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The Illyrio/Aegon thing


Lord Varys

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10 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Actually, I'm pretty sure that the Harrenhal Tournament happened in early 281, because I doubt it was announced a year before it took place. And, from what we are told about Elia's health, she almost certainly wasn't pregnant at Harrenhal. Thus, Ashara's baby must have been the one born first. But, I will give you that the babies were probably no more than 3-5 months apart in age (assuming, of course, that Ashara's baby didn't die). Therefore, my original comment about the babies being too far apart in age was in error.

The False Spring, which lasted less than two months, occurred towards the end of 281 AC, as winter returned into the beginning of 282 AC, and Elia definitely had to be pregnant at the Harrenhal Tourney.

Even if Elia and Rhaegar wed and conceived on the first day of 280 AC, Rhaenys would be born around the 9th-10th month of 280 AC, and Elia was bedridden for half a year, so Aegon wouldn't be conceived much earlier than the 3rd-4th month of 281 AC, and born in the last months of 281 AC or first of 282 AC.

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3 hours ago, Lady Barbrey said:

Nobody said we believed it, just that it was a possibility narratively speaking, and there are some hints that could play out.  And nobody said she disguised him either, that would only be true if she is Septa Lemore, which I'm not arguing for or against here, but on the whole don't believe. In answer to why she might run away in the first place, I can imagine a number of reasons without a shred of evidence to back them up.  But honestly none of the Septa Lemore is Ashara or Aegon as Blackfyre or Brightflame or real Aegon or random Targ have much to back them up either.

The only thing we know is that Aegon looks like a Targ - or a Dayne.  And that Illyrio and Varys have been backing him since he was quite young so as to present him as the true king of Westeros. And that Illyrio might have been fond of him. The number of scenarios that could fill the gaps between are plenteous.

So to consider Aegon might be Ashara's non-stillborn child, born of a Stark, is completely within the bounds as I see it, and narratively imo more satisfying. I think we need to leave the question open while making our guesses.  For now, I'm going with the Blackfyre theory while hoping for the Stark-Dayne one, and not ruling out any other possibilities except that Aegon is really Rhaegar and Elias son, which logistically and thematically speaking makes the least sense, as well-argued by others on this thread.

Yea, I’m not trying to argue or anything I was just wondering. Like to me, I can’t think of any reason she would leave starfall if she was having a stark bastard. I think she might leave if she knew some kind of secret like rlj. But even that kind of falls short, cause Ned took Jon.

I have an open mind about his background , and I’m not quite sure of any one theory. I do lean towards that he is not a Targaryen and I do think there is a good chance that he is a Dayne.

I actually think Elia being his mother is probably the best option out of the blackfyre or Ashara theory. I think Elia has far more relevance to the story as she is the cornerstone of the Dornish story and also was the stain of Robert’s reign.

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

The False Spring, which lasted less than two months, occurred towards the end of 281 AC, as winter returned into the beginning of 282 AC, and Elia definitely had to be pregnant at the Harrenhal Tourney.

Even if Elia and Rhaegar wed and conceived on the first day of 280 AC, Rhaenys would be born around the 9th-10th month of 280 AC, and Elia was bedridden for half a year, so Aegon wouldn't be conceived much earlier than the 3rd-4th month of 281 AC, and born in the last months of 281 AC or first of 282 AC.

I think this is one of those circumstances where GRRM warned about trying to figure things out too exactly. There are so many things wrong with this interpretation. The first question would be, "If the tourney was announced in 280, then how did the people who put this tourney together know they were going to get a good two months of weather right at that time?" Answer: The tourney was probably planned and held closer in time. Like I said, GRRM was probably playing fast and loose with the time frames here. A medically fragile Elia Martell would not have been traveling while pregnant.

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22 hours ago, Lady Barbrey said:

Oh gosh I just looked something up and saw that Illyrio thought Dany looked so much like his dead wife he wanted her.  Barristan says that Dany looks so much like Ashara she could be her daughter.

