Elia Martell: Yes, another Septa Lemore speculation

[Alexis-something-Rose]

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Here's a question for those who support the Elia theory.  Why is the Golden Company supporting them?  We are given pretty heavy hints that it is not just money.

Yes, we're told that the men of the company want to go home. 

Harry Strickland doesn't even wanna go to Westeros without Dany, her dragons and the Unsullied. If this guy is supposed to put a Blackfyre on the throne, he sure as hell is in no hurry to do it without Dany. 

The Golden Company was fine going to Westeros with Viserys. They were fine going to Westeros with Dany. They officers found out about Aegon only after they reached Volon Therys. 

We don't know who these members of the GC are. Who is old enough in the company to even remember Maelys the Monstrous? Harry Strickland, maybe? Whose else?

The company has people like Lysono Maar and Black Ballaq and people who fled Westeros like Rolly Duckfield and had in their membership a Targaryen loyalist in Jon Connington. If Tristan Rivers is really a Darry bastard, then there are no bigger Targaryen loyalists. Who knows how many more joined the GC at one point or another.

Whatever the mission of the GC was in the days of Bittersteel and Maelys the Monstrous, it has been 40 years since he died and Bittersteel has been dead even longer than that.

I wrote this about Young Griff and there's a part about the Golden Company there. And there was a reddit thread about this yesterday here. 

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Yes, we're told that the men of the company want to go home. 

Harry Strickland doesn't even wanna go to Westeros without Dany, her dragons and the Unsullied. If this guy is supposed to put a Blackfyre on the throne, he sure as hell is in no hurry to do it without Dany. 

The Golden Company was fine going to Westeros with Viserys. They were fine going to Westeros with Dany. They officers found out about Aegon only after they reached Volon Therys. 

We don't know who these members of the GC are. Who is old enough in the company to even remember Maelys the Monstrous? Harry Strickland, maybe? Whose else?

The company has people like Lysono Maar and Black Ballaq and people who fled Westeros like Rolly Duckfield and had in their membership a Targaryen loyalist in Jon Connington. If Tristan Rivers is really a Darry bastard, then there are no bigger Targaryen loyalists. Who knows how many more joined the GC at one point or another.

Whatever the mission of the GC was in the days of Bittersteel and Maelys the Monstrous, it has been 40 years since he died and Bittersteel has been dead even longer than that.

I wrote this about Young Griff and there's a part about the Golden Company there. And there was a reddit thread about this yesterday here. 

That's all very well.  But either you did not know what I was referring to or you dodged the question.  The Golden Company, reputed to never have broken a contract, breaks contract for Aegon.  In reference to which Illyrio explains that some contracts are written in ink, others in blood.    What does he mean?

But I have not checked your links yet, so maybe I'll do that now.

[Mister Smikes]

6 hours ago, corbon said:

Quote please. I don't recall anything like this. Nothing I can find suggests Arriane ever looked anything un-Doran-like (not to mention nothing tells us what Mellario looked like). She's short, dark and large bosomed, As a child she was pudgy - which matches with short and large bosomed. Thats it. 

I think you have me there.  I remembered - or misremembered - a very specific quote, but can't find it now.  

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Yes, but you are positing something a lot more than this.

Aegon looked like a Targaryen. What does that mean?

Not necessarily much, until GRRM nails it down.  All he said was that he looked MORE like a Targ.  More than what?  More than sister Rhaenys, evidently, from context.  And that's not even from the books, but from an ancient SSM.  From the books we have Kevan's memory of fair hair.  Which is me as a child (brown now).

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Generally speaking the "Targaryen look" is: tall, often lean, tending toward pale skinned, silver or golden hair, purple eyes.  Quite distinctive.

Blue eyes can turn brown with age.  Blond hair can turn brown with age.  It's quite common.

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Yes, Aegon was a baby so tall and lean are not confirmed,

Yup.   Yup.  Yup.

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and yes, Targaryens can also have other looks, but the above is the signature "Targaryen Look". And GRRM confirms directly that Aegon followed this look

That hugely overstates what he actually said.

However, they are trying to pass off Young Griff as Aegon.  That would seem to imply people remember Baby Aegon as a blond and more-or-less blue-eyed baby boy.  That would be a better argument than trying to make too much of "more like a Targ" compared to Rhaenys. 

Does not change the facts that infants can change.

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And Frog?
He's short, stocky, olive skinned, dark eyed and black haired. 

Short and stocky not a problem, as you already explained.  (But he's actually described as "short legged" -- IIRC his overall height seems pretty ordinary - all we know for sure is that he is shorter than Pretty Meris, who stands 5'11").

I don't recall him being ever being described as having olive skin, or any other distinct shade of skin.

He has brown hair and brown eyes.  A particularly dark shade of brown is never specified.  So what has happened to him (if he is Aegon) cannot be shown to be more remarkable than many real world babies as they age.

