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A Bolton-ruled North


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5 minutes ago, Euron Lannister said:

i don't think so, house manderly has a deep connection with the starks especially them will never accept bolton rule. and they allied with house glover, and when the fighting breaks out house umber will join.

while roose might be a acceptable ruler for some of the other houses, ramsay is not acceptable and if roose does not get rid of him, manderly will have more allies.

Roose suspects Manderly.  The big man's time is running short.  

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Any of the Starks could still lay claim to Winterfell by conquest.

Sansa with a Vale army, and a Waynwood(distant Stark husband)

Arya somehow?

Bran with an army of CotF, animals and giants

Rickon with Skagosi unicorn riders and hillclansmen

Jon with Robb's will could get backing from any/all of the above

Ten years is not enough time for all of Boltons threats to die off. 

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No good answer for house Manderly. They are simply more powerful than the Boltons. Trying to rule a vassal that is more powerful than yourself is problematic at best. Even the Manderlys superficial compliance required installing Freys at their court having Wyman's son as a hostage and betrothing Wynafryd, Wyman's ultimate heir to a Frey. As you may have noticed Wyman cleaned house before he left. 

You may also have noticed that the knights he took with him do not include the captain of his guard and whenever one is described it is as elderly. This is a winter suicide mission. They don't intend to return. Meanwhile Wynafryd is in on Wyman's plans. And they were raising an army. 

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3 hours ago, Starkz said:

Bolton’s have no support from anyone. 

That is clearly not true. Of the 7,000 Northern soldiers at the red wedding half were loyal to him. Dustins, Ryswells, some Umbers and Karstarks were all helping Ramsay back in the North.

The North is fragmented with a huge leadership vacuum, there will be ambitious family members and minor nobility hoping to step up and supporting one faction, the faction with the largest army, may be one way of doing so.

 

19 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

No good answer for house Manderly. They are simply more powerful than the Boltons.

Richer, we have no idea how powerful they are.  5 books in all the available evidence points to the Bolton's having the larger army. 

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11 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

That is clearly not true. Of the 7,000 Northern soldiers at the red wedding half were loyal to him. Dustins, Ryswells, some Umbers and Karstarks were all helping Ramsay back in the North.

The North is fragmented with a huge leadership vacuum, there will be ambitious family members and minor nobility hoping to step up and supporting one faction, the faction with the largest army, may be one way of doing so.

 

Richer, we have no idea how powerful they are.  5 books in all the available evidence points to the Bolton's having the larger army. 

Karstarks yes but that is probably over now with Arnolf and his brood dead. Barbrey Dustin, but not for Ramsay. The Ryswells are probably a package deal with Barbrey. Though we know next to nothing about them. The Umbers went on both sides. The rest are headless or under threat and still a minority. Unless you wish to contend that Wyman Manderly is genuine ally of Rose's and went to Winterfell in good faith. 

And we have plenty of ideas of how powerful they are. They sent a compliment to the War and held back forces for the defence of White Harbor. They sent men with ser Rodrick and Wyman gave Manderly gave a full account of all the forces available to him, which include the most heavy horse in the North and fifty warships. They also have easily the largest population base to recruit from and access to trade. Manderly also commands vassals of his own and influences the decision of others. So no, there is plenty of evidence about Manderly strength and it all points to it being superior to Boltons.

Moreover the fact that Bolton had to actually dispose of the majority of the troops under his command while in the Riverlands and the fact that many Houses have found themselves bereft of leadership makes it clear that the houses Bolton can count on are a minority. Had Bolton managed to pacify the North in short order he probably could have gotten the rest to fall in line. On the contrary he was on the verge of open conflict within his own army.

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1 minute ago, The Sleeper said:

Karstarks yes but that is probably over now with Arnolf and his brood dead. Barbrey Dustin, but not for Ramsay. The Ryswells are probably a package deal with Barbrey. Though we know next to nothing about them. The Umbers went on both sides. The rest are headless or under threat and still a minority. Unless you wish to contend that Wyman Manderly is genuine ally of Rose's and went to Winterfell in good faith. 

Wyman's 300 are not exactly a significant part of the 5-6k host at Winterfell. 

1 minute ago, The Sleeper said:

And we have plenty of ideas of how powerful they are. They sent a compliment to the War and held back forces for the defence of White Harbor.

They sent 1,500, the Boltons sent far more. 

Where is it claimed they held back forces? Robb calls his banners before Cat delivers her orders for Moat Cailin and White Harbor ( and the order was to strengthen and repair the defenses). 

Naturally White Harbor would leave soldiers behind but then so did the Dreadfort. 

1 minute ago, The Sleeper said:

 

They sent men with ser Rodrick

a couple of hundred, Ramsay brought 600.

