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Northern Lords declaring for Stannis then refusing to march south


Ellard Stark

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11 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

I understand it perfectly. But I also understand you have to make a judgment as to what is the mostly likely course of events, and the most effective use of the resources at your disposal. It's also necessary to keep the strategic goals in mind -  right now, seizing MC is so low down the list of priorities that it is not worth weakening the main force by devoting resources to it. Stannis is already pressed for men. He can make better use of them in a unified force right now. You cannot afford to spread your forces too thinly either.

Because he might find himself 99 men short of what he needs at Winterfell, for one thing. For another, he doesn't control the land in between, who knows if they'll get there, because there is also a risk involved in trying to take MC. It is a judgment call, and being as this thrust against Winterfell and Bolton is pretty much a last-ditch effort, the judgment I would make is to concentrate all possible force on the task at hand, and worry about other threats if they materialise.

If Winterfell is won he occupies a much more valuable position than MC. If he doesn't win Winterfell, then Stannis' cause is dead anyway. It's an all or nothing shot for him, and sending 100 men away on an uncertain mission reduces the odds on the primary objective. He can't afford to lose today's battle through preparing for tomorrow's.

 

who said anything about sending men to Moat Calin before he wins Winterfell?

The only thing I have ever said is that if he wins Winterfell and defeats Bolton then he should send men to Moat Calin to secure it from whatever men Bolton left there (if he left any ) If Stannis wins the Battle of Ice and takes Winterfell he should be getting the loyalty of the North on his side and at that point he would have the resources to send a hundred men or so to secure Moat Calin so that when winter ends he is protected from a southern invasion while also securing the one land route to the south in case he decides to make a move towards Kings Landing . 

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28 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

who said anything about sending men to Moat Calin before he wins Winterfell? 

The only thing I have ever said is that if he wins Winterfell and defeats Bolton then he should send men to Moat Calin to secure it from whatever men Bolton left there (if he left any ) If Stannis wins the Battle of Ice and takes Winterfell he should be getting the loyalty of the North on his side and at that point he would have the resources to send a hundred men or so to secure Moat Calin so that when winter ends he is protected from a southern invasion while also securing the one land route to the south in case he decides to make a move towards Kings Landing . 

Even if Stannis defeats Bolton quickly, there's still the whole winter ahead (remember it's still autumn during the Stannis scenes in DwD). Sending men to Moat Cailin is a death sentence. In the North, it's hard enough to survive winter in a well-stocked castle or holdfast, Moat Cailin is a ruin with no larder, no woodpile, no lands to support it. It doesn't need and can't support a full-time garrison through a winter, especially one that's had a massive dramatic build-up to be a real humdinger. For a garrison to survive it would need logistic support, like regular supplies of food and fuel - that would be a big drain on resources for whoever provided it.

Once Stannis has the North behind him, the crannogmen will have his back - they can bleed and delay any army coming up the causeway, and raise the alarm should one turn up, which is very very unlikely, but if it does, there is ample time to warn Barrowton, Cerwyn and White Harbour to muster the necessary defenders - after all, that's pretty much how all the Andals were kept out centuries ago. It might be worth Stannis sending a couple of envoys down to remind these Houses how it's done, but trying to garrison MC full-time is an unnecessary waste of resources.

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3 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

Even if Stannis defeats Bolton quickly, there's still the whole winter ahead (remember it's still autumn during the Stannis scenes in DwD). Sending men to Moat Cailin is a death sentence. In the North, it's hard enough to survive winter in a well-stocked castle or holdfast, Moat Cailin is a ruin with no larder, no woodpile, no lands to support it. It doesn't need and can't support a full-time garrison through a winter, especially one that's had a massive dramatic build-up to be a real humdinger. For a garrison to survive it would need logistic support, like regular supplies of food and fuel - that would be a big drain on resources for whoever provided it.

Once Stannis has the North behind him, the crannogmen will have his back - they can bleed and delay any army coming up the causeway, and raise the alarm should one turn up, which is very very unlikely, but if it does, there is ample time to warn Barrowton, Cerwyn and White Harbour to muster the necessary defenders - after all, that's pretty much how all the Andals were kept out centuries ago. It might be worth Stannis sending a couple of envoys down to remind these Houses how it's done, but trying to garrison MC full-time is an unnecessary waste of resources.

Do you guys really think that stannis will have the north behind him, that the south will send na army north during winter (look at what happened to stannis)  and that stannis will care about defending from the south when he has to man up the Wall as soon as possible?

