Ashara, post Harrenhal possibilities

[Bael's Bastard]

@SFDanny

Though we may disagree on a number of things, I thank you for one of the most rewarding discussions I've been a part of in a long time. More and more, I have come to view Elbert Arryn as one of the most interesting pieces of the mysteries leading up to Robert's Rebellion. This discussion has given me even more to consider about what role he played, and how he was used, leading up to Jon's decision to raise his banners.

[Pukisbaisals]

On 9/3/2018 at 6:11 AM, SFDanny said:

My suggestion then is this. It is much more likely that Rhaegar and Elia attempt this plot without Varys than with him. They have the motive and the means, I think, to do so. Rather I find it much more likely that Varys finds out about this plot after the fact (say the Pisswater Prince's father shows up wanting more Arbor Gold and Varys questions him rather sharply.) Varys involvement seems only barely plausible as a last ditch effort of Elia's after Rhaegar's death when Aerys refuses them passage to Dragonstone. Even under these extremely last minute circumstances it seems unlikely that Elia would turn to Varys. 

I think possibility that Raegar and Elia tried to protect their son by swapping him with his body double  is a very plausible one. But I agree with Ygrain that such baby swap more likely took place on  Dragonstone.

Elia was described as intelligent lady. When Arys summoned her to King‘s Landing or just sent after her and children she had to understand what it meant. And she had to be afraid. So I think she used opportunity to swap babies while she still wasn‘t in total control of Arys and Varys. Maybe she and Rhaegar discussed this possibility in advance or maybe it was her own spontaneous decision (in this case Rhaegar probably only learned about the swap after he came to KL). In any case,  Ashara likely was Elia‘s most trusted confidant.

Princess Rhaenys was presented at court in KL, but Aegon had never been there, so swap couldn‘t be very risky.

I also think that Elia allowed Varys to swap child one more time in KL, just because otherwise he would suspect her ruse. So the story about Pisswater prince maybe has some truth in it.

It doesn‘t mean I believe Young Griff is Aegon‘s double from Dragonstone. Varys most likely realized he was tricked, if not instantly, then in few years, when he saw child growing. Or maybe he never intended to support Aegon‘s claim at all and only wanted take control over him.

I can‘t resist but speculate what happened to real Aegon if this swap took place. Elia would have wanted to send him to Dorne. Or  to Essos, where Martells had many connections. But maybe she wasn't able to do this or didn‘t want to take a risk.  Maybe boy was left on Dragonstone.

There is also possibility, that she got help from one of Narrow sea  houses.

In this case Velaryons look pretty good choice. They are Valyrian looking Targaryen loyalists. Interestingly, Aurane Waters is of close enough  to Aegon‘s age and he looks like Rhaegar. It seems the guy also has dragonlike ambitions – he stole Cersei‘s dromonds and became a pirate king of Stepstones. This reminds me of prince Daemon Targaryen, another  king of the Stepstones and the Narrow sea.

Aurane's grey green eyes don‘t fit the picture. Besides, Rhaegar or Elia had no reason to trust Velaryons because they supported  Aerys against crown prince:

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Chief amongst the Mad King's supporters were three lords of his small council: Qarlton Chelsted, master of coin, Lucerys Velaryon, master of ships, and Symond Staunton, master of laws. The eunuch Varys, master of whisperers, and Wisdom Rossart, grand master of the Guild of Alchemists, also enjoyed the king's trust. Prince Rhaegar's support came from the younger men at court, including Lord Jon Connington, Ser Myles Mooton of Maidenpool, and Ser Richard Lonmouth. The Dornishmen who had come to court with the Princess Elia were in the prince's confidence as well, particularly Prince Lewyn Martell, Elia's uncle and a Sworn Brother of the Kingsguard. But the most formidable of all Rhaegar's friends and allies in King's Landing was surely Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning.

Of course, Lucerys Velaryon could change his mind in the face of Aerys‘es madness, or maybe he just pretended being loyal to Aerys. Or he, as master of ships,  was chosen by Aerys to bring Elia to KL, only at some moment he came to some understanding with her. But all these options are purely speculative.

There is one place, closer to Dragonstone than Dorne or Essos, ruled by Targaryen loyalist house – Tarth.

This passage from ACoK drew my attention to house Tarth:

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Brienne said, "I remember a woman . . . she came from some place across the narrow sea. I could not even say what language she sang in, but her voice was as lovely as she was. She had eyes the color of plums and her waist was so tiny my father could put his hands around it. His hands were almost as big as mine." She closed her long, thick fingers, as if to hide them.

It was childhood memory of Brienne. There was a lady with violet eyes in Tarth. Valyrian features are not so rare in Essos, especially in Lys, but somehow Brienne remember singer’s purple eyes, but not her silver golden hair which would be easier to notice.

There were only two persons with violet eyes and dark hair mentioned in all books: Aegor Rivers and Ashara Dayne.

Tarths  are known to have recent Targaryen ancestry which could only mean that one of Egg’s sisters married to this house. So likely Rhae or Daella was a grandmother of lord Selwyn Tarth. This also means his great grandmother was Dyanna Dayne (and great great grandmother was Mariah Martell). This makes Selwyn third cousin to Ashara or to her father. This is distant kinship, but of course both Selwyn and Ashara were aware of it. I think this kinship could have encouraged Ashara to turn to lord Selwyn in need.

There is also other more mysterious relation between houses Dayne and Tarth. They share the same morning-evening-star symbolism, I mean Morn and Evenfall Hall and Starfall, Darkstar and Evenstar, falling stars, sun and moon on their shields, Dawn, Sword of the morning and morningstar, the one Brienne used to chastise her mockery suitors during melee at Bitterbridge. Only I am not sure if this symbolism is related to real communication between houses.

During the visit of the plum-eyed woman Brienne had to be at least three years old, that means event took place in 283 or later.

If lord Selwyn indeed helped to hide the prince in 282, Ashara could come later to take him away, most likely to Essos.

Of course all this could be (and maybe even more likely) about Lyanna’s child business, not Elia’s.

And it seems it wasn’t just business – a picture from Brienne's memory implies Selwyn and plum-eyed lady were lovers. Which makes me wonder if Brienne could have younger (possibly half Dayne) sibling.