Ashara, post Harrenhal possibilities

[SFDanny]

7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I don't think it would necessarily be changing loyalties. Is informing the king of actual plots against him "feeding paranoia"?  I know that Barristan says that the rot in Aerys's reign began with Varys, but Yandel's account shows us that Aerys had begun to spiral before Varys ever set foot on Westerosi soil.

And we know what kind of potential "traitors" Varys points out to those in power.

Varys covered his mouth with his hand. "You are very cruel to say so. One last matter. Lady Tanda gave a small supper last night. I have the menu and the guest list for your inspection. When the wine was poured, Lord Gyles rose to lift a cup to the king, and Ser Balon Swann was heard to remark, 'We'll need three cups for that.' Many laughed . . ."

Tyrion raised a hand. "Enough. Ser Balon made a jest. I am not interested in treasonous table talk, Lord Varys."

Tyrion was clever enough not to act on such news. Aerys would have had the man arrested. And worse. And we know that this kind of information was among the stuff reported to Aerys by Varys:

His Grace's growing madness had become unmistakable by that time. From Dorne to the Wall, men had begun to refer to Aerys II as the Mad King. In King's Landing, he was called King Scab, for the many times he had cut himself upon the Iron Throne. Yet with Varys the Spider and his whisperers listening, it had become very dangerous to voice any of these sentiments aloud.

Varys's power - in Westeros - did originate with Aerys, that is completely true. But that doesn't mean that Varys informing the king of Rhaegar's plot was an attempt to grow even more powerful and rich. I think the fact that Varys in 281 AC did exactly what he was hired to do - that is, informing the king of the plotting going on against him - is sometimes neglected. Rhaegar, we have reason to believe, was plotting against his father, That Varys, should he discover clues to this plot, would reported it to the king, should not have been a surprise to Rhaegar.

Which is also part of the reason as to why I find Barristan's claim (as reported by Stannis) so interesting, and I certainly hope we will learn much and more about Aerys's court during the final years of his reign. Because it might give us an answer to the question of what the relationship between Varys and Rhaegar was. 

As we used to say when I was a young lad, "just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you."
 

Aerys is paranoid, but it doesn't start with Varys's whispers in his ear. And, yes, sometimes Varys tells Aerys of important plots against him and his power. That's especially true of Rhaegar's plot at Harrenhal. So, no, I don't think it is surprising at all that Varys informs Aerys of Rhaegar's plot at Harrenhal. But when I wrote about our favorite little eunuch "changing loyalties" I was speaking of him changing loyalties by helping Rhaegar and/or Elia against Aerys's wish to hold their children hostage. What I meant to convey was my doubt this happened and my disbelief that either Rhaegar or Elia would trust Varys unless they had no other choice. That Varys would make the offer I find much less problem believing, as long as it suited his aims.

You see, I take it as a given that Varys's motives are what his says it is:

Quote

"And just as you let me believe that you were mine. Tell me, Lord Varys, who do you serve?"

Varys smiled thinly, "Why, the realm, my good lord, how ever could you doubt that? I swear it by my lost manhood. I serve the realm, and the realm needs peace." (AGoT 666)

My only quibble is that I think Varys spells "the realm" as "V-A-R-Y-S."

RT, I really don't disagree with anything you wrote above. Varys may well think his plots and his manipulations are what's best for the realm. He even might actually be right. Allowing the paranoid Aerys run loose without the direction Varys feeds him via his whispered accusations might be worse for the realm than we know it was with his guidance. Although, that is kind of hard to imagine given the descent into madness we see described during Aerys's reign.

7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

You and me both!

Absolutely!

7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

One question that arises if Rhaegar and Elia tasked Ashara with keeping Aegon safe, and Varys joining in the plan only after both Rhaegar and Elia had died, is this: Why would Ashara (Lemore) agree to lie to Aegon about how the plot went down? Why let the child believe that it was Varys who had rescued him?

Here we are assuming Aegon is really Aegon, right? It is not my favorite of the last two choices I gave, but it is a possibility. In which case, I would say because it is important for Varys and Illyrio to have the boy in their debt. If Ashara is alone with Aegon, and wants to restore him to the throne, then she needs powerful friends to hide him until the time is right, and to bring his supporters together. It could be as simple as that is Varys and Illyrio's price for doing as they did.

7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Which brings us to the question: When did Ashara conceive? When did she give birth? Did she conceive during Harrenhal, when she "turned to Stark"? Or, when she was "dishonored" at the same tourney?  Or, did she become pregnant only later, and give birth not in mid-282 AC, but closer to late 283/early 284 AC, considering Barristan tells us she committed suicide "shortly after" her daughter had been stillborn? What time period does Barristan consider to be short?