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This is not a small difference.
It is in fact virtually a perfectly antithetical look. Frog (and Arrianne and Doran) couldn't possibly look further from a Targaryen and still be from the same continent.

Well, you COULD actually make him more antithetical by misremembering the evidence, which you have apparently done.  I guess I'm not the only one with a sometimes faulty memory.

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It provides solutions to nothing of importance, it just ties together a few irrelevant unknowns.
Mellario only provides connections and resolutions to herself - a bit part character with a tenuous connection to Westeros.

Mellario potentially connects to lots of things.  To Doran, to the Golden Company, to Illyrio, to Varys, to Serra, to Young Griff.

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A chance for more than they can get in Essos. A chance to go "home" and gain their own lands and titles etc. More and more permanent rewards than they have any chance of in Essos.

A rather disappointing explanation to Illyrio's enigmatic hint.

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A dragon is a dragon. What does any current member of the Golden Company really care whether it be black or red?

I don't think the rank and file care or know anything.  A secret shared with an entire company is no secret.  But the rank and file are not the ones deciding to break contract.

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This is all fairly explicit and shouldn't need pointing out, but people romanticise the Golden Company far more than the current membership deserves.

So I guess Illyrio is guilty of romanticizing them too.  Maybe Tyrion guessed correctly, and there is actually a whole lot of money in cheese, and Illyrio just paid them off.

[Hippocras]

I think she is either Jeyne Swann, one of the ladies from the Vale casually mentioned to have become septas, or Ashara.

I do see holes in the Ashara idea of course, it is just that Ashara's death is quite mysterious and ambiguous and her role in history so pivotal so she needs to have some payoff in terms of relevance to the current story - though that need not be as Lemore.

Jeyne Swann would have been about the same age as Elia and Ashara, so the age fits. Having lived with outlaws for some time she would have been considered a tainted lady so becoming a not terribly devout septa makes sense. And the Swann family is hiding in corners all over this story, which needs some payoff at some point as well. Of course, if not Jeyne, the kidnapped lady had a septa with her but that one remains nameless.

The ladies of the Vale on the other hand are contenders to be Littlefinger's source of information about Aegon, who clearly he knows about and has been planning for for a long time. He said way back in the first book that he knew Varys's secret. Of course, Jeyne Swann is also a potential Littlefinger source so the Vale septas are not top candidates.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

8 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

That's all very well.  But either you did not know what I was referring to or you dodged the question.  The Golden Company, reputed to never have broken a contract, breaks contract for Aegon.  In reference to which Illyrio explains that some contracts are written in ink, others in blood.    What does he mean?

I'm not dodging anything. I do have a theory about it that I think reasonably explains why Viserys turned to the GC and why Jon Connington joined them in the first place. 

I'm just going to keep it for myself.

[Mister Smikes]

42 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I'm not dodging anything. I do have a theory about it that I think reasonably explains why Viserys turned to the GC and why Jon Connington joined them in the first place. 

I'm just going to keep it for myself.

You start by saying you're not dodging the question, and go on to say you ARE dodging the question, but on purpose.  But fair enough.  You don't owe me any explanations.

[LynnS]

1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I'm not dodging anything. I do have a theory about it that I think reasonably explains why Viserys turned to the GC and why Jon Connington joined them in the first place. 

I'm just going to keep it for myself.

Do tell!

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

17 hours ago, corbon said:

Literally everything we know about Lemore fits with the few things that we know about the apparently opaque and unknown Ashara. And almost everything we know about Ashara fits with what we know about Lemore.

I think you try to make the evidence look a lot stronger than it actually is by listing out a long bunch of points that don't actually add much weight to the argument. Ok, she was Arthur's sister and met JonCon, Oberyn, and the Starks at Harrenhal. That doesn't really move the needle at all. So the argument basically boils down to her being Elia's handmaiden for a time (it's never stated that they were close, and since she was at Starfall when Ned showed up she presumably stopped serving Elia at some point, probably due to pregnancy) and both women having dark hair (I know this wasn't revealed until ADWD but what indications were there that she had fair hair?), giving birth to a child (if Barristan's story is accurate), and being at least somewhat attractive. Given how she's described elsewhere, Ashara seems to have been stunningly beautiful and while Tyrion lusts after Lemore, I don't think she's really described in the same terms. Ashara's eyes as described also don't seem like the sort of thing that you only notice if caught in a certain light while she's wearing particular clothing. Additionally, Lemore is described as being passed forty, and Martin has said that Ashara Dayne would be in her thirties if she was still alive. I'm not saying that's conclusive proof that she isn't Ashara, as Tyrion isn't infallible and could be off by several years at least in his estimate of her age, but I do think it's worth pointing out that this is something we are told that doesn't fit with what we know about Ashara.

17 hours ago, corbon said:

You don't think 'purple eyes' in ASoIaF are a huge red-flag? To even fairly casual readers?