1 minute ago, The Sleeper said:

 

and Wyman gave Manderly gave a full account of all the forces available to him, which include the most heavy horse in the North and fifty warships.

with no able crewmen, that is why he made a deal with Davos. 

And it should be pointed out heavy horse is not suited to the Northern winter, as we have seen in Stannis' army, it is not surprising that the further north you go the less there will be. 

1 minute ago, The Sleeper said:

 

They also have easily the largest population base to recruit from and access to trade.

 

that makes them rich, it does not make them military powerful.

1 minute ago, The Sleeper said:

 

Manderly also commands vassals of his own and influences the decision of others. So no, there is plenty of evidence about Manderly strength and it all points to it being superior to Boltons.

in terms of what we have seen it does not. 

  • Roose sends around double the men with Robb than Wyman does
  • the battle for Hornwood is a stalemate, even with Rodrik's help
  • the 600 Bolton men at the battle of winterfell outnumber Wyman's 200
  • Wyman brings only 300 to winterfell (no one comments on him having significantly more). 

 

thus far in the series the Boltons have been shown to have the larger military. 

 

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 “I have been building warships for more than a year. Some you saw, but there are as many more hidden up the White Knife. Even with the losses I have suffered, I still command more heavy horse than any other lord north of the Neck. My walls are strong, and my vaults are full of silver. Oldcastle and Widow’s Watch will take their lead from me. My bannermen include a dozen petty lords and a hundred landed knights. I can deliver King Stannis the allegiance of all the lands east of the White Knife, from Widow’s Watch and Ramsgate to the Sheepshead Hills and the headwaters of the Broken Branch. All this I pledge to do if you will meet my price.”

Wyman Manderly  to Davos on his final chapter on the Winds of Winter

@Bernie Mac

You might be claim he is exaggerating and it might be true to an extent, but still the manpower required to crew the ships Davos has seen with his own eyes "Behind the jetty wall, the inner harbor was crowded with war galleys. Davos counted twenty-three. Lord Wyman was a fat man, but not an idle one, it seemed." would account for half of all the forces Bolton has deployed in total, if we count a hundred crewmen for each war galley. If he has indeed as many ships more on the White Knife, it means that Manderly is capable of supporting as many men as Boltons entire army in his navy alone. 

So we have plenty of ideas of how strong they are. In short house Manderly is bigger in all respects than house Bolton. 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Wyman's 300 are not exactly a significant part of the 5-6k host at Winterfell. 

So? Wyman was also supposed to bring hostages and the Freys along with him. He did bring the latter to serve in pies. Are you claiming that he brought his entire heavy horse with him? Given that he is looking for Rickon, it means that he intends to fight. This means that he brought with him what he could spare for appearances. 

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Where is it claimed they held back forces? Robb calls his banners before Cat delivers her orders for Moat Cailin and White Harbor ( and the order was to strengthen and repair the defenses). 

Naturally White Harbor would leave soldiers behind but then so did the Dreadfort.

 

Manderly remained to see to the defences of White Harbor. The garisson of a city will be much larger than the garisson of a castle, particularly when that city is the gateway which the North trades and has a harbor in which a potential invading army can land. Obviously Roose left behind more and better troops than were strictly necessary, but at the same time Wyman was supposed to defend an entire city and beyond that, to an extent the entire North. 

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

that makes them rich, it does not make them military powerful.

Of course it does. More wealth and resources means they can support more troops, better and for a longer period. You could argue that Bolton devoted a greater percentage of his resources to his armies. That might be true in peacetime. However Manderly has been engaged in war for than a year now. Hence the new fortification and ships and raising more troops.

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

  • Roose sends around double the men with Robb than Wyman does
  • the battle for Hornwood is a stalemate, even with Rodrik's help
  • the 600 Bolton men at the battle of winterfell outnumber Wyman's 200
  • Wyman brings only 300 to winterfell (no one comments on him having significantly more). 

 

thus far in the series the Boltons have been shown to have the larger military. 

 

What has been shown thus far is that Bolton has deployed more troops than Manderly, probably close to all they are capable of. It has also been shown that Manderly has at his disposal more resources and is in charge of a greater and more concentrated population than Bolton. That simply means more powerful.

Also, what battle at Hornwood?

"Perhaps when Lord Bolton hears his tale, he will abandon his claim, but meantime we have Manderly knights and Dreadfort men killing one another in Hornwood forests, and I lack the strength to stop them.”

That sounds like skirmishes to me, prior to which Rodrick killed Reek and arrested Ramsay. It says nothing about numbers or the relative strength of the houses. 

