Elia Martell: Yes, another Septa Lemore speculation

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

On 9/16/2021 at 2:44 PM, corbon said:

Finally, we have Griff calling her Lady. Not something he'd do is she was just a random hireling/educator/septa. And not just in public, but inside his own head too. And even when she s back dressed as a Septa.

Do you think Haldon knows who she is? I also think the use of "Lady" for a septa is interesting, but if she is a noblewoman hiding her identity, JonCon presumably wouldn't refer to her that way to Haldon unless he already knew.

On 9/17/2021 at 3:45 PM, corbon said:

She was Elia's closest companion.

I don't think this makes or breaks the theory, but what indication is there that she was Elia's *closest* companion? Barristan just refers to her as one of Elia's companions, with no reference to how close they were, and that's the only time in the books that her position as Elia's lady-in-waiting is referenced. Is there a SSM or something else outside the books that indicates this?

On 9/17/2021 at 3:45 PM, corbon said:

If she loved Ned Stark (I don't think the evidence for that is anywhere near as strong as it appeared early on) he's now married and lost to her too. Or Brandon Stark - dead.

Is it your opinion that Brandon was the father of her child? That's my take, and I also think it's plausible that Allyria is their kid, though it's tough to say for sure without more evidence. Allyria could just be a plot device to explain Ned Dayne being Beric Dondarrion's squire, but the implied age gap between her and her siblings (I assume you were mixing up Ashara's relationship to Ned with her official relationship to Allyria when you say "her Aunt Ashara?") is suspicious. One possibility if she isn't Ashara's daughter is that she's a half-sibling, and her mother is Lord Dayne's second wife.

[Dreadscythe95]

How does this serve the story though? A plot point like that has to have a purpose. It's pointless honestly.

[Mister Smikes]

On 9/16/2021 at 5:44 PM, corbon said:

Because they paid attention to the text.

GRRM hits us twice with her having secrets, once early, and dismissed, once late, and then immediately lost as this is Tyrion's last scene with her.

Furthermore...
She is clearly "more" than a teacher for Young Griff. 
 

She is sworn to protect him - ie she is a true conspirator, not just a hireling for the teaching. Even though she is a noncombatant, she is sworn to protect him. While I'm sure the same is true for Haldon and Duck, who are combatants, its not clear the same is true for Ysilla, for example. Yandry maybe, maybe not. But thats only the start of it...

 She is someone who needs to hide - so not just a nobody/anybody, but a somebody.
Further...

She has been involved for many years, possibly from before Griff's time even.
She is important enough, senior enough within the conspiracy to counsel Griff on major policy issues and even argue with him. Thats not the role of a hired hand septa/teacher.

Again, she's in on plans and ready to argue back against Griff. Its clear she's actually a pretty senior conspirator, possibly even more senior than Griff, for all that he is in local command currently. We certainly know that Griff was 'brought in' to the conspiracy only after a number of years after his exile during Robert's Rebellion.

It is clear here that Griff is in local command though. Maybe he is more senior than her within the conspiracy. That is still possible too. Or maybe that is just either or both of a separation of roles and/or his own arrogance and base status as a Lord. We can't tell.

Finally, we have Griff calling her Lady. Not something he'd do is she was just a random hireling/educator/septa. And not just in public, but inside his own head too. And even when she s back dressed as a Septa.

So to summarise:
Duck has a simple, clear backstory and no hints of more. In fact Tyrion thinks explicitly he's even less than he appears.
Haldon slightly less info but still no hints in any way of being more than he appears. 
Neither appears to have a massive significance going forward, or show anything that might provide a significant missing element in the story.  

Lemore however has no background information or direct hints at all, but at the same time is clearly hinted at being more than she appears, rather than less in multiple ways and times.

Thus the interest in her. It comes from reading what is written and paying attention to the clues GRRM has scattered through the text.

Then on top of that, you have the complete absence of any connection between 1yr old baby Aegon, supposedly switched, and the 4-5 yr old kid that became Young Griff when Griff was brought into the conspiracy. If the kid really is Aegon (and its clear that conspirators with him believe it, and believe they can convince others in Westeros of it) there has to be a connection and story there, some continuity, some connection through the time gap. Not just so the conspirators believe it, but one that they can use to convince Westerosi doubters.
With all the information above, Lemore is far and away the most likely source for that that we have.

Nice breakdown of why Lemore must be Somebody.  

It's when you move on to trying to guess the Somebody that we disagree.

[Mister Smikes]

On 9/17/2021 at 12:28 AM, corbon said:

Ashara  Mellario 
Attractive to men  Ditto
Aged would be close to 40  Age would be past 40, which is what Tyrion's chapter actually says.
Westerosi noblewoman  Essosi noblewoman with Westerosi connections
Close friends and associate with Aegon's father and especially mother  (ok you got me there, but why would she support fake aegon, then) 
Would have the education and training to pose as a Septa (see Sansa's training)  Ditto
Probably had and lost a child of a similar age to Aegon  Certainly had a male child even closer in age to Aegon, who would actually be a cousin of Aegon, and who is not lost
Was brought up on an island so probably swam more than most Westerosi  Brought up on a tributary of the Rhoyne, and just as probably swam in it.
Supposedly suicided off a tower into the sea but no witnesses and no body found.  Supposedly still alive, and in Essos, not far from where Illyrio rendezvous with Lemore

I added comments in bold instead of interjecting in the normal way.

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Would provide strong evidence suitable to convince many Westerosi of the truth of Aegon's background purely by her own identity, background and connections
Would exactly fit the bill in terms of the interplay and relationship between Lemore and Griff.
Would provide an interesting setup with Barristan should they meet (treason for love maybe?, or not)
Gives us (and GRRM a vehicle for) potential insight into the missing critical elements of what happened around the end of Robert's rebellion and with Ned coming from ToJ.

I won't argue with this except it seems very subjective.

But I'll say this:  We meet Lemore halfway between Pentos and Norvos on the Pentos-to-Norvos road.  And she did not come from Pentos, or she would have traveled with Illyrio.

Griff meets Young Griff (and Lemore?) a year or two after Mellario and Doran have a huge fight about whether to send Quentyn to foster with the Yronwoods.  This occurred when Quentyn (Aegon's First Cousin) was aged 3.  A curious age, because it is the age at which children forget their previous lives.  

Mellario potentially connects with Blackfyre theories.  Illyrio says the male line is extinct, and Mellario is one of few female characters of significance who hale from Essos.  Norvosi noblewomen customarily shave their heads and wear wigs, which might be useful in hiding Blackfyre heritage.

You can get something pretty close to "Lemore" by rearranging the letters in Mellario.

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Might not be her. 
But none of the other possibilities make any sense, despite what people try to argue for their favourites. 

Against that you have...
"But purple eyes!"

You are free to make your own mind up. I'm not really interested in arguing more, been down that road many times and now the forum is dominated by odd theorists (IMO of course), but I do try to provide clear info when asked (actually only dropped in today to look up an old friend, I hardly visit these days).

Understandable.  I won't ask you to explain why Mellario makes no sense.  For all I know, you've told me already and I've forgotten.  We each have staked our bets, in case TWOW is ever released.

[corbon]

6 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Do you think Haldon knows who she is?

I don't really have an opinion. Not enough relevant information. However, I'd imagine he's privy to the way her relationship with Griff works (can't be bothered to check is he's present in the two conversations we see that show that, but there may well have been other such indications at various times anyway), which must show him that she's significantly more than she appears, at the very least. 

6 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I also think the use of "Lady" for a septa is interesting, but if she is a noblewoman hiding her identity, JonCon presumably wouldn't refer to her that way to Haldon unless he already knew.

Hmm, I don't see Haldon being a relevant factor there other than it being yet another clue that would suggest Haldon either knows who she is or at least knows she's much more significant than a hired hand Septa

6 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I don't think this makes or breaks the theory, but what indication is there that she was Elia's *closest* companion? Barristan just refers to her as one of Elia's companions, with no reference to how close they were, and that's the only time in the books that her position as Elia's lady-in-waiting is referenced. Is there a SSM or something else outside the books that indicates this?

That is literally the exact function of a Lady in Waiting. Consider that Westerosi nobility culture seems mostly modelled on european, especially english, where most of GRRM's background knowledge would come from.

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The duties of ladies-in-waiting at the Tudor court were to act as companions in public and in private; to accompany her wherever she went; to entertain her with music, dance or singing; and to dress her, bathe her and help her use the lavatory, as a royal person, by the standards of the day, was not supposed to do anything by themselves, but was always to be waited upon in all daily tasks as a sign of their status

Then consider she is the only one named for Elia, and that she is Dornish, like Elia, at the Targaryen court.
Then consider her brother Arthur, and his relationship with Rhaegar.

Consider that historically until courts got much more extravagant post 16th century, Ladies in Waiting were typically numbered in a small handful, 5-7. Only much later did they expand out into dozens.
Consider Queen Maergery who has/had 3?4? Ladies in Waiting.
Similarly earlier Targaryen Queens had only a handful of Ladies in Waiting.

