Was KL a poisoned apple for Stannis without the Tyrell's support?

[The Sleeper]

9 minutes ago, Giant Ice Spider said:

What if Renly got a child by Margaery before the war ended?

It is a risk. He still would have much better odds by allying himself to Renly.

The way to deal with this. In for a penny, in for a pound. It's not like Stannis isn't already a kinslayer, or that he didn't seriously contemplate sacrificing his nephew on the wild hope that he might have gotten a dragon. 

There are less bloody ways to accommodate the situation, but Stannis wants to be king. The shortest route is the one I described above. 

[Ylath's Snout]

3 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

Could be that the Northmen can be bought but given how many people would be involved in getting a share I'm not sure that each individual share would be so great, especially since the king himself would likely carter off a lion's share (pun not intended).

The Rock has been the Lannisters keep and gold mine sense the Age of Heroes, I get the feeling there is plenty of plunder to go around if you manage to take it.

I wonder if the rest of House Lannister would be willing to sell out Tywin to save their own hides if Stannis pulled of a successful invasion of the Westerlands? 

[Lion of the West]

10 minutes ago, Ylath's Snout said:

The Rock has been the Lannisters keep and gold mine sense the Age of Heroes, I get the feeling there is plenty of plunder to go around if you manage to take it.

I wonder if the rest of House Lannister would be willing to sell out Tywin to save their own hides if Stannis pulled of a successful invasion of the Westerlands? 

The Lannisters haven't been hoarding gold since the Age of Heroes. They've been spending it more than just pilling it up. Not spending it as much as Robert Baratheon did, but still spending it.

There's no chance in hell that a coup within House Lannister would be even possible. Just who would take part in it? All the senior Lannisters seems perfectly loyal to Tywin from everything we know.

[Ylath's Snout]

58 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

There's no chance in hell that a coup within House Lannister would be even possible. Just who would take part in it? All the senior Lannisters seems perfectly loyal to Tywin from everything we know.

Maybe but House Lannister is pretty large. You don't have to be top lion to betray the pride so to speak.

Would the Lannisport Lannisters be willing to die becouse Tywin has breed a pair of incestious ding-bats?

[Lion of the West]

1 hour ago, Ylath's Snout said:

Maybe but House Lannister is pretty large. You don't have to be top lion to betray the pride so to speak.

Would the Lannisport Lannisters be willing to die becouse Tywin has breed a pair of incestious ding-bats?

Problem is that without power of your own, you can't take down the big dog. You need influence and power in order to cause harm enough to topple Tywin. If some random Lannister soldier deserts Tywin, its not a thing. If a major lord deserts Tywin, its a thing. Thus if you want to see Tywin toppled from within you need someone who is in a position to make it happen.

Roose and Walder could take down Robb because they were in such positions where they could hurt Robb and they had their own soldiers tied to thems that could do the heavy lifting.

You essentially need stuff to do stuff.

As for the Lannisters of Lannisport, maybe they don't want to die for that, but what can they do about it, and do they want to die because Stannis has a solid ten yards pole up his ass? These Lannisters can probably surrender Lannisport, but can they surrender the Rock? Its unlikely that they will be able to command sodiers or such in order to make an opening for Stannis men to take the castle.

[hodorisfaclessman]

The main tyrell force floated up the river in barges ,stannis hasnt forseen the speed with which they could move  and he had a storm delay him too

Otherwise he takes kl and the tyrells have nowt

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 8/20/2018 at 3:43 AM, honorable men said:

The odds were in his favor and he would've repelled any attacks of retaking the capital. 

KL was starving. If he captures it, regardless of the Tyrells committing to Tywin or not, he's in a real bad spot with a fraction of his fleet left to ferry men elsewhere also he'd have no money in the treasury. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

On August 21, 2018 at 2:30 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

KL was starving. If he captures it, regardless of the Tyrells committing to Tywin or not, he's in a real bad spot with a fraction of his fleet left to ferry men elsewhere also he'd have no money in the treasury. 

Yes, but KL at the time of its starvation was also being blocked on the sea; can't Stannis merely ship food in from elsewhere besides highgarden?

[Universal Sword Donor]

57 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Yes, but KL at the time of its starvation was also being blocked on the sea; can't Stannis merely ship food in from elsewhere besides highgarden?

He doesn't have any coin, so unless the Bravoosi back him, he's still in a bad spot

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He doesn't have any coin, so unless the Bravoosi back him, he's still in a bad spot

No worse then he is at Dragonstone or the Wall

[Universal Sword Donor]

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

No worse then he is at Dragonstone or the Wall

Excepting the fact his army is 15x larger in KL in a city of 500k than the 1500 on DS or 1300 at the wall.