Harrenhal might very well have been the place where she conceived a child, although that would most likely contradict Barristan's assessment (or, the time period of slightly more than a year is considered a short time period in his mind, in which case, no issue is present). Or not, if indeed her suicide quickly followed the birth of her daughter.

All a long way of saying that she uncertainty there is (to us readers) about when Ashara was pregnant. Because even if she had given birth around the time of Jon's birth, according to Barristan, Ashara gave birth to a daughter. (Do we have any reason do doubt that information?) Knowing that she had given birth to a girl, why would the Starfall garrison believe she had given birth to a son instead?

It would also, I suppose, entirely depend on where she gave birth.  However, I consider Starfall to be the most likely location at the moment.

I lean strongly to Ser Barristan's words meaning that Ashara turned to a "Stark" at the tourney at Harrenhal and had an affair with him. I also believe that "Stark" to be Brandon. I've posted before about the politics of Harrenhal, and I think what starts as Ashara trying to uncover the feelings of the northmen about Rhaegar's offer turns into more than just an attraction to the handsome young lordling. However, this Stark is playing a different game. He, and Rickard, have no interest in replacing Aerys with Rhaegar, and he is, after all, already betrothed to Catelyn the daughter of Lord Whent's sworn liege lord. That Brandon carries on an affair at Harrenhal with anyone is a scandal given Winterfell's promise, but to do so with a lady companion of Princess Elia is beyond the pale. When Brandon rejects Rhaegar's proposal, probably while also rejecting Ashara, the scandal breaks. It is an interesting idea that he could do so under the cover of paying for his horse and armor.

Selmy is an eye witness to the tourney. His knowledge is quite probably reliable for at least the surface details, so that he knows Ashara turned to a Stark is likely what most people there know and gossip about. His knowledge of Ashara's "dishonor" is also likely something widely known at the court. I also think he believes it was Brandon who is the Stark in question. I can't imagine his thoughts about Ned would be what he says to Daenerys if he believed Ned dishonored Ashara. That doesn't mean the details of a stillborn daughter are reliable, especially if we think it likely this takes place away from King's Landing and Dragonstone. The news from Starfall might be a mishmash of truth and lies. But I don't think it likely that Brandon would be conceiving a child with Ashara anyplace else after the tourney. Especially not in the black cells of the Red Keep. If a child is conceived about the same time as Robb and Jon, it certainly isn't with the dead Brandon as the father.

In short, I think we agree on the likelihood of most of this, although I may have thrown in some baggage to go along with these assumptions that you don't think likely. Brandon as the father of Ashara's stillborn daughter born in mid-282 AC in Starfall is my bet.

[Bael's Bastard]

I think the most glaring issue with the claim that Varys smuggled Aegon out of KL before the sack is his own continued presence in KL leading up to the sack, when he would have been suspected if anyone found out. He never could have assumed that nobody would notice that it was a different child, and never could have assumed that someone would destroy the baby's face in the sack and make it impossible to tell. Unless it was a last moment switch, and Varys himself smashed the baby's face, it seems more of a risk than Varys ever would have accepted upon himself, whether or not Elia would have ever trusted him with Aegon's life.

[SFDanny]

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I think the most glaring issue with the claim that Varys smuggled Aegon out of KL before the sack is his own continued presence in KL leading up to the sack, when he would have been suspected if anyone found out. He never could have assumed that nobody would notice that it was a different child, and never could have assumed that someone would destroy the baby's face in the sack and make it impossible to tell. Unless it was a last moment switch, and Varys himself smashed the baby's face, it seems more of a risk than Varys ever would have accepted upon himself, whether or not Elia would have ever trusted him with Aegon's life.

We know he is in King's Landing right before the sack because Jaime tells us he counsels Aerys to not open the gates to the Lannisters. We know he is in King's Landing when Robert arrives for his coronation. It doesn't leave a lot of time to smuggle Aegon personally across the Narrow Sea, does it? For that part to be true, he has to have someone else do the trip.

[Ygrain]

6 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I think the most glaring issue with the claim that Varys smuggled Aegon out of KL before the sack is his own continued presence in KL leading up to the sack, when he would have been suspected if anyone found out. He never could have assumed that nobody would notice that it was a different child, and never could have assumed that someone would destroy the baby's face in the sack and make it impossible to tell. Unless it was a last moment switch, and Varys himself smashed the baby's face, it seems more of a risk than Varys ever would have accepted upon himself, whether or not Elia would have ever trusted him with Aegon's life.

