Elia Martell: Yes, another Septa Lemore speculation

[Jaenara Belarys]

20 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Ignore this, it randomly popped up.

Anyway. We know that Ashara lived in Dorne, Starfall specifically. We also know that Dorne has very relaxed attitudes for this medieval setting. We know that in Dorne, it doesn't matter if you're a maiden. Thus, the only time it would be a problem for Ashara, to be seen entering Ned's tent would be if she was going to marry a lord outside of Dorne.  

 

 

[Megorova]

3 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. 

Howland Reed. She was dishonored because of him. Not by him, but because of him. All that was his fault.

3 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I don't think there's any way he brought Jon with him. Sending Wylla ahead to WF makes way more sense, there's no way he would risk bringing baby Jon into the capital.

I didn't meant that he took Jon to KL. He left him on the ship. Though Ned told to Robert that he supposedly fathered a bastard and that the child and his mother, Wylla, will go to Winterfell ahead of Ned.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

21 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Howland Reed. She was dishonored because of him. Not by him, but because of him. All that was his fault.

Before I respond, I'll post the full paragraph from that Barristan chapter:

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But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark?

It's really hard for me to read this and think that he's talking about Howland dishonoring Ashara through the sequence of events you describe. He's in the midst of talking about how she lost a (bastard) child, how he couldn't tell her his feelings because he sworn to celibacy, and wondering if she may have turned to him instead of "Stark" if he had won the tourney and crowned her. It seems to me like he thought Ashara was "dishonored" at Harrenhal (i.e. she was impregnated, possibly by rape, but given Barristan's POV a highborn maiden having consensual premarital sex would probably qualify and seems more likely), and she committed suicide because she was "mad with grief" for the child and perhaps for the man who dishonored her. Setting aside everything else, why would she be "mad with grief" over Howland? Howland was very much alive.

[Megorova]

1 minute ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

snip

I wrote my opinion about what happened at Harrenhal between Ashara&Howland and Lyanna&Rhaegar and later in the end of Robert's Rebellion. Let's wait and we'll see soon enough, in TWOW, whether my theory was correct.

[corbon]

On 4/1/2021 at 4:57 PM, Mister Smikes said:

That's all very well.  But either you did not know what I was referring to or you dodged the question.  The Golden Company, reputed to never have broken a contract, breaks contract for Aegon.  In reference to which Illyrio explains that some contracts are written in ink, others in blood.    What does he mean?

Largely, he's just being melodramatic.

It cannot possibly truly refer only to the Blackfyre origins of the Company, as we know both Myles Toyne and Harry Strickland were happy to return to Westeros under Visery or Dany's banners. 
So at best it refers to the blood in the context of a return to Westeros with blood of the Dragon (red or black) or a reference to the blood of exiles that still remains (little as it may be) within the company.

On 4/2/2021 at 5:04 AM, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I think you try to make the evidence look a lot stronger than it actually is by listing out a long bunch of points that don't actually add much weight to the argument. Ok, she was Arthur's sister and met JonCon, Oberyn, and the Starks at Harrenhal. That doesn't really move the needle at all.

The point there wasn't moving the needle on the overall argument. It was to counter the specific argument that we know very little about Ashara Dayne. Or for that matter about Lemore.

The fact is, we know more than was insinuated and virtually everythnig we know about either Ashara or Lemore is a fit for the other. Its actually quite remarkable that everything we know (bar a Stark connection for Ashara, which I don't think actually existed in a relevant sense) fits them both.

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So the argument basically boils down to her being Elia's handmaiden for a time (it's never stated that they were close, and since she was at Starfall when Ned showed up she presumably stopped serving Elia at some point, probably due to pregnancy) and both women having dark hair (I know this wasn't revealed until ADWD but what indications were there that she had fair hair?),

Edric Dayne has pale blonde hair, Gerold Dayne Silver (with a streak of black) (thats all we had on Daynes for hair colour until Barristan told us Ashara was dark) and the Daynes are noted with dark blue or purple eyes.
All indications were that the Daynes had Targ-like colouring. Ie light coloured special hair and purple eyes. And this appeared to be 'backed up' by the description from Cat about Ashara being 'tall and fair'.
Further, you have the general indications of Targ 'beauty' and Ashara's 'beauty' referencing her similar colouring (though eyes only). 

In retrospect it was clever misdirection on GRRM's part. But if pressed to guess Ashara's hair colour prior to Barrstan's chapters, you have to go at least 67% a light colour, if not 90+%.

