The Meereenese Knot started at the Tower of Joy in 2005

[The Map Guy]

41 minutes ago, Nevets said:

The decision to split AFFC was made well before 2005, about 2 years or so, I believe, so Meera wasn't going to appear in it in any event, given that she was well to the North, and AFFC is in the South.  And AFFC was an instant best-seller, and the show was developed sometime afterwards, and was broadcast before the publication of ADWD.  Soo Martin was sufficiently well-established he could do whatever he pleased by that point.  No need to change anything.

Also, mom dying and her child being hidden to keep him safe from the parents' enemies is a plot so commonplace it is practically cliché, especially in fantasy circles.  Adding a twin is a logical extension, and one that nobody would think is plagiarism.

Plus there is nothing to connect the two.  And the Meereenese Knot is adequately explained as being the difficulties of coinciding events in Meereen, and finding POVs to cover them.  Nothing more.

I agree that the decision to split AFFC was made before 2005. But we can't confirm that Meera & Bran chapters will still be missing in AFFC, whether George Lucas or not. All this is your speculation vs. my speculation.

But these are still the FACTS of 2005 and later:

May 19th 2005 - Star Wars come out

May 29th 2005 - GRRM announces a split of AFFC, but never said which characters

October 2005 - AFFC comes out with no Bran, Jon, and Dany chapters.

ADWD should of been ready within one or two years after 2005 since he wrote some much material already.

It took six years for ADWD to come out in 2011.

Coincidence timeline? Maybe its a coincidence...but after coincidences and coincidences and coincidences...you get a feeling its not a coincidence anymore, and something was done intentional here.

This was the year 2005, George Lucas is much more popular than GRRM. He hasn't had his HBO show to propel him to the superstar author we know now in 2018.

My theory is that GRRM in 2005, decided to suspend the R+L=J&M from AFFC for the moment, since he was going to split it anyways. He suspended it so he can ponder on what to do with a twins story that may jeopardize his writing career at that moment. Maybe because he didn't publish R+L=J&M in October 2005 AFFC, he avoided backlash with the Star Wars story and fans. Since he avoided this backlash that never happened, HBO gave him a show. Cutting the R+L=J&M knot some time between 2005 and 2011, six years, was probably the right thing to do.  

ADWD should came out not too long after AFFC, but it didn't...which lead me to believe GRRM did a lot of re-writes, including Meera no longer being a Stark Targaryen.

 

 

[The Map Guy]

14 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

If only present-day Lucasfilm listened to their fans...

Zero textual support anywhere for Arya or Lyanna being notably short.

Malnourished or not, such a profound height difference doesn't occur in a single lifetime. Even if thousands generations of crannogmen did produce an average height of a ten-year-old, a child brought from somewhere else wouldn't shrink like that.

BTW, what exactly does TWOIAF state about malnourishment? A diet of fish and frogs, though certainly uncommon for an average Westerosi, is not exactly lacking in proteins.

Page 140 of TWOIAF said crannogmen are "small in statue"...most likely from "inadequate nourishment"..."for grains do not flourish"

 

[Ralphis Baratheon]

I'm so close to believing this theory, but just can't fully buy in right now. If only you had one more super-duper secret convincing clue you just might have me.

[Dorian Martell's son]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

If only present-day Lucasfilm listened to their fans...

some fans are pretty horrible these days 

[Kandrax]

I heard this before and i think it started with the show thanks to Meera having same hair as Jon..

[Ygrain]

5 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

Page 140 of TWOIAF said crannogmen are "small in statue"...most likely from "inadequate nourishment"..."for grains do not flourish"

Which is a nice assumption on the Maester's part but not supported by anything we have seen so far in-verse, and the RL archaeology actually proves the contrary - hunter-gatherer populations were taller and healthier than the agricultural ones, as prevalence of grain diet meant less nutrients and weaker immunity towards diseases which, in turn, evolved and spread more easily in large permanent settlements.

Either way, a crannogman moving to live outside the crannog doesn't spring up to two metres, and a non-crannogman child doesn't shrink half the size just because it is nourished in the crannogs. If the nourishment is as poor as the maesters assume (which I don't believe), the child may not grow up to its full potential, but will not be so notably short as the typical crannogmen are.

