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Robb council in Riverrun - who had the best ideas


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9 hours ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

Merrett: He shamed us, the whole realm was laughing, we had to cleanse the stain on our honor. . . Not murder. It was vengeance, we had a right to our vengeance. It was war.

Merrett Frey to Lem Lemoncloak. ASOS, Epilogue.

This passage says to me that Walder would never have committed the wedding had Robb not betrayed him first. Silly Robb.

Yes, he  wouldn't pull RW without beign betrayed first, but regardless of it he would still betray Robb in less brutal way.

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1 hour ago, hodorisfaclessman said:

Temp ceasefire that involves freeing sansa while tywin and renly /stannis tangle

Why would the Lannisters give up Sansa for a temporary deal?

Losing control of over half the Kingdom while fighting off Renly and Stannis just to get Jaime back seems like a really bad deal.

More so as the Starks would still feel abused and non of their major grievances like the pillaging of the Riverlands or unjust execution of Ned would be redressed. So them licking their wounds and coming back for round two later on is obvious.

1 minute ago, Kandrax said:

Yes, he  wouldn't pull RW without beign betrayed first, but regardless of it he would still betray Robb in less brutal way.

Why not? If you are gonna stab someone in the back use a dagger or maybe chainsaw not a toothpick.

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3 minutes ago, Kandrax said:

Yes, he  wouldn't pull RW without beign betrayed first, but regardless of it he would still betray Robb in less brutal way.

Not really a betrayal, they wanted Robb to see sense. 

"Had Stannis won, all might have been different," Ronel Rivers said wistfully. He was one of Lord Walder's bastards.
"Stannis lost," Ser Hosteen said bluntly. "Wishing it were otherwise will not make it so. King Robb must make his peace with the Lannisters. He must put off his crown and bend the knee, little as he may like it."
 
It seems they wanted to convince Robb to sue for peace, rather than actually betray him. They were not going down with the ship.
 
The Freys agreement with Cat was to allow them to cross the bridge and send troops to both the Green Fork and Riverrun, there was no agreement from Walder at the Twins to make Robb king or continue fighting a losing battle. They had fulfilled their obligation. 
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Wow, we've got fantastic discussion going on, I'm glad. There are so many options and no clear-cut winner.

First and foremost, I think the Council with half of Northern and Rivermen lords is a good moment to rethink strategy, given new circumstances. Much has changed since Moat Cailin and Twins and House Stark is on a winning side lately. What objectives are realistic then? Let's give it some consideration.

  • House Lannister and King Joffrey are responsible for imprisoning Eddard and sending him to death. Their armies brought much suffering to Riverlands with death, rape and pillage. Joffrey, even if he's a rightful king in the eyes of Robb, cannot be trusted to keep Pax Baratheon like his father did, and it's only a matter of time he'll try to undermine Robb - I don't believe the North will enjoy the freedom once Joffrey's hold on Iron Throne is solid;
  • in the eyes of Catelyn Stark and bannermen, Lannisters are also responsible for Jon Arryn's death and Bran's assassination attempt;
  • most bannermen have personal reasons to drive House Lannister to the ground. Lord Vance, Raymun Darry, two Karstarks, Daryn and Halys Hornwood are dead. Two Manderlys and Harrion Karstark are POWs. Most realms in the Riverlands are set aflame, Jonos Bracken daughter was raped. Riverlands and the North want revenge across the board, with the exception of Freys - but they are still committed.

For these reasons Robb should continue his war with Lannisters. That was the original reason to raise his armies and now it's more relevant than ever.

Peace with Lannisters and Joffrey (same thing essentially) will allow them Tywin to retreat safely, raise new armies, maybe even get new allies. The North accomplishes nothing, it would be better to stay at home all the time. Damage to morale would be huge. Besides, Blackfish is certain that Tywin sooner or later comes back to men-depleted Riverlands, but now in a much better position.