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giving birth to a child (if Barristan's story is accurate), and being at least somewhat attractive. Given how she's described elsewhere, Ashara seems to have been stunningly beautiful and while Tyrion lusts after Lemore, I don't think she's really described in the same terms.

I think its actually a really good match.
20 years ago, Ashara was a beautiful young noblewomen (note that the 'stunning beauty' is not actually attested to. She had great eyes and was 'fair' and in one crush's opinion put a weak and sickly woman in the shade, but none of that actually says she was exceptionally beautiful more than the average attractive, wealthy young woman with pretty eyes).
20 years later Lemore is a 'handsome' older woman, still attractive enough at 'past 40' to draw men's eyes despite her plain religeouse persona (and I'm sure the naked swimming helps there, but its plainly more than that).
To me, thats almost an exact match. I really can't understand people arguing that its a mis-match.

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Ashara's eyes as described also don't seem like the sort of thing that you only notice if caught in a certain light while she's wearing particular clothing.

And yet, thats exactly how it works for the most famous real purple eyed person in history.
Elizabeth Taylor's eyes look grey or pale blue in many photos where she is not wearing makeup or pink/purple accessories.
And its also how it works for fAegon's eyes, though not perfectly. Makeup or accessories (blue hair) is used to help change his hair colour and bring out one shade more than another. It may not be perfect, but it helps significantly or they wouldn't do it.

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Additionally, Lemore is described as being passed forty, and Martin has said that Ashara Dayne would be in her thirties if she was still alive. I'm not saying that's conclusive proof that she isn't Ashara, as Tyrion isn't infallible and could be off by several years at least in his estimate of her age, but I do think it's worth pointing out that this is something we are told that doesn't fit with what we know about Ashara.

I do not think it is worth pointing out - as a real thing. It is worth pointing out as a subtle misdirection that works on some people on GRRM's part.

The fact is that the difference between 30s and 40s is as little as a year. Ie, it can be truly negligible.

First, lets look at Ashara's side of that equation.
Its also a fact that Ashara was away from her family, in a court position (not as a ward, but as a courtier) about 19 years before current time (281). Arguably she was between 14ish and 21 at that time since GGRM saying 'she would be in her thirties by now' ties her birth between 260AC and 270AD, but 11-13 is clearly too young for her position and her actions/effect at Harrenhal.
We have to guess between 14-21, but given she is not a ward of anyone at court, danced with men in the 20ish range, was old enough to be 'dishonoured' (and get pregnant it seems), and intimidating enough for 18yr old shy Ned to be reluctant to dance with, I think its fair to guess at the high end of that range, rather than the low end.
The high end of that range puts her very close to 40, if still under it per definitive GRRM word (otherwise we could guess even older, mid 20s or more, though still most likely 18-22ish).

Then we look at Tyrion's side of that equation.
For some reason GRRM has spent space twice for Tyrion to guess ages wrong.
And now we are supposed to think that he's (or any man!) is 'accurately' guessing the age of a middle-aged woman? You know, that thing that we as men simply don't go near in any way since its so easy to get it so badly wrong?

Never mind arguments about Tyrion's expectations of the way women look/age, noblewomen and whores vs more natural women, the life Lemore has lived etc etc

To summarise the 'age' issue;
1. Ashara's correct age fits well to being close enough to indistinguishable from Tyrion's guess
2. Tyrion's guess is numerically totally unreliably, serving only to give the most general description 
3. THere simply is no age issue.
Bringing it up only shows the weakness of the counter-case.

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I think they would be a red flag, but it wouldn't necessarily identify the woman as Ashara and IMO most casual readers would be more likely to initially make the connection of purple eyes = Targaryen.

Sure, except for those that pay attention, its Targaryen+Dayne. Every Dayne we've met has purple (or nearly) eyes too. 

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Again, Ashara Dayne is way, way more prominent on message boards than she is in the books themselves.

In your opinion.
In the books she's the early leader in the 'who is Jon's mother' stakes. Plus her brother is the finest knight Ned even knew, a legend.

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Prior to this passage, Ashara's eye color is only explicitly referenced once early in AGOT, plus Meera's reference to the maid with laughing purple eyes in ASOS. A lot of readers who don't spend time on fan forums might not recall that at all in the midst of all the references to purple eyes being a defining trait of Targaryens.

Plus Gerold and Edric. 
Its enough of a thing that GRRM had to explicitly say that the Daynes weren't Targaryen/Valaryen offshoots (that he knows) in a Q&A session.