Was Serra really Ashara, and that whole story about her hair colour and the Lysene whorehouse a complete fabrication for Tyrion's benefit.  

Are those Ashara Dayne's hands in his box?  Lol.  I'm still not taking this seriously but that was such a morbid thought I had to share. 

Can you point me to where I can find the bolded?

 

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1 hour ago, Lollygag said:

Can you point me to where I can find the bolded?

 

No because it isn't there that I can find.  I read on a Reddit thread that Illyrio said Dany looked so much like his dead wife he wanted to bed her, but no source quoted. I looked it up just now and Illyrio merely says he wanted to bed her cause she's even lovelier than his second wife, ADWD Tyrion II, unless he says something to Dany herself she recounts in her POV somewhere amongst all five books.   Sorry! I should delete the post in case a virus begins : (

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On 11/2/2018 at 7:38 AM, Lady Barbrey said:

Barristan was told Ashara was dishonored by a Stark at Harrenhal (Brandon was very much alive)

That's not entirely true. She was dishonored at Harrenhal, and she "looked to Stark" (instead of Barristan). That might imply "Stark" dishonored her after she "looked" to him, or that she "looked to Stark" for help after having been dishonored. The quote does not state which option is correct here. But Barristan does not state here that the Stark was the person who dishonored her. The identity of the man is left unknown in the quote.

 

But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark? (ADWD, The Kingbreaker)

 

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@Lady Barbrey, this is the quote I think you might be referring to.

The far man grew pensive. "Daenerys was half a child when she came to me, yet fairer even than my second wife, so lovely I was tempted to claim her for myself. Such a fearful thing, however, I knew I should get no joy from coupling with her. Instead I summoned a bedwarner and fucked her vigorously until the madness passed. If truth be told, I did not think Daenerys would survive long amongst the horselords."

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9 hours ago, Lady Barbrey said:

No because it isn't there that I can find.  I read on a Reddit thread that Illyrio said Dany looked so much like his dead wife he wanted to bed her, but no source quoted. I looked it up just now and Illyrio merely says he wanted to bed her cause she's even lovelier than his second wife, ADWD Tyrion II, unless he says something to Dany herself she recounts in her POV somewhere amongst all five books.   Sorry! I should delete the post in case a virus begins : ( 

Gotcha.

Noticed something interesting about this passage which leads me to think that Illyrio is lying here as he definitely lied to Tyrion about Viserys. From Dany, we see that Viserys compares sleeping to her underage, undeveloped self to being with boys, horses and sheep and Viserys also has no problem giving her up in contrast to what Illyrio says.

For this reason, I have some doubt about Illyrio's wanting Dany, at least to the extend that he claims. After saying these things, he pops a lark into his mouth. A lark is a songbird and we know how GRRM feels about songs. It also puts me in mind of LF's mockingbird. Besides being a bird, a lark can be " a source of or quest for amusement or adventure" or " to engage in harmless fun or mischief" per Merriam Webster.

AGOT Daenerys I

"She's too skinny," Viserys said. His hair, the same silver-blond as hers, had been pulled back tightly behind his head and fastened with a dragonbone brooch. It was a severe look that emphasized the hard, gaunt lines of his face. He rested his hand on the hilt of the sword that Illyrio had lent him, and said, "Are you sure that Khal Drogo likes his women this young?"

"She has had her blood. She is old enough for the khal," Illyrio told him, not for the first time. "Look at her. That silver-gold hair, those purple eyes … she is the blood of old Valyria, no doubt, no doubt … and highborn, daughter of the old king, sister to the new, she cannot fail to entrance our Drogo." When he released her hand, Daenerys found herself trembling.

