The Sleeper Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Widow's Watch said: This is like Tom singing the Maiden of the Tree in Arya's presence back in ASOS, imo. But a song that a black brother (connected to Jon), singing about a lady who was a in tower and killed herself after her prince died, while Arya is sitting there, screams Lyanna to me, not Ashara. I was thinking of her altercation with Ned Dayne when she was told the actual tale about Ashara taking a dive. Still, though is there another lady who could have inspired this song? 24 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said: I think Ned would have told him she died of a fever. He must have told him, and everyone else for that matter, something. I suppose a fever is as good as anything and it avoids further recriminations. I'm kind of surprised this hasn't come up before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bael's Bastard Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 @SFDanny 6 hours ago, SFDanny said: As someone who has lived about as long as Ser Barristan is supposed to have done, I don't seem to have as big a problem with his use of "soon after" to mean a year or two after. It seems life speeds up as we grow older. But this could obviously be colored by my personal bias, and a senile mind. I'm kidding about the last part. Or at least I hope so. But let me ask you, who is your candidate for the father of Ashara's stillborn daughter if she is conceived later than Harrenhal? Late enough to meet your definition of "soon after." Here we are talking about a child approximately the same age as Jon and Robb, I think. Was Ashara with Ned? Was she with Rhaegar? We agree a later pregnancy leaves out Brandon. Still my favorite candidate for the father of Ashara's child. Who is your candidate and why do you think Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhal if she didn't have a child conceived there? I should say, I have advanced the idea in the past, that we may find out that there is a meeting of Ashara and Ned during this time. But, honestly, I think that may well be just Martin trying to keep a Ned and Ashara romance as a possibility for as long as he can. But you never know. Perhaps Ashara walked into Ned's camp under a peace banner one night and stayed a few days to see if a peace between the rebels and Rhaegar could be worked out. Total complete wild guess based on absolutely nothing, but Martin is going to have to do something more than he has done if he wants to keep the possibility of Ashara being Jon's mom alive. Which is a very long winded way of saying I don't dismiss the possibility. I just want some evidence that backs it up. It's possible that Barristan had "a year" or "a year and a half" in mind when it said "soon after." It's possible that he has forgotten how long passed between Ashara's alleged stillbirth and her alleged suicide. It's possible that Barristan is confusing the amount of time between when he heard about Ashara's alleged stillbirth and when he heard about her suicide, for the actual amount of time between Ashara's alleged stillbirth and her alleged suicide. But it's also possible that Barristan had "weeks" or "months" in mind when he said "soon after," and that his information is not incorrect, and that his memory is not incorrect. Again, I am only suggesting that it is a possibility among the others. To be honest, I am not certain who I would learn toward in the event of a later conception, especially since there are still so many pertinent dates that are unknown. Rhaegar and his close companions had set out by the start of 282 AC, but when in 282 AC was Brandon executed? In which year and which part of the year did Ashara allegedly lose her child? In which year and which part of the year did Ashara allegedly throw herself off a tower? Brandon could have conceivably impregnated Ashara at some point after Harrenhal. But if he was executed in early or mid 282 AC, then that would still put Ashara's alleged stillbirth in late 282 AC or early 283 AC. If Brandon wasn't executed until late 282 AC, then her alleged stillbirth could have occurred closer to mid or late 283 AC. That might still leave a notable gap between her alleged stillbirth and her alleged suicide, but not as large as the year or year and a half gap. I have entertained the idea of Lewyn Martell, but I just don't think that one holds up. Barristan knows Lewyn kept a paramour, though I don't recall if it is explicit that he knows her identity. But Arianne tells Arys that Lewyn's paramour is an old woman now, which implies that she is still alive and that she knows her identity. I have also entertained the idea that Ned truly did have a thing with Ashara starting at Harrenhal, and that he did impregnate Ashara at some point during the war, whether soon before or soon after he agreed to wed Catelyn to win Lord Hoster Tully's swords. In a version of this scenario, she might learn of her loss of Ned to Catelyn around the Battle of the Bells, then lose her child with Ned in the weeks or months before Ned shows up, at which point he informs her of the death of her brother, and leaves for good to return to Catelyn and their son. I can't say I lean towards Ned. It's entirely possible, and perhaps even most likely, he's never been with anyone except Catelyn. I have just considered the possibility that Ned does have legitimate feelings of guilt beyond whatever promises he made to Lyanna and secrets he kept from Catelyn and Robert concerning Jon. I acknowledge that we might expect Barristan to have a more negative view of Ned if he were the one he believed to have "dishonored her" at Harrenhal, but who knows? Regard her being dishonored at Harrenhal, I lean towards Barristan believing that someone deflowered her at Harrenhal, whether she conceived there or not. Whoever the candidate, they obviously also did not wed her after the fact. 7 hours ago, SFDanny said: I agree with almost all of this. I think Varys is only entirely on his own side. He excels at playing other people against each other to his benefit. But, just as Ned never really trusts him, I think Rhaegar and Elia have too much experience with his work for Aerys to ever fully trust him. My version also has Varys creating a story after the fact. But again, my main problem with this being Varys's tale created out of thin air is the five-year gap in Connington's contact with "Aegon." I agree these are muddy waters and too many shapes of things beneath the surface can't be made out. I agree that Rhaegar and Elia would be highly unlikely to fully trust Varys, especially with the life of their son. And like I said, I really don't believe baby Aegon was saved by anyone, regardless of who came up with the plan. But in general, I just think we should view Varys and speculation about his relationships with past characters in light of what we see from his relationships with characters we see him interact with in the current story, like Ned and Tyrion, characters who also don't necessarily trust him, but nevertheless found themselves at times in need of his help, either for themselves or for their loved ones. 8 hours ago, SFDanny said: A couple of things. I think you make and error by assuming things were planned to be as they are in the aftermath of the chaos of the War of the Five Kings. Varys, and maybe Illyrio, have been planning this for 17 years and those plans have to include a way of persuading the Prince of Dorne that Young Griff is Aegon, whether that is the truth or not. The small people may be wiling to rise against the Lannisters, but that wasn't always the case. The noble allies of the Targaryens are not so powerful and organized after Robert's triumph to have much chance winning against six of the seven High Lords and their loyal houses. Chaos is needed, and maybe Varys thinks he can manufacture it at any time, but winning must include Dorne. At least at the start. That as we see, even in this most chaotic time, needs proof which Doran Martell will believe, because, as he makes clear, he only plays games he can win. Being Varys's tool to back a pretender isn't going to work. Varys must have a plan to persuade Doran that "Aegon" is who he says he is, and Jon Connington can't do that. Varys can't do that. And Illyrio sure as hell can't do that. Ashara Dayne can do that, if she can convince Doran that she smuggled Aegon out and raised him in the Free Cities, and on that riverboat on the Rhoyne. To me, she is the only person that can accomplish that. Ser Richard Lonmouth may appear out of nowhere, but he wasn't on that boat teaching Aegon his lessons. It is difficult to know how Varys and Illyrio originally intended to introduce AeGriff, and how they originally intended to pave the way for that in terms to destabilizing Robert, his in laws, and his relationships with his allies. They would have known that Jon wasn't going to live forever., and that even if he died and Ned came south, they could exploit the enmity between Stark and Lannister. They might have learned about Cersei's desire to knock Robert off, and that Ned would have a hard time whole heartedly supporting the Lannisters controlling Robert's children and the throne. I'm not really sure. But regardless of how they originally intended to attempt to destabilize Robert and his regime and his relationships with his allies, I do think they probably intended to introduce him after manipulating Robert's allies into conflict, even if they never could have envisioned so many different factions as during the War of the Five Kings. And if they always intended to produce AeGriff one day, then I think it comes down to the same thing I said earlier. Just presenting AeGriff as who they claim him to be forces people to consider the possibility, and forces them to make a choice, and that is especially so with the Martells. And again, if Ashara had really taken part in saving Aegon, I think it makes no sense that they made no attempt to make it known to the Martells, and I'm not sure Ashara popping up after seventeen years claiming to have saved Aegon makes them any more or less unlikely to believe or support AeGriff. I am sure the Martells would love to believe that their son Aegon survived, but I think ultimately, they would support AeGriff whether they believed it or not, so long as they believed he had a chance of winning. And even if they believed it was him, if they didn't believe they had a chance at winning, I don't think they would raise Dorne for him. Before now, they never had a chance. But now, as AeGriff is landing in Westeros and taking Stormlands castles, and contacting the Martells, the Lannister regime has never been weaker. They have chosen the scummiest most hated allies in the Riverlands and North, neither of whom are really capable of helping the Lannisters if they are threatened. And beside that, all they really have is the Tyrells, who are tied to them with a marriage that will not be capable of producing an heir