So their objective should be: to crush Lannister forces, make them ask for a shameful peace AND depose King Joffrey as a secondary goal. Quick run through Lords' strategies:

  1. In order to take Casterly Rock, Robb has to take Golden Tooth first, win his battles with remaining Westerlands forces (not mustered yet) and then lay siege to a well equipped, top5 castle in Westeros. Very risky plan. It could potentially draw Tywin's army back home, but what if Robb's numbers are severely depleted during his campaign? Tywin still has 18-19k soldiers and Roose army is far away.
  2. Joint attack on Harrenhal has some merits. IF they succeed, they have Tywin in their hands and war is basically over. But Harrenhal, even in ruin, is one hell of a fortress. Robb can't conquer it in a short amount of time. At least I don't believe he's able to, for now.
  3. I really like Mallister suggesting that Tywin supply chains can be harrassed and Lannisters can potentially run out of resources soon. This will force them out of Harrenhal, quite likely. I'm not sure if full investment (both circumvallation and contravallation) of Harrenhal is possible with some ~15k soldiers, but even if not, supply lines can be cut off. It takes good maneuvering and gathering intelligence, but it's doable.

In my opinion, Robb should listen to Jason Mallister and Janos Bracken suggestions to form a plan with elements of both. He should send letters to King Renly, Stannis and (perhaps) even Balon to get a sense if they will help with fighting/crippling the Lannisters. Greyjoy will probably still attack because... well, they are Greyjoys, not interested in long term strategical advantages; they prefer short term gains.

As long as Robb doesn't claim a crown for himself, Baratheon bros would be open to form an alliance. If Renly goes north with his MASSIVE army - to join Starks and crush Tywin - it's possible he'll never meet Stannis and stays alive. This is the best possible outcome for the North, imho.

If Renly dies anyway, alliance with Stannis is also beneficial. He will march towards King's Landing first, I presume, but his chances with Tywin pinned at Harrenhal (potentially starving) are much higher. In this scenario, remaining Houses may rethink their policies. It's not a given Tyrells will join Lannisters if they are "drawing dead", and with this new political landscape, House Martell and Arryn might come into play.

Of course this strategy relies on cutting off Tywin's communications and supplies. Casterly Rock is fully stocked, but not Harrenhal.

 

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3 minutes ago, M.Alhazred said:

Robb didn't seem to have any real viable options at that moment.

Yup.

3 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

The Freys agreement with Cat was to allow them to cross the bridge and send troops to both the Green Fork and Riverrun, there was no agreement from Walder at the Twins to make Robb king or continue fighting a losing battle. They had fulfilled their obligation. 

Ehhhh, if you want an easy out, don't demand multiple marriages with someone.

Marriage pacts are supposed to be the most rock solid sort of alliance there is and seeing that Robb would be fighting the Lannisters for the foreseeable future wouldn't take much foresight.

If the Frey's hated the King In the North idea so much then they should have peaced out at that point but they kept on fighting alongside Robb.

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Politically they didn't have any good options. Renly looks good on paper, but their agendas barely overlap, beside their enmity towards the Lannisters. Stannis is by far the weakest claimant at the time, let alone that he hadn't put forth his claim. The Lannisters were not inclined towards a serious effort at peace.

Catelyn had a point that they were largely out of objectives at the time. Stevron's proposed wait and see had some merit, particularly considering the lack of clear options. 

That said if Stannis had sent his letter things would have clicked for both Robb and Catelyn and the former would have declared for him which would in turn have given momentum to his claim. 

Militarily they still had the problem of neutralising the threat of Tywin. In the end Robb did lure him away from Harenhal. Something should have been done about Tywin's raiding parties. It appears though that Rob did not have sufficient control over the riverlords to apply a unified plan. 

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7 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Not really a betrayal, they wanted Robb to see sense. 

"Had Stannis won, all might have been different," Ronel Rivers said wistfully. He was one of Lord Walder's bastards.
"Stannis lost," Ser Hosteen said bluntly. "Wishing it were otherwise will not make it so. King Robb must make his peace with the Lannisters. He must put off his crown and bend the knee, little as he may like it."
 
It seems they wanted to convince Robb to sue for peace, rather than actually betray him. They were not going down with the ship.
 
The Freys agreement with Cat was to allow them to cross the bridge and send troops to both the Green Fork and Riverrun, there was no agreement from Walder at the Twins to make Robb king or continue fighting a losing battle. They had fulfilled their obligation. 

