Heresy 213 Death aint what it used to be

[SirArthur]

Obviously the Wall and the Watch was before Danny Flint. 

[Tucu]

10 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

So now we are back to my favorite chicken and egg problem.  Did the Wall, Watch, White Walkers or Long Night happen first?  Lots of theories like about Dany Flint being the source of the White Walkers, but why the Watch and Wall without the Walkers?  The Night King Story  in the books has the same problem. 

First the Long Night, then the WWs as a tool to survive it and probably the original NW. The Wall after the Long Night ended. These are the first references to watchers in the books:

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Behind him, to right, to left, all around him, the watchers stood patient, faceless, silent, the shifting patterns of their delicate armor making them all but invisible in the wood. Yet they made no move to interfere.

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The watchers moved forward together, as if some signal had been given. Swords rose and fell, all in a deathly silence. It was cold butchery. The pale blades sliced through ringmail as if it were silk. Will closed his eyes. Far beneath him, he heard their voices and laughter sharp as icicles.

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All day, Will had felt as though something were watching him, something cold and implacable that loved him not. Gared had felt it too

The Watcher chapter makes a nice reading when looking for hints about the WW and the NW.

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He watched the Sand Snakes, each at a different table. He watched the lords and ladies, the serving men, the old blind seneschal, and the young maester Myles, with his silky beard and servile smile. Standing half in light and half in shadow, he saw all of them. Serve. Protect. Obey. That was his task.

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“That is not for me to say, my prince.” Serve. Protect. Obey. Simple vows for simple men. That was all he knew.

 

[Guest]

I've read the book multiple times since 2004, but some heresies that I've started to believe since around Season 6:

-The magic in the story is genre window dressing. The story is mainly about power which can be explored in any genre. This could be a story about the development and control of the atom bomb, and the outcome would be the same. A major theme in the story is, when you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. The game board still matters and politics won't be set aside just because there's a magical apocalyptic threat.  

- The story is leading toward Dance 2.0, Dany vs. Jon and the Starks, with the Lannisters caught in the middle. 

- Ice and Fire are two threats facing Westeros. GRRM borrowed the "fire=good" mislead from the Erebor prophecy in the Hobbit. A major theme of the series that gets overlooked relates to the backstory of Robert Frost and his research among scientists on how the world will end. 

- The three heads of the dragon is a conflict between Dany, Tyrion, and Jon - people who have good intentions but very different ways of realizing it. They will attempt to kill each other to see those visions realized.

- The Starks are the primary heroes of the story in a world full of crazy people.

- Another theme in the story relates back to the game of politics itself, and the balance between ideals vs. realpolitik. 

- Jon will use Daenerys for her dragons and pretend to be romantically interested in her, but he is not.

- Jon will be punished for that. Dany will burn Winterfell. He attempts to save his home from Ice, but it gets destroyed by Fire. Tragically ironic twists like this are what I LIVE FOR. 

 

[Janneyc1]

On 10/17/2018 at 1:22 AM, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

I've read the book multiple times since 2004, but some heresies that I've started to believe since around Season 6:

-The magic in the story is genre window dressing. The story is mainly about power which can be explored in any genre. This could be a story about the development and control of the atom bomb, and the outcome would be the same. A major theme in the story is, when you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. The game board still matters and politics won't be set aside just because there's a magical apocalyptic threat.  

- The story is leading toward Dance 2.0, Dany vs. Jon and the Starks, with the Lannisters caught in the middle. 

- Ice and Fire are two threats facing Westeros. GRRM borrowed the "fire=good" mislead from the Erebor prophecy in the Hobbit. A major theme of the series that gets overlooked relates to the backstory of Robert Frost and his research among scientists on how the world will end. 

- The three heads of the dragon is a conflict between Dany, Tyrion, and Jon - people who have good intentions but very different ways of realizing it. They will attempt to kill each other to see those visions realized.

- The Starks are the primary heroes of the story in a world full of crazy people.

- Another theme in the story relates back to the game of politics itself, and the balance between ideals vs. realpolitik. 