for years. AeGriff may very well look appealing enough to the Tyrells for them, or some of their more powerful bannermen, to jump ship once he has demonstrated a little success, and revealed who he claims to be. I am not sure that Varys and Illyrio are or have ever been banking on someone famous who can attest to AeGriff's provenance as prince Aegon, whether Connington, or Ashara, or anyone else. We know Connington didn't get involved for a handful of years, and people wanting to disbelieve the story could just as easily point out that Aegon was killed in King's Landing months before Ashara disappeared from Starfall, and that there is no proof she saved him, brought him to Starfall, and that this child she is vouching for has anything to do with Aegon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Twinslayer Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 12 hours ago, SFDanny said: The Twinslayer, I hesitated to respond to this because I'm sure I already let my disagreements be clearly known on your misinterpretation of the SSM in question, and saw no reason to repeat them. However, for those who didn't read my earlier responses to your idea here, let me restate my thinking again. Martin often makes editorial changes about which book whole chapters will appear. He makes changes about when he will release bits of information as well. And he sometimes flat out changes his mind about where the story will go. Any long time reader of George's works and his public statements will know this. So in evaluating the worth of old public statements, written or oral, we, the readers, need to keep that all in mind. What Martin said years ago may well not be true today for many reasons, and we should look to see if we can verify old statements by looking for either newer ones that contradict the older ones, or, even better, newer published material that contradict or confirm the older material. If that was what you did with this particular SSM then I would applaud your efforts. But instead what you do is distort what newer material says and what the the old SSM says in order to discredit a different section of this SSM. To be sure, the planned volume of publication of the material telling us Ashara was one of Elia's lady companions changed from A Storm of Swords to A Dance with Dragons, but that editorial decision has nothing to do with the continuing validity of the content of what Martin said in 1999. But more importantly, what you do is seize on what you see as a contradiction between one part of Martin's remarks in 1999 and use that to say all of the old SSM is now wrong. Nothing could be further from the truth. Was Ashara "one of Princess Elia’s lady companions in King’s Landing in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar" as the SSM in question states? Clearly the answer to Ashara being a Lady companion is correct as Ser Barristan tells us in his comparison of Elia to Ashara saying that "[h]is choice would have been a young maiden not long at court, one of Elia's companions ... though compared to Ashara Dayne, the Dornish princess was a kitchen drab." So, the main content of Ashara's relationship spoken of in 1999 is verified in the text of A Dance with Dragons, not contradicted by it. It is only the "in King's Landing in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar" part of this you find is somehow proven wrong. But even this pedantic nitpick is wrong as a proof even part of the SSM is invalid. What The World of Ice & Fire tells us is not what you say it does. The section about Rhaegar deciding to take up residence in Dragonstone and move from King's Landing doesn't say how long after the marriage the move takes place, nor does it say the two never comes back to King's Landing during this time. In fact, it tells us that they do. When they bring Rhaenys, at an unknown age, back to King's Landing to be presented to Aerys and Rhaella. In short, we have evidence that Elia and Rhaegar, along with Ashara presumably, are in King's Landing in 280 AC and likely back in King's Landing for a time in 281 AC. Which would make the 1999 statement still true. One shouldn't mistake the word "in" for the phrase "for the duration of," but you do. Now, that doesn't mean Martin didn't make a change here. He may well have decided at a later date to have this move to Dragonstone take place. It's just that your "evidence" doesn't show it, anymore than it invalidates this content or any other content of the old SSM. The old SSM also clearly states that Ashara is not "nailed to the floor in Starfall" and this whole essay is an example of how the books continue to verify the possibility Ashara travels and is not stuck in Starfall. There are very few points that we can say Ashara was in this place at this time between Harrenhal and her supposed suicide in Starfall. So, this then is another part of the SSM that rather than provide evidence that it is no longer valid, you provide nothing to contradict what Martin said in 1999. Certainly your distortion of Ashara's time in King's Landing doesn't have anything to do with where she was between Harrenhal and when she supposedly "jumped off the Palestone Tower." Lastly, let's not leave out the real reason for your crusade against this old SSM. It has nothing to do with how long Ashara was in King's Landing, nor what she did after Harrenhal, and it doesn't have anything to do any changes in which book this information appears. It is all because this is the same old SSM in which Martin famously answers the question about the age difference between Jon and Daenerys, saying "no, Jon was not born 'more than a year' before Dany ... probably eight or nine months or thereabouts." The effort centers around discrediting this statement by George and any suspicion you can cast on its validity, no matter how you distort the text, or how you tie unrelated content to each other to do so. What you need to do, The Twinslayer, is show how this statement is no longer true. And here is the irony in your effort. The more information we have about Jon and Dany's namedays shows that they fall within the timeframe George spoke of in 1999. And the more we know about this topic the more we know that efforts to place Jon's conception during Ned's trip to Starfall is ridiculous and contradicted by the evidence. Twinslayer, I have no problem discussing this last question - in an appropriate thread - but be honest about what your are doing, and don't distort evidence to try to make it say something it doesn't. That is unnecessarily harsh. I'll assume that is because you misunderstood my motive in making this point in this thread. You are correct that I do not believe that the part of that SSM relating to the relative timing of Jon's and Dany's births is accurate. I think it contradicts too many things we learn during the course of the books. But that is not what this thread is about, and it is not what my post was about. My issue with that SSM (and a number of others) is that I think it is demonstrably incorrect yet there are a significant number of threads and theories that are distorted by the assumption that it is canon. In other words, the assumption that that SSM is correct leads many posters to form convoluted theories that aren't really consistent with other things we learn in the books. The timing of Jon's birth is just one example: most of the theories about the timeline for Robert's Rebellion are distorted by using that SSM as a reference point. The problem with doing that is that there is no good way to reconcile the common belief that Jon is younger than Robb; the fact that Ned and Catelyn were married (and Robb was conceived) after the Battle of the Bells, as explained in ASOS; and the SSM's placement of Jon's birth around the time of the Sack. To me, the only logical explanation is that GRRM had a draft ASOS chapter placing Jon's birth around the time of the Sack but he took it out of the book because it was inconsistent with the information Jaime and Catelyn provided in ASOS about the timeline for the Rebellion. But as I said, that is not why I brought this up here. I raised it here because your OP quotes the language stating that "As a matter or fact (a tiny tidbit from ASOS), she was one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar." I believe that that matters because we know that that statement is flatly untrue: Rhaegar and Elia married in 280, Rhaenys was born in 280 on Dragonstone, and Elia was bedridden for six months after the birth. That means that even if Elia lived in King's Landing for some period of time while she was pregnant, it was for less than a year, after which she moved to Dragonstone for an extended period of time. So there is no way that Elia and Ashara lived together in King's Landing "in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar." In other words, what happened here is that at some point GRRM changed his mind about where Elia and Ashara were living at that time. This caught my attention because here you have started a thread about Ashara's whereabouts, a topic I find very interesting. It appeared to me that the information about where Elia and Ashara lived "in the first few years" of Elia's marriage might be important to your theory, since you quoted it. The information in the quote is not accurate, so I asked you how important that information is to your theory. That has nothing to do with when Jon Snow was born and everything to do with the theory you are advancing here. If I have understood your answer correctly, rather than agreeing that the 1999 quote about Ashara's whereabouts is inaccurate, you have two responses. The first is to try to reconcile the SSM with the information provided in the world book on the basis that placing Elia in King's Landing in the first few years of her marriage is consistent with Elia living on Dragonstone during those years if she visited King's Landing a few times during that period. I don't think that works. If that is what GRRM meant in 1999, he would have said "Ashara was a lady companion to Elia on Dragonstone, although they spent some time in King's Landing, too." The second is you say that GRRM simply moved this information from ASOS to ADWD. I don't think that works either, because while Barristan confirms that Ashara was a "companion" to Elia "at court," he does not say whether it is Rhaegar's court on Dragonstone or Aerys' court in King's landing. In light of the information in the world book it appears that Barristan was referring to Rhaegar's court. I also don't think that Barristan would consider "the first few years" of Elia's marriage (implying 3+ years) to be "not long at court." But none of this answers my question: is it important to your theory that the information relating to Ashara's whereabouts in the first few years of Elia's marriage be accurate. As the thread has developed, it appears that that might not be that important to your theory and that you are relying more on the statement that Ashara