Is the Reach that powerfull?

[Lord Varys]

36 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Casterly Rock's strength vs Highgarden did not truly begin to increase until after Aerys II's death. Marrying Cersei to RB meant that Tywin's grandson would be heir to the IT while his second grandson would stand to inherit Storm's End. So that lays the foundation for a Reach-style power bloc between the westerlands, crownlands and stormlands. Plus there is the fact that Tywin has already shown himself to be a ruthless warlord, destroyer of houses and cities, and a Machiavellian manipulator to boot. So there is reason for concern in Highgarden at this point, but no need to panic.

But that immediately goes away when King Robert grants Dragonstone to his brother Stannis and makes his brother Renly the new Lord of Storm's End, no? The former would have been made early on in Robert's reign, the latter perhaps some time later, but most definitely before the birth of Tommen (although I'm inclined to believe it was even before the birth of Joffrey and Myrcella).

36 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

During the Wot5K, of course, Tywin goes on a Shermanesque total war rampage on the Riverlands, burning everything in sight and slaying small folk by the thousands. By the turn of the new century, he is poised to install his sister as the Lady of Riverrun, which means his nephew will be lord in short order, is marrying his granddaughter into House Martell, and is on the verge of seeing his dwarf son become lord regent of Winterfell and his impending grandson become lord in his own right someday. Marriage is exactly how Highgarden has maintained its hegemony over the centuries, and this is exactly what Tywin is doing now. This large, extended family controlling the paramount houses in each realm gives him the ability to raise levies from well over half the kingdom, which means his army will dwarf (sorry) anything the Reach can muster.

That vision only existed for a short period time and only because the Tyrells helped to bring it about and because they themselves are the power behind the Lannisters and Kings Joffrey and Tommen. The Tyrion plan is the only thing that would truly be part of a Lannister hegemony, effectively creating the House Lannister of Winterfell if Sansa children by Tyrion would go by their lord father's name. How long that line could prevail in the North is a completely mystery - I'd not bet on them to thrive even if Tywin had lived another thirty years.

Riverrun goes to the Freys but the Riverlands belong to House Baelish. And Myrcella would belong to the Dornish, not the Dornish to Myrcella. They would make her their creature, not the other way around. Not to mention that Arianne and Quentyn stand between Sunspear and Trystane.

36 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Gerold may have been a strong lord, but as long as the Lannister family continue to intermarry within the westerlands he posed no imminent threat to Highgarden. It doesn't matter if Tywin has or has not made any overt threats to the Reach yet, the key issue here is the balance of power: Casterly Rock is emerging as the new undisputed hegemon in the kingdom while Highgarden's is on the wane. Even if this does not lead to outright war right away, it gives Casterly Rock all the leverage it needs to win out on the countless disputes that invariably arise between two realms that share a common ill-defined border 1000 leagues long. So HG will slowly diminish by a thousand cuts, while CR continues to grow stronger, to the point where HG is not longer able to resist its will even if it wanted to.

This is what the Game of Thrones is all about: the acquisition and preservation of power. Since the end of RR, Tywin has been acquiring power while the Tyrells are stuck in neutral.

I really don't see why a man dominating the Crown would want to challenge/threaten or limit the power of Highgarden. It is not that Tywin has any issues with the Tyrells or the Reach, no? He doesn't want to expand the territory of the West at the cost of the Reach or anything like that.

And there is a tendency in Westeros that those houses controlling the Crown rarely keep that power for a longer period of time - just look at the Arryns, Hightowers, Strongs, Martells, Blackwoods, etc. Aegon V was married to a Blackwood when he took the throne, and the Hand who handed him the throne was his half-Blackwood granduncle - yet there were no Blackwoods in high offices during the reign of Egg's son (as far as we know) or grandson (of that we can be pretty certain).

Whatever Tywin built wouldn't have survived for long, even in peace time. His grandchildren or great-grandchildren would take new spouses and allow other houses to rise high, and the star of House Lannister would wane again.

And whatever power bloc the Tyrells (or the Gardeners before them) had in the Reach, it had little to no effect on the Realm as a whole. Sure, the Gardeners were the greatest and most powerful kings in Westeros, but that didn't give them real power over the other kings, just as the marriage alliances of the Tyrells in the Reach only strengthened their hold over their bannermen, it doesn't given them power over other regions.

