Battle of Fire, Battle of Ice

[James Fenimore Cooper XXII]

Battle of Fire

This fight will be the biggest battle in the novels.  There is the land battle between Ser Barristan's forces and the Masters' armies.   Massive engines of war, like the trebuchets are employed in this fight.  Barristan has the world's best infantry under his command.  Victarion is bringing help and will engage the enemy in the largest naval battle that we will likely see.   The Unsullied will finally see the kind of action they were trained and prepared for.  I am excited to read about the square formation and the lockstep system.  Meanwhile, Tyrion and his sell sword friends will get involved.  Sers Geris and Archibald pledged their support and fighting on the side of the Dragon Queen.  The small Dothraki khalasars make up part of the cavalry.  The dragon binder horn will cause an unknown, unpredictable effect.  The slaves turned soldiers are about to get blooded for the first time.  The dragons are present.  Daenerys could bring Drogon and the Dothraki to the battle at the crucial moment.

The Masters' armies have the upper hand in numbers.  They hold the seas and the port.  They are helped by the other slave cities of Volantis and Qarth.  Their trebuchets are superior to what weaponry the city defenders have.  Their big advantage in my opinion is their allies inside the walls, the harpy.  It is just like the harpy to strike when the defenders are busy.  I also think they have allies within Tyrion's sell sword camp.  A sell sword fights for gold and the masters have more of it.  The masters do not care about the cost in human toll.  

I predict a long war.  This is not a battle that will happen and conclude over the course of days.  The scale is very large.  Larger than any battle we have read and it involves both land and sea.  The masters have the advantage because they have a choke hold on the city.  Barristan and Skahaz have people they have to protect.  The masters do not care about protecting people.  The dragons are the wildcards in this war.  

Battle of Ice

This one is a fight for a castle.  It's basically a siege between two sides who are running out of resources.  This battle is likely to conclude in a short amount of time as there is just not enough resources available to fuel a long conflict.  The wildlings will get involved and it will be messy.  Stannis has allies inside the walls in the form of Wayman Manderly's people and Mance Rayder.  He has a trick up his sleeves to lure the Boltons into a trap.  It will be disappointing if Roose doesn't also have a trap for Stannis.  The players are Roose Bolton, Stannis Baratheon, Mance Rayder, Wayman Manderly, the Frey contingent, wildlings, Jon Snow, Mellisandre, and Theon Greyjoy.

The people inside the walls have the advantage in this fight because they are sheltered from the elements.  The move is on Stannis to get inside the walls.  He has to make that move soon.  The problem Roose faces is running out of supplies.  He was clever to send the Manderly forces out of the gates.  While they could side with Stannis it also means more mouths to feed for the enemy.  Manderly is wise enough to secretly leave some of his people behind the walls because he too knows the Boltons question his loyalty.  It could be he poisoned the remaining food supply before going out the gate.  Magic is a wildcard in this battle.  I can see Bran getting involved.  Theon could go nutzo on us and assassinate Stannis.  Ramsay is another wildcard because he might be dumb enough to assassinate his father.  Jon Snow is another wildcard who can bring the wildlings to the fight.  

[aryagonnakill#2]

I agree that both battles are going to be very interesting, but I actually disagree about some of the characterizations and would have to reverse them.  I don't think there will be much naval battle if any at Mereen.  The slavers are not expecting a fight, and are crewed by slave sailors, the Ironborn will massacre them barely breaking a sweat.  The numbers involved will also be dwarfed in relation to the upcoming battle between the Ironborn and the Redwyns/Hightowers.

The Land battle should be very interesting and I hope we get a couple more chapters than we already have, but we have enough to see that it really isn't much of a fight.  The Legions of New Ghis and a few sellsword companies are the only real opponents, the slave soldiers are comically inept, chained together, put on stilts, that is no fight and that's exactly what we see in Barristans chapters. 

The only real questions which I think you touched on correctly are the dragons and harpy.  Is Skahaz really on Dany/Barristans side or will the brazen beasts seize the city?  What exactly will Rhaegal do when he hears the horn?  No one can really say.  I'm inclined to say the dragons will be less climactic than many people seem to think.  I believe claiming the horn by blood means sacrificing yourself and tying the dragon that heard the blast to your blood line.  Thus unless Euron planted bastards in Vics fleet and he happened to choose three of them at random, Eurons plan would be wrecked as Moqorro wants, but Vic will not gain a dragon simply by smearing some blood on the horn.

As for the Harpy and Skahaz, I am less sure.  I am in the camp that views the Green Graze as the harpy, but I'm unsure of what will happen in the city once Barristan leads the troops out.  Will Skahaz try and kill other nobles, will they ambush him, is he with them, I just don't know.  But I believe the battle itself will be a quick victory and its the aftermath that is in question.  Will Victarion/Barristan/Tyrion/Brown Ben Plum get along and rule the city, will they be let back in the city without another fight, will they fight each other.  I'm inclined to say they will not fight each other immediately because that's not what they want but if they can't take the city easily or if Dany does not come back soon anything could happen.

