Was KL a poisoned apple for Stannis without the Tyrell's support?

[Arthur Peres]

1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Tywin has food. Stannis does not

For the city Stannis may lack the supplies, but for his army I highly doubt it. We never hear of Stannis army having logistic problems with their supplies.

[aryagonnakill#2]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Food that is going to take weeks and months to get to a starving city. Tyrion is in a coma for a month. 

Basically without active ports KL is gonna have a lot of people starving to death. And again, you're ignoring Tywin and his army at HH. He can set up a cordon around KL and Stannis will either have to give it up or face Tywin in a starving city. Stannis taking and keeping KL is a pipe dream.

How am I ignoring him when I directly mentioned him in my post?  Tywin isn't going to position himself directly between the North/Riverlands and Stannis army, and setting up a cordon would mean dividing his army to block all roads.

As I mentioned merchants will find a way in, including sailing into Maidenpool and Duskendale and then going overland from there.  

Your assuming all worst case scenarios and then calling any one of them not happening a pipe dream.  Supposedly no houses are going to back the guy with the best claim who now controls two regions including the actual capital.  Apparently Robb doesn't care about his sister, Paxter Redwyn no longer cares about a son he cared for when Cersei held him, the Riverlands, Tywin apparently turned around when heading to the Riverlands but then didn't catch Stannis in time, but Robb and Edmure didn't recombine their forces and go after him, and most notably, the dozens of Reach Nobles who have already declared for Stannis can't provide food/gather men, or pressure Mace, and that Mace can keep any merchants from supplying food to Kings Landing.

Last point to note is that ships don't need docks to unload cargo, it just makes it go faster.  They would simply have to load it into the smaller row boats and take it ashore, which would admittedly take longer but certainly would not prevent them from doing it.

[Universal Sword Donor]

4 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

For the city Stannis may lack the supplies, but for his army I highly doubt it. We never hear of Stannis army having logistic problems with their supplies.

Because we never hear about Stannis' army after he leaves SE. Our POV is Davos. We know Renly has outmarched his supply lines. 

“He had outdistanced his supply lines, left food and forage days behind with all his wagons and mules and oxen.”

Then instead of bending the knee to Stannis, Loras and many reach lords march back to bitterbridge and put Stannis' men to the sword. So *maybe* he got some of the food in that baggage train, but he wouldn't have gotten much. He had 5000 men and suddenly finds himself with 21K or so. That's going to cause a lot of issues. He also has to march through a burning kingswood and deal with mountain clans harrying. Both severely limited his ability to forage. 

KL is already starving before the battle: 

“With no other food coming into the city, the price of fish was ten times what it had been before the war, and still rising. Those who had coin came to the riverfront each morning and each evening, in hopes of bringing home an eel or a pot of red crabs; those who did not slipped between the stalls hoping to steal, or stood gaunt and forlorn beneath the walls.”

“He had done all he could to feed the hungry city—he’d set several hundred carpenters to building fishing boats in place of catapults, opened the kingswood to any hunter who dared to cross the river, even sent gold cloaks foraging to the west and south—yet he still saw accusing eyes everywhere he rode.”

If tyrion cannot feed the city with access to the treasury and hunters and thousands of gold cloaks, Stannis will not be able to either.

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

18 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

How am I ignoring him when I directly mentioned him in my post?  Tywin isn't going to position himself directly between the North/Riverlands and Stannis army, and setting up a cordon would mean dividing his army to block all roads.

As I mentioned merchants will find a way in, including sailing into Maidenpool and Duskendale and then going overland from there.  

Stannis doesn't control Maidenpool or Duskendale. The Lannisters or Robb's forces do. 

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Your assuming all worst case scenarios and then calling any one of them not happening a pipe dream.  Supposedly no houses are going to back the guy with the best claim who now controls two regions including the actual capital.  Apparently Robb doesn't care about his sister, Paxter Redwyn no longer cares about a son he cared for when Cersei held him, the Riverlands, Tywin apparently turned around when heading to the Riverlands but then didn't catch Stannis in time, but Robb and Edmure didn't recombine their forces and go after him, and most notably, the dozens of Reach Nobles who have already declared for Stannis can't provide food/gather men, or pressure Mace, and that Mace can keep any merchants from supplying food to Kings Landing.

Sansa and Cersei would be dead. Redwyne's son would either be dead or in a jail. He was injured in the fighting as it stood. Redwyne is pretty irrelevant though, since he ships will take months to getthere.

