The Illyrio/Aegon thing

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

I don't understand why Aegon is suddenly expected to be a descendant of Bittersteel, when Blackfyre pretenders are specifically descendants of Daemon Blackfyre? Bittersteel was simply a close ally and supporter of his and the purpose of the GC is to put a Blackfyre on the throne, not a descendant of Bittersteel.  Illyrio said that the male line of House Blackfyre is extinct, meaning that it could live on through the female line. So, Serra being a female descendant of Daemon is very much possible, and I don't know how Bittersteel being childless changes anything. I never even considered him part of the equation.

[bent branch]

3 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I don't understand why Aegon is suddenly expected to be a descendant of Bittersteel, when Blackfyre pretenders are specifically descendants of Daemon Blackfyre? Bittersteel was simply a close ally and supporter of his and the purpose of the GC is to put a Blackfyre on the throne, not a descendant of Bittersteel.  Illyrio said that the male line of House Blackfyre is extinct, meaning that it could live on through the female line. So, Serra being a female descendant of Daemon is very much possible, and I don't know how Bittersteel being childless changes anything. I never even considered him part of the equation.

Because Bittersteel was married to Calla Blackfyre, one of Daemon Blackfyre's daughters. 

[Lord Varys]

28 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Because Bittersteel was married to Calla Blackfyre, one of Daemon Blackfyre's daughters. 

Betrothed. If it is indeed true that Bittersteel had no children, then it might turn out that he never married Calla in the first place. She was promised to him by Daemon while she was still a child, but Daemon died, and there may have been no such marriage in exile.

Then Calla may have married Haegon or somebody else entirely.

[bent branch]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Betrothed. If it is indeed true that Bittersteel had no children, then it might turn out that he never married Calla in the first place. She was promised to him by Daemon while she was still a child, but Daemon died, and there may have been no such marriage in exile.

Then Calla may have married Haegon or somebody else entirely.

Okay. Although people still seem to be big on the Aegon as Blackfyre thing, I think this information shakes the theory at it's very core. It is clear that GRRM hasn't given this issue nearly the amount of thought as the fandom. There will be Blackfyre descendents through the female line (Illyrio and, probably, Daario), but these have been to give some color and depth to the story and not to form the basis of a conspiracy to put a Blackfyre on the throne. The Bittersteel/Calla marriage was literally the best possible Blackfyre tie for Aegon. With that gone there is really nothing left. Everything else depends on first assuming Aegon is fake and then reading the "evidence" to confirm that preconceived notion. 

I still leave open the possibility that Aegon is fake because there are two passages that make me wonder. They are never cited in the debate about Aegon because they have nothing to do with Blackfyres.

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, bent branch said:

The Bittersteel/Calla marriage was literally the best possible Blackfyre tie for Aegon. With that gone there is really nothing left. Everything else depends on first assuming Aegon is fake and then reading the "evidence" to confirm that preconceived notion.

It was a very fine idea, considering that I came up with that one myself. It would have united those two bastard branches and would have allowed any male child from that lineage - be he Illyrio, Aegon, or anyone - to be descended not just through multiple daughters. Bittersteel could have just had daughters, one of which could have had another daughter whose daughter then was the mother Illyrio. That way things could really be very obscure.

But there are still plenty of Blackfyres left. Aegon, Aemon, and Daemon II most likely had no issue. Haegon had at least two sons, possibly more, and then there is Aenys (who lived long enough to have children of his own) and the two unnamed Blackfyre sons, #6 and #7. Not to mention Calla and at least one other Blackfyre daughter (Daemon had daughters).

From the third generation we know Haegon's son Daemon III and the fact that the man had at least one brother, their cousin Daemon (IV) who couldn't have been another son of Haegon's (unless we assume the man had two sons named Daemon) and their cousin Maelys (who was likely not a younger brother of Daemon III since he could have then claimed the Golden Company and the title 'king' immediately after Daemon III's death.

But Daemon I had so many children that could have easily enough had a dozen or more grandchildren. And if there were multiple female branches because there were many granddaughters then there could actually be multiple female branches of House Blackfyre be still around.

We don't know.

Even without the Bittersteel idea, Illyrio could still be a descendant of a daughter of Daemon Blackfyre - or a granddaughter.

[AlaskanSandman]

On 8/15/2018 at 12:35 PM, Lord Varys said:

If we take George's words on Bittersteel's children as confirmation that he definitely had none - which seems not unlikely at this point - then how do we spin the whole Illyrio/Aegon thing?

