Was KL a poisoned apple for Stannis without the Tyrell's support?

[Universal Sword Donor]

6 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Stannis has an huge army in the city and he is a pretty ruthless guy so i'm thinking that he would have a  pretty easy time motivating the blacksmiths , masons , carpenters et al to rebuild the docks and dredge the river , unless you think that any of those men would have the balls to refuse his offer? not to mention it's in the best interest of everybody in the city to get the docks repaired and the shipping going . He could give them promises of future payment but they would be working for him i'm pretty sure . 

"Do this or I'll kill you" in a starving city. Yeah that will go over like a lead shoes on a drowning man. Now Stannis is a man who punishes wrongdoers but if you think he can pre emptively stop a sack of KL I have a bridge over the trident I can sell you.

6 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

If Mace does not join Tywin then why would he not open the roseroad ? he has a ton of food piling up in the Reach that needs to be sold in Kings Landing before it spoils so it would make no sense for him to keep it closed . 

They can sell it to people with money. People are starving in KL *after* the Tyrells arrive because the prices are so high. 

6 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

It's Stannis's problem to get the docks cleared and the ports reopened and to get the roads opened back up so supplies can get to the city but once that happens it's up to the mecrhants and vendors to get the food to the city and then the people of Kings Landing will buy that food from them . As for gold there must be some in the city or the Iron Throne would not be able to pay their bills and Cersei could not build her warships . 

THERE IS NO FOOD. People living in KL do not have enough money for food. The Iron throne is relying on revenues from a rebuilt dockside and Lannister/Tyrell money. Stannis has neither of those. You can keep typing "he'll be able to do it somehow" but we know he can't. He's already broke (per Davos and Stannis). He doesn't have the money to pay for anything and there's nothing in the treasury (per Tyrion and Ned). He lacks supplies for his large army (Small army into large army who's reinforcements outmarched their supplies, which were kept by the Tyrells). 

If you can't agree on those points, I don't know what to tell you.

[Universal Sword Donor]

6 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Why wouldn't Stannis withhold payment to the IB ? It's the best and fastest way to get the IB to Kings Landing to negotiate with him. The IB can either acknowledge that Stannis is the King of Westeros and he owes them the gold and he has the authority to negotiate more loans with the IB or they don't acknowledge that he's King and in that case he owes them nothing and can keep all the gold he finds in the treasury even the gold that was earmarked for the IB . 

To rebuild the docks you keep insisting is his responsibility to build. And in the meantime if he's trying to negotiate with the IB, his army and KL starve because there is not enough food and nowhere to deposit food that *might* be brought by merchants that the populace cannot afford to purchase. 

There is NO GOLD IN THE TREASURY. Tyrion says this before AND after the BotB. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

6 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Tywin also had the advantage of the Tyrell barges that floated his army down the river without which he would have been several days late to help the city not to mention the 50,000 Tyrell soldiers , that probably helped a little bit . 

That may well be the case. GRRM isn't great with timing, and it looks like he is closer to Stoney Sept than HH. We also don't know how Mace acquired those barges. He clearly didn't float them from Bitterbridge. I'm guessing he made them at Tumbler Falls or bought them, similar to how Stannis makes rafts at Blackwater Rush

[Blackfish Tully]

33 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

"Do this or I'll kill you" in a starving city. Yeah that will go over like a lead shoes on a drowning man. Now Stannis is a man who punishes wrongdoers but if you think he can pre emptively stop a sack of KL I have a bridge over the trident I can sell you.

T

how about "do this or you'll starve" , that should work or do you think the blacksmiths , masons , carpenters et al aren't smart enough to understand that repairing the docks and dredging the Blackwater is in their best interest .  Not to mention that Stannis also has a 15 to 20 thousand man army to  help with the repairs so I would think he would be able to get it done pretty quickly . 

 

36 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

THERE IS NO FOOD. People living in KL do not have enough money for food.

where are you getting this information from ? How do you know that the people living in Kings Landing have no money? what were they using to buy food before the Tyrells closed the roseroad ?  I doubt the Iron Throne is paying for the food for 500,000 people , how does the economy work if the people have no money ? 

