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Northern Lords declaring for Stannis then refusing to march south


Ellard Stark

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3 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

SO FAR, for Stannis to restore Edmure, he'd need to fight the Lannisters, and he's thousands of leagues away from doing that, whether they've reached the Rock or not yet.

The Lannister's are not the power they used to be, they had 2 armies crushed by Robb and now they are dealing with the Golden Company in the Stormlands and the Tyrells are dealing with the Iron Born in the Reach so neither will have much help to offer the Freys .

 

3 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

. And if Brynden rescues Edmure, how would that equate to Stannis restoring House Tully?

Did i say that ? Stannis going to the Riverlands attacking the Frey would be how he could restore House Tully .

 

3 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

 Notwithstanding that the last sighting of the BWB had them heading towards the Neck? Do we have any reason to think the Blackfish would side with Stannis?

 

Last sighting ? we have no idea where the BWB are, they seem to be everywhere in the Riverlands so why would they not be looking to attack the Lannisters and save Edmure?

If Stannis is killing Freys then Blackfish would definitely side with him .

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4 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

All in all it would be a risky adventure for Stannis, which he doesn't need when the Others are in his rear ready to give him a rough going over with their frozen popsicles.

we don't know when the Other's will attack , doesn't make sense that Stannis keep trying to unify Westeros so he can much stronger when they do attack ? For all we know it may be several years before the Others attack , it's been thousands of years since the last attack .

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2 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

we don't know when the Other's will attack , doesn't make sense that Stannis keep trying to unify Westeros so he can much stronger when they do attack ? For all we know it may be several years before the Others attack , it's been thousands of years since the last attack .

By the same reasoning it may be tomorrow when they attack.

It doesn't make sense for Stannis to go south NOW. He needs the North to be stable so he can defend the Wall against 'the enemy he was born to fight', the enemy he knows is on the move already.

You make it sound a simple thing to conquer a kingdom. It's a gamble - Stannis may have his power broken, to continue fighting in the south weakens the realm. It's enough of a gamble trying to unify the north at this stage, trying to unify the whole realm risks letting the others in through the back door. They are more powerful a threat than the ironborn, yet draining the north of men gave Balon his opportunity. Now would be a terrible time to lead the Northmen south again.

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Stannis is aware of the true threat and will be heading back North to the Nightfort. The Wall will be reinforced with supplies from the Iron Bank + the all food Jon ordered from the Braavosi to get through Winter

The Night's Watch will be left  completely decimated after the rushed coup led against Jon, and it's likely aftermath..which i predict to be all out slaughter between Tormund's Wildlings at Castle Black & the Black Brothers.  Some of those loyalists of Jon will side with Tormund in the fighting

Melisandre's & her queens-men may play a role  in the impending violence but they are too few, so  we're finally going to see just how powerful Mels magic is

The other Strongholds along the Wall won't be aware of what's happened until messengers are sent, or the Wildlings come for the children taken from them as hostages.

If someone has references to the forces on either side currently at CB as at the end of book 5 we can take a guess of whats likely to happen.

Stannis will come back and sort their shit out and make them swear fealty as the 999th LC.

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On 9/7/2018 at 5:19 PM, Lord Varys said:

This is Stannis Baratheon we are talking about. This man wouldn't have taken men in his army who put forth conditions like 'We are going to help you to free Deepwood and Winterfell, but you, who lay claim to the Iron Throne of Westeros, are neither our liege nor our king.'

If they had done that, they wouldn't have accompanied Stannis. Nor would he have suffered such men in his army. He would have rather tried to put them down where they lived, one keep at a time.

You also do see how Stannis treats and interacts with his own men. The clansmen would not be better treated, considering they are not even proper lords.

In the best of times, sure.  But Stannis is desperate and needs some troops.  But this is besides the point anyway.  I doubt things were as upfront as the Northmen openly declaring every single one of their intentions, that's not how human interactions work.  Stannis went to them and asked for their support in retaking Winterfell from the Boltons- that is all we know at the moment.

And I'd add that we are meant to question what exactly is going on with the clansmen in light of 2 of them randomly showing up at the Wall (something Jon explicitly questions in the text) as well as what you would think would be knowledge of Bran's survival (I suppose it's possible the Liddle didn't tell anyone or it's possible he ended up being murdered by Ygritte when Jon escapes from the wildlings, but IIRC the descriptions don't really match ((correct me if I'm wrong)).

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What 'agenda' should that be? The majority of the North was never on board with that 'independence agenda'. That was the brainchild of Jon Umber, who isn't the sharpest knife in the box. There are very few Northmen at Riverrun when Robb is proclaimed king.

The Northmen fought and died for Rhaenyra just because Jacaerys Velaryon visited White Harbor and Winterfell, and because Rhaenyra later wrote Cregan Stark letters. Stannis is with them right now, in an hour of dire need. Why shouldn't they die for him?

 

I would think in this world of ASOIAF, where we see how proud and independent the Northmen are, that they are concerned with the condition of the North in general.  And anyone can see that helping a Southron "king" march South to retake the Iron Throne, something they dont' care about at alll, is antithetical to that.

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Because this would mean Roose Bolton doesn't actually have so much as one ally in the North. That would be ridiculous. Barbrey controls both Barrowton and the Rills. If she was truly in camp Stark she could have found ways to put both Ramsay and Roose down. They were her guests for a considerable time, and as such under her power. It is not that difficult to arrange something like the Red Wedding, no?

The whole point of the Red Wedding is that it is not that difficult to arrange no, but that it's extremely difficult to execute because of guest right/honor/common human decency in an indecent world.  In any case Barbrey is a complicated character because she has certain loyalty to Roose and hatred towards Ramsay and Ned.  I for one read a lot into her trip with Theon into the crypts where it very much seems like she's confirming some kind of theory about Bran and Rickon hiding out there with her focus on the missing swords.

And yeah...Roose doesn't have a whole lot of allies in the North which isn't remotely ridiculous considering everything we know about him.  That's why his major allies are not Northmen.

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Overall, I think people subscribe to many such overcomplicated theories for two reasons:

To pass the time, and to imagine a scenario one would like to read about in the next book.

