Was KL a poisoned apple for Stannis without the Tyrell's support?

[Blackfish Tully]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Yeah, we actually do. His march on Winterfell has been a logistics nightmare, his men starving and ill equipped for the weather they are in. 

He sailed to the wall with no supplies and is reliant on the Watch's stores to feed his army

 

Here is the speech in full

"Oh, a shred, surely," Littlefinger replied negligently. "Hear me out. Stannis is no friend of yours, nor of mine. Even his brothers can scarcely stomach him. The man is iron, hard and unyielding. He'll give us a new Hand and a new council, for a certainty. No doubt he'll thank you for handing him the crown, but he won't love you for it. And his ascent will mean war. Stannis cannot rest easy on the throne until Cersei and her bastards are dead. Do you think Lord Tywin will sit idly while his daughter's head is measured for a spike? Casterly Rock will rise, and not alone. Robert found it in him to pardon men who served King Aerys, so long as they did him fealty. Stannis is less forgiving. He will not have forgotten the siege of Storm's End, and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dare not. Every man who fought beneath the dragon banner or rose with Balon Greyjoy will have good cause to fear. Seat Stannis on the Iron Throne and I promise you, the realm will bleed.

 

There is nothing in that speech that appears to be a lie. 

 

 

It's pretty clear that Littlefinger did not want to have Stannis as King (i'm assuming that one of Stannis first decisions would be replacing Littlefinger) so he was clearly biased against Stannis . Do you think that Littlefinger and Stannis had any relationship at all ? How would he know what Stannis felt about Tyrell and Redwyne ?  

Stannis told Davos that he had a problem deciding between his King and his brother so why would he have a problem that they choose their King? They were simply doing their duty by laying siege to Storms End so why would Stannis hold a grudge over that ? 

 desperate folly took hold of Davos, a recklessness akin to madness. "As you remained loyal to King Aerys when your brother raised his banners?" he blurted.

Shocked silence followed, until Ser Axell cried, "Treason!" and snatched his dagger from its sheath. "Your Grace, he speaks his infamy to your face!"

"I am your man, Your Grace. So it is your tongue, to do with as you please."

"It is," he said, calmer. "And I would have it speak the truth. Though the truth is a bitter draught at times. Aerys? If you only knew . . . that was a hard choosing. My blood or my liege. My brother or my king."

[Blackfish Tully]

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Robert found it in him to pardon men who served King Aerys, so long as they did him fealty. Stannis is less forgiving.

 

Littlefinger was wrong about Stannis not pardoning men who did him fealty (he pardoned all the Lords who joined Renly and then bent the knee to him after Renly's death ) so why wouldn't he be wrong about Stannis's feeling about Tyrell and Redwyne ? 

 

"Davos, I have missed you sorely," the king said. "Aye, I have a tail of traitors, your nose does not deceive you. My lords bannermen are inconstant even in their treasons. I need them, but you should know how it sickens me to pardon such as these when I have punished better men for lesser crimes. You have every right to reproach me, Ser Davos."

"You reproach yourself more than I ever could, Your Grace. You must have these great lords to win your throne—"

"Fingers and all, it seems." Stannis smiled grimly.

[Bernie Mac]

22 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Littlefinger was wrong about Stannis not pardoning men who did him fealty (he pardoned all the Lords who joined Renly and then bent the knee to him after Renly's death )

None, as far as we know, had actually fought against him. Which Lords who switched sides had fought against him? 

22 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

so why wouldn't he be wrong about Stannis's feeling about Tyrell and Redwyne ? 

 

Littlefinger's quote was true, look at what he did to his own in-law, Axell Florent. Stannis is less forgiving than Robert, that is 100% true, something Stannis himself points out. 

 

 "My brother had a gift for inspiring loyalty. Even in his foes. At Summerhall he won three battles in a single day, and brought Lords Grandison and Cafferen back to Storm's End as prisoners. He hung their banners in the hall as trophies. Cafferen's white fawns were spotted with blood and Grandison's sleeping lion was torn near in two. Yet they would sit beneath those banners of a night, drinking and feasting with Robert. He even took them hunting. 'These men meant to deliver you to Aerys to be burned,' I told him after I saw them throwing axes in the yard. 'You should not be putting axes in their hands.' Robert only laughed. I would have thrown Grandison and Cafferen into a dungeon, but he turned them into friends.