4 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

some fans are pretty horrible these days 

Yeah, they are all sexist, racist, misogynist, overweight white males threatened by women, or so the narrative goes. If GRRM served us Ned Stark trying to murder Jon in his sleep or a superslow horse chase relying on horses running out of fodder, I'd have a very bad feeling about the ASOIAF fans, as well.

[Ygrain]

Also, one thing concerning clues: things like "kings hiding under s(S)now" and the like, while certainly enticing, do not point towards anything by themselves. Their importance, if it exists, relies on putting together the breadcrumbs of facts scattered across the pages - the mystery of Jon's mother, fourteen years old lies, secrets too dangerous to share, Lyanna in her bed of blood, the haunting promises, the associations with blue roses popping up at various opportunities...Only after you have put these together, you can start picking on various wordplays or symbolism that acquires another layer of meaning when you assume RLJ. 

The problem with Meera as Jon's secret twin is that no such primary network of little facts can be established. She doesn't have a long face or grey eyes, is not a wee bit taller than an average crannogman, her hair is not dyed brown to hide Targ colouring...

Plus, the issue shared by all theories about a secret twin or Lyanna's child being somebody else: Ned never, ever, thinks about Lyanna's (other) child, even though he considers his promises to her as fulfilled. Yet, I doubt very much that any of the promises went, "give my child to XY and never think about him/her again". It just doesn't make any sense.

[dmfn]

They can't all be secret Targs

[SirArthur]

6 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

May 19th 2005 - Star Wars come out

May 29th 2005 - GRRM announces a split of AFFC, but never said which characters

October 2005 - AFFC comes out with no Bran, Jon, and Dany chapters.

 

I think you are far too obsessed with Star Wars. The known huge homages include Robert Jordan, Lovecraft, Tolkien and tad Williams.

Especially  Memory, Sorrow and Thorn has far too many parallels with early ASOIAF. Far more than a Star Wars twin split has.

And from the other prespective, I do not understand what was so new or interesting about Star Wars III, that changed the perspective of Star wars fans. The fact that Leia does remember her mother ?

I don't get it, neither as a Star wars fan nor as a ASOIAF fan. Just 2 dates close to each other. 

 

edit: 

and by the way this

Quote

A noble person falls in love with a royal person and starts a tragic love story. The mother dies giving birth to a set of twin prince and princess. The twins are separate and protected by heroes from the wrath of a new empire. The twins have a big destiny to fulfill.

is almost The empire strikes back from 1980. Without the mother dying. 

[Unacosamedarisa]

If Meera's a secret Stark, how come she didn't get a Direwolf? Seems a bit out of order that all of the Starks of the current generation got a pet Direwolf... except Meera. Why couldn't the litter be 7 pups instead of 6?

[Megorova]

Jon has turned 15 years old, in late 298, some time after his arrival to Castle Black, and prior Harvest Feast of that year. In 299 Jon turned 16 years old, prior Harvest Feast of that year. During HF-299 Meera and Jojen has arrived to Winterfell, at that moment in time, Meera was still 15. She has turned 16 some time later that year, prior New Year's Eve of 300. So Jon's birthday is prior Harvest Feast, and Meera's is after Harvest Feast. Most likely, GRRM's HF is based on American Thanksgiving, which is celebrated on the last Thursday of November. So Meera was born in ASOIAF's equivalent of December, and Jon was born in late September. He has turned 15 yo approximately one month after arrival to Castle Black, and Harvest Feast was some time later than Jon's name day.

By the time of arrival of Robert's party to Winterfell, there has already passed 15 years since Ned and Cat's wedding, and Robb's conceivement, but not yet full 15 years since Lyanna's death. Robb's birthday is slightly later than Jon's. N&C wedding happened in early 283, and Robb was born 40 weeks later. For Robb to be born in 283, the latest date of his parents' wedding is late March of 283. So the possible timeframe of that wedding is January-March 283, and possible timeframe of Robb's birthday is early October - December 283. Robb's birthday is between Jon's and Meera's, and Meera's is after Harvest Feast. In addition to that we also know from GRRM, that Jon is 8-9 months or so older than Dany. Dany was born 9 months after Rhaella departed from King's Landing, already after they have received news about Rhaegar's death. From Dany's chapters we know approximately, when is her birthday. She turned 14 years old, when she was traveling towards Vaes Dothrak, that same day she realised that she's pregnant. She was still 14, when her people arrived to Vaes Tolorro, and she turned 15 sometime prior they have arrived to Qarth. When Dany has met Quaithe second time, after birth of her dragons, that hatched on verge of 298/299, based on Quaithe's words, has passed less than 6 months. So we know, that Dany has turned 15 years old earlier than June of 299. We also know when in the year is Sansa's birthday, Joffrey's, Bran's, Tommen's, Myrcella's. So based on combined timeframe of dates of their birth, it's obvious, that Meera was born later than Jon, that's 100000000% definite. With usage of known information, about their birthdays, we can even pinpoint exact months when they were born, for all characters.