The very contrary.  Unless Varys was totally in the dark about the wildfire plot, which I find rather difficult to believe, that's what he should have believed - that the fire would destroy everyone and everything, so he didn't have to look for any substitute and he could have smuggled out comfortably any number of people who could have gone into hiding afterwards. 

[Bael's Bastard]

2 hours ago, Ygrain said:

The very contrary.  Unless Varys was totally in the dark about the wildfire plot, which I find rather difficult to believe, that's what he should have believed - that the fire would destroy everyone and everything, so he didn't have to look for any substitute and he could have smuggled out comfortably any number of people who could have gone into hiding afterwards. 

That doesn't sound plausible to me in light of Varys's continued presence in King's Landing at Aerys's side counseling him as late as his decision to open the gate, which indicates to me he either didn't know about the plot (which I also find unlikely), or had some reason not to worry about it succeeding.

[Ygrain]

1 minute ago, Bael's Bastard said:

That doesn't sound plausible to me in light of Varys's continued presence in King's Landing at Aerys's side counseling him as late as his decision to open the gate, which indicates to me he either didn't know about the plot (which I also find unlikely), or had some reason not to worry about it succeeding.

However, we don't know about Varys' whereabouts after counselling Aerys. He might have been keeping an eye on Aerys to make an expeditious leave once the order was given, perhaps keeping a ship at the ready, and when Aerys was Jaime'd, he simply returned in time to hail our new king Robert.

We're missing quite a lot of information here :-(

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I think the most glaring issue with the claim that Varys smuggled Aegon out of KL before the sack is his own continued presence in KL leading up to the sack, when he would have been suspected if anyone found out. He never could have assumed that nobody would notice that it was a different child, and never could have assumed that someone would destroy the baby's face in the sack and make it impossible to tell. Unless it was a last moment switch, and Varys himself smashed the baby's face, it seems more of a risk than Varys ever would have accepted upon himself, whether or not Elia would have ever trusted him with Aegon's life.

Varys continued to stick around in KL after he smuggled Tyrion out of the castle, too. He doesn't need to do such things all by himself. Not to mention that the babe didn't have to leave immediately - perhaps it was hidden for weeks beneath the castle? - or he may have arranged the thing in the fortnight between Trident and Sack. There was ample time there to do something like that - and opportunity, too, considering that Aerys wouldn't have focused most of his time on the grandson he had just passed over.

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

That doesn't sound plausible to me in light of Varys's continued presence in King's Landing at Aerys's side counseling him as late as his decision to open the gate, which indicates to me he either didn't know about the plot (which I also find unlikely), or had some reason not to worry about it succeeding.

In light of the way Varys killed Tywin in ASoS (by using both Jaime and Tyrion as his pawns) one can easily enough that Varys also used Jaime to prevent the wildfire plot (and kill Aerys). Once the point of no return has been reached the mad man definitely had to go. He could not possibly allow him to burn the city down.

The Aegon plan also makes no sense at all if the Iron Throne, the Red Keep, and King's Landing are gone. Robert wouldn't have rebuilt that place. Instead he would have ruled from Storm's End or he had build a new capital in the Stormlands or the Riverlands, or the Reach.

And without all the symbols of Targaryen power gone a feigned boy with pale hair (or even a real boy) wouldn't have been of much use.

One of the main reasons why the Targaryen cause is still alive in Westeros is the fact that the kings continue to reside in their castle and their city, not to mention that they sit on their throne. We get this again and again with the dragon skulls, the Targaryen armor, the Targaryen imagery in the Red Keep, etc.

[Rufus Snow]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys continued to stick around in KL after he smuggled Tyrion out of the castle, too.

Evidence?

He was in KL the night Tywin died; he was in KL the night Kevan died. In between.... 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In light of the way Varys killed Tywin in ASoS (by using both Jaime and Tyrion as his pawns) one can easily enough that Varys also used Jaime to prevent the wildfire plot (and kill Aerys). Once the point of no return has been reached the mad man definitely had to go. He could not possibly allow him to burn the city down.

The Aegon plan also makes no sense at all if the Iron Throne, the Red Keep, and King's Landing are gone. Robert wouldn't have rebuilt that place. Instead he would have ruled from Storm's End or he had build a new capital in the Stormlands or the Riverlands, or the Reach.

And without all the symbols of Targaryen power gone a feigned boy with pale hair (or even a real boy) wouldn't have been of much use.

One of the main reasons why the Targaryen cause is still alive in Westeros is the fact that the kings continue to reside in their castle and their city, not to mention that they sit on their throne. We get this again and again with the dragon skulls, the Targaryen armor, the Targaryen imagery in the Red Keep, etc.