 

Tell me where Littlefinger was wrong? 

 

39 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

It's pretty clear that Littlefinger did not want to have Stannis as King (i'm assuming that one of Stannis first decisions would be replacing Littlefinger) so he was clearly biased against Stannis . Do you think that Littlefinger and Stannis had any relationship at all ?

and? Ned is well aware that Littlefinger would not want Stannis, that changes nothing about what is being said.

39 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

How would he know what Stannis felt about Tyrell and Redwyne ?  

 

Stannis is not exactly secretive about his thoughts. 

"Davos, I have missed you sorely," the king said. "Aye, I have a tail of traitors, your nose does not deceive you. My lords bannermen are inconstant even in their treasons. I need them, but you should know how it sickens me to pardon such as these when I have punished better men for lesser crimes. You have every right to reproach me, Ser Davos."

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The king pointed a finger at him. "I give you fair warning. If you force me to take my castle by storm, you may expect no mercy. I will hang you for traitors, every one of you."

 

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"What dishonor?" Stannis bristled. "Would you have me spare the lives of traitors?"

 

Importantly Ned, who knows Stannis pretty well, thinks it entirely accurate. That is how the realm perceives Stannis and ultimately, whether it true or not, is how the likes of Tyrell, Redwyne and Florent will react.  Even Cat is well aware of his reputation, in one of the greatest lines in the book

Stannis pointed his shining sword at his brother. "I am not without mercy," thundered he who was notoriously without mercy.

 

 

 

 

[Blackfish Tully]

15 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

None, as far as we know, had actually fought against him. Which Lords who switched sides had fought against him? 

 

They choose his younger brother over him and they were prepared to fight and kill him and his men until Renly was killed and then he pardoned them so why would it be any difference if they fought against him ? Are you saying that if Lord Redwyne with all his resources especially his thousands of ships came to Stannis and offered to bend the knee that Stannis would refuse his offer because 20 years ago Lord Redwyne had laid siege to Storms End ? that seems pretty hard to believe since he already has pardoned a bunch of lords that bring much less to the table then Redwyne would . 

 

15 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

Littlefinger's quote was true, look at what he did to his own in-law, Axell Florent. Stannis is less forgiving than Robert, that is 100% true, something Stannis himself points out. 

 

His in-law committed treason and was executed for it , that really has no bearing on this discussion 

 

15 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

and? Ned is well aware that Littlefinger would not want Stannis, that changes nothing about what is being said.

Stannis is not exactly secretive about his thoughts. 

"Davos, I have missed you sorely," the king said. "Aye, I have a tail of traitors, your nose does not deceive you. My lords bannermen are inconstant even in their treasons. I need them, but you should know how it sickens me to pardon such as these when I have punished better men for lesser crimes. You have every right to reproach me, Ser Davos."

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T

how does this quote help your argument? Stannis in the quote says that he pardoned these men so why would you use that quote ? sure he hated pardoning the Lords but i'm sure most Kings would not be happy pardoning Lords were were trying to kill them a short while ago . 

 

15 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Importantly Ned, who knows Stannis pretty well, thinks it entirely accurate. That is how the realm perceives Stannis and ultimately, whether it true or not, is how the likes of Tyrell, Redwyne and Florent will react.  Even Cat is well aware of his reputation, in one of the greatest lines in the book

 

The Florents are his biggest supporter in the Reach even after he burns Axell so i'm not sure what your point is ? He forgives all the Lords that joined Renly so why would he have any problem pardoning Tyrell or Redwyne especially when they would almost guarantee his victory .

[Bernie Mac]

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

They choose his younger brother over him and they were prepared to fight and kill him and his men until Renly was killed and then he pardoned them so why would it be any difference if they fought against him ?

But they had not fought against him.  Lords Tyrell and Redwyne actually had, he had suffered at their hands. 

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Are you saying that if Lord Redwyne with all his resources especially his thousands of ships came to Stannis and offered to bend the knee that Stannis would refuse his offer because 20 years ago Lord Redwyne had laid siege to Storms End ?

He punished Davos, a man who saved his life. Why would any Lord take the chance and allow him the chance to get power and start punishing people. 

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

that seems pretty hard to believe since he already has pardoned a bunch of lords that bring much less to the table then Redwyne would . 

