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Seeking advice on timeline ripples


Relon

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My friends and family have been playing the Song of Ice and Fire Tabletop RPG.  We have been having massive fun screwing with the timeline of the books (for instance, one of the characters managed to seduce and marry Robb pre-Ned's execution (she pulled a Jeyne Westerling), and the party as a whole managed to spirit away the Stark girls from King's Landing just in time to avoid that horrible mess).  Despite these fairly significant events, much has been going similarly to the canon timeline.  However, it has come time for the consequences of their actions to start bearing some fruit and really make things go wild.  This said, I am finding myself overwhelmed and overloaded trying to suss out the immense amount that could or should change on the part of the rest of Westeros.  So, to the point, I was hoping the forum's hivemind could help me figure out how the pieces should move or at least come up with some interesting consequences, and hopefully we can all have a bit of fun in the process.

The situation and important events that should be taken into account thus far:

- A PC has married Robb Stark and JUST produced an heir

- Another PC is one of the many bastard children of King Robert Baratheon, he has recently become aware of this, but he has sworn his sword in service of House Stark (mostly the PC who married Robb).

- The Stark girls are safely at Riverrun, and Robb has just returned from his Westerlands rampage (no Westerling seduction, or at least none that has been revealed)

- With Robb being unavailable at the time, the Freys bargained for marriages to Sansa, Bran, and Rickon.  Sansa gets her pick, but with Bran and Rickon supposedly dead at this point and Sansa "flowering" Walder is demanding a wedding happen sooner rather than later

- A secret betrothal of Arya and Trystane has been brokered (not even Arya knows), but with the lapse in time between the deal being made and Arya's delivery to the Water Gardens (as agreed), news has spread that there has been a betrothal of Myrcella and Trystane.  The players and Starks have been assured by the Martells that this is a deception meant to secure a Lannister hostage, but that remains to be seen

- Jamie Lannister has remained a prisoner of the Starks.  With the girls safely in hand, there was no motive for Catelyn to let him loose.

Other than the facts above, you should assume that everything else has happened, more or less, as relayed in the books (unless, of course, I remember something else that was changed and point it out).  With the time for the Red and Purple Weddings approaching, but with rather crucial pieces missing or changed, the question of how things play out has become quite hairy.  So please, fellow forum-goers and ASoIaF fans, help me figure out the best way to pull off this convoluted mess.

 

(P.S. I wasn't really sure where the best place for this kind of thread would be, so I figured General would work best).

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3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Where in the timeline are you?  Has the Lannister/Tyrell alliance been cemented at the Blackwater? 

Yes.  The Blackwater has happened in the last few weeks, and preparations for what would be the Purple Wedding are underway.  That has been a particularly thorny issue as, given that Sansa has not been in KL, this means that she won't be there to play a role in any assassination attempt on Joff, neither will Dontos since Sansa wasn't there to stop his killing (though I think Dontos is more easily replaced by Littlefinger).  And since Sansa isn't there, the Tyrells don't have quite the inside scoop on the depth of Joff's depravity; would they even want him dead at this point?

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3 minutes ago, Relon said:

Yes.  The Blackwater has happened in the last few weeks, and preparations for what would be the Purple Wedding are underway.  That has been a particularly thorny issue as, given that Sansa has not been in KL, this means that she won't be there to play a role in any assassination attempt on Joff, neither will Dontos since Sansa wasn't there to stop his killing (though I think Dontos is more easily replaced by Littlefinger).  And since Sansa isn't there, the Tyrells don't have quite the inside scoop on the depth of Joff's depravity; would they even want him dead at this point?

Ok, well with the big disclaimer that I haven't read the books in probably 5-8 years, I'll give this a shot.

The Red Wedding is 100% off.  Walder doesn't have the motivation to betray the Starks and Tywin wouldn't dare initiate it with Jaime still in custody.  Roose Bolton is still lying in wait for an opportunity at betrayal. 

