Northern Lords declaring for Stannis then refusing to march south

[Free Northman Reborn]

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

He didn't move at all to save the fat drunkard. He just sat there and waited.

If you don't want to do a duty, then you don't have to. You cannot be forced to take a crown upon your head in this world. It wasn't Stannis' duty to challenge his nephew Joffrey, insisting that a belief he had no proof for was 'the truth', nor was it his duty to kill or challenge Renly. A man who truly did not want the crown wouldn't have taken it. He would have been glad that Renly wanted to be king.

The idea that the man has some strange 'duty' to step in for his brother under all circumstances is just more than a little over the top.

One can buy Stannis' explanation that he never actually tried to take the crown by means of plotting or murder or anything like that - but he is not honest to Davos or himself when he says he doesn't want that crown. He might not like all the stupid things that come with kingship, but very much likes finally being the guy in charge. The one who can force the world to do what he wants, for a change.

Not to mention he also knows his brother was a usurper. While there are still Targaryens out there, his own claim is as flimsy as that of Robert, yet he still insists the law is on his side, etc. when 'the law' definitely didn't make Robert king - nor Joffrey or Renly.

If he wins, the Northmen should be his. And Stannis is not the kind of guy who is not going to force them in line. They will do as he commands should he win. And one hopes he finally gives some speech then along the lines - 'I don't give a rat's ass about your petty struggles and ambitions. I don't care about you, your families, or your winter provisions. There are ice demons up there. You will give me your men and we will defeat those creatures together or die in the attempt. (Somebody hand me the salt. I need more salt in my ridiculously cold ice water.)'

I know this message is often held up as gospel, but is that really the truth about Stannis’s stated aims?

My impression is that he went North for a single battle, to defeat Mance Rayder’s siege of the Wall, and then use the North as a staging ground to rebuild his forces to take the Iron Throne.

The castles at the Wall are intended to be his strongholds in the interim, until he gains Winterfell to become his new command centre, while at the same time strengthening his Northern border and finding a place to shelter some of his men.

But even now, his plan with the 20k sellswords is not to man the Wall with them, but to complete his takeover of the North and relaunch his campaign to take the Iron Throne.

I have not seen an indication that he intends to wait for Spring to do so. He wants to unite the North, add his 20k sellswords to that force and then move on his enemies to the South.

[Here's Looking At You, Kid]

13 hours ago, Ellard Stark said:

The Battle in the Ice is perhaps one the best written plot setup we have to look forward to. And I eagerly cannot wait. But with all the possibilities and variables on the table, but in the end, With no supernatural events occurring(dragons, ice zombies, ned's stark head being reattached, etc), the Northerners will look at Stannis and be like "u cray its 20 foot blizzard out here and we can't see 3 foot front of us and you want us to march south all the way to KL with you"?

I prefer the Battle of Fire.  The personalities present in the East are much more colorful and entertaining.  On to your idea.  The north are not about to march to the south in their human form.   They will get wighted by the Others and then they will march to the south.  The armies of ice.  They will make it as far as The Trident where they will meet their demise.  Dragon fire will put them to final rest.  That is something to look forward to.

[Blackfish Tully]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

bit of a risk, considering Stannis is trying to protect the Wall. A six month (at least) journey to the Twins and back is a pointless quest considering taking the Twins would need an army much larger than 20k and supplies to feed an army that large. 

 

The Freys are not going anywhere vengeance can wait till summer, but the idea that the remaining Northern army is going to abandon the North with thousands of wildlings on the wrong side of the wall makes little sense

i think trying to protect the wall from WW and a massive zombie army  with a few thousand Northmen is a bigger risk then taking the Iron Throne and returning to the Wall with the full might of Westeros at his back . If it's all about risk then why is he taking a massive risk in attacking Roose Botlon instead of just staying and protecting the wall?

I think you underestimate how much the Northmen want revenge against the Freys , every House lost men at the Red Wedding and the Freys killed their King and Ned Stark's widow so the same Northmen who are braving freezing temperatures and massive snowfall to save Ned's daughter are not going to stop at Winterfell.