He is in need of others to help him usurp the throne from his nephew.  If Ned crowns him he is not in need of winning the throne. Ned is aware of all the parties involved far better than the reader and nothing he hears stands out to him as a lie. 

Furthermore Mace's reactions, twice turning down Stannis, the second time imprisoning and killing Florents who might join him, indicates that Littlefinger was correct. 

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

His in-law committed treason and was executed for it , that really has no bearing on this discussion 

Of course it does. Stannis got beat on the Blackwater and Florent offered terms that would grant Stannis Dragonstone. Storm's End and a royal marriage, hugely favorable terms for Stannis, and Stannis executes his own in law for it. 

That is who he is, he who was notoriously without mercy. When you treat your own relatives like that then of course Lords who were trying to kill him, seen him starve, are going to be wary of him becoming king. 

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

how does this quote help your argument? Stannis in the quote says that he pardoned these men so why would you use that quote ?

Because he needs them to win the crown. If Ned gives him the crown he is free to do as he pleases. 

And those men did nothing as bad as Tyrell, Redwyne and Greyjoy and it sickened to pardon these men who did nothing to him.

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

sure he hated pardoning the Lords but i'm sure most Kings would not be happy pardoning Lords were were trying to kill them a short while ago . 

You don't hear Tywin saying that about them. 

 In the end they will bend the knee, yes. I mean to offer generous terms. Any castle that yields to us will be spared, save one."

"Harrenhal?" said Tyrion, who knew his sire.

 

and that is when he is in power with a huge majority and not actually in need of them. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

The Florents are his biggest supporter in the Reach even after he burns Axell so i'm not sure what your point is ?

 

He murders an in-law who was actually doing his job while Stannis sulked in silence. It was a harsh punishment. 

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

He forgives all the Lords that joined Renly so why would he have any problem pardoning Tyrell or Redwyne especially when they would almost guarantee his victory .

Littlefinger and Ned are not talking about fighting to make Stannis king, they are talking about Stannis being the automatic king, gaining power without fighting for it. Hugely different scenario. 

Though it puzzles me why you are ignoring Stannis himself on the subject

'These men meant to deliver you to Aerys to be burned,' I told him after I saw them throwing axes in the yard. 'You should not be putting axes in their hands.' Robert only laughed. I would have thrown Grandison and Cafferen into a dungeon, but he turned them into friends.

 

That is the man Balon, Mace and others would be wary of becoming king, the man who would punish when in power rather than forgive

 

[Blackfish Tully]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

But they had not fought against him.  Lords Tyrell and Redwyne actually had, he had suffered at their hands. 

He punished Davos, a man who saved his life. Why would any Lord take the chance and allow him the chance to get power and start punishing people. 

He is in need of others to help him usurp the throne from his nephew.  If Ned crowns him he is not in need of winning the throne. Ned is aware of all the parties involved far better than the reader and nothing he hears stands out to him as a lie. 

Furthermore Mace's reactions, twice turning down Stannis, the second time imprisoning and killing Florents who might join him, indicates that Littlefinger was correct. 

Of course it does. Stannis got beat on the Blackwater and Florent offered terms that would grant Stannis Dragonstone. Storm's End and a royal marriage, hugely favorable terms for Stannis, and Stannis executes his own in law for it. 

That is who he is, he who was notoriously without mercy. When you treat your own relatives like that then of course Lords who were trying to kill him, seen him starve, are going to be wary of him becoming king. 

Because he needs them to win the crown. If Ned gives him the crown he is free to do as he pleases. 

And those men did nothing as bad as Tyrell, Redwyne and Greyjoy and it sickened to pardon these men who did nothing to him.

You don't hear Tywin saying that about them. 

 In the end they will bend the knee, yes. I mean to offer generous terms. Any castle that yields to us will be spared, save one."

"Harrenhal?" said Tyrion, who knew his sire.

 

and that is when he is in power with a huge majority and not actually in need of them. 

 

 

 

He murders an in-law who was actually doing his job while Stannis sulked in silence. It was a harsh punishment. 

Littlefinger and Ned are not talking about fighting to make Stannis king, they are talking about Stannis being the automatic king, gaining power without fighting for it. Hugely different scenario. 