One could make sociological studies about the way fans start to run amok in their imagination after all the real clues and hints have discussed to death.

Think back about all the things people saw when they had only ASoS or only AFfC.

Deepwood could have been retaken easily, especially while Asha was away. Nobody laid claim to ruined Winterfell, either. Nobody moved against Torrhen's Square or Moat Cailin until Roose was coming back.

The hostages didn't stop Mors Umber when he decided to join Stannis, so that's no big deal, apparently. 

Or one just wishes they were involved in such plots. It is very clear they would all like to see the Boltons and Freys dead.

 

Again, not the topic of the thread, but there is a TON of evidence supporting some kind of plot outside of the obvious plotting we know is going on with Glover and Manderley.  To your Umbers point, it is clear they are also playing a very complicated game between Mors and Whoresbane, so yeah, the hostages were a big deal and I don't see what they changes that.  

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He did not come to burn heart trees nor has he burned a single heart tree in the North. People were not falling over themselves to declare for Stannis, true, but we are talking about him after he has retaken Winterfell. The picture Jon paints of the Northmen is that they will accept Stannis if he proves his mettle. And he is doing that right now. One sees this effect after he has freed Deepwood. We don't need a conspiracy to explain why men searched him out and joined him. 

Yes, besides for all the Heart Trees/Weirwoods he had the wildlings burn up (you can be sure word of that has gotten around) he hasn't yet tried to burn a heart tree.

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Stannis is a Baratheon. His people are the people of the Seven Kingdoms, from Dorne to the Wall.

:D You can't honestly believe this right?

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Stannis did save the Northmen's asses from the Mance and his wildlings. That is just a fact and every honest person in the North will have to admit that this is true. And character-wise Stannis seem to be the kind of person the Northmen would actually easily enough accept as king. He is blunt, hard, and means business. In a sense he is even 'starkier' than all the living Starks - if one sees the true Starks in the old Kings of Winter, and not in Ned's children who are pretty soft (Arya excluded, of course).

If there is a place where Stannis could actually hope to be loved it would be the North.

 

This is all great, I agree with this (besides for the "starkier" stuff which doesn't make sense, I guess Tywin is the most Starky person in the books?).  So what?  Does this mean the Northmen are now obligated to support Stannis, no matter what?  That is not how anything works in real life or in these novels especially.  

And again, we may just have a disagreement on Stannis as a character but I think what makes him so compelling is that he will never be loved, and that's really all he wants, but he just has no idea about how to go about getting that love.  

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3 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

 

I would think in this world of ASOIAF, where we see how proud and independent the Northmen are, that they are concerned with the condition of the North in general.  And anyone can see that helping a Southron "king" march South to retake the Iron Throne, something they dont' care about at alll, is antithetical to that.

 

the big question is what happened when Stannis went to visit the Northmen , as Jon said it The clans have not seen a kings since Torrhen Stark bent his knee. Your coming does them honor. Command them to fight for you, and they will look at one another and say, 'Who is this man? He is no king of mine.' " , does this mean that they bent the knee to him ? or did they just agree to help him attack Lord Bolton? If they bent the knee then there is no question that they will follow him if he goes south , their honor would not allow them to betray him by disobeying his orders. Or did they agree to bend the knee if Stannis helped them take Winterfell and save Ned's daughter? 

 

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24 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

In the best of times, sure.  But Stannis is desperate and needs some troops.  But this is besides the point anyway.  I doubt things were as upfront as the Northmen openly declaring every single one of their intentions, that's not how human interactions work.  Stannis went to them and asked for their support in retaking Winterfell from the Boltons- that is all we know at the moment.

Actually, he would have asked them to retake Deepwood Motte then, doing a thing those proud and competent Northmen should and could have done all by themselves a long time ago. But they did not. By the time Stannis left, Roose was not yet in Winterfell.

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And I'd add that we are meant to question what exactly is going on with the clansmen in light of 2 of them randomly showing up at the Wall (something Jon explicitly questions in the text) as well as what you would think would be knowledge of Bran's survival (I suppose it's possible the Liddle didn't tell anyone or it's possible he ended up being murdered by Ygritte when Jon escapes from the wildlings, but IIRC the descriptions don't really match ((correct me if I'm wrong)).

The fact that the clansmen do not make Brandon Stark their reluctant guest is all the confirmation we need that they are not playing some complicated game here. They had never any intention to make Brandon Stark the figurehead in an anti-Bolton movement. They never even informed Robb Stark that his younger brother was still alive.

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I would think in this world of ASOIAF, where we see how proud and independent the Northmen are, that they are concerned with the condition of the North in general.  And anyone can see that helping a Southron "king" march South to retake the Iron Throne, something they dont' care about at alll, is antithetical to that.

What do you mean by that, exactly? How are they more proud or independent than any of the other regions?

The Northmen of the past clearly did care who sat the Iron Throne - Roderick Dustin did, Cregan Stark, and Eddard Stark and Robb Stark most of all.

Also, don't forget how much there is to be gained from helping a man to win a throne. If the Northmen help Stannis to win the Iron Throne they will gain much and more in the process of it. The Manderlys might be finally free to go back to the Mander...

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The whole point of the Red Wedding is that it is not that difficult to arrange no, but that it's extremely difficult to execute because of guest right/honor/common human decency in an indecent world.  In any case Barbrey is a complicated character because she has certain loyalty to Roose and hatred towards Ramsay and Ned.  I for one read a lot into her trip with Theon into the crypts where it very much seems like she's confirming some kind of theory about Bran and Rickon hiding out there with her focus on the missing swords.

There are hints there that she suspects something, sure, but that is not the same as she caring for the Starks. She might just collect evidence that Ramsay publicly lied about the murders of the Stark boys, for instance.

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And yeah...Roose doesn't have a whole lot of allies in the North which isn't remotely ridiculous considering everything we know about him.  That's why his major allies are not Northmen.

Over half of his men at Winterfell are Northmen.