I think they would be a red flag, but it wouldn't necessarily identify the woman as Ashara and IMO most casual readers would be more likely to initially make the connection of purple eyes = Targaryen. Again, Ashara Dayne is way, way more prominent on message boards than she is in the books themselves. Prior to this passage, Ashara's eye color is only explicitly referenced once early in AGOT, plus Meera's reference to the maid with laughing purple eyes in ASOS. A lot of readers who don't spend time on fan forums might not recall that at all in the midst of all the references to purple eyes being a defining trait of Targaryens.

17 hours ago, corbon said:

Alleras is a minor mystery that is of little importance to any major plot. Its not important for GRRM to keep it hidden and most readers wouldn't even notice the minor connection that sets it up as a mystery.

I guess my point is that I don't think this "mystery" merits what in my opinion is flawed writing by concealing a super obvious observation from a POV character who has no reason not to notice it. If the reader figures out that Lemore is Ashara, so what? For Alleras, realizing who she is does in fact add major significance to the plot given that she's a niece of the Prince of Dorne illicitly infiltrating the Citadel, where important stuff is clearly going down. If Lemore is Ashara, then ... one of Elia's handmaidens who had a rumored fling with Ned is tutoring Aegon? Like it's cool and all, but what is so earthshattering about this that it requires having Tyrion not notice a very uncommon and obvious feature? Even if you figured out her identity, there'd still be a lot of mystery as to how exactly she came to be there, why she's there, who was her baby and what happened to it, etc. This isn't equivalent to Ned not explicitly thinking that Jon is Lyanna's son in AGOT.

Again, I don't mean to totally dismiss the theory, as Ashara is probably as good a guess as any. I certainly think she's more likely than Mellario, so I'm not sure why you're suggesting I think otherwise. I'm just saying that at this point the only thing that really could point to it IMO is Ashara having been Elia's handmaiden. Everything else is vague enough to the point of being nearly meaningless, and comes with caveats (Tyrion's estimate of her age, her being described as attractive but not really how you'd expect Ashara to be described, no notice of purple eyes, etc.). My main point is that when an author writes a mystery, they shouldn't have to rely on POV characters missing super obvious things just to throw off the reader, especially when there would still be significant ambiguity and the importance of the reveal isn't IMO worthy of justifying such a trick.

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

--

I can go either way too on Lemore being Ashara, but I disagree she was unimportant in the books. Why would the Reeds tell a story all about who she danced with if she was noone of significance to what took place in the Rebellion, and consequently also AFTER the Rebellion, and why make note of the fact that her body was never found? So I don't need Lemore to be Ashara, but I do need more filling in of why we needed to hear about who she danced with and why her survival was left as a distinct and remarked upon possibility.

As for Lemore, while I do think she could be Ashara and will not rule it out just because Tyrion's POV never actually said anything either way about Lemore's eye colour, I tend to think Lemore must be someone else connected to Elia, but not so close to Dorne and House Martel. This is why I thought maybe Jeyne Swann or her septa who were accompanying Elia to KL when they were captured by the Kingswood Brotherhood. It seems to me that link to the outlaws makes it somewhat logical that one of them might now be on the other side of the Narrow Sea. Jeyne Swann was "rescued" but may easily have been considered "soiled" afterwards and become, for a while, a not so devout Septa with rather Dornish sensibilities.

[Megorova]

14 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Whatever the mission of the GC was in the days of Bittersteel and Maelys the Monstrous, it has been 40 years since he died and Bittersteel has been dead even longer than that.

I wrote this about Young Griff and there's a part about the Golden Company there.

GC's mission didn't changed, it's the same now as it was then, because Varys is Maelys' son. Sera was Varys' half-sister, fathered by Maelys' cousin - Daemon the Unnumbered. Someone, possibly Shiera Seastar, gave to GC a prophecy that if a Blackfyre will have a child with Jenny of Oldstones, then that child will succeed in helping GC to put a Blackfyre on Iron Throne. Two Blackfyres to seize Iron Throne - a Mummer and his Dragon, GRRM wrote them as a parallel to Biblical Red Dragon/Varys and the Antichrist/fAegon.

That article that you wrote, it's really good, with all those explanations why GC refused to support Viserys, though you missed there one fact - Robert's Rebellion was a golden opportunity for the Golden Company to victoriously return to Westeros. They could have offered their services either to Aerys or to Robert, in exchange for the pardon (in case with Aerys) or for the promise from Robert to share with them lands of those lords who in the Rebellion remained loyal to Targaryens, such as Dornishmen and the Reachmen. Though they didn't used that opportunity.