Though it puzzles me why you are ignoring Stannis himself on the subject

'These men meant to deliver you to Aerys to be burned,' I told him after I saw them throwing axes in the yard. 'You should not be putting axes in their hands.' Robert only laughed. I would have thrown Grandison and Cafferen into a dungeon, but he turned them into friends.

 

That is the man Balon, Mace and others would be wary of becoming king, the man who would punish when in power rather than forgive

 

This topic is focusing on what would happen to Stannis if he takes Kings Landing and Tywin does not have Tyrell support and at that point Stannis has already pardoned a great many Lords that betrayed him but then bent the knee to him and we have not seem him taking any revenge or cut any fingers off of any of the Lords . Lord Redwyne and Tyrell would know all about that and so they would know that if they came and bent the knee they would be welcomed back into the King's peace . We have seen enough of Stannis through Davos and Jon's eyes to know that he might grind his teeth about it but he will do what's best for Westeros and forgiving Tyrell and Redwyne for something that happened 20 years ago would not be that hard to do for him . This idea that Stannis is rigid and unforgiving is not borne out by the evidence , Davos betrayed him with Edric Storm and not only was he not killed he was made Hand . Axell Florent went behind the King's back to make his offer so Stannis killing him was not that hard to believe . 

[Universal Sword Donor]

10 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

I think the one thing that you are missing is that it's not Stannis's responsibility to feed the people of Kings Landing .The Iron Throne does not buy the food that the people eat , there are thousands of merchants and vendors in Kings Landing and the Crownlands , the Reach , Free Cities etc.. that provide the food for the people of Kings Landing to buy .

It's Stannis problem insofar as hundreds of thousands of starving desperate people will do what they can to save themselves. Lest you think that's not a problem, let me point at basically any siege in military history where people starve while surrounded by enemies. Or in-universe we can examine what happened when KL was besieged with no food and an army on the way. Or we can look at the riot where KL was in much better condition and still managed to attack nobles, kill KG, and burnt a large portion of the city.

Quote

Stannis's responsibility is to dredge the Blackwater and open up the roads so the merchants, vendors & farmers can get the food to the city to sell to the people . There must be tons of food piling up in the Reach and Crownlands and other places that have been waiting on the roads to open up so those farmers and merchants can sell in Kings Landing so as soon as they can they will send the food before it spoils and they lose a fortune . 

As for rebuilding the docks Stannis has thousands of soldiers that could be put to work on that and dredging the Blackwater so that should not be a problem. 

Stannis cannot open the roseroad. Only Mace can and he only tightens the roseroad cordon when Stannis marches north from SE. The crownlands doesn't have enough to feed KL or won't feed KL. That's half the reason KL is starving before and when the Tyrells arrive. The logistics for feed an army, let alone that population, are so ridiculously staggering I am kind of surprised this is even sticking as a point. 

Once again, and I cannot emphasize this enough, Stannis has absolutely no money. He can have all the unskilled labor in the world. That's great for helping him get the river cleared of trash and maybe cutting down lumber. He needs skilled craftsman (blacksmiths, masons, carpenters, et al) to rebuild the docks but cannot pay them. The lumber in the Kingswood is on fire. It's so bad the air in the red keep is ashy and smoky. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

4 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

This topic is focusing on what would happen to Stannis if he takes Kings Landing and Tywin does not have Tyrell support and at that point Stannis has already pardoned a great many Lords that betrayed him but then bent the knee to him and we have not seem him taking any revenge or cut any fingers off of any of the Lords . Lord Redwyne and Tyrell would know all about that and so they would know that if they came and bent the knee they would be welcomed back into the King's peace . We have seen enough of Stannis through Davos and Jon's eyes to know that he might grind his teeth about it but he will do what's best for Westeros and forgiving Tyrell and Redwyne for something that happened 20 years ago would not be that hard to do for him . This idea that Stannis is rigid and unforgiving is not borne out by the evidence , Davos betrayed him with Edric Storm and not only was he not killed he was made Hand . Axell Florent went behind the King's back to make his offer so Stannis killing him was not that hard to believe . 

We're disputing that that would happen. Tyrell is also not going to risk Highgarden on bending the knee to Stannis who cannot provide him what he wants. Stannis is surprisingly flexible, but that doesn't mean that Redwyne or Tyrell would bend the knee. Bear in mind they also just don't like Stannis and have put many Florent men to death. So they've fought him twice over, made him suffer greatly, and killed plenty of his wife's family.