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Again, not the topic of the thread, but there is a TON of evidence supporting some kind of plot outside of the obvious plotting we know is going on with Glover and Manderley.  To your Umbers point, it is clear they are also playing a very complicated game between Mors and Whoresbane, so yeah, the hostages were a big deal and I don't see what they changes that.  

If the hostages were a big deal then Greatjon Umber would be dead by now because Mors Umber is rebelling against the Iron Throne.

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Yes, besides for all the Heart Trees/Weirwoods he had the wildlings burn up (you can be sure word of that has gotten around) he hasn't yet tried to burn a heart tree.

That's the wildlings, not the Northmen. The wildlings are not part of the Seven Kingdoms and they are no friends of the Northmen, either.

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:D You can't honestly believe this right?

Why not? Honestly, Eddard Stark's king was a certain Robert of House Baratheon, no? As a man pretending to be the rightful king of the Seven Kingdoms Stannis Baratheon also considers all people the Seven Kingdoms his people. That's why he tries to save them from the wildlings and the Others, no?

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This is all great, I agree with this (besides for the "starkier" stuff which doesn't make sense, I guess Tywin is the most Starky person in the books?).  So what?  Does this mean the Northmen are now obligated to support Stannis, no matter what?  That is not how anything works in real life or in these novels especially.  

No, it just means that Stannis has more of an edge to him than Ned and his children. Ned and Robb could play the role of 'the lord' but a man like Stannis really lives that thing. And it is that kind of strength the Northmen look to in a king.

I only expect the Northmen who fight with Stannis to actually stick to their word. I expect Manderly to stick to the word he gave to Davos, and I expect the clansmen to stick to Stannis.

I don't think they would follow Stannis into certain death - I just said that I think those men who prefer not to return back home alive would gladly follow Stannis down south - if he were to march. Which I don't think he will. I don't think those Northmen just joined Stannis for personal and conditional reasons.

15 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

the big question is what happened when Stannis went to visit the Northmen , as Jon said it The clans have not seen a kings since Torrhen Stark bent his knee. Your coming does them honor. Command them to fight for you, and they will look at one another and say, 'Who is this man? He is no king of mine.' " , does this mean that they bent the knee to him ? or did they just agree to help him attack Lord Bolton? If they bent the knee then there is no question that they will follow him if he goes south , their honor would not allow them to betray him by disobeying his orders. Or did they agree to bend the knee if Stannis helped them take Winterfell and save Ned's daughter? 

They already follow him. Stannis makes the battle plans, Stannis commands, and the men obey. They don't appear to have some plan of their own.

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11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

They already follow him. Stannis makes the battle plans, Stannis commands, and the men obey. They don't appear to have some plan of their own.

i'm referring more to what happens after they take Winterfell (if they do ) , Have they bent the knee to Stannis or have they just agreed to follow him to restore the Starks? 

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9 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

i'm referring more to what happens after they take Winterfell (if they do ) , Have they bent the knee to Stannis or have they just agreed to follow him to restore the Starks? 

Since the agenda never was to restore the Starks - remember, Stannis said that he'll save Jon's sister if he can - saving 'Arya' is not a priority - I don't think there is any chance that there is such a caveat in their deal. If it were, then we would have heard about it now, especially after they got buried in the snow.

If they were just 'allies' fighting for a common goal under a fixed treaty/pact then the leaders of the clansmen would also be more equal to Stannis. There would be much more negotiation, discussion, and the like. Sort of how Dany had to deal with and placate the captains of the various sellsword companies. But there is nothing of that in ADwD. Instead, Stannis is the guy in charge, and the next in the chain of command are his southron knights, not the clansmen. They come after that.

The clansmen joined Stannis to free Deepwood Motte, not to free Winterfell (which wasn't occupied at that time) nor to restore the Starks.

There is a chance that the Northmen will turn to another leader should Stannis die in the near or foreseeable future. And that might be a moment where Jon Snow could become the de facto ruler of the North, but there is no conspiracy to bring this about, nor is there any hint that Manderly wants to make Rickon Stark a king. The boy is too young and would need a long regency government - and the North is not the place for committee ruling nor a place where one powerful lord can take things into his hands and overshadow the others. A man as fat and craven as Lord Wyman (or as broken a man as Ser Wylis) would never be accepted as Lord Protector in the North.

While Stannis is there he'll be 'the King in the North' - should he be gone there might be a chance for a King Rickon or a King Jon, but not before. But depending on the prominence of the whole Others thing one assumes that by that time the people in the North will actually think before they act - and realize that even while they could crown or proclaim another 'King in the North' it might be wiser not to do this considering that they want/need support from the people down south in the fight against the Others.

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43 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Actually, he would have asked them to retake Deepwood Motte then, doing a thing those proud and competent Northmen should and could have done all by themselves a long time ago. But they did not. By the time Stannis left, Roose was not yet in Winterfell.

ok...and then they went to Winterfell to "save Ned's little girl."  You throw "should" and "could" around a lot for a group of ragtag fighters who probably lack armor and simple weapons for the most part (they are basically like wildlings) ...I doubt taking castles from fighters like the ironborn were much in the cards.  When you consider that even with Stannis we get a small group of ironborn basically destroying the clansmen I see why they wouldn't feel comfortable taking back Deepwood Motte on their own.

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The fact that the clansmen do not make Brandon Stark their reluctant guest is all the confirmation we need that they are not playing some complicated game here. They had never any intention to make Brandon Stark the figurehead in an anti-Bolton movement. They never even informed Robb Stark that his younger brother was still alive.

That one man was not exactly in a position to take on the Reeds and Summer was he?  Do you really think he's gonna go back with an army and try to kidnap his liege lord against his will?  I think it's also provocative that the clansmen haven't told Stannis Bran is alive either.  I agree not telling Robb is weird but perhaps he was killed before they could get any word to him.

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What do you mean by that, exactly? How are they more proud or independent than any of the other regions?

The Northmen of the past clearly did care who sat the Iron Throne - Roderick Dustin did, Cregan Stark, and Eddard Stark and Robb Stark most of all.

Also, don't forget how much there is to be gained from helping a man to win a throne. If the Northmen help Stannis to win the Iron Throne they will gain much and more in the process of it. The Manderlys might be finally free to go back to the Mander...

