Aftermath of Daenerys Campaign

[867-5309]

5 hours ago, Ylath's Snout said:

One problem with Slaver's Bay is that Dany shut down the main local industry and hasn't managed to replace it with anything else. Horrible as it might be everyone's livelihood in Slaver's Bay is tied to the "production" and sale of slaves, including the slaves. Las Vegas would turn into a shit show if you outlawed gambling overnight with the backing of dragonfire.

Then there real life. Just look at Iraq and Afghanistan. Foreign invaders could take out the local powers easy but rebuilding something that can sustain itself without massive foreign armies is hard and takes a long time. When he started ASoIaF GRRM didn't have such a clear and ongoing parallel to what Dany is doing in Slaver's Bay. If Dany just snapped her finger and solved the Meereenese Knot a lot of folks would call BS because we collectively know how fucking hard nation building is.

The only quick and believable way to extract Dany from Slaver's Bay I can see at this point is for the whole region to be destroyed, by dragonfire, the Pale Mare or something else.

You can lay the blame on the masters for burning their trees and groves.  The area has access to the oceans.  They can take up fishing.  Farming is a great option.  They will now have to pay people to perform the labor but that is actually good for the economy overall.  Not good for the former masters, but they don't deserve consideration.

Will it ever be as good for the former masters?   No, but that is not important.  Those people committed atrocities that make Ramsay Bolton, Jaime Lannister, and Theon Stark look like proper gentlemen.  The welfare of the former slaving families should never be a priority.  They just have to find another way to survive.  

There is no way to slowly phase out slavery.  That only gives the masters more time to rearm and gather strength to fight Dany's reforms.  Each day that slavery continues means the suffering, the murder, torture, and enslavement of millions of people.  This is a case where waiting for the perfect time, which will never come, is the wrong decision.  There will never be a time when you can remove something as entrenched as thousands of years of slavery and make a smooth transition.  Everything Dany did is correct.  Dany is not to blame because releasing the slaves is the right thing to do. 

[Lord Varys]

6 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Indeed, Dany will end (massive) slavery in all west Essos. Yunkai will burn, however and Meeren I think it will survive but it will be a shadow of their former past.

Oh, I don't know. It could be a powerful scene when Daenerys commands those Meereenese accompanying her west to burn their homes and houses as a sign of their commitment to her cause. Sort of like Nymeria had the Rhoynar burn their ships.

Assuming much of Meereen is still standing at that point. There are two growing dragons in the city, after all.

[SeanF]

I imagine that Dany would leave the Shavepate in charge of whatever is left.

I expect the besiegers of Meereen to be very heavily defeated.

[rotting sea cow]

3 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I don't know. It could be a powerful scene when Daenerys commands those Meereenese accompanying her west to burn their homes and houses as a sign of their commitment to her cause. Sort of like Nymeria had the Rhoynar burn their ships.

Assuming much of Meereen is still standing at that point. There are two growing dragons in the city, after all.

As @SeanF said, I believe that the Shavepate and his supporters will stay in Meeren in charge of whatever remains, they know how to manage their  affairs. The big chunk of freedmen will follow Dany west, many and more even to Westeros.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I imagine that Dany would leave the Shavepate in charge of whatever is left.

I don't think that guy is going to be interested in ruling over rabble and ruins. He has joined the dragon queen, and he'll go with her. The idea to rule and be a queen at Meereen is over, and the only way to end this whole thing is to end it once and for all. Destroy the city, kill the surviving slavers, and take those who want/did change with you.

Just now, rotting sea cow said:

As @SeanF said, I believe that the Shavepate and his supporters will stay in Meeren in charge of whatever remains, they know how to manage their  affairs. The big chunk of freedmen will follow Dany west, many and more even to Westeros.

While there was still peace of sorts this was an option. But now the guys have to not only deal with Yunkish allies and the Sons of the Harpy but also the plots and treason within Dany's own Meereenese government. And I've difficulty seeing that this is going to have a 'good outcome'. And those who chose Daenerys are likely going to want to stay with her - not just her freedmen but also her reformed Ghiscari. Especially if the city is going to be completely destroyed in the coming fights - or at least severely damaged.

