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Elia Martell: Yes, another Septa Lemore speculation


Alexis-something-Rose

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10 hours ago, corbon said:

Elia clearly was a different sort even if she possibly had the same steel as the Sandsnakes underneath. You'll need to present some textual evidence for your supposition she had that steel. 

The information about her is sparse, I'll give you that. But why wouldn't she had steel? No, she's not the Sand Snakes or Arianne or even her mother who stuck it to Tywin but good after he was insulting to her, but it doesn't mean Elia didn't have some of that.

You don't have to agree with me or the thread. We all have our views on the characters, I just don't happen to think that Elia being of delicate health means that she was just that. 

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5 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

The information about her is sparse, I'll give you that. But why wouldn't she had steel? No, she's not the Sand Snakes or Arianne or even her mother who stuck it to Tywin but good after he was insulting to her, but it doesn't mean Elia didn't have some of that.

You don't have to agree with me or the thread. We all have our views on the characters, I just don't happen to think that Elia being of delicate health means that she was just that. 

So present some evidence then.
There's evidence she was sickly and weak her whole life and that she coo-ed over even the ugliest baby. I don;t think that fits with Elia being 'like the sandsnakes' which was the claim you made.

I'm not saying Elia definitely had no steel underneath, just that there is no evidence of it anywhere (yet at least). But if you are going to throw statements out for speculation, like "she was like the sandsnakes" you should be prepared to hear counter-arguments.

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15 hours ago, corbon said:

No, she was actually weak and sickly her whole life.

Right, we have it from multiple sources, including her brothers Oberyn and Doran, that Elia's health was always an issue.

"It is not for such as me to say what might have been in your brother's heart, Your Grace. The Princess Elia was a good and gracious lady, though her health was ever delicate." (Barristan Selmy in ASOS: Daenerys IV)

Elia found it all exciting. She was of that age, and her delicate health had never permitted her much travel. (Oberyn in ASOS: Tyrion X)

I was nine when Elia came, a squire in service at Salt Shore. When the raven arrived with word that my mother had been brought to bed a month too soon, I was old enough to understand that meant the child would not live. Even when Lord Gargalen told me that I had a sister, I assured him that she must shortly die. Yet she lived, by the Mother's mercy. (Doran in AFFC: Captain of Guards)

A bride for our bright prince. Jon Connington remembered Prince Rhaegar's wedding all too well. Elia was never worthy of him. She was frail and sickly from the first, and childbirth only left her weaker. After the birth of Princess Rhaenys, her mother had been bedridden for half a year, and Prince Aegon's birth had almost been the death of her. She would bear no more children, the maesters told Prince Rhaegar afterward. (Jon Connington in ADWD: Griffen Reborn)

Early in the year 279 AC, Rhaegar Targaryen, Prince of Dragonstone, was formally betrothed to Princess Elia Martell, the delicate young sister of Doran Martell, Prince of Dorne. (TWOIAF: Aerys II)


 

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On 9/11/2018 at 6:30 PM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

There is zero doubt that the Martell women are deadly. Oberyn's daughters in particular. Just based on what we know of Arianne and her cousins, two of whom are working under disguises (Sarella at the Citadel and Tyene as a septa in King's Landing), I think Elia may well be like them. I don't think being nice and kind or being sickly makes a person meek or helpless. I think those women are all cut from the same cloth.

There is no indication that Martell women are inherently deadly and dangerous, as the eldest Sand Snakes are described to be, any more than Tully women, or Lannister women, or Stark women, or Tyrell women.

The three eldest Sandsnakes, who are bastards, and aren't actually Martells in name, are described as being deadly and dangerous like their father Oberyn is described as having been deadly and dangerous.

Neither Arianne or Elia in particular, nor Martell women in general, are described or hinted to be inherently deadly or dangerous, and there's no indication Elia was anything like Oberyn's three eldest daughters.

For all we know, Elia was much more like Doran than Oberyn, or perhaps very different than both. I am sure she had the passion of a loving mother, but that is a far cry from being anything like the eldest Sand Snakes.