 

I mean, doesn't the fact that they name Robb King in the North and that they only knelt to dragons kind of speak for itself?  In any case, lets just assume you're correct and they're not any "more proud or independent than any other region."  That doesn't mean that regions don't behave in selfish ways, just like we see of every other house and region.  They are all looking to benefit themselves in the end.  The Manderleys seem to be doing just fine in White Harbor.

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There are hints there that she suspects something, sure, but that is not the same as she caring for the Starks. She might just collect evidence that Ramsay publicly lied about the murders of the Stark boys, for instance.

Again I will repeat she has many reasons to hate Ramsay, and that her loyalty is definitely something we are given to question in that light.  Who knows where her loyalty actually lays?

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Over half of his men at Winterfell are Northmen.

If the hostages were a big deal then Greatjon Umber would be dead by now because Mors Umber is rebelling against the Iron Throne.

 

And over half his men at Winterfell are of questionable loyalty.  Dustin pretty much talks about this when she's telling Theon about Roose.  He knows their loyalty is shaky, that's why he's trying to get rid of at least the Manderleys and Freys and probably a lot more and why he shows fear on his face when he sees them at their throats.

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That's the wildlings, not the Northmen. The wildlings are not part of the Seven Kingdoms and they are no friends of the Northmen, either.

The wildlings and the Northmen share the same exact gods, you think the Northmen are fine with that?  In any case Stannis also burned the Godswood and Heart Tree at Storm's End which is part of the Seven Kingdoms.

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Why not? Honestly, Eddard Stark's king was a certain Robert of House Baratheon, no? As a man pretending to be the rightful king of the Seven Kingdoms Stannis Baratheon also considers all people the Seven Kingdoms his people. That's why he tries to save them from the wildlings and the Others, no?

Stannis is not the Northmen's King or otherwise they would have just declared for him at the start of the war of the 5 kings.  I don't need to quote Greatjon's speech again.  Stannis is not some benevolent selfless do-gooder unlike everyone else in the story...he saves them from the wildlings because he believes it will help him gain the Throne and he had no other options.

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No, it just means that Stannis has more of an edge to him than Ned and his children. Ned and Robb could play the role of 'the lord' but a man like Stannis really lives that thing. And it is that kind of strength the Northmen look to in a king.

Everyone looks for strength in a king...Stannis does not have any particular strength or "edge" that many other lords or kings have.  I would think the Northmen look more for "Does he have a direwolf" in their kings.

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I only expect the Northmen who fight with Stannis to actually stick to their word. I expect Manderly to stick to the word he gave to Davos, and I expect the clansmen to stick to Stannis.

I don't think they would follow Stannis into certain death - I just said that I think those men who prefer not to return back home alive would gladly follow Stannis down south - if he were to march. Which I don't think he will. I don't think those Northmen just joined Stannis for personal and conditional reasons.

 

Again, we don't know what the Northmen's "word" actually is.  And I don't see why you expect them to follow Stannis south.  We will just agree to disagree on that one since we are getting nowhere with it.

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The Northmen seem largely indifferent to Stannis. They have a goal, and he has a goal. And those goals happen to temporarily overlap.

But the Northerners seem a particularly ruthless and pragmatic bunch. They most certainly won’t go gallivanting off South at his beck and call. They might do so for a Stark, though.

Ultimately we all know Stannis is a dead end. And therefore your prediction will be tied to your philosophy related to the North. If, like Lord Varys, you see the entire North as pretty much a dead end bound for insignificance and annihilation, then of course you would support having the Northmen go haring off to die alongside the doomed Stannis.

If on the other hand you see the North as destined to be a more significant roleplayer in the future plot, like I do, then you will expect to see their paths diverge from Stannis’s and align with that of Jon and the other Starks as they ressurrect the North as a crucial member of a North-Vale- Riverlands alliance that will be a key powebloc in the Great Council to come, which will ultimately unite Westeros against the Others.

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57 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Since the agenda never was to restore the Starks - remember, Stannis said that he'll save Jon's sister if he can - saving 'Arya' is not a priority - I don't think there is any chance that there is such a caveat in their deal. If it were, then we would have heard about it now, especially after they got buried in the snow.

I

but the wolves insisted; Roose Bolton could not be suffered to hold Winterfell, and the Ned's girl must be rescued from the clutches of his bastard. So said Morgan Liddle, Brandon Norrey, Big Bucket Wull, the Flints, even the She-Bear. "One hundred leagues from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell," said Artos Flint, the night the argument boiled to a head in Galbart Glover's longhall. "Three hundred miles as the raven flies."

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3 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

but the wolves insisted; Roose Bolton could not be suffered to hold Winterfell, and the Ned's girl must be rescued from the clutches of his bastard. So said Morgan Liddle, Brandon Norrey, Big Bucket Wull, the Flints, even the She-Bear. "One hundred leagues from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell," said Artos Flint, the night the argument boiled to a head in Galbart Glover's longhall. "Three hundred miles as the raven flies."

Exactly this.  I completely forgot that it was the Northmen who helped to persuade Stannis to go to Winterfell in the first place.  When you factor in that on 3 separate occasions they mention fighting for Ned's little girl, it's pretty clear that is a major motivation for them in the first place.  

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4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

ok...and then they went to Winterfell to "save Ned's little girl."  You throw "should" and "could" around a lot for a group of ragtag fighters who probably lack armor and simple weapons for the most part (they are basically like wildlings) ...I doubt taking castles from fighters like the ironborn were much in the cards.  When you consider that even with Stannis we get a small group of ironborn basically destroying the clansmen I see why they wouldn't feel comfortable taking back Deepwood Motte on their own.

The clansmen are not like wildlings, but even if they were - they are not the only Northmen in the North. Why didn't the Manderlys make an attempt to free the castle of the Glovers? Robett Glover is there and he is, quite correctly, very grateful to Stannis for doing this - as he should be.

If people had the time and energy to enter into far-fetched conspiracies why on earth don't they have the energy to actually raise armies or poison the Boltons?