 

38 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

To rebuild the docks you keep insisting is his responsibility to build. And in the meantime if he's trying to negotiate with the IB, his army and KL starve because there is not enough food and nowhere to deposit food that *might* be brought by merchants that the populace cannot afford to purchase. 

There is NO GOLD IN THE TREASURY. Tyrion says this before AND after the BotB. 

 500,000 people is a pretty large city so there must be a pretty sophisticated economy to support and feed that many people , there would be hundreds of merchants and vendors and brokers whose job it would be to get food to the city and sold to the people . It would be no different then if a hurricane  hit a large american city . The government (local and federal )would be responsible for reopening the roads and repairing any damages that keep supplies form entering the city but the grocery stores and restaurants would be the ones who would be working on restocking their shelves and resupplying the restaurants so they can start feeding people again , it would imagine it's the same in Kings Landing , Stannis opens the ports and opens the roads and the supplies will come flooding back in as the merchants and vendors resupply their  wares . 

[Universal Sword Donor]

28 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

how about "do this or you'll starve" , that should work or do you think the blacksmiths , masons , carpenters et al aren't smart enough to understand that repairing the docks and dredging the Blackwater is in their best interest .  Not to mention that Stannis also has a 15 to 20 thousand man army to  help with the repairs so I would think he would be able to get it done pretty quickly . 

Even if they do it, they starve. 

28 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

where are you getting this information from ? How do you know that the people living in Kings Landing have no money? what were they using to buy food before the Tyrells closed the roseroad ?  I doubt the Iron Throne is paying for the food for 500,000 people , how does the economy work if the people have no money ? 

I quoted it earlier. It's in the Tyrion chapter. Even after food is brought in by the Tyrells, prices are higher than ever according to Tyrion. Beforehand people are rioting outside the red keep to protest Tyrek's wedding feast. Kingslanding is starving. It's not necessarily that they lack coin, it's the coin they have is insufficient to buy the food they want. BArely any food is coming into the capital.

28 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 500,000 people is a pretty large city so there must be a pretty sophisticated economy to support and feed that many people , there would be hundreds of merchants and vendors and brokers whose job it would be to get food to the city and sold to the people .

There is a pretty sophisticated economy. However any city that large relies on external sources to feed it, like Rome relied on Egypt to provide grain to its million inhabitants. Tyrion does everything short of stop the fortification of the city to feed them and still its failing:

He had done all he could to feed the hungry city—he'd set several hundred carpenters to building fishing boats in place of catapults, opened the kingswood to any hunter who dared to cross the river, even sent gold cloaks foraging to the west and south—yet he still saw accusing eyes everywhere he rode. 

No crops are coming in. No fishermen are working. Merchants are not bringing in enough food to the still intact docks. Now imagine the kingswood is on fire, you can't fish because you cannot leave the harbor, merchants cannot dock, and the gold cloaks you used to forage are deserted or dead. That's what Tyrion faces after the battle until the Tyrell supplies show up. Stannis is even worse off because his reinforcements don't have food for the city or himself and he's surrounded by hostile garrisons.

 

[Blackfish Tully]

10 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Even if they do it, they starve. 

I quoted it earlier. It's in the Tyrion chapter. Even after food is brought in by the Tyrells, prices are higher than ever according to Tyrion. Beforehand people are rioting outside the red keep to protest Tyrek's wedding feast. Kingslanding is starving. It's not necessarily that they lack coin, it's the coin they have is insufficient to buy the food they want. BArely any food is coming into the capital.

 

maybe some will but once they have the docks rebuilt and the Blackwater dredged they will be able to get supplies to the city not to mention any supplies they can get from the Stormlands and the Nrrrow Sea plus supplies from the Crownlands and anything they can get from the Reach . You act like there are no options but there are plenty of places to get supplies from and it's just a matter of opening up the supply lines . 

[Universal Sword Donor]

12 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

maybe some will but once they have the docks rebuilt and the Blackwater dredged they will be able to get supplies to the city not to mention any supplies they can get from the Stormlands and the Nrrrow Sea plus supplies from the Crownlands and anything they can get from the Reach . You act like there are no options but there are plenty of places to get supplies from and it's just a matter of opening up the supply lines . 