[Blackfish Tully]

On 8/24/2018 at 10:47 AM, Universal Sword Donor said:

He doesn't have any coin, so unless the Bravoosi back him, he's still in a bad spot

Stannis's situation after taking Kings Landing would depend a great deal on what the response of the rest of Westeros and Essos would be .  Every lord in Westeroes would have to evaluate their situation and decide what their actions going forward are going to be . Stannis would have the Stormlands and the lords sworn to Dragonstone on his side plus Sallador Saan and his ships , the Riverlands and North while not allies of Stannis are at least neutral and potential allies . Who knows what the Vale Lords would do and Dorne has their own plans so the Lords of the Reach would be the main deciders of what happens to Stannis . If any of the more powerful Lords like Hightower , Redwyne , Rowan or Tarly decide it's in there best interest to be one of the  first to bend the knee to Stannis then that could start a domino affect and before you know it Stannis is King on the Iron Throne and Tywin is in some serious trouble . 

[Universal Sword Donor]

4 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Stannis's situation after taking Kings Landing would depend a great deal on what the response of the rest of Westeros and Essos would be .  Every lord in Westeroes would have to evaluate their situation and decide what their actions going forward are going to be . Stannis would have the Stormlands and the lords sworn to Dragonstone on his side plus Sallador Saan and his ships , the Riverlands and North while not allies of Stannis are at least neutral and potential allies . Who knows what the Vale Lords would do and Dorne has their own plans so the Lords of the Reach would be the main deciders of what happens to Stannis . If any of the more powerful Lords like Hightower , Redwyne , Rowan or Tarly decide it's in there best interest to be one of the  first to bend the knee to Stannis then that could start a domino affect and before you know it Stannis is King on the Iron Throne and Tywin is in some serious trouble . 

I'll be honest, he's in an awful spot no matter what happens long term. He's in a starving city of 500K with a host of 20K and little to no means to feed them. Renly outmarched his supply lines and Stannis doesn't have the money to feed his newly enlarged army. He can send out foragers and demand fealty from the crownland nobles (who fought against him), but he's got no practical way for the immediate need of feeding his army, let alone KL. 

That Tywin is a short march away at HH doesn't help either. Stannis cannot stay or he gets bottled up, staving. If he leaves the city, it's easy enough for someone to take.

[aryagonnakill#2]

Lets not forget that in this scenario Stannis has not only taken Kings Landing, but everyone in it.  Meaning not only Sansa, but the Redwyn twins as well.  That is a big Reach house likely to declare fealty.  Paxter did what Cersei asked, he would do what Stannis asked.  And in this situation I find it hard to believe no one would be willing to extend a loan for food.  The Stormlands seem to feed themselves, Stannis can at least maintain his army on that.  Fishermen from Kings Landing could become productive again, other trade ships would be coming from the free cities and surely from the Vale to make a profit just like Davos did.  Stannis doesn't need to pay to feed the whole city, it just has to start operating again.  Every ship that comes and sells food pays the tariff or whatever for the privilege of selling in the city, that's money for Stannis, and food for the people at the same time.

Beyond the immediate situation is what the lords would do, I've already stated my position on this so I won't rehash everything but I feel like those people going against Stannis here really aren't being realistic.  When Renly died most of the Reach lords already went over to him.  With some time and some legitimacy, which Kings Landing gives him, those lords will reassert themselves in the Reach, and with Redwyn they will force the Tyrells hands.

[Universal Sword Donor]

29 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Lets not forget that in this scenario Stannis has not only taken Kings Landing, but everyone in it.  Meaning not only Sansa, but the Redwyn twins as well.  That is a big Reach house likely to declare fealty.  Paxter did what Cersei asked, he would do what Stannis asked.  And in this situation I find it hard to believe no one would be willing to extend a loan for food.  The Stormlands seem to feed themselves, Stannis can at least maintain his army on that.  Fishermen from Kings Landing could become productive again, other trade ships would be coming from the free cities and surely from the Vale to make a profit just like Davos did.  Stannis doesn't need to pay to feed the whole city, it just has to start operating again.  Every ship that comes and sells food pays the tariff or whatever for the privilege of selling in the city, that's money for Stannis, and food for the people at the same time.

Beyond the immediate situation is what the lords would do, I've already stated my position on this so I won't rehash everything but I feel like those people going against Stannis here really aren't being realistic.  When Renly died most of the Reach lords already went over to him.  With some time and some legitimacy, which Kings Landing gives him, those lords will reassert themselves in the Reach, and with Redwyn they will force the Tyrells hands.

Only one of the Redwyne twins is in KL during the battle.

Everything outside the walls was burned: 

“while on this side the Imp had fired the whole riverfront: docks and warehouses, homes and brothels, everything outside the city walls.”