 

Lets face it. All scenarios are pratically impossible. a) nobody likes stannis, he has no claim to the north and northerns will want to follow a stark. b) if a Southern army does march south they just have to let it pass and die of starvation and hunger while they march and siege some castle...

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5 minutes ago, divica said:

Do you guys really think that....

IMHO:

  • Stannis will have the North if he removes Bolton - he already has the clans; Manderly and Umber seem to be ready to back him - if the Manderly/Rickon plan works out, well see below...
  • The southrons would be mad to try it; especially in winter; doubly so THIS winter
  • Defending the Wall is my major point, that should be evident if you actually read the earlier posts
  • Stannis is NOT claiming KitN, he's claiming the Iron Throne (eventually) - if he names a Stark WotN (which his chat with Jon suggests he wants to do and understands the value of), then he has the north, even if they don't like him much.
  • Come summer - if he survives with the realm vaguely intact - then he'll get back to trying for the IT, though events in the south may overtake his plans - who's to say he wouldn't bend the knee to a Targ restoration if his choice is Storm's End or a face-full of dragon fire?
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50 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:
  • Come summer - if he survives with the realm vaguely intact - then he'll get back to trying for the IT, though events in the south may overtake his plans - who's to say he wouldn't bend the knee to a Targ restoration if his choice is Storm's End or a face-full of dragon fire?

"Did you turn into an utter fool when Tyrion shaved your beard? This is Stannis Baratheon. The man will fight to the bitter end and then some. If he is gone, it can only mean he intends to resume the war"

Also this spoiler from Winds of Winter

Spoiler

"I am Robert's heir, the rightful king of Westeros.  My place is with my men.  Yours is in Braavos.  Go with the banker, and do as I have bid."
     "As you command," Ser Justin said.
     "It may be that we shall lose this battle," the king said grimly.  "In Braavos you may hear that I am dead.  It may even be true.  You shall find my sellswords nonetheless."
     The knight hesitated.  "Your Grace, if you are dead — "
     " — you will avenge my death, and seat my daughter on the Iron Throne.  Or die in the attempt."

 

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23 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

"Did you turn into an utter fool when Tyrion shaved your beard? This is Stannis Baratheon. The man will fight to the bitter end and then some. If he is gone, it can only mean he intends to resume the war"

TBH I quite agree, as I've said above, 'he'll break before he bends' - I was just allowing for the uncertainty regarding a dragon in his face.

25 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Also this spoiler from Winds of Winter

I'm not touching Winds til it comes out, so thank you for tagging it :cheers:

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2 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

IMHO:

  • Stannis will have the North if he removes Bolton - he already has the clans; Manderly and Umber seem to be ready to back him - if the Manderly/Rickon plan works out, well see below...
  • The southrons would be mad to try it; especially in winter; doubly so THIS winter
  • Defending the Wall is my major point, that should be evident if you actually read the earlier posts
  • Stannis is NOT claiming KitN, he's claiming the Iron Throne (eventually) - if he names a Stark WotN (which his chat with Jon suggests he wants to do and understands the value of), then he has the north, even if they don't like him much.
  • Come summer - if he survives with the realm vaguely intact - then he'll get back to trying for the IT, though events in the south may overtake his plans - who's to say he wouldn't bend the knee to a Targ restoration if his choice is Storm's End or a face-full of dragon fire?

He doesn t really have the clans. The clans agreed to kill the boltons and save ned's girl. Do you think they will stick around stannis afterwads? The snippets we have seen from the army the northerns don t like stannis and his fire god. He has done nothing to win them over and with farya saved, the deadly march and the religious problems we don t even know if they will stay with stannis until winterfell or the freys. So far stannis camp seems like a place to die slowly and they can do it at home or at the Wall (it is strange that the clan leaders are at the wedding in castle black).

Can you see the problems with naming a stark WotN? it would be going back on the wishes of the northern lords that want to be independent. If stannis names rickon WotN with manderley being his regent/caretaker it makes manderley  look like he is selling the north to stannis for power… while some northern houses might ally themselves with maderley there would be a lot of other houses that would want their Independence from the IT and say that manderley is using a 5 year old kid to gain power. Simillar to what roose did with farya… 

 

And all this doesn t take into account that stannis is miles away from allying with manderley because he thinks he killed davos. Until davos returns and talks with stannis there is no away that an aliance can happen. If we assume that davos won t appear near winterfel in the next week or so then stannis will have to name someone else WotN. Can you imagine how well that will be accepted? Or how the houses allied with manderley will accept stannis when he wants to kill mandeley?