The battle of ice is I think the more complicated affair.  First off because its two battles, and second off because there are so many questionable allegiances.  The first battle is at the lakes which should go the way most people think it will.  Stannis has 3 times the men, the defensive position, knowledge his enemy is coming, and the enemy is led by a man called Ser Stupid.  I have been wrong before but I just don't see how Stannis can loose this battle and have it make any sense at all.  He has been described many times as a capable battle commander. 

The battle for Winterfell is where things should/could get interesting.  Will Ramsay head to Castle Black, will Roose head to the Dreadfort, will Barbery Dustin betray Roose, will the rest of the northern lords betray him, will the storm stop, much harder to say.  Even with the Freys defeated, Stannis has no way to storm the castle without some other things happening.  He either has to get his men into the castle disguised, or have men inside the castle open a gate, and then it would still seemingly be a very bloody battle as there are still roughly 4k Bolton soldiers, and Bolton took over the Karstark and other men he took over in the Riverlands when their lords died.

[Euron III Greyjoy]

Battle of Fire

Also The Tattered Prince killed Gorzhak zo Eraz, who was the Supreme Commander that day and switched over to Team Daenerys. That means the replacement Supreme Commander is going to have to come up with a plan on the fly, and the person who is replacing him is nicknamed 'The Drunken Conqueror' which doesn't fill me with confidence.

I don't know who this will bode well for in the end, but with Barristan leading the charge outside the city, Skahaz who is inside the city might go with his plan of slaughtering Hizdahr and the hostages, along with any sons of the harpy they come across. 

 

Battle of Ice

Roose sent the Frey and Manderly forces to attack Stannis in the Crofters village. Roose knew to send them there because Maester Tybald sent Roose a map of Stannis' location. But now thanks to interogation, Stannis knows that someone is coming after him. Due to not knowing the North very well, I think the Frey forces are going to march ahead and attempt to cross the frozen lake, and thanks to Stannis' army digging holes in the ice, the Frey forces are going to fall straight through and die thanks to the weight of their armor. Any Frey forces that survive are going to either have to carry on to try and attack Stannis, who will probably wipe them out, or they could try to retreat and probably get wiped out by the Manderly forces. It seems pretty stupid of the Freys to just run in, but remember the original commander of the Frey forces, Ser Aenys, fell into a trap set by Mors Umber and died. The Frey commander is now Ser Hosteen, who is known to be an idiot, and is even nicknamed 'Ser Stupid' by Stannis.  

I think it would be cool if Stannis makes his army dress up in Frey clothing and Trojan Horse his way into Winterfell. But even if this doesn't happen as you said there are plenty of people in Winterfell who want the Boltons and Freys dead, including Wyman Manderly, who doesn't seem to give a shit whether he lives or dies, which makes him a very dangerous man. 

I personally don't think Jon Snow and his wildlings will have anything to do with the Battle for Winterfell. I think he will probably turn up once the battle is already won. 

[Kandrax]

3 hours ago, EloImFizzy said:

Frey clothing and Trojan Horse his way into Winterfell.

Not, only for Winterfell. He can use Big Walder and his men disguised as Frey soldiers to take Twins.

[Euron III Greyjoy]

3 minutes ago, Kandrax said:

Not, only for Winterfell. He can use Big Walder and his men disguised as Frey soldiers to take Twins.

I think Stoneheart and the Brotherhood will have already fucked over the Freys by then at Devan's wedding. 

[Kandrax]

1 minute ago, EloImFizzy said:

r the Freys by then at Devan's wedding. 

Who says that all of them would be there?

[Euron III Greyjoy]

1 minute ago, Kandrax said:

Who says that all of them would be there?

I don't know what will happen after the battle for Winterfell, but win or loose I don't think Stannis will ever make it back South again. I think Stannis will defeat the Boltons in the North, I think Stoneheart, the Brotherhood, and unhappy Riverlanders will defeat the Freys in the Riverlands, and I think Aegon will defeat the Lannisters in Kings Landing. 

[Kandrax]

3 minutes ago, EloImFizzy said:

I don't know what will happen after the battle for Winterfell, but win or loose I don't think Stannis will ever make it back South again. I think Stannis will defeat the Boltons in the North, I think Stoneheart, the Brotherhood, and unhappy Riverlanders will defeat the Freys in the Riverlands, and I think Aegon will defeat the Lannisters in Kings Landing. 

Personally, i think that he will won the Battle of Ice, but die during it and Ramsay would escape.