Are the chances better now that Aegon is actually Rhaegar's son?

Is Aegon just Illyrio's son with a whore with no special blood of note whatsoever?

Does it make more sense now to go with the idea that Prince Maegor Targaryen might figure in this equation somehow?

Or do we go we just go with Varys/Illyrio/Serra/whoever being fruits from different branches of the pretty big Blackfyre family tree, with no descendants of Bittersteel or Aerion Targaryen figuring into that all that much?

My whole problem with this has always been that Varys came to Westeros before Aegon or Faegon was born. So unless their plans for Faegon went to before he was even conceived, there seems to be a serious kink in a Faegon plan. 

Seems more logical to me that Varys came to Westeros for another purpose, and that Aegon just happened to happen and indeed get saved by Varys. Who clearly says he's real to a dying man. 

Mayhaps, Illyrio and his Wife couldn't have kids, so Aegon was the closest they would ever come to having a kid? 

Varys has been shaving his head and looking like Egg since before Aegon was born, and came to Westeros before Aegon was born. 

I would venture that Varys is a secret Targaryen and thats why he hides his appearance, and why his tid bits were burned in the flames. Kings Blood.

[AlaskanSandman]

Im still speculating on a displaced Targaryen at Summerhal. 

Duncan and Jenny of Old Stone are still my bet. Married for a longgg time before they died.

[bent branch]

37 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It was a very fine idea, considering that I came up with that one myself. It would have united those two bastard branches and would have allowed any male child from that lineage - be he Illyrio, Aegon, or anyone - to be descended not just through multiple daughters. Bittersteel could have just had daughters, one of which could have had another daughter whose daughter then was the mother Illyrio. That way things could really be very obscure.

But there are still plenty of Blackfyres left. Aegon, Aemon, and Daemon II most likely had no issue. Haegon had at least two sons, possibly more, and then there is Aenys (who lived long enough to have children of his own) and the two unnamed Blackfyre sons, #6 and #7. Not to mention Calla and at least one other Blackfyre daughter (Daemon had daughters).

From the third generation we know Haegon's son Daemon III and the fact that the man had at least one brother, their cousin Daemon (IV) who couldn't have been another son of Haegon's (unless we assume the man had two sons named Daemon) and their cousin Maelys (who was likely not a younger brother of Daemon III since he could have then claimed the Golden Company and the title 'king' immediately after Daemon III's death.

But Daemon I had so many children that could have easily enough had a dozen or more grandchildren. And if there were multiple female branches because there were many granddaughters then there could actually be multiple female branches of House Blackfyre be still around.

We don't know.

Even without the Bittersteel idea, Illyrio could still be a descendant of a daughter of Daemon Blackfyre - or a granddaughter.

Just because there is lots of opportunity does not mean that there is where GRRM is going. If the Blackfyres followed Targaryen marriage practices, then Daemon's daughters where probably married to his sons. If this is the case, then there would be fewer of them than you are imagining, since dying out in the male line would be the same as dying out in the female line. That is why the Bittersteel/Calla thing was so promising. There should also be more evidence of this conspiracy if this is where GRRM is going. I have been told I have a closed mind on this issue because I won't first imagine it is true and then interpret the "evidence" with that belief in mind. What is being described is called confirmation bias. 

[bent branch]

18 minutes ago, AlaskanSandman said:

My whole problem with this has always been that Varys came to Westeros before Aegon or Faegon was born. So unless their plans for Faegon went to before he was even conceived, there seems to be a serious kink in a Faegon plan. 

This is indeed one of the greatest weaknesses in the Aegon as Blackfyre theory.

[AlaskanSandman]

8 minutes ago, bent branch said:

This is indeed one of the greatest weaknesses in the Aegon as Blackfyre theory.

Varys is like Aegon V also in that he has a bald head like him ( The pic of young Varys and Illyrio reminds me of Dunk and Egg even) Why such comparisons?  Aegon V did it to hide that he was a Targaryen. 

As mentioned above, Aegon V is responsible for Summerhal, tying to hatch dragons. And alot of Targaryens died, (Or went missing), and Rhaegar was born at Summerhal (Even part of the plan as Aegon V knew he was soon to be born).

Varys helps Rhaegar's son, as Varys claims him self. 