[Universal Sword Donor]

23 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Because they did?

Florent, both branchs of Fossoway, Meadows, Mulendore, Varner, Willum sidded with Stannis. If he has the Redwynes as hostages he can also put them on him boat.

Also, Stannis's army is stronger than Tywin. Stannis has 20k in cavalry alone acording do Davos.

"The kingsroad ran from Storm’s End straight to King’s Landing, a much shorter route than by sea, and his host was largely mounted; near twenty thousand knights, light horse, and freeriders"

His original host had ~400 light cavalry. Renly brought 20K and Loras took 5K with him. That's still a lot of cavalry mind you but cavalry isn't real useful when you're shut up in the city. At that point you're (very useful) infantry. It really only benefits Stannis if he can catch Tywin unawares or in a flat area great for cavalry. Tywin is not caught unawares and his camps are perfectly designed to stop probing cavalry attacks.

23 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Tywin on the other hand has 20k in total and a lot of them are peasants ill equiped.

Some of them were ill equipped peasants. You'll note that the larger mentions in their are mounted archers and freeriders and sellswords, who are going to be properly armed but not as useful. More significantly, Tywin put them together in one place to effect a trap on Robb Stark.

23 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

He watched Ser Gregor as the Mountain rode up and down the line, shouting and gesticulating. This wing too was all cavalry, but where the right was a mailed fist of knights and heavy lancers, the vanguard was made up of the sweepings of the west: mounted archers in leather jerkins, a swarming mass of undisciplined freeriders and sellswords, fieldhands on plow horses armed with scythes and their fathers’ rusted swords, half-trained boys from the stews of Lannisport. . . and Tyrion and his mountain clansmen"

 

His army, which you are conveniently omitting Tyrion's description of, is pretty damn good. 

His uncle would lead the center. Ser kevan had raised his standards above the kingsroad. Quivers hanging from their belts, the foot archers arrayed themselves into three long lines to east and west of the road, and stood calmly stringing their bows. Between them pikemen formed squares, behind were rank on rank of men at arms with spear and sword and axe. Three hundred heavy horse surrounded ser kevan and the lords bannermen lefford, lydden and serrett with all their sworn retainers.

The right wing was all cavalry, some four thousand men, heavy with the weight of their armor. More then three quarters of the knights were there massed together like a great steel fist. Ser adam Marbrand had the command. Tyrion saw his banner unfurl as his standerd bearer shook it out, a burning tree, arange and smoke. Behind him flew ser flements purple unicorn the brindled boar of crakehall the bantam rooster of swyft, and more. His lord father took place on the hill where he had slept. Around him the reserve assembled, a huge force half mounted and half foot, five thousand strong. Lord tywin almost always chose to command the reserve...

The way we see them move in formation is even more impressive. In a pitched battle, I'm not necessarily betting on Tywin 100% of the time but it's hardly the rabble you make it out to be. I doubt that a battle between Stannis and Tywin would come to open battle anyway.

[Arthur Peres]

5 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

His original host had ~400 light cavalry. Renly brought 20K and Loras took 5K with him. That's still a lot of cavalry mind you but cavalry isn't real useful when you're shut up in the city. At that point you're (very useful) infantry. It really only benefits Stannis if he can catch Tywin unawares or in a flat area great for cavalry. Tywin is not caught unawares and his camps are perfectly designed to stop probing cavalry attacks.

Davos says nearly 20k on cavalry, this is after taking Renly's army, so Stannis could have gotten more suport somewhere else.

Stannis can also dismount his knights and use them as heavy infantry. His army is better in quality than Tywin's army, they have high moral and are in a good defensive position. Tywin has a army of the same size, worst in quality, low morale after coming from big defeats and has to siege a city that has an army of the same size of his...

If comes to battle everything points out to a Stannis victory.

13 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

His army, which you are conveniently omitting Tyrion's description of, is pretty damn good. 

Of course it is, but the quality of his army is lower than Stannis. Or do you disagree?

15 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The way we see them move in formation is even more impressive. In a pitched battle, I'm not necessarily betting on Tywin 100% of the time but it's hardly the rabble you make it out to be. I doubt that a battle between Stannis and Tywin would come to open battle anyway.

Why wouldn't?