[Blackfish Tully]

2 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

This. I suspect the Freys will be dealt with before Stannis could get there, anyway.

But he has no intention of going south. People mistake Stannis - he does not want the throne. It is his duty to take it, as he sees it, but saving the kingdom must come first.

Even if it takes all winter to save the kingdom, the throne will have to wait 'til spring...

The only way to save the kingdom is to unite it and then throw the full weight of Westeros against the WW , even if he wins the Battle of Ice how many men could he possible have left ? i doubt it's enough to fight everything that's coming from north of the wall.

[Bernie Mac]

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

i think trying to protect the wall from WW and a massive zombie army  with a few thousand Northmen is a bigger risk then taking the Iron Throne and returning to the Wall with the full might of Westeros at his back .

How does he get the full might of Westeros if he is stuck outside the Twins during winter?

Robb, with a 20k army during summer when he could live off the land, saw how futile it would be to try and take the Twins. Why would Stannis waste his time on it? 

I get that the reader wants to see the Freys defeated, but Stannis has more pressing issues. 

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

If it's all about risk then why is he taking a massive risk in attacking Roose Botlon instead of just staying and protecting the wall?

It is abundantly clear that he never considered the trip and taking of Winterfell(if he does take it) to be so costly or time consuming but given the time he has wasted it is hard to see him abandoning the Wall to the walkers by taking his entire army south on a journey that, given the weather, the distance and size of the opposition, could well take more than a year. 

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

I think you underestimate how much the Northmen want revenge against the Freys ,

No, I don't, but the people who's mantra is "winter is coming" know a thing to two about patience as well as what the true obstacle is. 

They simply don't have the manpower or supplies to go South, not when doing so gambles their homes and families. 

It has been a year since the red wedding, they can afford to wait a few more for their revenge, but they are not in a position to get it now. 

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

every House lost men at the Red Wedding and the Freys killed their King and Ned Stark's widow so the same Northmen who are braving freezing temperatures and massive snowfall to save Ned's daughter are not going to stop at Winterfell.

except they did nothing till Stannis, in person, came and begged their assistance. They did nothing till Stannis turned up so the idea that they will be making demands lacks credibility. 

 

[rotting sea cow]

9 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

My impression is that he went North for a single battle, to defeat Mance Rayder’s siege of the Wall, and then use the North as a staging ground to rebuild his forces to take the Iron Throne.

The castles at the Wall are intended to be his strongholds in the interim, until he gains Winterfell to become his new command centre, while at the same time strengthening his Northern border and finding a place to shelter some of his men.

But even now, his plan with the 20k sellswords is not to man the Wall with them, but to complete his takeover of the North and relaunch his campaign to take the Iron Throne.

I have not seen an indication that he intends to wait for Spring to do so. He wants to unite the North, add his 20k sellswords to that force and then move on his enemies to the South.

Indeed. His last instructions to Justin Massey are clear: "In case I die, do whatever possible to sit my daughter in the IT". So, it is still a priority for him and probably even more so in the face of the threat of the Others. In his mind only an united Westeros can defeat that threat.

The question is whether he will have enough time to organize an expedition. He will need to deal with a lot of problems: The Stark succession crisis, the political order in the North, the wildings, the food shortages, the collapse of the NW, the remaining ironborn, the sellswords and winter.

[Lord Varys]

There is no indication that Stannis wants to take the Iron Throne before he has dealt with the Others. Shireen is not going to defeat the Others. She is a child. But as his daughter she is Stannis' heir and successor.

It might be that Stannis might consider another expedition down south once he has those 20,000 sellswords. But his talks with Jon made it clear he would come back to the Wall and man those empty castles and prepare for the true enemy once the Boltons are dealt with.

The idea that he can challenge anyone down south with 5,000+ men is insane. And while those Northmen who want to die in winter might march with him, he is not likely to get any support in the Riverlands or elsewhere for such an adventure. Not in winter.

In fact, one wonders whether there will be any sellswords willing to fight in Westeros in that particular season. If he has a lot of gold they might answer his call, but the Wall is much farther in the North than Braavos - not to mention the Disputed Lands.

