US politics: No sub rosa Omarosa

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

27 minutes ago, Bonnot OG said:

MSNBC interviewing Steve Bannon tomorrow. They. Will. Never. Fucking . Learn. To. Stop. Interviewing. Fucking. Far. Right. Fucking. Bigots. 

 

Nuh uh. he's totally... he's... Well yeah, he's a total fucking bigot.

Maybe he just needs a hug... from Ebola.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

3 minutes ago, Darth Richard II said:

It was a movie news site. See if you can guess what story we were discussing!

A movie that involves Nazis?  That's... a lot.

[Darth Richard II]

3 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

A movie that involves Nazis?  That's... a lot.

Nope. Think of a big film news thing going on that involves the “alt right”.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

15 minutes ago, Darth Richard II said:

Nope. Think of a big film news thing going on that involves the “alt right”.

I literally have no idea what you're talking about.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

Possibly the best opening sentence in a news article I've read in a long time.

https://www.theroot.com/feel-bold-enough-to-call-black-bus-riders-in-dc-the-n-w-1828391420

[Darth Richard II]

4 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

I literally have no idea what you're talking about.

Oh it was over the Gunn firing from Disney and the people who instigated the whole thing. You’re no fun. :p

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

2 minutes ago, Darth Richard II said:

Oh it was over the Gunn firing from Disney and the people who instigated the whole thing. You’re no fun. :p

Ooooooh.  That must have been a pretty random discussion thread.

[Darth Richard II]

1 minute ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Ooooooh.  That must have been a pretty random discussion thread.

Well the person behind it is the pizzagate guy who works for Breitbart, so not as random as you’d think. 

(I guess he also used to post here a looooong time ago)

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

2 hours ago, Altherion said:

There were state-by-state predictions and it was not supposed to be that close. Here's a New York Times summary of the various aggregators immediately prior to the election (so yes, it includes Comey and everything else). The polls themselves were OK, but the aggregators messed up and so did the prediction markets.

I'm maxed out on my free NYT articles, so I can't read it.  I believe you though.  And yes, 538 tends to have a much better track record.

The only thing I can I can think of is this: any sort of predictive framework has to assume a certain context, or at least a degree of confidence in how that context is evolving.  When they get it wrong, it can be spectacularly wrong.

• When Bernie Sanders can give Hillary Clinton a run for her money while unapologetically identifying as a "democratic socialist"
• When Jeb Bush, with more money than god, doesn't win a single primary
• When an unqualified sack of orange doughnut batter, born into obscene wealth, on his third supermodel wife, and literally lives in a gold plated New York penthouse is embraced by the religious right and becomes the voice of the working man.

...it should have been obvious to everyone that the frame has shifted massively.  In fairness, it wasn't entirely obvious to me at the time.  It wasn't until sometime after the election that it occurred to me that Bernie Sanders could have actually won it.  Some people might disagree.  I used to be one of them.

And now we are seeing what all that energy has wrought.  Trump doesn't need o be beaten in 2020, he needs to be destroyed.  Like, a double digit loss  in the popular vote kind of destroyed.

And if someone could remind Jill Stein that Justice Democrats have accomplished more in two years than the Greens have in 20, that would be good too.

[Fragile Bird]

Not political exactly, but the Onion did some of the finest trolling of Fox I’ve ever seen. Fox announced the death of Aretha Franklin yesterday and managed to show a picture of Patti LaBelle by mistake. That was the Onion’s headline, and they showed a picture of Gladys Knight.

I really need to figure out how to share stuff on my phone one of these days. The comments are priceless.

[OldGimletEye]

19 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

Yeah, one of the versions of blaming liberals going around is that liberals we're too mean to Romney in 2012, and at fault for how conservatives reacted to that loss 

 

18 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

There was also the "Takers and Makers comment",  which was when the Right Wing beef du jour was poor people not paying enough taxes.  Also, Romney had to do the most amazing contortions to attack Obama from the right.

Maybe Obama just wasn't that beatable in 2012.

 

18 hours ago, Morpheus said:

 One story I am sick of hearing is the “The Fall of Paul Ryan”, the principled Conservative who sold himself to Trump. The fucker was always a Randian nightmare who viewed poverty as a character flaw,  a weasel without a spine. Romney selecting him as his running mate made any attempts to paint himself as a moderate laughable.

Back in 2012, I thought we were seeing the golden age of Republican Party and conservative nuttery.

I was wrong.

It would seem, Republicans just got nuttier, leading to the rise of Trump.
Still the period around 2012 was bad. That was the era of Sara Palin running around saying nutty things. It was when people like Glenn Beck were running around hatching nutball conspiracy theories and conservatives eating that shit up like it was the best thing evah!
It was the age of  Obama the super secret keynan muslim socialist, birtherism, gold standard wing nuttery, etc.,, etc.

And by 2012, it should have been apparent to anyone, that the main Republican Party goal was simply to destroy the presidency of Barack Obama, after Obama, perhaps naively thought he could work with the Republican Party.

And in 2012, we were 4 years into the GFC and for four years the Republican Party and conservatives were running around bleating out nonsense about what to do about it. Around 2012 is when Puke Gingrich made the comment that if Obama had just done things like Reagan did it, all it be awesome. Pure nonsense. Back in the 1980s we weren't in a liquidity trap. In 2012, we were.