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1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

 

 

What has been shown thus far is that Bolton has deployed more troops than Manderly,

Yes, that is what I originally said. Canon wise the evidence points to them having the larger military. We are 5 books and a handful of sample chapters into a 7 book series, thus far the Boltons are the more powerful according to the text.

The Manderlys being more powerful is just speculation at this point.

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1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Yes, that is what I originally said. Canon wise the evidence points to them having the larger military. We are 5 books and a handful of sample chapters into a 7 book series, thus far the Boltons are the more powerful according to the text.

The Manderlys being more powerful is just speculation at this point.

That is not evidence that is a statement. That the Manderlys have more resources is also established. That the one with the most resources will have the greater military is simple logic. That is also what evidence means. You can choose to ignore it if you wish. After all we haven't seen the Hightower's army. According to you they must not have any. 

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On 8/12/2018 at 8:40 PM, Son of Man said:

Many families must have said that while the Starks were conquering the north.  The power transition to the Boltons is actually much smoother.  The Starks destroyed the warg king and took his daughters by force.  Which is what the Boltons are doing to the Starks.  The resistant families who still hold affection for the Starks will get over it and move on.

Eventually, yes, they will move on.  They have in the past and they will again.

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The war of the five kings has taken its toll on the north.  Nobody outside of the Manderlys are willing to fight the Boltons just to put a Stark back in Winterfell.  They may whine and smart about it but they are not about to go into another war.  The throne supports the Boltons, thus making them the new rulers of the north.  To go against them is to rebel again.  I doubt there is enough motivation to do that.  

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3 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

The war of the five kings has taken its toll on the north.  Nobody outside of the Manderlys are willing to fight the Boltons just to put a Stark back in Winterfell.  They may whine and smart about it but they are not about to go into another war.  The throne supports the Boltons, thus making them the new rulers of the north.  To go against them is to rebel again.  I doubt there is enough motivation to do that.  

The Manderlys are not willing to fight the Boltons just to put a Stark to the throne. Rather it is the means not the end in itself. Part of the reason is survival. They had their differences with the Boltons and the latter will sure try to curb their power or find someway to subdue them in order to secure their rule. The other part is ambition. Gaining custody or Rickon would mean they could rule in his name for quite a while come out of the affair with their prominence and power increased. Marrying him to Wylla would also mean they could a descendant of theirs to the North's throne.

They wouldn't be the only house to harbor ambitions. Currently most of them have been severely weakened and are considerable disarray to think much past survival but eventually some would think why should the Boltons be in charge and not them. It is only tradition, but only the Starks are considered legitimate in the North. The same applies with the Lannisters in the West, the Arryn in the Vale and the Targaryens over all of Westeros. It is the reason the Boltons made up an Arya to marry to Ramsay. 

The South is largely irrelevant, when they are not in it. Even at the best of times any meaningful intervention from the Throne would require a huge investment of resources and manpower with low odds of success and most in the South don't think it is worth it to begin with. In the current conditions with the Throne in shambles Bolton is de facto independent. He could declare himself sovereign and the worst he would have to fear would be a stern admonition. The same would apply to whomever takes his place. 

Not that I think Bolton is just going to go away. What I see as the most likely result is that the North will remain fractured for the remainder of the series. 

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Roose himself I think could hold the North just fine. People only suspect he was involved in the Red Wedding; he has plausible deniability as anything said about him is just hearsay. He can claim that his men were spared because he arrivedf late and they did not have time to mingle. He himself was spared because he was married to a Frey. The Crown let him bend the knee and then gave him the North, which was occupied and blocked off by the Iron Born at this time and under threat from wildlings as well.

 

If there is no Stannis in the North to rally the resistance against him then it will be much harder for resentful lords to take up arms. It is the presence of Stannis and his additional troops that makes armed rebellion possible. Without it the North will need that decade to replenish their levies and stores while winter rolls through. By that time emotions will have cooled a bit.  It all depends on if he can get Ramsay out of the way and how.

 

In the end, Bolton/Stark/Dustin/Lannister/Baratheon -- it's all the same in terms of governance. Some rulers will be good, some will be bad. Roose would be mostly pretty good I should think, if he has the sense to get rid of Ramsay. Lock him up and Roose can just sire sons by "Arya" himself and claim they are Ramsay's. Why not?

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On 8/15/2018 at 4:08 PM, The Sleeper said:

That is not evidence that is a statement.

No, it is evidence. So far the evidence from the books have shown there to be more Bolton troops than Manderly, this may well change in the remaining two books,  but as it stands the evidence is with the Boltons.

On 8/15/2018 at 4:08 PM, The Sleeper said:

 

That the Manderlys have more resources is also established.

no, what is established is that they are the richest bannerman of the Starks, you are speculating about them having the most resources. 