 

The only way to have an unified north is with a stark KitN. IT might be jon or rickon depending on the timing and circunstances. But I can t see how stannis has the north when he doesn t even have a warden or aliances besides getting rid of the boltons...

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17 minutes ago, divica said:

He doesn t really have the clans. The clans agreed to kill the boltons and save ned's girl. Do you think they will stick around stannis afterwads?

Don't matter what I think they'll do. It looks like Stannis expects them to hang around, and the issue is what Stannis is planning - his plans may fail, but that doesn't mean they aren't his plans now... (FWIW I can't see Stannis being successful in the end, the question for me is what makes a sensible plan of action for him.)

18 minutes ago, divica said:

Can you see the problems with naming a stark WotN? it would be going back on the wishes of the northern lords that want to be independent. If stannis names rickon WotN with manderley being his regent/caretaker it makes manderley  look like he is selling the north to stannis for power… while some northern houses might ally themselves with maderley there would be a lot of other houses that would want their Independence from the IT and say that manderley is using a 5 year old kid to gain power. Simillar to what roose did with farya… 

Nothing insurmountable there - Stannis is still the King Who Came (to Defend the Wall). That counts for something in the north, even if he is halfway up his own rear-end ;) IMHO 'the north' wants three things right now: a Stark in Winterfell, the Bolton's removed from power and the Wall defended. I think independence has lost its savour for the time being, and Stannis can help with the rest, that's the hand he holds, that's all he can play. I think he'll accept whatever compromise the lords can cobble together if it allows him to focus on the Wall, and I'm sure he'd happily accept any help offered towards manning the Wall, too.

26 minutes ago, divica said:

he thinks he killed davos. Until davos returns and talks with stannis there is no away that an aliance can happen

Does Stannis really think Davos is dead? I don't recall reading this, but then again there's a lot to remember :dunno: Davos being absent is not an absolute impediment to Stannis and Wyman getting it on, for some reason I had a suspicion there was some communication between the camps. As of the end of DwD there's going to be some sort of resolution that moves the plot forward, and I suspect we'll find more pies with Stannis' fingers in them.... (ok, that may not be the best metaphor to use around Manderly, but you get the drift, I hope :D)

 

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55 minutes ago, divica said:

He doesn t really have the clans. The clans agreed to kill the boltons and save ned's girl. Do you think they will stick around stannis afterwads? T

 

we don't know what the clans agreed to when Stannis recruited them . My assumption is that between the honor that he paid them by visiting them and him promising them vengeance on the Bolton's and saving Ned's girl that they bent the knee and pledged their loyalty to him as their King and if that is true then they will be with him until the end , their honor would allow them no other option.

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2 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

we don't know what the clans agreed to when Stannis recruited them . My assumption is that between the honor that he paid them by visiting them and him promising them vengeance on the Bolton's and saving Ned's girl that they bent the knee and pledged their loyalty to him as their King and if that is true then they will be with him until the end , their honor would allow them no other option.

we actually have clansmen talking about why they are marching with stannis. It is about being winter and they prefer to die kiling boltons and saving ned's little girl than dying of hunger in their homes. And in the same passage they say how much they dislike the southerns and their fire god. So no kneeling to stannis...

9 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

Don't matter what I think they'll do. It looks like Stannis expects them to hang around, and the issue is what Stannis is planning - his plans may fail, but that doesn't mean they aren't his plans now... (FWIW I can't see Stannis being successful in the end, the question for me is what makes a sensible plan of action for him.)

 

Whatever stannis is planning if he wants the clans to follow him after taking care of the boltons he needs to win them over. And he knows that! He needs a warden that can unify the north behind him. The problem is that stannis doesn t have that person at the moment. Therefore his hold of the north is VERY fragile! whatever he is planning he has no garantee that the clansmen will remain with him! And he knows that.

9 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

Nothing insurmountable there - Stannis is still the King Who Came (to Defend the Wall). That counts for something in the north, even if he is halfway up his own rear-end ;) IMHO 'the north' wants three things right now: a Stark in Winterfell, the Bolton's removed from power and the Wall defended. I think independence has lost its savour for the time being, and Stannis can help with the rest, that's the hand he holds, that's all he can play. I think he'll accept whatever compromise the lords can cobble together if it allows him to focus on the Wall, and I'm sure he'd happily accept any help offered towards manning the Wall, too.

First, stannis doesn t compromise! That is his problem.

Next, stannis can t do any of the things you said. He has around 700 Southern soldiers and is going to loose a lot of soldiers due to the weather and up coming battle. Whatever he accomplishes will be done by northerners! 

