Will Tyrion'sAdvice work for FAegon?

[Chris Mormont]

In Dance, Tyrion suggests a different course of action to Aegon: head to Westeros instead of going east, land in Dorne and take advantage of all the problems caused by the War of the Five Kings.  He tells Aegon that he doesn't need to conquer the 7 Ks only start winning battles.  Word will get back to Dany and she will come to him and they will then be equals.

While Tyrion may not have been sincere, this actually seems to be a good plan.  Showing up on Dany's doorstep claiming to be her nephew may not illicit the response Jon Con may have hoped for (see Quentyn), this not only seems like a good way to win Dany, but it also seems like a good way to win any Targaryen supporters.  If Dany spurs him, or leaves for Westeros before he gets to Mereen, then his claim is significantly diminished and he would need to battle Dany eventually.  

[Tagganaro]

1 hour ago, Chris Mormont said:

In Dance, Tyrion suggests a different course of action to Aegon: head to Westeros instead of going east, land in Dorne and take advantage of all the problems caused by the War of the Five Kings.  He tells Aegon that he doesn't need to conquer the 7 Ks only start winning battles.  Word will get back to Dany and she will come to him and they will then be equals.

While Tyrion may not have been sincere, this actually seems to be a good plan.  Showing up on Dany's doorstep claiming to be her nephew may not illicit the response Jon Con may have hoped for (see Quentyn), this not only seems like a good way to win Dany, but it also seems like a good way to win any Targaryen supporters.  If Dany spurs him, or leaves for Westeros before he gets to Mereen, then his claim is significantly diminished and he would need to battle Dany eventually.  

My guess is no it won't work.  I view how that very same game of Cyvasse where Tyrion told Faegon to go West as very prophetic- Faegon loses because he doesn't have dragons on the field.  

[The Sleeper]

Apart from symbolism, it won't work because Aegon simply doesn't have the power base to pull something like this off. 

[Starkz]

2 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

Apart from symbolism, it won't work because Aegon simply doesn't have the power base to pull something like this off. 

With Dornes support?

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, Chris Mormont said:

In Dance, Tyrion suggests a different course of action to Aegon: head to Westeros instead of going east, land in Dorne and take advantage of all the problems caused by the War of the Five Kings.  He tells Aegon that he doesn't need to conquer the 7 Ks only start winning battles.  Word will get back to Dany and she will come to him and they will then be equals.

While Tyrion may not have been sincere, this actually seems to be a good plan.  Showing up on Dany's doorstep claiming to be her nephew may not illicit the response Jon Con may have hoped for (see Quentyn), this not only seems like a good way to win Dany, but it also seems like a good way to win any Targaryen supporters.  If Dany spurs him, or leaves for Westeros before he gets to Mereen, then his claim is significantly diminished and he would need to battle Dany eventually.  

The best laid plans of mice and dwarves...

There is nothing inherently wrong with the idea of winning battles in Westeros to gain a backing first and then approaching Dany, and with Joncon and co having already pulled together a smattering of storm houses and drawing the interest of Dorne it just might work up to that point.

But the allegiance of Highgarden is iffy at best, especially if he already has Dorne in his pocket, and it might be quite the while before Dany even shows up in Westeros, since she first has to make her way back to Merreen and then sail halfway around the world. By then, we may see a resurgent House Lannister backed by Highgarden, Riverrun and possibly the Vale, plus maybe some northern reinforcements depending on how the Boltons fare against Stannis. Or, the church could be running things with the Faith Militant in its corner.

So there are dozens of things that can go wrong with this plan. Heck, they're already off on a bad foot because they don't even know where half of their flotilla is. But in the end, I think it was a better plan that simply approaching Dany as just another bunch of supplicants, and that's even if they could get through the Yunkish siege to get to her.

 

[chrisdaw]

Yes it will work as far as him storming Westeros and taking the throne from the Lannisters. He'll do that rapidly and easily and will be well on the way to consolidation too before Dany turns up.

Where it falls down is that he did this instead of teaming up with Dany, and the alliances he forms will leave no room for Dany, and the two will end up going to war and Aegon will lose.

