The Martell conspiracy could also be a Tyrell conspiracy (spoilers)

[Dreadscythe95]

After finishing ADWD for a second time I have the feeling that something greater than The Martell conspiracy that Martin exposes to us is happening in the South. Everyone that has read ADWD at this point already knows that The Martells are conspiring against the Lannisters to bring back the Targaryens to the Iron Throne. The thing is that after re-reading the books again I think that The Tyrells are also in the same conspiracy.

What are the clues?

1.  They were both Targaryen loyalists back in the day. This is the weakest point but it's true that both houses supported The Dragons for different reasons back then at Robert's Rebellion even though none of the two really appreciated The Mad King.

2. They are blatantly shown as having a deep hatred for each other (by Martin) on the purple wedding. And they expressed it on the Lannisters and their court many times. If that is not suspicious if you are familar with Martin's writing style then I don't know what is.

3. The whole "Willas Tyrell and Oberyn Martell corresponding via raven messages after the Tourney accident" arc. First of all the incident happened on a period that Oberyn Martell left Dorn frequently and around the time he traveled to Braavos, where Viserys and Daenerys were living with Ser Willem Darry and they signed the marriage pact, promising Viserys the hand of Princess Arianne in marriage. I feel that the whole Martel/Tyrell feud restarted back then just to make the realm believe that they hate each other and not suspect them (considering that both houses are considered traitors for Iron Throne).

4. The fact that WIllas Tyrell, The Golden Rose of Highgarden is still unmarried and he also has a good "excuse" of it. This is mostly explained by the above. We know that Doran tried to keep Arianne unmarried by finding her old husbands etc, probably something similar is happening to Willas Tyrell. Garlan is married even though he is younger and Loras won't marry anytime soon, while Margaery has already married thrice (we will talk about her later). So why is Willas still unmarrried and has also never left Highgarden for King's Landing?

5. The "blaming" of Tyrion Lannister. In ASOS we learn that The Tyrells (Garlan actually) have a strong appreciation for Tyrion Lannister, even acknowledging his part on The Blackwater. So The Tyrells knew that Tyrion was a dangerous enemy when aligned with the Lannisters and a strong ally if he somehow ended up on their side. So what if when Olenna Tyrell conspired with Varys to murdered Joffrey part of the plan was also to blame Tyrion so that then Varys would smuggle him away to Aegon or Daenerys? (which one is still unclear). Tyrion hates The Lannisters now and wants to destroy his own family, that's very convinient for The Targaryen lobby.

6. Margaery's marriages and failures of pregnancy by 3 (almost 4) Baratheon husbands. It seems suspicious that the Tyrells worked that hard to have Margaery end up with an 8-year-old King who can't give her an heir, that is a big problem because it denies House Tyrell permanent power over the Iron throne, except if they don't intend to stay in that position for too long. Which leads to my next point.

7. The routes that House Tyrell has planted on King's Landing in the end of ADWD. By the end of Dragons House Tyrell has almost complete control of the small council, a Queen that can control her young King, an heir as a King's guard member and they almost had strong influence over The North (with Sansa). This means that The Tyrells practically control the crown, they have a strong influence over the Stormlands (once Stannis gets out of the way) through Tommen and they would also have control over the North through Sansa if it wasn't of Littlefinger, yet noone would accept them as kings and they have a lot of enemies everywhere. Still, if someone allied with them, they could practically give them The Iron Throne without even a single fight needed (*cough cough* Daenerys). And if the Tyrells manage to eliminate their Lanniser rivals they also give Daenerys control of Casterly Rock through Tyrion. Also it needs to be noted that Varysplays a big part when it comes to  making The Tyrells achieve that levels of power as we saw in the end of ADWD and we all know that Varys is a Targaryen loyalist.

8. The death of Tywin. Tywin dying by Tyrion was most probably a part of noones plan BUT we all know that for some reason Tywin's body was stinking as hell in his funeral which puts suspicions of poisoning. Both The Tyrells and The Martells had a lot of reasons to poison Tywin but whoever did it we know that The Tyrells kind of mocked his funeral, like they expected it. Also the Gardener coin Varys leaves behind makes Cersei even more suspicious and kind of enhances her downfall, which in the end of the day strengthens the position of The Tyrells.