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Honestly, guys, I'm not talking about Elia being deadly or someone who uses poisons or kept knives on her. What I'm talking about is inner strength and willfulness and the resolve the Martell women have shown in the story. That's it. I would be quicker to believe that Elia was a meek woman if we hadn't met the other women in her family. I think she may have been similar to them in that regard. Operative word being think

I know that Elia was delicate of health, didn't travel a lot because of that. And that she cooed at an ugly baby might mean that she saw past the physical deformities and saw an innocent baby? 

I just don't think that being delicate of health negates these things. And this is my personal opinion on the matter.  

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2 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Honestly, guys, I'm not talking about Elia being deadly or someone who uses poisons or kept knives on her. What I'm talking about is inner strength and willfulness and the resolve the Martell women have shown in the story. That's it. I would be quicker to believe that Elia was a meek woman if we hadn't met the other women in her family. I think she may have been similar to them in that regard. Operative word being think

I know that Elia was delicate of health, didn't travel a lot because of that. And that she cooed at an ugly baby might mean that she saw past the physical deformities and saw an innocent baby? 

I just don't think that being delicate of health negates these things. And this is my personal opinion on the matter.  

Well, thats much more reasonable. Its just not what you were saying before.

I don't think anyone has argued against that, just against the statements you made when perhaps trying to express that.
 

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I don’t think this is at all possible. We have Jon Connington’s POVs. He thinks about both Septa Lemore and Elia at different points, and so surely we would know if they were the same person. It would be very weird if that never entered his head. Added to that, his thoughts about the two characters were different.

Most importantly though, I fail to see the point of keeping her identity secret after Aegon’s is revealed. Not only would her identity being revealed win Dorne over, it would prove Aegon’s identity beyond any reasonable doubt. I can see the reasoning for her not revealing her identity while Aegon hides his, but after that it’s pointless.

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On 9/10/2018 at 3:53 PM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I know exactly how this is going to sound. But as far as things go, Elia Martell being Septa Lemore is the thing that makes the most sense to me. 

This actually crept up on my while reading replies from the Ashara, post Harrenhal possibilities and The Illyrio/Aegon thing. This is obviously a speculation, but there are some things that do fit, I think This speculation assumes that Young Griff is Aegon Targaryen, the son of Elia and Rhaegar. 

 

 

 

What if Elia Martell didn't die in King's Landing as we have been told? What if she is still alive and was living on a poleboat until recently? 

There is only one person in the world who can vouch for Young Griff's true identity and convince Jon Connington that the boy is the real deal, and that's the woman who gave birth to him. 

Going through the test, there are two things that the alleged baby Aegon, Elia and Oberyn have in common and that's the way they died and by whose hand they died. They had their heads bashed in by Gregor Clegane.

Aegon's appearance after Gregor was through with him; 

Yes Last night he had dreamed of Rhaegar's children. Lord Tywin had laid the bodies beneath the Iron Throne, wrapped in the crimson cloaks of his house guard. That was clever of him; the blood did not show so badly against the red cloth. The little princess had been barefoot, still dressed in her bed gown, and the boy . . . the boy . . . (Eddard XII, AGOT 45)

While we do not get a description of what the boy looks like, we know that it was nothing pretty to look at. 

Kevan Lannister is the one who gives us a description.

"A feigned boy is what he has," said Randyll Tarly.

"That may be. Or not." Kevan Lannister had been here, in this very hall when Tywin had laid the bodies of Prince Rhaegar's children at the foot of the Iron Throne, wrapped up in crimson cloaks. The girl had been recognizably the Princess Rhaenys, but the boy... a faceless horror of bone and brain and gore, a few hanks of fair hair. None of us looked long. Tywin said it was Prince Aegon, and we took him at his word. (Epilogue, ADWD)

We have Ned's own thoughts on Elia;

Some said it had been Gregor who'd dashed the skull of the infant prince Aegon Targaryen against a wall, and whispered that afterward he had raped her mother, the Dornish princess Elia, before putting her to the sword. (Eddard VII, AGOT 30)

Ned is is going on what he heard. Elia was raped and killed by Gregor Clegane, but he doesn't tell us how he killed her, only that he killed her. Later in ASOS, Gregor Clegane confirms the manner of her death. 