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I guess my point is that I don't think this "mystery" merits what in my opinion is flawed writing by concealing a super obvious observation from a POV character who has no reason not to notice it. If the reader figures out that Lemore is Ashara, so what? For Alleras, realizing who she is does in fact add major significance to the plot given that she's a niece of the Prince of Dorne illicitly infiltrating the Citadel, where important stuff is clearly going down. 

I guess we have different vales on what is important.
IMO a side intrigue between 'southrons' is of little importance in the grander scheme of ASoIaF.  It has its own political relevance in Iron throne politics, but the whole Iron throne politics thing is entirely a sideshow, other than how it affects the Song of Ice and Fire and the solution to the whole 'Other' (white Walker) issue. The whole Jon's origins, Rhaegar's plan, Ned/Rhaegar pre-story story is much more important IMO.

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If Lemore is Ashara, then ... one of Elia's handmaidens who had a rumored fling with Ned is tutoring Aegon? Like it's cool and all, but what is so earthshattering about this that it requires having Tyrion not notice a very uncommon and obvious feature?

Ashara ties to all of the mysteries surrounding early Ned's activities, Jon's origins, the ToJ period plus Rhaegar and his motivations. Thats most of the most important mysteries of the past (IMO of course). Plus she is tied to Barristan and thus possibly Dany's "betrayal for love". Plus her ties to Aegon give an apparent (but not necessarily real) legitimacy (in Westerosi eyes) to the whole fAegon plot in a way that no other potential character could. Arthur Dayne's sister and Elia's Handmaid, proclaiming Rhaegar and Elia's son is so much more powerful in Westerosi terms than... anyone else that could be.

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Even if you figured out her identity, there'd still be a lot of mystery as to how exactly she came to be there, why she's there, who was her baby and what happened to it, etc. This isn't equivalent to Ned not explicitly thinking that Jon is Lyanna's son in AGOT.

And those mysteries are (mostly) the exact same mysteries as we already have for baby Aegon-> fAegon. In fact she provides a lot of the answers, more so than an other option.
As to Ashara's baby? Either dead or Allyria, raised and claimed by her mother to give a better life to a loved bastard (I don't really believe this one, but it could be and its so cutely neat...). Either way, thats not really a part of Ashara=Lemore's story in the end.

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Again, I don't mean to totally dismiss the theory, as Ashara is probably as good a guess as any. I certainly think she's more likely than Mellario, so I'm not sure why you're suggesting I think otherwise.

 Ok. 
Mostly I'm replying because IMO your arguments have been bad, and need (so to speak) countering less they mislead people. Thats a weakness of mine, sorry.

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I'm just saying that at this point the only thing that really could point to it IMO is Ashara having been Elia's handmaiden. Everything else is vague enough to the point of being nearly meaningless, and comes with caveats (Tyrion's estimate of her age, her being described as attractive but not really how you'd expect Ashara to be described, no notice of purple eyes, etc.). My main point is that when an author writes a mystery, they shouldn't have to rely on POV characters missing super obvious things just to throw off the reader, especially when there would still be significant ambiguity and the importance of the reveal isn't IMO worthy of justifying such a trick.

And this is the 'bad argument'  - IMO.
1. Its not just 'Ashara was the handmaid'. Its 'every thing we know about the two matches' + 'connections much better than any other option' + 'much more potential going forward'
2. The 'caveats' are all very badly flawed;
 - age is a match, not a mismatch, once thought is applied past the raw numbers
 - the attractiveness thing is a match, rather than a mis-match
 - despite their rarity, purple eyes are demonstrably not super-obvious, both in real life and in Westeros.
 

On 4/2/2021 at 6:29 AM, Megorova said:

GC's mission didn't changed, it's the same now as it was then, because Varys is Maelys' son.

According to the GC, it has. They were up for Viserys/Dany. fAegon is a backup option that has fallen in their lap (against Illyrio's plans it must be noted).

23 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I seriously doubt that Ned took Jon with him to KL. Robert says that Ned told him about Wylla once, he never says he met her.

 

In fact he says he never met her.

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It seems much more likely that Robert asked Ned who his bastard's mother was the first time he saw him after finding out (whether that was when Ned went to KL or in the Greyjoy Rebellion) and Ned gave the name Wylla (because he couldn't just refuse to give Robert an answer the way he did to Catelyn) and presumably little more.