- Jon will use Daenerys for her dragons and pretend to be romantically interested in her, but he is not.

- Jon will be punished for that. Dany will burn Winterfell. He attempts to save his home from Ice, but it gets destroyed by Fire. Tragically ironic twists like this are what I LIVE FOR. 

 

Yeah I think you are on to a few things here. I disagree with Dany burning Winterfell, but other than that I agree. 

[SirArthur]

Is the wheel of time discussion still on ? Because I think, although I do not believe in the idea, that Maggy's prophecy to Cersei is such a moment. We all know it, anyway the quote:

Anger flashed across the child's face. "If she tries I will have my brother kill her." Even then she would not stop, willful child as she was. She still had one more question due her, one more glimpse into her life to come. "Will the king and I have children?" she asked.

"Oh, aye. Six-and-ten for him, and three for you." 

That made no sense to Cersei. Her thumb was throbbing where she'd cut it, and her blood was dripping on the carpet. How could that be? she wanted to ask, but she was done with her questions.

The old woman was not done with her, however. "Gold shall be their crowns and gold their shrouds," she said. "And when your tears have drowned you, the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you."

 

What do I mean ? This is a glimpse in a possible future and in this future Robert has 16 and Cersei 3. So far so standard. (Although the dripping blood is a commonly overlooked part of the scene). 

The real question (which most people answer with "Cersei's") is, whos crowns and shrouds shall be gold(en). So first we get a cryptic answer with a clear distinction between Cersei and Robert and then asap most people assume it must be Cersei`s children this time. However that was not the question. The question was, if the king and Cersei will have children. So the answer is either Robert's and Cersei's children all together or ... and this is the fun part ... the possible children between Robert and Cersei in this "life to come". Which are none. 

But this could be a glimpse in another future. So Cersei will not cry because of the golden shrouds of Tommen and Myrcella, Cersei will have a vision like Dany had. A vision of the children she could have had with Robert. 

[Brad Stark]

It seems improbable Myrcella will get a golden crown, even if the book follows a completely different path than the show.  I don't see Cersei giving up power, especially to Myrcella arriving with Dornish allies with plans.  And while Cersei could die first, that doesn't fit with the "And when your tears have drowned you, the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you.".

So either the prophesy is wrong or Myrcella somehow gets crowned with Cersei still alive.

[Janneyc1]

On 10/22/2018 at 6:16 PM, Brad Stark said:

It seems improbable Myrcella will get a golden crown, even if the book follows a completely different path than the show.  I don't see Cersei giving up power, especially to Myrcella arriving with Dornish allies with plans.  And while Cersei could die first, that doesn't fit with the "And when your tears have drowned you, the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you.".

So either the prophesy is wrong or Myrcella somehow gets crowned with Cersei still alive.

I don't have evidence, but I have a gut feeling, that Doran will end up crowning Myrcella. I could see Arianne not following his wishes or (f)Aegon makes a deal and then betrays it. Then Doran reinstates Dornish as it's on kingdom. 

[Melifeather]

15 hours ago, Janneyc1 said:

I don't have evidence, but I have a gut feeling, that Doran will end up crowning Myrcella. I could see Arianne not following his wishes or (f)Aegon makes a deal and then betrays it. Then Doran reinstates Dornish as it's on kingdom. 

Doran stopped Arianne from crowning Myrcella, so pretty sure that’s not going to happen. No, IMO Tommen will die, and then Cersei will make sure Myrcella is crowned. She may even keep the marriage pact with Trystane so that Dorne supports her.

[Brad Stark]

While I can see Dorne declaring independence and crowning a leader, I can't see Myrcella being their choice.  Doran stopped Arianne from crowning Myrcella queen of the Seven Kingdoms, not Queen of Dorne. 

Ultimately, I don't see support for Myrcella in Dorne or King's Landing because either side will be suspicious of her working with the other side.  The only way this works is Cersei crowning her as a figurehead only, like Cersei did with Tommen.  However Myrcella is older and has been outside Cersei's influence for some time, so it is less likely. 

