that this conflict will precipitate the alliance of the Reach with Aegon.

 

 

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I really don't see Tarly as a potential traitor. The man is a good soldier, yes, but there is no sign he is good plotter - or even cares to be one. And it is not that Mace doesn't reward good service or that nobody recognizes his worth. In fact, everybody knows he won the Battle of Ashford, not Mace, so that's not really an issue.

And depending on events in KL chances are not that bad that both Mace and Tarly will eventually end up in camp Aegon - simply because they cannot possibly work with the Lannisters any longer.

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53 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

The Tyrell dipped their banners only once Ned arrived with an army to Storm's End. At that time Robert was already sitting in the Iron Throne, so the Rebellion was over. I don't think they assisted the remaining Targaryens to escape from Dragonstone. Robert would not have been pleased.

Just going with what seems to be suggested by Kevan Lannister in ADWD. If he says that Mace was still loyal to Targaryen and assisted in some way, then there could be a kernel of truth to this. 

55 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Edit: The Ironborn threat won't be confined to the Shields (actually they have already attacked the Arbor) and will be very difficult to deal with. It is very probably that this conflict will precipitate the alliance of the Reach with Aegon.

I'm aware of that. Garlan (and Willas) were waiting on the Redwyne fleet to go to the Shields and Oldtown's protection has fallen to their grandfather and uncles. 

57 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Pretty dim. The portray of the Tyrell family is that they really love each other and work together, according to their own positions and within their own capabilities. See Joffrey's assassination as a prime example.

How aware are the children of what Olenna did, though? I would think that she would have kept everyone out of that scheme. And loving families don't have to be of one mind. Do the brothers agree with their father passing Margaery around like that from one king to another? Mace married his daughter off to a rebel and two bastards and became Hand of a bastard king. 

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19 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

How aware are the children of what Olenna did, though? I would think that she would have kept everyone out of that scheme. And loving families don't have to be of one mind.

They had to be aware. Olenna was in charge of the scheme but there is no chance that Mace didn't know about it. Also Margeary had to know, otherwise you risk poisoning your own beloved granddaughter.

19 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

Do the brothers agree with their father passing Margaery around like that from one king to another? Mace married his daughter off to a rebel and two bastards and became Hand of a bastard king.  

It was Loras-Renly who came with the scheme at first, to make of Margeary a concubine for Robert, with the approval of Mace, of course. Once she is there, Renly reveals the twincest to Robert and with Tyrells support they root out the Lannisters.

There must be disagreements of course, but whilst the Tyrells are not as brutal as the Lannisters and they display political correctness to the outsiders, they show a certain lack of scruples. See, how they completely shun Sansa after she was married to Tyrion.

 

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16 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

It was Loras-Renly who came with the scheme at first, to make of Margeary a concubine for Robert, with the approval of Mace, of course. Once she is there, Renly reveals the twincest to Robert and with Tyrells support they root out the Lannisters.

Loras-Renly part to make Margaery Robert's new queen/concubine/whatever, yes, I agree. Renly was not aware of the twincest, though. He seems pretty surprised by it during his parlay with Stannis and even asks Catelyn if she thinks it's true.

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3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I really don't see Tarly as a potential traitor. The man is a good soldier, yes, but there is no sign he is good plotter - or even cares to be one. And it is not that Mace doesn't reward good service or that nobody recognizes his worth. In fact, everybody knows he won the Battle of Ashford, not Mace, so that's not really an issue.

And depending on events in KL chances are not that bad that both Mace and Tarly will eventually end up in camp Aegon - simply because they cannot possibly work with the Lannisters any longer.

Lords Matthis Rowan, Randyll Tarly, and Paxter Redwyne are described as Lord Mace Tyrell''s oldest friends, and while we have seen shocking betrayals in this saga, the good ones have been foreshadowed, and I don't believe we have seen any foreshadowing of deliberate betrayals by Mace's oldest friends (with the possible exception of Redwyne).

On the other hand, I think the author has hinted that these three houses will stand with Aegon, so I am thinking the lords or heirs of these three houses will have little choice.

As to Rowan, I suspect he has already been taken by Aegon and compelled to turn his cloak.

As to Tarly, I think he and Dickon will be killed leaving Samwell in a position to bargain for the legitimization of his presumed bastard son called Aemon Steelsong aka Monster in return for the support of House Tarly. 

As to Redwyne, I think he would be the most likely of the three to have been plotting, perhaps in conjunction with Hightower, with Illyrio. If not, Paxter's death appears imminent as his fleet sails against Euron. And I suspect his sons could be taken or killed between Bronzegate and Storm's End, leaving Desmera in a precarious position, especially with the Ironmen raiding her island or perhaps even occupying her coastal areas. 

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Garlan Tyrell was given Brightwater Keep at the conclusion of the Battle of Blackwater. This was a written down as the most significant prize awarded to anyone and was confiscated from the Florents, some of which sided with Stannis. However by rights, Randly Tarlys wife should have actually inherited it through his wife who was next in line and stayed loyal.