"I suppose," her brother said doubtfully. "The savages have queer tastes. Boys, horses, sheep …"

He smiled at her. "I'd let his whole khalasar fuck you if need be, sweet sister, all forty thousand men, and their horses too if that was what it took to get my army. Be grateful it is only Drogo. In time you may even learn to like him. Now dry your eyes. Illyrio is bringing him over, and he will not see you crying."

 

ADWD Tyrion II

Along with the blood of Aegon the Unworthy, Maegor the Cruel, and Baelor the Befuddled. "Tell me more of her."

The fat man grew pensive. "Daenerys was half a child when she came to me, yet fairer even than my second wife, so lovely I was tempted to claim her for myself. Such a fearful, furtive thing, however, I knew I should get no joy from coupling with her. Instead I summoned a bedwarmer and fucked her vigorously until the madness passed. If truth be told, I did not think Daenerys would survive for long amongst the horselords."

"That did not stop you selling her to Khal Drogo …"

"Dothraki neither buy nor sell. Say rather that her brother Viserys gave her to Drogo to win the khal's friendship. A vain young man, and greedy. Viserys lusted for his father's throne, but he lusted for Daenerys too, and was loath to give her up. The night before the princess wed he tried to steal into her bed, insisting that if he could not have her hand, he would claim her maidenhead. Had I not taken the precaution of posting guards upon her door, Viserys might have undone years of planning."

"He sounds an utter fool."

"Viserys was Mad Aerys's son, just so. Daenerys … Daenerys is quite different." He popped a roasted lark into his mouth and crunched it noisily, bones and all. "The frightened child who sheltered in my manse died on the Dothraki sea, and was reborn in blood and fire. This dragon queen who wears her name is a true Targaryen. When I sent ships to bring her home, she turned toward Slaver's Bay. In a short span of days she conquered Astapor, made Yunkai bend the knee, and sacked Meereen. Mantarys will be next, if she marches west along the old Valyrian roads. If she comes by sea, well … her fleet must take on food and water at Volantis."

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

That's not entirely true. She was dishonored at Harrenhal, and she "looked to Stark" (instead of Barristan). That might imply "Stark" dishonored her after she "looked" to him, or that she "looked to Stark" for help after having been dishonored. The quote does not state which option is correct here. But Barristan does not state here that the Stark was the person who dishonored her. The identity of the man is left unknown in the quote.

 

But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark? (ADWD, The Kingbreaker)

 

I think that quote demonstrates he believes it was a Stark. There's a small gap here that leaves room for misdirection on George's part (why bother?) but imo heavily weighted in favour of a Stark.

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7 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Gotcha.

Noticed something interesting about this passage which leads me to think that Illyrio is lying here as he definitely lied to Tyrion about Viserys. From Dany, we see that Viserys compares sleeping to her underage, undeveloped self to being with boys, horses and sheep and Viserys also has no problem giving her up in contrast to what Illyrio says.

For this reason, I have some doubt about Illyrio's wanting Dany, at least to the extend that he claims. After saying these things, he pops a lark into his mouth. A lark is a songbird and we know how GRRM feels about songs. It also puts me in mind of LF's mockingbird. Besides being a bird, a lark can be " a source of or quest for amusement or adventure" or " to engage in harmless fun or mischief" per Merriam Webster.

AGOT Daenerys I

 

"She's too skinny," Viserys said. His hair, the same silver-blond as hers, had been pulled back tightly behind his head and fastened with a dragonbone brooch. It was a severe look that emphasized the hard, gaunt lines of his face. He rested his hand on the hilt of the sword that Illyrio had lent him, and said, "Are you sure that Khal Drogo likes his women this young?"

 

"She has had her blood. She is old enough for the khal," Illyrio told him, not for the first time. "Look at her. That silver-gold hair, those purple eyes … she is the blood of old Valyria, no doubt, no doubt … and highborn, daughter of the old king, sister to the new, she cannot fail to entrance our Drogo." When he released her hand, Daenerys found herself trembling.