9. Ths suspiciously deadly injuries of Loras Tyrell on Dragonstone. The letter describing Loras injuries is quite suspicious to all the readers. Could Loran have left Westeros to join his Targaryen allies on Mereen (or maybe even Storm's End)?

Idk how do you guys feel about this theory and maybe I am exaggerating because of my love of House Tyrell in the books but they seem to me like they do have a deeper plan than just making Margaery queen of westeros and the fact that we get on POVs even though Martis has mentioned before the importance of Willas and Garlan in the story in definitely no coinsidence. 

What is not clear for my theory though is if Aegon and Daenerys are in the same lobby for the The Tyrells and The Martells and if the two houses are actually fully on the same side or if they are having a race to put a Targaryen first on The Iron Throne.

What are your thoughts though? 

[SirArthur]

Where is the motive ? The Martells have a motive, but the Tyrells ? No, the Tyrells are not the leader. The Hightowers ( and with them the Tyrells ) are in the game. It is the one powerful house that has not made a move yet.

[Dreadscythe95]

2 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

Where is the motive ? The Martells have a motive, but the Tyrells ? No, the Tyrells are not the leader. The Hightowers ( and with them the Tyrells ) are in the game. It is the one powerful house that has not made a move yet.

The motive is that after Rober's rebellion the Tyrells have lost a lot of court influence and they also don't have the stability that Highgarden needs. Remember that they are still not loved by many of their bannermen. Under a united Targaryen rule the influence of Highgarden over the realm will be massive. I do believe that The Hightowers are also in the conspiracy but we don't know anything yet about them that implies that.

[SirArthur]

5 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

The motive is that after Rober's rebellion the Tyrells have lost a lot of court influence and they also don't have the stability that Highgarden needs. Remember that they are still not loved by many of their bannermen. Under a united Targaryen rule the influence of Highgarden over the realm will be massive. I do believe that The Hightowers are also in the conspiracy but we don't know anything yet about them that implies that.

I have heard a lot of theories over the years how it should be. So let's get factual by looking at the details. 

The most powerful houses are Tyrell, Hightower, Redwyne. House Tyrell has their support.

The middle power houses are numerous, but have one problem: enemies of the Tyrells like Florent or Crane are already eliminated. 

And then we have the Targaryen haters like Merryweather. We also have further Tyrell marriages like with house Ambrose. No, I think the Reach is very hard in Tyrell's pocket. 

Also Willas should have married Sansa, so no holding back for Dany. 

[Dreadscythe95]

5 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

I have heard a lot of theories over the years how it should be. So let's get factual by looking at the details. 

The most powerful houses are Tyrell, Hightower, Redwyne. House Tyrell has their support.

The middle power houses are numerous, but have one problem: enemies of the Tyrells like Florent or Crane are already eliminated. 

And then we have the Targaryen haters like Merryweather. We also have further Tyrell marriages like with house Ambrose. No, I think the Reach is very hard in Tyrell's pocket. 

Also Willas should have married Sansa, so no holding back for Dany. 

I do believe that they have control over the reach, the whole betrayal seems a bit off to me as well. The Tyrells have worked hard to make strong bonds in the reach the last 300 years. The thing is that I do believe that Highgarden has a lot ot gain from a Targaryen alliance.

Also I don't believe that The Tyrells want to marry Willas with Daenerys, they could be but they could also keep her safe and unmarried there tii Daenerys comes or they could still marry her to Willas andd gain even more influence.Still, I think that they just want the favor of the Iron Throne and not the burden it offers. Under Daenerys rule the Tyrells would definitely have the strongest place on court (with The Martells) and would keep Growing Strong, unlike with The Baratheons that were favoring The Lannisters and Stannis that hated them.

[SirArthur]

50 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

Under Daenerys rule the Tyrells would definitely have the strongest place on court (with The Martells) and would keep Growing Strong, unlike with The Baratheons that were favoring The Lannisters and Stannis that hated them.

Why ? How can we know ? Are you making things up like some youtubers ?