Stannis has the numbers to face Tywin in battle and he needs to end the threat to his throne. Tywin needs to get a victory to save his cause or at least put him in a position where he can negotiate at the very leat a conditional surrender.

Tywin can't siege the city when the army inside it is just strong or stronger than his own, storming the city also would put him in a worst position having to breach the walls.

[Universal Sword Donor]

9 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Davos says nearly 20k on cavalry, this is after taking Renly's army, so Stannis could have gotten more suport somewhere else.

There's literally nowhere else he could have gotten them between the march to SE and KL. Pretty much all the SL fighting go with Renly or stay at home. And like I said, 15000+ cavalry of 20K men is largely mounted. You and I are in agreement here either way.  

9 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Stannis can also dismount his knights and use them as heavy infantry. His army is better in quality than Tywin's army, they have high moral and are in a good defensive position. Tywin has a army of the same size, worst in quality, low morale after coming from big defeats and has to siege a city that has an army of the same size of his...

Dismounting sounds familiar:

cavalry isn't real useful when you're shut up in the city. At that point you're (very useful) infantry. It really only benefits Stannis if he can catch Tywin unawares or in a flat area great for cavalry.

His army is relatively the same size as Stannis. Its quality might be lower from your perspective, but we know they have well-disciplined infantry, archers/crossbowmen, and tons of heavy cavalry. It's quality, both in book and according to GRRM, is pretty good. Their morale isn't great but that doesn't stop them from stomping Stannis on their way back. Morale doesn't really play a part here because they follow Tywin and his iron grip.

9 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Of course it is, but the quality of his army is lower than Stannis. Or do you disagree?

If you're arbitrarily rating men on a scale of 1 (peasants) to 10 (knights), I'd have to agree. However like I mentioned mixed forces are more flexible in engaging foes. Tywin's army is pretty much the model any Westerosi force we've seen assembled.

9 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Why wouldn't?

Stannis has the numbers to face Tywin in battle and he needs to end the threat to his throne. Tywin needs to get a victory to save his cause or at least put him in a position where he can negotiate at the very leat a conditional surrender.

Tywin can't siege the city when the army inside it is just strong or stronger than his own, storming the city also would put him in a worst position having to breach the walls.

It's actually pretty easy to besiege a city as large as KL. You don't have to have impassable siege lines. The city is already starving and he has basically no way to supply them if Tywin moves en force a few miles away from the major gates. If he fortifies some spots along the major roads (kingsroads, roseroad, goldroad, et al), he can stop all traffic going in and just let the city starve. It'd turn out to be a pretty decent fictional analogue of either siege of Antioch.

Tywin does have to marginally worry about Edmure in the back but Edmure and Robb will not bow to Stannis, so how much do they?

[Arthur Peres]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

t's actually pretty easy to besiege a city as large as KL. You don't have to have impassable siege lines. The city is already starving and he has basically no way to supply them if Tywin moves en force a few miles away from the major gates. If he fortifies some spots along the major roads (kingsroads, roseroad, goldroad, et al), he can stop all traffic going in and just let the city starve. It'd turn out to be a pretty decent fictional analogue of either siege of Antioch.

The siege of Antioch in the first crusade was a nightmare... if you're pointing any other siege please correct me.

The army of the crusaders wasn't big enough to blocked all the gates of the city and the city keep getting supplies. The crusades had to capture the port St Symeon to stop the city to get provisions. Even then the army was closer to starve then the city, they had to put down a good chunk of their own horses to feed themselfs. The defenders were able to constant raid the camps of the Crusaders, many of them deserted and the city only fall due to treason.

Don't know how this shows a easy task. Tywin's case is worse since the enemy army inside the city is stronger than his.

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 His army is relatively the same size as Stannis. Its quality might be lower from your perspective, but we know they have well-disciplined infantry, archers/crossbowmen, and tons of heavy cavalry. It's quality, both in book and according to GRRM, is pretty good. Their morale isn't great but that doesn't stop them from stomping Stannis on their way back. Morale doesn't really play a part here because they follow Tywin and his iron grip.

They had help from the Tyrells, The van lead by Garlan made most of the job in BW.

If Stannis took the city and there is no Tyrell army to help the Lannisters would be doomed. 

 

[Arthur Peres]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Tywin does have to marginally worry about Edmure in the back but Edmure and Robb will not bow to Stannis, so how much do they?

Good question.