And there's no reason for Howland to pretend that Meera was born not on the day, when she was actually born. No one would have ever connected Jon Snow from Winterfell and Meera Reed from The Neck, even if they did had a name day on the same day. So her birthday is really AFTER the Harvest Feast, and Jon's birthday is prior it. They are NOT twins.

[The Map Guy]

7 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

I'm so close to believing this theory, but just can't fully buy in right now. If only you had one more super-duper secret convincing clue you just might have me.

Soon

[The Map Guy]

3 hours ago, Kandrax said:

I heard this before and i think it started with the show thanks to Meera having same hair as Jon..

The theory did start in show because the actors looked alike.

But I was able to find clues in the books

[The Map Guy]

2 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Which is a nice assumption on the Maester's part but not supported by anything we have seen so far in-verse, and the RL archaeology actually proves the contrary - hunter-gatherer populations were taller and healthier than the agricultural ones, as prevalence of grain diet meant less nutrients and weaker immunity towards diseases which, in turn, evolved and spread more easily in large permanent settlements.

Either way, a crannogman moving to live outside the crannog doesn't spring up to two metres, and a non-crannogman child doesn't shrink half the size just because it is nourished in the crannogs. If the nourishment is as poor as the maesters assume (which I don't believe), the child may not grow up to its full potential, but will not be so notably short as the typical crannogmen are.

Yeah, they are all sexist, racist, misogynist, overweight white males threatened by women, or so the narrative goes. If GRRM served us Ned Stark trying to murder Jon in his sleep or a superslow horse chase relying on horses running out of fodder, I'd have a very bad feeling about the ASOIAF fans, as well.

Too much science. No offense. Just accept what GRRM gave us so far in TWOIAF.

[The Map Guy]

2 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Also, one thing concerning clues: things like "kings hiding under s(S)now" and the like, while certainly enticing, do not point towards anything by themselves. Their importance, if it exists, relies on putting together the breadcrumbs of facts scattered across the pages - the mystery of Jon's mother, fourteen years old lies, secrets too dangerous to share, Lyanna in her bed of blood, the haunting promises, the associations with blue roses popping up at various opportunities...Only after you have put these together, you can start picking on various wordplays or symbolism that acquires another layer of meaning when you assume RLJ. 

The problem with Meera as Jon's secret twin is that no such primary network of little facts can be established. She doesn't have a long face or grey eyes, is not a wee bit taller than an average crannogman, her hair is not dyed brown to hide Targ colouring...

Plus, the issue shared by all theories about a secret twin or Lyanna's child being somebody else: Ned never, ever, thinks about Lyanna's (other) child, even though he considers his promises to her as fulfilled. Yet, I doubt very much that any of the promises went, "give my child to XY and never think about him/her again". It just doesn't make any sense.

To be fair, no one was looking for Meera to be a Stark-Targaryen, that's why no one found anything. I personally decided to look for it and found more than expected.

GRRM is already hiding clues for R+L=J and everyone is waiting for it....but he had to hide more for R+L=M because it was to be his big twist

It was easier to hide Meera because she had less screen time

[The Map Guy]

1 hour ago, SirArthur said:

I think you are far too obsessed with Star Wars. The known huge homages include Robert Jordan, Lovecraft, Tolkien and tad Williams.

Especially  Memory, Sorrow and Thorn has far too many parallels with early ASOIAF. Far more than a Star Wars twin split has.

And from the other prespective, I do not understand what was so new or interesting about Star Wars III, that changed the perspective of Star wars fans. The fact that Leia does remember her mother ?

I don't get it, neither as a Star wars fan nor as a ASOIAF fan. Just 2 dates close to each other. 