"Elia of Dorne," they all heard Ser Gregor say, when they were close enough to kiss. His deep voice boomed within the helm. "I killed her screaming whelp." He thrust his free hand into Oberyn's unprotected face, pushing steel fingers into his eyes. "Then I raped her." Clegane slammed his fist into the Dornishman's mouth, making splinters of his teeth. "Then I smashed her fucking head in. Like this." As he drew back his huge fist, the blood on his gauntlet seemed to smoke in the cold dawn air. There was a sickening crunch. (Tyrion X, ASOS 70)

In Tyrion I, ADWD 1, Tyrion tells us that Oberyn's head was smashed to bloody ruin after Gregor was done. 

If Oberyn's head was smashed to bloody ruin as we are told, then could we possibly draw a parallen between that and the state of Elia's head and even body (since she was also raped) after Gregor Clegane was through with her? Would she have been recognizable?

The reason everyone knows Oberyn was the one who had been killed was because the combat happened before witnesses. As far as we know Aegon and Elia's murders were not witnessed. It was Elia, the child and Gregor. And would Gregor have recognized Elia or simply raped and killed some woman who may have passed for her because of her hair, eye color, skin tone, who had an infant in her arms?

This brings me to Rhaenys and what Tywin had to say about her.

"It is justice. It was Ser Amory Lorch who brought the girl's body, if you must know. He found her hiding under her father's bed, as if she believed Rhaegar could still protect her. Princess Elia and the babe were in the nursery a floor below." (Tyrion VI, ASOS 53)

Why is Rhaenys not with her mother and her brother in the nursery? She must have been there at some point as Ned tells us that when her body was presented, she was barefoot, still dressed in her bed gown. There must have been a point at which she left the nursery. But why would she leave the nursery if she was there with her mother? She's a little girl, and children are unpredictable and slippery for sure.

Tywin gives us his own explanation on this. He implies that she was looking for her father's protection. We can go off on that, Rhaenys slipped out of the nursery and went looking for her father when her mother had her back turned. It's definitely possible. 

But what if she went looking for her mother instead? It's possible that Rhaegar and Rhaenys had a close relationship, but he was gone a year and the constant in Rhaenys's life would have been her mother, not her father and her mother was supposedly in the nursery. I know, it's very tenuous.

Septa Lemore and the Shy Maid

The identities of Griff and Young Griff were revealed to us in ADWD as Jon Connington and Aegon Targaryen. This is what I have personally always believed (and hope does spring eternal), and I am well aware of the Blackfyre Conspiracy and Quaithe's mummer's dragon. I think the idea is that we are supposed to question and even believe that Aegon is a fake. And why wouldn't we? We are told of this absolutely gruesome death. And the way Elia and Aegon and Rhaenys died is gutting. There is so much savagery in the way they were killed.

Going off with the idea that Aegon is the real deal, there is one person in the world who can vouch for his true identity and that is his mother, the woman who gave birth to him. Varys and Illyrio would have had to produce some kind of evidence for Jon Connington to buy what they were selling. Jon Connington was in King's Landing, he knows what Varys is. He has no reason to trust his word at all. The evidence had to have been very convincing for Jon Connington to accept to sully his honor and live the next twelve years of his life on a poleboat.

What if it's Elia they produced? As far as someone Jon Connington would believe at her word, she is it, imo.

Tyrion gives us a physical description of Septa Lemore.

  • She is more handsome than pretty but still easy on the eye;
  • She has brown hair, though interestingly enough, Tyrion never mentions that there's greys in it. Either Septa Lemore has no grey hairs, or the hair is dyed;
  • She is past forty;
  • She has stretch marks that could have only come from childbirth;

We don't have much on Elia Martell. Some of it comes from Cersei and Cersei has a penchant for putting other women down.

  • She has black eyes (and a flat chest :rolleyes:)
  • Her hair color is not commented on, so Elia having brown hair is certainly possible, though the general assumption seems to be that she has black hair like Oberyn. 
  • We know from her year of birth that she would be about 43 years old, which would put her right into that age bracket Tyrion thinks Septa Lemore is in;
  • We know she has had two pregnancies, which would have left their mark on her body;

As far as the speculation that Ashara Dayne is Septa Lemore goes, Tyrion never comments on our septa's eye color, even though we have Catelyn (Catelyn II, AGOT 6) and Meera in her tale of the tourney at Harrenhal (Bran II, ASOS 24) making mention of her eye color. Barristan compares Ashara's eyes to Dany's (The Kingbreaker, ADWD 67).