House Frey swore fealty to house Stark no? Does that make their abandonment a betrayl?

 

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1 minute ago, Ylath's Snout said:

 

Ehhhh, if you want an easy out, don't demand multiple marriages with someone.

They 'demanded'? Walder seemed more than happy to remain neutral, it was Cat who had to come up with something to sway him into opening his bridge. 

"Well, you can't!" Lord Walder announced crisply. "Not unless I allow it, and why should I? The Tullys and the Starks have never been friends of mine." He pushed himself back in his chair and crossed his arms, smirking, waiting for her answer.
The rest was only haggling.
 
 
1 minute ago, Ylath's Snout said:

Marriage pacts are supposed to be the most rock solid sort of alliance

No, they are not. Walder has a marriage alliance with the Lannisters, Crakehalls, Braxs, Lyddens and Leffords, not once did Cat think that Walder was honour bound to not fight against them.

We frequently see in-laws turn against each other, both in real and GRRM's imagined setting. 

1 minute ago, Ylath's Snout said:

 

there is and seeing that Robb would be fighting the Lannisters for the foreseeable future wouldn't take much foresight.

Cat certainly did not think so given she wanted peace, as did the Frey's representative at Riverrun. 

It was Cat who made the deal and it is clear that she was not talking about a long drawn out war or crowning her son king. 

1 minute ago, Ylath's Snout said:

If the Frey's hated the King In the North idea so much then they should have peaced out at that point but they kept on fighting alongside Robb.

lol no. People are allowed to change their minds in life, they don't have to sacrifice their lives for a cause that seems doomed.

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4 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

House Frey swore fealty to house Stark no? Does that make their abandonment a betrayl?

 

What abandonment, they wanted for Robb to sue for peace. That is what they are talking about, not abandoning him. 

It is only when he marries Jeyne do they leave him but before they were hoping he would sue for peace, which his own mother wanted him to do. It was the logical course of action for him in that situation. 

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1 minute ago, Bernie Mac said:

They 'demanded'? Walder seemed more than happy to remain neutral, it was Cat who had to come up with something to sway him into opening his bridge. 

Walder is a Bannerman of the Tully's. He is expected to assist his liege lord during war or at the very least not stop others from providing that assistance.

I know you have another opinion but IMHO Walder was blackmailing the Stark's for all he could but in doing so he did tie himself to them. For all intents and purposes Robb was in open rebellion with the Iron Throne at that point so Walder must have damn well known what his demain for marriages could result in a lot of fighting.

The Red Wedding was his out.

9 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Cat certainly did not think so given she wanted peace, as did the Frey's representative at Riverrun. 

Cat is focused only on getting her daughters back. That isn't they case for almost anyone else in the council including Robb as they all still have war-goals that are unfulfilled.

Even if Robb didn't name himself there was still a lot of fighting ahead of them.

10 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

No, they are not. Walder has a marriage alliance with the Lannisters, Crakehalls, Braxs, Lyddens and Leffords, not once did Cat think that Walder was honour bound to not fight against them.

Because his first loyalty should have been to House Tully.

2 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

lol no. People are allowed to change their minds in life, they don't have to sacrifice their lives for a cause that seems doomed.

Yeah that's what I said. They could have noped out at that point and later they did but that doesn't change the fact that what they choose to do was a betrayal of their leige lord.

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12 minutes ago, Ylath's Snout said:
33 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

Walder is a Bannerman of the Tully's. He is expected to assist his liege lord during war or at the very least not stop others from providing that assistance.

 

They are all vassals to the iron-throne-Lord Walder makes clear such a point and Catelyn Tully does not object to it-hell the Tullys weren't even kings-they've always gotten their power to govern the Riverlands from a king-since they are now rebeling against the very power that blessed them with their authority to manage the Riverlands why should house Frey recognize house Tully as having authority as of the moment?  

 

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11 hours ago, Ylath's Snout said:

IMHO the Stannis-Selyse match is set by this point. The best House Tyrell can hope for is for a Tyrell to marry Shireen and act as a King-consort to a future Queen Selyse.