Oh and btw. the Lannister influence is also factual wrong. Robert's small council had exactly one Lannister supporter: Pycelle. Other houses in the small council:

Arryn: 2, Lord Arryn and Baelish

Baratheon: 2 Renly and Stannis

Varys is unknown.

What kicked the Lannister power was the void Arryn left. Robert tried to counter it, but failed. Also keep in mind that Tyrells are already Warden of the South, a military rank together with Lannister, Stark and Arryn.

They have 3 council positions atm. under Tommen: hand, land and ships. They already have the strongest position under Tommen. The motive is still missing.

 

edit: All of this sounds maybe harsher than I mean it. It's not good when your idea is outright rejected and I agree with some of your reasoning: there is another conspirator besides the Martells. And I also agree that the Tyrells are Targ supporters. I just don't understand, why they should be the driving force. 

 

This is Viserys' opinion on the matter:

The realm will rise for its rightful king. Tyrell, Redwyne, Darry, Greyjoy, they have no more love for the Usurper than I do. 

Maybe I'm wrong here, but Redwyne, Darry or Greyjoy also have no pro Targ motive, they have an anti Baratheon motive. (when we want to believe the beggar king)

[Brandon Ice-Eyes]

There’s no motive for rebelling, there position as wardens of the south among their bannermen is as good as it gets for a house viewed as upstarts and they’re the de facto rulers of Westeros now house Lannister is on the down and with an impressionable right year old on the throne, why would they rebel?

[Dreadscythe95]

1 hour ago, SirArthur said:

Why ? How can we know ? Are you making things up like some youtubers ?

Oh and btw. the Lannister influence is also factual wrong. Robert's small council had exactly one Lannister supporter: Pycelle. Other houses in the small council:

Arryn: 2, Lord Arryn and Baelish

Baratheon: 2 Renly and Stannis

Varys is unknown.

What kicked the Lannister power was the void Arryn left. Robert tried to counter it, but failed. Also keep in mind that Tyrells are already Warden of the South, a military rank together with Lannister, Stark and Arryn.

They have 3 council positions atm. under Tommen: hand, land and ships. They already have the strongest position under Tommen. The motive is still missing.

 

edit: All of this sounds maybe harsher than I mean it. It's not good when your idea is outright rejected and I agree with some of your reasoning: there is another conspirator besides the Martells. And I also agree that the Tyrells are Targ supporters. I just don't understand, why they should be the driving force. 

 

This is Viserys' opinion on the matter:

The realm will rise for its rightful king. Tyrell, Redwyne, Darry, Greyjoy, they have no more love for the Usurper than I do. 

Maybe I'm wrong here, but Redwyne, Darry or Greyjoy also have no pro Targ motive, they have an anti Baratheon motive. (when we want to believe the beggar king)

The Lannisters were still in control of the crown, financially.

As for the motive I think they have a lot to gain by backing up The Targaryens without needing to back up the crown directly. think of it, now that The Tyrells rule, they have to support the crown themselves, during a Targaryen reign, they keep growing on Highgarden like they did before the rebellion.

Also don't worry, I don't think you were too harsh man, it's ok. I see your point anyway. The motive is indeed weak at this point but I think we will have more info next book. Maybe it's not such a full conspiracy but they are definitely up to something.

[Dreadscythe95]

1 hour ago, •Brandon Ice Eyes said:

There’s no motive for rebelling, there position as wardens of the south among their bannermen is as good as it gets for a house viewed as upstarts and they’re the de facto rulers of Westeros now house Lannister is on the down and with an impressionable right year old on the throne, why would they rebel?

They don't even need to rebel, they just change ruler to someone they have more to gain from in the long run. I do understand the lack of motive but there also so muany evidence... We shall see...

[SFDanny]

I don't think it is the Tyrells that are in a conspiracy with the Martells, but Doran boast of friends at court in ADwD. Connington and the Golden Company also boasts friendship with pro-Targaryen forces in the Reach. None of this should come as a surprise. The Reach is made up of powerful families whose loyalties to Robert were never certain. They also look at the Tyrells as up jumped Stewards. As others before me have pointed to a prime suspect in this regard is Lord Mathis Rowan.

This quote may be a clue.

Quote

"Prince Doran comes at my son's invitation," Lord Tywin said calmly, "not only to join in our celebration, but to claim his seat on this council, and the justice Robert denied him for the murders of his sister Elia and her children."