Conservatives had no idea what they were talking about. They also made up fairy tales about the ACA.

Throw in Romney's 47% comment and Paul "Numbers Guy" makers and takers horseshit and it's hard to think of a good reason why anyone shouldn't have a hard nosed attitude towards the Republican Party and Mitt Romney.

In short, fuck Mitt Romney and conservative civility concern trolling.

Conservatives were going crazy before Mitt Romney and there is no particular reason to think that straining to be "civil" towards Romney or Republicans would have produced anything positive. In fact, there is more reason to think that attempts to be "civil" towards Republicans would just be viewed by Republicans as a sign of weakness and lack of resolve, rather than a sign of good faith.

By 2012, Republicans had burned the "civility" bridge.

When Romney picked Randian fanboy Ryan as his running mate, that should have shattered any illusion that Romney was going to be a "moderate and sensible" Republican.
One benefit though of Romney's VP pick was watching Biden destroy the "thinker" from the "Young Guns". Before the debate, conservatives were all fired up to see their "big brain" take down Biden. Ryan was supposed to teach Biden and the libs a thing or two.

And well that didn't quite pan out they way conservatives thought, as Biden basically mopped the floor with Ryan's sorry ass.

Thank you Uncle Joe for showing what a little pretentious knuckle head Ryan really was.
And of course after the debate, cue the conservative civility concern trolling. After the debate, man oh man, were conservatives running around crying their little old eyes out about Biden's lack of civility as he tore apart their "big thinker".

On a side note, one can only think that Ryan's pompousness and his belief in his own big brain is why he found Ayn Rand so appealing whose, own opinion of her intellectual greatness and self importance knew no bounds. Rand, a life longer smoker, seemingly tried to justify her severe smoking habit with some trash like, " a cigarette symbolizes a fire in my mind".

LOL. What a pompous bullshit artist.

Back in the day, when I partook of nicotine if somebody had asked me, "OGE, why do you smoke" I think my answer would have been something like, "cause I'm a nicotine addict, why else would I do this shit to myself. Now excuse me while  I enjoy this pack of cigarettes with two pots of coffee." It certainly didn't put any "fire in my mind", though I did enjoy getting my fix.
 

[Zorral]

Glad to awaken to the news that the how-many-millions-is-this-gonna-cost-again? military parade to honor the orange nazi's destruction of everything even barely decent has been postponed at the advise and consent of the pentagon.  Particularly so as today am heading up to the Saratoga battlefields of 1777.

Puleeze though, folks, don't ever call Malania a supermodel.  She was barely a model at all, never even coming within solid bookings for three months ahead.  Her real career was the eye candy, maybe plus benefits, circuit.

 

[Jace, Extat]

31 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Glad to awaken to the news that the how-many-millions-is-this-gonna-cost-again? military parade to honor the orange nazi's destruction of everything even barely decent has been postponed at the advise and consent of the pentagon.  Particularly so as today am heading up to the Saratoga battlefields of 1777.

Puleeze though, folks, don't ever call Malania a supermodel.  She was barely a model at all, never even coming within solid bookings for three months ahead.  Her real career was the eye candy, maybe plus benefits, circuit.

 

Give a prayer to Benedict Arnold while you're there. He's now the 2nd most despicable traitor in the history of our nation.

[Morpheus]

The Manafort trial could possibly be heading toward a hung jury, deliberation is taking longer than expected and the jurors submitted a list of questions including asking for a definition of “reasonable doubt”.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

5 hours ago, Casablanca Birdie said:

Not political exactly, but the Onion did some of the finest trolling of Fox I’ve ever seen. Fox announced the death of Aretha Franklin yesterday and managed to show a picture of Patti LaBelle by mistake. That was the Onion’s headline, and they showed a picture of Gladys Knight.

I really need to figure out how to share stuff on my phone one of these days. The comments are priceless.

Holy shit they actually did.

I that Fox News' passive aggressive way of saying "We don't give a shit about Aretha Franklin"?

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

39 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

The Manafort trial could be heading toward a hung jury, deliberation is taking longer than expected and the jurors submitted a list of questions including asking for a definition of “reasonable doubt”.

On all charges? If it's hung on all charges, either someone got paid or someone is being held hostage.

[aceluby]

42 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

The Manafort trial could be heading toward a hung jury, deliberation is taking longer than expected and the jurors submitted a list of questions including asking for a definition of “reasonable doubt”.

That is insane.  Mountains of evidence and testimony with no defense.  What the hell is the world coming to when an asshat like that gets away with fraud on a massive scale while people rot in jail for fucking drug use charges.  It's sick how much we worship the rich in this country.

[Morpheus]

14 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

On all charges? If it's hung on all charges, either someone got paid or someone is being held hostage.

I don’t know about all charges, or about any really, but asking about reasonable doubt at this stage is weird. It looks like at least one person in on the fence.

[Jace, Extat]

'MERICA

He's just a simple man trying to make his way in the universe.

 

[Frog Eater]

52 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

The Manafort trial could possibly be heading toward a hung jury, deliberation is taking longer than expected and the jurors submitted a list of questions including asking for a definition of “reasonable doubt”.

He will certainly be guilty of failure to file the FBARs, because thats statutory. . But that is only a civil penalty that he will pay. He can even write an abatement request letter pleading no "willful neglect" and request they get abated. Although he would probably just pay his fines and move on with his life.