Or, Robert had a report on Ned's visit already, and made the assumption the wetnurse was the mother, just as he did in the conversation we saw.
Why would Ned tell Robert Wylla was the mother once, and be so reluctant, angry and avoidant every other time - both with Robert and Cat?

3 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Anyway. We know that Ashara lived in Dorne, Starfall specifically. We also know that Dorne has very relaxed attitudes for this medieval setting. We know that in Dorne, it doesn't matter if you're a maiden. Thus, the only time it would be a problem for Ashara, to be seen entering Ned's tent would be if she was going to marry a lord outside of Dorne.  

Actually, We know that some salty/sandy Dornish have different attitudes.
Ashara is from stoney Dornish stock who physically appear more like other Westerosi than salty/sandy Dornish and may also have more similar customs and attitudes.  

So while the point is not exactly wrong, its also not exactly right.

[Jaenara Belarys]

Dorne is Dorne. There have been Lady Daynes ( Lady Clarrise Dayne, a prospective bride for Maegor), so if that attitude carries over, it's logical to assume that other attitudes will carry over.

[corbon]

11 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Dorne is Dorne. There have been Lady Daynes ( Lady Clarrise Dayne, a prospective bride for Maegor), so if that attitude carries over, it's logical to assume that other attitudes will carry over.

Not exactly.
There are 3 different main racial/cultural groups within Dorne. Sandy Dornish, Salty Dornish and Stoney Dornish.

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From such origins did the three distinct types of Dornishmen we know today arise. The Young Dragon, King Daeron I Targaryen, gave them the names we know them by in his book, The Conquest of Dorne. Stony Dornishmen, sandy Dornishmen, and salty Dornishmen, he named them. The stony Dornishmen were the mountain folk, fair of hair and skin, mostly descended from the First Men and the Andals; the sandy Dornishmen dwell in the deserts and river valleys, with their skin burned brown beneath the blazing Dornish sun; the salty Dornishmen of the coasts, dark-haired and lithe and oliveskinned, have the queerest customs and the most Rhoynish blood. (When Princess Nymeria came ashore in Dorne, most of her Rhoynar preferred to remain close to the sea that had been their home for so long, even after Nymeria burned their ships.)

The Daynes are stoney Dornish, who appear to have Andal/First men origins as posed to the Salty/Sandy Dornish who have Rhoynar origins.
From origins, seem to follow customs.
Also, note that the Daynes, more than any other House in Westeros, cling to their origins. Their symbol, their colours, their motto, their history, their House heirloom, all relate to their origins - pre Rhoynar.
All the examples of differing Dornish cultural attitudes in this area are Salty or Sandy. 

[Jaenara Belarys]

But none of that says that Dornish customs will not apply to stony Dornishmen. It says that the salty ones have the queerest customs, but it doesn't mean that stony Dornishmen all act like nobles outside of Dorne.

[Mister Smikes]

9 hours ago, corbon said:

I think that this is a very disingenuous argument. 

"Disingenuous" means you think I'm lying about my opinions.  If that's not what you mean, then choose another word.

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We a clear "Targaryen look". And they are basically opposite from Frog (and Arrianne). We have a Martell mother and a Targaryen father. One child is written as looking more like a Martell and the other as looking more like a Targaryen. Which, in context, doesn't just mean 'he looked less Martell', it means he had the Targaryen look. Saying otherwise is pure sophistry. The context gives more meaning than just the words alone.

It is common knowledge that children share the heritage of both parents.  When I say that Jimmy takes more after his dad, and Timmy takes more after his mom, I do not generally mean that Jimmy is a perfect clone of his dad, and Timmy is a perfect clone of his mom, and that neither will take anything at all from the other side of the family.  I read such language as relative rather than absolute.

I have already agreed, based on the published books, that Aegon, as a child, was fair of hair and (more tentatively) had dark blue or purple eyes.  In my opinion, that is more than adequate to explain GRRM's remark.

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In Doran's family, we see the Martell (salty Dornish - the same look is referenced elsewhere) look from Oberyn (tall, slender, dark eyes, dark hair - using Oberyn since Doran doesn't get a useful description) and we see both Arrianne and Quentyn with a salty Dornish colouring plus the stature they got from Mellario (Oberyn is tall and lean, Arianne (and Quentyn) short and buxom(/stocky) and said to favour her mother (which is likely the stature, since her hair and eyes match Oberyn but stature is opposite to his).

You just admitted you just don't know Doran's hair and eye color.  Neither do I.  We do, however, know the hair and eye color of Elia Martell.  Her hair was brown, and her eyes were black.  