And the north cares so much about the Wall that there was a wildling massive attack and no lord led his army there to help or check the situation so far.

Stannis is a Southern, that lets his soldiers burn people alive, that burns weirwoods, that led a disastrous march, that will punish the lords that sided with the boltons even if they had no other choice, that can t man the Wall because doesn t have men, that can t defeat the boltons without help from thousands of northerns, that can t put a stark in winterfell because he doesn t have one…. basically he has no power. The only thing he has to offer is his military experience.

The person that can do all the things you said is wyman manderley. He has the man, sent a guy to retrieve rickon and has a plan against the boltons. Why would he give all this to stannis when stannis has nothing to offer?

9 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

Does Stannis really think Davos is dead? I don't recall reading this, but then again there's a lot to remember :dunno: Davos being absent is not an absolute impediment to Stannis and Wyman getting it on, for some reason I had a suspicion there was some communication between the camps. As of the end of DwD there's going to be some sort of resolution that moves the plot forward, and I suspect we'll find more pies with Stannis' fingers in them.... (ok, that may not be the best metaphor to use around Manderly, but you get the drift, I hope :D)

 

Wyman made it public that he killed davos to convince the freys he was on their side. And I think stannis talks about manderley killing davos… So even manderley helps stannis when things are done he will demand wyman's head for killing davos because STANNIS DOESN T COMPROMISE!

Bottom line, with the disastrous march stannis has very little power left. And even if he conquers winterfell he will have so few southerners that the northern lords have no reason to follow him.... He will become viserys v 2.0 the new beggar king!

He needs to get back to the Wall and wait fot his sellswords before he can negotiate anything with the northern lords. If he starts demanding their loyalty then he is going to be sent away… 

On the other hand he can try to unify the north to defend the Wall against the others. This might actually work! However when he starts talking about how he is AA and the lord of light chosen one to defeat the others he will start to sound eitheir crazy or a liar...

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On 9/21/2018 at 4:28 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

the seasons in Westeros are impossible to predict , winter could last 10 years or it could be over in 10 months ,

Sure, not actually clear what your point is here? There is no food, no fresh water at Moat Cailin, they can not live off the land in either winter or summetime. If Stannis wants to garrison (which, lets be clear, there is zero suggestion in the books that he does) then he needs to man and stock it for as long as he is in the North. 

He's not got the surplus stores and manpower to do this and given that the Ironborn and Stannis himself sailed into the North the defense of Moat Cailin seems to be a luxury he can afford to live without during winter

Those men are not only useless to him when defending the Wall but should the royal fleet sail to the wall dropping off an army to attack Stannis the men at Moat Cailin are going to be too far away to respond. 

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why would Stannis just ignore the one land route into the North when he could easily send a small garrison there ? 

Because he can't easily send a garrison there. I don't know how anyone reading the Stannis chapters in ADWD and come to a conclusion that it would be 'easy'. ADWD makes it more than clear that the weather, distance, lack of men, lack of food, lack of horses are all major obstacles for Stannis. So sending a significant portion of his men off is just dumb, not when there is no pressing need. 

 

20 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

maybe not but if you are Stannis can you take the risk ? why not just send a hundred men or so to secure Moat Calin and build up it's defenses?

Why not just send 5 or 10? 100 is not enough, not nearly enough. Under Victarion the Ironborn were in their thousands, 400 is going to be a minimum amount, and likely not enough, but then you also wanted to send scouts and messengers to all the other kingdoms which is another 100 (and that is being conservative, we are talking about a continent here). 

Around 500 men and the supplies needed to feed them for at least a year is not something Stannis has, not when he will want to leave Winterfell with a Lord and garrison loyal to him and still need supplies to get back to the Wall and enough men to defend the wall. 

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Sure, not actually clear what your point is here? There is no food, no fresh water at Moat Cailin, they can not live off the land in either winter or summetime. If Stannis wants to garrison (which, lets be clear, there is zero suggestion in the books that he does) then he needs to man and stock it for as long as he is in the North. 

He's not got the surplus stores and manpower to do this and given that the Ironborn and Stannis himself sailed into the North the defense of Moat Cailin seems to be a luxury he can afford to live without during winter

Those men are not only useless to him when defending the Wall but should the royal fleet sail to the wall dropping off an army to attack Stannis the men at Moat Cailin are going to be too far away to respond. 

Because he can't easily send a garrison there. I don't know how anyone reading the Stannis chapters in ADWD and come to a conclusion that it would be 'easy'. ADWD makes it more than clear that the weather, distance, lack of men, lack of food, lack of horses are all major obstacles for Stannis. So sending a significant portion of his men off is just dumb, not when there is no pressing need. 