True - no way Varys missed the wildfire... and also I would agree with 'no throne, no kingdom'. If KL & the IT had gone up in a puff of green smoke, then Bobby's war would be far from over and we'd be back to "Seven kingdoms" in a flash... The former Targaryen kingdom would cease to exist, and without that, why bother with Aegon or fAegon or Viserys or Dany???

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

Evidence?

He was in KL the night Tywin died; he was in KL the night Kevan died. In between.... 

I meant that if Varys didn't accompany Tyrion to Illyrio there is no reason to believe he would have to accompany a baby to Illyrio.

But there is actually some evidence that Varys didn't leave KL in AFfC/ADwD. There is a pre-ADwD SSM where people asked where Varys went and whether he accompanied Tyrion, and George then indicated the man still had things to do in KL. Back in the day my 'location' was 'Supposedly somewhere in King's Landing' - I only changed that to 'Definitely somewhere in King's Landing' after ADwD.

9 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

True - no way Varys missed the wildfire... and also I would agree with 'no throne, no kingdom'. If KL & the IT had gone up in a puff of green smoke, then Bobby's war would be far from over and we'd be back to "Seven kingdoms" in a flash... The former Targaryen kingdom would cease to exist, and without that, why bother with Aegon or fAegon or Viserys or Dany???

Not sure we would get back to seven independent kingdoms - rather to a new symbol of power and a new capital under the royal House Baratheon. Robert had powerful allies.

The problems with the Targaryen cause would have been the loss of the Targaryen symbols of power as well, of course, the eternal stain on their name thanks to Aerys killing hundreds of thousands of people in the wildfire inferno. After that, things should have been over for good for the dragons.

In that sense, the whole idea that Varys would have wanted Aerys to burn the city and kill the false Aegon in the process of that makes no sense at all.

Not to mention that the way Varys is described makes it very unlikely he would have approved of the wildfire plot or would have wanted/allowed that Aerys actually did burn KL.

[Rufus Snow]

21 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure we would get back to seven independent kingdoms - rather to a new symbol of power and a new capital under the royal House Baratheon. Robert had powerful allies.

True - it seems more likely that Ned, Hoster and Jon would stick with Robert, but Tywin, Mace, Doran and Balon would most likely want to secede, maybe even forming an alliance to counter the others...

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

In that sense, the whole idea that Varys would have wanted Aerys to burn the city and kill the false Aegon in the process of that makes no sense at all.

Not to mention that the way Varys is described makes it very unlikely he would have approved of the wildfire plot or would have wanted/allowed that Aerys actually did burn KL.

Agreed, Varys has his faults, but I don't think he'd let the barbecue go ahead. In fact, I'm pretty sure he had ways to stop it, and was probably relieved when Jaime stepped in as it meant Varys didn't have to act against his king in order to protect the realm...

[SFDanny]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys continued to stick around in KL after he smuggled Tyrion out of the castle, too. He doesn't need to do such things all by himself. Not to mention that the babe didn't have to leave immediately - perhaps it was hidden for weeks beneath the castle? - or he may have arranged the thing in the fortnight between Trident and Sack. There was ample time there to do something like that - and opportunity, too, considering that Aerys wouldn't have focused most of his time on the grandson he had just passed over.

 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I meant that if Varys didn't accompany Tyrion to Illyrio there is no reason to believe he would have to accompany a baby to Illyrio.

Very true, but obviously a child of less than two years old can't be stuffed in a barrel, if you expect him to survive the journey. So the question is who accompanied Aegon across the Narrow Sea? If we are to believe this occurred, and more importantly, if the supporters of a Targaryen restoration are to believe this story, that person or persons becomes very important.

As to the plan being hatched in the two weeks between the Trident and the Sack, I think we can shorten the opportunity to starting when Elia is denied the ability to take her children to Dragonstone along with Rhaella, Viserys, and Ser Willem. When that is exactly is unknown, but it is only then we get Elia in the extremis position of having to possibly trust Varys.

[SFDanny]

6 hours ago, Ygrain said:

However, we don't know about Varys' whereabouts after counselling Aerys. He might have been keeping an eye on Aerys to make an expeditious leave once the order was given, perhaps keeping a ship at the ready, and when Aerys was Jaime'd, he simply returned in time to hail our new king Robert.