 

On 8/15/2018 at 4:08 PM, The Sleeper said:

 

That is also what evidence means.

By all means quote this evidence.

On 8/15/2018 at 4:08 PM, The Sleeper said:

 

You can choose to ignore it if you wish.

Ignore what? 

On 8/15/2018 at 4:08 PM, The Sleeper said:

After all we haven't seen the Hightower's army.

Well actually we have, they were involved with Renly and at the battle of Blackwater. 

More importantly we actually have evidence for them being the most powerful Reach vassal.

"What is Lord Hightower doing?" Sam blurted. "My father always said he was as wealthy as the Lannisters, and could command thrice as many swords as any of Highgarden's other bannermen."

There is no such evidence for the Manderly's. What we do have evidence for is that they are the richest and have the most heavy horse, we have no idea about their overall strength but from what we have actually seen the Bolton's appear to be stronger given the numbers we have been told about.

On 8/15/2018 at 4:08 PM, The Sleeper said:

 

According to you they must not have any. 

Please don't make up arguments others have not made, it is a cheap way to try and win an argument. 

 

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On 8/16/2018 at 3:40 AM, The Sleeper said:

The Manderlys are not willing to fight the Boltons just to put a Stark to the throne. Rather it is the means not the end in itself. Part of the reason is survival. They had their differences with the Boltons and the latter will sure try to curb their power or find someway to subdue them in order to secure their rule. The other part is ambition. Gaining custody or Rickon would mean they could rule in his name for quite a while come out of the affair with their prominence and power increased. Marrying him to Wylla would also mean they could a descendant of theirs to the North's throne.

They wouldn't be the only house to harbor ambitions. Currently most of them have been severely weakened and are considerable disarray to think much past survival but eventually some would think why should the Boltons be in charge and not them. It is only tradition, but only the Starks are considered legitimate in the North. The same applies with the Lannisters in the West, the Arryn in the Vale and the Targaryens over all of Westeros. It is the reason the Boltons made up an Arya to marry to Ramsay. 

The South is largely irrelevant, when they are not in it. Even at the best of times any meaningful intervention from the Throne would require a huge investment of resources and manpower with low odds of success and most in the South don't think it is worth it to begin with. In the current conditions with the Throne in shambles Bolton is de facto independent. He could declare himself sovereign and the worst he would have to fear would be a stern admonition. The same would apply to whomever takes his place. 

Not that I think Bolton is just going to go away. What I see as the most likely result is that the North will remain fractured for the remainder of the series. 

The Boltons wanted to marry "arya" to soften the social resistance.  The Boltons are the new managers of the North.  The Iron Throne gave them the North and that makes them legitimate.  A Northman who thinks it should be his family is wrong because the authority comes from King's Landing.  They lost the rebellion and got their butts kicked.  They don't get to refuse.

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9 minutes ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

The Boltons wanted to marry "arya" to soften the social resistance.  The Boltons are the new managers of the North.  The Iron Throne gave them the North and that makes them legitimate.  A Northman who thinks it should be his family is wrong because the authority comes from King's Landing.  They lost the rebellion and got their butts kicked.  They don't get to refuse.

If there was anyone on the Iron Throne who might have done anything about it or even particularly cared, that might have been an argument. 

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On 8/11/2018 at 12:02 PM, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

Giant Ice Spider posted a topic on the subforum that made me think about the Boltons.  Be warned, this is another "what if" question that our member either love or hate.  

What if . . . . . . . . .

  1. there is no threat from the white walkers.
  2. a long winter is not coming but normal winter.
  3. the Lannisters allow the Boltons to have permanent control of the north under King Tommen.
  4. Fat Walda births many children, girls and boys.
  5. Time frame is ten years after the red wedding.

What will the north be like under the rule of House Bolton?   

Assuming all of the above is true - I could see Roose disinheriting Ramsey and choosing one of his children from Walda. Why?

 

1. Ramsey is a lunatic and even Roose knows it.

Roose: People fear you.

Ramsay: Good.

Roose: You are mistaken. It is not good. No tales were ever told of me. Do you think I would be sitting here if it were otherwise? Your amusements are your own, I will not chide you on that count, but you must be more discreet. A peaceful land, a quiet people. That has always been my rule. Make it yours.

2. To further the Frey alliance.

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On 8/15/2018 at 9:20 PM, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

Eventually, yes, they will move on.  They have in the past and they will again.

I don’t think that you can forget and move on from thousands and thousands of years of history. The Starks governed the North for so long and are very much loved, its going to take a lot for people to move on if ever. 

“The North Remembers” I don’t think this quote is in the books ust to sound badass. 

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