Tyrion spends a bit of time looking at Young Griff's eyes and how they look in this light and what they look like in that light. He also mentions Jon Connington's eyes, but says absolutely nothing about Septa Lemore's eyes. Perhaps it's because her eyes don't hold his attention in the way that Young Griff and Griff held in. Septa Lemore's eyes are not purple, they're not blue, they're not green, they're not grey. So what if they are black?

Barristan gives us a little something about Elia's personality (Dany IV, ADWD 23);

  • Good woman;
  • Kind and clever;
  • Gentle heart and a sweet wit;

These are all traits that Septa Lemore seems to embody. I know, weak argument. The woman is a septa. 

Septa Lemore was very kind to Tyrion before and after she finds out he is a Lannister. After he saves Young Griff from the stoneman, she is the one who pushes the water from Tyrion's lungs after he is fished out from the river. Elia could have easily picked up the technic during her time at the Water Gardens. We know the Water Gardens are populated with children and I imagine the maester as well as other people would have to be prepared should one of the children drown in the pools.

If this is Elia Martell in disguise, then she doesn't seem to blame the son for his father's sins, which falls in line with the way Doran sees things compared to the Sand Snakes and Arianne.

To sum up;

If Young Griff is truly Aegon Targaryen, then Septa Lemore may very well be Elia Martell. She escaped King's Landing with her baby with Varys's assistance. Both would have been replaced by other people. In Elia's case, possibly a Dornish handmaid. It's always interesting to see the lengths to which people are willing to go for their lords and ladies.

Elia we are told died the same way as the infant boy believed to be Aegon and her brother, Oberyn. All three had their brains smashed in. We are told the baby was not recognizable, we know that Oberyn's head was reduced to bloody ruin (which may have made it difficult to identify him had he not died so publicly). It may have been the same thing with Elia in the nursery. She may have been difficult to identify after Gregor Clegane was through with her.

In the meantime, Varys helps Elia escape with her son. As a mother, she would have been faced with the very difficult and heartbreaking choice of leaving her daughter behind to an uncertain or a very certain faith. She would have sacrificed one child to save the other. And Aegon is the one who won out because of who he is, Rhaegar's heir and in line for the Iron Throne.

They sail away to Essos and remain in Pentos for five years until Jon Connington enters the story and then it's on to the Shy Maid.

Who is she, really? Why is she here? Not for gold, I'd judge. What is this prince to her? Was she ever a true septa? (Tyrion VI, ADWD 22)

I'd say that if Septa Lemore is Elia Martell, then most of these questions can be answered and there is a lot at stake for her.

 

This might be plausible if Young Griff actually was/is Prince Aegon/Aegon VI but he is not. Illyrio pretty much confirmed that to the Imp. He is of Dragon/Targaryen/Valaryian Lineage but he is not the poor dead Prince. He is the Mummer's (Varys) Dragon. Septa Lemore most likely Ashara Dayne.

Ellia is Dead

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11 hours ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

This might be plausible if Young Griff actually was/is Prince Aegon/Aegon VI but he is not. Illyrio pretty much confirmed that to the Imp. He is of Dragon/Targaryen/Valaryian Lineage but he is not the poor dead Prince. He is the Mummer's (Varys) Dragon. Septa Lemore most likely Ashara Dayne.

Ellia is Dead

Why would Ashara be with young griff if he is not Aegon?

Also Illyrio was referring to the golden company switching sides. Although interpretations can differ on this, it does not mean the fAegon theory is confirmed. And he is right black or red, a dragon is a dragon. But a mummer’s dragon is not a dragon at all, it is a pole with clothes on it to look like a dragon. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, norwaywolf123 said:

I cannot remember that it was, so it is probably only my perception of the event.

Yea me too. But I don’t think Tywin really cared if Gregor was knighted. I think it was just poor judgement on Rhaegar’s part.

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1 hour ago, Crona said:

Why would Ashara be with young griff if he is not Aegon?

Also Illyrio was referring to the golden company switching sides. Although interpretations can differ on this, it does not mean the fAegon theory is confirmed. And he is right black or red, a dragon is a dragon. But a mummer’s dragon is not a dragon at all, it is a pole with clothes on it to look like a dragon. 