[Blackfish Tully]

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

except they did nothing till Stannis, in person, came and begged their assistance. They did nothing till Stannis turned up so the idea that they will be making demands lacks credibility. 

 

the North was dealing with disaster after disaster , Ned Stark being killed , Iron Born invasion , thousands of Northern soldiers being killed at the Red Wediing , the rest of the Starks being wiped out or missing , Bolton taking over so they had no time to get anything organized. Most of the Northmen understand that this will be there last winter and if Stannis defeats Bolton when would they have a better chance then now to get revenge on the Freys ? They have one of the best military leaders in Westeros in Stannis and most of the Northen Houses will be together in Winterfell plus Stannis's men so if they do not use that opportunity to attack the Freys when will they have another one ? 

 

58 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that he can challenge anyone down south with 5,000+ men is insane. And while those Northmen who want to die in winter might march with him, he is not likely to get any support in the Riverlands or elsewhere for such an adventure. Not in winter.

 

When has Stannis ever worried about the odds ? he's attacking Winterfell (a castle he cannot take ) in the middle of winter when he is outnumbered by Bolton and had to be talked out of a disastrous  attack on the Dreadfort . Stannis is a delusional fanatic who would assume that once he goes South the Riverlords would bend the knee to him and eventually the rest of Westeros would follow . As for support in the Riverlands , if Stannis is going to be killing Freys he will have no problem getting their support and the support of any Northmen still in the Riverlands . 

 

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

How does he get the full might of Westeros if he is stuck outside the Twins during winter?

Robb, with a 20k army during summer when he could live off the land, saw how futile it would be to try and take the Twins. Why would Stannis waste his time on it? 

I

Winterfell would be just as hard to take as the Twins but Stannis is still marching on it . I would think that Stannis would be expecting help from the Riverlords when he gets to the Riverlands and we know that it is a powder keg down there just waiting to go off. 

 

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

It is abundantly clear that he never considered the trip and taking of Winterfell(if he does take it) to be so costly or time consuming but given the time he has wasted it is hard to see him abandoning the Wall to the walkers by taking his entire army south on a journey that, given the weather, the distance and size of the opposition, could well take more than a year. 

 

frankly we don't have any idea what he thinking about as far as time frame , he seems to be playing the long game with Massey recruiting a Sellsword army and i just have a hard time believing that he's given up on the Iron Throne and also that he would not try to get the rest of Westeros to help him fight the WW . 

 

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

No, I don't, but the people who's mantra is "winter is coming" know a thing to two about patience as well as what the true obstacle is. 

 

 

I have a hard time believing that the man who said the following and the men who chanted "Blood and battle" would agree with you . The Northmen are half crazy so to say they would act rationally is giving them to much credit . Just replace Bolton with Frey and you will have the same speech repeated in Winterfell . 

 

"Winter is almost upon us, boy. And winter is death. I would sooner my men die fighting for the Ned's little girl than alone and hungry in the snow, weeping tears that freeze upon their cheeks. No one sings songs of men who die like that. As for me, I am old. This will be my last winter. Let me bathe in Bolton blood before I die. I want to feel it spatter across my face when my axe bites deep into a Bolton skull. I want to lick it off my lips and die with the taste of it on my tongue."

"Aye!" shouted Morgan Liddle. "Blood and battle!" Then all the hillmen were shouting, banging their cups and drinking horns on the table, filling the king's tent with the clangor.

[Lord Varys]

The problem is just that there is no textual evidence at this point that Stannis wants to march down south after he has taken Winterfell. There are no plans for that kind of thing at this point. What plans are there is that Stannis is going to return to the Wall to take possession of the Nightfort. And there is also no evidence for this idea that Stannis intends to unite Westeros against the threat of the Others. He wants to save his people to show them that he is the rightful king, the man who deserves the crown.

There is certainly going to be another war council/strategic discussion after the Boltons are dealt with and they have received new good information on the situation in the south. He might start another campaign there if things look very favorably to him. But if they don't I don't see him doing that kind of thing. Those Northmen willing to die can do so while manning the Wall.