Varys even leaves out mention of Aegon ever dying when recounting Rhaeny's death. And seems legitimately pained by it as Eddard notes.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

It was a very fine idea, considering that I came up with that one myself. It would have united those two bastard branches and would have allowed any male child from that lineage - be he Illyrio, Aegon, or anyone - to be descended not just through multiple daughters. Bittersteel could have just had daughters, one of which could have had another daughter whose daughter then was the mother Illyrio. That way things could really be very obscure.

But there are still plenty of Blackfyres left. Aegon, Aemon, and Daemon II most likely had no issue. Haegon had at least two sons, possibly more, and then there is Aenys (who lived long enough to have children of his own) and the two unnamed Blackfyre sons, #6 and #7. Not to mention Calla and at least one other Blackfyre daughter (Daemon had daughters).

From the third generation we know Haegon's son Daemon III and the fact that the man had at least one brother, their cousin Daemon (IV) who couldn't have been another son of Haegon's (unless we assume the man had two sons named Daemon) and their cousin Maelys (who was likely not a younger brother of Daemon III since he could have then claimed the Golden Company and the title 'king' immediately after Daemon III's death.

But Daemon I had so many children that could have easily enough had a dozen or more grandchildren. And if there were multiple female branches because there were many granddaughters then there could actually be multiple female branches of House Blackfyre be still around.

We don't know.

Even without the Bittersteel idea, Illyrio could still be a descendant of a daughter of Daemon Blackfyre - or a granddaughter.

Who knows? The George might still get there. It took him a while to figure out that Aegon was a Blackfyre.

[The Sleeper]

4 hours ago, bent branch said:

This is indeed one of the greatest weaknesses in the Aegon as Blackfyre theory.

Not really. Assuming that Varys and Illyrio are connected to the Blackfyres, Varys could have gone as an infiltrator to undermine the regime from within. They could have conceived the plan about Aegon after the rebellion, realising that they would have an easier time of it if they presented him as a son of Rhaegar. 

Ultimately, his descent does not matter in plot terms as his origin story is shady and I can't imagine any kind of conclusive proof that could be universally presented and accepted. It will come down to how well they sell their story and the disposition and biases of those they sell it to. 

I am on board with the Blackfyres theory because of the Golden Company's involvement and the whole scheme is not something a pair of gangsters would come up with and devote in Varys case a good portion of their life to, unless there was a personal stake in it. Or unless it was inspired by "Great Expectations". I hope not. 

[AlaskanSandman]

7 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

Not really. Assuming that Varys and Illyrio are connected to the Blackfyres, Varys could have gone as an infiltrator to undermine the regime from within. They could have conceived the plan about Aegon after the rebellion, realising that they would have an easier time of it if they presented him as a son of Rhaegar. 

Ultimately, his descent does not matter in plot terms as his origin story is shady and I can't imagine any kind of conclusive proof that could be universally presented and accepted. It will come down to how well they sell their story and the disposition and biases of those they sell it to. 

I am on board with the Blackfyres theory because of the Golden Company's involvement and the whole scheme is not something a pair of gangsters would come up with and devote in Varys case a good portion of their life to, unless there was a personal stake in it. Or unless it was inspired by "Great Expectations". I hope not. 

So Varys and Illyrio made a plan to go to Westeros and undermine the regime from with in? Then got lucky in that Rhaegar and Elia, who no one could have predicted Rhaegar marrying, have a kid. Who just happens to be of an age with a kid Illyrio just happened to have at the same time. Then just decided to go that route instead? That is some extreme luck and coincidence. And a weak plan A. Their plan B sounds really flimsy too. As it involves Varys starting a rebellion he actually tried to avoid. Then some how plan on the Mountain murdering both kids. So you can make a supposed surprise, Aegon is still alive reveal 15 years later with your secret Blackfyre.

That is quite the reach of circumstances but i guess it could happen. If the Golden Company wanna go home, and all Blackfyres are dead. Following a Targaryen seems like the only thing to do imo. 
 

Though it does make me wonder about Roberts Rebellion and why the Golden Company stayed out of it. Why not message Robert and mention that you got some Blackfyre lying around? Lets marry up and rock Westeros. House Baratheon and House Blackfyre uniting for the throne. Sounds legit. Both are bastard branches. Would Robert have considered a Blackfyre bride?

[The Sleeper]

8 minutes ago, AlaskanSandman said:

So Varys and Illyrio made a plan to go to Westeros and undermine the regime from with in? Then got lucky in that Rhaegar and Elia, who no one could have predicted Rhaegar marrying, have a kid. Who just happens to be of an age with a kid Illyrio just happened to have at the same time. Then just decided to go that route instead? That is some extreme luck and coincidence. And a weak plan A. Their plan B sounds really flimsy too. As it involves Varys starting a rebellion he actually tried to avoid. Then some how plan on the Mountain murdering both kids. So you can make a supposed surprise, Aegon is still alive reveal 15 years later with your secret Blackfyre.

