Hugorfonics Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 How much was the result of the Pink Letter? How premeditated was the assassination? Was Wun Wun and Ser Patrek part of Bowens scheme? How many knives in the dark did Melisandre see? Wheres Ghost? Wheres Alliser? Cersei schemed with Kettleblack to murder Jon. Cersei and Kettleblack got distracted, did their lackeys ever make it to the Wall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morte Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 As for Alliser: The ranging parties have already left, so Alliser is beyond the wall with Dywen. They are not - yet - all dead, or at least we don't know if they are, as Mel is not able to see if and what happened to them. The brothers send north have nothing to do with the mutiny, most likely don't even know one was in planing. Personally I don't think we have seen the last of Ser Alliser Thorne, I'm quite positive we will see him again, and alive. Cersei: Good question! We don't know that either, not even if she had indeed send someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Sidious Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 3 hours ago, Hugorfonics said: How much was the result of the Pink Letter? How premeditated was the assassination? Was Wun Wun and Ser Patrek part of Bowens scheme? How many knives in the dark did Melisandre see? Wheres Ghost? Wheres Alliser? Cersei schemed with Kettleblack to murder Jon. Cersei and Kettleblack got distracted, did their lackeys ever make it to the Wall? Hah. Let's get started. The Pink Letter forced the perpetrator, Jon Snow, to make public his illegal activities. The arrival of the letter and Ramsay's requests forced Jon's hands to reveal what he had been up to, take his sister away from her husband and hide her across the sea. Jon had to admit his guilt. The assassination was not premeditated. It was a desperate act to stop a rogue NW lord commander from committing an atrocity. Jon was about to lead the Wildlings to attack the Warden of the North. This would have been an act worse than those of the Nk's in Old Nan's story. WW and Ser Patrek got caught up in the turmoil that took place after Jon announced his intent to lead a Wildling raid against House Bolton. I do not believe they were part of any plot because there was no plot from the honest brothers of the NW. Cersei's scheme never came into fruition. It is doubtful it ever got off the ground. Cersei had troubles of her own. Ghost is locked in the cabin. Ser Alliser is away, where Jon sent him off. Any good, honest brother of the NW would have done what Bowen Marsh and the other men did. Jon's raid against the Boltons needed to be prevented. What happened at the Wall is all the fault of Jon. He tried to interfered with the politics of the north, tried to sneak his sister from her husband, gave Mance Rayder a pass for his terrible crimes against the NW, and killed a fellow sworn brother for being the old enemy of his dead father. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FictionIsntReal Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 On 8/18/2018 at 11:19 AM, Buell Rider said: What happened at the Wall is all the fault of Jon. He tried to interfered with the politics of the north, tried to sneak his sister from her husband, gave Mance Rayder a pass for his terrible crimes against the NW, and killed a fellow sworn brother for being the old enemy of his dead father. Slynt was executed for repeatedly defying his orders from the new Lord Commander. Jon retained the loyalty of the Watch after that execution. The problems came later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giant Ice Spider Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 I think there was already a plot, but Marsh & Co. had to hasten their plans when Jon announced he was marching south. It makes sense Marsh would want to get rid of Snow before could 'do any more damage', as Marsh & Co. perceived it. Wun Wun & Ser Patrek had no part in it. That was only coincidental, and will probably provide the opportunity Marsh & Co. need to disappear before they're caught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shouldve Taken The Black Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 On 8/18/2018 at 5:19 PM, Buell Rider said: The Pink Letter forced the perpetrator, Jon Snow, to make public his illegal activities. The arrival of the letter and Ramsay's requests forced Jon's hands to reveal what he had been up to, take his sister away from her husband and hide her across the sea. Jon had to admit his guilt. That's not what happened though. Jon was motivated by his fear for Arya. You can disagree with him doing that, but there is nothing in the books to suggest that Jon was motivated by fear of being caught out. On 8/18/2018 at 5:19 PM, Buell Rider said: The assassination was not premeditated. It was a desperate act to stop a rogue NW lord commander from committing an atrocity. Jon was about to lead the Wildlings to attack the Warden of the North. This would have been an act worse than those of the Nk's in Old Nan's story. A little hyperbolic here. Sure, Bowen and co were driven by a desire to save the NW from the consequences of Jon's actions, but those actions were hardly in line with necromancy and consorting with the Others! On 8/18/2018 at 5:19 PM, Buell Rider said: and killed a fellow sworn brother for being the old enemy of his dead father. 