And even if Doran's hair and eyes were both black, it would not change the fact that Quentyn's hair and eyes were brown.

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This is GRRM's westerosi signature - 'family 'looks' that stay consistent, whether its Stark, Tully, Lannister, Baratheon, Targaryen or Martell. 

How does Sansa Stark fit into this?  You're trying to create an absolute rule that is in no way justified by the available evidence.

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And you are trying to tell us that a child GRRM identified with one 'look' (with supporting evidence from Kevan) he is then hiding as a complete opposite 'look'?

No.  I'm saying that a person who had fair hair and dark-blue eyes as a baby boy can grow up to have brown hair and brown eyes.  And I am theorizing that GRRM has allowed such a perfectly reasonable development to occur in his books because he wants to surprise his readers, and have them not instantly recognize Aegon when he appears in the story.

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It is a problem, which is why I brought it up, just not a provably insurmountable one as I conceded. It is further evidence added to the heaped pile.

You cannot tell how tall or stocky a toddler will be when he grows up.  Please give up on this point, unless you are merely trying to create a heaped pile of nonsense.

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Quentyn is not just 'short legged', he's also 'stocky', which is a description given to shorter people, never to taller people (while it could technically apply to a taller person as it doesn't by definition refer to height, it never is as tall people who could be described as stocky are always described in other ways, such as huge, broad, barrel chested, etc.)

Irrelevant, as Quentyn cannot be described as tall.  He is shorter than Meris, who is only 5'11".   All I am saying is that he may be more-or-less average in height, like maybe 5'8" or 5'9".  Or maybe he's even shorter, like 5'6" or 5'7".  We don't know.  And it does not really matter because you cannot tell how tall or broad a toddler will be when he grows up.  

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The colour of new-turned earth which is usually dark, nearly black from a distance until it dries lighter (and is no longer newly-turned).

Newly-turned earth comes in a variety of shades.  The more wet it is the darker it tends to look, but new-turned earth is not always particularly damp (just relatively damp compared to its sun-bleached surface).  Maybe GRRM does mean "nearly black" but it seem to me that you are placing the most extreme interpretation on his words that you can and insisting that no other interpretation is possible.

But okay.  Fair enough.  Maybe this does suggest we can rule out "Sandy Brown" or some other very light shade of brown.   It remains true that blond kids can turn into dark brown adults.

Googling around, I am even seeing stories of blond children whose hair darkens to black, though this seems less common.  But we need not wonder whether such stories are accurate, because Q's hair is not black.  It is brown.

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No, thats the disingenuous part.
A large part of GRRM's story here are distinctive family looks. Baby Aegon is noted as looking like a Targaryen, which tends to tall lean and beautiful with silver or gold hair and purple eyes. He had fair hair. 
To hide him as a short, stocky, ugly, dark haired, dark eyed young man just doesn't work. Period.

If Quentyn is Aegon, he has grown taller and broader, not shorter, since he was a toddler.  This is exactly what one would expect.  His fair hair turning brown (yes, even dark brown) and his dark-blue or purple eyes turning brown, are maybe a bit more surprising, but hardly unheard of.  What's the problem?   

You are dismissing reasonable possibilities by saying they "just don't work" and then saying "PERIOD".

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Notably Doran appears not to know about fAegon (at least until the Golden Company invades Westeros)

Doran does not say all he knows.  Some of his words, though ambiguous, could be read as suggesting he expected fAegon and Dany to join forces.  Tyrion screwed that up.

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- his plans for both his children being aimed at Viserys and Dany, neither at fAegon, which is one of the many weak points about the Mellario theory.

Illyrio has also been involved with Viserys, and with Dany, and with fAegon.   So it seems to me this sort of complaint proves too much.  

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He's full of enigmatic hints of this or that, most of which mean nothing.

Maybe.  Or maybe his enigmatic hint means something.

 

[corbon]

5 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

But none of that says that Dornish customs will not apply to stony Dornishmen. It says that the salty ones have the queerest customs, but it doesn't mean that stony Dornishmen all act like nobles outside of Dorne.

Agreed. Which is why I stated that the point is not exactly wrong, even though it is not exactly right.
You have extrapolated from one subset, and assumed it apply universally to the whole set (in fact indicating that you weren't aware that there were important subsets). I merely pointed out that the extrapolation, while not necessarily wrong, is not necessarily right as applied to Daynes, either. Its a point best left out, since we have no clarity on it, rather than tried to apply for or against either side in this case. 