Nowhere for the boats to dock and nowhere for food and merchandise to be stored. On top of that 1/4 of the kingswood is also burning so foraging for wild game is a lot harder, and the mountain clansmen are killing anyone they can find as well. Cersei intends for Payne to kill her and Sansa. Tommen is north of the city with men loyal to Tyrion. 

Even if Stannis takes the city with as few problems as possible, he's going to struggle to feed his men, let alone the entire city. The city had already rioted once because of starvation. They are still hungry enough to riot in front of the Red Keep to demand food right before the battle.

 

[aryagonnakill#2]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Only one of the Redwyne twins is in KL during the battle.

Everything outside the walls was burned: 

“while on this side the Imp had fired the whole riverfront: docks and warehouses, homes and brothels, everything outside the city walls.”

Nowhere for the boats to dock and nowhere for food and merchandise to be stored. On top of that 1/4 of the kingswood is also burning so foraging for wild game is a lot harder, and the mountain clansmen are killing anyone they can find as well. Cersei intends for Payne to kill her and Sansa. Tommen is north of the city with men loyal to Tyrion. 

Even if Stannis takes the city with as few problems as possible, he's going to struggle to feed his men, let alone the entire city. The city had already rioted once because of starvation. They are still hungry enough to riot in front of the Red Keep to demand food right before the battle.

 

By the time Tyrion wakes up the docks had been rebuilt.  There is plenty of food in the world, and a city full of people waiting to pay for it, the food will find its way in, that's capitalism.  In a lot of ways capitalism works really well, and this is one of them.  Not to mention Tywin wouldn't really be at Harrenhall, he is going to skulk back to the Westerlands to hole up.  While the Riverlands isn't going to have much food, we know the Vale has lots, and that the merchants want to sell it.  Food would come from Duskendale and Maidenpool if it absolutely had to.

[Universal Sword Donor]

15 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

By the time Tyrion wakes up the docks had been rebuilt.  There is plenty of food in the world, and a city full of people waiting to pay for it, the food will find its way in, that's capitalism.  In a lot of ways capitalism works really well, and this is one of them.  Not to mention Tywin wouldn't really be at Harrenhall, he is going to skulk back to the Westerlands to hole up.  While the Riverlands isn't going to have much food, we know the Vale has lots, and that the merchants want to sell it.  Food would come from Duskendale and Maidenpool if it absolutely had to.

Food that is going to take weeks and months to get to a starving city. Tyrion is in a coma for a month. 

Basically without active ports KL is gonna have a lot of people starving to death. And again, you're ignoring Tywin and his army at HH. He can set up a cordon around KL and Stannis will either have to give it up or face Tywin in a starving city. Stannis taking and keeping KL is a pipe dream.

[Arthur Peres]

I could be wrong, but didn't Stannis helped to starve the city by blocking the ports or something ?

If he did, he could call it off, trade would come back and the situation would start to improve, he has the biggest navy and other ships would start to come with supplies, LF was also able to raise more money charging people to enter in the city, Stannis could have gotten a little coin to spend on supplies, there is also the Redwynes that could be forced to his side.

There is also what would the other factions lose. Tywin if he lost KL is screwed. His lands are being pillaged by Northems, he lost KL to Stannis, his reserve army was destroyed, Cersei, Lancel and Tyrion are either killed or captured, Jaime is captured, Joffrey dead. He is failing to protect his family and his lands. Why would Mace keep backing him up in such a dire situation ?

Mace's army is mostly infantry and a lot of those men are sworn to men that are with Stannis now. The army, getting news of a Stannis victory could melt away or deflect to Stannis. Tarly had to kill thousands of Florents to keep control over them, would he be able to do it with the Fossoway, Varner, Meadows, and so on ?

[Arthur Peres]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Food that is going to take weeks and months to get to a starving city. Tyrion is in a coma for a month. 

 Basically without active ports KL is gonna have a lot of people starving to death. And again, you're ignoring Tywin and his army at HH. He can set up a cordon around KL and Stannis will either have to give it up or face Tywin in a starving city. Stannis taking and keeping KL is a pipe dream.

Tywin's army was the same size of Stannis, but Stannis would have more quality in troops and moral on his side, (Tywin would be coming back after a defeat at the fords and Stannis after a big victory), and this is not couting the walls of the city in Stannis favor.

Without Mace Tywin is doomed.

[Universal Sword Donor]

18 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Tywin's army was the same size of Stannis, but Stannis would have more quality in troops and moral on his side, (Tywin would be coming back after a defeat at the fords and Stannis after a big victory), and this is not couting the walls of the city in Stannis favor.

Without Mace Tywin is doomed.

Tywin has food. Stannis does not