Who will be Regent after DwD?

[argonak]

Who do you think will be become Regent with kevan dead?  Historically the small council gets to vote on it.  Small council as it currently stands:

Quote

Regent                                                  VACANT     
Hand of the King                                  Lord Mace Tyrell                           Tyrell Faction     
Grand Maester                                      VACANT     
Master of laws and justiciar                  Lord Randyll Tarly                        Tyrell Faction      
Master of coin and lord treasurer        Ser Harys Swyft                            Lannister faction
Master of ships and grand admiral       Lord Paxter Redwyne                   Tyrell Faction
Master of whisperers                             Qyburn                                        Lannister faction
Lord Commander of the Kingsguard    Ser Jaime Lannister                      Lannister faction
Advisor                                                  Nymeria Sand                              Unknown

 

At first thought, one would assume that the Tyrells are in control.  Their faction has 3 members on the council, Cersei has only 2 with Jaime away, and Nymeria is unknown.  However, that means Cersei only has to turn two votes to seize power.  This means getting Jamie back to town and turning Nymeria to her side before a new Grand Maester is appointed, as that is expected to be a Tyrell (Maester Gormon).

Of course, Nymeria absolutely hates Lannisters, so the question is how does Cersei turn her to her side?  Doran I could see making the political play to screw over the Tyrell-Lannister alliance, but Nymeria will only want to hurt the Lannisters.  Or maybe Cersei just does a straight up coup.  But to do that she has to get the Tyrell army to leave.

What does everyone else think is going to go down?

[Prince Yourwetdream Aeryn]

High Sparrow

[Angel Eyes]

6 minutes ago, argonak said:

Who do you think will be become Regent with kevan dead?  Historically the small council gets to vote on it.  Small council as it currently stands:

 

At first thought, one would assume that the Tyrells are in control.  Their faction has 3 members on the council, Cersei has only 2 with Jaime away, and Nymeria is unknown.  However, that means Cersei only has to turn two votes to seize power.  This means getting Jamie back to town and turning Nymeria to her side before a new Grand Maester is appointed, as that is expected to be a Tyrell (Maester Gormon).

Of course, Nymeria absolutely hates Lannisters, so the question is how does Cersei turn her to her side?  Doran I could see making the political play to screw over the Tyrell-Lannister alliance, but Nymeria will only want to hurt the Lannisters.  Or maybe Cersei just does a straight up coup.  But to do that she has to get the Tyrell army to leave.

What does everyone else think is going to go down?

That’s if Jaime gets back to town, and Harys is away.

[argonak]

I see.  i didn't realize he'd already left for Braavos.  that does make it harder for Cersei.  She's down two votes instead of 1.  All she's got is Qyburn.

[Euron III Greyjoy]

Right now Harys Swyft is away in Braavos, and Jaime is missing in the Riverlands. So that only leaves Qyburn for the Lannister faction, and I don't think he is really loyal to Cersei. With the upcoming trials and Aegon's invasion there might not even be enough time to officially appoint one before everything goes to shit. 

[argonak]

1 hour ago, EloImFizzy said:

Right now Harys Swyft is away in Braavos, and Jaime is missing in the Riverlands. So that only leaves Qyburn for the Lannister faction, and I don't think he is really loyal to Cersei. With the upcoming trials and Aegon's invasion there might not even be enough time to officially appoint one before everything goes to shit. 

See, I think Qyburn is the only one Cersei can truly rely on.  He's her only real friend, and without her he'll be chased out of King's Landing quick enough.  And if word gets out of the things he's done under her orders, he'll be executed for sure.

[Lord Varys]

It will be either Mace or the office is going to remain empty. Mace is the Hand of the King now. He speaks with the King's Voice. He doesn't have to be Lord Regent to rule the Realm, he already does.

As Hand Mace also doesn't have to care about votes or any such crap. He could just name a new Lord Regent as Hand of the King. But even if we assume the Small Council is going to discuss this issue, then Mace has two votes (his own and Tarly's) whereas the Lannisters would only have Harys Swyft's. Pycelle is dead, and Qyburn is no longer a member of the Small Council. Cersei is no longer a part of the council, anyway.

Nymeria and Paxter and Jaime are irrelevant because they are not likely to be back in the city before this issue is going to be discussed. If there is a new Lord Regent they will choose one immediately after Kevan's death, not in a few weeks or months. And chances are that Mace is not going to suffer Nymeria Sand on the Small Council, anyway (and neither would the Lannisters, of course).

[The Sleeper]

To misquote Terry Pratchett it is one man, one vote system. Mace is the man, he has the vote. He is either going to promote himself and name Tarly as Hand or appoint Margaery. 