Like I said in my post Stannis has the best claim but his personality and seemingly being under the influence of Melisandre means he isn't that likable and would probably make for a bad King. You can't negotiate with him so the Starks are unlikely to get much out of siding with him, other than dead Lannisters.

Dead Lannisters is what Robb wants more then anything tho lol, it is his whole reason for continuing the war after Neds murder. I hear ya on Stannis though, BUT the gospel on this forum that Stannis is unyielding/Iron etc is an old assement of his character and he actually has "bent" quite a bit. 

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5 minutes ago, Stormking902 said:

Dead Lannisters is what Robb wants more then anything tho lol

Sure but not trying to haggle a bit seems like poor form.

The main thing I suspect that Robb would want is assurances that the Red Witch won't be allowed to burn any more holy ground once they find out about all that and spoils to pay of lords and bring the Riverlands back from the brink.

3 minutes ago, Stormking902 said:

I hear ya on Stannis though, BUT the gospel on this forum that Stannis is unyielding/Iron etc is an old assement of his character and he actually has "bent" quite a bit. 

Sure but isn't that mostly after getting pounded by things like the Blackwater and Renly getting shadow baby'd?

Even so he seems a bit like a high functioning autistic at times with the way seem seems to damn'd thing be "as they should be" with little regard for the facts on the ground.

Throwing in with him is just asking a ton of problems down the line.

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17 minutes ago, Ylath's Snout said:

Walder is a Bannerman of the Tully's. He is expected to assist his liege lord during war

Not when the Tully's are at war with the crown. There is no clear side to take in that situation, we have seen a lot of civil wars in Westeros and frequently have Houses chosen the crown over their liege lord and in some cases Houses staying neutral. 

Given that the Tully's are only in charge of the Riverlands due to the Crown it can be argued that the Crown clearly overrules them. 

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or at the very least not stop others from providing that assistance.

Not when those others are a danger to the crown, or when those others have proven themselves hostile by shooting down every raven coming and going from the Twins. This is not the action of allies.

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I know you have another opinion but IMHO Walder was blackmailing the Stark's for all he could

He got two marriages, one of which was to a possible dead Arya. The Freys were giving far more than they were receiving. 

And lets be clear, the person who tried to blackmail was Cat

"Oh, do you? That's blunt. Why should I let you?"

For a moment her anger flared. "If you were strong enough to climb your own battlements, Lord Frey, you would see that my son has twenty thousand men outside your walls."

It should also be noted that Robb and his generals are only negotiating as a last resort, they wanted to bring down the Twins for their crime of trying to remain neutral. 

The Greatjon began to curse and swear as soon as he saw what awaited them. Lord Rickard Karstark glowered in silence. "That cannot be assaulted, my lords," Roose Bolton announced.
"Nor can we take it by siege, without an army on the far bank to invest the other castle," Helman Tallhart said gloomily. Across the deep-running green waters, the western twin stood like a reflection of its eastern brother. "Even if we had the time. Which, to be sure, we do not."

 

The Freys have little reason to be nice to this northern army, who would have happily destroyed the Twins if they were in a position to do so. Robb attempted no negotiation until it was clear he could not take it by force. 

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but in doing so he did tie himself to them.

No, not at all. A marriage does not make someone a vassal. 

Both branches of House Fossoway fought against the Tyrell's despite Mace's sister and son being married to members of that House. The Florents were initially with Renly despite them being related to Stannis. 

There is no obligation to bind yourself to an in-law, no other House is expected to do that, you seem to be holding the Freys to a different standard. 

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For all intents and purposes Robb was in open rebellion with the Iron Throne at that point so Walder must have damn well known what his demain for marriages could result in a lot of fighting.

Cat did not think that and she was the one negotiating. 

No one knew about the incest, or that Ned would be executed. You are basing your opinion on hindsight, Robb certainly would not have left the North so poorly defended if he was aware of how long he would be gone for. 

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The Red Wedding was his out.

There are many ways to get out, the Red Wedding was, mostly, his revenge. 

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Cat is focused only on getting her daughters back. That isn't they case for almost anyone else in the council including Robb as they all still have war-goals that are unfulfilled.