9 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said: Slynt was executed for repeatedly defying his orders from the new Lord Commander. Jon retained the loyalty of the Watch after that execution. The problems came later. I believe there's an on-going thread on this issue that has reached its third incarnation. Doubt we need to turn this thread into another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shouldve Taken The Black Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 On 8/18/2018 at 1:45 PM, Hugorfonics said: Cersei schemed with Kettleblack to murder Jon. Cersei and Kettleblack got distracted, did their lackeys ever make it to the Wall? Cersei’s plan rested on Kettleblack being convicted of sleeping with Margaery, so Cersei could then send him to the Wall with some men to kill Jon. That all went disastrously wrong for her, and never got off the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugorfonics Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: I believe there's an on-going thread on this issue that has reached its third incarnation. Doubt we need to turn this thread into another one. It cant hurt, most of Castle Black (probably) voted for Janos. Janos says he had alot of friends. The man had 24 hours to plot before Jon killed him. I cant see Jons killing not being premeditated. Whats Bowen going to do? Hes no fighter, surrounded by Queen's Men, Wildlings and his brothers hes already dead unless he has real muscle with him. 2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: Cersei’s plan rested on Kettleblack being convicted of sleeping with Margaery, so Cersei could then send him to the Wall with some men to kill Jon. That all went disastrously wrong for her, and never got off the ground. Kettleblack was going to lead the crew, that doesn't mean that Qyburn or the small council never sent out the remainders, but your probably right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shouldve Taken The Black Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Hugorfonics said: It cant hurt, most of Castle Black (probably) voted for Janos. I don't know about that. The impression we get is Jon won by utter landslide. It may be that many in Castle Black voted for Janos still, but there's no indication of it. 6 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said: Janos says he had alot of friends. I think he was referring to his "friends" at court. He was wrong. The man was all bluster. 7 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said: I cant see Jons killing not being premeditated. Whats Bowen going to do? Hes no fighter, surrounded by Queen's Men, Wildlings and his brothers hes already dead unless he has real muscle with him. I could see him and others muttering to each other for some time, discussing what to do about Jon and the direction he's taking the Watch, it may be the murder was planned in advance, or that they finally settled on it after Jon's speech. I think the latter, but I'm not 100% on it. 8 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said: that doesn't mean that Qyburn or the small council never sent out the remainders True, but yeah, it's unlikely. I think once Cersei was captured all plots were shelved while they tried to sort out the chaos. Swift and Pycelle would probably have been solely focussed on removing Cersei's supporters and making contact with Kevan. Qyburn wouldn't have had the authority on his own to assemble a hit squad and send it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugorfonics Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: I don't know about that. The impression we get is Jon won by utter landslide. It may be that many in Castle Black voted for Janos still, but there's no indication of it. Jon won in a landslide. Mallister and Pyke brought their own voters with them when they came to CB so the 2/3 of the needed vote was guaranteed with Shadow and Eastwatch. So the last vote, preJon went like "Two hundred and three for Ser Denys Mallister," he said. "One hundred and sixty-nine for Cotter Pyke. One hundred and thirty-seven for Lord Janos Slynt, seventy-two for Othell Yarwyck, five for Three-Finger Hobb, and two for Dolorous Edd." So we can assume that CB had around 220 voters, with Othell endorsing Jon that'd still put most of CB in Slynt territory. 2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: I think he was referring to his "friends" at court. He was wrong. The man was all bluster. Maybe. At the very least he had Alliser and and the 5 men who accompanied him on Tyrions orders. Jon gave Janos a day to pack for Greyguard, in this time he could (should) have started plotting. Janos killed the witnesses in KL before they testified to Robert, Janos survived and thrived at court, he can play the game. 2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: I could see him and others muttering to each other for some time, discussing what to do about Jon and the direction he's taking the Watch, it may be the murder was planned in advance, or that they finally settled on it after Jon's speech. I think the latter, but I'm not 100% on it. It happens very fast. He leaves the wildlings hears a cry confronts Wun yells at Wick, and thats all she wrote. If they planned it right there then they talk very fast and got lucky with a Giant distraction. Its a shame we dont know Wick, but we know Bowen. It seems out of character for him to be so abrasive, I think someones pulling the strings. That person can only by Alliser, who should be back by now, but should also not trust Jon and be his sworn enemy because Jons a traitorous bastard, yada yada yada 2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: True, but yeah, it's unlikely. I think once Cersei was captured all plots were shelved while they tried to sort out the chaos. Swift and Pycelle would probably have been solely focussed on removing Cersei's supporters and making contact with Kevan. Qyburn wouldn't have had the authority on his own to assemble a hit squad and send it north. Sure he can, hes a lord and the master of whisperers. And its not a bad idea, Robbs brother writes a letter saying hes supporting Stannis; The man was asking for a hit squad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Ravens Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 On 8/18/2018 at 5:45 AM, Hugorfonics said: How much was the result of the Pink Letter? How premeditated was the assassination? Was Wun Wun and Ser Patrek part of Bowens scheme? How many knives in the dark did Melisandre see? Wheres Ghost? Wheres Alliser? Cersei schemed with Kettleblack to murder Jon. Cersei and Kettleblack got distracted, did their lackeys ever make it to the Wall? Everything happened so fast once Jon received the letter. Here it is, supposedly penned by Ramsay Bolton... Quote Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore. Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me. I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell. I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want this wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it. Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn Lord of Winterfell. Could it be that the pink letter was written by someone at the Wall? That the letter was written as part of a conspiracy to provoke an extreme response from Jon that would justify the mutiny performed by Bowen Marsh, Wick Wittlestick and friends. Perhaps Wick's blade was poisoned. Jon twisted from Wick's slash at his throat so it barely grazed his skin and yet Jon's fingers grew stiff and clumsy, preventing him from drawing Longclaw from it's scabbard. And there is plenty to cause the reader to question whether the pink letter was even sent by Ramsay. Other letters he sent included a piece of skin with the scroll and were written in blood. This letter has no skin sample, is written in ink and is merely sealed with pink wax, rather than impressed with the official seal of house Bolton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugorfonics Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 30 minutes ago, White Ravens said: Everything happened so fast once Jon received the letter. Here it is, supposedly penned by Ramsay Bolton... Could it be that the pink letter was written by someone at the Wall? That the letter was written as part of a conspiracy to provoke an extreme response from Jon that would justify the mutiny performed by Bowen Marsh, Wick Wittlestick and friends. Perhaps Wick's blade was poisoned. Jon twisted from Wick's slash at his throat so it barely grazed his skin and yet Jon's fingers grew stiff and clumsy, preventing him from drawing Longclaw from it's scabbard. And there is plenty to cause the reader to question whether the pink letter was even sent by Ramsay. Other letters he sent included a piece of skin with the scroll and were written in blood. This letter has no skin sample, is written in ink and is merely sealed with pink wax, rather than impressed with the official seal of house Bolton. Thats a cool theory to get behind but how would Bowen know about Reek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Ravens Posted August 21, 2018 Share Posted August 21, 2018 33 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said: Thats a cool theory to get behind but how would Bowen know about Reek? Not so much a theory as me just thinking (or typing) out loud. I don't know who would have sent the letter other than Ramsay, but it is suggested that it might not have been him who wrote it because he didn't write the letter in blood like he did with other letters, he didn't include a sample of someone's skin and he didn't stamp the pink wax with the Bolton family seal. Bowen and friends were organized enough to rally quickly after Jon read the letter in the shield hall so that suggest that the stabbing was premeditated to take advantage of the chaos. Also the possibility that Wik's blade was poisoned points to a conspiracy. Perhaps the conspirators also had a hand in getting Wun Wun worked up into a rage by Ser Patrick of King's Mountain. There could be two separate things going on here: Someone other than Ramsay fabricated the letter. The conspirators were organized and waiting for a distraction that would allow them to stab Jon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bowen 747 Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 The assassination was clumsy because it was a sudden decision. There was no conspiracy against Jon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugorfonics Posted August 22, 2018 Author Share Posted August 22, 2018 5 hours ago, White Ravens said: Not so much a theory as me just thinking (or typing) out loud. I don't know who would have sent the letter other than Ramsay, but it is suggested that it might not have been him who wrote it because he didn't write the letter in blood like he did with other letters, he didn't include a sample of someone's skin and he didn't stamp the pink wax with the Bolton family seal. Bowen and friends were organized enough to rally quickly after Jon read the letter in the shield hall so that suggest that the stabbing was premeditated to take advantage of the chaos. Also the possibility that Wik's blade was poisoned points to a conspiracy. Perhaps the conspirators also had a hand in getting Wun Wun worked up into a rage by Ser Patrick of King's Mountain. There could be two separate things going on here: Someone other than Ramsay fabricated the letter. The conspirators were organized and waiting for a distraction that would allow them to stab Jon. Melisandre could have written the letter, she knows stuff It does seem like Wicks blade was poisoned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shouldve Taken The Black Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 14 hours ago, Hugorfonics said: Jon won in a landslide. Mallister and Pyke brought their own voters with them when they came to CB so the 2/3 of the needed vote was guaranteed with Shadow and Eastwatch. So the last vote, preJon went like "Two hundred and three for Ser Denys Mallister," he said. "One hundred and sixty-nine for Cotter Pyke. One hundred and thirty-seven for Lord Janos Slynt, seventy-two for Othell Yarwyck, five for Three-Finger Hobb, and two for Dolorous Edd." So we can assume that CB had around 220 voters, with Othell endorsing Jon that'd still put most of CB in Slynt territory. But we don't know how much Jon won by, so this is all speculation. 