[corbon]

3 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

"Disingenuous" means you think I'm lying about my opinions.  If that's not what you mean, then choose another word.

Hmmm. I explicitly applied to the argument itself, not to you, so I was trying to be clear that I wasn't calling you personally disingenuous. I apologise unreservedly for any appearance of it being personal.
Probably another word is better, Sorry. I can't think of one, and its not easy to find one as all the synonyms emphasis the dishonest part (which supports your case for my misapplication of it, sorry), which is not the relevant part I am trying to bring out.

For lack of the ability to chose a better word, I'll try a longer explanation on my part:
I think your argument here doesn't have a sound internal structure. Its structure is:
"the data doesn't completely disprove an unreasonable alternative
therefore 
the not-disproved alternative is reasonable".

I don't think you are dishonestly applying it, but I do think this argument is not actually an honest one internally to itself.

3 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

How does Sansa Stark fit into this?  You're trying to create an absolute rule that is in no way justified by the available evidence.

She has the Tully look, from her mother.
No, its not an 'absolute' rule. But it is a strong theme throughout the books thats relevant to storylines. If GRRM is going to break this rule/theme he has used so consistently, then he needs to lay out some actual clues or examples of a child being described with one family look and changing to another family look. He hasn't, at least that I know of or that you've been able to bring to the table.  

3 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

You dismissing reasonable possibilities by saying they "just don't work" and then saying "PERIOD".

Yes. Because IMO they are literally so unreasonable as to be virtually impossible. If your Arrianne Martell example had worked, then you'd have enough for me to say I really don't think so, but its reasonably possible. But it didn't.

To be perfectly honest, if we can do that without insulting (which I already did in error, sorry again) each other, I suspect that your error with the Arrianne Martell  appearance change probably affected your headcannon  around appearances much like mine with olive skin did to my head cannon around Frog's appearance. We all make such errors from time to time. The only difference is that I think yours is absolutely critical for an otherwise non-existent case and mine is just an extra factor amongst many. You are trying to buck the trend and I'm just applying it, so your data is rare and critical, mine is plentiful and thus each piece less important. 

Obviously we aren't going to move each other (unless you come up with more actual data). I'm happy with what is out there from each of us for others to read and decide themselves with a fair perspective from both sides, not just one side.  

[corbon]

lost these two last little bits.

4 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Illyrio has also been involved with Viserys, and with Dany, and with fAegon.   So it seems to me this sort of complaint proves too much.  

How is that relevant? The point is that Doran aimed both his kids at Dany/Viserys and neither at  fAgeon. That rather ruins any argument that Mellario is working the fAegon angle on Doran's behalf, since if he'd known about it it would have been relevant for his plans for his kids.
If he'd known, Doran's plans for Arrianne would have moved from Viserys to Aegon, once Viserys died. Its a natural progression. Instead he has no plans for her until after JonCon contacts him and informs him of Aegon's existence.

4 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Maybe.  Or maybe his enigmatic hint means something.

And maybe it does. But as indicated by the prior plans of the Golden Company, the one thing its not possible for it it refer to is exclusively Blackfyre blood. 

 

[Mister Smikes]

2 minutes ago, corbon said:

How is that relevant?

It's relevant because we don't know the whole scheme.  On some level, the scheme does seem to involve Dany, Viserys and fAegon.  It is what it is, and that it does not make much sense to you, in our current state of ignorance, does not matter, nor does it prevent Doran from being involved.

2 minutes ago, corbon said:

The point is that Doran aimed both his kids at Dany/Viserys and neither at  fAgeon.

Maybe he's not wild about sibling incest.  Nor am I aware of any rule that Doran must place all of his eggs in one basket.  Nor am I aware of any rule that he cannot be flexible and adjust his plans.  One never knows how kids will grow.  The scheme to swap son and nephew (if the theory is correct) does not seem to have been conceived by Doran until after the two swapped children were at least 3 years old.  Was this before or after the marriage pact with Viserys?  I don't know.

Did he already know, when Viserys was aged 8, that Viserys would grow to be a mad clone of his father Aerys?

2 minutes ago, corbon said:

If he'd known, Doran's plans for Arrianne would have moved from Viserys to Aegon, once Viserys died.

Assuming he's okay with sibling incest, sure.

2 minutes ago, corbon said:

Its a natural progression. Instead he has no plans for her until after JonCon contacts him and informs him of Aegon's existence.