That's because they already had fAegon. Shiera Seastar, guided by the prophecy, helped septa Lemore (real name Jeyne Swann) to conceive a Blackfyre-child, fAegon.

fAegon's father is Barristan Selmy, whose mother was Aenys Blackfyre's daughter. In the span of the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion Golden Company went to Westeros to retrieve Aenys' family from Stonehelm castle (where Barristan's father served as a squire to Lord Swann and where he met Aenys' daughter), not to conquer 7K or to avenge Aenys' unjust execution. Swanns are relatives of Blackfyres, because Johanna Swann, the Black Swan of Lys, was Larra Rogare's mother and great-grandmother of Daemon I Blackfyre. That's why when Aenys came to Westeros, prior going to King's Landing to attend there the Great Council, he left his family at Stohenelm, under the protection of their Swann-relatives. There was many twin-children in those generations of dragonseeds. So could be that Daemon the Unnumbered was Barristan's older twin-brother. One child went to Essos with the mother and the Golden Company, and the younger twin, Barristan, remained with his father at Westeros.

fAegon was conceived on April 1st of 281 AC at the Kingswood, on the same night when a comet was passing above King's Landing, where Rhaegar and Elia on that same night conceived the real Aegon. Though Shiera, same as Rhaegar, miscalculated some omens and thus both of those children (Aegon and fAegon) are not Promised Princes. Jon is, and Rhaego, and Dany.

[Megorova]

7 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Of course, if not Jeyne, the kidnapped lady had a septa with her but that one remains nameless.

That was Shiera Seastar in shadow-glamour. She accompanied Jeyne to the Kingswood to prepare for her a love-potion that Jeyne then used on Barristan to conceive his child. Read my post in this thread, the one above this.

[Hippocras]

5 minutes ago, Megorova said:

That was Shiera Seastar in shadow-glamour. She accompanied Jeyne to the Kingswood to prepare for her a love-potion that Jeyne then used on Barristan to conceive his child. Read my post in this thread, the one above this.

Given that Shiera Seastar has not been mentioned by name and only in passing once otherwise within the entire series I would say anything to do with her is quite tinfoily. She is only in history books, not the main series, so history is where she will stay.

And yes, you could say the same argument applies to Jeyne Swann, however HOUSE Swann is all over this series, and the Kingswood Brotherhood was a pivotal moment in the lives of Jaime and Barristan Selmy so her appearance would be less out of the blue.

[Megorova]

11 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

This is why I thought maybe Jeyne Swann or her septa who were accompanying Elia to KL when they were captured by the Kingswood Brotherhood. It seems to me that link to the outlaws makes it somewhat logical that one of them might now be on the other side of the Narrow Sea. Jeyne Swann was "rescued" but may easily have been considered "soiled" afterwards and become, for a while, a not so devout Septa with rather Dornish sensibilities.

The attack of the Kingswood Brotherhood on Jeyne and her septa was staged by Jeyne and the leader of KB - Simon Toyne.

Simon Toyne was a brother of Myles Toyne, captain-general of the Golden Company. His companion, the Smiling Knight, was a Blackfyre from a female-line. Varys approached the original founder of the Kingswood Brotherhood - Wenda the White Fawn, real name possibly Meris Cafferen, and offered her a place at the Golden Company in exchange of her giving her leadership over the Kingswood Brotherhood to Simon.

In my opinion, Big Belly Ben, one of KB's members, is Strong Belvas - Varys' agent.

During the attack everything went wrong, and instead of just letting Barristan to retrieve Jeyne from KB, both Simon and the SK got killed. I think that could be because the SK didn't wanted to give Jeyne to Barristan, he himself wanted to be a Blackfyre who will conceive a Promised Prince, who is destined to get Iron Throne for Blackfyres. Thus at first he sent Simon to kill or wound Barristan at the tournament at Storm's End, where Simon participated as the mystery knight, but he was the defeated by Barristan.

When Meris/Wenda arrived to Essos, Myles Toyne already knew that his brother is dead, and he blamed Meris in what happened. So instead of adhering to his previous promise, he ordered his people to rape and mutilate Meris. That's what happened to her. Meris is Brienne's mother, and both of them are Duncan the Tall's descendants. She's a dragonseed, that's why Dany's dragons didn't attacked her and instead fried Quentyn.

Thus, Jeyne and her septa were not in any danger from KB, they all were co-conspirators. And Jeyne's family is aware of where she is and what is she doing. Balon Swann is one of Varys' agents and he is working for Blackfyres, and for Jeyne's son.

[Megorova]

2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Given that Shiera Seastar has not been mentioned by name and only in passing once otherwise within the entire series I would say anything to do with her is quite tinfoily. She is only in history books, not the main series, so history is where she will stay.

She is Quaithe, and the Three-Eyed Crow. Also this people are her disciples - maester Marwyn, Mirri Maz Duur, Euron Greyjoy. Also she was a shadow-cat that attacked Mance Rayder, and she was a wilding-healer that treated his wounds afterwards. She used magic, that silk from Asshai, to make Mance to desert from Night's Watch and to unite all Wildlings into a single tribe, to oppose the Others when they will arrive. She's a prophet, so she orchestrated many events in the past to control what will hapen in the future.