Clearly its an intimate role, the more so when only one is known for the crown princess.

So she is almost certainly a close companion. And given her common cultural background with Elia at a culturally alien court (in part) and her brother's close connection with Rhaegar, its pretty much a slam dunk that she was close to Elia, perhaps as close as anyone at all.
 

6 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Is it your opinion that Brandon was the father of her child?

Most likely, assuming there was a child. Certainly much more likely than Ned.

6 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

That's my take, and I also think it's plausible that Allyria is their kid, though it's tough to say for sure without more evidence. Allyria could just be a plot device to explain Ned Dayne being Beric Dondarrion's squire, but the implied age gap between her and her siblings (I assume you were mixing up Ashara's relationship to Ned with her official relationship to Allyria when you say "her Aunt Ashara?") is suspicious.

Exactly (and yes, with Ned Dayne))

6 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

One possibility if she isn't Ashara's daughter is that she's a half-sibling, and her mother is Lord Dayne's second wife.

Yes. 
Or just they had a late extra, possibly at least partially caused by their losses. After all, House Dayne may have been down to "an heir and no spare", at that stage. An idea reinforced by the prominence of Gerold Dayne, despite House Dayne of High Hermitage being only a cadet branch of the family.

5 hours ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

How does this serve the story though? A plot point like that has to have a purpose. It's pointless honestly.

Hard to tell who/what you are talking about.
If Ashara = Lemore, then lots of potential. The other options... agreed, little or no point at all.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

Nice breakdown of why Lemore must be Somebody.  

It's when you move on to trying to guess the Somebody that we disagree.

Thanks. We are allowed to disagree on things.  
One or other of us will be wrong, no biggie really.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

I added comments in bold instead of interjecting in the normal way.

The problem with that method is it gets lost in quoting. Fortunately  this is the next answer, so your post is just a bit up the page and referable.

Just to pick one that stands out... no, Mellario is not 'as likely' to be a swimmer as Ashara.
Ashara literally lived right beside the sea on an island (she supposedly jumped from the tower of her home directly into the sea).

Mellario was a Norvosi noblewoman.

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Norvos is made up out of two parts, joined only by a massive stone stair, known as the Sinner's Steps. The high city, where the ancient nobility of Norvos lives, is ringed about by mighty stone walls,^[1] and located on the tallest hill in the region.^[6] Here, the great fortress-temple of the bearded priests is located.^[1]

The lower city is located three hundred feet below, at the base of the hill, by the river,^[6] spread out along the muddy shores. It is defended by moats, ditches, and a timber palisade, overgrown with moss. The riverfront is lined with wharves, brothels, and beer halls.^[1] While the upper city is grim, the lower city is lively.^[1]

The Norvosi riverfront in muddy, lined with wharves, brothels and beer halls. The nobles live on the highest local hill, several hundred feet higher (and thus probably more than a km, probably several km from the riverbanks).

It doesn't look much like swimming in the river is a likely past-time for Norvosi noble children or young women! 
 

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

I won't argue with this except it seems very subjective.

But I'll say this:  We meet Lemore halfway between Pentos and Norvos on the Pentos-to-Norvos road.  And she did not come from Pentos, or she would have traveled with Illyrio.

Irrelevant. Its established that she's been with YG for years. Whereas Mellario has been living in Norvosi, without a known child companion, for years.
Besides, they met on the river, not on the road. Lemores been on the Rhoyne, in the Shy Maid with YG, not in Norvos.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

Griff meets Young Griff (and Lemore?) a year or two after Mellario and Doran have a huge fight about whether to send Quentyn to foster with the Yronwoods.  This occurred when Quentyn (Aegon's First Cousin) was aged 3.  A curious age, because it is the age at which children forget their previous lives.  

Which is a huge strike against Mellario.
There is now no connection between baby Aegon/Pisswater Prince spirited out of KL by Varys and Young Griff. Nothing to convince Griff wh the child is, nothing to 
Ashara provides that missing link by disappearing at  right time, Mellario emphasizes that there is no link by not possibly showing being available through the broken time period. 

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

Mellario potentially connects with Blackfyre theories.  Illyrio says the male line is extinct, and Mellario is one of few female characters of significance who hale from Essos.  Norvosi noblewomen customarily shave their heads and wear wigs, which might be useful in hiding Blackfyre heritage.

This is extraordinarily thin and entirely speculative.
Mellario and her background are known in Westeros. There are no hints that she has any connection to Blackfyres or any Targaryen similarities. Shaven heads being common in her culture is not a cover for a secret Targ - its her entire culture!

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

You can get something pretty close to "Lemore" by rearranging the letters in Mellario.

I consider that sort of 'clue' done that badly, worthy of an eye-roll. 
Alleras = Sarella is orders of magnitude tighter.
Your (and other's) mileage is free to vary of course, but this detracts rather than enhances respect for the argument for me. Its a sign of the desperate lengths needed to find anything...

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

Understandable.  I won't ask you to explain why Mellario makes no sense.  For all I know, you've told me already and I've forgotten.  We each have staked our bets, in case TWOW is ever released.

Yes, in much more detail than this, particularly about the utterly wrong physical look. I found your counter arguments extremely lacking to the point where I don't think I replied to the last, which coincided with around the time I got busy and left the forum anyway.
No problem, we'll see eventually, assuming GRRM lives long enough!

<not very serious sigh> here we go, being drawn into a discussion. Still, I'm around and have some time, so why not!  

 

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

9 hours ago, corbon said:

Hmm, I don't see Haldon being a relevant factor there other than it being yet another clue that would suggest Haldon either knows who she is or at least knows she's much more significant than a hired hand Septa

He's relevant in the sense that if calling Lemore "Lady" is meant to be revealing, JonCon wouldn't do it unless Haldon was already in the know. Which is possible, sure, though I don't know why he'd be told (I don't think JonCon would call her that based on the assumption that Haldon knows she's more than she appears but not knowing anything beyond that).

9 hours ago, corbon said:

Consider that historically until courts got much more extravagant post 16th century, Ladies in Waiting were typically numbered in a small handful, 5-7. Only much later did they expand out into dozens.
Consider Queen Maergery who has/had 3?4? Ladies in Waiting.
Similarly earlier Targaryen Queens had only a handful of Ladies in Waiting.

We're literally told in Meera's story about Harrenhal that Elia had a dozen lady companions with her at Harrenhal

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"She was," said Meera, hopping over a stone, "but there were others fairer still. One was the wife of the dragon prince, who'd brought a dozen lady companions to attend her. The knights all begged them for favors to tie about their lances."

I'm not saying this necessarily means that Elia and Ashara weren't close, I'm just saying that the text at this point doesn't justify any sort of firm conclusion that she was Elia's closest friend.

[Mister Smikes]

14 hours ago, corbon said:

Just to pick one that stands out... no, Mellario is not 'as likely' to be a swimmer as Ashara.
Ashara literally lived right beside the sea on an island (she supposedly jumped from the tower of her home directly into the sea).

If Ashara is alive, it is likely because she did not really fall from the tower.  Yes, it is plausible that Ashara can swim; but it is equally plausible that Mellario can swim.

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Mellario was a Norvosi noblewoman.

The Norvosi riverfront in muddy, lined with wharves, brothels and beer halls. The nobles live on the highest local hill, several hundred feet higher (and thus probably more than a km, probably several km from the riverbanks).

It doesn't look much like swimming in the river is a likely past-time for Norvosi noble children or young women! 

That particular Rhoyne tributary is more than a kilometer in length, and in those bad old days, believe it or not, people were capable of walking more than a kilometer.  And don't the nobility have boats?  If you take a dip from your houseboat, you don't have to deal with the muddy banks.  Which is what we see Lemore doing in ADWD.  You can also use your boat to travel more than a kilometer from the beer halls, and find all sorts if idyllic spots.  And rich people often have horses too.  And country estates.

And of course Mellario has also spent alot of time in Dorne, with its famous Water Gardens.

For one who just suggested we agree to disagree, you are being pretty aggressive here in mocking the idea that Mellario can swim.  And your arguments are pretty weak for the purpose.  As for me, I'm fine with agreeing that it is perfectly plausible that both Ashara and Mellario  can swim, though hardly proven in either case.  Call it a tie on that point.

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Irrelevant. Its established that she's been with YG for years. Whereas Mellario has been living in Norvosi, without a known child companion, for years.

You are arguing from ignorance.  We have no idea how many child companions Mellario has in Norvos.   It is meaningless to complain that she has no KNOWN child companions.  You are basically demanding more clues.  To which my answer is:  GRRM probably wants to surprise us.  If his clues are too many and/or too good, we would not even have a debate.

Anyhow, you seem to have forgotten that the debate here is over whether the evidence for Ashara is any better.  Ashara has likewise been without a "known" child companion for the last 16-17 years.  At least Mellario is "known" to be alive and in Essos, which is more than you can say is "known" for Ashara.

But again, I'm not trying to disprove the Ashara = Lemore theory.  