[Melifeather]

35 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

While I can see Dorne declaring independence and crowning a leader, I can't see Myrcella being their choice.  Doran stopped Arianne from crowning Myrcella queen of the Seven Kingdoms, not Queen of Dorne. 

Ultimately, I don't see support for Myrcella in Dorne or King's Landing because either side will be suspicious of her working with the other side.  The only way this works is Cersei crowning her as a figurehead only, like Cersei did with Tommen.  However Myrcella is older and has been outside Cersei's influence for some time, so it is less likely. 

If she kept to the marriage alliance, Tristane would be king or king consort, and any children would be in direct succession to the Iron Throne. Why wouldn’t Doran support that?

[SirArthur]

I don't see Myrcella or Cersei going anywhere crowned, because it would Tywin look like a bad adviser, when it comes to woman's inheritage rules to the throne of the seven kingdoms. 

They would need another crown. 

[Melifeather]

58 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

I don't see Myrcella or Cersei going anywhere crowned, because it would Tywin look like a bad adviser, when it comes to woman's inheritage rules to the throne of the seven kingdoms. 

They would need another crown. 

Who is left to stop Cersei? Tywin? Dead. Kevan? Dead. Pycelle? Dead.

On the other hand, who is around to help her? Ser Robert Strong and Maester Qyburn.

[Matthew.]

"Gold shall be their crowns" from the prophecy may have more than one meaning, as it could also be intended as an allusion to their hair color--and, by extension, Jaime as their true father. Nonetheless, if Tommen were to die first, I think it might still open up scenarios in which either Cersei or Doran might want Myrcella crowned (for the latter, it will depend heavily on how the Aegon VI plot line is going to shake out); I'm also not convinced that another attempt at the AFFC plan is out of the question, as the ultimate intent was really about provoking open war, and bringing Dorne into the fray.

I'm also put to mind of this comment from Littlefinger:

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I had hoped to have four or five quiet years to plant some seeds and allow some fruits to ripen, but now . . . it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos. What little peace and order the five kings left us will not long survive the three queens, I fear."

Many ways to read this - eg, the "three queens" could be the Queen of Thorns, Margaery, and Cersei, and he could be referring to Cersei's incompetence and paranoia toward Margaery and Olenna, rather than outright civil war - but he may also have some more ambitious plans in mind; for example he has Lyn Corbray in his pocket (to an extent) in the Vale, so he might have similar relationships with several minor nobles throughout Westeros, and therefore could have many co-conspirators for whatever future chaos he's cooking up--or, at the least, sources feeding him information about other players' ongoing conspiracies, and shaping his expectation that the "three queens" will eventually emerge. Accordingly, we might still see Myrcella crowned, and acting as one of the "three queens" in a full civil war.

[Melifeather]

I always took Littlefinger's comment about the "three queens" to include declaring Sansa as Queen in the North, but I can see how it could be in reference to his expectations regarding Myrcella.

[Tucu]

A marriage between Aegon VI and Myrcella after a short war is a possibility. It would fit Aegon's education about duty quite well.

Targaryen, Martell, Baratheon and Lannister all united through a single marriage waiting to resist the Targ with the dragons.

If Aegon read about Baratheon history, he knows that a previous feud between Targs and Baratheons that lead to the rise of a Storm King was settled by Aegon V with a marriage.

 

[Brad Stark]

8 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

If she kept to the marriage alliance, Tristane would be king or king consort, and any children would be in direct succession to the Iron Throne. Why wouldn’t Doran support that?

Other than he had a chance to support this and tried to stop it once, no reason. 

We have 2 different scenarios, Myrcella as queen of the Seven Kingdoms and Myrcella as queen of Dorne.  Doran is more likely to support the first, but I don't see Cersei supporting it, especially if Doran does. 

[SirArthur]

9 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Who is left to stop Cersei? Tywin? Dead. Kevan? Dead. Pycelle? Dead.