Robb is far to the west and Edmure doesn't have enough men to attack Tywin. 

As to the Reach nobles helping Stannis, well Mace and Tarly have already put the "traitors" to the sword at Bitterbridge and kept the roseroad closed to merchants and food until after the BotB. Yet somehow you expect things to play out differently.

The only thing that would really change imo is Tywin taking Stannis in the rear without overwhelming superiority. It would still end badly for Stannis

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Last point to note is that ships don't need docks to unload cargo, it just makes it go faster.  They would simply have to load it into the smaller row boats and take it ashore, which would admittedly take longer but certainly would not prevent them from doing it.

Stannis doesn't have the coin to pay for food. We know this. Tyrion's first priority as treasurer is to rebuild the docks:

“Before we can open the port again, the Blackwater’s going to have to be dredged, the sunken ships broken up or raised. Three-quarters of the quays need repair, and some may have to be torn down and rebuilt. The entire fish market is gone, and both the River Gate and the King’s Gate are splintered from the battering Stannis gave them and should be replaced. I shudder to think of the cost.”

“The cost of rebuilding was going to be ruinous, but there was no help for that. King’s Landing was the realm’s principal harbor, rivaled only by Oldtown. The river had to be reopened, and the sooner the better. And where am I going to find the bloody coin?”

And then we see how high the prices still are even after the Tyrells bring in their precious bounty:

“The lucky ones might be able to buy a heel of stale bread tonight. He had never seen markets so crowded, and for all the food the Tyrells were bringing in, prices remained shockingly high. Six coppers for a melon, a silver stag for a bushel of corn, a dragon for a side of beef or six skinny piglets. Yet there seemed no lack of buyers. Gaunt men and haggard women crowded around every wagon and stall, while others even more ragged looked on sullenly from the mouths of alleys.”

Stannis has no money, no large stores of food to deliver, and even Tyrion with the backing of the two richest houses is hugely daunted by the price and effort of rebuilding the docks.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

ly thing that would really change imo is Tywin taking Stannis in the rear without overwhelming superiority. It would still end badly for Stannis

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I have to say  reading this I kinda got a chuckle reading this. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

3 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

 

Stannis doesn't control Maidenpool or Duskendale. The Lannisters or Robb's forces do. 

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A fair point. Neither would simply allow mercents to travel to KL to feed their enemies. a few smugglers might pass over to sell food at ridiculously inflated prices(like Davos did for Stannis before) but there's not going to be enough merchandise to fill the stomachs of 500,000+ people. 

[Blackfish Tully]

13 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

As to the Reach nobles helping Stannis, well Mace and Tarly have already put the "traitors" to the sword at Bitterbridge and kept the roseroad closed to merchants and food until after the BotB. Yet somehow you expect things to play out differently.

 

Once Stannis takes the city he would begin dredging the Blackwater just as Tywin did and have supplies brought in from the Strormlands and the Lords of the Narrow Sea as well as whatever supplies he can get from Essos and also from any other Westeros Lord who decides to bend the knee  . The big question would be how many if any Lords of Westeros would bend the knee to him after Kings Landing , if he could get a few of the bigger lords (i.e Hightower , Redwyne , Royce , Martell etc..) it could start a domino effect . 

[Blackfish Tully]

14 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Food that is going to take weeks and months to get to a starving city. Tyrion is in a coma for a month. 

Basically without active ports KL is gonna have a lot of people starving to death. And again, you're ignoring Tywin and his army at HH. He can set up a cordon around KL and Stannis will either have to give it up or face Tywin in a starving city. Stannis taking and keeping KL is a pipe dream.

Tywin has only 20,000 soldiers at Harrenhall with little chance of resupply or reinforcements from the Westerlands so he would have to be very careful  with his next moves or he could lose everything .  Kings Landing is a large city that would be difficult to cut off without spreading his army pretty thin (is he going to have an army on both sides of the Blackwater?) and Stannis also has a sizable  army inside the city (and can bring up reinforcements from the Stormlands) that could pour out the gates and attack any vulnerable points in Tywin's lines so Tywin would have to be careful that by trying to cut off Stannis from supplies he does not expose himself to a trap especially with Robb and the Riverlords out there waiting to attack him. Without the support of the Tyrells it would be very difficult for Tywin with his 20,000 soldiers to really do anything significant to Stannis , he would more than likely make a run back to the Westerlands to hopefully drive out Robb and regroup there . 