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Besides, they met on the river, not on the road. Lemores been on the Rhoyne, in the Shy Maid with YG, not in Norvos.

They met where the river crosses the road.  And we don't know where she and YG came from.  It is a rendezvous, after all.  Maybe she came from Norvos via the road to rendezvous with the Shy Maid, or maybe she came from Norvos by boating up and down the Rhoyne tributaries on the Shy Maid.  Either way, Norvos is nearby, and it is very unlikely that Lemore and YG have spent the entirety of the last 11 years on a houseboat.

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Which is a huge strike against Mellario.
There is now no connection between baby Aegon/Pisswater Prince spirited out of KL by Varys and Young Griff. Nothing to convince Griff wh the child is, nothing to 

I'm not seeing any necessary connection with Ashara either.

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Ashara provides that missing link by disappearing at  right time,

It seems very arbitrary to say Ashara disappeared at the "right time".  Right time for what?  Smuggling Aegon out of KL?  We're not sure exactly when Ashara disappeared, but since she was apparently at Starfall when she heard of Rhaegar's death, she was certainly in the wrong place.   Right time to serve as a wetnurse?  Aegon does not need one -- he is too old.  Right time to join the conspiracy?  I'm not sure why she would want to, but she can do that at any time before the age of 5 years, and perhaps beyond, so there is no hurry.  And babies can be swapped at any time before aged 4 without much risk that the baby will remember its past life and prior identity.

Sure, maybe GRRM has answers to all these questions, and with luck, maybe you can guess them.  I'm not saying I can disprove the Ashara theory, I'm just saying I don't see much evidence.

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Mellario emphasizes that there is no link by not possibly showing being available through the broken time period. 

What does "possibly showing" even mean?  You can't prove a theory false by speculating that it might be false. 

If Mellario is Young Griff's mother, then obviously there is a link.  She does not need a close connection with (real) Aegon, before the swap.  She only needs a connection to fake Aegon (her son) after the swap, which would have occurred at around age 3 for  both children, after her big fight with Doran..  

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Mellario and her background are known in Westeros.

It is?  Then tell me who her mother was.  Because that's the issue.  Calling her a Norvoshi noblewoman (even if accurate) only tells us who her father was.  But with the male line of the Blackfyres extinct, the identity of the father will not be relevant to whether she has Blackfyre heritage.

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There are no hints that she has any connection to Blackfyres or any Targaryen similarities.

You could say the same of Ashara.  Ashara's purple eyes don't matter unless she is Young Griff's real mother, and as far as I can tell, you don't even believe that.

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Shaven heads being common in her culture is not a cover for a secret Targ - its her entire culture!

It is a culture in which a Secret Blackfyre can conveniently hide, possibly by marrying a Norvosi Nobleman and having a daughter.

It is a fact which allows Mellario to have Valyrian traits, without this being widely known to others, and particularly to readers.  

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I consider that sort of 'clue' done that badly, worthy of an eye-roll. 
Alleras = Sarella is orders of magnitude tighter.
Your (and other's) mileage is free to vary of course, but this detracts rather than enhances respect for the argument for me. Its a sign of the desperate lengths needed to find anything...

This sounds irrational to me.

The similarity does not need to be obvious to be a clue.  If he had wanted to be more obvious, he could have called her "Lemorial".  But maybe, to disguise his clue a bit further, he called her "Lemore" for short.  And yes, that makes the clue weaker.  But weak clues do not damage a theory; they merely add very little to the theory or (at worst) nothing at all.  Your claim that it damages my credibility that I would mention a weak clue is both ad hominem and irrelevant.  I'm just an anonymous guy on the internet discussing possible theories.  I have no inside information.  My credibility does not matter.  The clue is what it is, and if it does not add that much to the theory, it certainly does not detract from it.

I mean, how obvious does he have to be?  How long did it take fans to guess the identity  of Alleras.  Was it the same day AFFC was released, or did it take a whole week?   Maybe he does not want us to guess so easily.

In the meantime, I'm really not stressed that you think it damages my reputation that I mentioned a weak clue.  "Mister Smikes" isn't even my real name, so I think I'm safe. 

 

[corbon]

4 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

He's relevant in the sense that if calling Lemore "Lady" is meant to be revealing, JonCon wouldn't do it unless Haldon was already in the know.

I don't agree he wouldn't. 
I think there is a mental shift within Griff around the time Haldon is sent of with Tyrion to get horses. The time has finally come, they are going to reveal Aegon to others (the Golden Company) and begin a new stage on their pathway. 'Identities' are changing, though not necessarily to a complete reveal. And its at this point that Griff's language around the identity of Lemore changes. First we see it internally (which doesn't seem as big a reveal, because for all we know that's always been Griff's internal description of her - though I doubt it, I think he's been in 'deep cover mode' where even internal thought patterns are disciplined in order to prevent external slips, and now he is releasing that mode, or changing it), but then even externally which clearly is a big change. Even if Haldon doesn't know Lemore's precise identity, I don't think there is any reason why Griff shouldn't or wouldn't adapt Lemore to a new identity as a 'Lady' in front of Haldon at this point.

I mean, you might be right that he knows, I'm not ruling it out. But I don't see this as any reason why you must be.

Thus the 'its irrelevant' call. Not because I think you are wrong about this, but because I don't see it as the same definitive signifier that you apparently do. I can see perfectly reasonable alternatives.

4 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Which is possible, sure, though I don't know why he'd be told (I don't think JonCon would call her that based on the assumption that Haldon knows she's more than she appears but not knowing anything beyond that).

Yeah. I just think that its entirely possible that this is just a new 'identity' for Lemore for the next stage of their path. Its not like he's actually calling her by her name, Ashara, Lemore, or whoever she really is. 
In which case, there is no big deal or 'reveal' in front of Haldon.

4 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

We're literally told in Meera's story about Harrenhal that Elia had a dozen lady companions with her at Harrenhal

Hmm, perhaps. But when Sansa was introduced to Margaery Tyrell, Margaery had a bunch of companions with her, but only a few actually held the position. There is a difference between some companions and a formal Lady in Waiting position. 
Its also likely that Elia was heavily pregnant, and thus had more 'companions' than usual for entirely separate reasons.

4 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I'm not saying this necessarily means that Elia and Ashara weren't close, I'm just saying that the text at this point doesn't justify any sort of firm conclusion that she was Elia's closest friend.

I still think it does. Or at least, very close, if not necessarily the absolute closest.
Similar age (late teens early twenties). Both cultural aliens at court, from the same region (though IMO Ashara was probably less alien than Elia, being Stoney First Men Dornish rather than sandy Rhoynish mix Dornish - the Martells are Targ by blood sure, but clearly sandy Dornish by culture). Explicitly intimately connected by position, extra bound by Rhaegar and Arthur's tie. 
Yes, I think the text does strongly infer that Elia and Ashara were pretty close.

[Mister Smikes]

I have a question for those who think Lemore is Ashara, or Elia, or nobody at all, or anyone other than Mellario of Norvos.

Why are Griff and Co. traveling over 1000 miles UP the river (and then down again), just so Illyrio can travel 250 miles inland by road to meet them at a ruined city?  Were Griff & Co. really in need of a spare malevolent dwarf and hoping against hope that Illyrio would travel inland and give them one?  It seems a strange reason for an otherwise unnecessary 2000 mile round trip.

Yes, I get that the Golden Company is (at one point) also upriver from Volantis.  But not very far at all.  

Surely this implies that Griff & Co. were, prior to setting out, based somewhere not too far from Ghoyan Drohe, where they rendezvous with Illyrio.  There are not too many named places nearby.  There is Norvos, and (further away) Qohor.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

2 hours ago, corbon said:

Hmm, perhaps. But when Sansa was introduced to Margaery Tyrell, Margaery had a bunch of companions with her, but only a few actually held the position. There is a difference between some companions and a formal Lady in Waiting position. 
Its also likely that Elia was heavily pregnant, and thus had more 'companions' than usual for entirely separate reasons.

This is goalpost shifting. If you want to get technical, Ashara is only referred to by the same term, "companion," in the text. Martin referred to her as a lady-in-waiting in an offhand remark 20 years ago. I don't even think the text supports your assertion about a stark distinction between companion and lady-in-waiting and Margaery having many of the former and few of the latter.

Using the tool linked below to find and specify terms that consist of multiple words can be difficult, but I believe that this in the only time the exact term "lady/ladies in waiting" is used in reference to Margaery's companions:

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He spied Queen Margaery up in the gallery, pale and beautiful in her mourning. Twice wed and twice widowed, and only sixteen. Her mother stood tall to one side of her, her grandmother small on the other, with her ladies in waiting and her father's household knights packing the rest of the gallery.

No specification there on who exactly they are or how many of them there are. If we loosen things a little and look for similar but not exact wording, or how the term "companions" is used, we do get some other examples that I think are relevant.