But prestige-wise the Lannisters, Arryns, and Starks outshine the Tyrells still (although not the Gardeners). They all were kings once, and they ruled their kingdoms for thousands of years. No other great house but the Hightowers and the Baratheons (due to their royal ancestry through the female line and their kinship to the Targaryens through the male line) can compete with that. The Tyrells, Tullys, and Greyjoys are not playing in the same league.

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But that immediately goes away when King Robert grants Dragonstone to his brother Stannis and makes his brother Renly the new Lord of Storm's End, no? The former would have been made early on in Robert's reign, the latter perhaps some time later, but most definitely before the birth of Tommen (although I'm inclined to believe it was even before the birth of Joffrey and Myrcella).

Not necessarily. Renly is childless, and could very well remain so, and Stannis only has a daughter. So it would very well end up that Tommen is the only logical heir to either castle, but most likely Storm's end. And even if either Renly or Stannis do produce a son, Robert has the liberty to grant the lordship of either castle to whomever he chooses, and he will have to find a seat somewhere that is worthy of his second son.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That vision only existed for a short period time and only because the Tyrells helped to bring it about and because they themselves are the power behind the Lannisters and Kings Joffrey and Tommen. The Tyrion plan is the only thing that would truly be part of a Lannister hegemony, effectively creating the House Lannister of Winterfell if Sansa children by Tyrion would go by their lord father's name. How long that line could prevail in the North is a completely mystery - I'd not bet on them to thrive even if Tywin had lived another thirty years.

I'm talking about the situation after the Red Wedding and after Tyrion's marriage to Sansa. It's already starting to fall apart, primarily through the actions of House Tyrell. Yes, the Tyrells had sided with Tywin at that point, but they really had no other choice. They couldn't very well let Stannis take the IT and they think he and Robb Stark conspired together to kill Renly. They also can't take the crown themselves because they would end up warring against all the other houses at once, which is the one thing they most definitely do not want. So Tywin is the only option even though he represents a serious existential threat at this point. The immediate benefit is that they get a marriage that will put a Tyrell heir on the IT in short order and can now work to undermine Tywin's growing hegemony from the inside. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. By the turn of the new century, Tywin is their most formidable enemy.

Tyrion is a clever fellow. He brought the Vale tribes into his orbit with only a few words. I suspect he could ingratiate himself with the northerners pretty well. But if they do kill him, do you think the northern houses would then conspire to kill the son of Sansa Stark? Perhaps, but it is certainly not something the Tyrells would just hope for when there is a way for them to eliminate the possibility altogether right here and now.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Riverrun goes to the Freys but the Riverlands belong to House Baelish. And Myrcella would belong to the Dornish, not the Dornish to Myrcella. They would make her their creature, not the other way around. Not to mention that Arianne and Quentyn stand between Sunspear and Trystane.

Petyr has done a good job of getting the Vale lords in line, but it's hard to see how he will extend his authority over the riverlands as well. By the same token, however, its unlikely that they will meekly submit to a Frey or Lannister either. So the riverlands are a mess right now, but that probably won't last forever. Also note that Petyr is LP of the riverlands at the sufferance of the crown, so if he were to back the Tyrells in defiance of the IT, he would be promptly removed, and the title probably given to Emmon Frey, or whichever son holds the title. In all likelihood, that move will come sooner or later anyway as Tywin consolidates his power.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I really don't see why a man dominating the Crown would want to challenge/threaten or limit the power of Highgarden. It is not that Tywin has any issues with the Tyrells or the Reach, no? He doesn't want to expand the territory of the West at the cost of the Reach or anything like that.

And there is a tendency in Westeros that those houses controlling the Crown rarely keep that power for a longer period of time - just look at the Arryns, Hightowers, Strongs, Martells, Blackwoods, etc. Aegon V was married to a Blackwood when he took the throne, and the Hand who handed him the throne was his half-Blackwood granduncle - yet there were no Blackwoods in high offices during the reign of Egg's son (as far as we know) or grandson (of that we can be pretty certain).

They share a common boarder many hundreds of leagues long. Like we saw in the SS, disputes over bridges, dams, mills, farmlands, hunting grounds etc. are common, and when they involve two or more great houses they are often adjudicated by the king. If Tywin just controlled the crown, then of course he wouldn't dare challenge the Reach. But if he controls the crown and has the ability to raise any army that could defeat HG, that's a whole different ballgame. This isn't about war or invasion or taking over one's realm, it's about leverage. Control of the crown combined with military superiority gives Casterly Rock leverage over Highgarden, a complete reversal of the leverage HG has maintained for thousands of years.