[Blackfish Tully]

37 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The problem is just that there is no textual evidence at this point that Stannis wants to march down south after he has taken Winterfell. There are no plans for that kind of thing at this point. What plans are there is that Stannis is going to return to the Wall to take possession of the Nightfort.

I don't remember any conversations with Stannis about what happens after Winterfell but i may have forgotten them but i would be interested in a quote about that . 

 

42 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

 

There is certainly going to be another war council/strategic discussion after the Boltons are dealt with and they have received new good information on the situation in the south. He might start another campaign there if things look very favorably to him. But if they don't I don't see him doing that kind of thing. Those Northmen willing to die can do so while manning the Wall.

His Northmen are going to be demanding he go to the Riverlands , Manderly for one has probably developed a taste for Freys , and Stannis will want to at the minimum take Moat Calin from the Boltons and after that see what the situation is in the South before he gives up and goes to the Wall . So far everything is quiet at the Wall and as long as that is the case he will keep trying to get as much men as he can before he gives up and goes back to the Wall . 

[Lord Varys]

13 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

I don't remember any conversations with Stannis about what happens after Winterfell but i may have forgotten them but i would be interested in a quote about that . 

Don't have the books with me right now, but it goes along the lines that Stannis tells Jon he expects him to man all the castles until the year is out or he'll take them, they are finishing the Nightfort as his residence and seat, something that's supposed to have bearing on the story (it is a plot line that was introduced in ASoS, before the five-year-gap, and since the Black Gate is still there this is not something that's not going to be pursued).

It is also quite clear that Stannis starts a campaign to crush the Boltons, he does not leave CB with the intention to crush the Boltons and then take the Iron Throne. He only marches against the Boltons because they are a knife in his back he has to remove if he wants to continue his fight against the Others (and the remaining wildlings who are very likely to launch another attack via the Bridge of Skulls under the Weeper).

If Stannis had intended to deal with both Roose and Tommen he would have said so when he left the Wall.

And even if he were to go on another campaign - he would first return to Castle Black to restore order there after the Jon assassination thing and take Melisandre, Selyse, and Shireen with him. If he wants to take the Iron Throne he would have to want them at his side rather than having them wait at the end of the world.

13 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

His Northmen are going to be demanding he go to the Riverlands , Manderly for one has probably developed a taste for Freys , and Stannis will want to at the minimum take Moat Calin from the Boltons and after that see what the situation is in the South before he gives up and goes to the Wall . So far everything is quiet at the Wall and as long as that is the case he will keep trying to get as much men as he can before he gives up and goes back to the Wall . 

Once Roose and Ramsay are dead the North will bend the knee to Stannis. He won't have to go to Moat Cailin himself. Whoever is there (if anyone is still there) will come to him. But, sure, he is very likely to put a sizable garrison there to protect his flank against whoever might try to the take the North from him.

There is no sign that Stannis wants to first take the throne and then continue to help the NW. That would be silly. He knows of the real danger, and he cannot afford to waste whatever men he has left in a fight against tens of thousands men from the West, the Reach, and the Stormlands. Not to mention Dorne and the Vale.

And the Twins don't have to be taken by Stannis or the Northmen. As soon as the hostages - which Jaime is his utter stupidity has commanded to be sent to KL - are freed, the Riverlords will rise up and put the Freys down. Some traitors in the castles will open the gates or the frozen river will enable the attackers to sneak, etc. There is no need to draw Stannis and the Northmen into this plot line.

We also have to keep in mind that there should be at least two - perhaps three - battles be fought in the Winterfell area. First this thing involving the Freys and the Manderlys, then the second Bolton attack on the village under the command of Ramsay (if Theon is right about that) and then finally the battle/struggle/whatever that's going to enable Stannis to take Winterfell.

Many men can die in those battles. I expect the Freys will be put down rather easily, especially if the Manderlys attack them from behind. Ramsay is somewhat stupid, too, but one imagines that Roose will send seasoned men with him, so that this might become a more difficult struggle. And taking Winterfell could be very costly if it were to be taken by storm (one expects there to be betrayal on the inside, too, or a plan to sneak into the castle unseen). But even then there should be considerable fighting in the inside in light of the fact that the castle is very large.