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"They are never alone. The king's with them most all the time, and when he's not, there's someone else. Two of her ladies share her bed, different ones every night. Two others bring her breakfast and help her dress. She prays with her septa, reads with her cousin Elinor, sings with her cousin Alla, sews with her cousin Megga. When she's not off hawking with Janna Fossoway and Merry Crane, she's playing come-into-my-castle with that little Bulwer girl. She never goes riding but she takes a tail, four or five companions and a dozen guards at least. And there's always men about her, even in the Maidenvault."

Two ladies always share her bed, different ones each night, implying that there's more than just a few. All three of her cousins are mentioned in this paragraph along with three others (not counting the septa), with no distinction drawn among them.

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her lady companions and cousins, MEGGA, ALLA, and ELINOR TYRELL

This description of Margaery's cousins seems to support the idea that Martin uses (lady) companion interchangeably with lady-in-waiting

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Behind Margaery came a long tail of courtiers, guards, and servants, many of them laden with baskets of fresh flowers. Each of her cousins had an admirer in thrall; the gangly squire Alyn Ambrose rode with Elinor, to whom he was betrothed, Ser Tallad with shy Alla, one-armed Mark Mullendore with Megga, plump and laughing. The Redwyne twins were escorting two of Margaery's other ladies, Meredyth Crane and Janna Fossoway. 

Unless some of "Margaery's ladies" are somehow not "ladies-in-waiting," this seems to imply a minimum of six (there's five mentioned here, and the phrase "two of Margaery's other ladies" implies more beyond just Meredyth and Janna) and there's multiple other ladies who are mentioned elsewhere in the text as companions of Margaery in similar contexts as Meredyth and Janna with little evidence to support any distinction. My final quote below seems to support that.

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The queen wondered if they had other things in common. Our little rose has a good many ladies waiting attendance on her, night and day. They were with her now, almost a dozen of them. Cersei studied their faces, wondering. Who is the most fearful, the most wanton, the hungriest for favor? Who has the loosest tongue? She would need to make a point of finding out.

This one seems pretty definitive unless you really want to argue that the "ladies waiting attendance" Cersei is referring to here might not all technically be "ladies-in-waiting." I don't see how you can sustain an argument based on this over a specific term that's never used in the text to describe Ashara and doesn't appear to ever be exactly and explicitly used to refer to any specific companion of Margaery's.

Also, FWIW the ASOIAF wiki uses the same page to cover both "companion" and "lady-in-waiting." 

https://asearchoficeandfire.com/ (tool to find text in the books that I mentioned above)

2 hours ago, corbon said:

I still think it does. Or at least, very close, if not necessarily the absolute closest.
Similar age (late teens early twenties). Both cultural aliens at court, from the same region (though IMO Ashara was probably less alien than Elia, being Stoney First Men Dornish rather than sandy Rhoynish mix Dornish - the Martells are Targ by blood sure, but clearly sandy Dornish by culture). Explicitly intimately connected by position, extra bound by Rhaegar and Arthur's tie. 
Yes, I think the text does strongly infer that Elia and Ashara were pretty close.

I think it's a safe bet that at least most of Elia's companions were Dornish, as Margaery's all appear to be from the Reach. What you've presented here are some reasons to think they may have been close, but at the end of the day there's simply no basis for asserting as fact that Ashara was Elia's "closest companion." I'm not sure why there's so much insistence on this part. It could very well be true, I'm not saying it isn't. I don't think the Ashara = Lemore theory requires conclusive proof that she was Elia's best friend to be plausible. All I'm saying is that there simply isn't near enough evidence at this point to make that claim as fact rather than speculation/theorizing.

[corbon]

If you just want to say "this is my theory and its different from yours" thats fine. But if you are going to bring arguments (I mean discuss points, not a fight type argument) than you have to bring better arguments.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

If Ashara is alive, it is likely because she did not really fall from the tower.  Yes, it is plausible that Ashara can swim; but it is equally plausible that Mellario can swim.

<shrug> I disagree. And I think the extents you have to stretch to "equate" hurts your theory. Bad reasoning doesn't produce a sound basis for a theory and stretching so far shows bad reasoning. 

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

For one who just suggested we agree to disagree, you are being pretty aggressive here in mocking the idea that Mellario can swim. 

Agreeing to disagree is one thing, letting terrible reasoning go is another. I should probably do more of the second, its a failing of mine. 

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

You are arguing from ignorance.  We have no idea how many child companions Mellario has in Norvos.   It is meaningless to complain that she has no KNOWN child companions.  You are basically demanding more clues.  To which my answer is:  GRRM probably wants to surprise us, and if you want absolute proof you may have to wait for the next book.

Perhaps I am. It merely emphasizes the point that you are making up your theory entirely out of thin air - an absence of clues, not actual clues..
if you can base your argument on nothing, why shouldn't I counter it with more nothing? Seems fair.
Not that I agree I'm coming from nothing. Mellario is something of a known quantity even if not much for us. She's a known public figure, with no clues she's been hiding anything. Many people know her, know who she is, know her history and connections. People talk. If she was doing something secretive or unusual, then there is a significant chance that Doran would know she's doing something secretive or unusual, even if not necessarily all the details. But there is no there there.
And what is 'known' doesn't match with Lemore.  

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

Anyhow, you seem to have forgotten that the debate here is over whether the evidence for Ashara is any better. 

Well, between us, yes.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

Ashara has likewise been without a "known" child companion for the last 16-17 years. 

Not exactly no. Ashara's been 'known' to be dead the last 16 years or so. If in fact she hasn't been dead, we know absolutely nothing at all about her in that time and an awful lot more is available for her story.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

At least Mellario is "known" to be alive and in Essos, which is more than you can say is "known" for Ashara.

Sure. Mellario has restrictions in her story. Ashara does not. 
Mellario is a known public figure, with a known location, and some known timeline. 
Not-dead Ashara is a totally unknown and private figure free to be an all sorts of places at all sorts of times doing all sorts of things. In secret.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

But again, I'm not trying to disprove the Ashara = Lemore theory.  

No, but you are trying to "equate" things that are not equal. And using bad reasoning to do it.

Example
Growing up literally in a tower beside the sea and supposedly leaping to her death literally into the sea (but theoretically not dying - no body was found) is very different from growing a noble up in a city that has a river, but the nobles live very far from the river on the top of a high hill, and the river is known to be muddy and bounded by the poorer and more disreputable districts.
These things by no means create an equal chance of "unusually competent swimmer".
But for you - "call it a tie".  Thats simply not reasonable.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

They met where the river crosses the road.  And we don't know where she and YG came from.  It is a rendezvous, after all.  Maybe she came from Norvos via the road to rendezvous with the Shy Maid, or maybe she came from Norvos by boating up and down the Rhoyne tributaries on the Shy Maid.  Either way, Norvos is nearby, and it is very unlikely that Lemore and YG have spent the entirety of the last 11 years on a houseboat.

Right. But you trying to push the idea that Lemore is Mellario who is in Norvos. You wrote:

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We meet Lemore halfway between Pentos and Norvos on the Pentos-to-Norvos road

This is a literal disingenuous statement. Its sort of true, but not candid. It doesn't tell the whole story and its deliberately not quite complete in order to create a false impression that supports your theory. Its clearly meant to imply "ooh, Lemore came from Norvos", especially when you follow it by immediately pointing out that Lemore didn't come from Pentos or they would have met (which is also not true, she could have just been ahead of them).

The FACT is, that when they met Lemore she and Young Griff were already on board the Shy Maid. So they met on the river, not on the road. And although that spot is between Pentos and Narvos, its also literally the nearest place the Rhoyne comes to Pentos. So they literally met on the nearest and most convenient spot between Pentos and any place on the Rhoyne, not just 'between Pentos and Norvos'.

The 11 year argument is also a straw man argument. I didn't suggest or even imply that they had been on the river for 11 years. Do better.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

It seems very arbitrary to say Ashara disappeared at the "right time".  Right time for what? 

Taking Aegon to Essos. Or hjoin baby Aegon there and help raise him. Its a general thing, not a specific thing.

Right time as 'within a month or so' which is a fair adjustment given the messy situation, and adding travel times etc.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

Smuggling Aegon out of KL?  We're not sure exactly when Ashara disappeared, but since she was apparently at Starfall when she heard of Rhaegar's death, she was certainly in the wrong place.   Right time to serve as a wetnurse?  Aegon does not need one -- he is too old. 

Straw men.
Smuggling Aegon out of KL is Varys' job. He's the one actually there and with Aegon supposedly in his possession. 

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

Right time to join the conspiracy?  I'm not sure why she would want to,

Right. Its not like she, or her family, have any close connections or loyalty to Rhaegar and Elia!

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

but she can do that at any time before the age of 5 years, and perhaps beyond, so there is no hurry.  And babies can be swapped at any time before aged 4 without much risk that the baby will remember its past life and prior identity.