Cat is the only one who negotiated with Walder, she wanted a quick resolution. 

Cat and the Freys are pretty much on the same page at Riverrun. 

"My lord father would urge caution," aged Ser Stevron said, with the weaselly smile of a Frey. "Wait, let these two kings play their game of thrones. When they are done fighting, we can bend our knees to the victor, or oppose him, as we choose. With Renly arming, likely Lord Tywin would welcome a truce … and the safe return of his son. Noble lords, allow me to go to him at Harrenhal and arrange good terms and ransoms …"

 

So the idea that Cat and Walder have agreed to fight some long war for northern independence is clearly suspect. 

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Even if Robb didn't name himself there was still a lot of fighting ahead of them.

not at all, certainly not from the Freys and Cat's perspective. 

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Because his first loyalty should have been to House Tully.

Why? The Tully's were given rule, the Freys owe them nothing and considering Hoster has been shittalking the Freys for the last two decades why should Walder owe him any loyalty?

The owner of the business you work for fires your manager, do you still do what he tells you to? 

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Yeah that's what I said. They could have noped out at that point

of course they could, they can nope out at any point.

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and later they did but that doesn't change the fact that what they choose to do was a betrayal of their leige lord.

after he betrayed them. 

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3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

You are also allowing hindsight to shape your opinion, at Riverrun Robb had no idea that he'd find a secret entrance into the West, he would have needed to take the Golden Tooth first,

Yes I am. One of the reasons why I discarded Jonos Bracken was because of hindsight, otherwise he would be the clear winner.

But with hindsight once Renly get's killed Robb will probably be butchered by Tarly once he would probably want's to join Stannis. 

4 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Now considering Robb did not have the manpower to take the Twins, expecting him to be able to take a stronger castle with his smaller army is just folly. 

Balon and Theon also never considered the Golden Tooth as a big barrier that would stop Robb, they even took for granted that the castle would fall.

GRRM himself says that the castle is small.

"That's much too big a garrison for a small castle like the Tooth, "

And the Lannister camp let's cleat that they can march on Casterly Rock.

"What can we do? Jaime’s host is all slaughtered or taken or put to flight, and the Starks and the Tullys sit squarely across our line of supply. We are cut off from the west! They can march on Casterly Rock if they so choose, and what’s to stop them? My lords, we are beaten. We must sue for peace.”

And as I mentioned Robb does not need to stay put on CR. He can raise hell on the westerlands like he did. As long as he draw Tywin out of Harenhall he can put his canon plan into action but without Edmure to ruin it and with a much bigger army to fight Tywin if needed.

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2 hours ago, Ylath's Snout said:

Why would the Lannisters give up Sansa for a temporary deal?

Losing control of over half the Kingdom while fighting off Renly and Stannis just to get Jaime back seems like a really bad deal.More so as the Starks would still feel abused and non of their major grievances like the pillaging of the Riverlands or unjust execution of Ned would be redressed. So them licking their wounds and coming back for round two later on is obvious.

 

Because sana is far less valuable than jamie in that world as cat is forced to admit herself  

They would agree to a ceaefire as a)they've lost 2 battles to robb  b) it would make more sense than trying to hold off 2 enemies (robb and renly) at once c) stafford at that stage is rebuilding the remnants of jamies forces and green boys into a 2nd force so some breathing time to drill them is good  d)  the crowns credit and lannister fortune means temp ceasefire would buy time to seek alliances,buy mercs and reach out to the freys through his sister

Tywin is pragmatic as hell ...the trade of a lesser hostage for his precious heir ,the freezing of one enemys attacks while he deals with another  makes sense plus hes clever enough to realise that hes already lost those areas he needs time to get them back to the crown.

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1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Not when the Tully's are at war with the crown. There is no clear side to take in that situation, we have seen a lot of civil wars in Westeros and frequently have Houses chosen the crown over their liege lord and in some cases Houses staying neutral. 

Given that the Tully's are only in charge of the Riverlands due to the Crown it can be argued that the Crown clearly overrules them. 