2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

And yes, you could say the same argument applies to Jeyne Swann, however HOUSE Swann is all over this series, and the Kingswood Brotherhood was a pivotal moment in the lives of Jaime and Barristan Selmy so her appearance would be less out of the blue.

That's my point - Shiera Seastar is also a Swann by blood.

Johanna Swann is Larra Rogare's mother. Larra Rogare and Serenei of Lys (Shiera's mother) is the same person. So Johanna Swann is Shiera's paternal great-grandmother and also her maternal grandmother, Shiera is a Swann and a Targaryen on both sides.

Thru Larra Rogare all Targaryens after Aegon IV are partially Swanns by blood, including all Blackfyres, and Martells starting from the children of Daenerys Targaryen (wife of Maron Martell). The last four generations of Starks are also partially Swanns. Khal Drogo, Brown Ben Plumm, the current Sealord of Braavos, Petyr Baelish, Catelyn, Lysa and Edmure Tully - all of them are partially Swanns. Thus, Swanns are everywhere.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

56 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

I can go either way too on Lemore being Ashara, but I disagree she was unimportant in the books. Why would the Reeds tell a story all about who she danced with if she was noone of significance to what took place in the Rebellion, and consequently also AFTER the Rebellion, and why make note of the fact that her body was never found? So I don't need Lemore to be Ashara, but I do need more filling in of why we needed to hear about who she danced with and why her survival was left as a distinct and remarked upon possibility.

I'm not saying Ashara is unimportant or that there isn't a good chance she's still alive and will show up (as Lemore or someone else). I'm saying that she simply isn't as prominent in the text itself as she is on boards like this where people discuss theories endlessly, and a character as mysterious as Ashara is useful to be slotted into various theories - hence why there are a bunch of theories about her being the mother of Jon, Daenerys, or fAegon, or being Lemore, Quiathe, etc. Through 5 books, her name is mentioned 10 times across 5 chapters (plus Bran's chapter where Meera tells the Harrenhal story without mentioning her name). That's common enough for people to notice, but a reader who's never been exposed to the fan community and all the theories could easily forget that she had purple eyes or otherwise not think of her when Lemore comes up. Also, just as a technicality, Martin never specifies in the text whether her body was found, he just says she threw herself into the sea, and confirmed in a SSM that her body was never found. I don't think anyone in the books ever considers that she may still be alive, though I agree there's a decent chance she is.

As to why Howland tells Meera this story (and Meera tells Bran), it's hard to say without knowing exactly what happened and what Howland knows. From a bit of a meta POV, Martin introduces Ashara as a possible mother for Jon in the first book, and in ASOS (the same book where Meera tells this story) Ned Dayne tells Arya about how, according to his Aunt Allyria, Ashara and Ned fell in love at Harrenhal (though he thinks Wylla is Jon's mother). I'm personally not sold on Ned and Ashara actually being a thing (I think Brandon is more likely), but either way this is probably George's way of telling us the initial basis for the rumors. If something did go down between Ashara and one of the Stark brothers (which seems to fit with Barristan's recollections), Howland probably knows about it and that might be why he bothers to make note of her and who she danced with. It's also possible that Howland knows she played a role in the events at the end of the war beyond simply being at Starfall when they showed up, and that's why he comments on her.

[Megorova]

1 hour ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

If something did go down between Ashara and one of the Stark brothers (which seems to fit with Barristan's recollections), Howland probably knows about it and that might be why he bothers to make note of her and who she danced with. It's also possible that Howland knows she played a role in the events at the end of the war beyond simply being at Starfall when they showed up, and that's why he comments on her.

Howland told that story to his children because it's the same sort of story as "How your mother and father met and fell in love". His wife, Jyanna, is Ashara Dayne.

During that feast many girls cried after listening to Rhaegar's sad song, and amongst them Lyanna. Benjen mocked Lyanna's tears, so she poured her wine over his head. And that's why Rhaegar noticed her and for the rest of that evening was watching her. And thus he saw when Howland pointed out to her those three squires that previously attacked him. Two days later all three knights to whom those squires served, were defeated by the mystery knight and had to apologise to Howland. Rhaegar noted that Howland was amongst spectators, but Lyanna wasn't there. Thus he figured out that the mystery knight is Lyanna.

Later that evening he heard Aerys' ramblings and that he ordered to unmask the mystery knight on the next morning. Thus Rhaegar sent Ashara to warn Lyanna to get rid of the shield and to not continue her participation in tournament. By that time Lyanna had already accomplished what she wanted - avenged Howland, so she returned his shield, and Howland maybe didn't even knew at that time that she took it and repainted it. Thus, when Aerys' people would have searched thru the camp and found that shield, they would have thought that Howland is the mystery knight, and then Aerys would have executed him. So Lyanna told Ashara that she returned the shield to wherever Howland's stuff was stored. And because Howland during that tournament was staying at Ned's tent, the shield also was there.