was not nailed to the floor in Starfall. So perhaps none of this matters to your theory after all. So perhaps my question has been answered. Having said that, I think you are making another common but possibly erroneous assumption. It appears that you are assuming that Ashara became pregnant during the tournament at Harrenhal and that she had her stillbirth within 9 months of the tournament and around eighteen months before she (supposedly) died. I think this is inconsistent with some other information you are referencing. The first is that Barristan says Ashara died "not long" after the stillbirth. I don't think "not long" means eighteen months. Also, you suggest that Ashara likely would have been dismissed from Elia's service and left Dragonstone when she became pregnant. By your reckoning, that has Ashara serving as a lady companion to Elia from some time in 280 until late 281 or early 282. To me, that is inconsistent with "the first few years" of Elia's marriage. You are basing the timing of Ashara's pregancy on Barristan's statement that she was dishonored "at Harrenhal." But that does indicate when Ashara was dishonored, it just tells us where. It could be that she was dishonored "at Harrenhal, during Lord Whent's tourney." But I think the better way to reconcile all of this is to conclude that Ashara was present "at Harrenhal," and was dishonored there about 9-10 months before Ned arrived at Starfall to return Dawn. That would place her "death" at a time "not long" after the (still?)birth. And, it would place the start of her pregnancy any time from a few months after the start of Robert's rebellion until shortly before the end of the rebellion. And depending on how long it took Ned to get from King's Landing to Starfall, it would have her giving birth any time from right around the Sack of King's Landing to several months after the Sack. In other words, it would be interesting to play out your theory about Ashara's movements if you factor in the possibility that she was dishonored "at Harrenhal" some time after the start of the rebellion. Anyway, whether you find my contribution interesting or not, I am interested in this topic and I have enjoyed reading your theory here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bael's Bastard Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 18 hours ago, The Twinslayer said: The point here is that the SSM places Elia and Ashara in King's Landing together in the early years of Elia's marriage to Rhaegar. But the world book says that Elia was on Dragonstone at that time. So the SSM is just wrong. And it is not just a case of moving information from ASOS to ADWD, because Barristan does not place Ashara in King's Landing during those years. He places her "at court." Given that she was a companion to Elia and Elia lived on Dragonstone, the "court" Barristan is referring to is not Aerys' court in King's Landing. It is Rhaegar's court on Dragonstone. It is possible that Ashara never once set foot in King's Landing. Which, to me, calls into question the entirety of the SSM, which is not really about where Ashara lived before the Harrenhal tournament but about whether it was logistically possible for Ned and Ashara to be Jon's parents. On a related note, the information about Ashara being "dishonored at Harrenhal" is phrased in an interesting way. It does not say that she was dishonored during the tournament. It says she was dishonored "at Harrenhal." What if she stayed at Harrenhal with the Whents after the tournament and was caught there when winter returned after the end of the False Spring? In that case, she would have still been "at Harrenhal" when Ned Stark marched past early in the war (or if he went there on his way to or from Riverrun right before or right after his wedding to Catelyn). That would place Ned and Ashara together at just the right time for him to dishonor her "at Harrenhal" and for her to have a baby (or stillbirth) and then disappear "soon after." Your "point" is silly. The fact that GRRM decided that Rhaegar and Elia lived on Dragonstone rather than in King's Landing does not change that Ashara was one of her companions in the years after her marriage to Rhaegar, and that she was not nailed down at Starfall. Those were the pertinent points of the SSM, and those were confirmed by details revealed in the main series. There is no such thing in the books as a "court on Dragonstone" or "Rhaegar's court." However long Ashara or Elia or Ashara with Elia actually spent at court, we can be sure that Selmy is referring to King's Landing, just as in: "Prince Rhaegar's support came from the younger men at court, including Lord Jon Connington, Ser Myles Mooton of Maidenpool, and Ser Richard Lonmouth. The Dornishmen who had come to court with the Princess Elia were in the prince's confidence as well, particularly Prince Lewyn Martell, Elia's uncle and a Sworn Brother of the Kingsguard. But the most formidable of all Rhaegar's friends and allies in King's Landing was surely Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Twinslayer Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 32 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said: Your "point" is silly. The fact that GRRM decided that Rhaegar and Elia lived on Dragonstone rather than in King's Landing does not change that Ashara was one of her companions in the years after her marriage to Rhaegar, and that she was not nailed down at Starfall. Those were the pertinent points of the SSM, and those were confirmed by details revealed in the main series. There is no such thing in the books as a "court on Dragonstone" or "Rhaegar's court." However long Ashara or Elia or Ashara with Elia actually spent at court, we can be sure that Selmy is referring to King's Landing, just as in: "Prince Rhaegar's support came from the younger men at court, including Lord Jon Connington, Ser Myles Mooton of Maidenpool, and Ser Richard Lonmouth. The Dornishmen who had come to court with the Princess Elia were in the prince's confidence as well, particularly Prince Lewyn Martell, Elia's uncle and a Sworn Brother of the Kingsguard. But the most formidable of all Rhaegar's friends and allies in King's Landing was surely Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning." Of course Rhaegar had his own court on Dragonstone. All the Princes and Lords have a court. In fact, Elia grew up with two, since the epilogue to ADWD lists the members of "Prince Doran's court at the Water Gardens" and a separate list of the members of his court "at Sunspear." Hence, the statement that "Qyentyn had grown up amongst the courts of Dorne." And it is not just princes like Rhaegar and Doran who have their own court. When Davos went to White Harbor, he visited Manderly's court: "Davos had hoped to speak with Wyman Manderly alone, but he found a crowded court." When Catelyn and Tyrion go to the the Vale, they find Lysa "powdered and perfumed for the suitors who filled her court," and when Littlefinger proposes to Lyssa he wants to marry her "at the Eeryie, with your whole court in attendance." Sam remembers his father's court at Horn Hill, maester Aemon left the Citadel to serve at "some lordlng's court," Mace Tyrell always "keeps singers at court" in Highgarden, Stannis "keeps court" on Dragonstone, and Jon says about Ygritte that she would not have been thought pretty "at a lord's court." Ser Harrys Harlaw has a court at Grey Garden. Lady Miranda Royce keeps her father's court "lively." The Barratheons kept their own court: "Luke Velaryon's death was witnessed by many eyes at the court of Storm's End." At Casterly Rock, we are told that "Lady Ellyn held a splendid court." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 SSMs have to be seen in context. If George is asked a question about a particular thing and he doesn't have his notes with him and he gives (sort of) an answer then this answer is not gospel - just as him quoting from memory from a chapter he has written a couple of days or weeks ago wouldn't be gospel, either. The Ashara SSM is about the question how Ashara could possibly have been Jon Snow's mother in light of the fact that it doesn't seem likely Ned could have visited her at Starfall during the war - hence the fact that she wasn't glued to that place. But this has nothing to do with Ashara's movements in relation to this whole Aegon idea there, nor does it help us to connect her in any meaningful way to KL. The court she would have been part of would have been Rhaegar's court on Dragonstone, not the court of KL where only the king and the queen lived. Prince Rhaegar and his lady wife left said court and permanently moved to Rhaegar's own castle on Dragonstone. As Elia's companion Ashara Dayne couldn't have been a prominent sight in the Red Keep - aside from the infrequent visits to KL Elia may have done after her marriage. But keep in mind that her pregnancies weakened her greatly. She wouldn't have traveled often. And as Elia's companion Ashara would have been with her princess, not Prince Rhaegar. Whenever Rhaegar visited his parents he would have been accompanied by a string of companions, friends, and retainers - just as Elia - but since those men were Rhaegar's followers they would have been where Rhaegar was, not where the king was. At least for the most part. Exceptions are always possible. As to Ashara's dishonor: The time line would allow it that she was pregnant two times - one after the Harrenhal tourney (if something happened there) and another time later on before her death). Selmy seems to be referring to a stillborn daughter that might have been conceived at Harrenhal. In any case, one should not take the things from ADwD as confirmation that Ashara got pregnant during the tourney when this is not actually confirmed there. If her whole suicide is supposed to be connected, at least in part, to grief over the stillborn child, then the time line is way off. A child conceived in 281 AC would be due in 282 AC, not in 283 (or even 284 AC, depending when exactly Ned arrived at Starfall and when exactly Ashara killed herself). Regardless whether Ashara is dead or not - there must be a convincing story in place for her suicide. The idea she would have killed herself because Arthur's death makes pretty much no sense to me. The idea that she did it because she had lost Ned forever to Catelyn is more understandable, especially if her stillborn daughter or another child actually had been Ned's child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seams Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 6 hours ago, The Map Guy said: Thanks for the fun read, but I have one big question: Ashara only has a few key mentions in ASOIAF, one was where she dances with a couple of fellas in Harrenhal....what was GRRM's purpose for that in your theory? Your theory and other theories gives Ashara a political agenda and baby swapping capabilities...I just don't see that. Ashara is just a poor tragic girl who lost