14 hours ago, Hugorfonics said: Sure he can, hes a lord and the master of whisperers. I would imagine that as soon as she got arrested the agenda was pretty much cleared and everyone was concentrating on the fall out. Also, who would agree to travel up North on a hit mission on the orders of Qyburn. If I'm a Lannister soldier I respond to him with a surly "get fucked". 14 hours ago, Hugorfonics said: Robbs brother writes a letter saying hes supporting Stannis He did no such thing. He declared that the NW remained neutral. He wasn't believed of course, but that's not the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugorfonics Posted August 22, 2018 Author Share Posted August 22, 2018 4 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: But we don't know how much Jon won by, so this is all speculation. Its not that much speculation. Slynt is very anti Snow, he even relives him of duty after the battle. Anyone voting for Slynt knows that things will end up poorly for Jon, so I dont see them switching sides because the raven says kettle 4 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: I would imagine that as soon as she got arrested the agenda was pretty much cleared and everyone was concentrating on the fall out. Also, who would agree to travel up North on a hit mission on the orders of Qyburn. If I'm a Lannister soldier I respond to him with a surly "get fucked". "For years now, the Night's Watch has begged for men. Lord Stannis has answered their plea. Can King Tommen do less? His Grace should send the Wall a hundred men. To take the black, ostensibly, but in truth . . ." ". . . to remove Jon Snow from the command," Cersei finished, delighted. It seems like Kettleblack and Cersei arent needed for the scheme to unfold. 4 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: He did no such thing. He declared that the NW remained neutral. He wasn't believed of course, but that's not the same thing. He writes saying he gave Stannis food and shelter. Jon knew it was a bad idea but he listened to Aemon and Sam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shouldve Taken The Black Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 17 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said: Slynt is very anti Snow, he even relives him of duty after the battle. Anyone voting for Slynt knows that things will end up poorly for Jon, so I dont see them switching sides because the raven says kettle I doubt their major concern is Jon's fate when voting, even if they knew that the outcome for him would be bad. 17 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said: It seems like Kettleblack and Cersei arent needed for the scheme to unfold. Kettleblack certainly isn't needed. Cersei's authority certainly is. I doubt there's much point in debating this though, as I don't think either of us think that Qyburn actually did despatch the assassins. 19 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said: He writes saying he gave Stannis food and shelter. Along with an explicit statement that he wasn't taking sides, and actually asked for aid (which is a boss move by Jon btw). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugorfonics Posted August 22, 2018 Author Share Posted August 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: I doubt their major concern is Jon's fate when voting, even if they knew that the outcome for him would be bad. Its probably not mainly Jons fate, they care about the Tywin vs Stannis situation. Jons clearly on the anti Tywin side, mixed with a little bit of "turncloak wildling"; the people knew what they were voting for. The people are roughly 50% of CB, ones to get angry and start plotting after Edd fetched the block 9 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: Kettleblack certainly isn't needed. Cersei's authority certainly is. I doubt there's much point in debating this though, as I don't think either of us think that Qyburn actually did despatch the assassins. Lmao, true. I still think the SC was in support of it, Cersei or no 11 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: Along with an explicit statement that he wasn't taking sides, and actually asked for aid (which is a boss move by Jon btw). Thats not how Cersei read it "The bastard boy has written us to avow that the Night's Watch takes no side, but his actions give the lie to his words. He has given Stannis food and shelter, yet has the insolence to plead with us for arms and men." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shouldve Taken The Black Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 29 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said: I still think the SC was in support of it, Cersei or no The whole point of that Small Council was that they would agree with everything Cersei said though. 30 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said: The bastard boy has written us to avow that the Night's Watch takes no side Sorry, what am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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