We're missing quite a lot of information here :-(

We are indeed! I do think we can make some educated guesses about his whereabouts for some of this time. It is hard to believe that after the fighting breaks out between the Lannisters and the Gold Cloaks that any members of Aerys's small council aren't taken captive or killed by the Lannisters, or by Ned's forces when they enter the city. Perhaps Varys finds a hole to hide in, but at some point he comes out and begs for a pardon. Presumably, speaking of his fidelity to the realm, and how much he can help Robert in dealing with remaining Targaryen sympathizers. He isn't walking around King's Landing in the open. The longer he remains hidden would seem to speak against his trustworthiness. My guess is that Varys spends most of the time from the Lannister entry into King's Landing to Robert's arrival under guard by either Ned or Tywin's orders. Whatever he supposedly does about Aegon almost certainly must take place before the gates are opened. Not only in effecting a switch, but also in getting Aegon out of the city.

[Lord Varys]

11 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

True - it seems more likely that Ned, Hoster and Jon would stick with Robert, but Tywin, Mace, Doran and Balon would most likely want to secede, maybe even forming an alliance to counter the others...

With KL burning to the ground everybody should join Robert. Why should anyone stick to the dragons in such a scenario? And why would even people like Doran stick to them - who would have lost his sister and their children thanks to Aerys' madness, not Tywin's cruelty? Don't see the Tyrells sticking to such guys, either.

9 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Very true, but obviously a child of less than two years old can't be stuffed in a barrel, if you expect him to survive the journey. So the question is who accompanied Aegon across the Narrow Sea? If we are to believe this occurred, and more importantly, if the supporters of a Targaryen restoration are to believe this story, that person or persons becomes very important.

Some birds/mice could have cared for him, just as the boy did care for Tyrion. Tyrion only had to go into a barrel to leave the ship so that nobody in Pentos outside Illyrio's manse sees the dwarf. A child is more easier to hide, not to mention that nobody would have been looking for it - unlike Tyrion after Joffrey and Tywin.

9 hours ago, SFDanny said:

As to the plan being hatched in the two weeks between the Trident and the Sack, I think we can shorten the opportunity to starting when Elia is denied the ability to take her children to Dragonstone along with Rhaella, Viserys, and Ser Willem. When that is exactly is unknown, but it is only then we get Elia in the extremis position of having to possibly trust Varys.

That would have been after the Trident when Aerys decided to send Viserys and Rhaella to Dragonstone.

[Bael's Bastard]

23 hours ago, SFDanny said:

We know he is in King's Landing right before the sack because Jaime tells us he counsels Aerys to not open the gates to the Lannisters. We know he is in King's Landing when Robert arrives for his coronation. It doesn't leave a lot of time to smuggle Aegon personally across the Narrow Sea, does it? For that part to be true, he has to have someone else do the trip.

My point is that it doesn't seem like a risk Varys would take, to take part in switching baby Aegon, and stick around openly in King's Landing afterwards. The whole thing just sounds like a story made up in hindsight, after everything had already worked in favor of making up such a story, rather than beforehand, when there would have been actual risks, the sort of risks Varys doesn't appear to take where his own life and well being is concerned.

I would be more inclined to believe that Varys himself had the baby's head smashed in after it's death to create options for himself later (though I believe Gregor himself did it), than to believe that he actually switched the true child and/or smuggled the true child out before Gregor got there. He never could have counted on everything going down as it did. But after the fact, now he has the ability to invent a story about the survival of Prince Aegon.

Interestingly, when Gregor admits to killing Elia and her child, it is Elia's head he claims to have smashed in, while leaving unclear how he killed Aegon. It certainly seems in Gregor's character to smash a child's head against a wall, but I just noticed that he wasn't actually clear on what he did to Aegon.

"Elia of Dorne," they all heard Ser Gregor say, when they were close enough to kiss. His deep voice boomed within the helm. "I killed her screaming whelp." He thrust his free hand into Oberyn's unprotected face, pushing steel fingers into his eyes. "Then I raped her." Clegane slammed his fist into the Dornishman's mouth, making splinters of his teeth. "Then I smashed her fucking head in. Like this." As he drew back his huge fist, the blood on his gauntlet seemed to smoke in the cold dawn air. There was a sickening crunch. Ellaria Sand wailed in terror, and Tyrion's breakfast came boiling back up. He found himself on his knees retching bacon and sausage and applecakes, and that double helping of fried eggs cooked up with onions and fiery Dornish peppers. (ASOS: Tyrion X)

[Bael's Bastard]

17 hours ago, Ygrain said:

However, we don't know about Varys' whereabouts after counselling Aerys. He might have been keeping an eye on Aerys to make an expeditious leave once the order was given, perhaps keeping a ship at the ready, and when Aerys was Jaime'd, he simply returned in time to hail our new king Robert.