I don't see Sansa's testimonial as really being pivotal in the Tyrell's decision to kill Joffery.  They already knew what a monster he was, they just wanted her to confirm it.  I'm confident they would have been able to confirm it some other way, it's not like Joffery is subtle.  As for Sansa's role in the wedding itself, she was the backup patsy if the Tyrells were unable to pin it on Tyrion.  I again don't see that as really a problem for them to overcome, they'd find another patsy - they're rich. 

The only impediment for the Purple Wedding that I see is that the war is going dramatically less well for the Tyrells than it was in the main story.  Robb is still alive and the Riverlands + the North are proving very formidible.  In contrast the Stormlands were broken by Stannis, Dorne and the Eyrie are both of questionable loyalty, and that leaves just the Tyrells + Lannisters.  The Tyrells are a tricksy bunch, and they have no particular loyalty to the Lannisters if they start looking like the weaker team.  It's possible the Tyrells would go for an overt doublecross by joining against the Lannisters.  If you want to go down that route.

Littlefinger most likely goes ahead with his play to become Lord of the Vale, but where does he go from there?  Cat is still alive and widowed, would he be willing to marry both the Tully girls in succession?  Would Catelyn be willing to go along with that to protect her Stark family?  Another possibility you could explore.

Then there's Dorne, who we know still hate the Lannisters, so it's hard to imagine they'd cross the Starks just to get in bed with the Lannisters.  So to me it's hard to take your comment "The players and Starks have been assured by the Martells that this is a deception meant to secure a Lannister hostage, but that remains to be seen" too seriously.  If you want to pump some drama into the situation, you need to have someone on the Stark side do something stupid because they think the Martells betrayed them (or they never knew of the secret betrothal in the first place).  I leave it up to you whether you want to go down that path. 

So you'll notice I'm not really providing anything clear on what you must do, just pointing out some openings for twists that you could take, if you're interested. 

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30 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The Red Wedding is 100% off.  Walder doesn't have the motivation to betray the Starks and Tywin wouldn't dare initiate it with Jaime still in custody.  Roose Bolton is still lying in wait for an opportunity at betrayal. 

That's how I feel for the most part, but I just wasn't sure if Walder is grasping enough, and the Starks still in a poor enough strategic position (despite winning the battles, he's still losing the war) for him to go for it.  Of course, Robb hasn't lost the Karstarks in this timeline, either.

31 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Littlefinger most likely goes ahead with his play to become Lord of the Vale, but where does he go from there?  Cat is still alive and widowed, would he be willing to marry both the Tully girls in succession?  Would Catelyn be willing to go along with that to protect her Stark family?  Another possibility you could explore.

See, it's things like this that when I'm running this game, it can be easy to forget even some simple motivations.  Of course Littlefinger would want to try to worm his way in with Cat, and it raises interesting questions of how does this interplay with Littlefinger being Lord Paramount of the Trident under the Lannisters that I can start thinking on.

35 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Then there's Dorne, who we know still hate the Lannisters, so it's hard to imagine they'd cross the Starks just to get in bed with the Lannisters.  So to me it's hard to take your comment "The players and Starks have been assured by the Martells that this is a deception meant to secure a Lannister hostage, but that remains to be seen" too seriously.  If you want to pump some drama into the situation, you need to have someone on the Stark side do something stupid because they think the Martells betrayed them (or they never knew of the secret betrothal in the first place).  I leave it up to you whether you want to go down that path. 

I think the main drama here is coming from the uncertainty.  The Starks aren't exactly the most duplicitous bunch, and as far as the public is concerned, the Lannisters have Dorne's nominal support by taking up the betrothal to Myrcella.  Dorne is effectively a double-agent.  The Starks have to trust that the Martells' Lannister hate is stronger than ambition, and with the Arya betrothal secret, if she goes to the Water Gardens, as agreed to in the game, it makes it very easy for Dorne to pull strings either way and play kingmaker by marrying the girl on the winning side once it becomes clear(er).