[aryagonnakill#2]

15 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Stannis doesn't control Maidenpool or Duskendale. The Lannisters or Robb's forces do. 

Sansa and Cersei would be dead. Redwyne's son would either be dead or in a jail. He was injured in the fighting as it stood. Redwyne is pretty irrelevant though, since he ships will take months to getthere.

Robb is far to the west and Edmure doesn't have enough men to attack Tywin. 

As to the Reach nobles helping Stannis, well Mace and Tarly have already put the "traitors" to the sword at Bitterbridge and kept the roseroad closed to merchants and food until after the BotB. Yet somehow you expect things to play out differently.

The only thing that would really change imo is Tywin taking Stannis in the rear without overwhelming superiority. It would still end badly for Stannis

Stannis doesn't have the coin to pay for food. We know this. Tyrion's first priority as treasurer is to rebuild the docks:

“Before we can open the port again, the Blackwater’s going to have to be dredged, the sunken ships broken up or raised. Three-quarters of the quays need repair, and some may have to be torn down and rebuilt. The entire fish market is gone, and both the River Gate and the King’s Gate are splintered from the battering Stannis gave them and should be replaced. I shudder to think of the cost.”

“The cost of rebuilding was going to be ruinous, but there was no help for that. King’s Landing was the realm’s principal harbor, rivaled only by Oldtown. The river had to be reopened, and the sooner the better. And where am I going to find the bloody coin?”

And then we see how high the prices still are even after the Tyrells bring in their precious bounty:

“The lucky ones might be able to buy a heel of stale bread tonight. He had never seen markets so crowded, and for all the food the Tyrells were bringing in, prices remained shockingly high. Six coppers for a melon, a silver stag for a bushel of corn, a dragon for a side of beef or six skinny piglets. Yet there seemed no lack of buyers. Gaunt men and haggard women crowded around every wagon and stall, while others even more ragged looked on sullenly from the mouths of alleys.”

Stannis has no money, no large stores of food to deliver, and even Tyrion with the backing of the two richest houses is hugely daunted by the price and effort of rebuilding the docks.

 

Stannis doesn't have to pay for the food, people buy their own food.  Yes its a shit situation for the peasants but in time it will get better.  They are not going to revolt against him as long as the situation is getting better, it doesn't need to be perfect immediately.

Tarly didn't kills tens of thousands of men at Bitterbridge, he put some men to the sword to make the others fall in line, but its not as though they took all the nobles who bent the knee to Stannis' castles, its not as if they can just pretend that never happened.

Again I point out your defining this situation in the worst possible terms, why in gods name would Robb not be friendly with Stannis right now?  Why would Tywin be attacking Stannis force in the rear unless he was informed of the Tyrells joining him?  Why does he even hold Harrenhall when Bolton took it when he left anyway?  Why can't Stannis secure the Crownlands/Duskendale/Maidenpool if Tywin is all the way at Harrenhall?

If you define this situation like you are doing then of course it seems much worse, but if Tywin took him in the rear why didn't Tywin win anyway?  The OP simply says if he succeeded in taking it.  It does not specify all the circumstances and maybe that is the problem.  Your looking at the narrowest and worst possible difference it seems, with Tyrell and Lannister forces getting to the city as Stannis was almost done but still wounding him, while Sansa and Redwyn die, and admittedly that would be a bad situation.  I'm looking at it as if Tywin broke through west, or never made a deal with the Tyrells, and can't envision a scenario where Sansa actually gets killed, although on that one maybe I should.  However we are not told of anyone being assigned to kill Redwyn.

Even in your situation though I do believe you are not giving enough importance to perception.  Tommen may be alive but no one will know that.  All everyone will know is that Stannis took Kings Landing, Joffrey is dead, Cersei is dead, Renly is dead.  Look how quickly the Reach lords bent the knee to Stannis when Renly died.  Poof, one guy dies and now Stannis has lords racing to bend the knee.  The same situation would happen if he took Kings Landing.  Stannis will look like the guy you want to back.  Robb would have bent the knee to Stannis in the first place if it wasn't for Renly, and now there is no Renly.  The Riverlands would love an ally to get rid of Tywin once and for all, Robb would be hard pressed to keep them loyal if he did not bend the knee, and even without Sansa Stannis still has Ice.