Tyrion watched the faces of the Lords Tyrell, Redwyne, and Rowan, wondering if any of the three would be bold enough to say, "But Lord Tywin, wasn't it you who presented the bodies to Robert, all wrapped up in Lannister cloaks?" None of them did, but if was there on their faces all the same. Redwyne does not give a fig, he thought, but Rowan looks to fit to gag. (ASoS 214) bold emphasis added.

 

[John Suburbs]

On ‎9‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 3:31 PM, Dreadscythe95 said:

snip

The Reach and Dorne are ancient enemies -- a hostility that dates back thousands of years. It was only by happenstance that both principal houses supported Aerys during the rebellion, but even then they were largely kept to separate theaters (The Martells to the Trident and the Tyrells mostly to Storm's End.) So I doubt very much that they are in league now, even though both have a vested interest in undoing the power grab that Tywin is making in the realm.

Much of your confusion regarding the Purple Wedding comes from the common belief that Joffrey was the target and the poison was in the wine. Hopefully the next book will put that silly assumption to rest by stating plainly that the poison was in the pie and the target was Tyrion. This would strike a severe blow to Tywin by undoing his marriage to the north and getting Sansa out from his control, and it would also mean Margaery becomes queen while Cersei is shipped off to her next husband. Once Margery pops out an heir or two, Joffrey can be removed -- privately, and with no witnesses -- so that Margaery becomes queen regent for the next decade or so, and then her son after.

[Dreadscythe95]

On 9/18/2018 at 5:48 PM, John Suburbs said:

 

Much of your confusion regarding the Purple Wedding comes from the common belief that Joffrey was the target and the poison was in the wine. Hopefully the next book will put that silly assumption to rest by stating plainly that the poison was in the pie and the target was Tyrion. This would strike a severe blow to Tywin by undoing his marriage to the north and getting Sansa out from his control, and it would also mean Margaery becomes queen while Cersei is shipped off to her next husband. Once Margery pops out an heir or two, Joffrey can be removed -- privately, and with no witnesses -- so that Margaery becomes queen regent for the next decade or so, and then her son after.

That's such an interesting concept (though it makes me sad because Garlan seemed quite fond of Tyrion). I guess when you play the Game Of Thrones...

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

That's such an interesting concept (though it makes me sad because Garlan seemed quite fond of Tyrion). I guess when you play the Game Of Thrones...

Garlan did not poison the pie. Lady Olenna was perfectly capable of doing it all by herself. Garland is only needed to poison the chalice, which is the absolutely very last thing either the Tyrells or Littlefinger would want at this stage of the game.

[Back door hodor]

I think that there could be something here the Willas and Oberyn connection in particular has always intrigued me and I think certain Tryells could definitely be Dorans friends at court(I'm not a fan of the theory the Doran is working with Varys)

[dmfn]

On 9/18/2018 at 10:48 PM, John Suburbs said:

The Reach and Dorne are ancient enemies -- a hostility that dates back thousands of years. It was only by happenstance that both principal houses supported Aerys during the rebellion, but even then they were largely kept to separate theaters (The Martells to the Trident and the Tyrells mostly to Storm's End.) So I doubt very much that they are in league now, even though both have a vested interest in undoing the power grab that Tywin is making in the realm.

Much of your confusion regarding the Purple Wedding comes from the common belief that Joffrey was the target and the poison was in the wine. Hopefully the next book will put that silly assumption to rest by stating plainly that the poison was in the pie and the target was Tyrion. This would strike a severe blow to Tywin by undoing his marriage to the north and getting Sansa out from his control, and it would also mean Margaery becomes queen while Cersei is shipped off to her next husband. Once Margery pops out an heir or two, Joffrey can be removed -- privately, and with no witnesses -- so that Margaery becomes queen regent for the next decade or so, and then her son after.

Back on the poison pie tip, I see. 

Even if Tyrion was a target for assassination, what good would it do to publicly poison him instead of killing him in his sleep or making it look like an accident? Making such a spectacle of killing Tyrion with a very expensive poison would surely implicate the Tyrells, who were still butthurt about losing Sansa. 