her stillborn child, her lover, and her brother. Ashara has purple eyes like Dany as Barristan suggested, but that is because Dany has seen the same thing. Dany also lost her stillborn child, her lover, and her two brothers. Like many feast scenes, the Harrenhal feast described by Meera has a dreamlike quality and that creates ambiguity and offers clues about more than one plot or arc in the series. For instance, I see a number of parallels between the Harrenhal feast and Joffrey's wedding feast. In the same passage, I believe the author is providing a number of hints about the comparison between Ashara Dayne and Brienne of Tarth. “Under Harren’s roof he ate and drank with the wolves, and many of their sworn swords besides, barrowdown men and moose and bears and mermen. The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head. A black brother spoke, asking the knights to join the Night’s Watch. The storm lord drank down the knight of skulls and kisses in a wine-cup war. The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword, a red snake, and the lord of griffins, and lastly with the quiet wolf… but only after the wild wolf spoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench. Yes, this passage appears to be an account of people and interactions at the feast before the tourney. We know from the Dance of the Dragons, among other phrases, however, that dancing is also a euphemism for armed conflict. Where Ashara literally danced with men at the feast, Brienne engages her partners in combat and conflict: The white sword might be Jaime. Brienne fights with him just before they are captured by Vargo Hoat's men. The red snake could be Timeon, a Dornishman who is one of the three men from Hoat's crew who end up at the Whispers after buying a map from Dick Crabb. Just before Brienne kills him, he is described: "A second man slipped over the lip of the well, making no more noise than a snake might make slithering across a pile of wet leaves." (AFfC, Chapter 20) The Lord of Griffins could be Ronnet Connington, who was betrothed to Brienne and was the Lord of Griffin's Roost when his cousin, Jon Connington, was thought to have died. Ronnet presented her with a rose but rejected the betrothal, causing Brienne to feel an antipathy for roses for the rest of her life. I believe the reference to dancing with a quiet wolf has not yet occurred. It very likely foreshadows a conflict between Brienne and Jon Snow, whose direwolf is famously silent. Brienne may allow inferences about Ashara How does this come back to the OP, and the theories about Ashara protecting baby Aegon? If I am correct in my belief that the author wants us to compare Ashara Dayne and Brienne of Tarth, we may be able to piece together more clues about Ashara's role by looking at some of the details of Brienne's arc. Brienne swears her loyalty to Catelyn and promises to rescue and protect her children. This could fit with the theory in the OP that Ashara was loyal to Elia and helped to protect the queen's newborn infant. There are a number of parallels between Brienne and Ser Barristan Selmy, who was smitten with Ashara Dayne. Ser Barristan was responsible for saving the life of young Dontos Hollard, who would have been killed by Aerys after the Defiance of Duskendale, along with all of the Darklyns and other Hollards. Brienne meets up with Podrick Payne at the ruined castle that was once the seat of House Hollard, birthplace of Ser Dontos. This symbolic rebirth suggests to me that we are meant to compare Ser Dontos and Podrick. Brienne is the protector and mentor for Pod (apparently she saves him with her "word" when the Brotherhood without Banners begins to hang Brienne, Pod and Ser Hyle). Perhaps Barristan's role in saving Ser Dontos and Brienne's role in saving Pod can be compared to Ashara saving baby Aegon. Another child who may fall under the protection of Brienne is Gendry, son of Robert and the spitting image of a young Renly. So far, there seems to be a reversal of roles with Gendry saving Brienne, using a sword he has forged to slay Rorge as he attacks her. Brienne's first love was Renly Baratheon. This is the man with whom she literally danced. He was not attracted to her, but it had nothing to do with her physical appearance. He respected her and allowed her an equal opportunity to advance in her chosen field as a warrior. He was also a king. By contrast, Brienne was victimized by a group of highborn men among Renly's bannermen. They formed a betting pool about which one would take her maidenhead and pretended to be nice to Brienne as part of the seduction. When Randall Tarly found out about the cruelty to Brienne, he blamed her and encouraged her to return to Tarth. Brienne got revenge by seeking out all of the false suitors in the melee at Bitterbridge, defeating them all in combat. Renly = Rhaegar? Figuring out the symbolism around Renly and these suitors might help us to figure out who was Ashara Dayne's lover or the man who dishonored her. As I've been preparing to write this post, the idea of a Renly / Rhaegar parallel makes some sense. Both were royal figures. (I also have a persistent notion that Renly is a Targaryen man after he dies and is "reincarnated" by Ser Garlan Tyrell wearing his green armor.) We know that Rhaegar wanted more children. We know that Ashara was considered to be extremely beautiful. Maybe Rhaegar and Ashara were having a love affair; perhaps Elia even condoned it. (Fwiw, when he hears the news about Daenerys hatching dragons, Maester Aemon says that he and Rhaegar never thought of a Targaryen princess being the one to hatch dragons or embody a prophecy. It's possible that Rhaegar wasn't counting Rhaenys when he said the dragon must have three heads. Maybe he had sons with Elia, Lyanna and Ashara, believing that three boys were necessary to make the prophecy come true.) If the Rhaegar theory doesn't seem right, there are other possibilities. Because of Ashara's renowned beauty, highborn status and access to the royal family, she probably had many suitors. Does the circle of "suitors" around Brienne tell us that Ashara might have felt surrounded and victimized by prospective husbands? Was she perhaps taken against her will? Is there a Varys parallel? Another topic in the OP is when Varys became part of the Aegon plot. I think the theories are correct that Rhaegar, Elia and Ashara would not have trusted Varys. I also agree that he might have found out about the plot in a different way and wanted to be part of it after the fact. Or here are another couple of scenarios: 1) Ashara was successful in taking the royal baby out of the Crownlands and/or Dragonstone. The baby that was left behind was an imposter; a so-called Pisswater Prince. Varys did not know that the baby in King's Landing was a fake so he brought in yet another baby, swapped out Pisswater Prince #1 and placed PP#1 with Septa Lemore and Jon Connington, telling them that the baby was Rhaegar's son because he believed it to be true. 2) Ashara put her own baby, a half-brother of Aegon, into the cradle at King's Landing and fled with the full-blooded royal baby. Varys took the half-brother and gave him to Lemore and Connington. If this baby was Ashara's baby with Rhaegar, she would have been heartbroken to hear that the baby had been killed when the city was sacked. Of course, there are other parallels that might apply to the Aegon baby-switching theories: Gilly's baby with Craster is switched with Dalla's baby fathered by Mance. I see parallels between Gilly and Lyanna and there are many comments in this forum about the similarities between Rhaegar and Mance. So the Gilly / Dalla baby swap might seem like a swap of Lyanna's baby (often thought to be Jon Snow) with Rhaegar's baby, Aegon. But what if Gilly is more like Ashara than like Lyanna? Craster did not recognize Mance as the King Beyond the Wall and may have thought of himself as the more important figure among the free folk. I think there are going to be real or symbolic royal things about both Monster and Aemon Battleborn. When Arya spies on the two men (presumed to be Ilyrio and Varys) in the depths of the Red Keep, they say something about a book and a bastard. We know that Ned has been looking at a book with descriptions of the hair color of highborn babies and that he has met with Robert's natural son, Gendry. But the men never say the names of the people they are discussing. As with the feast at Harrenhal or Dany's visions in the House of the Undying, GRRM is deliberately vague about who or what is being discussed. Based on their words, I think it is entirely possible that the men overheard by Arya are discussing Jon Snow and perhaps the book at the Winterfell library that Tyrion borrowed to read during his trip to the Wall. Maybe Ilyrio and Varys are aware that there is a Targaryen child in hiding somewhere in Westeros or Essos, and they have been trying to track him down. Maybe Ashara Dayne delivered Aegon to Winterfell to put him as far away as possible from people who might try to use him in ways inconsistent with Rhaegar and Elia's wishes. One more notion on this theory about the Ashara / Brienne parallel: Ser Hyle Hunt may be a symbolic Varys in the Brienne arc. He was one of the cruel bannermen who pretended to court Brienne, so she doesn't trust him. This would be in keeping with the theory from the OP that Ashara would not trust Varys to be part of the initial planning for the effort to save baby Aegon. For some reason, though, he breaks with Tarly and seems to want to join Brienne because he wants to help her. He helps her to find Dick Crabb, who seems to have useful information. Do we trust Hyle 100%? No. So he feels kind of Varys-like in Brienne's little circle during her quest. There is also a detail about Hyle Hunt that might be a match for the role Varys plays with baby Aegon. As they move on from the Quiet Isle, Brienne and her traveling companions come upon dead soldiers. Ser Hyle picks up a helmet (half helm?) from a dead man and offers it to Pod. Pod is disgusted and refuses the helmet. Of course, we know the story that Gregor Clegane killed baby Aegon by smashing his brains against a wall. There is a lot of symbolism around borrowed armor and loaning someone a helmet. Hyle's gesture toward Pod may have been an echo of the attempt by Varys to protect baby Aegon from having his brains dashed against a wall. A parting thought about Ser Barristan Barristan seems like the common link between Brienne and Ashara. I think he is going to turn out to be a major example of GRRM's unreliable narrator, however. Ser Barristan is an astounding warrior, with many amazing feats to his credit. So many that it seems impossible that he should be so invincible. I think we are going to find that Ser Barristan has undergone the same or a similar rejuvenation that Beric Dondarrion has undergone through the ministrations of Thoros of Myr. We know that Ser Beric's memory was affected by his numerous