That just doesn't fit.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

That one man was not exactly in a position to take on the Reeds and Summer was he?  Do you really think he's gonna go back with an army and try to kidnap his liege lord against his will?  I think it's also provocative that the clansmen haven't told Stannis Bran is alive either.  I agree not telling Robb is weird but perhaps he was killed before they could get any word to him.

They passed through their lands. Once the man saw Bran, he could have tracked him and taken him in. It is still a complete mystery why he did not offer this. But it implies that the clansmen actually either did not care to offer Brandon Stark of Winterfell protection (who then wasn't their liege) or they were afraid of doing so.

Or am I overlooking another possibility? The text makes it pretty likely that Bran was recognized by the man.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

I mean, doesn't the fact that they name Robb King in the North and that they only knelt to dragons kind of speak for itself? 

That is the Greatjon's opinion, it is not fact. Eddard Stark kneels to King Robert Baratheon more than a couple of times, and Robb Stark wants to topple King Joffrey when he marches to war. He doesn't want some kingdom of his own.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

In any case, lets just assume you're correct and they're not any "more proud or independent than any other region."  That doesn't mean that regions don't behave in selfish ways, just like we see of every other house and region.  They are all looking to benefit themselves in the end.  The Manderleys seem to be doing just fine in White Harbor.

This is a feudal society. There doesn't seem to be any 'patriotism' in those regions. They are not nations nor former nations. And noble houses act in their own best interests - just like the Boltons did, when they sided with the Lannisters - not in the best interest of some non existing proto-state.

If King Stannis offered to make Wynafryd or Wylla Manderly the new Lady of Highgarden I'm pretty sure Lord Wyman wouldn't just shrug and ignore such an offer.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Again I will repeat she has many reasons to hate Ramsay, and that her loyalty is definitely something we are given to question in that light.  Who knows where her loyalty actually lays?

Roose Bolton, of course. We get very strong signs in that direction. If Roose were to die things would be different, of course.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

And over half his men at Winterfell are of questionable loyalty.  Dustin pretty much talks about this when she's telling Theon about Roose.  He knows their loyalty is shaky, that's why he's trying to get rid of at least the Manderleys and Freys and probably a lot more and why he shows fear on his face when he sees them at their throats.

That would be too much Roose has about 6,000-7,000 men at Winterfell, and 2,000 are Freys. But he brought back 3,000+ men from the Twins - and those would all be men who helped put down the Starks and their allies at the Twins. They should be pretty trustworthy because one can guess that the veterans of the Red Wedding wouldn't be exactly be safe in a post-Bolton world. That would mean Roose can actually count upon the loyalty of about 5,000 men at Winterfell.

It is different with the lords, of course, but Wyman and Mors didn't exactly bring many men, did they? The rest should be overwhelmingly Dustin and Ryswell men. Those Cerwyns, Tallharts, etc. running around in that army should be joke - unless they are part of the men who came back with Roose. But then they are his now, never mind what colors they wear.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

The wildlings and the Northmen share the same exact gods, you think the Northmen are fine with that?  In any case Stannis also burned the Godswood and Heart Tree at Storm's End which is part of the Seven Kingdoms.

Storm's End is the ancestral seat of House Baratheon. Don't you think it is his business what he does at home? What makes you think the Northmen do care about that?

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Stannis is not the Northmen's King or otherwise they would have just declared for him at the start of the war of the 5 kings.  I don't need to quote Greatjon's speech again.  Stannis is not some benevolent selfless do-gooder unlike everyone else in the story...he saves them from the wildlings because he believes it will help him gain the Throne and he had no other options.

What? We are not talking about Stannis the obscure would-be usurper of ACoK. We are talking about the king who came north. If you think the Northmen won't recognize what he has done for them after he has taken Winterfell you are mistaken. Back when they just heard stories about the Wall they could ignore that - although that's already pretty, well, rude, if you think about that. And it seems that the Umbers actually get in what kind of danger they were - it is pretty clear that they would have joined Stannis with their full strength if the Greatjon hadn't been a captive.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Everyone looks for strength in a king...Stannis does not have any particular strength or "edge" that many other lords or kings have.  I would think the Northmen look more for "Does he have a direwolf" in their kings.

If you don't see the similarity between Stannis and the Northern strength is presented I don't know what to say. I think those parallels are pretty obvious.

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Again, we don't know what the Northmen's "word" actually is.  And I don't see why you expect them to follow Stannis south.  We will just agree to disagree on that one since we are getting nowhere with it.

We know the word Lord Manderly gave Davos. And it is obvious that those men who don't want to return home would gladly die not only while bathing in Bolton blood but also while bathing in Frey or Lannister blood. And all that they could get if they were riding down south with Stannis.

There is actually no indication that they would consider that an 'unworthy cause' or anything like that.

21 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

Exactly this.  I completely forgot that it was the Northmen who helped to persuade Stannis to go to Winterfell in the first place.  When you factor in that on 3 separate occasions they mention fighting for Ned's little girl, it's pretty clear that is a major motivation for them in the first place.  

Only after the took Deepwood Motte. Stannis won them to his cause long before it was clear that 'Arya' would be at Winterfell.

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27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The clansmen are not like wildlings, but even if they were - they are not the only Northmen in the North.

I meant they are armored like the wildlings, which is to say they are basically unarmored.  IIRC there is a description of their common soldier as being very lightly armed and armored.

28 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Why didn't the Manderlys make an attempt to free the castle of the Glovers? Robett Glover is there and he is, quite correctly, very grateful to Stannis for doing this - as he should be.

This is obvious- he's waiting on his son to be released as a hostage, which he tells Davos.

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If people had the time and energy to enter into far-fetched conspiracies why on earth don't they have the energy to actually raise armies or poison the Boltons?

Again, many of these families are only held in check by their hostages.  This is why the hostages are being held.  You seem to acknowledge this below as a deterrent but otherwise not?  

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That just doesn't fit.

They passed through their lands. Once the man saw Bran, he could have tracked him and taken him in. It is still a complete mystery why he did not offer this. But it implies that the clansmen actually either did not care to offer Brandon Stark of Winterfell protection (who then wasn't their liege) or they were afraid of doing so.