There are a few places to get supplies from, and those places cannot supply a city as large as KL and the people of kings landing will have to wait at least a month for the docks to get built. If there is one thing GRRM has shown in this fantasy world, it's that people will die of starvation or cold. There is not always enough food available nor can it always be delivered in a timely fashion. 

[Blackfish Tully]

12 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

There is a pretty sophisticated economy. However any city that large relies on external sources to feed it, like Rome relied on Egypt to provide grain to its million inhabitants. Tyrion does everything short of stop the fortification of the city to feed them and still its failing:

He had done all he could to feed the hungry city—he'd set several hundred carpenters to building fishing boats in place of catapults, opened the kingswood to any hunter who dared to cross the river, even sent gold cloaks foraging to the west and south—yet he still saw accusing eyes everywhere he rode. 

No crops are coming in. No fishermen are working. Merchants are not bringing in enough food to the still intact docks. Now imagine the kingswood is on fire, you can't fish because you cannot leave the harbor, merchants cannot dock, and the gold cloaks you used to forage are deserted or dead. That's what Tyrion faces after the battle until the Tyrell supplies show up. Stannis is even worse off because his reinforcements don't have food for the city or himself and he's surrounded by hostile garrisons.

 

You are just assuming that Stannis would be surrounded by hostile garrisons but will that really be the case ? Losing the city would be a huge blow for Tywin not to mention he also has an enemy army that  invaded and is occupying the Westerlands so why would these cities so close to Kings Landing still support Tywin when he has lost so many battles and does not even have the resources of his own kingdom ? Tywin only has 20,000 soldiers left and he's in hostile territory so him laying siege to Kings Landing is a joke , he would be have to stretch his lines pretty thin to do an effective siege and the fact that Stannis has 15 to 20 K of soldiers in Kings Landing plus the 20 K or so that Robb could have between the northmen and the riverman would mean that he would be massively out numbered and trapped between two armies. Losing Kings Landing would be a massive event in the war and would  cause each Lord to rethink their loyalties.. If Rosby  and/or Stokeworth bend the knee that would change a great deal plus there must be other places to land supplies near Kings Landing that they could use to resupply the city until the docks are rebuilt . 

[Blackfish Tully]

1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

There are a few places to get supplies from, and those places cannot supply a city as large as KL and the people of kings landing will have to wait at least a month for the docks to get built. If there is one thing GRRM has shown in this fantasy world, it's that people will die of starvation or cold. There is not always enough food available nor can it always be delivered in a timely fashion. 

people starving to death is the sad consequence of warfare sometimes , the War of the Five Kings will have killed  a great many people before it's over and most of them probably from starvation but that does not mean that Stannis and his soldiers would not be able to survive in Kings Landing , he does have resources to bring to the city and his men would work night and day to open up the docks and secure the roads , if we have seen one thing from Stannis is that he has an iron will and he will make it work if anyone can if not he will starve in the city but there zero chance he would give up once he's inside the Red Keep . 

[Universal Sword Donor]

15 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

people starving to death is the sad consequence of warfare sometimes , the War of the Five Kings will have killed  a great many people before it's over and most of them probably from starvation but that does not mean that Stannis and his soldiers would not be able to survive in Kings Landing , he does have resources to bring to the city and his men would work night and day to open up the docks and secure the roads , if we have seen one thing from Stannis is that he has an iron will and he will make it work if anyone can if not he will starve in the city but there zero chance he would give up once he's inside the Red Keep . 

I'm saying there will be giant riots of starving people because Stannis' men are wont to take their money and any food left during the inevitable sack AND the city has already had two riots in the Wo5K when they had significantly more food. They had a riot that overthrew the monarchy during Dance of the Dragons. Stannis' situation is damn precarious if he stays at KL, which he more or less has to do to seize legitimacy. 