We're still assuming Doran is okay with sibling incest.  Okay, let's assume that.  Doran dispenses information on a need-to-know basis.   If he had plans for his son and daughter to wed each other, he would not necessarily tell Arianne about it.  The girl has already betrayed him and plotted against him and tried to launch a war before his plans were ripe.  He's managed to manipulate her back onto his side, but I see no rule that he need take any chances.

But of course, the secrets he has kept from her may end up resulting in accidental incest.  Arianne wonders at Doran's motives for allowing a former lover to ride with her to see fAegon.   Maybe it was insurance against brother and sister getting in each other's pants.

 

[Mister Smikes]

35 minutes ago, corbon said:

She has the Tully look, from her mother.

Baby Aegon also had a mother.  And Baby Aegon's mother had brown hair and black eyes and Martell heritage.

35 minutes ago, corbon said:

No, its not an 'absolute' rule. But it is a strong theme throughout the books thats relevant to storylines. If GRRM is going to break this rule/theme he has used so consistently, then he needs to lay out some actual clues or examples of a child being described with one family look and changing to another family look. He hasn't, at least that I know of or that you've been able to bring to the table.  

Seems to me that your complaint is that GRRM may be trying to surprise his readers.  His clues are not obvious enough, or hammered in sufficiently, to convince absolutely everyone on this forum.  Maybe that's exactly how he wants it.

It really seems to me, that if it DOES turn out that Quentyn is Aegon, and that if the explanation GRRM gives for this is that Quentyn DID darken with age, you will have no cause for complaint.  GRRM will have surprised his readers and provided a plausible explanation for the surprise.  The darkening of children with age is a well-known fact of human nature.  That's an advantage of making your characters human.  You can rely on common knowledge of human nature, and don't have to waste 1000 pages spelling out every arguably-relevant fact of human nature. 

GRRM is aware that it is possible for young creatures to darken as they grow older.  He has this happen to Shaggydog.  But no doubt you will claim that does not count because Shaggydog is not human.  And maybe, if I did find an in-book example of it happening to a human, you would demand I find an example of it happening to a Targaryen.

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

Baby Aegon also had a mother.  And Baby Aegon's mother had brown hair and black eyes and Martell heritage.

Seems to me that your complaint is that GRRM may be trying to surprise his readers.  His clues are not obvious enough, or hammered in sufficiently, to convince absolutely everyone on this forum.  Maybe that's exactly how he wants it.

It really seems to me, that if it DOES turn out that Quentyn is Aegon, and that if the explanation GRRM gives for this is that Quentyn DID darken with age, you will have no cause for complaint.  GRRM will have surprised his readers and provided a plausible explanation for the surprise.  The darkening of children with age is a well-known fact of human nature.  That's an advantage of making your characters human.  You can rely on common knowledge of human nature, and don't have to waste 1000 pages spelling out every arguably-relevant fact of human nature. 

GRRM is aware that it is possible for young creatures to darken as they grow older.  He has this happen to Shaggydog.  But no doubt you will claim that does not count because Shaggydog is not human.  And maybe, if I did find an in-book example of it happening to a human, you would demand I find an example of it happening to a Targaryen.

I just can't figure out why you would want this to be true. I mean, why should Aegon be brought into this story alive at all, only to die after a few not very significant chapters? Quentyn is dead and all it would do to say he was Aegon would be to cause most readers to roll their eyes.

Meanwhile whether or not the character now actually called Aegon is fake (Blackfyre) or real his story significance is already FAR greater.

 

Anyway, IMO we should talk about Lemore or Elia in this thread, since this thread is about them.

[Mister Smikes]

7 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I just can't figure out why you would want this to be true. I mean, why should Aegon be brought into this story alive at all, only to die after a few not very significant chapters?

I became convinced that Frog was still alive long ago, long before I became convinced that he was Aegon.  It was not an issue of me WANTING Frog to be alive ... as far as I was concerned I was just following the clues.  Frog's death looked like a fake-out, and I was just calling it as I saw it.

I think it was a poster named Bran Vras (IIRC) who maybe as long ago as 2011, presented a different "Quentyn is Alive" theory that postulated -- not that Frog had survived Rhaegal's fire --  but that Frog was not the real Quentyn.  IIRC he presented some curious clues from Quentyn's backstory which he thought suggested the possibility that Doran had sent a different child to the Yronwioods in place of his real son.  However he drew no connection to Baby Aegon or to Young Griff.  I found this intriguing, but could not get the pieces to fit into place.