I agree that, of course, the Tyrells would have wanted to be rid of Tyrion, but not like that. 

And Littlefinger acknowledged his part in the regicide. There's unreliable characters, and then there's a character doing a monolog about who, what, when, where, why, how just to confuse a 14 year old girl who didn't need to know anything other than that she was finally able to escape King's Landing. 

I see that it's a little too "gift wrapped" the way that it's delivered to us, but we can only guess at what really happened for now. 

@Dreadscythe95

3. Wilas is unique and Oberyn is a total rare bird in his world. He was definitely a long time plotter and schemer. But I think he probably just didn't mean to injure Wilas, and was being cool about it. He already enjoyed a reputation as a killer, so I guess their correspondence was civil and friendly and nothing else. 

7. About the small council. I'm afraid their position at court weakens your argument against the throne. They are pretty well situated at the moment. 

9. Loras. For real though, wtf is he doing? 

All in all, I can't imagine the Tyrells and Martells working together. I think Doran is trying to have a foot in both camps, but that will be a problem later. 

And I think the Hightower are pulling strings from the reach with the Faith and Maesters. Neither of them have had a good relationship with dragons. 

 

[John Suburbs]

4 hours ago, dmfn said:

Back on the poison pie tip, I see. 

Even if Tyrion was a target for assassination, what good would it do to publicly poison him instead of killing him in his sleep or making it look like an accident? Making such a spectacle of killing Tyrion with a very expensive poison would surely implicate the Tyrells, who were still butthurt about losing Sansa. 

I agree that, of course, the Tyrells would have wanted to be rid of Tyrion, but not like that. 

And Littlefinger acknowledged his part in the regicide. There's unreliable characters, and then there's a character doing a monolog about who, what, when, where, why, how just to confuse a 14 year old girl who didn't need to know anything other than that she was finally able to escape King's Landing. 

I see that it's a little too "gift wrapped" the way that it's delivered to us, but we can only guess at what really happened for now. 

@Dreadscythe95

3. Wilas is unique and Oberyn is a total rare bird in his world. He was definitely a long time plotter and schemer. But I think he probably just didn't mean to injure Wilas, and was being cool about it. He already enjoyed a reputation as a killer, so I guess their correspondence was civil and friendly and nothing else. 

7. About the small council. I'm afraid their position at court weakens your argument against the throne. They are pretty well situated at the moment. 

9. Loras. For real though, wtf is he doing? 

All in all, I can't imagine the Tyrells and Martells working together. I think Doran is trying to have a foot in both camps, but that will be a problem later. 

And I think the Hightower are pulling strings from the reach with the Faith and Maesters. Neither of them have had a good relationship with dragons. 

 

They can't get to Tyrion in his sleep or privately. They have no insiders on his staff and it is unlikely that such a thing would not be noticed by a little bird. Also, they need the diversion at the wedding in order to get Sansa out, again, without being spotted by a little bird. People can suspect all they want, but with no proof there is nothing to be done.

Littlefinger is lying. He is the single biggest liar in the whole story. He has to lie to Sansa because he needs her to have complete confidence in him in order for her to carry out her part in all of this: becoming someone else, literally all the time -- an extremely difficult thing to do. There is no way she can have any confidence in Petyr if he were to say, "sorry Sansa, we meant to kill your husband but we killed the king instead. Now the whole realm thinks you're a kingslayer and Cersei has put a bounty on your head. But don't worry, sweetling, everything is going according to plan..." 

No, we don't need to guess. We can see beyond a shadow of the doubt that the poison was not in the wine, otherwise Joffrey would have been on his knees before Margaery finished her statement about Lord Buckler, just like Cressen was after Mel's bit about fire consuming. If not the wine, it had to be the pie (which, if you look closely, also lines up nearly identical to the Cressen poisoning, timing-wise), so ergo Tyrion was the target, not Joffrey.

[dmfn]

14 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

They can't get to Tyrion in his sleep or privately. They have no insiders on his staff and it is unlikely that such a thing would not be noticed by a little bird. Also, they need the diversion at the wedding in order to get Sansa out, again, without being spotted by a little bird. People can suspect all they want, but with no proof there is nothing to be done.

