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Dreadscythe95

The Martell conspiracy could also be a Tyrell conspiracy (spoilers)

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After finishing ADWD for a second time I have the feeling that something greater than The Martell conspiracy that Martin exposes to us is happening in the South. Everyone that has read ADWD at this point already knows that The Martells are conspiring against the Lannisters to bring back the Targaryens to the Iron Throne. The thing is that after re-reading the books again I think that The Tyrells are also in the same conspiracy.

What are the clues?

1.  They were both Targaryen loyalists back in the day. This is the weakest point but it's true that both houses supported The Dragons for different reasons back then at Robert's Rebellion even though none of the two really appreciated The Mad King.

2. They are blatantly shown as having a deep hatred for each other (by Martin) on the purple wedding. And they expressed it on the Lannisters and their court many times. If that is not suspicious if you are familar with Martin's writing style then I don't know what is.

3. The whole "Willas Tyrell and Oberyn Martell corresponding via raven messages after the Tourney accident" arc. First of all the incident happened on a period that Oberyn Martell left Dorn frequently and around the time he traveled to Braavos, where Viserys and Daenerys were living with Ser Willem Darry and they signed the marriage pact, promising Viserys the hand of Princess Arianne in marriage. I feel that the whole Martel/Tyrell feud restarted back then just to make the realm believe that they hate each other and not suspect them (considering that both houses are considered traitors for Iron Throne).

4. The fact that WIllas Tyrell, The Golden Rose of Highgarden is still unmarried and he also has a good "excuse" of it. This is mostly explained by the above. We know that Doran tried to keep Arianne unmarried by finding her old husbands etc, probably something similar is happening to Willas Tyrell. Garlan is married even though he is younger and Loras won't marry anytime soon, while Margaery has already married thrice (we will talk about her later). So why is Willas still unmarrried and has also never left Highgarden for King's Landing?

5. The "blaming" of Tyrion Lannister. In ASOS we learn that The Tyrells (Garlan actually) have a strong appreciation for Tyrion Lannister, even acknowledging his part on The Blackwater. So The Tyrells knew that Tyrion was a dangerous enemy when aligned with the Lannisters and a strong ally if he somehow ended up on their side. So what if when Olenna Tyrell conspired with Varys to murdered Joffrey part of the plan was also to blame Tyrion so that then Varys would smuggle him away to Aegon or Daenerys? (which one is still unclear). Tyrion hates The Lannisters now and wants to destroy his own family, that's very convinient for The Targaryen lobby.

6. Margaery's marriages and failures of pregnancy by 3 (almost 4) Baratheon husbands. It seems suspicious that the Tyrells worked that hard to have Margaery end up with an 8-year-old King who can't give her an heir, that is a big problem because it denies House Tyrell permanent power over the Iron throne, except if they don't intend to stay in that position for too long. Which leads to my next point.

7. The routes that House Tyrell has planted on King's Landing in the end of ADWD. By the end of Dragons House Tyrell has almost complete control of the small council, a Queen that can control her young King, an heir as a King's guard member and they almost had strong influence over The North (with Sansa). This means that The Tyrells practically control the crown, they have a strong influence over the Stormlands (once Stannis gets out of the way) through Tommen and they would also have control over the North through Sansa if it wasn't of Littlefinger, yet noone would accept them as kings and they have a lot of enemies everywhere. Still, if someone allied with them, they could practically give them The Iron Throne without even a single fight needed (*cough cough* Daenerys). And if the Tyrells manage to eliminate their Lanniser rivals they also give Daenerys control of Casterly Rock through Tyrion. Also it needs to be noted that Varysplays a big part when it comes to  making The Tyrells achieve that levels of power as we saw in the end of ADWD and we all know that Varys is a Targaryen loyalist.

8. The death of Tywin. Tywin dying by Tyrion was most probably a part of noones plan BUT we all know that for some reason Tywin's body was stinking as hell in his funeral which puts suspicions of poisoning. Both The Tyrells and The Martells had a lot of reasons to poison Tywin but whoever did it we know that The Tyrells kind of mocked his funeral, like they expected it. Also the Gardener coin Varys leaves behind makes Cersei even more suspicious and kind of enhances her downfall, which in the end of the day strengthens the position of The Tyrells.

9. Ths suspiciously deadly injuries of Loras Tyrell on Dragonstone. The letter describing Loras injuries is quite suspicious to all the readers. Could Loran have left Westeros to join his Targaryen allies on Mereen (or maybe even Storm's End)?

Idk how do you guys feel about this theory and maybe I am exaggerating because of my love of House Tyrell in the books but they seem to me like they do have a deeper plan than just making Margaery queen of westeros and the fact that we get on POVs even though Martis has mentioned before the importance of Willas and Garlan in the story in definitely no coinsidence. 