[SeanF]

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think that guy is going to be interested in ruling over rabble and ruins. He has joined the dragon queen, and he'll go with her. The idea to rule and be a queen at Meereen is over, and the only way to end this whole thing is to end it once and for all. Destroy the city, kill the surviving slavers, and take those who want/did change with you.

While there was still peace of sorts this was an option. But now the guys have to not only deal with Yunkish allies and the Sons of the Harpy but also the plots and treason within Dany's own Meereenese government. And I've difficulty seeing that this is going to have a 'good outcome'. And those who chose Daenerys are likely going to want to stay with her - not just her freedmen but also her reformed Ghiscari. Especially if the city is going to be completely destroyed in the coming fights - or at least severely damaged.

Even if Meereen were destroyed, it has a big hinterland, with plenty of estates.  Land is wealth, especially if the slave trade is destroyed.

Dany won't have the resources to take hundreds of thousands of non-combatants West.

[Ylath's Snout]

7 minutes ago, 867-5309 said:

Not good for the former masters, but they don't deserve consideration.

They might not deserve consideration but anyone trying to rule Meereen as opposed to just plunder it have to take them into consideration. Unless Dany is going to permanently stay in Meereen to keep the Master out of power some sort of deal has to be made. It ain't pretty but nothing in aSoIaF is.

13 minutes ago, 867-5309 said:

They can take up fishing.  Farming is a great option.

To stay alive sure but that won't replace slaves as a trade goods. If Dany's policy ends with all the Master-families destitute then they'll have every reason to oppose her.

13 minutes ago, 867-5309 said:

There is no way to slowly phase out slavery.

Yes!

14 minutes ago, 867-5309 said:

Everything Dany did is correct.  Dany is not to blame because releasing the slaves is the right thing to do. 

Well not "everything" but putting a stop to the horror show that slavery is deffenetly one of her solid moves.

The problem is, as we saw in the South after the American civil war, that influential oppressors will claw their way back to power unless the new order gets a lot of support. They have political clout, money and violence to achieve that. Support from the federal government or Dany in this case, is crucial to stop that from happening. Dany can't leave Slaver's Bay, certainly not before the story in Westero is over, unless she is fine with it backsliding into slavery again.

One big reason for slavery ending in out would was British abolitionists and power they could project via the British navy. Dany lacks those kind of allies. 

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Even if Meereen were destroyed, it has a big hinterland, with plenty of estates.  Land is wealth, especially if the slave trade is destroyed.

But the economic basis of those estates is crippled or destroyed, no? They have olives and copper, no? And the Valyrians of old saw to it that the land is not very fertile.

Without the slave trade no ambitious/smart man is going to want to remain there. Perhaps some fools will, but Skahaz is no fool.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

But the economic basis of those estates is crippled or destroyed, no? They have olives and copper, no? And the Valyrians of old saw to it that the land is not very fertile.

Without the slave trade no ambitious/smart man is going to want to remain there. Perhaps some fools will, but Skahaz is no fool.

Maybe not Skahaz, then, but historically, olive groves have been a considerable source of wealth, and sustained quite big populations around the Mediterranean Sea and across the Middle East, in antiquity.  The river that flows through Meereen. and is controlled for 150 miles upwards from Meereen, would presumably fertilise a substantial hinterland, like the Tigris,  Euphrates, or Nile.   There's a reference to wine being produced in Mereen's hinterland, so in all likelihood, the climate also supports crops like oranges and lemons, figs, dates, and durum wheat.

I should think the population of the whole State of Meereen would run into the low millions.  Dany would want to take soldiers with her Westward. but I can't see how she'd transfer the rest. The overland road to Volantis would surely be fatal for anyone but trained soldiers. The Dothraki could ride overland to Qohor, but civilians could hardly manage that. Many would be transported West by ship, but they would be tens of thousands, not millions.

 

[rotting sea cow]

5 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Maybe not Skahaz, then, but historically, olive groves have been a considerable source of wealth, and sustained quite big populations around the Mediterranean Sea and across the Middle East, in antiquity.  The river that flows through Meereen. and is controlled for 150 miles upwards from Meereen, would presumably fertilise a substantial hinterland, like the Tigris,  Euphrates, or Nile. 