They priority is to beat the Lannisters, Stannis only comes after it. Robb could have sued for peace with Tywin, getting the hostages he asked before and marching to take the north back, letting Stannis and Tywin kill each other.

Or he could scream "F. you Lannister", behead Jaime, and move against Tywin. I don't see he striking against Stannis first, even more if Stannis has Sansa as hostage.

[Universal Sword Donor]

20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

The siege of Antioch in the first crusade was a nightmare... if you're pointing any other siege please correct me.

The army of the crusaders wasn't big enough to blocked all the gates of the city and the city keep getting supplies. The crusades had to capture the port St Symeon to stop the city to get provisions. Even then the army was closer to starve then the city, they had to put down a good chunk of their own horses to feed themselfs. The defenders were able to constant raid the camps of the Crusaders, many of them deserted and the city only fall due to treason.

I was, but Tywin is operating in much friendlier territory and has friend supply lines nearby (Rosby, Stoke, et al) as well as his stockpiles at HH. In either case I was talking more about the logistics of building points of resistance at a few points on the same side of the river. The biggest issue for the crusaders was the Orontes and traversing it to reinforce points against assault. Tywin can largely operate on the north side of the river since there is only burning kingswood and a closed roseroad on the south side of the blackwater rush.

20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Don't know how this shows a easy task. Tywin's case is worse since the enemy army inside the city is stronger than his.

They had help from the Tyrells, The van lead by Garlan made most of the job in BW.

If Stannis took the city and there is no Tyrell army to help the Lannisters would be doomed. 

Tywin's better supplied and not surrounded by hundreds of thousands of starving people. Also never underestimate the power of the loyalty Tywin instills. Stannis clearly does it too but with a smaller number. Most of Stannis' men are of dubious loyalty and we see it both in quote and during the battle.

Tywin could have done the job just as well as Garlan did. Catching a disorganized, loosely loyal army in the rear isn't an amazing feat. Tywin would not have the advantage of Renly's ghost, however.

[Arthur Peres]

5 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I was, but Tywin is operating in much friendlier territory and has friend supply lines nearby (Rosby, Stoke, et al) as well as his stockpiles at HH. In either case I was talking more about the logistics of building points of resistance at a few points on the same side of the river. The biggest issue for the crusaders was the Orontes and traversing it to reinforce points against assault. Tywin can largely operate on the north side of the river since there is only burning kingswood and a closed roseroad on the south side of the blackwater rush.

Tywin is living of the land that his army is in. If there was enough ressources in the crowlands King's Landing wouldn't be in such dire situation. Rosby, Stokeworth and Bywater fought for the Lannisters in Blackwater, but once Stannis takes the city, Bywater lord is killed, the lady of the Stokeworth becomes his hostage. Also Stannis becomes the favorite to win the war, he is coming from big victories, Tywin on the other hand is taking loss after loss.

The crusades has the logistic support from the bizantines, and were able to get their suplies through the port. Tywin is cut out from the Westerlands because of Robb, he has no navy and he has to forage the Riverlands to get his supplies, even during this he has to concern himself with Beric and the BWB ambushing his men.

I do not belive that Tywin can siege or blocked KL. If he tries this he has to hold his ground and offer Stannis battle.

[SirArthur]

9 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 The crusades has the logistic support from the bizantines, and were able to get their suplies through the port.

Nope. Venetia all along. The first crusade was even lucky to find a venetian wood trader, else it would have failed. 

[Blackfish Tully]

13 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

.Once again, and I cannot emphasize this enough, Stannis has absolutely no money. He can have all the unskilled labor in the world. That's great for helping him get the river cleared of trash and maybe cutting down lumber. He needs skilled craftsman (blacksmiths, masons, carpenters, et al) to rebuild the docks but cannot pay them. The lumber in the Kingswood is on fire. It's so bad the air in the red keep is ashy and smoky. 

Stannis has an huge army in the city and he is a pretty ruthless guy so i'm thinking that he would have a  pretty easy time motivating the blacksmiths , masons , carpenters et al to rebuild the docks and dredge the river , unless you think that any of those men would have the balls to refuse his offer? not to mention it's in the best interest of everybody in the city to get the docks repaired and the shipping going . He could give them promises of future payment but they would be working for him i'm pretty sure . 