For a guy who does have a prickly sense of pride, this strikes me as an obvious slap in the face. And although the guys in the know recognize that Tarly is the superior general to Mace, that is not the case with the commoners. We don't get a POV to see his thoughts but I think that will be eating away at him.

I think it extremely likely he is already working with Connington, the advice he gave in the epilogue was terrible. I think Mathis Rowan is also a possibility but the problem I have with this is the likely way Connington is going to capture Storms End, which will involve butchering Rowan's troops to pretend to be sent by Stannis to relieve the stronghold. My gut feeling is that I don't think Rowan would allow this as a subterfuge, and anything less would be too unconvincing for Connington to gamble on. He may be captured and convinced later on however.

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1 hour ago, Makk said:

Garlan Tyrell was given Brightwater Keep at the conclusion of the Battle of Blackwater. This was a written down as the most significant prize awarded to anyone and was confiscated from the Florents, some of which sided with Stannis. However by rights, Randly Tarlys wife should have actually inherited it through his wife who was next in line and stayed loyal.

No, by rights it should go to Lord Alester's eldest son and heir, Alekyne Florent.

1 hour ago, Makk said:

For a guy who does have a prickly sense of pride, this strikes me as an obvious slap in the face. And although the guys in the know recognize that Tarly is the superior general to Mace, that is not the case with the commoners. We don't get a POV to see his thoughts but I think that will be eating away at him.

Tarly is reaping rewards for his good service, too, and he is now risen to a very high position at court, being the first Tarly to do so as far as we know. He has no good reason to complain. And he has every chance to rise even higher in Mace's service. He could even become Hand if Mace claimed the regency and split up the two offices.

1 hour ago, Makk said:

I think it extremely likely he is already working with Connington, the advice he gave in the epilogue was terrible. I think Mathis Rowan is also a possibility but the problem I have with this is the likely way Connington is going to capture Storms End, which will involve butchering Rowan's troops to pretend to be sent by Stannis to relieve the stronghold. My gut feeling is that I don't think Rowan would allow this as a subterfuge, and anything less would be too unconvincing for Connington to gamble on. He may be captured and convinced later on however.

Mace and Tarly both dismiss Connington and Aegon and the Golden Company - and the reason is clear. They have the army, not Kevan, so if King Tommen wants those rebels and invaders to be thrown back into the sea Kevan has to give Mace and Tarly what they want. And they want Margaery acquitted, they want Cersei punished/controlled, and they want more power.

If they are not getting that, Mace and Tarly will both side with Aegon. Since they stood with Aerys II to the end they should have little problem joining him.

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20 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If they are not getting that, Mace and Tarly will both side with Aegon. Since they stood with Aerys II to the end they should have little problem joining him.

Mace has what he wants, a direct family link to the throne, and arguably he personally has the most sway in the entire realm. He won't have that if he switches to side with Aegon.

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No, by rights it should go to Lord Alester's eldest son and heir, Alekyne Florent.

He was disinherited for pledging allegiance to Stannis. Mellessa did not pledge allegiance to Stannis and she was next in line. 

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20 minutes ago, Makk said:

Mace has what he wants, a direct family link to the throne, and arguably he personally has the most sway in the entire realm. He won't have that if he switches to side with Aegon.

Only while Tommen and Margaery yet live. And should 'King Tommen's' parentage actually come up in a main way - say, if Cersei lost her trial-by-combat (or was declared guilty anyway, because she used an undead abomination as champion) or Jaime publicly acknowledged his children - then Mace will have nothing and he'll realize this.

The Lannisters were a good enough mount to ride to power while Tywin was actually alive and the fortunes of war caused people to overlook their flimsy claim to the throne. This is going to change now.

One can see Mace himself arresting Tommen and handing him and the city over to Aegon. This isn't a scenario outside of the realm of possibility. Granted, we'll have first to see some battle to put Aegon in a more powerful position, but that's likely to happen. And if violence in KL exploded before that happened then there might even be no battle between the Tyrell army and Aegon. They could come down to Storm's End to join him or to invite him to take the Iron Throne.

20 minutes ago, Makk said:

He was disinherited for pledging allegiance to Stannis. Mellessa did not pledge allegiance to Stannis and she was next in line. 

Alekyne Florent never pledged allegiance to either Renly or Stannis. He wasn't with the army, he was back home at Brightwater and has since taken refuge at the Hightower.

And Tarly himself took immediate action against his Florent in-laws and their men. The man is married to a traitor's daughter and apparently had to prove his allegiance to his dead king (and his liege's family) by putting down Florent men. That isn't the behavior of a man who cares about Brightwater.

But it seems the entire house was attainted (there are plenty of Florents through the male line around who could also put forth their claims), and that would include Alester's daughters as well as his son and his brothers and their descendants.

If George wanted Tarly to be pissed about the Brightwater thing he should have shown Tarly being pissed about that - and there was ample opportunity to do so, especially in those chapters where Tarly shows up when Mace or the Tyrells are not around.

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18 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

Loras-Renly part to make Margaery Robert's new queen/concubine/whatever, yes, I agree. Renly was not aware of the twincest, though. He seems pretty surprised by it during his parlay with Stannis and even asks Catelyn if she thinks it's true.