Right. 
So baby dies (or is swapped, and 3-4 years later, small child 'appears'.
Like everyone is automatically going to believe it must be the same kid. With no reliable, trustworthy connection between who knew the baby and who knew the kid. 
Cause 1 year olds and 4-5 year olds are easy to guaranteed be the identifiably the same kid just by looking at them.
/sarc
The conspiracy needs to have an identifiable, reliable, trustworthy connection for the 1-2-3-4-5 year old kid. Ashara would be that. Mellario, or Griff, would not 9nether would most other ideas like Wenda etc). and Illyrio or Varys don't count at all.  

You have to take into account the relative sophistication of the target audience - westerosi nobles. What would be convincing to them, not what is provable, or would be convincing to you. And acknowledge that the greatest part of their reaction is mostly going to rely on 'whats best for me' not 'what's the truth', but some acceptable version of truth is needed to help sway enough in the middle ground area. A three year blank is not anybody's acceptable version of truth.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

What does "possibly showing" even mean?  You can't prove a theory false by speculating that it might be false. 

It means Mellario can;t cover that three year blank time, because she's a known person still in Dorne through that time. She can only 'join' after the three year blank period.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

If Mellario is Young Griff's mother, then obviously there is a link. 

Yes, I'm aware of this part of your theory, which is why we slightly argue at cross purposes here. You don't account for the three year period at all, you just have Mellario steal her son from Doran and put a fake in her boy's place at the end of the three year period and its all good from there.  Noboday can tell that  a 4 year old that turns into a tall lean, hair haired fine featured young man is not the totally the same 4 year old that turns into a short, stocky, dark haired dark eyed kid with a broad nose and square jaw.
Totally believable, yup. 
Still got a three year timeline hole which is death to the conspiracy's objectives though. Ahh <handwave>

The whole "Mellario is YG's mother" simply fails simple tests.
The Doran-Mellario progeny have a general phenotype - short-ish, stocky, pudgy, buxom, black, dark or brown hair, olive skin, dark eyes, broad nose, square jaw etc etc. They all have the same general characteristic look. And while Quentyn looks like Doran, Arriane is said to favour her mother. So Mellario fits within this too and has contributed to the three sibling's 'look'.
Young Griff is the opposite of this look. He's tall, lean, fine featured, light haired, purple eyed. He looks like Rhaegar. 

In GRRM's world, where phenotypes breeding true, more true than in our world, is literally a plot point and found everywhere throughout the books, it is utterly unreasonable to argue that YG is actually Mellario's son with Doran. 
I can live with Mellario being Lemore, though I see literally zero evidence to suggest it (not a single point of yours supporting the idea has stood up to scrutiny as being based on actual clues). But there is no way at all I can accept the idea that YG is Arriane and Trystane's brother and Doran's son. At least not based on what we have so far. GRRM is much much better than that.

And yes, you tried to show some passages before that supported "changing looks" but they didn't say what you wanted them to and utterly failed to support your theory.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

This sounds irrational to me.

The similarity does not need to be obvious to be a clue.  If he had wanted to be more obvious, he could have called her "Lemorial".  But maybe, to disguise his clue a bit further, he called her "Lemore" for short.  And yes, that makes the clue weaker. 

GRRM writes very true to his characters. While some of us may have the education and sophistication for elaborate letter-word games, just being able to read and write in GRRM's world puts you in the top 1% and reading 5 books in your life probably puts you in the top 0.01% or something like that.
This is not a literarily sophisticated culture.
As evidenced by the only time we such a game played, it is at such a basic level that its astonishing that people can't see through it immediately. But they don't. Not even the top 1% of the top 1%, the Maesters at Hightower. 

Elaborate word and letter games simply aren't part of GRRM's world. There may be some he puts there for the audience (us) - they usually relate to out-of-world contexts, if they even exist. 
But in world, there is just one example and its vastly simpler and easily enough.

This 'clue' simply isn't a thing.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

But weak clues do not damage a theory; they merely add very little to the theory or (at worst) nothing at all.  Your claim that it damages my credibility that I would mention a weak clue is both ad hominem and irrelevant. 

Its not ad hominem. It wasn't an attack on the person, it was an attack on the argument.
Its pointing out than in the absence of real clues, you literally have to invent stuff that has no actual parallel in the book. The only similar such in-world word game is vastly vastly simpler. 

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

I'm just an anonymous guy on the internet discussing possible theories.  I have no inside information.  My credibility does not matter.  The clue is what it is, and if it does not add that much to the theory, it certainly does not detract from it.

I'm, not discussing you, or your credibility - except where you use straw men or other poor argument tactics.  I'm discussing the theory and its credibility. If you have to go that far for the theory, then the theory has failed to convince on what is actually there.
If there are other convincing points, then its more like a tiny, almost-but-not-quite-insignificant cool support. I've a few of those myself on various theories.

Its a difference. Actual clues vs little bonus tidbits. This could be a bonus tidbit if the theory had better backing, except IMO its not even qualifying that high because its too weak in itself (not actually matching. let alone being in order) even for a tidbit. Each to his own.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

I mean, how obvious does he have to be?  How long did it take fans to guess the identity  of Alleras. 

For some, probably like literally reading the word the first time. Sarella and her story was in AFFC, Alleras introduced in ADwD. Others maybe needed it pointed out because they weren't that interested or their memory wasn't as good. I don't remember at all for me. I'd done a reread of the other books just before ADwD was released, so it would have been relatively fresh, but there were other areas that were much more interesting for me, so I probably didn't notice till I read something here.
But whether you (or I) as a fan notice it immediately or later, or have to have it pointed out, its blindingly obvious once it is. Its not only the exact match letter for letter but even in the same order, just reversed.

One of the differences too, is that that is a person literally playing a game with no massive consequences. Sure, if she's found out she'll be kicked out of the Citadel, but that would leave her no worse off than she was before. 
Lemore however is not playing a game. Its life and death and world shaking consequences. Possibly world-ending consequences if she is a believer in Rhaegar's vision.

 

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

Was it the same day AFFC was released, or did it take a whole week?   Maybe he does not want us to guess so easily.

Its not just for us though, its for people in Westeros as well. Sarella is playing a game and if she wins the game, she'll want people to know. And if she is exposed early, the consequences are relatively mior.
Lemore's situation is not a game. If she wins, it matters not how, and if she is found out early, its a disaster.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

In the meantime, I'm really not stressed that you think it damages my reputation that I mentioned a weak clue.  "Mister Smikes" isn't even my real name, so I think I'm safe. 

Good. I'm not interested in your reputation, just in the quality of your discussion. And whether you ideas have merit or not - for me. If you can argue the well, then they improve my understanding too.

[Mister Smikes]

5 hours ago, corbon said:

If you just want to say "this is my theory and its different from yours" thats fine. But if you are going to bring arguments (I mean discuss points, not a fight type argument) than you have to bring better arguments.

<shrug> I disagree. And I think the extents you have to stretch to "equate" hurts your theory. Bad reasoning doesn't produce a sound basis for a theory and stretching so far shows bad reasoning. 

Agreeing to disagree is one thing, letting terrible reasoning go is another. I should probably do more of the second, its a failing of mine. 

None of the above is actual argument.  It's all attack mode.

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Perhaps I am. It merely emphasizes the point that you are making up your theory entirely out of thin air - an absence of clues, not actual clues..
if you can base your argument on nothing, why shouldn't I counter it with more nothing? Seems fair.

You know, I would never claim that the Ashara theory is based on nothing.  I just don't find it convincing.  You are free to be as unconvinced by my Mellario theory.  But telling me I have said nothing at all seems far too aggressive, and just a wee bit irrational.

5 hours ago, corbon said:

Not that I agree I'm coming from nothing. Mellario is something of a known quantity even if not much for us.

Some things are presumably known about her.   For instance, various things might be known about her mother, without anything necessarily being known about her mother being a descendant of the Blackfyres; or otherwise having Valyrian traits and/or Valyrian heritage.

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She's a known public figure, with no clues she's been hiding anything.

We know that Norvosi noblewomen shave their heads and wear wigs.  That could be a setup allowing she, or her mother, to have Valyrian traits without it being widely known that she or her mother have Valyrian traits.

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Many people know her, know who she is, know her history and connections. People talk.

This "we know nothing at all about Mellario therefore she cannot have Valyrian traits even though it is Norvosi custom to shave hair and wear wigs" is just unconvincing to me.

You say Ashara being a blank slate works for your theory.  Why, then, cannot Mellario being a blank slate work for my theory?

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If she was doing something secretive or unusual, then there is a significant chance that Doran would know she's doing something secretive or unusual, even if not necessarily all the details.

Presumably, Doran would be in on it.  The suggestion is that Doran and Mellario baby-swapped their nephew for their son, and are plotting to put their son on the Iron Throne, while they sent their nephew to the Yronwoods to pay the "blood price" for Lord Yronwoods murder.  In other words, the Yronwoods have been paid with false coin.  Illyrio (and maybe Varys) are in on the scheme; having abandoned plans to use the real Aegon this way, when it was found out, as he grew older that he no longer looked the part.

And no, I don't buy the argument that this cannot possibly be true, because if it were Doran would have told Arianne and Hotah and the Sand Snakes all about it.