 

Why not just send 5 or 10? 100 is not enough, not nearly enough. Under Victarion the Ironborn were in their thousands, 400 is going to be a minimum amount, and likely not enough, but then you also wanted to send scouts and messengers to all the other kingdoms which is another 100 (and that is being conservative, we are talking about a continent here). 

Around 500 men and the supplies needed to feed them for at least a year is not something Stannis has, not when he will want to leave Winterfell with a Lord and garrison loyal to him and still need supplies to get back to the Wall and enough men to defend the wall.

 

White Harbor and Barrowtown are  much closer to Moat Calin then Winterfell is so why wouldn't Stannis just make it's Lord Manderly's and Lady Dustin's responsibility to send men to fortify it and keep it manned ? Moat Calin is the one land route that connect the North to the South and i still believe that Stannis is not done with his plans on taking the Iron Throne so he will understand the importance of securing it .

Also one thing that you may not be taking into consideration is the Iron Banker who shows up at the end of ADWD . He has not traveled all the way to find Stannis in the North in the middle of a brutal blizzard risking his life the whole way for nothing. He undertook the dangerous journey  to the Wall then to Deepwood Motte and  Winterfell and then to the lake that Stannis is stuck at during a brutal blizzard in the middle of a war. There is really only one reason he would do that and that's because the Iron Bank has clearly decided that they are going to throw their weight behind Stannis and if they do then he will have the full weight one of the richest most powerful entities in the world behind him. Supplies, sellswords & sellships  will come pouring into his ranks from the south and everything will change. The Iron Bank will be betting their reputation on Stannis and that's one bet they cannot afford to lose if they want to keep their status as the most powerful bank in the world . Also they will not be doing this to just for Stannis to defend the wall but instead their plan is for him to take the Iron Throne so as long as the Others are not attacking the Wall Stannis will be continue south .

 

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55 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

White Harbor and Barrowtown are  much closer to Moat Calin then Winterfell is so why wouldn't Stannis just make it's Lord Manderly's and Lady Dustin's responsibility to send men to fortify it and keep it manned ?

The same Lady Dustin who is currently with Roose Bolton? Why would he trust a faction who have rebelled twice already in the war and if they join him it will be a third time?

Wyman seems unlikely to survive, but his men are needed to protect his city, a far more obvious target for an attack. The Manderly's have kept their strength at White Harbor for the entire series, what makes you think they will suddenly change tact. 

Or the idea that these two factions can work together?

But sure, this is certainly a more reasonable idea, Stannis is more likely to allow the North to have the responsibility of defending Moat Cailin than sending his own men. Essentially what I disagreed with was this idea that he'd be sending his own men. Him asking others to do so is not really a problem for me, whether they have the resources or the inclination to do so is another matter, but not something that is going to concern Stannis (given the slim to zero chance of an army attacking the North via land during winter is). 

 

 

55 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Moat Calin is the one land route that connect the North to the South and i still believe that Stannis is not done with his plans on taking the Iron Throne so he will understand the importance of securing it .

Unless he has

  • at least a 400 garrison
  • commanded by people he trusts
  • the resources to supply it indefinitely

then it is a pointless expedition, just a waste of resources.

 

55 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Also one thing that you may not be taking into consideration is the Iron Banker who shows up at the end of ADWD . He has not traveled all the way to find Stannis in the North in the middle of a brutal blizzard risking his life the whole way for nothing.

Of course I have taken that into consideration, there is nothing in that conversation with the iron banker or the future one he has with Massey to suggest he is heading South anytime soon. 

He intends to be king, but saving the realm is the priority. 

55 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

He undertook the dangerous journey  to the Wall then to Deepwood Motte and  Winterfell and then to the lake that Stannis is stuck at during a brutal blizzard in the middle of a war. There is really only one reason he would do that and that's because the Iron Bank has clearly decided that they are going to throw their weight behind Stannis and if they do then he will have the full weight one of the richest most powerful entities in the world behind him.

yup, and that military support is, logically, at least 6 months, likely longer, from arriving. Stannis has bigger issues, that is not to say that he has given up on ruling the realm but his first priority is that there will be a rule for him to rule. 

55 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Supplies, sellswords & sellships  will come pouring into his ranks from the south and everything will change.

no, from Essos, not the South.

55 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

The Iron Bank will be betting their reputation on Stannis and that's one bet they cannot afford to lose if they want to keep their status as the most powerful bank in the world . Also they will not be doing this to just for Stannis to defend the wall but instead their plan is for him to take the Iron Throne so as long as the Others are not attacking the Wall Stannis will be continue south .