Ashara sneaked into Ned's tent to get the shield, and someone saw her going there. That's how she got dishonored at Harrenhal and by rumours got connected to Starks. Because she was unable to reveal the real reason what she was doing in the middle of the night in that tent. She had no choice and was unable to stop those rumors because they were a cover for what was really happening then. Barristan Selmy knew the truth. He was one of Rhaegar's confidants, so when Rhaegar sent Ashara to Lyanna, Barristan offered to help her, but Ashara decided against involving Barristan and instead turned for help to Stark. Apparently Ned found out what happened, because Ashara came into his tent to take the shield. That's how he knew that Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree, and why he reacted not like his brothers, when Rhaegar crowned Lyanna as the Queen of Love and Beauty. On Rhaegar's part it was a gesture of acknowledging her courage. Because she participated in tournament to defend her friend's honor, when that guy himself was unable to do so.

Rhaegar sent Ashara to warn Lyanna, because he was unable to do so himself. It was already very late. Majority of participants, guests and attendants were already sleeping. Though, if someone saw Lyanna and Rhaegar together, it would have been a huge scandal. And Ashara was there, available and willing to help. She was one of Elia's ladys-in-waiting, and she was Arthur's sister. Thus Rhaegar trusted to her that she won't reveal Lyanna's secret to Aerys or his people, or anyone else. If Aerys found out that the mystery knight was a girl, he would have executed her and her entire family. Because he would have thought that with this gesture they (Starks) mocked him.

That's how Howland's honor was defended at that tournament, and instead Ashara's honor got stained. He felt guilty for what happened and kept apologising to Ashara. Probably he even did something to gain her forgiveness, and that's how they eventually fell in love. Meera is approximately same age as Jon. Thus Howland was with Ashara at that time when Rhaegar supposedly kidnapped Lyanna (or when they eloped). Possibly Howland was with Ashara at Starfall, when Rhaegar brought Lyanna there. After Lyanna got pregnant and Gerold Hightower came to Starfall to bring Rhaegar back to King's Landing, Howland went to Storm's End. That's how Ned found out where Lyanna is. When he came to Starfall, Ashara already gave birth to Howland's daughter Meera, and Wylla originally was Meera's wet-nurse. Then Lyanna died while giving birth to Jon, and Wylla became his wet-nurse. Ned together with Howland went to the Tower of Joy, where they killed Arthur Dayne and the other two Kingsguards, to prevent them from going to newly-crowned King Robert and revealing to him where they were and what they did, and about Lyanna and Jon. Aftrewards they went back to Starfall, Ned gave Arthur's sword to Ashara, and then Ashara with that sword and with her newborn daughter and Howland went to The Neck, and Ned with Jon, Wylla and Lyanna's body went to King's Landing (by ship). That's how Robert knew about Wylla.

And that's where the sword is - Ashara has it. She will play for Jon the same role as Lady of the Lake did for King Arthur - she will give the magic sword to the future King. Dawn of Daynes is Azor Ahai's Lightbringer, and Jon not only was conceived and born at Starfall, he is also 1/8 Dayne, thru Egg's mother, Dyanna Dayne. Thus Jon is Azor Ahai reborn. He will play in the plot same role as Jesus in the Bible, while fAegon will play the role of Antichrist, fake Messiah. And septa Lemore is fAegon's mother, the Perfumed Seneschal. She is a parallel to Lady Jonquil. In Medieval Ages jonquil (it's a flower) oil was used as a basis for making perfumes. Jeyne's ancestor, Johanna Swann (Larra Rogare's mother), worked as a courtesan in The Perfumed Garden owned by Rogares.

So GRRM gave a lot of clues that are keys to many mysteries, but they are very subtle, and thus 99% of ASOIAF's readers totally missed EVERYTHING.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Barristan Selmy knew the truth.

If your theory is true, did he? Barristan seems to actually think that Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhal. Who is the man who dishonored her there that he refers to, in your opinion?

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Ned with Jon, Wylla and Lyanna's body went to King's Landing (by ship). That's how Robert knew about Wylla.

I seriously doubt that Ned took Jon with him to KL. Robert says that Ned told him about Wylla once, he never says he met her. It seems much more likely that Robert asked Ned who his bastard's mother was the first time he saw him after finding out (whether that was when Ned went to KL or in the Greyjoy Rebellion) and Ned gave the name Wylla (because he couldn't just refuse to give Robert an answer the way he did to Catelyn) and presumably little more.

[Megorova]

17 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Barristan seems to actually think that Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhal. Who is the man who dishonored her there that he refers to, in your opinion?

And she WAS dishonored. Someone saw her in the middle of the night sneaking into Ned Stark's tent. That alone was enough to ruin her reputation. She's a noble lady, in Medieval times. Doesn't matter whether she really had sex with someone, or not, whether she was meeting in that tent with someone, or a tent was empty. That's how she was dishonored. Just by being there at night, alone (a lady without a chaperone) in a guy's sleeping quarters.