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Mellario is a known public figure, with a known location, and some known timeline. 

We know nothing about her timeline that conflicts with Lemore.  We do not know enough about either person's timeline to see any conflict.  We do not know that Lemore has spent 100% (or even 50% or 20%) of the last 11 years on the Shy Maid, nor can we say that Mellario has spent 100% (or even 50% or 20%) of the last 11 years locked inside her mansion in Norvos.

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Not-dead Ashara is a totally unknown and private figure free to be an all sorts of places at all sorts of times doing all sorts of things. In secret.

Or maybe she changed her name to Joanna and married Howland Reed.  Or anything else.   A blank slate can be anything you want it to be. 

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No, but you are trying to "equate" things that are not equal. And using bad reasoning to do it.

Example
Growing up literally in a tower beside the sea and supposedly leaping to her death literally into the sea (but theoretically not dying - no body was found) is very different from growing a noble up in a city that has a river, but the nobles live very far from the river on the top of a high hill, and the river is known to be muddy and bounded by the poorer and more disreputable districts.
These things by no means create an equal chance of "unusually competent swimmer".
But for you - "call it a tie".  Thats simply not reasonable.

You're making a lot about very little.  I don't say you're making alot out of nothing, but it is certainly very little.

Meanwhile, you are ignoring Mellario's connection to the Water Gardens, which is one big giant swimming pool.  You are pretending to know that Mellario lives over a kilometer from the river, merely because she is a noble.  You are ruling out the possibility, on no evidence at all, that she has a riverside country estate, or otherwise has access to the riverside (regardless of whether her main residence is on a hill).  You are assuming, on no evidence at all, that she never goes boating, and never goes swimming from her boat.  It's as if you argued on the basis of Sunspear that the Water Gardens could not exist, and therefore that Dornishmen never swim.

It is perfectly plausible that Ashara can swim, and the same for Mellario.  Why is that not fair?

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Right. But you trying to push the idea that Lemore is Mellario who is in Norvos. You wrote:

They meet halfway between Pentos and Norvos on the Pentos-to-Norvos road, and they did not come from Pentos.

 

This is a literal disingenuous statement. 

It is a true statement, and you are calling me a liar for saying it.  What does that make you?

And your only reason for calling me a liar is that you disagree with the implications of the sentence - the same implications you are pretending not to see.

But I did not say they came from Norvos.  If I had meant that I would have said that.  I'm not sure if they came directly from Norvos, and I told you that too.  Nothing I say is meant as absolute proof of anything, and I keep telling you that too.  And if you want to know exactly what I mean by "halfway between Pentos and Norvos on the Pentos-to-Norvos road", look at the damned maps.  You'll see exactly what I mean.

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Its sort of true, but not candid. It doesn't tell the whole story and its deliberately not quite complete in order to create a false impression that supports your theory. Its clearly meant to imply "ooh, Lemore came from Norvos", especially when you follow it by immediately pointing out that Lemore didn't come from Pentos or they would have met (which is also not true, she could have just been ahead of them).

The FACT is, that when they met Lemore she and Young Griff were already on board the Shy Maid. So they met on the river, not on the road.

The first people they meet, of Lemore and YG's party, are Rolly and Haldon.  Their conversation makes clear they have recently been with YG.  Both are riding horses, and they brought a bunch of pack horses with them as well.  The pack horses are sufficiently unladen, that they are free to take loads from Illyrio's mules.   Maybe they already transferred their previous loads to the Shy Maid?  Where did the horses and pack horses come from?  Did they come all the way up from Volantis on the Shy Maid?  Seems unlikely.  

When they take off downriver, they do not take the horses with them.  

Yes, when we first see YG he is on the roof of the Shy Maid.  But he is still halfway between Pentos and Norvos along the Pentos-to-Norvos road, which continues on the other side of the river.

And I already acknowledged that we do not know whether YG and Lemore arrived at this spot via the Shy Maid or via the road.  All we know is that they arrived before Tyrion and are therefore would be already on the Shy Maid in either event.  And somebody brought the riding horses and pack  horses.

Maybe YG and Lemore did not come by road from Norvos.  But it sure looks like someone at the rendezvous came that way.

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And although that spot is between Pentos and Narvos, its also literally the nearest place the Rhoyne comes to Pentos. So they literally met on the nearest and most convenient spot between Pentos and any place on the Rhoyne, not just 'between Pentos and Norvos'.

Norvos is still the nearest named inhabited spot, even by river.  Even if you ignore the pack horses.  If this clue is so meaningless that you feel the need to call me a liar merely for mentioning it, please explain why Griff & Co felt the need to travel 1000 miles up-river to rendezvous at this spot.   The arrangement seems implausible, unless Griff and Co. have another base closer by.

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The 11 year argument is also a straw man argument. I didn't suggest or even imply that they had been on the river for 11 years. Do better.

If they were not 11 years on the boat, then maybe they were in Norvos part of the time.  It is reasonably nearby after all.   And the riding horses and pack horses came from somewhere.

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Taking Aegon to Essos. Or hjoin baby Aegon there and help raise him. Its a general thing, not a specific thing.

Right time as 'within a month or so' which is a fair adjustment given the messy situation, and adding travel times etc.

There is no indication that Aegon was taken to Essos immediately on being smuggled from KL, or even within a month or so.  The coincidence of Ashara disappearing at the "same time" is pure illusion.

If you want Ashara to join the conspiracy, that is fine.  She can do so at any time within the next five years.  There is no coincidence.

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Right. Its not like she, or her family, have any close connections or loyalty to Rhaegar and Elia!

Okay fine.  But on that logic, why rule out Mellario?  Her husband is Aegon's uncle, and her son is Aegon's cousin.   And if Aegon were smuggled to safety, who would he have been smuggled to if not his closest living relative?

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Right. 
So baby dies (or is swapped, and 3-4 years later, small child 'appears'.

Nobody died.  Aegon is smuggled out of KL, and into Uncle Doran's custody.  Doran keeps him a secret, for obvious reasons.  Doran also has a son of his own, about the same age.  Both children are of a Valyrian-Martell mix, are first cousins, and to some extent resemble each other.   As Aegon ages, he grows to look more like a Martell.

2 years later, when both children are 3 years old, Mellario and Doran swap the two children.  Aegon is raised to think he is Quentyn, and (some years later), sent to the Yronwoods.  Quentyn is sent abroad with Mellario, and raised to think he is Aegon.   They have the authority to send them where they will, and have complete control over whether and how soon anyone will see them who might notice a radical change.  

Nobody will be surprised if "Quentyn" comes home looking different, after 3 years away in another location.

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Like everyone is automatically going to believe it must be the same kid.

Why not?  Doran and Mellario have complete control over who sees their kids and when, and can send their kids abroad to new locations at any time.   And after enough time has passed ... well, kids do change with age, after all.  If a six year old Quentyn returns to Sunspear after 3 years in Essos with Mellario, and he looks a bit different, who is going to question it?

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With no reliable, trustworthy connection between who knew the baby and who knew the kid. 

Both parents are in on the conspiracy.

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Cause 1 year olds and 4-5 year olds are easy to guaranteed be the identifiably the same kid just by looking at them.

After 3 years abroad?

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The conspiracy needs to have an identifiable, reliable, trustworthy connection for the 1-2-3-4-5 year old kid. Ashara would be that.

I'm not sure what you think she'd be doing.

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It means Mellario can;t cover that three year blank time, because she's a known person still in Dorne through that time. She can only 'join' after the three year blank period.

So?  Prior to the swap, why would she need to be anywhere but with her husband and son?

But since her husband is Aegon's uncle and closest living relative, and is the most logical person to have protection and control of Aegon during this period, Mellario and (real) Aegon could easily be more or less in the same place at the same time.  But they don't need to be.  Mellario's connection is to her son, Quentyn, now being raised as (f)Aegon.

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You don't account for the three year period at all, you just have Mellario steal her son from Doran and put a fake in her boy's place at the end of the three year period and its all good from there.  

I don't do that at all.  Mellario does not steal anyone from Doran.  They are in it together.

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The whole "Mellario is YG's mother" simply fails simple tests.
The Doran-Mellario progeny have a general phenotype - short-ish, stocky, pudgy, buxom, black, dark or brown hair, olive skin, dark eyes, broad nose, square jaw etc etc.

Arianne has olive skin and black hair.  She is never said to have a broad nose or a square jaw.  If she takes after her mother in some respects, this is probably not a reference to her hair color, since, as we know, Norvosi noblewomen shave their heads and wear wigs.

Trystane is said to have olive ski and black hair.  

Frog is never said to have olive skin.  He is stocky and with short legs, but otherwise of roughly average height.  His brown hair is "earth" colored, which may mean (and sometimes does mean) dark brown with gold mixed in ("dirty brown").   Frog is described as having broad nose and a square jaw and a high forehead.  For all we know, Rhaegar may have these feature as well, though the overall effect was certainly more handsome.   Arianne also describes Frog as having hair "the color of dried mud".  What color is dried mud?  If you google "dried mud images", it seems that dried mud often looks kinda .... golden.