 

Huh?  As I said, if they are loyal to the Starks they are not gonna try to kidnap one of them by force.  I assume if Brandon wanted protection he would ask for it, as the Liddle probably did.  He shared his food with him and let him on his way, seems like loyalty to me.

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Or am I overlooking another possibility? The text makes it pretty likely that Bran was recognized by the man.

Of course he was recognized, he had the ultimate Stark identifier with him in Summer.

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That is the Greatjon's opinion, it is not fact. Eddard Stark kneels to King Robert Baratheon more than a couple of times, and Robb Stark wants to topple King Joffrey when he marches to war. He doesn't want some kingdom of his own.

It's not a fact that Robb was named King in the North?

 

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This is a feudal society. There doesn't seem to be any 'patriotism' in those regions. They are not nations nor former nations. And noble houses act in their own best interests - just like the Boltons did, when they sided with the Lannisters - not in the best interest of some non existing proto-state.

Part of the reason why the North seems different is because there is a loyalty to the Starks that seems to live on even past their apparent demise.  But in any case I agree that noble houses act in their own interest, which is often intertwined with clan and tribal loyalty towards their own region.

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Roose Bolton, of course. We get very strong signs in that direction. If Roose were to die things would be different, of course.

Well be prepared for "things to be different" because Roose dead.

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That would be too much Roose has about 6,000-7,000 men at Winterfell, and 2,000 are Freys. But he brought back 3,000+ men from the Twins - and those would all be men who helped put down the Starks and their allies at the Twins. They should be pretty trustworthy because one can guess that the veterans of the Red Wedding wouldn't be exactly be safe in a post-Bolton world. That would mean Roose can actually count upon the loyalty of about 5,000 men at Winterfell.

It is different with the lords, of course, but Wyman and Mors didn't exactly bring many men, did they? The rest should be overwhelmingly Dustin and Ryswell men. Those Cerwyns, Tallharts, etc. running around in that army should be joke - unless they are part of the men who came back with Roose. But then they are his now, never mind what colors they wear.

 

I'm talking about the Lords since they are the people we actually meet and are given personalities.  I would again assert that of the vast majority of the remaining Lords in the North, very few, if any, actually have any real loyalty towards the Boltons and Freys.  As has been repeated by everyone, "the North remembers."

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Storm's End is the ancestral seat of House Baratheon. Don't you think it is his business what he does at home? What makes you think the Northmen do care about that?

You can't be serious...we are given to understand the Northmen take their gods pretty seriously, do you think burning godswoods mean nothing to them?  That's absurd.  You think of any real world religious people who would be perfectly fine with a foreign king coming in...heck you can just take Aegon the conquerors example of why he converted.

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What? We are not talking about Stannis the obscure would-be usurper of ACoK. We are talking about the king who came north. If you think the Northmen won't recognize what he has done for them after he has taken Winterfell you are mistaken. Back when they just heard stories about the Wall they could ignore that - although that's already pretty, well, rude, if you think about that. And it seems that the Umbers actually get in what kind of danger they were - it is pretty clear that they would have joined Stannis with their full strength if the Greatjon hadn't been a captive.

As mentioned above now they suddenly care about the hostages?  That's what I've been saying all along.

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If you don't see the similarity between Stannis and the Northern strength is presented I don't know what to say. I think those parallels are pretty obvious.

umm no.  Again Tywin is pretty Northern then too huh?  Or Tarly, he's a true Northman?  You're taking this idea of "hard men" and saying that makes a Northman.  Sure they may respect that like anyone else but it seems they respect fellow Northmen more, especially ones who follow the Old Gods and not ones who follow "Red Rahloo" or whatever the Northmen dismissively call the Red God.

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We know the word Lord Manderly gave Davos. And it is obvious that those men who don't want to return home would gladly die not only while bathing in Bolton blood but also while bathing in Frey or Lannister blood. And all that they could get if they were riding down south with Stannis.

What's the most obvious, as they say numerous times, is they are going to Winterfell to rescue Ned's little girl.

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There is actually no indication that they would consider that an 'unworthy cause' or anything like that.

Ok fine.  I'll admit there's no indication they would consider it an unworthy cause if you admit there's no indication either that they would consider it a worthy cause.

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Only after the took Deepwood Motte. Stannis won them to his cause long before it was clear that 'Arya' would be at Winterfell.

Yes, Stannis won them to the cause of taking Deepwood Motte back.  That much is clear.  Because their interests were aligned.  What is unclear is what would happen if their interests were to become unaligned.

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11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

I meant they are armored like the wildlings, which is to say they are basically unarmored.  IIRC there is a description of their common soldier as being very lightly armed and armored.

They have good steel, no? And Deepwood is just a wooden castle. If they had had attacked while Asha was on the islands they could have done it with a couple of hundred men, presumably, perhaps even fewer.

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

This is obvious- he's waiting on his son to be released as a hostage, which he tells Davos.

This has literally nothing to do with Manderly not helping the Glovers to take back their castle which was held by the Ironborn at that time. Or them making an effort to retake Torrhen's Square - the Lannisters/Freys have hostages, the Ironborn do not. Or at least no significant hostages.

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

Again, many of these families are only held in check by their hostages.  This is why the hostages are being held.  You seem to acknowledge this below as a deterrent but otherwise not?

See above.

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

Huh?  As I said, if they are loyal to the Starks they are not gonna try to kidnap one of them by force.  I assume if Brandon wanted protection he would ask for it, as the Liddle probably did.  He shared his food with him and let him on his way, seems like loyalty to me.

Of course he was recognized, he had the ultimate Stark identifier with him in Summer.

It is odd that nothing like that was offered, nor any attempt made to ask the boy where he was going. Brandon Stark is still a child, and a cripple at that. Allowing him to go god-knows-where with the Reeds could get him killed. Do you think Robb Stark - who was still alive at that point! - wouldn't have wanted to know that his brother was still alive? Do you not think King Robb would have been very wroth if he had later learned that the clansmen allowed Bran to walk to his doom - assuming he had died (or is going to die) beyond the Wall, or perhaps in the Gifts?