We're missing quite a lot of information here :-(

It's true we don't know Varys's whereabouts, and are missing a lot of information, but Aerys had wildfire placed all over King's Landing. No place could be assumed to be safe if the wildfire plot was a threat to succeed. I just don't see Varys sticking around when wildfire is being placed all around King's Landing, at least all the way up to the Lannisters arriving at the gates, and counseling Aerys not to open them, unless he had reason to believe it had no chance of success. It seems highly unlikely that Jaime and Chelsted knew of the plot but Varys didn't. Which leads me to believe that Varys did not believe the wildfire plot could succeed.

[Bael's Bastard]

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys continued to stick around in KL after he smuggled Tyrion out of the castle, too. He doesn't need to do such things all by himself. Not to mention that the babe didn't have to leave immediately - perhaps it was hidden for weeks beneath the castle? - or he may have arranged the thing in the fortnight between Trident and Sack. There was ample time there to do something like that - and opportunity, too, considering that Aerys wouldn't have focused most of his time on the grandson he had just passed over.

We have no idea whether or not Varys continued to stick around in KL between helping Tyrion and killing Pycelle and Kevan. That is just an assumption on your part. What is certain is that Varys has not openly shown himself in KL since helping Tyrion, as he openly showed himself in KL while continuing to advise Aerys up to the opening of the gates, and as he openly showed himself to the new regime. Having no idea how everything would play out, it seems implausibly risky for Varys to have helped switch and smuggle Aegon out before the sack. Yes, Varys has the ability to sneak around, and to sneak others around, but he isn't the sort to risk his life to do so. No matter how preoccupied Aerys may or may not have been with other things, Varys never could have assumed beforehand that he would be blessed with circumstances that would prevent anyone from being able to tell whether the baby was Aegon or not. I think there is all around far too much risk to Varys for him to have made any such move, and only after the fact can he use the muddy waters he has to work with to concoct this story.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In light of the way Varys killed Tywin in ASoS (by using both Jaime and Tyrion as his pawns) one can easily enough that Varys also used Jaime to prevent the wildfire plot (and kill Aerys). Once the point of no return has been reached the mad man definitely had to go. He could not possibly allow him to burn the city down.

The Aegon plan also makes no sense at all if the Iron Throne, the Red Keep, and King's Landing are gone. Robert wouldn't have rebuilt that place. Instead he would have ruled from Storm's End or he had build a new capital in the Stormlands or the Riverlands, or the Reach.

And without all the symbols of Targaryen power gone a feigned boy with pale hair (or even a real boy) wouldn't have been of much use.

One of the main reasons why the Targaryen cause is still alive in Westeros is the fact that the kings continue to reside in their castle and their city, not to mention that they sit on their throne. We get this again and again with the dragon skulls, the Targaryen armor, the Targaryen imagery in the Red Keep, etc.

I have an extremely hard time believing that Varys counted on Jaime to prevent the wildfire plot. Varys is an excellent manipulator, but I think you give him far too much credit for things he couldn't possibly have taken for granted. But whatever the case, I think Varys had good reason to believe the wildfire plot was no threat to his life, or else he would have been as far from KL as he could get.

[Lord Varys]

23 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

My point is that it doesn't seem like a risk Varys would take, to take part in switching baby Aegon, and stick around openly in King's Landing afterwards. The whole thing just sounds like a story made up in hindsight, after everything had already worked in favor of making up such a story, rather than beforehand, when there would have been actual risks, the sort of risks Varys doesn't appear to take where his own life and well being is concerned.

If we discuss the baby swapping thing in earnest then the whole thing wasn't some overly convoluted 'create the perfect king and put him to the throne after a period of civil wars' plot but rather merely a precaution to hide the real Aegon from both Aerys II and the rebels. Considering that Aerys II was clearly not willing to allow Elia and his grandchildren to leave KL (because he felt he needed them as hostages against Dorne, especially after the Dornishmen supposedly betrayed Rhaegar at the Trident) it is very obvious why Elia/Varys could go the same road as Cersei before the Blackwater - simply getting the prince out of the city without keeping a fake child in the castle.

By swapping Aegon Aerys II - and later, possibly, the rebels - would not know (immediately) that the real Aegon was gone. But, of course, eventually Elia would have to tell everyone that the child she had was not, in fact, Rhaegar's son, or else the fake Aegon would be seen as the real one.

In such a scenario - a scenario where Elia and/or her children are not killed during the Sack (or in such a way which allows people who knew Aegon to still recognize him) - the later 'Aegon plan' of Varys and Illyrio would have never worked.

Which means this plan was only made after the fact - either from scratch after the real Aegon's death or because they conveniently had the real Aegon already and the fake had died in a way which allows for reasonable doubt that the real Aegon died.