 

They've not given a time frame on this loan, just like they did not give a timeframe on Jon's repayment. 

Stannis can't be a king if the realm is destroyed, saving the realm comes first

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8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

He intends to be king, but saving the realm is the priority. 

yup, and that military support is, logically, at least 6 months, likely longer, from arriving. Stannis has bigger issues, that is not to say that he has given up on ruling the realm but his first priority is that there will be a rule for him to rule. 

no, from Essos, not the South.

They've not given a time frame on this loan, just like they did not give a timeframe on Jon's repayment. 

Stannis can't be a king if the realm is destroyed, saving the realm comes first

He can do both . If he defeats Bolton and unites the North under his rule then he will have access to all the resources of the North to prepare the Wall for the battle with the Others and still be able to make plans to take the Iron Throne . The Iron Bank gives him access to the vast amount of resources from Essos plus he would have access to the Iron Bank's  information network that should be pretty widespread . How long till he discovers that the Golden Company is attacking the Stormlands along with the Iron Born attacking the Reach  and Kevan Lannister is dead ? The Lannister/Tyrell alliance is in trouble so what better time to attack ? Not to mention the Northmen are going to be chomping at the bit to get their revenge on the Freys . 

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On 9/24/2018 at 1:28 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

He can do both .

I don't think anyone has argued that he can't. But clearly he can not do both at the same time, he can't be in two places at the same time and right now his priority is saving the realm. 

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If he defeats Bolton and unites the North under his rule then he will have access to all the resources of the North

What resources? 

  • Winterfell destroyed and rebuilt, relying on the resources of others and few soldiers, if any, available for surplus needs
  • Karhold- not enough food for their own population to survive on winter, divided leadership is going to limit any help they can actually offer
  • Last Hearth - similar to Karstarks, not enough food, few men (likely even less after the battle of Ice) means a limit to any actual assistance
  • Hornwood- raided, mini civil war in the last period of summer will limit its stores (if the Boltons have not already took them) and their manpower
  • Dreadfort - strong but the enemy. Stannis would need to capture the castle before he could have their stores
  • Mountain Clans - no surplus food, thousands gone off to sacrifice themselves
  • Deepwood Motte - dependent on others to defend themselves, not enough supplies to feed Stannis before his trip to Winterfell, that's not going to have changed
  • Torrhen's Square currently captured by a small band of Ironborn, if they had a decent sized army available they would not be in such a position
  • Crannogmen - unless the frog population was booming in the last year, they are not going to be of much help

 

The North is not totally powerless, but it simply does not have the resources to fight on multiple fronts. Stannis has to pick a priority and he has chosen the safety of the realm.  

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to prepare the Wall for the battle with the Others and still be able to make plans to take the Iron Throne .

Sure, no one has claimed he can not make plans.  but resources are tight, he has to prioritize. 

He is not even bothered about taking an Ironborn controlled castle in the North,

"Torrhen's Square is not worth the mud beneath my heels. It is Winterfell that matters."

him bothering to try and take an empty fortress is a pointless endeavor considering the distance, lack of supplies and men. 

 

 

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The Iron Bank gives him access to the vast amount of resources from Essos

They gave him a loan. You are exaggerating about the rest. Robert or Cersei never speak of such resources that come with a loan. were are you getting this new information from? 

Stannis has been given a loan, he now needs to send someone to Essos in the winter (via the Wall) to hire an army and given we are told that pretty much all the Sellsword companies have been hired against Dany he is going to be there for some time. 

The Iron Bank has opened its coffers to me. You will collect their coin and hire ships and sellswords. A company of good repute, if you can find one. The Golden Company would be my first choice, if they are not already under contract. Seek for them in the Disputed Lands, if need be. But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows."

Stannis is well aware that it is going to take time, but he seems set on being back at the Wall. 

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plus he would have access to the Iron Bank's  information network that should be pretty widespread .

Stannis has been given a loan, he is sending Massey to collect it. This network was never mentioned by the Crown when they were fighting the war of the five kings, Tycho does not bring it up with Jon or Stannis. 

You may as well bring up the Bank's secret transformers as there is as much evidence in the books for those as there is for that secret network. 

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How long till he discovers that the Golden Company is attacking the Stormlands along with the Iron Born attacking the Reach  and Kevan Lannister is dead ?