 

 

Just a hunch. A Blackfyre is preferable than a Baratheon and even more so than Cersei’s widely known/believed to be Incest Bastards.

Septa Lenore is certainly someone else who is posing as her, however the instinct suggests it is someone already mentioned and most likely believed dead.

What influences me is The Prophesies revealed to Danny. All indicators are that Young Griff is not Aegon but it also suggests that he will be popular and just may overthrow the Lannistersand take the throne. Either way, he is most likely doomed.

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12 hours ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

This might be plausible if Young Griff actually was/is Prince Aegon/Aegon VI but he is not. Illyrio pretty much confirmed that to the Imp. He is of Dragon/Targaryen/Valaryian Lineage but he is not the poor dead Prince. He is the Mummer's (Varys) Dragon. Septa Lemore most likely Ashara Dayne.

This is my problem with the Ashara speculation. Her eyes are described twice in the story. 

The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes. (Catelyn II, AGOT 6)

He had only to close his eyes to see her, with her long dark hair tumbling about her shoulders and those haunting purple eyes. (The Kingbreaker, ADWD 67)

Two descriptions using the same adjective, haunting. Beyond the actual eye color, there seems to be this "haunting" quality to Ashara's eyes. Tyrion comments on Septa Lemore's stretch marks, but never on her eyes when he does spend time telling us about Jon Connington's pale blue eyes and what color Young Griff's eyes are in this light and that light, but not a peep about the eyes of a woman whose identity he is still trying to figure out. And it's not like he doesn't spend time with her. They sew together, they chat. She even invites him to Young Griff's lessons with her.  

And Barristan pushes things further by giving us something of a "comparison" between Ashara and Elia in that same chapter. 

His choice would have been a young maiden not long at court, one of Elia's companions . . . though compared to Ashara Dayne, the Dornish princess was a kitchen drab. (The Kingbreaker, ADWD 67)

For me, personally, this is the thing that eliminates Ashara. If Septa Lemore has this quality to her eyes and the writer decided to omit that for the sake of mystery, then I think it would be bad writing.

I also happen to disagree about the mummer's dragon.

I get that these are things that are generally accepted in the fandom, and I'm not gonna lie, the first time I read ADWD, I was convinced that Septa Lemore was Ashara. But 7 years later, I've had enough time to stew in it and I just don't think that's who Lemore is. 

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1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

This is my problem with the Ashara speculation. Her eyes are described twice in the story. 

The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes. (Catelyn II, AGOT 6)

He had only to close his eyes to see her, with her long dark hair tumbling about her shoulders and those haunting purple eyes. (The Kingbreaker, ADWD 67)

Two descriptions using the same adjective, haunting. Beyond the actual eye color, there seems to be this "haunting" quality to Ashara's eyes. Tyrion comments on Septa Lemore's stretch marks, but never on her eyes when he does spend time telling us about Jon Connington's pale blue eyes and what color Young Griff's eyes are in this light and that light, but not a peep about the eyes of a woman whose identity he is still trying to figure out. And it's not like he doesn't spend time with her. They sew together, they chat. She even invites him to Young Griff's lessons with her.  

And Barristan pushes things further by giving us something of a "comparison" between Ashara and Elia in that same chapter. 

His choice would have been a young maiden not long at court, one of Elia's companions . . . though compared to Ashara Dayne, the Dornish princess was a kitchen drab. (The Kingbreaker, ADWD 67)

For me, personally, this is the thing that eliminates Ashara. If Septa Lemore has this quality to her eyes and the writer decided to omit that for the sake of mystery, then I think it would be bad writing.

I also happen to disagree about the mummer's dragon.

I get that these are things that are generally accepted in the fandom, and I'm not gonna lie, the first time I read ADWD, I was convinced that Septa Lemore was Ashara. But 7 years later, I've had enough time to stew in it and I just don't think that's who Lemore is. 

Some people think that Septa Lenore is actually Leanna and Young Griff is the first born twin and Jon the second of simply Griff looked more Targ, thus .... 

 

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1 hour ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

Some people think that Septa Lenore is actually Leanna and Young Griff is the first born twin and Jon the second of simply Griff looked more Targ, thus .... 