 

"I suppose," her brother said doubtfully. "The savages have queer tastes. Boys, horses, sheep …"

 

 

He smiled at her. "I'd let his whole khalasar fuck you if need be, sweet sister, all forty thousand men, and their horses too if that was what it took to get my army. Be grateful it is only Drogo. In time you may even learn to like him. Now dry your eyes. Illyrio is bringing him over, and he will not see you crying."

 

 

 

ADWD Tyrion II

 

Along with the blood of Aegon the Unworthy, Maegor the Cruel, and Baelor the Befuddled. "Tell me more of her."

 

The fat man grew pensive. "Daenerys was half a child when she came to me, yet fairer even than my second wife, so lovely I was tempted to claim her for myself. Such a fearful, furtive thing, however, I knew I should get no joy from coupling with her. Instead I summoned a bedwarmer and fucked her vigorously until the madness passed. If truth be told, I did not think Daenerys would survive for long amongst the horselords."

 

"That did not stop you selling her to Khal Drogo …"

 

"Dothraki neither buy nor sell. Say rather that her brother Viserys gave her to Drogo to win the khal's friendship. A vain young man, and greedy. Viserys lusted for his father's throne, but he lusted for Daenerys too, and was loath to give her up. The night before the princess wed he tried to steal into her bed, insisting that if he could not have her hand, he would claim her maidenhead. Had I not taken the precaution of posting guards upon her door, Viserys might have undone years of planning."

 

"He sounds an utter fool."

 

"Viserys was Mad Aerys's son, just so. Daenerys … Daenerys is quite different." He popped a roasted lark into his mouth and crunched it noisily, bones and all. "The frightened child who sheltered in my manse died on the Dothraki sea, and was reborn in blood and fire. This dragon queen who wears her name is a true Targaryen. When I sent ships to bring her home, she turned toward Slaver's Bay. In a short span of days she conquered Astapor, made Yunkai bend the knee, and sacked Meereen. Mantarys will be next, if she marches west along the old Valyrian roads. If she comes by sea, well … her fleet must take on food and water at Volantis."

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting catch, because another Reddit thread I read yesterday made a very convincing case that Illyrio is lying about almost everything, particularly about the Lysene pillow house woman he wedded.  And we know he lied about Varys and he being boys together in Pentos, cause Tyrion catches him on it by saying Varys is from Myr, then Illyrio recovers by saying this was later or something.  The poster on that thread felt Illyrio knew all about Tyrion from Varys, and was just using the Lysene whore story of Serra to create a bond between Tyrion and him (Tyrion, Tysha, Shae - Where do whores go?) so Tyrion would trust him.  He pointed out that "the Lysene pillow house" girl is almost a trope in Essos, referred to a few times (and we hear it more than he actually mentions) and there is a book with a tale in it re this and the window's story almost directly mirrors the story Illyrio tells, as if Illyrio stole it.  Are we allowed to link to Reddit on here?  If you're interested, I'll look for that thread again and link you to it.

This was an older post, but he did mention the hands as well as being part of the lie because Serra presumably died of greyscale and her hands would be affected first.  When I looked it up in the app, it specifically says he has her stone hands in the box, so I'm thinking that must have come from George at a later date, that the hands were stone, because where else would it have come from?

Re the lark, it reminds me of Tywin putting some kind of bird (roast quail) in his mouth that Balerion the cat snatches away!  Possible symbolic parallel?  Tywin was responsible for Rhaenys's death and as Lannister also partly responsible for keeping Sansa the little bird caged.  Would have to review the context of both.  Since Illyrio is speaking of Dany and we know his plans for Aegon it could just be symbolic emphasis that he plans to swallow her up.

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26 minutes ago, Lady Barbrey said:

Are we allowed to link to Reddit on here?  If you're interested, I'll look for that thread again and link you to it.

As far as I know, there's no problem. Please do it.

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1 hour ago, Ckram said:

As far as I know, there's no problem. Please do it.