Littlefinger is lying. He is the single biggest liar in the whole story. He has to lie to Sansa because he needs her to have complete confidence in him in order for her to carry out her part in all of this: becoming someone else, literally all the time -- an extremely difficult thing to do. There is no way she can have any confidence in Petyr if he were to say, "sorry Sansa, we meant to kill your husband but we killed the king instead. Now the whole realm thinks you're a kingslayer and Cersei has put a bounty on your head. But don't worry, sweetling, everything is going according to plan..." 

No, we don't need to guess. We can see beyond a shadow of the doubt that the poison was not in the wine, otherwise Joffrey would have been on his knees before Margaery finished her statement about Lord Buckler, just like Cressen was after Mel's bit about fire consuming. If not the wine, it had to be the pie (which, if you look closely, also lines up nearly identical to the Cressen poisoning, timing-wise), so ergo Tyrion was the target, not Joffrey.

Respectfully, I disagree. 

We've only seen the Strangler used in wine. Cressen and Mel weren't drinking from the same sized glass, so I don't think the timing has anything to do with anything. 

Littlefinger lying doesn't point to pie. He wasn't trying to kill Tyrion so Sansa would be free to marry a Tyrrell. He has other plans for Sansa. 

I don't know how you can say "beyond a shadow of the doubt" about something that was deliberately written to be mysterious and ambiguous. There was a 99 page forum of people arguing about this just a few months ago. It isn't obvious to anyone what really happened or the characters in the story would know. 

[John Suburbs]

 

9 hours ago, dmfn said:

Respectfully, I disagree. 

We've only seen the Strangler used in wine. Cressen and Mel weren't drinking from the same sized glass, so I don't think the timing has anything to do with anything. 

Littlefinger lying doesn't point to pie. He wasn't trying to kill Tyrion so Sansa would be free to marry a Tyrrell. He has other plans for Sansa. 

I don't know how you can say "beyond a shadow of the doubt" about something that was deliberately written to be mysterious and ambiguous. There was a 99 page forum of people arguing about this just a few months ago. It isn't obvious to anyone what really happened or the characters in the story would know. 

Wine is used in both poisonings:

Quote

"Dry, though. Needs washing down." Joff took a swallow of wine, coughed again, more violently. "I want to see, kof, see you ride that, kof, kof, pig, Uncle. I want …" His words broke up in a fit of coughing.

Notice that once Joff washes the poison into his throat, we have virtually the same amount of time as when Cressen "tried to reply, but his words caught in his throat."

Joff may have had more wine in his chalice, but he also has a full crystal vs. Cressen's "flake." Also, at the end of the scene, Joff's wine is "deep purple" whereas Cressen doesn't note anything unusually about his half swallow at all. So if anything, Joff's wine is more concentrated -- as if that would have anything at all to do with the reaction time anyway, which would contradict all the laws of physics, chemistry and physiology.

As long as Tyrion is alive, Sansa cannot marry anyone. Remember, the Tyrell plan was to remove Sansa to Highgarden after the wedding, after he was planning to take her himself. So this Tyrell plot would in no way interfere with his plans for her, and yet he spills the beans to Tywin anyway, which can only have the predictable result of Tywin marrying her to a Lannister, of which Tyrion is the only likely candidate. So now, in order to avert a problem that didn't even exist, Littlefinger has to kill both Joffrey and Tyrion in this convoluted plan that could have gone off the rails at any point following the dwarf joust. Is he really this stupid? Is Lady O? I think not.

It should be obvious, painfully obvious. With the wine, the timing is wrong, the logistics are wrong, the motivations of the principal plotters are wrong, the entire run-up from the initial contact between LF and LO all the way to the wedding and beyond are wrong. With the pie, the timing is nearly exact, the logistics of poisoning the pie and the near-certain expectation that Tyrion and only Tyrion would eat it is rock solid, every event preceding the wedding -- from the delivery of the hairnet to the dinner convo with Lady O to the marriage to Tyrion fits with the motivations of the plotters and their understandings (not the reader's understandings) of events. When you look at the facts and just the facts, it is clear: the wine could not possibly have been poisoned. It had to be the pie, which means Tyrion was the target, not Joffrey.