17 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I seriously doubt that Ned took Jon with him to KL. Robert says that Ned told him about Wylla once, he never says he met her. It seems much more likely that Robert asked Ned who his bastard's mother was the first time he saw him after finding out (whether that was when Ned went to KL or in the Greyjoy Rebellion) and Ned gave the name Wylla (because he couldn't just refuse to give Robert an answer the way he did to Catelyn) and presumably little more.

Ned and Robert met at KL after Lyanna's death, that's when they made up after their quarrel. Ned brought Lyanna's body to KL, for Robert to say goodbye to her. It would have been problematic to transport her body via land, by sea-route it would have taken just a few days instead of weeks. So from Starfall they all went together, Ned with Lyanna's body went off the ship, and the others continued to sail towards White Harbor (or at first they made a stop at The Neck to ditch Reeds-trio). Afterwards at KL Silent Sisters de-fleshed Lyanna's body, and then after Robert's crowning Ned with Lyanna's bones went via land to Winterfell. Or something like that.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

35 minutes ago, Megorova said:

And she WAS dishonored. Someone saw her in the middle of the night sneaking into Ned Stark's tent. That alone was enough to ruin her reputation. She's a noble lady, in Medieval times. Doesn't matter whether she really had sex with someone, or not, whether she was meeting in that tent with someone, or a tent was empty. That's how she was dishonored. Just by being there at night, alone (a lady without a chaperone) in a guy's sleeping quarters.

I am asking you who you think the man is referenced here in Barristan's thoughts:

Quote

But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. 

 

37 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Ned and Robert met at KL after Lyanna's death, that's when they made up after their quarrel.

I know Ned went to KL. Maybe he even took Lyanna's bones with him for Robert to say goodbye. I don't think there's any way he brought Jon with him. Sending Wylla ahead to WF makes way more sense, there's no way he would risk bringing baby Jon into the capital.

[corbon]

On 4/1/2021 at 5:29 PM, Mister Smikes said:

I think you have me there.  I remembered - or misremembered - a very specific quote, but can't find it now.  

I suspect it was the pudgy and flat chested one. Obviously she's 'changed' and is no longer flat chested, but thats purely a kid of around 12ish who hasn't started developing but wants to, vs a full grown woman. And its not really a change. She's short and buxom, which is a common grown-up version of the slightly pudgy kid.

On 4/1/2021 at 5:29 PM, Mister Smikes said:

Not necessarily much, until GRRM nails it down.  All he said was that he looked MORE like a Targ.  More than what?  More than sister Rhaenys, evidently, from context.  And that's not even from the books, but from an ancient SSM.  From the books we have Kevan's memory of fair hair.  Which is me as a child (brown now).

Blue eyes can turn brown with age.  Blond hair can turn brown with age.  It's quite common.

Yup.   Yup.  Yup.

That hugely overstates what he actually said.

However, they are trying to pass off Young Griff as Aegon.  That would seem to imply people remember Baby Aegon as a blond and more-or-less blue-eyed baby boy.  That would be a better argument than trying to make too much of "more like a Targ" compared to Rhaenys. 

Does not change the facts that infants can change.

I think that this is a very disingenuous argument. 
We a clear "Targaryen look". And they are basically opposite from Frog (and Arrianne). We have a Martell mother and a Targaryen father. One child is written as looking more like a Martell and the other as looking more like a Targaryen. Which, in context, doesn't just mean 'he looked less Martell', it means he had the Targaryen look. Saying otherwise is pure sophistry. The context gives more meaning than just the words alone.
In Doran's family, we see the Martell (salty Dornish - the same look is referenced elsewhere) look from Oberyn (tall, slender, dark eyes, dark hair - using Oberyn since Doran doesn't get a useful description) and we see both Arrianne and Quentyn with a salty Dornish colouring plus the stature they got from Mellario (Oberyn is tall and lean, Arianne (and Quentyn) short and buxom(/stocky) and said to favour her mother (which is likely the stature, since her hair and eyes match Oberyn but stature is opposite to his).
This is GRRM's westerosi signature - 'family 'looks' that stay consistent, whether its Stark, Tully, Lannister, Baratheon, Targaryen or Martell.  And you are trying to tell us that a child GRRM identified with one 'look' (with supporting evidence from Kevan) he is then hiding as a complete opposite 'look'?

No, Period.

On 4/1/2021 at 5:29 PM, Mister Smikes said:

Short and stocky not a problem, as you already explained.  (But he's actually described as "short legged" -- IIRC his overall height seems pretty ordinary - all we know for sure is that he is shorter than Pretty Meris, who stands 5'11").