40 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

So you'll notice I'm not really providing anything clear on what you must do, just pointing out some openings for twists that you could take, if you're interested. 

And it's much appreciated.  Its really just very helpful to have other people to bounce ideas off of and give suggestions like this.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I hope you haven't played the next Round in your Campaign yet. I signed up to join Westeros Forums in part to discuss this with you. I had to get approved first, though, LOL 

Anywho; I want to throw some counter-balance to opposing arguments. This is primarily from the vantage point of the books, as I have only gotten partway through the T.V. series. 

Addressing your initial post and requoting here (without actually using the quote function for purposes of clarity) I will put in bold my replies to each situation.  My advice is not issued just from simply being a RPG enthusiast myself; I have been writing stories and crafting worlds for over twenty years now, and despite not being published yet, my stories and writing techniques have received praise, including the professionally published Western author John D. Nesbitt, who taught my English and Creative Writing courses in college. I hope this accounts for something. I should also add that while considering another creator's world, we can never truly know what each character might do in a given situation; that is for the author--and the author alone--to know with 100% complete certainty. What I am applying to my analysis is based on the characters' descriptions, feelings, and actions as contained within the novel. That's all I can offer by way of aid in this matter.

Furthermore, I have tagged events that should have been revealed by now but may not have been (book vs. show and all) into SPOILER tags; though I am certain you know all of this already, or most as like.

- A PC has married Robb Stark and JUST produced an heir Ths just cracked me up. I would have LOVED to have been part of such a campaign.

- Another PC is one of the many bastard children of King Robert Baratheon, he has recently become aware of this, but he has sworn his sword in service of House Stark (mostly the PC who married Robb). Without seeing how the character has been played thus far, I can't offer any definitive advice here, except to note the following; depending on the character, the news may not even be relevant to his life.

Spoiler

We have seen Gendry, and there's been some small build-up showing that it may affect him--he likes Arrya, but doesn't feel he is worthy of her as a baseborn son of some unknown father

. If the character is a sellsword--a popular profession in these games, I imagine--he might try to milk that fame for what it's worth. And in Westeros at present, it is worth very little. "I'm a son of Robert Barathon!" "In truth? So am I!" **Hugs** "Brother!"

- The Stark girls are safely at Riverrun, and Robb has just returned from his Westerlands rampage (no Westerling seduction, or at least none that has been revealed) This seems simple enough to handle...at present. Just remember that it will affect character development, as Arrya will be nowhere like she is now, based on all she's gone through--and Sansa may still be the vapid, dreamy character we knew from the beginning; except now she would hate her father and sister for taking her from her Beloved Joffery.

- With Robb being unavailable at the time, the Freys bargained for marriages to Sansa, Bran, and Rickon.  Sansa gets her pick, but with Bran and Rickon supposedly dead at this point and Sansa "flowering" Walder is demanding a wedding happen sooner rather than later This might be more difficult. Sansa's mindset would be much different now about being linked to an 'unworthy' suitor;

Spoiler

much like she was in King's landing when presented with the option of Willas, and with being forced to marry Tyrion.

In addition, heavy thought must be given to how the Lord of the Crossing would consider such proposals (though it sounds like a done deal at present, it might be kept in mind for other campaigns); while we know Frey is eager to get rid of excess baggage, we also know the true situation with the original pact. Frey was open to such a pact for only two reasons in chief; he saw Robb growing in power--becoming a genuine threat to House Lannister--and he had no great affection for the pretentious Lord Tywin. With Robb being already taken, the pact loses the thrust of both its prestige and purpose; Walder Frey was hedging his bets in case the brash young Wolf-King actually secured his claim. He has no such need to stake such claims with Sansa, Bran, and Rickon