Not when those others are a danger to the crown, or when those others have proven themselves hostile by shooting down every raven coming and going from the Twins. This is not the action of allies.

He got two marriages, one of which was to a possible dead Arya. The Freys were giving far more than they were receiving. 

And lets be clear, the person who tried to blackmail was Cat

"Oh, do you? That's blunt. Why should I let you?"

For a moment her anger flared. "If you were strong enough to climb your own battlements, Lord Frey, you would see that my son has twenty thousand men outside your walls."

It should also be noted that Robb and his generals are only negotiating as a last resort, they wanted to bring down the Twins for their crime of trying to remain neutral. 

The Greatjon began to curse and swear as soon as he saw what awaited them. Lord Rickard Karstark glowered in silence. "That cannot be assaulted, my lords," Roose Bolton announced.
"Nor can we take it by siege, without an army on the far bank to invest the other castle," Helman Tallhart said gloomily. Across the deep-running green waters, the western twin stood like a reflection of its eastern brother. "Even if we had the time. Which, to be sure, we do not."

 

The Freys have little reason to be nice to this northern army, who would have happily destroyed the Twins if they were in a position to do so. Robb attempted no negotiation until it was clear he could not take it by force. 

No, not at all. A marriage does not make someone a vassal. 

Both branches of House Fossoway fought against the Tyrell's despite Mace's sister and son being married to members of that House. The Florents were initially with Renly despite them being related to Stannis. 

There is no obligation to bind yourself to an in-law, no other House is expected to do that, you seem to be holding the Freys to a different standard. 

Cat did not think that and she was the one negotiating. 

No one knew about the incest, or that Ned would be executed. You are basing your opinion on hindsight, Robb certainly would not have left the North so poorly defended if he was aware of how long he would be gone for. 

There are many ways to get out, the Red Wedding was, mostly, his revenge. 

Cat is the only one who negotiated with Walder, she wanted a quick resolution. 

Cat and the Freys are pretty much on the same page at Riverrun. 

"My lord father would urge caution," aged Ser Stevron said, with the weaselly smile of a Frey. "Wait, let these two kings play their game of thrones. When they are done fighting, we can bend our knees to the victor, or oppose him, as we choose. With Renly arming, likely Lord Tywin would welcome a truce … and the safe return of his son. Noble lords, allow me to go to him at Harrenhal and arrange good terms and ransoms …"

 

So the idea that Cat and Walder have agreed to fight some long war for northern independence is clearly suspect. 

not at all, certainly not from the Freys and Cat's perspective. 

Why? The Tully's were given rule, the Freys owe them nothing and considering Hoster has been shittalking the Freys for the last two decades why should Walder owe him any loyalty?

The owner of the business you work for fires your manager, do you still do what he tells you to? 

of course they could, they can nope out at any point.

after he betrayed them. 

Whar are you smoking?

House Tully are house Freys LIEGE lord, they owe them loyalty because it is there duty they SWORE an OATH to house Tully to send troops when ever the Tullys call, the fact the Tullys are fighting against the Crown is grounds to perhaps stay neutral fine BUT to not allow Robb and his army through the Twins to relieve the siege of RR is Treason to the fullest and they deserve the sword. The laughing Storm revolted against the Crown by himself no help and his bannerman still followed him why? Because he is there LIEGE lord and there first duty is to him. Thats how fuedal society works ... Robb was the Karstarks King yet when there lord was killed they left Robb because lord Karstark is who there first alegiance lies then Robb. When Alexander the great killed some of his lords for treason he had to march on his own army to insure there loyalty and take hostages.  

 

Hoster has been making fun of Walder for decades for good reason, Walder is a coward and an Oath breaker and doesnt deserve to be a lord as far as Hoster is concerned. 

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16 hours ago, thi4f said:

pay tribute to Renly Baratheon in hopes of creating unbeatable alliance, going south to join his armies (Jonos Bracken)

I never really considered this a viable option simply because it involves Robb bending the knee to another King - his northern lords would not take that quietly. Although if somehow he did find an arrangement with Renly that avoided his death via Stannis as has been mentioned, the combined forces of Robb and Renly would have been truly formidable even for the Lannisters.

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