[LordImp]

Mace Tyrell

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

To misquote Terry Pratchett it is one man, one vote system. Mace is the man, he has the vote. He is either going to promote himself and name Tarly as Hand or appoint Margaery. 

Margaery is far too young to serve as regent. She is barely a woman grown. Only a lackwit would entrust her with ruling an entire kingdom.

[SirArthur]

19 hours ago, argonak said:

Who do you think will be become Regent with kevan dead?  Historically the small council gets to vote on it.  Small council as it currently stands:

Cersei declared herself queen regent. Rules are fine, but they also somehow have to fit into the story we are told so far. 

[The Sleeper]

40 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Margaery is far too young to serve as regent. She is barely a woman grown. Only a lackwit would entrust her with ruling an entire kingdom.

As a figurehead. She's Tommen's queen after all. Mace rules regardless of title. 

[Lord Varys]

20 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

As a figurehead. She's Tommen's queen after all. Mace rules regardless of title. 

She would be a poor figurehead considering she stands accused of adultery. Even if she were acquitted, the dirt doesn't get away. Anyone can be regent, so there is no need to hand such a duty to a young woman with her reputation.

If Mace felt he needed a new regent he would likely take the title himself, if not, then nobody is going to become regent since there is actually no pressing need to fill that office. As Hand Mace also wields all the power he needs.

58 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

Cersei declared herself queen regent. Rules are fine, but they also somehow have to fit into the story we are told so far. 

That is not exactly true. From the 'official point of view' Eddard Stark betrayed the trust Robert had put in him when he named him Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm by attempting to seize the queen and her children, intending to replace Joffrey with Stannis.

After that coup was prevented, the Small Council and the king convened, named Cersei Lannister Queen Regent and made her a member of the Small Council. Later, when Cersei was imprisoned, the remnants of the Small Council (Pycelle and Swyft) took the regency from Cersei and offered the position to Ser Kevan, who took it.

Apparently, the king's Small Council can do that. 

[The Sleeper]

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

She would be a poor figurehead considering she stands accused of adultery. Even if she were acquitted, the dirt doesn't get away. Anyone can be regent, so there is no need to hand such a duty to a young woman with her reputation.

If Mace felt he needed a new regent he would likely take the title himself, if not, then nobody is going to become regent since there is actually no pressing need to fill that office. As Hand Mace also wields all the power he needs.

There needs to be a regent, even if in name only. Tommen is eight. It is close to having no head of state. In the event that Mace does not take the mantle himself, which is the most likely scenario, Margaery would be a viable candidate as she is Tommen's queen and despite the accusation, which even the Faith admits is flimsy, quite popular. It would free Mace whenever he doesn't feel like having his ass kissed to have Margaery holding court, which she would be better at. 

Given that any power the throne has is Tyrell power the titles mean little. It still wouldn't be the saviest move politically to dispense with the facade entirely. Mace though is perfectly capable of naming himself both Regent and Hand. 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

There needs to be a regent, even if in name only. Tommen is eight. It is close to having no head of state. In the event that Mace does not take the mantle himself, which is the most likely scenario, Margaery would be a viable candidate as she is Tommen's queen and despite the accusation, which even the Faith admits is flimsy, quite popular. It would free Mace whenever he doesn't feel like having his ass kissed to have Margaery holding court, which she would be better at. 

The king is the head of state, not the regent. The Hand could do exactly the same things as the regent does whether he is called regent or not. Tywin effectively ignored Cersei while she was Queen Regent, effectively serving as both Joff/Tommen's regent and Hand.

Mace could do the same. He could indefinitely postpone the appointment of a new regent. 

A woman would be a poor choice for a regent in any case, because nobody in Westeros wants to be ruled by a woman, and no father would gladly serve his own daughter - or appear to do that. As Queen Regent Margaery would technically/officially outrank her own father in a meaningful way (as queen consort, too, but in that capacity she has no role in the government).

If Mace is going to split the regency and the Handship (a stupid move) then it is more likely he'll make Tarly Hand and take the mantle of the regent himself. But that's actually stupid since there will only be a regent during the king's minority while the Hand could continue even after Tommen comes of age. Not to mention that Mace's fancy idea of building a new Tower of the Hand and sitting in that Hand throne doesn't indicate he intends to give up that office.

[The Sleeper]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The king is the head of state, not the regent.

I never said that. The point of the regent is to stand for the King when he is unable to fulfill his duties like in a case of minority. Like Tommen. It is also a question of who is the guardian of the King. That would be the regent. 