If Varys was just hiding a child for some time before it would be returned to the mother (or she reunited with him) then there is really no reason to assume he would accompany that child.

But since Varys knew about the wildfire plot and everything else and since he apparently was in KL as late as Tywin's arrival we can be sure he either had an exit strategy or he had no problem dying with his king. But if he had an exit strategy then the real Aegon might have been still beneath the castle, in Varys' own apartments - after all, if Varys can save himself, he surely can take a two-year-old with him, then, no?

23 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I would be more inclined to believe that Varys himself had the baby's head smashed in after it's death to create options for himself later (though I believe Gregor himself did it), than to believe that he actually switched the true child and/or smuggled the true child out before Gregor got there. He never could have counted on everything going down as it did. But after the fact, now he has the ability to invent a story about the survival of Prince Aegon.

That idea seems to be technically impossible. Aegon was killed in Maegor's Holdfast, and there are no secret tunnels in that place aside from the king's own escape route. Which means Varys couldn't have gotten to Aegon's corpse unseen. And even if had been able to get there unseen, it is very likely that Tywin's men would have been with the corpses the entire time.

3 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

We have no idea whether or not Varys continued to stick around in KL between helping Tyrion and killing Pycelle and Kevan. That is just an assumption on your part. What is certain is that Varys has not openly shown himself in KL since helping Tyrion, as he openly showed himself in KL while continuing to advise Aerys up to the opening of the gates, and as he openly showed himself to the new regime. Having no idea how everything would play out, it seems implausibly risky for Varys to have helped switch and smuggle Aegon out before the sack. Yes, Varys has the ability to sneak around, and to sneak others around, but he isn't the sort to risk his life to do so. No matter how preoccupied Aerys may or may not have been with other things, Varys never could have assumed beforehand that he would be blessed with circumstances that would prevent anyone from being able to tell whether the baby was Aegon or not. I think there is all around far too much risk to Varys for him to have made any such move, and only after the fact can he use the muddy waters he has to work with to concoct this story.

I'm not sure what the issue with that is. Do you think Varys would have been in any danger after swapping the children? If so, from whom? Aerys II would be the only possible danger, but that would only make sense if Aerys II actually had any means to tell the two children apart - or to suspect that something was amiss there. Do we have any reason to believe that he did that? I don't think so.

How Varys ended up showing himself to the new regime is at this point a complete mystery. We don't know what he did during the Sack - making it even a possibility he took the real Aegon only hours before the deaths of Elia and the children, using the chaos after Tywin's betrayal to make his (final?) offer to Elia.

But considering Varys' modus operandi one assumes he was only caught because he wanted to be caught by the new regime, and he only revealed himself to Ned/Robert/whoever after he had been sure that they would not kill him.

In fact, it might be that Varys gave them crucial information they all wanted to have - information about Lyanna, say, to Ned.

3 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I have an extremely hard time believing that Varys counted on Jaime to prevent the wildfire plot. Varys is an excellent manipulator, but I think you give him far too much credit for things he couldn't possibly have taken for granted. But whatever the case, I think Varys had good reason to believe the wildfire plot was no threat to his life, or else he would have been as far from KL as he could get.

Oh, well, we don't know much about Varys in those days, but we do know that Jaime must have been around the man much while he was protecting Aerys if Jaime told the truth that Varys was constantly whispering in the king's ear. That would have been ample time and opportunity for Varys to feed Jaime ideas, too. We also do not know who told Jaime where Rossart was going, nor do we know whether Varys was with Aerys when Aerys told Jaime's messenger to tell Jaime to come back with his father's head.

Varys is smart enough to know how to break Tyrion - or make him do things he didn't want to do at first. I mean, the man basically gets Tyrion to murder his own father. You cannot overestimate that kind of thing.

[Ygrain]

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

It's true we don't know Varys's whereabouts, and are missing a lot of information, but Aerys had wildfire placed all over King's Landing. No place could be assumed to be safe if the wildfire plot was a threat to succeed. I just don't see Varys sticking around when wildfire is being placed all around King's Landing, at least all the way up to the Lannisters arriving at the gates, and counseling Aerys not to open them, unless he had reason to believe it had no chance of success. It seems highly unlikely that Jaime and Chelsted knew of the plot but Varys didn't. Which leads me to believe that Varys did not believe the wildfire plot could succeed.