That is quite the reach of circumstances but i guess it could happen. If the Golden Company wanna go home, and all Blackfyres are dead. Following a Targaryen seems like the only thing to do imo. 
 

Though it does make me wonder about Roberts Rebellion and why the Golden Company stayed out of it. Why not message Robert and mention that you got some Blackfyre lying around? Lets marry up and rock Westeros. House Baratheon and House Blackfyre uniting for the throne. Sounds legit. Both are bastard branches. Would Robert have considered a Blackfyre bride?

Errm no. Assuming that Varys and Illyrio are connected with the Blackfyres, they could have just begun laying the groundwork for a more run of the mill rebellion like the five that preceded it. Robert's rebellion happened first and the mutilation of baby Aegon's head gave them the idea of passing off Illurio's son as Rhaegar's who was more or less the right age. People have children, it is not that much of coincidence. I'm going of the assumption that Illyrio's wife Serra is of Blackfyre descent. If you think about it the Valyrian features were not an absolute requirement as Aegon died as an infant and his mother was Dornish. They could have claimed that he changed as he grew older. 

The rest is a matter of waiting for and creating the right circumstance. 

Why the fuck would Robert consider a Blackfyre bride? That is random. 

[AlaskanSandman]

1 minute ago, The Sleeper said:

Why the fuck would Robert consider a Blackfyre bride? That is random.

Wow, some one needs to chill out lmao never mind, that says alot. 

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, bent branch said:

Just because there is lots of opportunity does not mean that there is where GRRM is going. If the Blackfyres followed Targaryen marriage practices, then Daemon's daughters where probably married to his sons. If this is the case, then there would be fewer of them than you are imagining, since dying out in the male line would be the same as dying out in the female line.

I expect there to have been some incestuous marriages among the Blackfyres, but at this point we don't know. And we have no reason to believe Daemon had as many daughters as he had surviving sons (which would mean four daughters for Haegon, Aenys, #6, and #7.

And the more important thing is that there is a chance that Aenys or #6 or #7 had more daughters than sons, meaning that some 'spare daughters' could not be married to their brothers, even if they continued to go along with the incest policy.

9 hours ago, bent branch said:

That is why the Bittersteel/Calla thing was so promising. There should also be more evidence of this conspiracy if this is where GRRM is going. I have been told I have a closed mind on this issue because I won't first imagine it is true and then interpret the "evidence" with that belief in mind. What is being described is called confirmation bias. 

Well, one discuss the Blackfyre line without speculating whether Aegon is descended from them or not. And we do know that according to Illyrio and Yandel there are still Blackfyres around through the female line.

If they are *important people* and nobody knows about their ancestry then a better way would indeed be if they had had Blackfyre grandmothers (or even great-grandmothers) than mothers. Because it is rather easy to find out who somebody's mother was.

[Crona]

4 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Errm no. Assuming that Varys and Illyrio are connected with the Blackfyres, they could have just begun laying the groundwork for a more run of the mill rebellion like the five that preceded it. 

Didn’t previous rebellions already have an heir before the rebellion started?

[The Sleeper]

1 minute ago, Crona said:

Didn’t previous rebellions already have an heir before the rebellion started?

Why not Serra or Illyrio himself, or who ever of the lot is associated with the Blackfyre? They could also be planning ahead for the child they hoped to have. 

[Crona]

10 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

Why not Serra or Illyrio himself, or who ever of the lot is associated with the Blackfyre? They could also be planning ahead for the child they hoped to have. 

Well if Serra looked fully valyrian then maybe, but I highly doubt Westeros would accept Illyrio as their king. 

It makes more sense for their child though. However, I find it hard to believe that Varys would go to Westeros to start a rebellion for a child that wasn’t born yet.

[The Sleeper]

23 minutes ago, Crona said:

Well if Serra looked fully valyrian then maybe, but I highly doubt Westeros would accept Illyrio as their king. 

It makes more sense for their child though. However, I find it hard to believe that Varys would go to Westeros to start a rebellion for a child that wasn’t born yet.

The whole idea of these two individuals setting up a twenty year long plan to install a king in a another continent is hard to believe to begin with. And yet they have.

That is why I am assuming personal motivation.