- A secret betrothal of Arya and Trystane has been brokered (not even Arya knows), but with the lapse in time between the deal being made and Arya's delivery to the Water Gardens (as agreed), news has spread that there has been a betrothal of Myrcella and Trystane.  The players and Starks have been assured by the Martells that this is a deception meant to secure a Lannister hostage, but that remains to be seen I'm curious about this. Remember; Tyrion brokered the deal with the Martell's when things were getting desperate at King's Landing. Since it's not at this point yet, it would be a cold day in hell before Cersi lets him pawn of her dear daughter. (I'm assuming, ofc, without knowing just how much has changed. I know you mentioned that events have played out 'mostly' as in the novels, but with so much of substance being modified, ripples should be occurring in all of Westeros from these changes.

- Jamie Lannister has remained a prisoner of the Starks.  With the girls safely in hand, there was no motive for Catelyn to let him loose. The critical issue to remember here is that Jamie's development is severely affected by this;

Spoiler

Brienne rubbed off on Jamie and made him something better. Should he escape, or be bartered off, he will be the same old Jamie that he was prior to the Whispering Woods if there's no catalyst to mark otherwise.

 

Other than the facts above, you should assume that everything else has happened, more or less, as relayed in the books (unless, of course, I remember something else that was changed and point it out).  With the time for the Red and Purple Weddings approaching, but with rather crucial pieces missing or changed, the question of how things play out has become quite hairy.  So please, fellow forum-goers and ASoIaF fans, help me figure out the best way to pull off this convoluted mess. Regarding the Purple Wedding, we have much to consider. Sansa wasn't just 'a patsy,' she was THE Patsy. She was a high-profile hostage, and that made for convenient ends regarding the upcoming wedding. In addition, we must remember that Dontos was NOT the perpetrator of the planned death of Joffery Baratheon-Lannister;

Spoiler

Lord Petyr Balish was. And his motivation may have been multifaceted, but the thrust of it was his desire for Sansa Stark. Without that motivation, I am less inclined to believe the Purple Wedding would even happen, barring another catalyst.

 

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13 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

Well speaking as an experienced GM, you should have someone kidnap The Stark heir. Perhaps Tyrion Lannister.

This seems very un-Tyrion like, though; he's not known for overt displays of aggression, and if he uses his cunning to complete this, his reasons need to be sound and ground in necessity. I'm not seeing what reasons he would have, ATM, to do so. :/

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29 minutes ago, Bronn_of_the_Blackwater said:

This seems very un-Tyrion like, though; he's not known for overt displays of aggression, and if he uses his cunning to complete this, his reasons need to be sound and ground in necessity. I'm not seeing what reasons he would have, ATM, to do so. :/

To bargain for his brother's release.

Or LF could do it, to blame in on someone and/or cause chaos.

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1 hour ago, Martell Spy said:

To bargain for his brother's release.

Or LF could do it, to blame in on someone and/or cause chaos.

True that; but while Tyrion loved Jamie dearly, even when he had the power, he was powerless to expedite Jamie's return. I can't see him making overt, or even subversive, sweeping plays to secure his release any more quickly than Cersi would. And perhaps he figures it's no good just because of that; because Cersi would do anything (in Tyrion's eyes, anyway) to have her twin back, and yet even she lacks for the means to accomplish this.

Baelish is far more likely to front such a play, and by far has the resources and cunning to manipulate the pieces; but what remains is his motive.  Baelish was a great Master of Coin for one reason; he never factored a negative balance. All net-incomes served some purpose in one fashion or another, and if the ledger ever ran red, he quickly amended the debt to his favor, thereby ensuring a positive net gain. So what it behoove him to steal one Stark to return a Lannister to the Landing? Ah, but one Stark for another, as they say... OFC, he would have to manipulate the events so that all purposes seemed benign to the other pawns , um, brokers, in the transaction, LOL He might even play the Frey situation to a positive net as well, in this regard. 8D

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