resurrections, and that he has forgotten details of his original life. I suspect something similar has happened in the mind of Ser Barristan, and that the things he remembers about Ashara and the tournament at Harrenhal are not necessarily accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Map Guy Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 5 hours ago, Seams said: dancing is also a euphemism for armed conflict A Syrio Forel reference? lol 5 hours ago, Seams said: I believe the author is providing a number of hints about the comparison between Ashara Dayne and Brienne of Tarth I kinda see the points you are making, but it seems farfetch with a lot of holes that need to be filled in with a lot of "what ifs"' It's a decent catch comparing Ashara's dance scene with Brienne's whole life, but we don't know much about this mysterious Ashara other than a dozen details given about her. The dance scene is just one detail out of the dozen. Ashara has lost a stillborn, has lost a lover and have lost a brother...these are a few things given to us about Ashara, and it doesn't really parallel with Brienne. These dozen or so facts about Ashara are given to us via Stark Chapters in the early books, which makes me think Ashara is involved in the Stark plot-line. These wild Ashara and fAegon swapping theories only developed after 2011 ADWD. Ashara's mystery has been around since 1996, and I don't think 1996-trilogy-GRRM have ever conceived of writing the story of fAegon 15 years later. Ashara has an original mystery as old as R+L=J in 1996. And I think that original 1996 mystery suggested that some members of the honorable House Stark were not so honorable......Lyanna and Brandon. The only time we see Ashara mentioned outside of a Stark POV chapter is a Barristan's Chapter in ADWD. Here are some possible "multiple meanings" from that chapter...leading up to and during Ashara's recollection: Quote Its better to die with honor than to live without it. Which may suggest Brandon died with honor because his scandalous relationship with Ashara was kept secret by Ned. Quote Plots, ploy, whispers, lies, secrets within secrets, and somehow I have become part of them. Secrets within secrets...R+L=J and B+A=stillborn And somehow I have become part of them....GRRM acknowledging Ashara's mystery were Stark-only POV chapters, but somehow Barristan has become part of them. Quote The Red Keep has its secrets too Secret Dungeon Sex! Quote [Ashara had] ...those haunting purple eyes. Daenerys has the same eyes. Symbolizing the parallel of Ashara's life story with Daenerys' life story. Just starting out as innocent maids, they have dealt with stillborns, dead brothers and dead lovers. GRRM wrote this for Barristan because it shows how helpless he was with Ashara, it was his biggest failure. Dany is another version of Ashara, but this time Barristan is not helpless anymore in protecting her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sleeper Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 A couple of observations about the known "facts" of Ashara's story. Suicide after a pregnancy that resulted in stillbirth combined with grief is a very plausible scenario, considering the possibility and implications of post-partum depression which is not uncommon and can be very severe. The suicide would need to be within months of the birth considering that post-partum depression doesn't last forever. The mention of her grief as madness would fit with that. Second the Ashara's supposed suicide would have needed to be witnessed. With no body found it would otherwise appeared as if she disappeared. Which would make the tale at best an assumption and at worst a deliberate lie. There might have been a note, but I think that is a modern detective show cliché and not something that belongs to a fantasy novel. Another possibility is that her actual death was more gruesome/dishonorable i.e. she hanged herself and the tale of her throwing herself out of a tower is simply a sanitised version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SFDanny Posted September 6, 2018 Author Share Posted September 6, 2018 23 hours ago, The Twinslayer said: That is unnecessarily harsh. I'll assume that is because you misunderstood my motive in making this point in this thread. Perhaps it was too harsh, but it is accurate. I apologized for being too harsh, but I don't for my judgement on your points concerning this SSM. You come to this discussion with history on the subject, and it's, in my opinion, not good. 23 hours ago, The Twinslayer said: You are correct that I do not believe that the part of that SSM relating to the relative timing of Jon's and Dany's births is accurate. I think it contradicts too many things we learn during the course of the books. But that is not what this thread is about, and it is not what my post was about. Which only shows little understanding of timeline issues. We can talk about that aspect of this in another thread. 23 hours ago, The Twinslayer said: My issue with that SSM (and a number of others) is that I think it is demonstrably incorrect yet there are a significant number of threads and theories that are distorted by the assumption that it is canon. In other words, the assumption that that SSM is correct leads many posters to form convoluted theories that aren't really consistent with other things we learn in the books. The timing of Jon's birth is just one example: most of the theories about the timeline for Robert's Rebellion are distorted by using that SSM as a reference point. The problem with doing that is that there is no good way to reconcile the common belief that Jon is younger than Robb; the fact that Ned and Catelyn were married (and Robb was conceived) after the Battle of the Bells, as explained in ASOS; and the SSM's placement of Jon's birth around the time of the Sack. To me, the only logical explanation is that GRRM had a draft ASOS chapter placing Jon's birth around the time of the Sack but he took it out of the book because it was inconsistent with the information Jaime and Catelyn provided in ASOS about the timeline for the Rebellion. The SSM estimated time difference between Jon and Dany's namedays actual fit within what the books tell us. The range is broad enough that it could mean Jon is slightly older than Robb, or, as Catelyn and Ned tell us, he is slightly younger. In other words, far from showing the SSM is "demonstrably incorrect" is shows that either the namedays are right in the series and in the SSM, or that Jon's nameday has been likely changed to hide the fact he is slightly older. That you don't see that tells me you totally misunderstand, purposefully or not, what the timeline evidence is. 23 hours ago, The Twinslayer said: But as I said, that is not why I brought this up here. I raised it here because your OP quotes the language stating that "As a matter or fact (a tiny tidbit from ASOS), she was one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar." I believe that that matters because we know that that statement is flatly untrue: Rhaegar and Elia married in 280, Rhaenys was born in 280 on Dragonstone, and Elia was bedridden for six months after the birth. That means that even if Elia lived in King's Landing for some period of time while she was pregnant, it was for less than a year, after which she moved to Dragonstone for an extended period of time. So there is no way that Elia and Ashara lived together in King's Landing "in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar." In other words, what happened here is that at some point GRRM changed his mind about where Elia and Ashara were living at that time. Once again, in your argument you substitute the meaning of"for the duration of the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar" for the actual quote that says "in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar." "For the duration" and "in" are not remotely the same concepts. For the quote in the SSM to be true we must show that at some time, and for an unknown duration, in the two years following the marriage, Elia and Rheagar were in King's Landing. Because we know the wedding takes place in King's Landing in early 280 it is extremely likely the couple, and Ashara, are in King's Landing for some time before they announce they are removing to Dragonstone, but even a short time in the aftermath of the wedding would support the SSM's truth. When we add the fact we know the couple, and again likely Ashara, visit King's Landing after the birth of Rhaenys this then, especially given the months we know Elia was bedridden in the aftermath of the birth, looks to place this visit in 281 AC. In other words we have evidence Elia and Rhaegar are in King's Landing after the marriage in 280 and 281, or in the two years after the marriage. Exactly the claim in the SSM quote. The quote in the TWoI&F does not contradict this at all. In fact, it is the source for much of the evidence that they were there in these two years. That it also gives us new information about the couple, and likely Ashara, removing to Dragonstone doesn't change these facts. It only tells us they were not in King's Landing for the entire period in question, but that is not the meaning of the SSM quote. That doesn't mean George did not change his mind about some of this, he could have. It just means your "evidence" that the SSM is wrong is totally bogus. Your "evidence" relies on distorting the meaning of the quote to be something other than it is. But that is only the start of the problem. You take this distortion and say that it therefore invalidates the SSM on topics totally unconnected to the quote in question. How long Ashara, and Elia and Rhaegar, are in King's Landing has nothing to do with whether or not Ashara was a lady companion to Elia during this period. That part of the SSM is verified as still true upon the publication of A Dance with Dragons more than a decade after Martin's remarks in 1999. And here, let me add that it is important to remember this quote that verifies Ashara was Elia's lady companion comes from Ser Barristan. It is in the context of his love for Ashara and presumably when he first met her. Also remembering that Ser Barristan tells us he was never that close a confidant of Rhaegar as Ser Arthur was, makes it very likely that Ashara and Ser Barristan meet and he first falls in love with her in King's Landing at Aerys's court. Not only that, but it has nothing to do with whether or not "Ashara was nailed to the floor in Starfall" as the SSM says emphatically she is not. My post in opening this thread shows how little evidence we have around where Ashara was in the post-Harrenhal days. All of which supports the continued validity of Martin's statement. If you have evidence that shows Ashara was in fact in Starfall for this entire period, that would be evidence that this part of Martin's statement was no longer valid. You don't. You only rely on the distortion of the other part of the