On the other hand, who is around to help her? Ser Robert Strong and Maester Qyburn.

I don't understand what power by force has to do with anything. As I said, everyone can set himself a golden crown on top of his head. Just requires a crown for it. Does not even need some land or a title attached to it. 

I'm sure Myrcella can become Queen of the Rhoynar, the Andals and the First men. Just not the seven kingdoms. You know, inheritance rules are, what keeps the medieval society together.  

[Matthew.]

19 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I always took Littlefinger's comment about the "three queens" to include declaring Sansa as Queen in the North, but I can see how it could be in reference to his expectations regarding Myrcella.

I think Sansa is still a potential candidate for LF's reference, regardless of how the Myrcella thing turns out.

If we read "queen" in the most expansive terms possible, then Sansa, Dany, Myrcella, Cersei, Margaery, Olenna, Jeyne Westerling, Selyse, Shireen, and Asha could all variously fall under that umbrella as literal queens, figurative queens, aspiring queens, and potential future queens.

Within the overall context of the conversation, however, there's a few scenarios that I think would be the most likely things for Littlefinger to expect (or perhaps to be actively engineering) in the immediate future:

-The "three queens" is not a reference to a five kings style civil war, but rather the escalating infighting within the Lannister-Tyrell alliance, with Olenna, Margaery, and Cersei as the three queens

-Sansa, as queen of a Riverlands-North-Vale alliance vs. Cersei (or Margaery) as the queen of the Lannister-Tyrell bloc, and Myrcella as the ostensible true queen under Dornish inheritance

-Alternately, after the stunt Cersei pulled to get Margaery imprisoned, the Lannisters and Tyrells come into open war against one another, and Dorne enters the fray--again, with Myrcella as a figurehead to give the veneer of legitimacy

We could throw Dany into some of those mixes as well, but I have a gut feeling that she isn't one of the queens that LF was referring to; he knew about her marriage to Khal Drogo, and he would presumably have heard about her dragons and army of Unsullied, but since she (as far as the wider world knows) has parked herself in Slaver's Bay to be Queen of Meereen, he might not be making any assumptions as to how soon she might invade, much less that she might be invading at the head of a unified Khalsar, quite possibly with the aide of Euron and Victarion's fleet--in short, I suspect Littlefigner is underestimating how severely Dany is going to upend the situation in Westeros.

[Matthew.]

12 hours ago, SirArthur said:

I'm sure Myrcella can become Queen of the Rhoynar, the Andals and the First men. Just not the seven kingdoms. You know, inheritance rules are, what keeps the medieval society together.  

But we're not exploring whether or not Myrcella is the "legal" queen, we're asking whether or not she might still be crowned, particularly in relation to Maggy's prophecy; I think Renly's cause demonstrates that legality went out the window long ago, and it's really all about whether or not politically ambitious factions can sell their cause as having even the thinnest layer of legitimacy.

For Myrcella, I think there's still a couple paths by which she might find herself crowned; for one, if Tommen dies, then the political calculus for both Doran and Cersei changes.

For another, we shouldn't lose sight of the context for the Myrcella crowning plan in the first place: to hurt the Lannisters and provoke open war by putting Cersei in the miserable position of having two of her children with rival claims. In particular, it's worth noting that Gerold Dayne wasn't entirely on the same page as Arianne, and when the crowning failed, he moved onto Plan B and attacked Myrcella in what was (presumably) an attempt to provoke the Crown. 

The point being that there might still be those in Dorne (and outside of Dorne, as there's people like LF who thrive on creating chaos) looking to defy Doran's caution, and who might look to proclaim Myrcella the rightful queen of Westeros--not because they care about the underlying legality, or even the idea of Dorne being politically ascendant, but because they're actively looking to instigate war.

[Melifeather]

I quite agree with Matthew. He’s hit on all of my main points including that Doran’s position would definitely change should Tommen die.

Doran only objected, because he didn’t want to directly challenge Tommen’s reign and incite war, whereas war was Darkstar’s whole motivation for going along with Arianne.