Who knows, but Stannis will be back at the Wall when such information gets back to him. 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

They gave him a loan. You are exaggerating about the rest. Robert or Cersei never speak of such resources that come with a loan. were are you getting this new information from? 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

The Iron Bank has opened its coffers to me. You will collect their coin and hire ships and sellswords. A company of good repute, if you can find one. The Golden Company would be my first choice, if they are not already under contract. Seek for them in the Disputed Lands, if need be. But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows."

 

It's much more then a loan , the Iron Bank has been crapped on by Cersei and their reputation is at stake . They are going to be putting the full force of their resources behind Stannis. They have pretty much declared war on the Iron Throne and the Lannisters by backing Stannis,

 

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

I

  Reveal hidden contents

The Iron Bank has opened its coffers to me. You will collect their coin and hire ships and sellswords. A company of good repute, if you can find one. The Golden Company would be my first choice, if they are not already under contract. Seek for them in the Disputed Lands, if need be. But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows."

You may as well bring up the Bank's secret transformers as there is as much evidence in the books for those as there is for that secret network.

 

Who said anything about a secret network? The Iron Bank is the most powerful bank in the world and it only makes sense that they would have a pretty robust information network to support the business loans that they have all throughout the world . They would have agents in every part of the world constantly reporting on changing business climates and sending reports on any important news so that they can make informed decisions on who to give loans to and what rates to charge depending on the risks. It's no different then what JP Morgan Chase or any big bank does in our world .

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1 minute ago, Blackfish Tully said:

It's much more then a loan , the Iron Bank has been crapped on by Cersei and their reputation is at stake . They are going to be putting the full force of their resources behind Stannis. They have pretty much declared war on the Iron Throne and the Lannisters by backing Stannis,

 

Who said anything about a secret network? The Iron Bank is the most powerful bank in the world and it only makes sense that they would have a pretty robust information network to support the business loans that they have all throughout the world . They would have agents in every part of the world constantly reporting on changing business climates and sending reports on any important news so that they can make informed decisions on who to give loans to and what rates to charge depending on the risks. It's no different then what JP Morgan Chase or any big bank does in our world .

That is all very interesting but if the IB was really completly invested in stannis victory tycho would have traveled to westeros with sellswords contracts and would have created an invasion plan with stannis. So that while stannis conquered the north he would travel back to essos and get the sellswords.

What happens in reality is that the IB is interested enough to give Money to stannis. For all we know they just want to create enough problems to the IT that they decide to pay them...

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

I don't think anyone has argued that he can't. But clearly he can not do both at the same time, he can't be in two places at the same time and right now his priority is saving the realm. 

What resources? 

  • Winterfell destroyed and rebuilt, relying on the resources of others and few soldiers, if any, available for surplus needs
  • Karhold- not enough food for their own population to survive on winter, divided leadership is going to limit any help they can actually offer
  • Last Hearth - similar to Karstarks, not enough food, few men (likely even less after the battle of Ice) means a limit to any actual assistance
  • Hornwood- raided, mini civil war in the last period of summer will limit its stores (if the Boltons have not already took them) and their manpower
  • Dreadfort - strong but the enemy. Stannis would need to capture the castle before he could have their stores
  • Mountain Clans - no surplus food, thousands gone off to sacrifice themselves
  • Deepwood Motte - dependent on others to defend themselves, not enough supplies to feed Stannis before his trip to Winterfell, that's not going to have changed
  • Torrhen's Square currently captured by a small band of Ironborn, if they had a decent sized army available they would not be in such a position
  • Crannogmen - unless the frog population was booming in the last year, they are not going to be of much help

 

The North is not totally powerless, but it simply does not have the resources to fight on multiple fronts. Stannis has to pick a priority and he has chosen the safety of the realm.  

Sure, no one has claimed he can not make plans.  but resources are tight, he has to prioritize. 

He is not even bothered about taking an Ironborn controlled castle in the North,

"Torrhen's Square is not worth the mud beneath my heels. It is Winterfell that matters."

him bothering to try and take an empty fortress is a pointless endeavor considering the distance, lack of supplies and men. 

 

 

They gave him a loan. You are exaggerating about the rest. Robert or Cersei never speak of such resources that come with a loan. were are you getting this new information from? 

Stannis has been given a loan, he now needs to send someone to Essos in the winter (via the Wall) to hire an army and given we are told that pretty much all the Sellsword companies have been hired against Dany he is going to be there for some time. 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

The Iron Bank has opened its coffers to me. You will collect their coin and hire ships and sellswords. A company of good repute, if you can find one. The Golden Company would be my first choice, if they are not already under contract. Seek for them in the Disputed Lands, if need be. But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows."