The Arryns, Hightowers, etc. were all Hands or gave brides to the Targ kings. The throne remained in Targ hands and they wielded its power. No Blackwoods in high office, as you say, but plenty of war and bloodshed. Why? Because they had the backing of enough lords in the realm to challenge the dominant power. If they had even more support, mayhaps by marrying into some of the great houses, they very well could have taken the throne.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Whatever Tywin built wouldn't have survived for long, even in peace time. His grandchildren or great-grandchildren would take new spouses and allow other houses to rise high, and the star of House Lannister would wane again.

And whatever power bloc the Tyrells (or the Gardeners before them) had in the Reach, it had little to no effect on the Realm as a whole. Sure, the Gardeners were the greatest and most powerful kings in Westeros, but that didn't give them real power over the other kings, just as the marriage alliances of the Tyrells in the Reach only strengthened their hold over their bannermen, it doesn't given them power over other regions.

Who's to say? It would have taken multiple generations of inter-marriage between these houses to form a lasting bloc like the Tyrells have with the Reds and Highs, which did have an effect on the realm because it made them pretty much impervious to invasion as long as it was strong. The weren't interested in power over other kings -- they had the best land on the continent -- they need it for their own security. Now, Tywin is laying the groundwork for this same kind of thing for House Lannister, and the Tyrells aren't going to sit around waiting to see if it succeeds or not. They will do everything in their power to quash it now, while they still can.

This is the same dynamic that caused them to back the Mad King during RR. Most people assume that it was simple loyalty to their sovereign, but if you look at what was happening, the Tyrells had every reason to fear a bloc between the north, riverlands, stormlands and, ultimately, Vale as they do the west-river-north-storm of Tywin's design. This is what the Game of Thrones is all about.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But prestige-wise the Lannisters, Arryns, and Starks outshine the Tyrells still (although not the Gardeners). They all were kings once, and they ruled their kingdoms for thousands of years. No other great house but the Hightowers and the Baratheons (due to their royal ancestry through the female line and their kinship to the Targaryens through the male line) can compete with that. The Tyrells, Tullys, and Greyjoys are not playing in the same league.

It's not a matter of status or prestige; it's about security and survival. The Reach has no natural defenses to speak of: few mountains, with passes that provide easy access from the south; only one major river with a few tributaries, and plenty of coastline for a naval landing -- the interior is primarily league upon league of open farmland, ripe for the taking. The only thing that has kept invaders at bay all these years is the size of the Reach army. Take that way and the Reach is at the mercy of its neighboring realms

 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

On ‎8‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 8:46 PM, John Suburbs said:

Control of the crown combined with military superiority gives Casterly Rock leverage over Highgarden, a complete reversal of the leverage HG has maintained for thousands of years.

I don’t see much evidence of “hegemony” of either the Gardeners or the Tyrells. Granted, they have the largest army, but there’s no evidence of them using it to exert any kind of hegemony over the rest of the 7K, before or after the Conquest. Before the Conquest, they appear to be constantly at war with the neighbouring kingdoms, but they don’t appear to constantly have had the upper hand. After the Conquest, they don’t at any point seem to exert more power at court than the other houses. I can’t think of any time a Tyrell was Hand, for example, or married into the royal family.

They’re certainly powerful, but far from hegemonic. They have the largest army, but not enough to exert their will over the rest of the kingdoms. They’re rich, but the Lannisters are richer. And as you point out, their region is almost as vulnerable as the Riverlands in terms of natural borders.  

I don’t know if we’re simply using different meanings of the word “hegemonic”, but if by that you mean that not only powerful, but they use that power to effectively dominate the other great houses in Westros, there’s no real evidence for that. If anything, they seem to be one of the less active houses in 7K politics after the Conquest.

[John Suburbs]

5 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I don’t see much evidence of “hegemony” of either the Gardeners or the Tyrells. Granted, they have the largest army, but there’s no evidence of them using it to exert any kind of hegemony over the rest of the 7K, before or after the Conquest. Before the Conquest, they appear to be constantly at war with the neighbouring kingdoms, but they don’t appear to constantly have had the upper hand. After the Conquest, they don’t at any point seem to exert more power at court than the other houses. I can’t think of any time a Tyrell was Hand, for example, or married into the royal family.