What is not clear for my theory though is if Aegon and Daenerys are in the same lobby for the The Tyrells and The Martells and if the two houses are actually fully on the same side or if they are having a race to put a Targaryen first on The Iron Throne.

What are your thoughts though? 

Edited by Dreadscythe95

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Where is the motive ? The Martells have a motive, but the Tyrells ? No, the Tyrells are not the leader. The Hightowers ( and with them the Tyrells ) are in the game. It is the one powerful house that has not made a move yet.

Edited by SirArthur

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2 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

Where is the motive ? The Martells have a motive, but the Tyrells ? No, the Tyrells are not the leader. The Hightowers ( and with them the Tyrells ) are in the game. It is the one powerful house that has not made a move yet.

The motive is that after Rober's rebellion the Tyrells have lost a lot of court influence and they also don't have the stability that Highgarden needs. Remember that they are still not loved by many of their bannermen. Under a united Targaryen rule the influence of Highgarden over the realm will be massive. I do believe that The Hightowers are also in the conspiracy but we don't know anything yet about them that implies that.

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5 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

The motive is that after Rober's rebellion the Tyrells have lost a lot of court influence and they also don't have the stability that Highgarden needs. Remember that they are still not loved by many of their bannermen. Under a united Targaryen rule the influence of Highgarden over the realm will be massive. I do believe that The Hightowers are also in the conspiracy but we don't know anything yet about them that implies that.

I have heard a lot of theories over the years how it should be. So let's get factual by looking at the details. 

The most powerful houses are Tyrell, Hightower, Redwyne. House Tyrell has their support.

The middle power houses are numerous, but have one problem: enemies of the Tyrells like Florent or Crane are already eliminated. 

And then we have the Targaryen haters like Merryweather. We also have further Tyrell marriages like with house Ambrose. No, I think the Reach is very hard in Tyrell's pocket. 

Also Willas should have married Sansa, so no holding back for Dany. 

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5 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

I have heard a lot of theories over the years how it should be. So let's get factual by looking at the details. 

The most powerful houses are Tyrell, Hightower, Redwyne. House Tyrell has their support.

The middle power houses are numerous, but have one problem: enemies of the Tyrells like Florent or Crane are already eliminated. 

And then we have the Targaryen haters like Merryweather. We also have further Tyrell marriages like with house Ambrose. No, I think the Reach is very hard in Tyrell's pocket. 

Also Willas should have married Sansa, so no holding back for Dany. 

I do believe that they have control over the reach, the whole betrayal seems a bit off to me as well. The Tyrells have worked hard to make strong bonds in the reach the last 300 years. The thing is that I do believe that Highgarden has a lot ot gain from a Targaryen alliance.

Also I don't believe that The Tyrells want to marry Willas with Daenerys, they could be but they could also keep her safe and unmarried there tii Daenerys comes or they could still marry her to Willas andd gain even more influence.Still, I think that they just want the favor of the Iron Throne and not the burden it offers. Under Daenerys rule the Tyrells would definitely have the strongest place on court (with The Martells) and would keep Growing Strong, unlike with The Baratheons that were favoring The Lannisters and Stannis that hated them.

Edited by Dreadscythe95

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50 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

Under Daenerys rule the Tyrells would definitely have the strongest place on court (with The Martells) and would keep Growing Strong, unlike with The Baratheons that were favoring The Lannisters and Stannis that hated them.

Why ? How can we know ? Are you making things up like some youtubers ?

Oh and btw. the Lannister influence is also factual wrong. Robert's small council had exactly one Lannister supporter: Pycelle. Other houses in the small council:

Arryn: 2, Lord Arryn and Baelish

Baratheon: 2 Renly and Stannis

Varys is unknown.

What kicked the Lannister power was the void Arryn left. Robert tried to counter it, but failed. Also keep in mind that Tyrells are already Warden of the South, a military rank together with Lannister, Stark and Arryn.

They have 3 council positions atm. under Tommen: hand, land and ships. They already have the strongest position under Tommen. The motive is still missing.

 

edit: All of this sounds maybe harsher than I mean it. It's not good when your idea is outright rejected and I agree with some of your reasoning: there is another conspirator besides the Martells. And I also agree that the Tyrells are Targ supporters. I just don't understand, why they should be the driving force. 

 

This is Viserys' opinion on the matter:

The realm will rise for its rightful king. Tyrell, Redwyne, Darry, Greyjoy, they have no more love for the Usurper than I do. 