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

It's not a fact that Robb was named King in the North?

Sure, but this wasn't his idea or his goal. It was a strange idea. And he was not just the King in the North. He was also the King of the Trident, something people usually forget.

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

Part of the reason why the North seems different is because there is a loyalty to the Starks that seems to live on even past their apparent demise. 

The Targaryens can say the same thing, no? And the Starks are not gone, yet. They believe 'Arya' is still there, no?

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

But in any case I agree that noble houses act in their own interest, which is often intertwined with clan and tribal loyalty towards their own region.

 

They act in their own best interests, which usually has nothing to do with the interests of their subjects or their country in an abstract sense. Those are concepts that come only up when there are proper states.

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

Well be prepared for "things to be different" because Roose dead.

Not that I know of.

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

I'm talking about the Lords since they are the people we actually meet and are given personalities.  I would again assert that of the vast majority of the remaining Lords in the North, very few, if any, actually have any real loyalty towards the Boltons and Freys.  As has been repeated by everyone, "the North remembers."

But nothing interesting about the Others and the Children, I take it? The lords don't matter all that much, or do they? Those at Winterfell are mostly old men who will die soon enough, anyway (Manderly is not going to get out of the castle alive, even if Hosteen didn't smear shit on his blade before cutting through the man's chins - which he may have done considering he is a Frey - and Hother is a very old guy, too).

The question is how many men actually do answer directly to Roose Bolton. And if you look at the numbers then those are pretty high. With the Freys out of the castle he doesn't lose any of his Northmen. What has to happen that Bolton men suddenly answer to some Umber, Manderly, or other guy who has no right to give them orders?

There is a reason why Manderly came to Winterfell in the first place. Roose simply has to much power. If he hadn't come, Roose would marched against White Harbor after he had dealt with Stannis.

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

You can't be serious...we are given to understand the Northmen take their gods pretty seriously, do you think burning godswoods mean nothing to them?  That's absurd.  You think of any real world religious people who would be perfectly fine with a foreign king coming in...heck you can just take Aegon the conquerors example of why he converted.

Aegon the Conqueror didn't convert to the Faith.  He was raised in that religion (or at least the branch of it the Targaryens had on Dragonstone). There was a sept and statues of the Seven on Dragonstone long before Aegon was even born.

My point is just that the Northmen have no right to chide King Stannis for anything he does under his own roof as long as that doesn't affect the way they live their lives. Not just because Stannis is the king, but also because it is none of their business what a man does in his own house thousands of leagues away from their castles.

And as things stand there is no indication that the Northmen do care about that. They certainly would care if Stannis wanted to burn their godswoods. But has he given any indication that he wants to do something like that at this point? No. And I'm with you that he would have a lot of problems very, very quickly if he did a thing like that.

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

As mentioned above now they suddenly care about the hostages?  That's what I've been saying all along.

The hostages were no big deal in the sense that the Greatjon's fate wasn't important enough for his uncles to join Roose with all their troops. And Roose and Tommen apparently allow them to get away with that ploy. Which means hostages are not the reason why the Northmen sat on their hands and asses for as long as they did.

They could have acted after the fall of Winterfell in ACoK. And they could have acted after the Red Wedding. But they do literally nothing.

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

umm no.  Again Tywin is pretty Northern then too huh?  Or Tarly, he's a true Northman?  You're taking this idea of "hard men" and saying that makes a Northman.  Sure they may respect that like anyone else but it seems they respect fellow Northmen more, especially ones who follow the Old Gods and not ones who follow "Red Rahloo" or whatever the Northmen dismissively call the Red God.

There are similarities there, too, but unlike other fancy lords from the south Stannis doesn't care about appearances and fancy things. He is to the point in everything he does. That should agree with them.

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

What's the most obvious, as they say numerous times, is they are going to Winterfell to rescue Ned's little girl.

Tell me, is there any indication that they are going home now that the little girl has been saved? 'Arya' is no longer in Winterfell, or is she?

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

Ok fine.  I'll admit there's no indication they would consider it an unworthy cause if you admit there's no indication either that they would consider it a worthy cause.

Aren't we in agreement that Stannis is not likely to ask them to march down south with him? But if he did do and told them they could avenge themselves on the Freys and Lannisters just as they had just avenged themselves on the Boltons and Freys in the North, what makes you think they would not jump on that chance? Seriously, this is a non-issue.

11 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

Yes, Stannis won them to the cause of taking Deepwood Motte back.  That much is clear.  Because their interests were aligned.  What is unclear is what would happen if their interests were to become unaligned.

There is no indication that their interests could get unaligned unless Stannis fucks up and demand that they burn their gods or sacrifice their children or shit like that.

They all want to fight the Boltons/Freys/Lannisters, and they all (presumably) don't want to be killed by the Others.

If George wanted to tell the story of a North who doesn't want Stannis as their king he should have put Rickon and Osha at White Harbor and not on Skagos, and he should have Lord Wyman take Davos' head because the man was not bending the knee to the 'true King in the North', Rickon Stark of Winterfell.

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On 9/8/2018 at 4:24 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

so you are saying that i want Freys killed more then Northmen want to kill them ? that's hard to believe since i did not have my kin murdered by the Freys .

No,  how on earth have you jumped to that conclusion? 

I am saying that as a fan, you are more invested in the Freys being punished than the Northmen are. The northmen can afford to wait for their vengeance, their is no timetable for them on the matter. Surviving winter, the threat of Wildlings in the North, the possibility of another Ironborn invasion, bringing peace to the North and a possible undead army attacking the North are not issues they can put off. 

 

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the Northmen know that a good many of them will not survive the winter so they will want to get their  revenge now,

It is entirely pointless going to war a thousand miles away if you don't have the supplies to feed the army or to last a siege, which is pretty much moot given the lack of numbers.

Robb could not take the Twins with a 20k army of the North's best, the poorly trained and equipped men looking to sacrifice themselves during winter are not going to stand a chance, it would be an entirely fruitless endeavor, likely the reason that not one northern character suggested it in ADWD. 