They’re certainly powerful, but far from hegemonic. They have the largest army, but not enough to exert their will over the rest of the kingdoms. They’re rich, but the Lannisters are richer. And as you point out, their region is almost as vulnerable as the Riverlands in terms of natural borders.  

I don’t know if we’re simply using different meanings of the word “hegemonic”, but if by that you mean that not only powerful, but they use that power to effectively dominate the other great houses in Westros, there’s no real evidence for that. If anything, they seem to be one of the less active houses in 7K politics after the Conquest.

A hegemon is not necessarily a hostile power. The U.S. is the hegemon today, but it has no interest in conquering Mexico or Canada or anyone else. It simply has the strongest military.

The Gardener/Tyrells had no interest in exerting their hegemony by conquering other realms because they already had the best lands on the continent. The Lannisters may have more gold, but the Tyrells have an even more precious commodity: food.

So the purpose of the Reach's army is to protect themselves. They have no natural defenses to speak of: no impervious mountains, no patchwork of rivers, no dense forests or deserts... All they have is league upon league of wide open farmland. There only defense is their population, which gives them the single biggest army on the continent. If they lose that advantage, they are vulnerable to attack and invasion, and history bears this out: the only time Highgarden has ever fallen is when internal differences, which arose over disputes over marriages, weakened them internally so that a combined assault by the westerlands, stormlands and Dorne overcame the Reach army. This is why they are deeply concerned by any move to unite other great houses through marriage, both during Robert's Rebellion and now with the Wot5K.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

3 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

A hegemon is not necessarily a hostile power. The U.S. is the hegemon today, but it has no interest in conquering Mexico or Canada or anyone else. It simply has the strongest military.

The Gardener/Tyrells had no interest in exerting their hegemony by conquering other realms because they already had the best lands on the continent. The Lannisters may have more gold, but the Tyrells have an even more precious commodity: food.

So the purpose of the Reach's army is to protect themselves. They have no natural defenses to speak of: no impervious mountains, no patchwork of rivers, no dense forests or deserts... All they have is league upon league of wide open farmland. There only defense is their population, which gives them the single biggest army on the continent. If they lose that advantage, they are vulnerable to attack and invasion, and history bears this out: the only time Highgarden has ever fallen is when internal differences, which arose over disputes over marriages, weakened them internally so that a combined assault by the westerlands, stormlands and Dorne overcame the Reach army. This is why they are deeply concerned by any move to unite other great houses through marriage, both during Robert's Rebellion and now with the Wot5K.

The US is hegemonic not just because it has the strongest military, but also because it dominates others politically and economically 

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

The US is hegemonic not just because it has the strongest military, but also because it dominates others politically and economically 

Well, whatever you want to call it, the point is the same. Other great houses uniting themselves through marriage or any other means is a direct threat to Highgarden's security, and they will work to prevent this whenever it arises -- just like they did during Robert's Rebellion and just like they are doing now.

[Legitimate_Bastard]

On 8/10/2018 at 5:25 PM, Sor Peter, the Tall said:

3- I read somewhere that the vassals of the Tyrell are not so loyal and don’t gather their hole strength for their liege lord (except for Renly, because he was charismatic), but I don’t know if this affirmation is true.

I thought it was odd most of the Reach Lords swarmed to Renly - who is a Stormlander. I suppose its the Margaery connection.

[nicgolightly]

Being the second largest kingdom, only to the north, the most populous with around 12 million, and by far the most fertile, they are given many advantages. So I would say even during a war in the south or with an idiot ruler *cough*cough*macetyrell*cough*cough, the reach would still be a top 3 most powerful kingdom in almost every situation (except for maybe a mass famine)

[The_Eagle_Lord19]

What makes the reach so powerful is the fact that they are a bread basket and have the gold to show it. They also have the ability to raise the most men in westeros but from the way it seems the quality of soldier they bring to the table isn't all that substantial. The north can only raise 30k men for their armies at most but the quality soldier seems to be different. It makes me wonder how many men they have in their 80k man army are just peasants wearing regular clothes carrying pitch forks which really isn't much of a soldier at all. I also wonder how many fully armored knights they bring to the table. Again Robb reached the twins with just short of 20k men but I feel like it was the cream of the north. Most of them were armed fairly well. The had to have something other than Robb's leadership