I don't see why Varys shouldn't believe that KL would burn down. To me, there are two possible scenarios (with Varys definitely knowing): either he planned a quick and safe excape route, which he would take the moment Aerys gave the order, or he planned to dispose of Rossart the way Jaime did, only Jaime acted sooner. IMHO, the escape route would involve a ship either into the bay, or upriver, as the stashes were placed around the city but not on the water like during the Battle of Blackwater. I can also see Varys staying around pretty long, the kind of scheme he is carrying out requires quite some balls

[SFDanny]

11 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

My point is that it doesn't seem like a risk Varys would take, to take part in switching baby Aegon, and stick around openly in King's Landing afterwards. The whole thing just sounds like a story made up in hindsight, after everything had already worked in favor of making up such a story, rather than beforehand, when there would have been actual risks, the sort of risks Varys doesn't appear to take where his own life and well being is concerned.

I'm sorry, I thought I had shown before why I agreed with you, but I also was trying to show how difficult it is to see how Varys could have actually done the smuggling out of Aegon from Aerys's control. Each time one looks at it and tries to understand the whys and hows of doing this it gets more difficult to explain. And, yes, I agree Varys does not like taking risks with his own life. We have abundant evidence that proves this.

11 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I would be more inclined to believe that Varys himself had the baby's head smashed in after it's death to create options for himself later (though I believe Gregor himself did it), than to believe that he actually switched the true child and/or smuggled the true child out before Gregor got there. He never could have counted on everything going down as it did. But after the fact, now he has the ability to invent a story about the survival of Prince Aegon.

Interestingly, when Gregor admits to killing Elia and her child, it is Elia's head he claims to have smashed in, while leaving unclear how he killed Aegon. It certainly seems in Gregor's character to smash a child's head against a wall, but I just noticed that he wasn't actually clear on what he did to Aegon.

"Elia of Dorne," they all heard Ser Gregor say, when they were close enough to kiss. His deep voice boomed within the helm. "I killed her screaming whelp." He thrust his free hand into Oberyn's unprotected face, pushing steel fingers into his eyes. "Then I raped her." Clegane slammed his fist into the Dornishman's mouth, making splinters of his teeth. "Then I smashed her fucking head in. Like this." As he drew back his huge fist, the blood on his gauntlet seemed to smoke in the cold dawn air. There was a sickening crunch. Ellaria Sand wailed in terror, and Tyrion's breakfast came boiling back up. He found himself on his knees retching bacon and sausage and applecakes, and that double helping of fried eggs cooked up with onions and fiery Dornish peppers. (ASOS: Tyrion X)

I think it is hard to believe that Ser Gregor and Ser Amory, who are sent there to kill Elia and her children, left their corpses for any length of time which would enable Varys, or his agents, to have access to them. They would take the bodies straight to Tywin to prove their completion of their mission. So, once again, we agree. I do think Ser Gregor killed the child he found with Elia. And then he raped and killed her.

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I'm sorry, I thought I had shown before why I agreed with you, but I also was trying to show how difficult it is to see how Varys could have actually done the smuggling out of Aegon from Aerys's control. Each time one looks at it and tries to understand the whys and hows of doing this it gets more difficult to explain. And, yes, I agree Varys does not like taking risks with his own life. We have abundant evidence that proves this.

I don't think this would have been difficult. Yes, Elia and the children were kept in Maegor's Holdfast, and there no tunnels in the walls there, but we know from Sansa's example that hostages can get out of there and walk around the castle. All Varys needed to do was to make contact with Elia (say, when she was summoned into the king's presence or via some servant) and then have her bring the child and meet him at a secure location.

If Littlefinger can smuggle Sansa out of the Red Keep with the help of Dontos Hollard then Varys sure as hell could have swapped a toddler with the help of the boy's mother.

One should also not underestimate the amount of real power Varys may have wielded as the king's trusted Master of Whisperers. People may have been very aware that antagonizing Varys leads to you facing the champion of House Targaryen the next day.

The fact that Varys apparently remained in KL despite the wildfire plan is a problem in any scenario - after all, it is considerable distance from the Red Keep to the harbor, and if Aerys had commanded to first ignite the wildfire beneath the Red Keep for some mad reason, Varys wouldn't have gotten anywhere.

But then - as I said above, it is not unlikely that Varys used/counted on Jaime to prevent the wildfire plan, and/or had other means in place to prevent it. It shouldn't have been that difficult considering that only real maniacs would have really wanted to burn the city they all lived in. In the end, most likely, only Aerys II himself and Rossart and some of the other pyromancer leaders. One assumes that the average pyromancers just did as they were told (Hallyne has no idea what his predecessors did during Aerys' days) and the servants moving the jars were not told what they were for or what the guys in charge intended to do with them.

All Varys would have needed to do is to have men in place to prevent the execution of such plans. Say, whoever Aerys may have sent down to ignite the wildfire beneath the Red Keep may have met a similar fate as Kevan and Pycelle did in ADwD.