The aftermath of that invasion would be awful and probably just about worse case scenario for everyoen in the Wo5K

[Universal Sword Donor]

25 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

You are just assuming that Stannis would be surrounded by hostile garrisons but will that really be the case ? Losing the city would be a huge blow for Tywin not to mention he also has an enemy army that  invaded and is occupying the Westerlands so why would these cities so close to Kings Landing still support Tywin when he has lost so many battles and does not even have the resources of his own kingdom ? Tywin only has 20,000 soldiers left and he's in hostile territory so him laying siege to Kings Landing is a joke , he would be have to stretch his lines pretty thin to do an effective siege and the fact that Stannis has 15 to 20 K of soldiers in Kings Landing plus the 20 K or so that Robb could have between the northmen and the riverman would mean that he would be massively out numbered and trapped between two armies. Losing Kings Landing would be a massive event in the war and would  cause each Lord to rethink their loyalties.. If Rosby  and/or Stokeworth bend the knee that would change a great deal plus there must be other places to land supplies near Kings Landing that they could use to resupply the city until the docks are rebuilt . 

I am not assuming. I know he would be. Tommen is still alive and the crownlands allied themselves with the Lannisters. Losing the city is a huge blow but people also remember the reynes and Castermeres. Tywin is in the Riverlands. Do the crownlands supporters back Stannis and risked losing everything or do they stay allied to the man whose grandsons sit on the IT? Stannis' reputation is in tatters in the eyes of the smallfolk and the nobility. 

Stannis won't ally with Robb. He says it outright:

"A green boy," said Stannis, "and another false king. Am I to accept a broken realm?"

"Surely half a kingdom is better than none," Cressen said, "and if you help the boy avenge his father's murder—"

"Why should I avenge Eddard Stark? The man was nothing to me. 

 

Stannis nodded. "The Starks seek to steal half my kingdom, even as the Lannisters have stolen my throne and my own sweet brother the swords and service and strongholds that are mine by rights. They are all usurpers, and they are all my enemies."

 

Lady Selyse gave him a measured look. "And what will you tell him, Maester? How he might win half a kingdom if he goes to the Starks on his knees and sells our daughter to Lysa Arryn?"

"I have heard your counsel, Cressen," Lord Stannis said. "Now I will hear hers. You are dismissed."

Tywin has much to fear from Robb and his allies but Robb and Stannis are enemies. Tywin has HH. His opposition is scattered and to his rear. It's a clear march through the RL back to HH and then onto KL. 

Rosby and Stokeworth could change hands but Rosby is currently held by a garrison of Goldcloaks loyal to the Lannisters. Stokeworth is not like to ally themselves to Stannis since they opposed him on the BW. Since the lady of Stokeworth is currently in attendance at her own castle, I doubt they'd do anything. Either way, Rosby and Stokeworth have enough food to keep the castle fed but not much more. Elsewise Tyrion would have brought in food from Rosby to help feed the capital.

[Arthur Peres]

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Tywin has much to fear from Robb and his allies but Robb and Stannis are enemies. Tywin has HH. His opposition is scattered and to his rear. It's a clear march through the RL back to HH and then onto KL. 

The topic do not let clear the reason for Tywin be late to save KL.

In your way to see the events are you considering Roose capturing Harenhall after Tywin leave the castle?

[Blackfish Tully]

14 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I am not assuming. I know he would be. Tommen is still alive and the crownlands allied themselves with the Lannisters. Losing the city is a huge blow but people also remember the reynes and Castermeres. Tywin is in the Riverlands. Do the crownlands supporters back Stannis and risked losing everything or do they stay allied to the man whose grandsons sit on the IT? Stannis' reputation is in tatters in the eyes of the smallfolk and the nobility. 

 

The Crownlands are allied with the Lannisters up to the Battle of Blackwater but if Stannis takes the city everything is up in the air . Tywin has already had 2 armies crushed and the Westerlands have been invaded and occupied by a foreign army and now he has lost Kings Landing so everybody who is allied to him has to rethink their position . The Crownlands  bending the knee to Stannis at this point would put them in his good graces but the longer they wait and the worst it would get for them . 

 

14 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

."