[Blackfish Tully]

Without the Tyrells support Tywin is in much worse shape then Stannis . At least Stannis has the support of the Stormlands and Lords of the Narrow Sea to draw men and supplies from . What does Tywin have to draw from ? Robb has crushed 2 of his armies and invaded the Westerlands effectively cutting Tywin off from any reinforcements or supplies . Tywin can either fight his way  across the Riverlands to get back to the Westerlands and then fight Robb to drive him out of the Westerlands while the whole time Stannis would be consolidating power in Kings Landing or Tywin can try to drive Stannis out of Kings Landing (which would be difficult since Stannis has nearly as many men as Tywin) while watching for Robb and the Riverlords attacking him from the rear . Either way he is in big trouble . 

[Universal Sword Donor]

6 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Once Stannis takes the city he would begin dredging the Blackwater just as Tywin did and have supplies brought in from the Strormlands and the Lords of the Narrow Sea as well as whatever supplies he can get from Essos and also from any other Westeros Lord who decides to bend the knee  . The big question would be how many if any Lords of Westeros would bend the knee to him after Kings Landing , if he could get a few of the bigger lords (i.e Hightower , Redwyne , Royce , Martell etc..) it could start a domino effect . 

He can't afford to dredge after BW. The treasury is empty so Essos is out, and he's an enemy of the two richest houses of the realms. The supplies from the Reach are not enough to adequately feed the city. The SL and the narrow sea lords cannot come near producing the amount of food the Tyrells brought in.

Royce and Martell aren't going anywhere. Doran suddenly holds the only known child Baratheon heir. He's allied with the Lannisters. His armies will sit in the passes like they did when Renly was king. The Tyrells and their bannermen have no desire to ally with Stannis and the Lannisters can still produce a better heir (possibly two) as needed.

[Blackfish Tully]

2 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He can't afford to dredge after BW. The treasury is empty so Essos is out, and he's an enemy of the two richest houses of the realms. The supplies from the Reach are not enough to adequately feed the city. The SL and the narrow sea lords cannot come near producing the amount of food the Tyrells brought in.

Royce and Martell aren't going anywhere. Doran suddenly holds the only known child Baratheon heir. He's allied with the Lannisters. His armies will sit in the passes like they did when Renly was king. The Tyrells and their bannermen have no desire to ally with Stannis and the Lannisters can still produce a better heir (possibly two) as needed.

why can't he dredge after BW? he has thousands of men plus the resources of the Stormlands and Narrow Sea so why would he not be able to dredge it ?  . As for Essos  Stannis could borrow money just  the same as anybody else , Cersei built 10 massive ships so there must be some money in the treasury. 

Doran is only allied with the Lannisters to keep his true plans secret , he would totally screw Tywin given half a chance . 

Why would the Tyrell bannermen have no desire to ally with Stannis ? The Florents already have allied with him so what would stop the Redwyne , Hightower etc .. 

Why do you say Royce is not going anywhere , what do you base that on? 

[Universal Sword Donor]

4 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Stannis doesn't have to pay for the food, people buy their own food.  Yes its a shit situation for the peasants but in time it will get better.  They are not going to revolt against him as long as the situation is getting better, it doesn't need to be perfect immediately.

Stannis needs to be able to provide food for his army, which is 4x larger than it had been when he was scraping soldiers and supplies together. And he's not going to be finding much in the way of supplies in the starving city.

4 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Tarly didn't kills tens of thousands of men at Bitterbridge, he put some men to the sword to make the others fall in line, but its not as though they took all the nobles who bent the knee to Stannis' castles, its not as if they can just pretend that never happened.

You're absolutely right but yet those forces march nowhere, excepting home, until Mace cuts a new teal with Tywin because he knows that Stannis loathes him and Redwyne (with 1/4 of the men).

4 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Again I point out your defining this situation in the worst possible terms, why in gods name would Robb not be friendly with Stannis right now?  Why would Tywin be attacking Stannis force in the rear unless he was informed of the Tyrells joining him?  Why does he even hold Harrenhall when Bolton took it when he left anyway?  Why can't Stannis secure the Crownlands/Duskendale/Maidenpool if Tywin is all the way at Harrenhall?

Robb wouldn't ally with Stannis when Robert's children were alive. Robb doesn't even know/believe Stannis at this point, and both Myrcella and Tommen are still alive. Now you want him to do it while he's king? 