SSM to try to invalidate this one. And lastly this distortion has nothing to do with Jon and Dany's namedays and the time between their births. Absolutely nothing. In looking back at this SSM, the various statements by Martin all seemed to be supported by the text of the books published after it. It stands up well. Much better than your argument against it. 23 hours ago, The Twinslayer said: This caught my attention because here you have started a thread about Ashara's whereabouts, a topic I find very interesting. It appeared to me that the information about where Elia and Ashara lived "in the first few years" of Elia's marriage might be important to your theory, since you quoted it. The information in the quote is not accurate, so I asked you how important that information is to your theory. That has nothing to do with when Jon Snow was born and everything to do with the theory you are advancing here. I'm glad you share my interest in the topic, and I welcome any well thought out criticism of it. Saying the quote is not accurate and backing it up with shoddy claims isn't so helpful. If you take the time to read my opening post, you will find I add to the few likely places we would find Ashara post-Harrenhal is on Dragonstone. So, I haven't forgotten what TWoI&F says about Rhaegar and Elia removing themselves from King's Landing to the island. I find it highly likely that Ashara is there with them in the immediate aftermath of Aegon's birth. Although, I admit it is an assumption on my part. 23 hours ago, The Twinslayer said: If I have understood your answer correctly, rather than agreeing that the 1999 quote about Ashara's whereabouts is inaccurate, you have two responses. The first is to try to reconcile the SSM with the information provided in the world book on the basis that placing Elia in King's Landing in the first few years of her marriage is consistent with Elia living on Dragonstone during those years if she visited King's Landing a few times during that period. I don't think that works. If that is what GRRM meant in 1999, he would have said "Ashara was a lady companion to Elia on Dragonstone, although they spent some time in King's Landing, too." The second is you say that GRRM simply moved this information from ASOS to ADWD. I don't think that works either, because while Barristan confirms that Ashara was a "companion" to Elia "at court," he does not say whether it is Rhaegar's court on Dragonstone or Aerys' court in King's landing. In light of the information in the world book it appears that Barristan was referring to Rhaegar's court. I also don't think that Barristan would consider "the first few years" of Elia's marriage (implying 3+ years) to be "not long at court." I think I've answered this already, but let me add two things. Instead of using what you think Martin would have said, let's stick to what he actually said. Secondly, I would again point out that the confirming quote comes from Ser Barristan, and his duties likely place his becoming acquainted with Ashara with the court in King's Landing, not on Dragonstone. We have nothing that actually ever puts Selmy on the island. 23 hours ago, The Twinslayer said: But none of this answers my question: is it important to your theory that the information relating to Ashara's whereabouts in the first few years of Elia's marriage be accurate. As the thread has developed, it appears that that might not be that important to your theory and that you are relying more on the statement that Ashara was not nailed to the floor in Starfall. So perhaps none of this matters to your theory after all. So perhaps my question has been answered. Having said that, I think you are making another common but possibly erroneous assumption. It appears that you are assuming that Ashara became pregnant during the tournament at Harrenhal and that she had her stillbirth within 9 months of the tournament and around eighteen months before she (supposedly) died. I think this is inconsistent with some other information you are referencing. The first is that Barristan says Ashara died "not long" after the stillbirth. I don't think "not long" means eighteen months. Also, you suggest that Ashara likely would have been dismissed from Elia's service and left Dragonstone when she became pregnant. By your reckoning, that has Ashara serving as a lady companion to Elia from some time in 280 until late 281 or early 282. To me, that is inconsistent with "the first few years" of Elia's marriage. You are basing the timing of Ashara's pregancy on Barristan's statement that she was dishonored "at Harrenhal." But that does indicate when Ashara was dishonored, it just tells us where. It could be that she was dishonored "at Harrenhal, during Lord Whent's tourney." But I think the better way to reconcile all of this is to conclude that Ashara was present "at Harrenhal," and was dishonored there about 9-10 months before Ned arrived at Starfall to return Dawn. That would place her "death" at a time "not long" after the (still?)birth. And, it would place the start of her pregnancy any time from a few months after the start of Robert's rebellion until shortly before the end of the rebellion. And depending on how long it took Ned to get from King's Landing to Starfall, it would have her giving birth any time from right around the Sack of King's Landing to several months after the Sack. In other words, it would be interesting to play out your theory about Ashara's movements if you factor in the possibility that she was dishonored "at Harrenhal" some time after the start of the rebellion. If you have any evidence that Ashara was known to be anywhere during this period it would be of interest to me. That, of course, includes evidence to back up your theory that she was at Harrenhal 9-10 months before she meets Ned in Starfall. I don't know of anything that says she was in Harrenhal any other time than at the tourney. Let me know if you find something, and I'll be happy to readjust my thinking on the topic. 23 hours ago, The Twinslayer said: Anyway, whether you find my contribution interesting or not, I am interested in this topic and I have enjoyed reading your theory here. I am glad you enjoyed it, and although I strongly disagree with your comments about the SSM, that doesn't mean I don't want your thoughts on this or other topics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Map Guy Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 6 hours ago, The Sleeper said: Ashara's supposed suicide would have needed to be witnessed. With no body found it would otherwise appeared as if she disappeared. Yes, jumping off a tower would need to be witnessed...which Ned Dayne & Barristan Selmy have said have happenned....implying witnesses. If no one witnessed the actual act of jumping, and no suicide note around...everyone would just imply she disappeared. The interview where GRRM saying Ashara's body was never found after the jump can mean two things: - She naturally died into the sea...bottom of the ocean, swept far away by the storm waves, or eaten by the fishes...etc - She survives the jump and was picked up by a ship, and her story continues...but the probability of this is much lower since we don't have anything to support this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus Snow Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 29 minutes ago, The Map Guy said: The interview where GRRM saying Ashara's body was never found after the jump can mean two things: or it could mean it never happened at all. The majority of Ashara's story is hearsay, even for characters in-world, and we have a very poor 'chain of custody' on the story. We don't know whether she really did give birth, or if she did who witnessed it or first spread the tale. We know the tale was spread, beyond that we are on uncertain ground concerning her stillbirth and suicide. I am inclined to disbelieve both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Chances that Ashara is actually dead are pretty strong at this point. We have an actual report on her suicide, an event that supposedly happened at Starfall in Westeros. That is not on the same level as Varys spreading the rumor that Jon Connington drank himself to death in Essos - which was also pretty believable while we had no reason to believe this story was devised and spread by Varys. The default position when hearing a story that seems to make sense is to believe it. I mean, up until we had Aeron confirming that Balon's body had been found we also only had reports and rumors claiming the man was dead and Euron had seized power at Pyke. Yet nobody entertained the possibility that Balon had faked his death before AFfC came out - at least not to my knowledge. At this point we actually have zero textual evidence that Ashara Dayne is still alive - unlike with Jon Connington or Prince Aegon. It is not impossible that she faked her death, of course, but not exactly something the text is pointing us towards. As for the SSM thing: Keep in mind that 'Jon Snow' doesn't really exist as a person. When George talks about Jon he talks about the fake identity Ned Stark created to hide his nephew's true identity. The idea that 'Jon Snow' and Lyanna's son share a birthday is neither likely nor necessary. The new identity of 'Jon Snow' seems to come not only with a new name and a new father and a new mother but also with a new birthday. In that sense, the SSMs tells us nothing about Lyanna's son, because GRRM never actually talked about Lyanna's son in any way, shape, or form up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus Snow Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 36 minutes ago, Lord Varys said: At this point we actually have zero textual evidence that Ashara Dayne is still alive - unlike with Jon Connington or Prince Aegon. It is not impossible that she faked her death, of course, but not exactly something the text is pointing us towards. Agreed, so far as it goes, but GRRM had four possible answers to the question of whether Ashara's body was ever found: Go away, not telling - George is having a bad day or hiding something.... Yes - would give away that Ashara's definitely dead Maybe/Don't know - it doesn't matter either way, would give away that Ashara is not relevant No - gives away nothing, got you wondering now For whatever reason, he chose #4 But it leaves the door open for Ashara being both relevant, and alive. And IF the suicide is faked, then Starfall is the ideal place to say it happened. It's a known location, under the control of the people who would have to be involved, and where it can be ascertained that there were no 'external' witnesses around who can gainsay the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Map Guy Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 31 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said: No - gives away nothing, got you wondering now Fine, there's probably a 95% she is dead as the books suggest. Perhaps there