Here you go, Ckram and @Lollygag  It's newer than I thought, he's making the point no one would keep greyscale hands as a keepsake as well as the other things.  I like the other lie he pointed out too, that Illyrio does travel by sea because we know he was once in Westeros.

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/7nrqsf/spoilers_published_the_lie_of_serra_is_there_a/

 

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The linked theory leads to weird places in the end, but the tidbit about it being odd to keep greyscale hands is actually pretty sound.

I usually just point out that we only have Illyrio's words that Serra is a thing - the alleged picture of hers could be Dany or any silver-golden haired Valyrian woman on the planet.

And in the end it may make much more sense that Lemore is Aegon's true mother, not this Serra woman.

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1 hour ago, Lady Barbrey said:

Here you go, Ckram and @Lollygag  It's newer than I thought, he's making the point no one would keep greyscale hands as a keepsake as well as the other things.  I like the other lie he pointed out too, that Illyrio does travel by sea because we know he was once in Westeros.

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/7nrqsf/spoilers_published_the_lie_of_serra_is_there_a/

 

 

 

Thank you! This asks who is Illyrio and I'll offer my crack pot.

 

This is all consistent with Illyrio being Gerion Lannister. The author looks for clues about Illyrio in proximity to Tyrion's time with him and we hear a good deal about Gerion near this time which is a method I very much agree with.  Gerion would know Tyrion. He’s also a liar/trickster/Lann the Clever figure. Thematically, Illyrio also attaches himself to the Lannister trait of confusing wives/whores and getting bitten for it. I think it’s also interesting that we left Tyrion with Hands of Gold are always cold but a woman’s hands are warm which is also tied to several Lannisters. It stretches to Illyrio with Serra’s soft hands which implies also warm hands. Her hands are now cold and hard.

Another reason Illyrio might have found it easy to pull the story about Serra is that Gerion himself married a whore. Below, we see that Gerion disappeared when Tyrion was eighteen. But when Tyrion was sixteen, Tywin says, “neither (of my brothers) ever wed a whore.” Tywin has three brothers, not two, which makes the use of neither incorrect - unless Tywin had cut Gerion off by this point or was on the way to doing so. I suspect that Gerion was on bad terms with Tywin, possibly on the way to exile if he didn’t fix the whore situation, and this might provide an explanation for why Gerion went to search for Brightroar and other things to be found as Tywin very much wanted a VS sword. We also have Tywin linking Gerion likely to cheese kings in Essos. At least I assume it’s Gerion as Tywin is discussing brothers and it’s Gerion who seems to have a fascination with Essos.

 

ADWD Tyrion VIII

"I know some sailors say that any man who lays eyes upon that coast is doomed." He did not believe such tales himself, no more than his uncle had. Gerion Lannister had set sail for Valyria when Tyrion was eighteen, intent on recovering the lost ancestral blade of House Lannister and any other treasures that might have survived the Doom. Tyrion had wanted desperately to go with them, but his lord father had dubbed the voyage a "fool's quest," and forbidden him to take part.

 

ADWD Tyrion III

"The fourth," said Tyrion, who had committed all sixteen of the wonders to memory as a boy. His uncle Gerion liked to set him on the table during feasts and make him recite them. I liked that well enough, didn't I? Standing there amongst the trenchers with every eye upon me, proving what a clever little imp I was. For years afterward, he had cherished a dream that one day he would travel the world and see Longstrider's wonders for himself.

Lord Tywin had put an end to that hope ten days before his dwarf son's sixteenth nameday, when Tyrion asked to tour the Nine Free Cities, as his uncles had done at that same age. "My brothers could be relied upon to bring no shame upon House Lannister," his father had replied. "Neither ever wed a whore." And when Tyrion had reminded him that in ten days he would be a man grown, free to travel where he wished, Lord Tywin had said, "No man is free. Only children and fools think elsewise. Go, by all means. Wear motley and stand upon your head to amuse the spice lords and the cheese kings. Just see that you pay your own way and put aside any thoughts of returning." At that the boy's defiance had crumbled. "If it is useful occupation you require, useful occupation you shall have," his father then said. So to mark his manhood, Tyrion was given charge of all the drains and cisterns within Casterly Rock. Perhaps he hoped I'd fall into one. But Tywin had been disappointed in that. The drains never drained half so well as when he had charge of them.