Why would Tywin do it? Well it's riders of out bitterbridge. He doesn't need the Tyrells to try to save KL and his family's life. He left behind a garrison of 100 lannister guardsmen and Hoat's crew. I don't know if he still held Harrenhal when he marched from the Red fork to KL -- right by Harrenhal -- but it either meant he still held it or Roose didn't have enough men to challenge him. Stannis can try to subdue the crownlands and I'd expect he'd forage but not piecemeal his army given any piece would likely be smaller than Roose's host, Tywin's host, or what Edmure could rally. He considers all of them his enemies.

4 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

If you define this situation like you are doing then of course it seems much worse, but if Tywin took him in the rear why didn't Tywin win anyway?  The OP simply says if he succeeded in taking it.  It does not specify all the circumstances and maybe that is the problem.  Your looking at the narrowest and worst possible difference it seems, with Tyrell and Lannister forces getting to the city as Stannis was almost done but still wounding him, while Sansa and Redwyn die, and admittedly that would be a bad situation.  I'm looking at it as if Tywin broke through west, or never made a deal with the Tyrells, and can't envision a scenario where Sansa actually gets killed, although on that one maybe I should.  However we are not told of anyone being assigned to kill Redwyn.

Well looking at it as it played out in the book minus the Tyrells. I'm saying there is no way Stannis ends up with the Tyrells, and I'm excluding them from joining Tywin. If Stannis takes the red keep, it'll be a bloodbath. She says as much. As to the Redwyne, he doesn't have to have to die. Keeping him hostage and injured means little and less. Redwyne's fleet doesn't leave the Arbor until after the battle anyway. He's got an heir at home but only sets sail when both are safe with him.

4 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Even in your situation though I do believe you are not giving enough importance to perception.  Tommen may be alive but no one will know that.  All everyone will know is that Stannis took Kings Landing, Joffrey is dead, Cersei is dead, Renly is dead.  Look how quickly the Reach lords bent the knee to Stannis when Renly died.  Poof, one guy dies and now Stannis has lords racing to bend the knee.  The same situation would happen if he took Kings Landing.  Stannis will look like the guy you want to back.  Robb would have bent the knee to Stannis in the first place if it wasn't for Renly, and now there is no Renly.  The Riverlands would love an ally to get rid of Tywin once and for all, Robb would be hard pressed to keep them loyal if he did not bend the knee, and even without Sansa Stannis still has Ice.

Honestly I'm not discounting those. They just are largely irrelevant or incorrect (e.g. Robb bending the knee). 

 

It's just completely bizarre that people keep ignoring the state of KL commerce, food stores, and Stannis' relative lack of resources and assume everything would be hunky dory. Starving people cause a lot of violence, the religion unrest would be present, and Stannis has no way to feed people.

[Universal Sword Donor]

11 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

why can't he dredge after BW? he has thousands of men plus the resources of the Stormlands and Narrow Sea so why would he not be able to dredge it ?  . As for Essos  Stannis could borrow money just  the same as anybody else , Cersei built 10 massive ships so there must be some money in the treasury. 

Doran is only allied with the Lannisters to keep his true plans secret , he would totally screw Tywin given half a chance . 

Why would the Tyrell bannermen have no desire to ally with Stannis ? The Florents already have allied with him so what would stop the Redwyne , Hightower etc .. 

Why do you say Royce is not going anywhere , what do you base that on? 

Because he was broke? He couldn't even afford to pay Saan. He had to give him the treasury, which we know is empty. Lannister gold and Tyrell gold are out. He worships the lord of light so the HS is out. He can't collect any customs because they are gone and his docks ruined.

It would take a lot of time and money to get food across from the narrow sea on top of the time needed to negotiate a loan from the IB or someone else.

Why would the tyrell bannermen side with Stannis? He worships a foreign god. His army is no more powerful than Tywin's. Most of them --Tyrell, Tarly, Rowan, Redwyne -- participated in the Siege of Storms end and he loathes them. There's a reason why they went to Tywin in the first place. 

Lysa is still alive at this point. Royce never left the Vale while she was. LF might be alive, depending on if he got back to KL or whatnot, but Royce is *still* in the Vale when LF is regent of SR. Basically the Vale forces are a complete non-issue for this conversation unless Lysa dies earleir and we completely rewrite the aim of this thread 

[Blackfish Tully]

1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Because he was broke? He couldn't even afford to pay Saan. He had to give him the treasury, which we know is empty. Lannister gold and Tyrell gold are out. He worships the lord of light so the HS is out. He can't collect any customs because they are gone and his docks ruined.