This is all going to take time and chapters - time in which the plot in the Riverlands is going to be advanced, too. It seems Cat is going to target Riverrun next, and should then move quickly to take the Twins.

Not to mention that the news about Aegon will have a strong effect on the Targaryen loyalists in the Riverlands. They won't wait for Stannis, nor care about him.

[Tagganaro]

15 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

have you read ADWD ? the Northmen are crazy and frankly all the men dying on Stannis's march to Winterfell are Southerners and also it's not as cold or snowy down South so it would be a vacation for the Northmen .  . Also  Stannis will not have to demand they go South with him instead they will demand that Stannis leads them to the Riverlands for revenge on the Freys .

 

Ser Corliss Penny gave the clan chief an incredulous look. "Do you want to die, Wull?"

That seemed to amuse the northman. "I want to live forever in a land where summer lasts a thousand years. I want a castle in the clouds where I can look down over the world. I want to be six-and-twenty again. When I was six-and-twenty I could fight all day and fuck all night. What men want does not matter.

"Winter is almost upon us, boy. And winter is death. I would sooner my men die fighting for the Ned's little girl than alone and hungry in the snow, weeping tears that freeze upon their cheeks. No one sings songs of men who die like that. As for me, I am old. This will be my last winter. Let me bathe in Bolton blood before I die. I want to feel it spatter across my face when my axe bites deep into a Bolton skull. I want to lick it off my lips and die with the taste of it on my tongue."

have you?  Did you read my post?  Again, Northmen are bound by Ned and the Starks, they ain't looking to go South to put Stannis on the Throne, and once they have "ned's little girl" I'm not even sure they're willing to go after the Freys though that makes much more sense.  But you can be damn sure even if they go after the Freys they're not going to KL to help put Stannis on the Throne.  

[Lost Melnibonean]

12 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

The only way to save the kingdom is to unite it and then throw the full weight of Westeros against the WW , even if he wins the Battle of Ice how many men could he possible have left ? i doubt it's enough to fight everything that's coming from north of the wall.

Sounds like a job for a promised prince or a special snowflake. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Indeed. His last instructions to Justin Massey are clear: "In case I die, do whatever possible to sit my daughter in the IT". So, it is still a priority for him and probably even more so in the face of the threat of the Others. In his mind only an united Westeros can defeat that threat.

The question is whether he will have enough time to organize an expedition. He will need to deal with a lot of problems: The Stark succession crisis, the political order in the North, the wildings, the food shortages, the collapse of the NW, the remaining ironborn, the sellswords and winter.

Excellent point, although it belongs in spoiler tags. 

[Blackfish Tully]

9 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

have you?  Did you read my post?  Again, Northmen are bound by Ned and the Starks, they ain't looking to go South to put Stannis on the Throne, and once they have "ned's little girl" I'm not even sure they're willing to go after the Freys though that makes much more sense.  But you can be damn sure even if they go after the Freys they're not going to KL to help put Stannis on the Throne.  

The Northmen are very prickly about their honor and if they bend the knee to Stannis and declare him their King then they will go anywhere he wants them to especially if he just helped them destroy the Freys . They are not just going to abandon him in the Riverlands . 

[Blackfish Tully]

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

have you?  Did you read my post?  Again, Northmen are bound by Ned and the Starks, they ain't looking to go South to put Stannis on the Throne, and once they have "ned's little girl" I'm not even sure they're willing to go after the Freys though that makes much more sense.  But you can be damn sure even if they go after the Freys they're not going to KL to help put Stannis on the Throne.  

They are risking their lives going to Winterfell to save "Ned's little girl" so why would you think they would not go to the Riverlands to get revenge on the people who murdered Ned's wife and son (who also happened to be their king ) and thousands of other Northmen in violation of guest rights , frankly i'm surprised that you guys seem to be completely ignoring how powerful the desire for revenge and justice that the Northmen would be feeling against the Freys . Every Northern House lost men at the Red Wedding and some of the more powerful ones i.e Mormount , Manderly, Umber  lost family members so i have a hard time seeing them ignoring their desire for revenge . 