Stannis is well aware that it is going to take time, but he seems set on being back at the Wall. 

Stannis has been given a loan, he is sending Massey to collect it. This network was never mentioned by the Crown when they were fighting the war of the five kings, Tycho does not bring it up with Jon or Stannis. 

You may as well bring up the Bank's secret transformers as there is as much evidence in the books for those as there is for that secret network. 

Who knows, but Stannis will be back at the Wall when such information gets back to him. 

 

 

 

Again. Even if stannis defeats the boltons how does he control the north?

The clansmen are there to save farya and kill boltons, the northern lords follow the starks, there is a possible will declaring jon KitN, he thinks manderley killed davos and he will probably have less than 500 swords.

If stannis takes winterfell he will be in a potical nightmare and be in danger of making na enemy of manderly (the most powerful northern lord at the moment and that may give him rickon), allienating the north by nominating a new warden that isn t a stark or a dozen other bad scenarios...

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Tycho did not travel all the way to the Wall  risking his life going through the Iron Born and then go to Deepwood Motte and then Winterfell in a blizzard through a war zone and then back again to find Stannis at the frozen lake just to give him a loan , if so he’s the Iron Bank's employee of the decade . It’s clear to me that the Iron Bank  has declared war on the Iron Throne and the Lannister especially , their reputation was crapped on by Cersei and if they don’t respond will brutal force then their reputation will be tarnished and they cannot afford that to happen, For one thing their marketing campaign slogan will have to be changed from “ the Iron Bank will have  it’s due” to “ the Iron Bank , just pay us when you can”.

i expect the Iron Bank to put all it’s resources into crushing the Lannisters so that people will remember for a long time what happens when somebody screws with them , the fact that the Lannisters are a competitor of the Iron Bank when it comes to the loan business and  crushing them will improve business in the future is just an added bonus . 

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On 9/23/2018 at 8:40 AM, Rufus Snow said:

Even if Stannis defeats Bolton quickly, there's still the whole winter ahead (remember it's still autumn during the Stannis scenes in DwD). Sending men to Moat Cailin is a death sentence. In the North, it's hard enough to survive winter in a well-stocked castle or holdfast, Moat Cailin is a ruin with no larder, no woodpile, no lands to support it. It doesn't need and can't support a full-time garrison through a winter, especially one that's had a massive dramatic build-up to be a real humdinger. For a garrison to survive it would need logistic support, like regular supplies of food and fuel - that would be a big drain on resources for whoever provided it.

Once Stannis has the North behind him, the crannogmen will have his back - they can bleed and delay any army coming up the causeway, and raise the alarm should one turn up, which is very very unlikely, but if it does, there is ample time to warn Barrowton, Cerwyn and White Harbour to muster the necessary defenders - after all, that's pretty much how all the Andals were kept out centuries ago. It might be worth Stannis sending a couple of envoys down to remind these Houses how it's done, but trying to garrison MC full-time is an unnecessary waste of resources.

Ain't no army coming up the Neck in winter unless it's to battle for the dawn. 

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13 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

It's much more then a loan , the Iron Bank has been crapped on by Cersei and their reputation is at stake .

Can you quote the relevant passages that back this being more than a loan? That the Ironbank even have this infrastructure you think they have?

 

13 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

They are going to be putting the full force of their resources behind Stannis.

Yeah, that seems doubtful. They are loaning him money, there is zero suggestion it is a partnership in the way you are suggesting otherwise they would be offering to do the hiring, actually leaving councillors with him. 

Nothing from what we have seen suggests that the bank is doing anything other than financial loan. 

13 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

They have pretty much declared war on the Iron Throne and the Lannisters by backing Stannis,

But not actually. They've given money to a rival claimant, not actually uncommon. The Italian merchants and bankers in London during the reign of Henry VII often had ties to both Henry and the multiple pretenders or almost pretenders that plagued his reign. 

The Iron Bank themselves are not at war with the crown. 

13 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Who said anything about a secret network?

Excellent, we are both on board. There will not be some network, never once mentioned in the series, that will be supporting Stannis. 

13 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

The Iron Bank is the most powerful bank in the world and it only makes sense that they would have a pretty robust information network to support the business loans that they have all throughout the world .

lol why? Why has this network never been mentioned?

Give examples of real life medieval banks networks to compare with?

13 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

They would have agents in every part of the world constantly reporting on changing business climates and sending reports on any important news so that they can make informed decisions on who to give loans to and what rates to charge depending on the risks.

In every major city, sure. That is about it. 

 

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