 

Once he took Kings Landing he would have access to all the resources of the city and the Iron Throne so i would think that he could make it work , Stannis has been in a starving city before so it would be nothing new for him . Cersei built 10 massive warship so there was money somewhere . 

2 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

It would take a lot of time and money to get food across from the narrow sea on top of the time needed to negotiate a loan from the IB or someone else.

 

so it takes time , he has the resources  of the Stormlands and Narrow Sea to get him through plus whatever lords bend the knee . 

 

8 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Why would the tyrell bannermen side with Stannis? He worships a foreign god. His army is no more powerful than Tywin's. Most of them --Tyrell, Tarly, Rowan, Redwyne -- participated in the Siege of Storms end and he loathes them. There's a reason why they went to Tywin in the first place. 

 

where do you get the fact that Stannis loathes the Lords who participated in the Siege of Storms End ? Stannis told Davos that he had trouble deciding between his brother and his king so why would he hate them for their choice ? 

11 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

Lysa is still alive at this point. Royce never left the Vale while she was. LF might be alive, depending on if he got back to KL or whatnot, but Royce is *still* in the Vale when LF is regent of SR. Basically the Vale forces are a complete non-issue for this conversation unless Lysa dies earleir and we completely rewrite the aim of this thread 

just because Royce never left the Vale does not mean he wouldn't . We know that he was close to open revolt during the war so how long until he decides to ignore Lysa ? 

[Universal Sword Donor]

Just now, Blackfish Tully said:

Once he took Kings Landing he would have access to all the resources of the city and the Iron Throne so i would think that he could make it work , Stannis has been in a starving city before so it would be nothing new for him . Cersei built 10 massive warship so there was money somewhere . 

Cersei takes that money from repayments to the IB because they have no gold in the treasury. The money used to rebuild the docks was from the Lannisters and Tyrells, or more accurately all those soldiers that slept with prostitutes. Basically none of this gold is available to stannis because he banned prostitution, the HS won't let a blasphemer money, the treasury is empty, and if somehow he did generate the payments to the IB, witholding them just screws him over that much faster.

Just now, Blackfish Tully said:

so it takes time , he has the resources  of the Stormlands and Narrow Sea to get him through plus whatever lords bend the knee . 

Yeah it's barely adequate and still more expensive than Tyrion has ever seen with a region, able to field 3x-4x the men and more ships than Stannis can, providing everything they can spare to the capital.

Just now, Blackfish Tully said:

where do you get the fact that Stannis loathes the Lords who participated in the Siege of Storms End ? Stannis told Davos that he had trouble deciding between his brother and his king so why would he hate them for their choice ? 

LF's words.

Stannis' own words: “I held Storm’s End for him, watching good men starve while Mace Tyrell and Paxter Redwyne feasted within sight of my walls.”

“Those swords are sworn to Renly. They love my charming young brother, as they once loved Robert . . . and as they have never loved me.”

And once again, they won't join because they didn't when they had the chance and put to the sword men sworn to Mace when their lords went over to Stannis

Just now, Blackfish Tully said:

just because Royce never left the Vale does not mean he wouldn't . We know that he was close to open revolt during the war so how long until he decides to ignore Lysa ? 

Well forever? He never ignored Lysa's orders and he didn't march his men out to help when LF was in charge. He could have left the other LDs behind and marched his men out the Vale. He never did

[Blackfish Tully]

8 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

LF's words.

Stannis' own words: “I held Storm’s End for him, watching good men starve while Mace Tyrell and Paxter Redwyne feasted within sight of my walls.”

“Those swords are sworn to Renly. They love my charming young brother, as they once loved Robert . . . and as they have never loved me.”

And once again, they won't join because they didn't when they had the chance and put to the sword men sworn to Mace when their lords went over to Stannis

 

LF is the biggest liar in Westeros so how can we believe anything he says? Stannis forgave many Lords who joined Renly against him so why would he not forgive the Reach Lords ? 

They did not join him because it was in their best interest to join Renly and then later Tywin but once Stannis takes Kings Landing they would each have to rethink their decision and decide what is best for their territory , i'm sure some especially Hightower and Redwyne would be looking for the situation that ends the war as fast as possible since war is bad for business. 

