Ned's execution and Red Wedding.

[Kandrax]

Both of these events shocked readers more than any other. But, were they, really, that much unpredictable? 

Before Ned's beheading, Joff promised to Sansa that he would be mercifull. Was he portrayed as someone whom we can trust? Nope, he was portrayed in a negative way in earlier chapters. Personally, i believe  that it would be more shocking if he was portrayed as positive character.

Same with RW. Was Walder shown in good light? Nope, he was said to be sit fencer.  Also, even before massacre began, readers will get ominous feeling that something bad will happen.

[The Sunland Lord]

Due to the nihilistic way of the ongoing things in the series we are used to, the RW wasn't any surprise, and was very predictable. 

Ned's execution was still shocking. Because it's early on in story and you're not used to see main characters being killed off. But this is the kind of event which makes you expect the worse afterwards.

 

[Ylath's Snout]

The thing is the book is written from a first person perspective and those POVs didn't see them coming so if you are sucked into the writing you won't be seeing it coming either.

I sure this will happen in the future with the show and theorizing with the books we do have I suspect that a lot of readers will have a lot of ideas about who'll betray who and such rattling around in their head.

It isn't like there were a bunch of channels on youtube all about aSoIaF with hundreds of thousands of subs and the like combing through ever book for hints like that back then.

[Lord Lannister]

I managed to read the first novel spoiler free, and I'll say Ned's death shocked me. I was expecting him to be allowed to join the Night's Watch, and even after Joffrey's command, I was like "Well Yoren and Arya are there, they'll manage to yank him into the crowd somehow.. that'll probably be kind of dumb how they pull it off." Then a page later I was like "Holy crap they killed him!" The notion of killing the primary protagonist in the first of a series of novels did surprise me. 

As to the Red Wedding... well, season 4 of the show was out by the time I started reading the novels and someone just -had- to spoil me to that one. So I was able to see the signs and build up that it was coming. Even still the sheer brutality of it was surprising. 

[Euron III Greyjoy]

Ned's execution was very shocking. It was only near the end of the first book, and we didn't really know the characters all that well, especially the ones we didn't have a POV for. Before he became King sure Joffrey was a prick, but we had no reason to believe he would pull a move like that. 

The Red Wedding wasn't really shocking per say, but it did take me by surprise at how suddenly it happened. One minute I was there reading Catelyn eating shitty food, and the next Robb has a quarrel sticking out of him. It also took me by surprise just how brutal it was, I thought if Walder Frey was going to try anything, it would have been more subtle. 

[Legitimate_Bastard]

I may just be a sucker but I didn't see either one coming - granted it has been years since I first read all that so who knows how it would be if I read it for the first time much older.

As Ylath's Snout said, I was so engrossed in the POV's that I was blown away.

Having analyzed and thought about the whole ASOIAF universe so much since the last book I do not think I will be so easily shocked again.

[zandru]

Put me down as surprised, shocked, dismayed ... I still haven't gotten over Ned's death. I still want vengeance on the Freys and Boltons for the Red Wedding. I was all for Lady Stoneheart, until she ordered Brienne and Pod hung. Oh, and that other dude who's attached himself to her, Hyle Hunt? I'd just leave him on his rope, but that would be wrong.

[Rufus Snow]

Well, I have to admit I saw the ... other thing ... before I got right with the Gods and read the books too. And yeah, both shocking, can't claim to have seen either coming.

But... having seen a major character killed off so quickly, it was pretty obvious that this wasn't going to be just another monomythic hero's tale I still wouldn't rule out an ending along the lines: ...and they all died. The end.

[Wisconsin]

12 hours ago, Kandrax said:

Both of these events shocked readers more than any other. But, were they, really, that much unpredictable? 

Before Ned's beheading, Joff promised to Sansa that he would be mercifull. Was he portrayed as someone whom we can trust? Nope, he was portrayed in a negative way in earlier chapters. Personally, i believe  that it would be more shocking if he was portrayed as positive character.

Same with RW. Was Walder shown in good light? Nope, he was said to be sit fencer.  Also, even before massacre began, readers will get ominous feeling that something bad will happen.

Ned was a surprise.  It seemed like an agreement to send him to the wall was reached.  Losing to Cersei was not a surprise.  Getting executed was.  

The red wedding did not surprise.  Robb was screwing up too badly for anything good to happen.  It started with Theon's turning coat to be with his family.  A Stark can understand this because they more than anyone chooses their pack over their oaths.  Theon did not do anything different than any Stark would.  Robb fucking with Walder Frey the way he did demanded for something bad to happen to him.