Aegon and Quentyn are first cousins, with at least some similar heritage.   Rhaegar and Elia had one child who looked "more like a Martell".  It is plausible that their second child started with fair hair, but darkened with age.

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And while Quentyn looks like Doran, Arriane is said to favour her mother. So Mellario fits within this too and has contributed to the three sibling's 'look'.

I don't recall the exact words, but the implication I got is that Arianne inherited her mother's beauty and buxom figure.  But I am certain there was nothing in the context suggesting it referred to hair or eye color.

When Arianne thought of Quentyn as being "too much like his father", she seems to be referring mainly to his large head, his short legs, and being too thick around the middle, slouching, and not being generally handsome.  But of course the real Aegon also has a Martell parent.

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Young Griff is the opposite of this look. He's tall, lean, fine featured, light haired, purple eyed. He looks like Rhaegar. 

Quentyn would be Rhaegar's nephew, so there could be some resemblance, especially if there are Valyrian and/or Blackfyre traits on Mellario's side as well.  I'm pretty sure Arianne could also fairly be called fine featured -- at least she is certainly considered beautiful.  Rhaegar, BTW, is never described as fine-featured.   

Aegon is fair haired, but he could have gotten that from his mother.  His eyes are variously described as blue, purple and black.

You are overstating your case, by overgeneralizing the evidence.

I'm not sure how much input GRRM had in illustrations, but in the pictures I have seen, he is not shown to be fine featured.  Handsome, to be sure, but also fairly broad nose, square jaw, and high forehead.

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In GRRM's world, where phenotypes breeding true, more true than in our world, is literally a plot point and found everywhere throughout the books,

You are basically saying that GRRM would NEVER try to trick or surprise us, and if the Real Aegon shows up in this series, he will look EXACTLY like we expect.  I am not so sure of that premise, and I have no idea why you so certain of it.  Your arguments are far too aggressive.  I don't claim to have absolute proof, and you have no need of these exaggerated claims of absolute disproof. 

You are protesting far too much.  If you really found my points that unconvincing, they would not make you so angry.

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it is utterly unreasonable to argue that YG is actually Mellario's son with Doran. 

It might be wrong, but it is perfectly possible.  Children do change with age.  And authors do try to trick their readers and mislead them with red herrings and false expectations.  

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But there is no way at all I can accept the idea that YG is Arriane and Trystane's brother and Doran's son.

Do you then, not accept that Rhaenys is Aegon's brother and Rhaegar's son?  What's the difference?  

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This is not a literarily sophisticated culture.

By that logic, it should not matter that "Lemore" is not a perfect anagram of "Mellario".  There might be all sorts of different variants and spellings of both names.  

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Its not ad hominem. It wasn't an attack on the person, it was an attack on the argument.

It was ad argumentum when you said you did not find the point convincing.  It was ad hominem when you argued that my making the point damaged my credibility, so that the rest of my argument could be dismissed as well.

You might want to stop doing that sort of thing. 

 

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

I'm not convinced of the Ashara theory, but I do not buy for a minute that a Valyrian/Targaryen looking baby grew up to look like Quentyn. 

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Quentyn would be Rhaegar's nephew

By marriage, not by blood.

[Mister Smikes]

15 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I'm not convinced of the Ashara theory, but I do not buy for a minute that a Valyrian/Targaryen looking baby grew up to look like Quentyn. 

What's the objection?  Do you believe it impossible for fair hair to turn brown?

Even better ... do you think it is impossible for fair hair to turn "the color of dried mud" (Arianne's memory of Quentyn).  What color do you think dried mud is?  

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By marriage, not by blood.

Okay.  But by blood Quentyn is Rhaegar's distant cousin -- possibly on both sides.  And of course he is a first cousin (by blood) of his son Aegon.

[corbon]

5 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

This is goalpost shifting.

Not intentionally. Sorry. 

5 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

If you want to get technical, Ashara is only referred to by the same term, "companion," in the text. Martin referred to her as a lady-in-waiting in an offhand remark 20 years ago.

Does that not count for you then? Does to me. 

I refer to historical usage  in comparative culture. Lady in Waiting is a formal position. Other ladies can also wait upon a queen, or crown princess, or be her companion at various times, but the formal position is something further, and usually closer. And both historically and to the best of our knowledge within ASoIaF, the numbers of such are small. A handful at most, for full queens. Possibly less for a Crown Princess.

5 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I don't even think the text supports your assertion about a stark distinction between companion and lady-in-waiting and Margaery having many of the former and few of the latter.

Its there historically, its used by GRRM wrt Ashara, and its found in the text. Thats relevant to me.

Do remember how fine a hair we are splitting here. The point is, was Ashara close to Elia and Rhaegar. The FACT is she is defined  by GRRM as part of their household (described with a historical formal position that is also referenced in the text as such), she's a similar age and similar origin in a 'foreign' court, and her brother is Rhaegar's closest companion. Even if you removed the Lady-in-Waiting position, its a very strong case, purely from Arthur's role and her being a young maiden come to a foreign court.

5 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Using the tool linked below to find and specify terms that consist of multiple words can be difficult, but I believe that this in the only time the exact term "lady/ladies in waiting" is used in reference to Margaery's companions:

No specification there on who exactly they are or how many of them there are. If we loosen things a little and look for similar but not exact wording, or how the term "companions" is used, we do get some other examples that I think are relevant.

There is also the case where Margaery's 'former' "Ladies in Waiting" are replaced by a Septa and 3 novices. Three for three works for me. The three cousins (see my wiki note  ), replaced by three novices, with a senior to watch over.

Its also a formal court post held previously by Joanna Lannister.
And Rhaenyra had 4 ladies in waiting.

5 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Two ladies always share her bed, different ones each night, implying that there's more than just a few. All three of her cousins are mentioned in this paragraph along with three others (not counting the septa), with no distinction drawn among them.

This description of Margaery's cousins seems to support the idea that Martin uses (lady) companion interchangeably with lady-in-waiting

Sometimes yes. The queen has various companions who don't hold the formal position and are often intermingled. So at times it can be used sort of interchangeably. That doesn't change the historical and referenced formal post situation. 
One of the things that makes GRRM's writing so 'real' is that just like real people his language use is sometimes imprecise. Or rather, when speaking as characters, he often has them use imprecise language just like real people do. That does not mean that the real precision behind their imprecise language doesn't exist, just that they are human and use sloppy, quicker, easier, or wide-encompassing terminology sometimes.
thats actually why I place high significance upon historical parallels in this sort of situation. We rarely get precise, formal information in ASoIaF because of the style GRRM uses to pass information to us. So fitting relevant historical precedents to sometimes imprecise language used by ASoIaF character, along with sometimes precise language used, helps our understanding considerably IMO. And maybe that will turn out wrong sometimes when GRRM provides new data points. But we go with the best we can do currently, for now.

For example, we assumed Ashara (most likely) had light coloured hair for most of 4 books as she was described as "tall and fair" and purple eyes seem to fit more with lighter hair. It was the best we had.
Then GRRM dropped she had dark hair in a Barristan POV and everything changed instantly. "Fair" had its other meaning only, after all. So be it.

5 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Unless some of "Margaery's ladies" are somehow not "ladies-in-waiting," this seems to imply a minimum of six (there's five mentioned here, and the phrase "two of Margaery's other ladies" implies more beyond just Meredyth and Janna) and there's multiple other ladies who are mentioned elsewhere in the text as companions of Margaery in similar contexts as Meredyth and Janna with little evidence to support any distinction. My final quote below seems to support that.

Yes. Just because a term is sometimes used interchangeably with another does not make that term always interchangeable. Some of Margaery's noble female companions are not formal Ladies-in-waiting. Its pretty simple really. 

5 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

This one seems pretty definitive unless you really want to argue that the "ladies waiting attendance" Cersei is referring to here might not all technically be "ladies-in-waiting."

Yes. 'Ladies' is its own title meaning more or less adult female nobility. And sometimes 'Ladies' can be 'waiting attendance' (an action, not a title) on someone else. That doesn't equate to the post of Lady-in-Waiting - who often also waits in attendance. Such is the historical usage in comparative cultures and such is what we appear to see in ASoIaF.

5 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I don't see how you can sustain an argument based on this over a specific term that's never used in the text to describe Ashara and doesn't appear to ever be exactly and explicitly used to refer to any specific companion of Margaery's.

But it is used in the text - to refer to Joanna, and to refer to some (but we are not explicitly clear which) of Margaery's companions and to refer to certain of Rhaenyra's companions.
And GRRM used it to refer to Ashara.

Now maybe he'll change that later, and so be it. But its the info we have from him at this stage and fits with what we have in the text without contradicting the text in any way.  

5 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Also, FWIW the ASOIAF wiki uses the same page to cover both "companion" and "lady-in-waiting." 