There is no way that the Tyrells would have jumped in that scheme if there was no clear path to remove Cersei as queen and her sons (believed  to be also Robert's) as heirs to the Crown. Revealing the twincest is the safest way to do that.

Also Varys makes clear that even Balerion the cat had become suspicions.

 

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2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

There is no way that the Tyrells would have jumped in that scheme if there was no clear path to remove Cersei as queen and her sons (believed  to be also Robert's) as heirs to the Crown. Revealing the twincest is the safest way to do that.

Also Varys makes clear that even Balerion the cat had become suspicions.

"Do I?" Renly shrugged. "So be it. Stannis was never the most cherished of brothers, I confess. Do you suppose this tale of his is true? If Joffrey is the Kingslayer's get --" (Catelyn III, Clash 31)

In any case, this is well out of the scope of the thread.

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7 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

There is no way that the Tyrells would have jumped in that scheme if there was no clear path to remove Cersei as queen and her sons (believed  to be also Robert's) as heirs to the Crown. Revealing the twincest is the safest way to do that.

Also Varys makes clear that even Balerion the cat had become suspicions.

 

Rely didn't know about the twincest. It wasn't necessary for his plan anyway. He reckoned, given Robert was tired of Cersei and had grown to hate her, and given his nature, dangling a pretty teenager in front of him might do the trick. He was probably right. 

Sure, some pretext might be needed to get rid of Cersei, but I'm sure he would have come up with something. 

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15 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Rely didn't know about the twincest. It wasn't necessary for his plan anyway. He reckoned, given Robert was tired of Cersei and had grown to hate her, and given his nature, dangling a pretty teenager in front of him might do the trick. He was probably right. 

Sure, some pretext might be needed to get rid of Cersei, but I'm sure he would have come up with something. 

Which one? It is not easy to get rid of the Queen and marry another at whim. Even in that case, you still need to get rid of Robert's heirs, Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella. There is no way, you can get the Tyrells on board without a definite plan to do so. The Tyrells may lack scruples but they are not idiot. If they are going "to spend" such a valuable asset (Margeary), they will need assurances that they plan has high probabilities to work.

 

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29 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Which one? It is not easy to get rid of the Queen and marry another at whim. Even in that case, you still need to get rid of Robert's heirs, Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella. There is no way, you can get the Tyrells on board without a definite plan to do so. The Tyrells may lack scruples but they are not idiot. If they are going "to spend" such a valuable asset (Margeary), they will need assurances that they plan has high probabilities to work.

True, but there are ways to do it. I doubt they would have just dropped Margaery into bed with him. Would likely have been much more of an Anne Boleyn scenario where she strings him along until she gets her way. I'm not certain they would necessarily have wanted to get rid of Roberts heirs (although they would have been pleased to do so). Marriage to the king is good enough of a prospect, even if your children don't end up immediately in line to the throne.

I don't know what definite plan, if any, Renly had for the removal od Cersei, but we do know he didn't believe Stannis's story about the twincest.

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23 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I don't know what definite plan, if any, Renly had for the removal od Cersei, but we do know he didn't believe Stannis's story about the twincest.

If Renly recognizes that Stannis is telling the truth then and there, he has to recognize that Stannis is the heir and therefore Renly has no business in declaring himself King. It is only a show and the Tyrells went along with it. And actually Renly kind of recognize it when he says "fuck rules, I dress better so I'll be king"

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7 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

If Renly recognizes that Stannis is telling the truth then and there, he has to recognize that Stannis is the heir and therefore Renly has no business in declaring himself King. It is only a show and the Tyrells went along with it. And actually Renly kind of recognize it when he says "fuck rules, I dress better so I'll be king"

Generally agreed, Renly simply doesn't care, and it doesn't suit him by the time of Clash to believe it anyway.

However, it's pretty clear he was at least unaware of the twincest until Stannis sent out his letter.

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On 8/22/2018 at 6:12 PM, Makk said:

Garlan Tyrell was given Brightwater Keep at the conclusion of the Battle of Blackwater. This was a written down as the most significant prize awarded to anyone and was confiscated from the Florents, some of which sided with Stannis. However by rights, Randly Tarlys wife should have actually inherited it through his wife who was next in line and stayed loyal.

For a guy who does have a prickly sense of pride, this strikes me as an obvious slap in the face. And although the guys in the know recognize that Tarly is the superior general to Mace, that is not the case with the commoners. We don't get a POV to see his thoughts but I think that will be eating away at him.

I think it extremely likely he is already working with Connington, the advice he gave in the epilogue was terrible. I think Mathis Rowan is also a possibility but the problem I have with this is the likely way Connington is going to capture Storms End, which will involve butchering Rowan's troops to pretend to be sent by Stannis to relieve the stronghold. My gut feeling is that I don't think Rowan would allow this as a subterfuge, and anything less would be too unconvincing for Connington to gamble on. He may be captured and convinced later on however.

Ser Garlan was givin Brightwater keep by the crown true,  but who holds it now? Its currently under siege but in control of house Florent and by the end of Winds the crown will be completely different IMO thus Garlan will get nothing and will probably die unfortunately as well since hes such a nice guy lol. 

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