[honorable men]

the mummer's dragon 

[Makk]

The advice he gave was good, but Aegon only listened to the first part (as Tyrion knew he would). He ignored the part about keeping his dragon close.

[Ckram]

If the plan is to be rescued by Daenerys, invading Westeros without dragons on the eve of the Long Night was surely a good move.

But it was a purposely doomed scenario that pushed them to the Stormlands. Tyrion's advice was the spark, Connington's grayscale the checkmate. Were Connington healthy, he surely would have discouraged Aegon.

[The Sleeper]

14 hours ago, Starkz said:

With Dornes support?

Yup. He has 10k from the GC and another 10k Dorne. Assuming he gets them. They are not enough to conquer the seven kingdoms let alone pacify or hold them. 

[Megorova]

15 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So there are dozens of things that can go wrong with this plan. Heck, they're already off on a bad foot because they don't even know where half of their flotilla is.

Maybe they are not lost. It seems very unlikely, that members of Golden Company got lost. Half of their people can't be so stupid and inexperienced, that they got lost in the sea. It's not like this is the first time, that they went to Westeros, or had to sail far away, to the place where they participated in one of their previous wars. So my guess is, that what actually happened, is that the other half of Golden Company has a different mission, they got different orders from either Illyrio or Varys, and the other half, those that are with JonCon and fAegon actually know where they comrades went.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Yes. 

[btfu806]

I think it works in the sense that he starts getting seriously noticed in Westeros. Might even get the crown for a bit. Dany I think will see it as a threat and fight him.

[Chris Mormont]

19 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

Where it falls down is that he did this instead of teaming up with Dany, and the alliances he forms will leave no room for Dany, and the two will end up going to war and Aegon will lose.

Dany believes the Iron Throne is hers by right as the last Targaryen but if FAegon is who he says he is, not only is she not alone, but she is behind him under the rules of succession.  So then the question becomes, what is more important to Dany, her power and her becoming Queen, or the reestablishment of Targaryen power and rule?  Would she defer the throne to him and aid him in keeping it?

[John Suburbs]

5 hours ago, Megorova said:

Maybe they are not lost. It seems very unlikely, that members of Golden Company got lost. Half of their people can't be so stupid and inexperienced, that they got lost in the sea. It's not like this is the first time, that they went to Westeros, or had to sail far away, to the place where they participated in one of their previous wars. So my guess is, that what actually happened, is that the other half of Golden Company has a different mission, they got different orders from either Illyrio or Varys, and the other half, those that are with JonCon and fAegon actually know where they comrades went.

Interesting thought. But as I recall, the fleet got wracked by a storm somewhere off of Cape Wrath, so it is just as likely that they are at the bottom of the ocean. I can't really see the point of splitting up an already relatively skimpy invasion force, but I suppose it's possible.

[Chris Mormont]

I feel this is FAegon's best chance to become king.  Even if FAegon arrives in Merreen with the Golden Company and Dany is still there, there is no guaranteeing that Dany will believe he is who he claims, especially since that would mean she would be abdicating the throne. 

[Guest]

Pretty shitty advice Tyrion gave in my opinion. It seemed completely out of spite and petty hated towards the Seven Kingdoms and just a way for him to propose something that would hurt Cersei regardless of the consequences. Even Tyrion was surprised when he heard they were actually going west, so he probably wasn't putting to much thought into the conversation and wasn't being sincere.

Why I think this plan is awful: Randyl Tarly and Mace Tyrell had the right of it in ADWD's epilogue. Jon Connington is just an exiled loser, the Golden Company has always failed in Westeros, and there is no way to prove that Aegon is real. Jon seems to be banking on lords flocking to him, but any lord would have to be an idiot to get behind him. They've been ravaging the Stormlands and the Reach are firm backers of the Iron Throne. I don't see why any Dornishmen would want to join him either. they, of all people will remember the War of the Ninepenny Kings, and should still have a hatred for the Golden Company because of who they once supported. 

[Starkz]

7 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Yup. He has 10k from the GC and another 10k Dorne. Assuming he gets them. They are not enough to conquer the seven kingdoms let alone pacify or hold them. 

7K isn’t exactly united right now and with smart/good commanders they can get pretty far.