 

For this reason, I suspect that Tywin did end up exiling Gerion. This would also explain all of the discussion of Illyrio and Casterly Rock.

ADWD Tyrion II

Illyrio brushed away the objection as if it were a fly. "Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre." The cheesemonger smiled through his forked beard. "And Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home."

 

I agree with the author that there may a glamour of some sort employed as Illyrio’s gold rings (another Lannister thing) are mentioned repeatedly and he follows R’hllor. I also agree that Aegon isn’t his son as there are no Lannister symbols around him while there are loads around Illyrio. Gerion is described as being fond of children, so Illyrio's attachment to a child which isn't his also makes sense here. And there’s this.

 

ASOS Jaime V

That seemed to amuse the Lord of the Dreadfort. "My lady, has no one told you? Lannisters lie."

 

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The linked theory leads to weird places in the end, but the tidbit about it being odd to keep greyscale hands is actually pretty sound.

I usually just point out that we only have Illyrio's words that Serra is a thing - the alleged picture of hers could be Dany or any silver-golden haired Valyrian woman on the planet.

And in the end it may make much more sense that Lemore is Aegon's true mother, not this Serra woman.

All true, but it then leaves us still with the mystery of why all the lies?  

The Pentos-Myr lie is pretty pointed or why did George bother to include it.  Illyrio never travelling by sea was also an outright lie.  The greyscale hands seem suspiciously like another lie, and I'm inclined to agree with the author of the post that the girl from the Lysene pillow house sounds appropriated from the widow's tale, romance tales and cliche. Moreover, he knows Tyrion will learn Young Griff's identity eventually, so why show him a portrait of a woman with the same colouring?  That seems odd, there was no need for it. 

Ah well, just more mystery to ponder.  

 

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3 hours ago, Lollygag said:

 

 

Thank you! This asks who is Illyrio and I'll offer my crack pot.

 

This is all consistent with Illyrio being Gerion Lannister. The author looks for clues about Illyrio in proximity to Tyrion's time with him and we hear a good deal about Gerion near this time which is a method I very much agree with.  Gerion would know Tyrion. He’s also a liar/trickster/Lann the Clever figure. Thematically, Illyrio also attaches himself to the Lannister trait of confusing wives/whores and getting bitten for it. I think it’s also interesting that we left Tyrion with Hands of Gold are always cold but a woman’s hands are warm which is also tied to several Lannisters. It stretches to Illyrio with Serra’s soft hands which implies also warm hands. Her hands are now cold and hard.

Another reason Illyrio might have found it easy to pull the story about Serra is that Gerion himself married a whore. Below, we see that Gerion disappeared when Tyrion was eighteen. But when Tyrion was sixteen, Tywin says, “neither (of my brothers) ever wed a whore.” Tywin has three brothers, not two, which makes the use of neither incorrect - unless Tywin had cut Gerion off by this point or was on the way to doing so. I suspect that Gerion was on bad terms with Tywin, possibly on the way to exile if he didn’t fix the whore situation, and this might provide an explanation for why Gerion went to search for Brightroar and other things to be found as Tywin very much wanted a VS sword. We also have Tywin linking Gerion likely to cheese kings in Essos. At least I assume it’s Gerion as Tywin is discussing brothers and it’s Gerion who seems to have a fascination with Essos.

 

ADWD Tyrion VIII

"I know some sailors say that any man who lays eyes upon that coast is doomed." He did not believe such tales himself, no more than his uncle had. Gerion Lannister had set sail for Valyria when Tyrion was eighteen, intent on recovering the lost ancestral blade of House Lannister and any other treasures that might have survived the Doom. Tyrion had wanted desperately to go with them, but his lord father had dubbed the voyage a "fool's quest," and forbidden him to take part.