Maybe I'm wrong here, but Redwyne, Darry or Greyjoy also have no pro Targ motive, they have an anti Baratheon motive. (when we want to believe the beggar king)

Edited by SirArthur

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There’s no motive for rebelling, there position as wardens of the south among their bannermen is as good as it gets for a house viewed as upstarts and they’re the de facto rulers of Westeros now house Lannister is on the down and with an impressionable right year old on the throne, why would they rebel?

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1 hour ago, SirArthur said:

Why ? How can we know ? Are you making things up like some youtubers ?

Oh and btw. the Lannister influence is also factual wrong. Robert's small council had exactly one Lannister supporter: Pycelle. Other houses in the small council:

Arryn: 2, Lord Arryn and Baelish

Baratheon: 2 Renly and Stannis

Varys is unknown.

What kicked the Lannister power was the void Arryn left. Robert tried to counter it, but failed. Also keep in mind that Tyrells are already Warden of the South, a military rank together with Lannister, Stark and Arryn.

They have 3 council positions atm. under Tommen: hand, land and ships. They already have the strongest position under Tommen. The motive is still missing.

 

edit: All of this sounds maybe harsher than I mean it. It's not good when your idea is outright rejected and I agree with some of your reasoning: there is another conspirator besides the Martells. And I also agree that the Tyrells are Targ supporters. I just don't understand, why they should be the driving force. 

 

This is Viserys' opinion on the matter:

The realm will rise for its rightful king. Tyrell, Redwyne, Darry, Greyjoy, they have no more love for the Usurper than I do. 

Maybe I'm wrong here, but Redwyne, Darry or Greyjoy also have no pro Targ motive, they have an anti Baratheon motive. (when we want to believe the beggar king)

The Lannisters were still in control of the crown, financially.

As for the motive I think they have a lot to gain by backing up The Targaryens without needing to back up the crown directly. think of it, now that The Tyrells rule, they have to support the crown themselves, during a Targaryen reign, they keep growing on Highgarden like they did before the rebellion.

Also don't worry, I don't think you were too harsh man, it's ok. I see your point anyway. The motive is indeed weak at this point but I think we will have more info next book. Maybe it's not such a full conspiracy but they are definitely up to something.

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1 hour ago, •Brandon Ice Eyes said:

There’s no motive for rebelling, there position as wardens of the south among their bannermen is as good as it gets for a house viewed as upstarts and they’re the de facto rulers of Westeros now house Lannister is on the down and with an impressionable right year old on the throne, why would they rebel?

They don't even need to rebel, they just change ruler to someone they have more to gain from in the long run. I do understand the lack of motive but there also so muany evidence... We shall see...

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I don't think it is the Tyrells that are in a conspiracy with the Martells, but Doran boast of friends at court in ADwD. Connington and the Golden Company also boasts friendship with pro-Targaryen forces in the Reach. None of this should come as a surprise. The Reach is made up of powerful families whose loyalties to Robert were never certain. They also look at the Tyrells as up jumped Stewards. As others before me have pointed to a prime suspect in this regard is Lord Mathis Rowan.

This quote may be a clue.

Quote

"Prince Doran comes at my son's invitation," Lord Tywin said calmly, "not only to join in our celebration, but to claim his seat on this council, and the justice Robert denied him for the murders of his sister Elia and her children."

Tyrion watched the faces of the Lords Tyrell, Redwyne, and Rowan, wondering if any of the three would be bold enough to say, "But Lord Tywin, wasn't it you who presented the bodies to Robert, all wrapped up in Lannister cloaks?" None of them did, but if was there on their faces all the same. Redwyne does not give a fig, he thought, but Rowan looks to fit to gag. (ASoS 214) bold emphasis added.

 

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On ‎9‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 3:31 PM, Dreadscythe95 said:

snip

The Reach and Dorne are ancient enemies -- a hostility that dates back thousands of years. It was only by happenstance that both principal houses supported Aerys during the rebellion, but even then they were largely kept to separate theaters (The Martells to the Trident and the Tyrells mostly to Storm's End.) So I doubt very much that they are in league now, even though both have a vested interest in undoing the power grab that Tywin is making in the realm.

Much of your confusion regarding the Purple Wedding comes from the common belief that Joffrey was the target and the poison was in the wine. Hopefully the next book will put that silly assumption to rest by stating plainly that the poison was in the pie and the target was Tyrion. This would strike a severe blow to Tywin by undoing his marriage to the north and getting Sansa out from his control, and it would also mean Margaery becomes queen while Cersei is shipped off to her next husband. Once Margery pops out an heir or two, Joffrey can be removed -- privately, and with no witnesses -- so that Margaery becomes queen regent for the next decade or so, and then her son after.

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