It is a problem, which is why I brought it up, just not a provably insurmountable one as I conceded. It is further evidence added to the heaped pile.
Quentyn is not just 'short legged', he's also 'stocky', which is a description given to shorter people, never to taller people (while it could technically apply to a taller person as it doesn't by definition refer to height, it never is as tall people who could be described as stocky are always described in other ways, such as huge, broad, barrel chested, etc.)
Arrianne and Quentyn are given the same body type, which shows off in slightly different ways in males and females. And apparently it comes from Mellario. 

On 4/1/2021 at 5:29 PM, Mister Smikes said:

I don't recall him being ever being described as having olive skin, or any other distinct shade of skin.

Correct, my mistake. I his-applied that from Arrianne and teh salty dornish look in general. Horse before the cart on that one, sorry..

On 4/1/2021 at 5:29 PM, Mister Smikes said:

He has brown hair and brown eyes.  A particularly dark shade of brown is never specified. 

Yes it is. The colour of new-turned earth which is usually dark, nearly black from a distance until it dries lighter (and is no longer newly-turned).

On 4/1/2021 at 5:29 PM, Mister Smikes said:

So what has happened to him (if he is Aegon) cannot be shown to be more remarkable than many real world babies as they age.

No, thats the disingenuous part.
A large part of GRRM's story here are distinctive family looks. Baby Aegon is noted as looking like a Targaryen, which tends to tall lean and beautiful with silver or gold hair and purple eyes. He had fair hair. 
To hide him as a short, stocky, ugly, dark haired, dark eyed young man just doesn't work. Period.

On 4/1/2021 at 5:29 PM, Mister Smikes said:

Well, you COULD actually make him more antithetical by misremembering the evidence, which you have apparently done.  I guess I'm not the only one with a sometimes faulty memory.

I don't claim to be perfect, but I do admit my errors when they are pointed out (as did you, for which you have my respect).

On 4/1/2021 at 5:29 PM, Mister Smikes said:

Mellario potentially connects to lots of things.  To Doran, to the Golden Company, to Illyrio, to Varys, to Serra, to Young Griff.

To Doran yes, that would be just her adding that correction to fAegon's party.
Notably Doran appears not to know about fAegon (at least until the Golden Company invades Westeros) - his plans for both his children being aimed at Viserys and Dany, neither at fAegon, which is one of the many weak points about the Mellario theory.

The rest are already connected to Aegon without Mellario and she provides no extra 'connection' to them. She also had no particular connection to them prior to the conspiracy.

In other words, no Mellario provides nothing in this context. Your own list fails at every step.

On 4/1/2021 at 5:29 PM, Mister Smikes said:

A rather disappointing explanation to Illyrio's enigmatic hint.

Or not. Thats opinion.
Illyrio is a showman. He's full of enigmatic hints of this or that, most of which mean nothing. Thats his character. He's also full of shit more often than not.

Quote

"Illyrio could not have been expected to know that the girl would choose to remain at Slaver's Bay."

"No more than he knew that the Beggar King would die young, or that Khal Drogo would follow him into the grave. Very little of what the fat man has anticipated has come to pass." 

...

"Which plan?" said Tristan Rivers. "The fat man's plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.

All of this is correct, at least in its own way. The point being, Illyrio is not the Master Schemer in control of everything that he presents himself as. Its a false front, showmanship. In truth he fumbles along as best he can just like anyone else and his schemes don't actually work the way he thinks they will. He is smart enough to have multiple plans in play and to adapt to circumstances, but he doesn't have the control he insinuates and that too many readers give him credit for.

We also see here that the Golden company expected (and accepted) Targaryen's to support, not just Blackfyres. Everyone pushing the Golden Company/Blackfyres-only angle complete ignores this basic fact which kills their argument stone dead.

On 4/1/2021 at 5:29 PM, Mister Smikes said:

I don't think the rank and file care or know anything.  A secret shared with an entire company is no secret.  But the rank and file are not the ones deciding to break contract.

Irrelevant. The leadership were already going to support Viserys, then Dany. So they were always willing to 'break contract' when the right opportunity came along vis-à-vis Westeros. 

On 4/1/2021 at 5:29 PM, Mister Smikes said:

So I guess Illyrio is guilty of romanticizing them too. 

Yes, inasmuch as he 'showmans' everything he says. 
The actual evidence of who and what they are, is significantly different than how he presents them (or at least how you present them and indicate its partly from him - I don't think its necessary I go back and check that it is from him)

On 4/1/2021 at 5:29 PM, Mister Smikes said:

Maybe Tyrion guessed correctly, and there is actually a whole lot of money in cheese, and Illyrio just paid them off.

They don't need Illyrio's payoff. Lands and keeps of their own are worth more than gold. Doubly so from Homeless Harry (and Miles Toyne before him), who unlike most of the company actually has ancestral lands to recover.

On 4/2/2021 at 2:04 AM, Mister Smikes said:

You start by saying you're not dodging the question, and go on to say you ARE dodging the question, but on purpose.  But fair enough.  You don't owe me any explanations.

@Alexis-something-Rose, he's got you there.