 

ADWD Tyrion III

"The fourth," said Tyrion, who had committed all sixteen of the wonders to memory as a boy. His uncle Gerion liked to set him on the table during feasts and make him recite them. I liked that well enough, didn't I? Standing there amongst the trenchers with every eye upon me, proving what a clever little imp I was. For years afterward, he had cherished a dream that one day he would travel the world and see Longstrider's wonders for himself.

Lord Tywin had put an end to that hope ten days before his dwarf son's sixteenth nameday, when Tyrion asked to tour the Nine Free Cities, as his uncles had done at that same age. "My brothers could be relied upon to bring no shame upon House Lannister," his father had replied. "Neither ever wed a whore." And when Tyrion had reminded him that in ten days he would be a man grown, free to travel where he wished, Lord Tywin had said, "No man is free. Only children and fools think elsewise. Go, by all means. Wear motley and stand upon your head to amuse the spice lords and the cheese kings. Just see that you pay your own way and put aside any thoughts of returning." At that the boy's defiance had crumbled. "If it is useful occupation you require, useful occupation you shall have," his father then said. So to mark his manhood, Tyrion was given charge of all the drains and cisterns within Casterly Rock. Perhaps he hoped I'd fall into one. But Tywin had been disappointed in that. The drains never drained half so well as when he had charge of them.

 

For this reason, I suspect that Tywin did end up exiling Gerion. This would also explain all of the discussion of Illyrio and Casterly Rock.

ADWD Tyrion II

Illyrio brushed away the objection as if it were a fly. "Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre." The cheesemonger smiled through his forked beard. "And Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home."

 

I agree with the author that there may a glamour of some sort employed as Illyrio’s gold rings (another Lannister thing) are mentioned repeatedly and he follows R’hllor. I also agree that Aegon isn’t his son as there are no Lannister symbols around him while there are loads around Illyrio. Gerion is described as being fond of children, so Illyrio's attachment to a child which isn't his also makes sense here. And there’s this.

 

ASOS Jaime V

That seemed to amuse the Lord of the Dreadfort. "My lady, has no one told you? Lannisters lie."

 

Well why not?  It's about time another secret Lannister showed up since we learned about the three Baratheon kids so early.  I particularly noticed the Casterly Rock bit in the conversation while rereading, in the context of what does Illyrio want?  But I'm still not sure.

There's that good suggestion he's actually dead.  The fat man among the pirates whose hands had to be cleaved off to get at his rings.  If that proves true, my question is who inherits?  Be pretty nice for your theory if he actually found Brightroar and leaves it to Tyrion!

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5 hours ago, Lady Barbrey said:

no one would keep greyscale hands as a keepsake as well as the other things

In the comment section of the reddit thread, an user shows that historical figures had deathmasks aswell as hand casts. Maybe the stone hands are not the actual grey death / greyscale hands, but a stone hand cast.

However, having the hands but not the mask, only a picture in a locket could still mean something.

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I remember reading that passage about the super fat man being rolled off the Meadowlark after his fingers had been cut off to take his rings and thinking of Illyrio. I just wasn't sure why he would want to travel incognito (or as much as his girth will allow for) when he has his own ships. But then, the Meadowlark did have Quentyn's group traveling on it under assumed identities and the ship was traveling from Lys to Volantis.

Here's something that I thought of yesterday. It was bribing the passages about one of the Triarchs in Volantis. Triarch Nyessos.