13 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Stannis cannot open the roseroad. Only Mace can and he only tightens the roseroad cordon when Stannis marches north from SE. The crownlands doesn't have enough to feed KL or won't feed KL. That's half the reason KL is starving before and when the Tyrells arrive. The logistics for feed an army, let alone that population, are so ridiculously staggering I am kind of surprised this is even sticking as a point. 

If Mace does not join Tywin then why would he not open the roseroad ? he has a ton of food piling up in the Reach that needs to be sold in Kings Landing before it spoils so it would make no sense for him to keep it closed . 

 

13 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

It's Stannis problem insofar as hundreds of thousands of starving desperate people will do what they can to save themselves. Lest you think that's not a problem, let me point at basically any siege in military history where people starve while surrounded by enemies. Or in-universe we can examine what happened when KL was besieged with no food and an army on the way. Or we can look at the riot where KL was in much better condition and still managed to attack nobles, kill KG, and burnt a large portion of the city.

 

It's Stannis's problem to get the docks cleared and the ports reopened and to get the roads opened back up so supplies can get to the city but once that happens it's up to the mecrhants and vendors to get the food to the city and then the people of Kings Landing will buy that food from them . As for gold there must be some in the city or the Iron Throne would not be able to pay their bills and Cersei could not build her warships . 

[Blackfish Tully]

On 8/28/2018 at 4:01 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

Cersei takes that money from repayments to the IB because they have no gold in the treasury. The money used to rebuild the docks was from the Lannisters and Tyrells, or more accurately all those soldiers that slept with prostitutes. Basically none of this gold is available to stannis because he banned prostitution, the HS won't let a blasphemer money, the treasury is empty, and if somehow he did generate the payments to the IB, witholding them just screws him over that much faster.

 

Why wouldn't Stannis withhold payment to the IB ? It's the best and fastest way to get the IB to Kings Landing to negotiate with him. The IB can either acknowledge that Stannis is the King of Westeros and he owes them the gold and he has the authority to negotiate more loans with the IB or they don't acknowledge that he's King and in that case he owes them nothing and can keep all the gold he finds in the treasury even the gold that was earmarked for the IB . 

[Blackfish Tully]

11 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

Tywin could have done the job just as well as Garlan did. Catching a disorganized, loosely loyal army in the rear isn't an amazing feat. Tywin would not have the advantage of Renly's ghost, however.

Tywin also had the advantage of the Tyrell barges that floated his army down the river without which he would have been several days late to help the city not to mention the 50,000 Tyrell soldiers , that probably helped a little bit . 

[Universal Sword Donor]

12 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Tywin is living of the land that his army is in. If there was enough ressources in the crowlands King's Landing wouldn't be in such dire situation. Rosby, Stokeworth and Bywater fought for the Lannisters in Blackwater, but once Stannis takes the city, Bywater lord is killed, the lady of the Stokeworth becomes his hostage. Also Stannis becomes the favorite to win the war, he is coming from big victories, Tywin on the other hand is taking loss after loss.

Bywater is a minor house. Falyse isn't the lady of Stokeworth until Bronn kills the mother. Rosby's have Tommen and those crownland houses don't need to feed KL, merely Tywin's 20K. Tywin is also still in control of HH at this point. 

Tywin's army routed the North on the Green Fork and couldn't pass heavily fortified river crossings with losses that still leave him as powerful as Stannis or near enough to not be a significant margin. More importantly, and I can't keep stressing this enough, Tywin has supplies. Stannis does not and wants to retain control of a starving city of half a million people and has no way to feed them 

12 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

The crusades has the logistic support from the bizantines, and were able to get their suplies through the port. Tywin is cut out from the Westerlands because of Robb, he has no navy and he has to forage the Riverlands to get his supplies, even during this he has to concern himself with Beric and the BWB ambushing his men.

The Byantines abandoned the crusaders before Latakia. They were providing them with neither markets nor supplies viaship.

He has been successfully foraging and retains control of HH as well as has allies in the crownlands. His position is far from hopeless. Not great but it's not hopeless. People really, really don't like Stannis and Stannis can expect no help from Robb nor the Tyrells.

12 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

I do not belive that Tywin can siege or blocked KL. If he tries this he has to hold his ground and offer Stannis battle.

He can hold HH but establishing that loose cordon with fortified camps basically forces a starving army to attack him at excellent defensive spots.