is a 5% chance she might still be alive only after the suicide attempt, like a ship picking her up...only because GRRM said "her body was never found" outside of the book's text. But there is 0% she would FAKE her suicide. For the dozen of facts we know about Ashara, nothing suggest a political agenda. The OP suggests Ashara may be at the right place and right time for a political conspiracy....but we are still debating if this place and time is even true. For the dozen (NOT dozenS) of facts we know about Ashara, I find it more believable that she is in grief over her stillborn daughter, her dead lover, and her dead brother....that alone is enough to make a suicide jump. What puts her over the edge even more (pun intended) is when Ned shows up to Starfall with baby Jon Snow and the truth. (This scenario implies Brandon was the father of the stillborn...the stillborn has a mystery father right?) Ned asks Ashara to feed baby Jon Snow with her breast milk that was meant for her stillborn, (or any wet-nurse available). Ashara learns that her brother died protecting this baby, but at the same time, this baby was the result of the conflict that had Ashara's lover executed. Also, along with thousands of people who died in the rebellion, Rhaegar & Elia have died too, people she is close to. Ashara, looking at baby Jon Snow...confused, conflicted, and still mourning over her stillborn and her lover's death months ago.....jumps out of the tower with a heart that is broken in multiple dimensions. This is a simpler story, a very tragic story, and a good enough secret story for GRRM write and hide. I just cannot see the extremely complex politically motivated Ashara Dayne, who FAKED her suicide despite all her actual griefs...ONLY because GRRM said her body was never found OUTSIDE of the book's text. With that said...there is a 5% she may be alive because of a failed suicide, but 0% on the fake suicide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seams Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 11 hours ago, The Map Guy said: A Syrio Forel reference? lol I kinda see the points you are making, but it seems farfetch with a lot of holes that need to be filled in with a lot of "what ifs"' It's a decent catch comparing Ashara's dance scene with Brienne's whole life, but we don't know much about this mysterious Ashara other than a dozen details given about her. The dance scene is just one detail out of the dozen. Ashara has lost a stillborn, has lost a lover and have lost a brother...these are a few things given to us about Ashara, and it doesn't really parallel with Brienne. These dozen or so facts about Ashara are given to us via Stark Chapters in the early books, which makes me think Ashara is involved in the Stark plot-line. These wild Ashara and fAegon swapping theories only developed after 2011 ADWD. Ashara's mystery has been around since 1996, and I don't think 1996-trilogy-GRRM have ever conceived of writing the story of fAegon 15 years later. Ashara has an original mystery as old as R+L=J in 1996. And I think that original 1996 mystery suggested that some members of the honorable House Stark were not so honorable......Lyanna and Brandon. The only time we see Ashara mentioned outside of a Stark POV chapter is a Barristan's Chapter in ADWD. Here are some possible "multiple meanings" from that chapter...leading up to and during Ashara's recollection: Which may suggest Brandon died with honor because his scandalous relationship with Ashara was kept secret by Ned. Secrets within secrets...R+L=J and B+A=stillborn And somehow I have become part of them....GRRM acknowledging Ashara's mystery were Stark-only POV chapters, but somehow Barristan has become part of them. Secret Dungeon Sex! Symbolizing the parallel of Ashara's life story with Daenerys' life story. Just starting out as innocent maids, they have dealt with stillborns, dead brothers and dead lovers. GRRM wrote this for Barristan because it shows how helpless he was with Ashara, it was his biggest failure. Dany is another version of Ashara, but this time Barristan is not helpless anymore in protecting her. I can see that you are attached to your Ashara + Brandon theory, and I have no interest in bursting your bubble. I think it's very likely that Brandon has one or more natural children growing up around Westeros and that GRRM wants us to put him on our list of suspects in any number of circumstances. My personal pet theory is that Brandon Stark is the father of the boy who grows up thinking he is Ramsay Snow / Bolton. But that is a discussion for another thread. However, I do want to address some of your assertions here that are not based on the content of the books. I understand that fan fiction is one way to enjoy the books but it seems like a double standard to say that we don't know enough about Ashara to compare her to Brienne (in spite of the evidence I cited) and then to go on imagining her having sex with Brandon, her receiving Lyanna's baby from Ned, and the detailed motives for her reported suicide. Like many, many characters in the books, including Ashara, Dany, Ned, Jon Snow, Theon, Renly, Stannis, Penny, Alys Karstark, Robar Royce, etc., Brienne does have a dead brother. Her brother Galladon drowned when she was a kid. Galladon of Morne is a name from the legendary hero of Tarth and Maidenpool whose story is suspiciously similar to the story of Florian and Jonquil. Recall that Florian is the hybrid knight-fool. The maid of the Seven Gods gives a magical sword to Galladon who uses it only three times. We can use those legends to spot similarities in Brienne's interactions with Jaime, Ser Shadrich (she constantly indicates that she feels like a fool when she recalls interactions with the Mad Mouse) and in her connection to her ancestor, Ser Duncan the Tall. GRRM has deliberately refrained from revealing the entire Florian and Jonquil story but we know from Tanselle's puppet show that Florian kills a dragon and from Sansa crying over the sad song that the love story has a sad ending. The reportedly stillborn baby in Ashara's story could be represented by Brienne's dead sisters, who died as babies. (Interestingly, Brienne does tell Catelyn that her father had a lover who was a singer with a tiny waist. She thinks this singer may have had a son, and that she might have a half brother somewhere out in the world. I wonder whether this detail of Brienne's story might offer and Ashara parallel that would touch on the mysterious Gerald "Darkstar" Dayne and his relationship to the main House Dayne.) You theorize that Ashara is sad about a dead lover because it fits your Brandon theory, but we don't know that this was an actual factor in her world view. (Or correct me if you have a passage from the text that confirms this.) As I outlined in my earlier post, Brienne was profoundly affected by the sudden, violent death of Renly in her presence. He was the only man at that point that she had ever loved and trusted. I didn't mention in that post, but have noted in other threads that Renly had three symbolic spouses: Ser Loras (his true love), Margaery (his wedded wife) and Brienne, onto whose shoulders he places a cloak and from whom he receives a vow, symbolizing a wedding bond in Westeros. So he wasn't her literal lover, but the relationship was at least as important to Brienne as a relationship between lovers would be. The reason the baby-swapping theories heated up after ADwD is that, subsequent to the early mentions of Ashara, we had the example of the Monster / Aemon Steelsong baby swap and Varys explaining the Young Griff / Pisswater Prince baby swap. If you feel there has to be an earlier hint about baby swaps in order to legitimize the speculation about Ashara, do a search on the word "grumkin." The two activities specifically connected to grumkins are swapping out babies and "magicking up" swords. I think Ashara would be an excellent candidate for a grumkin, given the unique sword Dawn connected with her family and her mysterious presence with key players in the Jon Snow back story. A recent discussion established (with input from Ran) that GRRM had not fully outlined the Blackfyre back story for the series until he finished ACoK. I would submit, based on some details in ACoK, that he was working on the Blackfyre history while he was writing Clash, even if it wasn't completed until after that book was sent to the publisher. Even if the author hadn't worked out all the details of the Blackfyre history, I do think he knew there would be an aging Targaryen-connected character in a cave beyond the Wall. He had some hidden motive in mind for Ilyrio and Varys as well, I would guess, in spite of the wedding gifts for Dany. I can't say whether the author also knew there would be a maybe-real / maybe-fake fAegon being raised in secret by Jon Connington. To be fair, we don't know whether the hidden motives behind Ilyrio, Varys and Young Griff have a Blackfyre basis, although a number of persuasive posts on the topic have appeared in this forum. So you may be right that he didn't originally have Ashara's full life history written when she was mentioned in AGoT. I don't think that rules out that he decided to use her for the subplot he developed as he was writing the second book. Another thing to keep in mind: there are a lot of mysterious women who will never be introduced to the reader and are known only in small glimpses or secondhand memories. The many women who die in childbirth, for instance. I would also include Sheira Seastar and Danelle Lothston in this group. Like the maiden of the Seven Gods, these characters have a presence because characters refer to them but we will never see them. (I don't believe Melisandre is literally Sheira Seastar, although I realize that theory is popular with some people in this forum.) I think Ashara and Lyanna also fall into this category. Their importance is not so much their literal role in plot developments but their allegorical or legendary role in affecting other characters. Sort of like the many Lady of the Lake legends in Celtic lore - a beautiful woman emerges from a body of water and gives a hero a sword or entrusts someone with a baby and then disappears again into the lake. Good readers make predictions and, as I said, I have no desire to undermine your Brandon + Ashara theory. I find the original topic here, Ashara's actions after Harrenhal, to be an intriguing mystery and feel comfortable with one source of clues in the parallels with Brienne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhaenys_Targaryen Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 On 9/4/2018 at 8:56 AM, SFDanny said: I also have no doubt that Varys always tries to present himself as everyone's true friend. Long experience with Varys shows however that is not the case, as Rhaegar and Elia found out in the build up to Harrenhal, if not before. Rhaegar and Elia's experience in the sectarian fights before Harrenhal and Varys role in