"Elephants with stripes?" Griff muttered. "What is that about? Nyessos and Malaquo? Illyrio has paid Triarch Nyessos enough to own him eight times over." (Tyrion V, ADWD 18)

And later we find out this;

"The priest is calling on the Volantenes to go to war," the Halfmaester told him, "but on the side of right, as soldiers of the Lord of Light, R'hllor who made the sun and stars and fights eternally against the darkness. Nyessos and Malaquo have turned away from the light, he said, their hearts darkened by the yellow harpies from the east. He says . . ." (Tyrion VI, ADWD 22,)

And this;

"The Yunkishmen have bought your triarchs?"
"Only Nyessos." Qavo removed the screen and studied the placement of Tyrion's army. "Malaquo may be old and toothless, but he is a tiger still, and Doniphos will not be returned as triarch. The city thirsts for war." (Tyrion VI, ADWD 22)

So one of two things. Either Nyessos took Illyrio's money and decided to double-cross him because he felt there was more money in the slave trade. Or he did not receive all of his payment or any of it if Illyrio was setting off to Volantis after he dropped Tyrion off to see to it because he never made it to Volantis after the Meadowlark was attacked. 

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14 hours ago, Lady Barbrey said:

Here you go, Ckram and @Lollygag  It's newer than I thought, he's making the point no one would keep greyscale hands as a keepsake as well as the other things.  I like the other lie he pointed out too, that Illyrio does travel by sea because we know he was once in Westeros.

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/7nrqsf/spoilers_published_the_lie_of_serra_is_there_a/

 

Interesting. One of the reasons I'm skeptical of the theory that Aegon is a Blackfyre is that it seems unlikely that a branch of the Blackfyre family that anyone cared about wound wind up with its heir as a Lysene brothel slave. Illyrio is claiming that this marriage was notorious enough to bar him from the palace of Pentos, indicating that Tyrion could easily discover whether it's a lie, but leaving Pentos makes that less likely.

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13 hours ago, Lady Barbrey said:

Well why not?  It's about time another secret Lannister showed up since we learned about the three Baratheon kids so early.  I particularly noticed the Casterly Rock bit in the conversation while rereading, in the context of what does Illyrio want?  But I'm still not sure.

There's that good suggestion he's actually dead.  The fat man among the pirates whose hands had to be cleaved off to get at his rings.  If that proves true, my question is who inherits?  Be pretty nice for your theory if he actually found Brightroar and leaves it to Tyrion!

Right now, I'm entertaining the possibility that Gerion - already acquainted with unspecified cheese kings via Tywin's statement - may have played a part in the real Illyrio's death. The door is open to him using a glamour (ruby ring, R'hllor following) to take the real Illyrio's place. Suspect Varys' involvement as we know the Varys/Illyrio backstory is fake to some degree and it's more believable that Varys and Gerion just met in KL and Varys recruited Gerion after Gerion's falling out just like he recruited Tyrion.

That Illyrio looks just like Tytos (tall, very fat, blonde, laughs a lot like Tytos the Laughing Lion, takes to whores, lots of gold/CR references) might just serve as a clue to readers, or not. Gerion was also called the Laughing Lion.

 

Adding:

There’s also this from Tyrion just before he’s freed by Jaime. At the time Tyrion says this, Kevan is the last of Tyrion’s blood uncles as Tygett, and Stafford are dead and Gerion believed to be so, thus this statement from Tyrion doesn't quite make sense from the reader's perspective. He has Emmon Frey as an uncle by marriage, but the Westerosi don’t seem to consistently refer to aunts/uncles by marriage by that title and it doesn't really work that Tyrion would be considering Emmon Frey here. The Lannisters have two other unspecified uncles as Stafford’s and Joanna’s brothers as per TWOIAF, but they’re unnamed and it doesn’t say that whether they’re alive or dead, or even that they lived into adulthood.

So without digging too deeply, this points to Gerion and it’s Illyrio that Tyrion meets right after this. I think this a bit of slight of hand by GRRM.

ASOS Tyrion X

Ser Kevan did not visit him that night. He was probably with Lord Tywin, trying to placate the Tyrells. I have seen the last of that uncle, I fear.

 

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