And of course you are ignoring the realities of the situation, there are Ironborn at Torrhen's Square, there are Boltons at the Dreadfort, they don't all simply cease to exist should Stannis win, infact the idea that Stannis side get total victory with few casualties is a little far fetched by itself. 

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why wait till an uncertain future time that may never come ?

You are clearly missing the point, they have waited. It was still summer when the Red Wedding happened, it is now more than a year later and there has been zero mention of the Northmen wanting to go South. 

They are a patient people, sending a few thousand men to die on the journey there or outside the walls of the Twins is going to accomplish nothing. 

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they will have an army in Winterfell

Not enough. Nowhere near enough, and that is before they take on any more casualties. 

 

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and a great military leader leading them and the Riverlands are a powder keg of anger , when will there be a better time ?

Summer time when they the supplies needed to go South.

If it was the perfect time why has there been zero mention of it?

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Winterfell's walls are still as strong as ever

Are they?

How would Stannis have known this before he marched? 

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and there are several feet of snow on the ground and an ongoing blizzard and Roose Bolton has an army inside that probably outnumbers Stannis's army on the outside so i think you may be wrong about this .

I'm not wrong, the Twins is a much tougher task for a Northern army than Winterfell. 

A medieval soldier, in normal conditions needs 1:5 calories for every calorie a farmer would need, this is going to be greatly amplified in winter when, we have seen, some days the conditions are impossible to travel in.  They simply don't have the food stores to make the journey and still be effective soldiers when/if they ever reach the South, not without stripping the people they are supposedly sacrificing themselves of their supplies to last the winter. It is a catch 22. 

And that is the next obstacle, the distance. It is 300 miles between Deepwood Motte and Winterfell and it is 1,120 between Winterfell and the Twins. Stannis, after 50 days of travel is still not at Winterfell. A similar journey to the Twins and back to the Wall, with a siege in between, could see him gone for years in the current conditions. It is just not worth the risk, the Freys are still going to be there in summer.

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How will Stannis be able to feed his army during the siege and how will he build siege equipment in a blizzard and how would he take the castle when Bolton has more men then he has .

Well yeah, he has yet to take it, he may not ever take it. This is hardly strengthening your position. 

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Why would it not make logical sense that Stannis wants the support of the Riverlands ,

Then why has he not mentioned it yet? He is in contact with Jon, no mention of it, we have seen him use Davos for diplomacy, no mention of contact with the Riverlands and now we have seen him use Massey and still zero suggestion of him being in contact with any Riverlord. 

I get it, it would be really satisfying for the fandom to have Stannis win with zero casualties, march to the Twins, beat them and then onto either the capital or back to the Wall to save the day. But to do so means GRRM abandoning logic he set up in ADWD. Winter is getting worse, not better, traveling is only going to become harder. 

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maybe you are the one hoping that it does not happen because of your love for the Freys (the next book may be tough for you to read )

lol I have no problem with them being wiped out. They are fictional characters and there is going to be no sequel to this series. All the characters are coming to the end of their line. Tywin is perhaps the most interesting character, for me, in the series but him dying was essential to the plot and was the correct decision. 

We have different expectations from the series and author, I don't care who wins or loses as long as its entertaining and makes sense by the rules of the fictional universe GRRM has created. 

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The Twins are not importatnt to Stannis but they would be a way for him to get the Northmen South and after they take the Riverlands they can head to Kings Landing which is important to him .

Defending the realm is important to him. 

Because he is your rightful king, Davos thought. Because he is a strong man and a just one, the only man who can restore the realm and defend it against the peril that gathers in the north. 

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" My duty is to the realm." His hand swept across the Painted Table. "How many boys dwell in Westeros? How many girls? How many men, how many women? The darkness will devour them all, she says. The night that never ends. She talks of prophecies . . . a hero reborn in the sea, living dragons hatched from dead stone . . . she speaks of signs and swears they point to me. I never asked for this, no more than I asked to be king. Yet dare I disregard her?" He ground his teeth. "We do not choose our destinies. Yet we must . . . we must do our duty, no? Great or small, we must do our duty. Melisandre swears that she has seen me in her flames, facing the dark with Lightbringer raised on high. Lightbringer!"

 

He can't defend the realm from the South. 

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11 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

No,  how on earth have you jumped to that conclusion? 

I am saying that as a fan, you are more invested in the Freys being punished than the Northmen are. The northmen can afford to wait for their vengeance, their is no timetable for them on the matter. Surviving winter, the threat of Wildlings in the North, the possibility of another Ironborn invasion, bringing peace to the North and a possible undead army attacking the North are not issues they can put off. 

I

That is a very reasonable , logical argument that makes a lot of sense except for the fact that you are dealing with crazy Northmen who would rather die killing Boltons and Frey then worry about surviving winter . 

Ser Corliss Penny gave the clan chief an incredulous look. "Do you want to die, Wull?"

That seemed to amuse the northman. "I want to live forever in a land where summer lasts a thousand years. I want a castle in the clouds where I can look down over the world. I want to be six-and-twenty again. When I was six-and-twenty I could fight all day and fuck all night. What men want does not matter.

"Winter is almost upon us, boy. And winter is death. I would sooner my men die fighting for the Ned's little girl than alone and hungry in the snow, weeping tears that freeze upon their cheeks. No one sings songs of men who die like that. As for me, I am old. This will be my last winter. Let me bathe in Bolton blood before I die. I want to feel it spatter across my face when my axe bites deep into a Bolton skull. I want to lick it off my lips and die with the taste of it on my tongue."

 

11 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

I'm not wrong, the Twins is a much tougher task for a Northern army than Winterfell. 

 

At least in the Riverlands the weather would be nowhere as harsh as Winterfell and they would have allies , Blackish is still alive and if he can gather the Riverlords together with the BWB then they would have a pretty strong force and with the Lannister /Tyell alliance struggling with Tywin & Kevan dead and the Golden Company in the Stormlands and Iron Born in the Reach the Freys power in the Riverlands is not as strong as it used to be . You act like that Stannis would be attacking a united Riverlands which is no where near the case , not to mention that if he wins Winterfell he will have destroyed a 3000 soldier Frey army which would only weaken the Freys power . 

 

 

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