Tywin has much to fear from Robb and his allies but Robb and Stannis are enemies. Tywin has HH. His opposition is scattered and to his rear. It's a clear march through the RL back to HH and then onto KL. 

 

Robb and Stannis are not allies but they certainly are not enemies especially when it comes to fighting Tywin Lannister , i'm pretty sure they would be able to put any differences aside to fight Tywin. Once Tywin left Harrenhall it was occupied by Roose Bolton so Tywin would be marching his army through enemy territory with no safe haven to lay siege to a city he cannot take and would put himself in between Stannis and Robb , not a good place to be . He would probably be better off not worrying about the Iron Throne and instead try to save the Westerlands . 

 

14 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

. 

Rosby and Stokeworth could change hands but Rosby is currently held by a garrison of Goldcloaks loyal to the Lannisters. Stokeworth is not like to ally themselves to Stannis since they opposed him on the BW. Since the lady of Stokeworth is currently in attendance at her own castle, I doubt they'd do anything. Either way, Rosby and Stokeworth have enough food to keep the castle fed but not much more. Elsewise Tyrion would have brought in food from Rosby to help feed the capital.

you mean the same Goldcloaks who abandoned the Mud Gate and murdered their commander ? I would not trust their loyalty to the Lannisters one bit , the people of Kings Landing would not have forgotten when the Lannisters sacked Kings Landing 20 years ago so the loyalty will only go so far. If Stannis gets the Crownlands to bend the knee it would be a huge boost for him in so many ways and the fact that he is on the Iron Throne would give him a great deal of advantage on getting their loyalty . Will they pick Tywin Lannister who has lost several battles and does not even have control of his own kingdom and has no allies and is surrounded by enemies and just lost Kings Landing  or will they pick Stannis who just won the Battle of Blackwater , it seems to be a pretty  easy choice . 

As for the starving people of Kings Landing they are probably screwed either way , if Tywin retakes the city would he be able to feed them any better than Stannis could ? 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Without foodstuff from the Reach to feed the population it would be a poisoned apple for anybody .

[Legitimate_Bastard]

On 8/20/2018 at 6:33 AM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

As in if he did suceed in invading it would he suffer more than he'd profit from  taking it? 

I think he would have strengthened his overall position, but with the Lannister-Tyrell alliance already a thing IDK how much difference it would have made. Maybe with access to all that wildfire he could have made something happen? 

[thi4f]

I'll just reiterate what others said here. Everything depends on:

- how Stannis deals with the situation immediately after siege:

1. who will be spared in the court (out of Lannisters/fake Baratheons and Small Council)?
2. will he grant any amnesties?
3. what alliances can he get?
4. what will he do with remaining resources?
5. is he able to use his superior naval forces to his advantage?

- how other major powers in Westeros would answer to Stannis' rise:

1. will Northmen/Rivermen attack with tempo to get all advantages?
2. what will they target?
3. will Tywin lay siege immediately or decide to regroup his forces?
4. will Tyrell-Lannister alliance uphold? (in my opinion, very poor chances)
5. will Mace Tyrell bend the knee/try to make peace with new king?
6. will other powers respond to new circumstances (Arryn, Martell)?

- what GRRM really wants to achieve here:

1. if he wants Stannis to hold the Iron Throne, the trade with Free Cities will flourish, Braavos comes with financial support, food is abundant, the Reach immediately bends the knee, other realms make peace with Stannis,
2. if he wants to get rid of Stannis:

• Tyrells stay loyal to Lannisters and lay siege,
• someone blows up food warehouses in KL with remaining wildfire,
• Joffrey loyalists assassinate Stannis,
• Lysa Arryn and Baelish, out of fear of Lannisters, send their forces in a week to support Tywin (distances? heh),
• fAegon invades a year early,
• Daenerys has a dream and comes with dragons,
• anything else.

 

I mean, we don't have enough info at the moment to prove one way or another, despite Universal Sword Donor's resources expertise and other fan fiction.

Plus, if Stannis was meant get the Iron Throne in 299 AC, Tyrell-Lannister forces would NEVER show up in time to defend King's Landing.