In recent years I made the connection to Aegon and to Young Griff.  This makes Frog the Prince that was Promised, one of the Thee Heads of the Dragon, and the Rightful Ruler of the Seven Kingdoms.  Now it makes more sense than ever that Quentyn was able so survive being briefly engulphed in flame as a result of Rhaegal's "furnace wind."

[LynnS]

3 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

I think it was a poster named Bran Vras (IIRC)

I haven't looked at his stuff in a long time.

Contents (free.fr)

[Hippocras]

4 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

I became convinced that Frog was still alive long ago, long before I became convinced that he was Aegon.  It was not an issue of me WANTING Frog to be alive ... as far as I was concerned I was just following the clues.  Frog's death looked like a fake-out, and I was just calling it as I saw it.

I think it was a poster named Bran Vras (IIRC) who maybe as long ago as 2011, presented a different "Quentyn is Alive" theory that postulated -- not that Frog had survived Rhaegal's fire --  but that Frog was not the real Quentyn.  IIRC he presented some curious clues from Quentyn's backstory which he thought suggested the possibility that Doran had sent a different child to the Yronwioods in place of his real son.  However he drew no connection to Baby Aegon or to Young Griff.  I found this intriguing, but could not get the pieces to fit into place.

In recent years I made the connection to Aegon and to Young Griff.  This makes Frog the Prince that was Promised, one of the Thee Heads of the Dragon, and the Rightful Ruler of the Seven Kingdoms.  Now it makes more sense than ever that Quentyn was able so survive being briefly engulphed in flame as a result of Rhaegal's "furnace wind."

Well I don't find it interesting at all. It seems pointless. Look, Quentyn being Quentyn makes far more sense. And yes, he really did die. Why on earth would Barristan Selmy have fake thoughts about him dying in his POV? Quentyn is dead, and Quentyn is Quentyn. And his story is interesting because it tells us a few things:

1. It is the beginning of the end of the overripe blood oranges that are Dornish revenge plots. House Martell is in trouble as it loses its heirs one by one. Holding on to old grudges past their usefulness is not the way to a prosperous future.

2. Not everyone with a drop of Targaryen blood was meant to be a dragon rider, or to mate with "dragons" such as Dany. No assumptions can be made about who can ride dragons based on ancestry alone, nor can we believe that Dany will be drawn to someone simply because of a supposed blood tie.

3. It is the beginning of Dany's turn West because it is the first House, not exhiled, to attempt to join her cause. 

4. Dorne would have been a natural ally for Dany, but Quentyn dying will present problems for her in winning over allies in Westeros.

 

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

Well I don't find it interesting at all.

Well, I can't do anything about that.  If you're not interested, then maybe we should not engage.  But you keep asking me direct questions, so those I will try to answer.

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

Why on earth would Barristan Selmy have fake thoughts about him dying in his POV?

Barristan has no fake thoughts.  Barristan believes the burnt-beyond-recognition man arrested with the two Dornishment and now dying in Dany's bed is Frog.  And the two Dornishmen, who are covering for Frog, do not go out of their way to correct his error.   Meanwhile , Frog and Viserion are spending quality time together in Viserion's lair, a pyramid that was abandoned as soon as Viserion moved in.  Frog is still trying to do what he set out to do -- steal a dragon.  If Barristan knew that Frog was alive, he might guess where he was.  

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

2. Not everyone with a drop of Targaryen blood was meant to be a dragon rider. No assumptions can be made about who can ride dragons based on ancestry alone.

I made no such assumptions.  Viserion seemed to be responding to Quentyn when Rhaegal attacked.  

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

3. It is the beginning of Dany's turn West because it is the first House, not exhiled, to attempt to join her cause. 

Or, maybe it's the beginning of Dany's turn West because it is the first person, other than herself, to attempt to ride one of her dragons.

1 hour ago, Hippocras said:

4. Dorne would have been a natural ally for Dany, but Quentyn dying will present problems for her in winning over allies in Westeros.

Well, we're even now, because I don't find this interesting.  I want Dany to go to Westeros.  Speculating that Doran will blame Dany for a situation that is in no way her fault, thereby rejecting a natural ally, makes no sense to me.  If conflict arises between Dorne and Dany, it will be for other reasons, surely.

[Lord Browndodd]

On 4/1/2021 at 1:05 AM, Seams said:

... Tyrion is still in Kansas at this stage of his journey...

Fairly accurate geographically, if you interpret the Rhoyne as the Mississippi.