[Tagganaro]

4 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

They are risking their lives going to Winterfell to save "Ned's little girl" so why would you think they would not go to the Riverlands to get revenge on the people who murdered Ned's wife and son (who also happened to be their king ) and thousands of other Northmen in violation of guest rights , frankly i'm surprised that you guys seem to be completely ignoring how powerful the desire for revenge and justice that the Northmen would be feeling against the Freys . Every Northern House lost men at the Red Wedding and some of the more powerful ones i.e Mormount , Manderly, Umber  lost family members so i have a hard time seeing them ignoring their desire for revenge . 

14 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

The Northmen are very prickly about their honor and if they bend the knee to Stannis and declare him their King then they will go anywhere he wants them to especially if he just helped them destroy the Freys . They are not just going to abandon him in the Riverlands . 

These Northmen do not care about the Iron Throne and the situation in the South.  They have a winter and their own shit to deal with and I think the idea they would agree to march south with Stannis to put him on a throne they care nothing about is wishful thinking, if not outright delusional.  As I said, they may be willing to go after the Freys but the very quote you posted has them giving their mission purpose of "saving Ned's little girl" with the added bonus of killing a Bolton.  How does this translate into "lets die to put someone on a throne we care nothing about?"  I don't doubt that everyone in the North wants revenge on the Freys, I just doubt the ability or willingness to leave their home in the North with winter coming on to get involved in the Riverlands and then the Southron lands.

But I do tend to agree with @Lord Varys after reading this thread more and reexamining the chapters with Stannis/Jon that Stannis may have no immediate intent to march South and perhaps does intend to just unite the North against the Others before then turning his attention south.

 

 

[Blackfish Tully]

Just now, Tagganaro said:

These Northmen do not care about the Iron Throne and the situation in the South.  They have a winter and their own shit to deal with and I think the idea they would agree to march south with Stannis to put him on a throne they care nothing about is wishful thinking, if not outright delusional.  As I said, they may be willing to go after the Freys but the very quote you posted has them giving their mission purpose of "saving Ned's little girl" with the added bonus of killing a Bolton.  How does this translate into "lets die to put someone on a throne we care nothing about?" 

 

 

i don't think i ever said that the Northmen are marching South to put Stannis on the Iron Throne , if i did i mispoke but what my argument has been is that the Northmen will want to go South for revenge on the Freys and not for Stannis to get on the Iron Throne but if they destroy the Freys with Stannis's help and Stannis then wants them to keep going to Kings Landing then at that point they would be honor bound to follow him . 

[Blackfish Tully]

7 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

.

But I do tend to agree with @Lord Varys after reading this thread more and reexamining the chapters with Stannis/Jon that Stannis may have no immediate intent to march South and perhaps does intend to just unite the North against the Others before then turning his attention south.

 

 

so the argument from many on this thread is that Stannis will not have enough men to go South and try to win the Iron Throne but at the same time he will have enough men to stop an army of WW and zombie's. Will 10,000 (if that ) Northmen be enough to stop the WW army? 

[Lord Varys]

@Tagganaro

The clansmen look for a good way to die. If they don't die in the village or at Winterfell, they might be willing to die in any other noble cause. Many of those men do not want to return back to their homes, just as those Northmen who accompanied both Roderick Dustin and Cregan Stark down south during the Dance did not want to return back home to eat the scarce winter provisions of their families.

Putting Stannis on the Iron Throne would be as noble a cause as fighting for Rhaenyra or Aegon III.

I don't think Stannis will insist that they follow him in such a campaign because I think he doesn't want to fight such a campaign right now, but I'm pretty sure they would follow him if he did command it.

It is a strange idea that the clansmen are not 'Stannis' men' now. He came to them and visited them in their keeps and homes, the first king to do so since, well, the Conquest, and they are his men now. And one can assume that the entire North is going to follow suit if Stannis takes Winterfell. He'll have done what the Northmen themselves were too craven or too incompetent to do - putting down the Boltons.