fanning Aerys's paranoia has to make them extremely suspicious of Varys's trustworthiness. It may turn out that your caution is warranted and Elia was hopelessly estranged from her husband, but I think there is reason to question this is the case. The well being of their children is a powerful incentive to have them work together whatever their differences. Remembering that when we last saw husband and wife together, Rhaegar was confiding his belief to her that Aegon was the prince who was promised and he was destined to great things. We have no reason to believe he changed his mind, nor do I think his reference to the dragon having three heads left out little Rhaenys. Which tells me even if Rhaegar only saw his children in the light of prophecy, he still had reason to care for their lives. Ser Barristan tells us that Rhaegar was "fond" of Elia, and there is little reason to think that changed in the last days of their lives. Regarding Varys fanning Aerys's paranoia, if Yandel tells it true (and thanks to Jaime we have reason to believe he does), Rhaegar was actually plotting against the reign of his father (although we do not know what exactly Rhaegar had in mind). And while Rhaegar probably believed his plan were what was best, by informing Aerys that there was a plot going to happen at Harrenhal if he were to stay away, Varys was demonstrating loyalty to his king (whether true or faked). Elia's marriage to Rhaegar is one of the things I hope we will learn more about in the next two novels. Rhaegar did not love her, but was "fond" of her, according to Barristan. Their marriage was "complicated", according to GRRM. And indeed, we have seen Rhaegar confide in his wife concerning a prophecy and how it connects to their newborn son. So how much did Elia know, and how much did she agree with? If she did indeed know what Rhaegar was doing, but if she agreed with his plans, how come Doran - out of anger of Rhaegar's treatment of Elia - refused to send Dornish forces until Aerys began to threaten the lives of Elia and her children? I would expect Elia to have explained Doran what he needed to know in order to agree to send forces to KL, if indeed she had been in the know of it all. And perhaps she tried and we will learn that Doran refused to listen/remained angry at Rhaegar/did not believe her. Perhaps. But until we have something pointing in the direction of that having happened, I'm going to assume that it didn't. And I agree, Rhaegar would certainly have had reason to care for his children. On 9/4/2018 at 8:56 AM, SFDanny said: The fact we know from Martin that Ned takes none of his troops into Dorne with him makes me question how they would know that Ashara was in Starfall to meet Ned. They tell the tale incorrectly as well as we know from Ned's comments to Bran that Howland was involved in that "single combat" with Ser Arthur. What it does tell us is that Ned's soldiers think Ashara is Jon's mother because of his trip to Starfall. Cersei seconds the tale with her talk of Ned taking Jon away from his mother causing Ashara to commit suicide. Ned verifies none of it, of course. For me, it is not a problem questioning the details of these rumors, including just when Ashara arrives in Starfall and whether or not she accompanies Ned there. If Ned had taken ship at Starfall, back to his troops at Storm's End (if that is indeed where he left them behind), the sailors on the ship could have spread the gossip easily. We see in the novels how much they spread stories. Ned's soldiers eventually brought the story north, where it was spread further. Additionally, it would explain how the story spread throughout the rest of Westeros (far enough for Cersei to hear about it). Storm's End still had its own garrison, and who knows who from the Reach was still present. That said, we also learn that the smallfolk love to gossip about their lords. When it comes down to it, everyone could have spread the news But the people who possibly brought Ned from Starfall to Storm's End or King's Landing are a good possibility. On 9/4/2018 at 8:56 AM, SFDanny said: I think the answer to why Ashara would take Aegon to the Tower of Joy instead of Starfall or some other location is simply this: who has control over Rhaegar and Elia's son's well being. In Starfall, the Daynes have their oaths of fealty to Sunspear. The brothers Martell have their own plans that may not include handing Aegon back over to Rhaegar. At the Tower of Joy, Rhaegar and Elia have three proven men who will follow Rhaegar's orders. In fact, it looks like they have chosen to follow his orders over that of his father. At least two of them, and the other seems to fine keeping himself away from any further orders from the king. So, yes, it would be better to hide Aegon and Jon in two separate places, but that would mean either splitting up the trio or entrusting Aegon to someone else of divided loyalties. If Rhaegar and Elia had send Ashara away with Aegon to ensure Aegon's safety, she could have gone to other places than a tower where Rhaegar's third child was about to be born. Rhaegar's own seat comes to mind (neither Rhaella nor Viserys were there already, if Rhaegar had send Ashara on her way before his death at the Trident). Safely away from Aerys, Safely away from Doran and Oberyn (if Oberyn was even in Westeros at the time). Safely away from the rebels. And safely at Rhaegar's own seat. Just a possibility On 9/4/2018 at 8:56 AM, SFDanny said: Anyway those are my thoughts on your excellent questions. Off to bed, my friend. I'll look to see if you have more in the morning. Hope you have a good night of sleep! (actually, several since your post, I hadn't been able to respond earlier). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexis-something-Rose Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 29 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said: If she did indeed know what Rhaegar was doing, but if she agreed with his plans, how come Doran - out of anger of Rhaegar's treatment of Elia - refused to send Dornish forces until Aerys began to threaten the lives of Elia and her children? So I know what the World book says, but I've been wondering if Doran wasn't just waiting for Rhaegar to stir and get a move on before he sent the troops forth. Doran doesn't commit to anything if he doesn't think he will have support or win and while I don't doubt he loved his sister and her children, he has absolutely no qualms sending his family into dangerous situations. He sent Oberyn to King's Landing knowing his brother's temper. He sent Quentyn to Slaver's Bay, not knowing if he would make it there or not. He sent his heir out to investigate the Jon Connington claims. He has no idea what situation Arianne will land in. And he dispatched his brother's sisters to their own dangerous missions. Him being angry about Elia's treatment could have been done just for show. As far as we know the Dornish were supporting whatever plans Rhaegar was making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SFDanny Posted September 6, 2018 Author Share Posted September 6, 2018 On 9/5/2018 at 5:35 AM, The Map Guy said: Thanks for the fun read, but I have one big question: Ashara only has a few key mentions in ASOIAF, one was where she dances with a couple of fellas in Harrenhal....what was GRRM's purpose for that in your theory? While it isn't necessary for my little theory, the inclusion of Ashara in Meera Reed's tale tells us that there may be further support for Catelyn's belief, based on soldier's tales, that there was a relationship between Ned and Ashara. The Shy Wolf who dances with the beautiful maiden after his older brother asks her to do so. Martin keeps the various candidates for Jon's mom in the story before our eyes like a juggler trying to keep all four balls in the air at the same time. This much is obvious. What interests me with this scene is, if we view Harrenhal as a cover for Rhaegar's political maneuvers trying to replace his father, does Ashara play a role in this effort? She dances with Brandon and Ned and is this a way in which Rhaegar is trying to send someone to make contact with the Northern camp to see if they will support his call for a council? We don't know, but we have enough experience with the female characters in Martin's work to know that it isn't out of character for him to have them with much more going on behind flirtatious, damsel in distress motifs. On 9/5/2018 at 5:35 AM, The Map Guy said: Your theory and other theories gives Ashara a political agenda and baby swapping capabilities...I just don't see that. Ashara is just a poor tragic girl who lost her stillborn child, her lover, and her brother. Ashara has purple eyes like Dany as Barristan suggested, but that is because Dany has seen the same thing. Dany also lost her stillborn child, her lover, and her two brothers. In regards to the song about the stupid woman jumping out of the tower, and Arya suggesting the woman should of went on a rampage instead...this is where Ashara and Dany differ. Ashara killed herself, but Dany went on a rampage. My answer to this is it is possible you are only seeing the surface of a much more complex character. Far from only being a damsel in distress, Ashara, if my theory is correct, may be getting ready for her own much delayed rampage against her enemies. She is only doing so without the benefit of dragons. Or at least the fire-breathing kind. On 9/5/2018 at 5:35 AM, The Map Guy said: Well no...have you guys ever heard of the Dungeon Sex Theory? Yes, I've heard of it, and debated it in the past. Not a big supporter of the idea Ashara is let in the black cells to have kinky dungeon sex and make little Brandons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bael's Bastard Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 54 minutes ago, SFDanny said: What interests me with this scene is, if we view Harrenhal as a cover for Rhaegar's political maneuvers trying to replace his father, does Ashara play a role in this effort? She dances with Brandon and Ned and is this a way in which Rhaegar is trying to send someone to make contact with the Northern camp to see if they will support his call for a council? We don't know, but we have enough experience with the female characters in Martin's work to know that it isn't out of character for him to have them with much more going on behind flirtatious, damsel in distress motifs. Interestingly, since we know that Brandon faced and fell to Rhaegar during the Harrenhal Tourney, likely after the evening of the feast marking the opening of the tourney and the dancing that occurred there, Brandon would have presumably had to ransom his horse and armor from Rhaegar. Assuming Brandon didn't just kiss his horse and armor goodbye, or send someone else to ransom it in his place, I would love to know what occurred during that conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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