I should think the population of the whole State of Meereen would run into the low millions.  Dany would want to take soldiers with her Westward. but I can't see how she'd transfer the rest. The overland road to Volantis would surely be fatal for anyone but trained soldiers. The Dothraki could ride overland to Qohor, but civilians could hardly manage that. Many would be transported West by ship, but they would be tens of thousands, not millions.

 

Dragons against Demons?

[Michael Snyder]

When slavery was ended in the US,  and the former slave states rejected Lincoln's initial program by trying to reinstitute slavery between 1865-68, Grant sent in the Army and Reconstruction started in earnest. The southern elites rejected and resisted Reconstruction, and when Federal troops were removed in 1876, promptly created laws and economic instruments that reduced the former slaves to a form of second class citizenship and economic slavery.

If Danerys does not set up a powerful and resourced administration of the cities that protects the former slaves and offsets the wealth and influence of both the former slave masters and slave sellers, her departure will see the return of old elite, who will hire mercenaries, make alliances with Volantis and the other slave cities and regain control. As far as slave revolts (or serf revolts) no matter how close some came, whether Spartacus or the Russian serf revolts of the late 18th century, they failed. No slave revolt anywhere has overturned the previous political/economic/social system and then established an enduring replacement. If disease destroys the population of Mereen, the city will either fall into ruin or be colonized by Volantis.

The idea that Danerys would send back an expedition from Westeros to set things right is built on the not necessarily correct supposition that Danerys wins the Throne and survived the coming Winter.

As far as a free market economy, that's a theoretical construct in macroeconomics, not a reality. But let's say the former slave masters start paying their former slaves. The income earned by the former slaves would not be sufficiently greater than the income earned by the masters from the slaves. In both instances, a market would be created for food, supplies and other products. In one case, the market would be greater for food stuffs and other life support items bought by the former slaves, compared to the luxuries imported and bought by the masters. The former slaves would have barely enough income in a pre-steam technology civilization to do more than feed, house and clothe themselves. The former masters would have insufficient capital to expand the economy. That's only if the masters not engaged in other economic activity found another way to generate products and income as a replacement for slaving. As such the economy would then deflate or collapse. The same happened in the US South. The income generated by the former slaves did not off-set the loss in spending power of the former slave masters. The ruin of the war left no industry for Northern capital to invest in and the Southern elite resisted the industrialization of the South for political and social reasons. The South became and remained an agrarian backwater in the US until the impact of industrial mobilization for WW2.

[SeanF]

4 minutes ago, Michael Snyder said:

When slavery was ended in the US,  and the former slave states rejected Lincoln's initial program by trying to reinstitute slavery between 1865-68, Grant sent in the Army and Reconstruction started in earnest. The southern elites rejected and resisted Reconstruction, and when Federal troops were removed in 1876, promptly created laws and economic instruments that reduced the former slaves to a form of second class citizenship and economic slavery.

If Danerys does not set up a powerful and resourced administration of the cities that protects the former slaves and offsets the wealth and influence of both the former slave masters and slave sellers, her departure will see the return of old elite, who will hire mercenaries, make alliances with Volantis and the other slave cities and regain control. As far as slave revolts (or serf revolts) no matter how close some came, whether Spartacus or the Russian serf revolts of the late 18th century, they failed. No slave revolt anywhere has overturned the previous political/economic/social system and then established an enduring replacement. If disease destroys the population of Mereen, the city will either fall into ruin or be colonized by Volantis.

The idea that Danerys would send back an expedition from Westeros to set things right is built on the not necessarily correct supposition that Danerys wins the Throne and survived the coming Winter.

As far as a free market economy, that's a theoretical construct in macroeconomics, not a reality. But let's say the former slave masters start paying their former slaves. The income earned by the former slaves would not be sufficiently greater than the income earned by the masters from the slaves. In both instances, a market would be created for food, supplies and other products. In one case, the market would be greater for food stuffs and other life support items bought by the former slaves, compared to the luxuries imported and bought by the masters. The former slaves would have barely enough income in a pre-steam technology civilization to do more than feed, house and clothe themselves. The former masters would have insufficient capital to expand the economy. That's only if the masters not engaged in other economic activity found another way to generate products and income as a replacement for slaving. As such the economy would then deflate or collapse. The same happened in the US South. The income generated by the former slaves did not off-set the loss in spending power of the former slave masters. The ruin of the war left no industry for Northern capital to invest in and the Southern elite resisted the industrialization of the South for political and social reasons. The South became and remained an agrarian backwater in the US until the impact of industrial mobilization for WW2.