Lyanna's death is established in both the narration and quotes of literally the first chapter of the only POV character who witnessed her death.

AGOT: Eddard I:  There were three tombs, side by side. Lord Rickard Stark, Ned's father, had a long, stern face. The stonemason had known him well. He sat with quiet dignity, stone fingers holding tight to the sword across his lap, but in life all swords had failed him. In two smaller sepulchres on either side were his children.

Brandon had been twenty when he died, strangled by order of the Mad King Aerys Targaryen only a few short days before he was to wed Catelyn Tully of Riverrun. His father had been forced to watch him die. He was the true heir, the eldest, born to rule.

Lyanna had only been sixteen, a child-woman of surpassing loveliness. Ned had loved her with all his heart. Robert had loved her even more. She was to have been his bride.

"She was more beautiful than that," the king said after a silence. His eyes lingered on Lyanna's face, as if he could will her back to life. Finally he rose, made awkward by his weight. "Ah, damn it, Ned, did you have to bury her in a place like this?" His voice was hoarse with remembered grief. "She deserved more than darkness …"

"She was a Stark of Winterfell," Ned said quietly. "This is her place."

"She should be on a hill somewhere, under a fruit tree, with the sun and clouds above her and the rain to wash her clean."

"I was with her when she died," Ned reminded the king. "She wanted to come home, to rest beside Brandon and Father." He could hear her still at times. Promise me, she had cried, in a room that smelled of blood and roses. Promise me, Ned. The fever had taken her strength and her voice had been faint as a whisper, but when he gave her his word, the fear had gone out of his sister's eyes. Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm, dead and black. After that he remembered nothing. They had found him still holding her body, silent with grief. The little crannogman, Howland Reed, had taken her hand from his. Ned could recall none of it. "I bring her flowers when I can," he said. "Lyanna was … fond of flowers."


AGOT: Eddard II: Ned did not feign surprise; Robert's hatred of the Targaryens was a madness in him. He remembered the angry words they had exchanged when Tywin Lannister had presented Robert with the corpses of Rhaegar's wife and children as a token of fealty. Ned had named that murder; Robert called it war. When he had protested that the young prince and princess were no more than babes, his new-made king had replied, "I see no babes. Only dragonspawn." Not even Jon Arryn had been able to calm that storm. Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south. It had taken another death to reconcile them; Lyanna's death, and the grief they had shared over her passing.

AGOT: Eddard XIII: He was walking through the crypts beneath Winterfell, as he had walked a thousand times before. The Kings of Winter watched him pass with eyes of ice, and the direwolves at their feet turned their great stone heads and snarled. Last of all, he came to the tomb where his father slept, with Brandon and Lyanna beside him. "Promise me, Ned," Lyanna's statue whispered. She wore a garland of pale blue roses, and her eyes wept blood.

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19 hours ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

This might be plausible if Young Griff actually was/is Prince Aegon/Aegon VI but he is not. Illyrio pretty much confirmed that to the Imp.

How so?
Many people argued that the Golden Company would never fight for a Targaryen, only a Blackfyre, But the fact remains, as Illyrio said, a dragon is a dragon. Aegon has declared as a Targeryen, not a Blackfyre, and the Golden company fights for him under that banner, in order to get home, and win rewards.
I can't see anything Illyrio tells Tyrion that has any particularly strong bearing on Aegon's true ancestry.

8 hours ago, Crona said:

Why would Ashara be with young griff if he is not Aegon?

Because she believed he was. Varys could have fooled her. She wouldn't have actually spent that much time around baby Aegon, having had to leave court for her own pregnancy.

8 hours ago, Crona said:

Also Illyrio was referring to the golden company switching sides. Although interpretations can differ on this, it does not mean the fAegon theory is confirmed. And he is right black or red, a dragon is a dragon. But a mummer’s dragon is not a dragon at all, it is a pole with clothes on it to look like a dragon. 

Agreed.
IMO it is foolishness to hold too tightly to any particular theory about the truth of (f)Aegon as yet, because basically pretty much all options are open and fairly reasonable. each of us may favour one over another, but IMO anyone who is totally convinced one way or another has just chosen belief over reason.

6 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

This is my problem with the Ashara speculation. Her eyes are described twice in the story. 