Yeah, well, WIW isn't very much. Its a general information guide only. In this case its simply covering a range of low information in a single group based purely on the strict text, without contextualising using historical information or deeper analysis.
Equally, FWIW, only Alla and Megga are given the title "Lady in Waiting" by the ASOIAF wiki, not even Elinor, whom I would likely include to fit the three novices. 

5 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

https://asearchoficeandfire.com/ (tool to find text in the books that I mentioned above)

Yes, I'm a heavy user.

5 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I think it's a safe bet that at least most of Elia's companions were Dornish, as Margaery's all appear to be from the Reach.

Its possible, yes, but its not the same situation. Maergery has come to court with her family, who know its a dangerous court for her but as they are the military might behind the throne, and present in KL, they have the power to place who they want with her.

Elia was not in the same situation. Though the court later became somewhat hostile, she was the King's choice of bride for his heir and although a different culture, already tied by ancestral connections. So when she was married she was coming to a friendly and familial situation with less need to keep only those she chose and trusted around her. So its less likely she had all-Dornish companions, though she may still have done so. 

So I don't agree that "its a safe bet". "Reasonable possibility", yes, but so is the possibility that she had few or no other Dornish Ladies-in-Waiting. No other Dornish women are mentioned at court.
More importantly though, Ashara is what we have. Thats the data we have, all else is speculative. So within the data we have, its very likely Ashara and Elia were close.

When we get more data, we'll adjust accordingly.

5 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

What you've presented here are some reasons to think they may have been close, but at the end of the day there's simply no basis for asserting as fact that Ashara was Elia's "closest companion." I'm not sure why there's so much insistence on this part. It could very well be true, I'm not saying it isn't.

I'm not insisting she was the very closest person (even though writing fast and trying to cover much territory might occasionally read that sorry), though I am pointing out its the most likely scenario given the data we have. I am pushing that she was clearly (ie very very likely without being definitively and explicitly told as much) close to Elia, given position, and brother's position, and some similarities in situation. 

OTOH you appear to be expending great effort to counter one small part of the makeup of this point? 
I assume thats merely love for the back and forth of the discussion and pushing towards clarity of understanding. 

5 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I don't think the Ashara = Lemore theory requires conclusive proof that she was Elia's best friend to be plausible.

Agreed. But if she was, and the data suggests she was, its a very strong point towards plausibility, going to motivation and connection. Much much stronger than any of the other cases.
As was literally asked here (paraphrased, so not all meanings of literally ), why would Ashara sacrifice her identity for Aegon?

5 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

All I'm saying is that there simply isn't near enough evidence at this point to make that claim as fact rather than speculation/theorizing.

Please bear in mind that in the interests of simplicity, often time during discussion writing is made simpler. I'm not sure I said it was a FACT that she was Elia's closest companion. If I did it was a sloppy abbreviation that the FACTs we have (only identified Lady in Waiting, Arthur, Only identified Dornish  (or any?) companion etc) point to this being a highly likely case.
I'm not perfect either. 

[corbon]

3 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

You say Ashara being a blank slate works for your theory.  Why, then, cannot Mellario being a blank slate work for my theory?

No. I point out that your claim that Ashara also 'doesn;t have a known child with her' is not the same as Mellario's situation. 

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Presumably, Doran would be in on it.  The suggestion is that Doran and Mellario baby-swapped their nephew for their son, and are plotting to put their son on the Iron Throne, while they sent their nephew to the Yronwoods

Nephew?
So now short stiocky, broad faced dark complected Quentytn s Rhaegar's Targaryen-looking son?
Never mind, it just gets less convincing the deeper you go. 

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Meanwhile, you are ignoring Mellario's connection to the Water Gardens, which is one big giant swimming pool. 

For kids. Ever see or hear of an adult swimming there?
And not where she grew up. She was an adult before she ever heard of it.
So yes, I'm ignoring it because its terrible. 

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It is perfectly plausible that Ashara can swim, and the same for Mellario.  Why is that not fair?

There is no point going over it further. Anyone can see what is written already.

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It is a true statement, and you are calling me a liar for saying it. 

Nope. I said it was a disingenuous statement and explained immediately exactly how. It was not candid. I even said it was true. But true or not it was deliberately used to show a meaning other than what it actually had, reinforced by your incorrect statement immediately following.

You didn't lie directly in that statement, but you did try to deceive readers and imply a meaning that wasn't there.

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  Both children are of a Valyrian-Martell mix, are first cousins, and to some extent resemble each other. 

There is no evidence of this at all.

All of the evidence we have refutes this in fact. None of the Martell children look like Aegon in any way. Never did, still don't.

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I don't recall the exact words, but the implication I got is that Arianne inherited her mother's beauty and buxom figure.  But I am certain there was nothing in the context suggesting it referred to hair or eye color.

Its not explicit exactly what the reference is, but it appears to be height and possibly general shape more than anything else. Doesn't matter, The point is made that Arianne bears some of her mother's characteristics, and all of them are opposite to Aegon.  Mellario isn't some secret Aegon-look-alike that passed her genes only on to Aegon.

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Do you then, not accept that Rhaenys is Aegon's brother and Rhaegar's son?  What's the difference?  

The difference is that GRRM said that and gave one sibling characteristics from the mother's side and the other from the father's side. And neither is as absolute as the everything that defines Aegon-vs-Martell-siblings.

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It was ad argumentum when you said you did not find the point convincing.  It was ad hominem when you argued that my making the point damaged my credibility, so that the rest of my argument could be dismissed as well.

You might want to stop doing that sort of thing. 

Go and look, thats simply not true. I said it damaged your argument's credibility not your own.

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

 <these are my words quoted from your post> Your (and other's) mileage is free to vary of course, but this detracts rather than enhances respect for the argument for me.

If I slipped up and somewhere else used you personally instead of your argument then I apologise. Sometimes writing is imprecise and I'm in two different conversations here, being reminded that sucking up this much time and energy for essentially nothing is one of the reasons I stopped coming here so often. 

How about we just leave it. You aren't going to be convinced your arguments are bad, and I'm not going to be convinced they aren't terrible. lets leave it at that eh? We'll see eventually.
 

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, corbon said:

Nephew?
So now short stiocky, broad faced dark complected Quentytn s Rhaegar's Targaryen-looking son?

Quentyn is not short.  Merely short legged.  He is of roughly average height.  Shorter than Pretty Meris but not by much.

Quentyn is not "dark complected".  Since you keep calling me a liar for saying true things, will you be honest enough to admit your mistake for saying UNTRUE things?

What's the problem with Rhaegar's son being stocky?  He is half Martell after all.  Do you think one can tell from looking at a toddler how long his legs will be when he grows up?

What's the problem with Rhaegar's son being broad faced?  Might not Rhaegar be broad faced as well?  He is certainly broad faced in the illustrations.

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Nope. I said it was a disingenouse statement and explained immmediately exactly how.

"disingenous" means you are accusing me of dishonesty

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It was not candid.

It was candid.  I meant exactly what I said.

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I even said it was true.

Then stop calling me a liar.  That's what "disingenuous" means.  At best it means "technically true, but still dishonest", and that's just as bad an insult.

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But true or not it was deliberately used to show a meaning other than what it actually had,

I meant exactly what I said.  And I honestly believed it suggested the possibility (not certainty) that they may have come from Norvos, thereby offereing some support, however tenuous, for the Mellario theory..

You don't have to be convinced by the points I raise.  But where do you get off pretending to read my mind, deciding I see no value in my own points either, and accusing me intentionally trying to deceive people???

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You didn't lie directly in that statement, but you did try to deceive readers and imply a meaning that wasn't there.

I did not try to deceive anyone.  I referred to something that actually is in the books, and I assume you have all read, and which you can all check for yourselves.  And which I honestly believe suggests the possibility (not certainty) that they may have come from Norvos.

I'm getting tired of your insults.

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, corbon said:

Go and look, thats simply not true. I said it damaged your argument's credibility not your own.

It was a completely isolated point that had no connection whatsoever to any of my other points.  It did not affect the rest of my argument at all.  Either you meant this damaged my personal credibility, or it was complete gibberish.  

I don't buy the "gibberish" theory.  This is a  pattern with you.  These attacks on my "credibility" were supplemented by repeatedly calling me "disingenuous", calling me "not candid", and accusing me of "trying to deceive" other posters.

[Mister Smikes]

Illustration of Rhaegar, from TWOIAF, into which I believe GRRM had some input:

Strong jaw.   Broad face.  Broad nose.  High forehead.

File:Rhaegar twoiaf.jpg - A Wiki of Ice and Fire (westeros.org)

[Ran]

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Illustration of Rhaegar, from TWOIAF, into which I believe GRRM had some input:

Strong jaw.   Broad face.  Broad nose.  High forehead.

File:Rhaegar twoiaf.jpg - A Wiki of Ice and Fire (westeros.org)

George did not provide input on that particular piece of art, and indeed on most of the art other than a small portion of it in the early stages.

(Funny story: this particular Rhaegar piece was completely speculative from the artist, as they really wanted to do a Rhaegar piece and just submitted it to the art director in addition to the pieces that had been commissioned from them.)