Replacing slavery with free, paid, labour has the potential to boost productivity.   Slaves work as hard as they need to avoid a whipping.  Free workers work as hard as they need to turn a profit.

 

[Darth Sidious]

18 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Replacing slavery with free, paid, labour has the potential to boost productivity.   Slaves work as hard as they need to avoid a whipping.  Free workers work as hard as they need to turn a profit.

 

I can agree.  The master classes were not interested in innovation.  Nor where they interested in efficiency.  A new social system where labor is paid for will spread the wealth and allow for entrepreneurship and innovation to take place.  

1 hour ago, 867-5309 said:

Will it ever be as good for the former masters?   No, but that is not important.  Those people committed atrocities that make Ramsay Bolton, Jaime Lannister, and Theon Stark look like proper gentlemen.  The welfare of the former slaving families should never be a priority.  They just have to find another way to survive.  

I can agree, it will never be as good for the master classes again.  But that is the way it should be.  Slavery should not have started in the first place.  No doubt some of the old slaving families can find another way to make their money but many will not.  That's ok.  They have lived on the backs of their slaves for so long that it is only fair for them to struggle now.  I would go so far as to confiscate most of their wealth and set up agencies to help develop other industries.  There are skilled crafts people in Slaver's Bay.  Fishing, animal husbandry, agriculture.  Listen, the climate is better in Slaver's Bay than it is in Westeros.  There is a lot of potential for farming and fishing.  Citrus trees, olives, dates, tropical crops, grow well in warm conditions.  Sheep are easy to keep in that climate.  There is a lot of potential there.  

[SeanF]

3 minutes ago, Buell Rider said:

I can agree.  The master classes were not interested in innovation.  Nor where they interested in efficiency.  A new social system where labor is paid for will spread the wealth and allow for entrepreneurship and innovation to take place.  

I can agree, it will never be as good for the master classes again.  But that is the way it should be.  Slavery should not have started in the first place.  No doubt some of the old slaving families can find another way to make their money but many will not.  That's ok.  They have lived on the backs of their slaves for so long that it is only fair for them to struggle now.  I would go so far as to confiscate most of their wealth and set up agencies to help develop other industries.  There are skilled crafts people in Slaver's Bay.  Fishing, animal husbandry, agriculture.  Listen, the climate is better in Slaver's Bay than it is in Westeros.  There is a lot of potential for farming and fishing.  Citrus trees, olives, dates, tropical crops, grow well in warm conditions.  Sheep are easy to keep in that climate.  There is a lot of potential there.  

In financial terms, there's no reason why ex-slave-owners could not prosper in a free Meereen.  They have land, capital, and technical know-how.  Potentially, some of them could become richer than ever before, in an expanding economy. 

But, they would have to accept that (a) some ex-slaves and their descendants will also prosper, and the most successful will also become landowners, successful merchants, and political leaders.  The Great Masters will no longer monopolise wealth and power.  and (b) they will lose their power of life and death over their vast retinues of human beings.

 

[Darth Sidious]

1 minute ago, SeanF said:

In financial terms, there's no reason why ex-slave-owners could not prosper in a free Meereen.  They have land, capital, and technical know-how.  Potentially, some of them could become richer than ever before, in an expanding economy. 

But, they would have to accept that (a) some ex-slaves and their descendants will also prosper, and the most successful will also become landowners, successful merchants, and political leaders.  The Great Masters will no longer monopolise wealth and power.  and (b) they will lose their power of life and death over their vast retinues of human beings.

 

It is partly up to them.  To accept and move on.  Or continue to fight against the winds of change.  The latter choice will end fatally for them and hurt everybody else by impeding the restoration.

[Starkz]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Volantis, Lys, Myr, and Tyrosh will also end their slaver policy. Dany and her forces will see to that, too. But unlike the cities of Slaver's Bay these cities can survive without the slave trade. They will have to change, sure, but unlike the cities in Slaver's Bay they can do that.

I can’t see any of those places just giving up the slave trade willingly. Volantis is quite a powerful city and slave trade is the major focal point of everything in Volantis. Taking away the slave trade from Volantis of all places is going to be chaotic and will probably end the same as Astapor. It would take several books for Dany to force slavery out of all of these cities unless GRRM decides to make things very convenient for her, she still has to deal with Aegon and getting to Westeros.