The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes. (Catelyn II, AGOT 6)

He had only to close his eyes to see her, with her long dark hair tumbling about her shoulders and those haunting purple eyes. (The Kingbreaker, ADWD 67)

Two descriptions using the same adjective, haunting. Beyond the actual eye color, there seems to be this "haunting" quality to Ashara's eyes.

One of those comparisons is from someone who never met her, ie from reports by others.
But yes, in her youth, near 20 years ago, as a young noble maiden at court, Ashara was beautiful and people's memories of her, formed at her most memorable times, were of a haunting quality to her eyes.

OTOH, that was many years ago and Septa Lemore has lead a very different and much harder life since. Time and life change people.
The most beautiful eyes I ever saw were of a girl a friend of mine worked with in a bookshop. We dropped in to see her on the way to something else and it was the day of her 21st. Her eyes were magnificent, bright green, shining with excitement as she told us about her party plans.
I passed through the bookshop a few weeks later and saw her stacking books. Her eyes were nice, but nothing special.
Ashara's 'rep' comes from a time of wonder and excitement in her life. Lemore is at a completely different time, place and situation. If Lemore is Ashara it is not at all remarkable that Lemore's eye's do not get the same rap as Ashara's did.

6 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Tyrion comments on Septa Lemore's stretch marks, but never on her eyes when he does spend time telling us about Jon Connington's pale blue eyes and what color Young Griff's eyes are in this light and that light, but not a peep about the eyes of a woman whose identity he is still trying to figure out. And it's not like he doesn't spend time with her. They sew together, they chat. She even invites him to Young Griff's lessons with her.  

Hmm, funny that, isn't it. The one person who's eye colour would be a dead give away to a certain identity is the one person whom Tyrion fails to mention the eye-colour of...
And GRRM gives him an excuse too - her eyes are not what he is looking at when he does describe her.

And you have one thing wrong. Tyrion is not trying to figure out who she is. He explicitly recognises that she has her secrets and that he doesn't want to know her.
Basically, he's only interested in one thing from her and is quite explicit about it, at least to himself (us).

Quote

Septa Lemore laughed. Like everyone else aboard the Shy Maid, she had her secrets. She was welcome to them. I do not want to know her, I only want to fuck her. She knew it too. As she hung her septa's crystal about her neck, to nestle in the cleft between her breasts, she teased him with a smile.

 

6 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

And Barristan pushes things further by giving us something of a "comparison" between Ashara and Elia in that same chapter. 

His choice would have been a young maiden not long at court, one of Elia's companions . . . though compared to Ashara Dayne, the Dornish princess was a kitchen drab. (The Kingbreaker, ADWD 67)

For me, personally, this is the thing that eliminates Ashara. If Septa Lemore has this quality to her eyes and the writer decided to omit that for the sake of mystery, then I think it would be bad writing.

Note that Lemore as 'more handsome than pretty' (which is how attractive older women, and she is 'older' at 40-ish, have traditionally been described) who still clearly has a natural attraction for men (not just Tyrion).
This fits very well with a 15-20-years-later Ashara who has lived a non-noble life through that time. Note that Ashara is not described as 'pretty', but as "fair" and 'haunting". It seems her attractiveness was mostly based on other qualities than simple 'prettiness'.
This might be the wrong generational example, but I think of the Hepburns, Audrey and Katherine as a perfect example of this. Audrey is incredibly 'pretty'. The older Katherine was a very handsome woman (and the younger Katherine very beautiful). I see Ashara as having a more Katherine look - beautiful, yes, but a different kind of beauty than prettiness, which in time becomes handsomeness (or did, in the way that language was used before the last decade or two.

6 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I get that these are things that are generally accepted in the fandom, and I'm not gonna lie, the first time I read ADWD, I was convinced that Septa Lemore was Ashara. But 7 years later, I've had enough time to stew in it and I just don't think that's who Lemore is. 

Well, I've heard this reasoning before, and for me I find it flawed, and I've tried to show why.
However, thats ok. We can think differently. I believe I understand your reasoning, but think it is flawed. You no doubt can say the same. Thats ok. One of us will be wrong, which is no great deal in the scheme of things. :)

In the mean time, its a nice breaker from tender prep madness to discuss it, thanks.

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