[Lost Melnibonean]

43 minutes ago, Chris Mormont said:

Dany believes the Iron Throne is hers by right as the last Targaryen but if FAegon is who he says he is, not only is she not alone, but she is behind him under the rules of succession.  So then the question becomes, what is more important to Dany, her power and her becoming Queen, or the reestablishment of Targaryen power and rule?  Would she defer the throne to him and aid him in keeping it?

Not necessarily... Aerys named Viserys heir before the sack of King's Landing, and Daenerys, not the presumed Aegon, is Viserys's heir, unless royal succession must pass to the first male heir. 

[Megorova]

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Interesting thought. But as I recall, the fleet got wracked by a storm somewhere off of Cape Wrath, so it is just as likely that they are at the bottom of the ocean. I can't really see the point of splitting up an already relatively skimpy invasion force, but I suppose it's possible.

They have 10000 warriors, so split in half that will be 5K and 5K. JonCon's 5K managed to seize Griffin's Roost, Storm's End, and other castles of Stormlands. Basically those 5K took 1 of 7Ks under their control. So it's possible, that the other 5K will also manage to take over one of other 7Ks. The thing is, after Renly's death, the War of Five Kings, and Stannis taking remainders of his forces to The North, there was nearly no one left to guard Stormlands. So what other Kingdom out of 7K is also in similar situation? -> Westerlands.

Majority of their forces participated in Wof5K, now their remnants are devided between Jaime at Riverrun and Kevan (RIP) at King's Landing. So it would be quite easy for 5K of Golden Company to seize Casterly Rock, Lannisport, and Westerlands, long before scattered Lannister troops will realise, that their lands were ambushed. Their attention was divided between what was happening at Stormlands, that were attacked by unknown invader; at Riverrun between Freys, Blackfish and Lannisters; at The North between Starks and Boltons; and in The Reach between Highgardens and Euron. No one was watching Westerlands. So it would have been easy to seize them.

Furthermore it's a good strategic move to seize Westerlands, that way they will easily establish their control over bottom half of Westeros - Westerlands, The Reach, Dorne, Stormlands. They can seize Stormlands and Westerlands, and then thru negotiations and arranged marriages to get The Reach and Dorne into their flock. It seems to me, that they are planning to marry Arianne Martell to Jon Connington, and fAegon to Margaery Tyrell. I think, that it was always in Varys' plans to save Margaery and The Reach for fAegon. First she got married with gay guy, then her second husband was killed on her wedding day, then she got married to a boy, that is too young yet, to consummate their marriage, so she still can get married with someone else. Though Littlefinger added his own elements into Varys' original plan. Elements like Sparrows, Margaery's imprisonment, taking Sansa away from King's Landing, etc.

(Probably LF is aiming to marry fAegon to Sansa, and become fAegon's Hand instead of Varys. He will give to Golden Company the key to three Kingdoms - The North, Riverlands and The Vale - Sansa, and will aid them on battlefield with his Knights of The Vale. So he can offer to fAegon upper half of Westeros, and support of the Warden of the East, while Varys will offer to fAegon the lower half of Westeros, and support of the Warden of the West (because now Varys has Tyrion on his side. And Tyrion is Tywin's heir. Jaime is in Kingsguards, so he can't inherite, and Tyrion as a man, has a higher claim than Cersei's. So now he is the Warden of the West). It's obvious which offer will be more appealing to fAegon. Sansa is still a virgin, and LF knows about it, that's why, when she was in his castle, he ordered one of Kettleblacks to protect her, not to spoil the goods. And Margaery is not a virgin, or at least her reputation was severally soiled by the Sparrows. Virginal Sansa, with three Kingdoms as her dowry VS whore Margaery, that has already married three times, and can offer only The Reach as her dowry. It's Sansa's win.)

If fAegon will marry with Margaery, then Golden Company will have support of The Reach. And thru marriage with Arianne they will get Dorne. There's no way to get in the similar manner to Westerlands, so the only option is to seize them, the same way they did with Stormlands. So I think, that the other 5K were doing just that - battling in the west, while fAegon is taking over southern east of Westeros. This option seems more likely, that them just getting lost or wrecked.