[Starkz]

2 hours ago, 867-5309 said:

You can lay the blame on the masters for burning their trees and groves.  The area has access to the oceans.  They can take up fishing.  Farming is a great option.  They will now have to pay people to perform the labor but that is actually good for the economy overall.  Not good for the former masters, but they don't deserve consideration.

Will it ever be as good for the former masters?   No, but that is not important.  Those people committed atrocities that make Ramsay Bolton, Jaime Lannister, and Theon Stark look like proper gentlemen.  The welfare of the former slaving families should never be a priority.  They just have to find another way to survive.  

There is no way to slowly phase out slavery.  That only gives the masters more time to rearm and gather strength to fight Dany's reforms.  Each day that slavery continues means the suffering, the murder, torture, and enslavement of millions of people.  This is a case where waiting for the perfect time, which will never come, is the wrong decision.  There will never be a time when you can remove something as entrenched as thousands of years of slavery and make a smooth transition.  Everything Dany did is correct.  Dany is not to blame because releasing the slaves is the right thing to do. 

The things is they don’t know how to fish or farm they have slaves do all of this stuff for them. Also Ramsay is probably on par with slavers.

[Darth Sidious]

41 minutes ago, Starkz said:

I can’t see any of those places just giving up the slave trade willingly. Volantis is quite a powerful city and slave trade is the major focal point of everything in Volantis. Taking away the slave trade from Volantis of all places is going to be chaotic and will probably end the same as Astapor. It would take several books for Dany to force slavery out of all of these cities unless GRRM decides to make things very convenient for her, she still has to deal with Aegon and getting to Westeros.

I am absolutely sure the slave owners won't give up without a fight.  And it will be a fight to the death for most of them.  They are in the wrong on this issue because they want to maintain slavery.  D-Day is coming for these slave owners and they know it. 

To the underlined, this is why I believe Dany will survive through the long night to make sure slavery ends for good.  She is the only one of the primary characters who will still have a large role to play beyond just fighting the white walkers.  She has another Queendom, another life, outside of Westeros.  The other primary characters only have their lives in Westeros and they have no other role to fulfill beyond fighting the white walkers.  

[Starkz]

34 minutes ago, Buell Rider said:

I am absolutely sure the slave owners won't give up without a fight.  And it will be a fight to the death for most of them.  They are in the wrong on this issue because they want to maintain slavery.  D-Day is coming for these slave owners and they know it. 

To the underlined, this is why I believe Dany will survive through the long night to make sure slavery ends for good.  She is the only one of the primary characters who will still have a large role to play beyond just fighting the white walkers.  She has another Queendom, another life, outside of Westeros.  The other primary characters only have their lives in Westeros and they have no other role to fulfill beyond fighting the white walkers.  

That’s debatable. Other primary characters are going to need to rebuild Westeros it’s already declining and with all of the wars and battles about to converge on it Westeros its going to need leaders now more than ever. The primary characters definitely have a role beyond fighting the WW. I don’t think slavery will ever be gone for good in the free cities and I think Dany will come to realize all the death and destruction her campaign has caused and set sail for Westeros leaving behind the rubble. She’s a conquerer after all, not a ruler.

[hodorisfaclessman]

7 hours ago, Ylath's Snout said:

That's what they did in the American south (sort of) after the civil war but the problem is that those former-slaves produced things like indigo and tobacco. Slaver's Bay's (wow that looks naff) major export is slavers so how would that work?

 

Exports will be hit hard yes  but for day to day stuff like say a cleaning slave now being paid who would then buy their own food,  lodgings,clothes etc would solve a lot of issues  (such as the teaching slave who begged dany to let him be a slave again)and would help evebtualy the economy adjust to 'normal'  (with no doubt a much smaller gdp more in proportion to the cities now non slave producing  statuea

 The economy will no doubt take a huge nosedive  at first at least it would be better then the failed state dany created that has no way to move forward.

Meeren is better insulated from the breakdown of slavery than the other 2 as it still has the fighting pits and is well situated for trade ....that said the more apt comparisonn would be if we suddently perfected fusion and its effect on oil states.!