8 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

Well forever? He never ignored Lysa's orders and he didn't march his men out to help when LF was in charge. He could have left the other LDs behind and marched his men out the Vale. He never did

  forever ? i find it hard to believe that Royce would just sit there and do nothing forever but who knows . 

 

[Arthur Peres]

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Why would the tyrell bannermen side with Stannis? He worships a foreign god. His army is no more powerful than Tywin's. Most of them --Tyrell, Tarly, Rowan, Redwyne -- participated in the Siege of Storms end and he loathes them. There's a reason why they went to Tywin in the first place. 

Because they did?

Florent, both branchs of Fossoway, Meadows, Mulendore, Varner, Willum sidded with Stannis. If he has the Redwynes as hostages he can also put them on him boat.

Also, Stannis's army is stronger than Tywin. Stannis has 20k in cavalry alone acording do Davos.

"The kingsroad ran from Storm’s End straight to King’s Landing, a much shorter route than by sea, and his host was largely mounted; near twenty thousand knights, light horse, and freeriders"

Tywin on the other hand has 20k in total and a lot of them are peasants ill equiped.

He watched Ser Gregor as the Mountain rode up and down the line, shouting and gesticulating. This wing too was all cavalry, but where the right was a mailed fist of knights and heavy lancers, the vanguard was made up of the sweepings of the west: mounted archers in leather jerkins, a swarming mass of undisciplined freeriders and sellswords, fieldhands on plow horses armed with scythes and their fathers’ rusted swords, half-trained boys from the stews of Lannisport. . . and Tyrion and his mountain clansmen"

 

[Bernie Mac]

On 8/28/2018 at 12:05 AM, Arthur Peres said:

For the city Stannis may lack the supplies, but for his army I highly doubt it. We never hear of Stannis army having logistic problems with their supplies.

Yeah, we actually do. His march on Winterfell has been a logistics nightmare, his men starving and ill equipped for the weather they are in. 

He sailed to the wall with no supplies and is reliant on the Watch's stores to feed his army

 

13 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

LF is the biggest liar in Westeros so how can we believe anything he says?

Here is the speech in full

"Oh, a shred, surely," Littlefinger replied negligently. "Hear me out. Stannis is no friend of yours, nor of mine. Even his brothers can scarcely stomach him. The man is iron, hard and unyielding. He'll give us a new Hand and a new council, for a certainty. No doubt he'll thank you for handing him the crown, but he won't love you for it. And his ascent will mean war. Stannis cannot rest easy on the throne until Cersei and her bastards are dead. Do you think Lord Tywin will sit idly while his daughter's head is measured for a spike? Casterly Rock will rise, and not alone. Robert found it in him to pardon men who served King Aerys, so long as they did him fealty. Stannis is less forgiving. He will not have forgotten the siege of Storm's End, and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dare not. Every man who fought beneath the dragon banner or rose with Balon Greyjoy will have good cause to fear. Seat Stannis on the Iron Throne and I promise you, the realm will bleed.

 

There is nothing in that speech that appears to be a lie. 

 

 

[Blackfish Tully]

15 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Cersei takes that money from repayments to the IB because they have no gold in the treasury. The money used to rebuild the docks was from the Lannisters and Tyrells, or more accurately all those soldiers that slept with prostitutes. Basically none of this gold is available to stannis because he banned prostitution, the HS won't let a blasphemer money, the treasury is empty, and if somehow he did generate the payments to the IB, witholding them just screws him over that much faster.

 

I think the one thing that you are missing is that it's not Stannis's responsibility to feed the people of Kings Landing . The Iron Throne does not buy the food that the people eat , there are thousands of merchants and vendors in Kings Landing and the Crownlands , the Reach , Free Cities etc.. that provide the food for the people of Kings Landing to buy . Stannis's responsibility is to dredge the Blackwater and open up the roads so the merchants, vendors & farmers can get the food to the city to sell to the people . There must be tons of food piling up in the Reach and Crownlands and other places that have been waiting on the roads to open up so those farmers and merchants can sell in Kings Landing so as soon as they can they will send the food before it spoils and they lose a fortune . 

As for rebuilding the docks Stannis has thousands of soldiers that could be put to work on that and dredging the Blackwater so that should not be a problem.