 

edit: 

and by the way this

is almost The empire strikes back from 1980. Without the mother dying. 

You have to put yourself in GRRM's shoes in 2005.

If this was a poker game, Lucas has the very very big chip stack and GRRM has the shortish stack. Lucas can afford to make a mistake, GRRM couldn't...so GRRM folded to Lucas to live another day. Its the year 2018 now, maybe GRRM has the bigger chip stack now.

[The Map Guy]

51 minutes ago, Unacosamedarisa said:

If Meera's a secret Stark, how come she didn't get a Direwolf? Seems a bit out of order that all of the Starks of the current generation got a pet Direwolf... except Meera. Why couldn't the litter be 7 pups instead of 6?

I guess the quick answer is that there are no direwolves near Greywater Watch

[kissdbyfire]

2 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

I guess the quick answer is that there are no direwolves near Greywater Watch

It doesn't matter. The point is, all Stark-blooded kids of this generation got a gift from the OG - or whatever explanation you subscribe to. And it makes zero sense, narrative-wise, to have a Stark-blooded kid singled out and not getting one. Unless, of course, Martin was planning on doing an asspull, but Martin doesn't do that. So, there.

[Unacosamedarisa]

2 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

I guess the quick answer is that there are no direwolves near Greywater Watch

There weren't any Direwolves near Winterfell either... until there were. 6 of them, newborns, 4 male, 2 female, to match the 6 Starks of the current generation, of which there's 4 males and 2 females. 

[The Map Guy]

27 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Jon has turned 15 years old, in late 298, some time after his arrival to Castle Black, and prior Harvest Feast of that year. In 299 Jon turned 16 years old, prior Harvest Feast of that year. During HF-299 Meera and Jojen has arrived to Winterfell, at that moment in time, Meera was still 15. She has turned 16 some time later that year, prior New Year's Eve of 300. So Jon's birthday is prior Harvest Feast, and Meera's is after Harvest Feast. Most likely, GRRM's HF is based on American Thanksgiving, which is celebrated on the last Thursday of November. So Meera was born in ASOIAF's equivalent of December, and Jon was born in late September. He has turned 15 yo approximately one month after arrival to Castle Black, and Harvest Feast was some time later than Jon's name day.

By the time of arrival of Robert's party to Winterfell, there has already passed 15 years since Ned and Cat's wedding, and Robb's conceivement, but not yet full 15 years since Lyanna's death. Robb's birthday is slightly later than Jon's. N&C wedding happened in early 283, and Robb was born 40 weeks later. For Robb to be born in 283, the latest date of his parents' wedding is late March of 283. So the possible timeframe of that wedding is January-March 283, and possible timeframe of Robb's birthday is early October - December 283. Robb's birthday is between Jon's and Meera's, and Meera's is after Harvest Feast. In addition to that we also know from GRRM, that Jon is 8-9 months or so older than Dany. Dany was born 9 months after Rhaella departed from King's Landing, already after they have received news about Rhaegar's death. From Dany's chapters we know approximately, when is her birthday. She turned 14 years old, when she was traveling towards Vaes Dothrak, that same day she realised that she's pregnant. She was still 14, when her people arrived to Vaes Tolorro, and she turned 15 sometime prior they have arrived to Qarth. When Dany has met Quaithe second time, after birth of her dragons, that hatched on verge of 298/299, based on Quaithe's words, has passed less than 6 months. So we know, that Dany has turned 15 years old earlier than June of 299. We also know when in the year is Sansa's birthday, Joffrey's, Bran's, Tommen's, Myrcella's. So based on combined timeframe of dates of their birth, it's obvious, that Meera was born later than Jon, that's 100000000% definite. With usage of known information, about their birthdays, we can even pinpoint exact months when they were born, for all characters.

And there's no reason for Howland to pretend that Meera was born not on the day, when she was actually born. No one would have ever connected Jon Snow from Winterfell and Meera Reed from The Neck, even if they did had a name day on the same day. So her birthday is really AFTER the Harvest Feast, and Jon's birthday is prior it. They are NOT twins.

Thank you for the research. That is a lot of math. But I'm not even sure if GRRM did all this math specifically. All I know is GRRM listed Robb, Jon & Meera with 283 AC as their birth years.