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The Hand could do exactly the same things as the regent does whether he is called regent or not. Tywin effectively ignored Cersei while she was Queen Regent, effectively serving as both Joff/Tommen's regent and Hand. 

Except order the regent around, who outranks him. Tywin ordered Cersei around because he had the real power and Cersei let him.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

A woman would be a poor choice for a regent in any case, because nobody in Westeros wants to be ruled by a woman, and no father would gladly serve his own daughter - or appear to do that. As Queen Regent Margaery would technically/officially outrank her own father in a meaningful way (as queen consort, too, but in that capacity she has no role in the government) 

That would be the identical arrangement with Cersei as regent and Tyrion and Tywin calling the shots and even later up until Cersei's arrest. No one objected. No one either thought that it was Cersei who ruled rather than Tywin. 

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

If Mace is going to split the regency and the Handship (a stupid move) then it is more likely he'll make Tarly Hand and take the mantle of the regent himself. But that's actually stupid since there will only be a regent during the king's minority while the Hand could continue even after Tommen comes of age. Not to mention that Mace's fancy idea of building a new Tower of the Hand and sitting in that Hand throne doesn't indicate he intends to give up that office.

You can't split the regency and being the Hand because they are not the same office to begin with. Mace can do whatever he wants. He holds all the power at court either way and any power the Iron Throne has at the moment comes from him for the most part. The point of having a different regent and Hand is to at least maintain a veneer of normal administration.

[The hairy bear]

Making a 16 year old girl as regent would make absolutely no sense. The point of having a regent is having someone experienced, trustworthy, and reliable to represent the king's best interests while he is minor.

If Eddard could be named both Regent and Hand, Mace shouldn't have any problem if he wanted to be Regent. But as it has been said, he do not have any need of an additional title.

[The Sleeper]

1 hour ago, The hairy bear said:

Making a 16 year old girl as regent would make absolutely no sense. The point of having a regent is having someone experienced, trustworthy, and reliable to represent the king's best interests while he is minor.

If Eddard could be named both Regent and Hand, Mace shouldn't have any problem if he wanted to be Regent. But as it has been said, he do not have any need of an additional title.

In addition to standing in for the king, the regent also has custody of him. Generally, speaking it tends to be a close relative. Tommen is running out of those. The only ones who would be have a good excuse are Mace and Margaery.

There is no point in being both Regent and Hand. It would be like the king appointing himself Hand. 

[Sigella]

It depends. There are a ton of uncertainties, like; how distracted will Mace be by Margs trial and Loras injuries and the IB hell raising? Or how much will he care to avoid being perceived as grasping?

Also Cersei isn't ever letting go of the power so she'll lunge for the regentship the moment she hears of Kevan and she will have a great advantage from having Qyburn in her pocket as well.

Or the High Sparrow? If he'd stoop so low, I can very much see a fanatic with his head full of septon Barth-fantasies go for it.

Or Tommen voices his opinion and makes Ser Pounce regent.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

I never said that. The point of the regent is to stand for the King when he is unable to fulfill his duties like in a case of minority. Like Tommen. It is also a question of who is the guardian of the King. That would be the regent. 

Not necessarily. A king can have a parent who isn't his regent, and who would, as such, still be his guardian but not in charge of his government. The regent(s) are in charge of the latter. And if you look at Aegon III's regency then that the striking feature there is that the king's family didn't play a great role in that one.

3 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Except order the regent around, who outranks him. Tywin ordered Cersei around because he had the real power and Cersei let him.

Tywin didn't set things up so that Cersei became regent. That was Cersei. Mace would have to be rather strange if he actually made his daughter his boss.

3 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

That would be the identical arrangement with Cersei as regent and Tyrion and Tywin calling the shots and even later up until Cersei's arrest. No one objected. No one either thought that it was Cersei who ruled rather than Tywin. 

If you go back and read the section in AGoT where it is announced that the Queen Regent is going to join the king's Small Council and actually take an active part in the government of the Realm people at this Lannister-dominated court actually do grumble. Nobody wants to follow the commands of a mere woman, especially not one who had taken no active part in the government before.

3 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

You can't split the regency and being the Hand because they are not the same office to begin with. Mace can do whatever he wants. He holds all the power at court either way and any power the Iron Throne has at the moment comes from him for the most part. The point of having a different regent and Hand is to at least maintain a veneer of normal administration.

Ideally, the regency and the Handship are in the same hand - that's how Robert wanted it when he named his Hand also Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm. Back during Jaehaerys' minority Rogar Baratheon and Alyssa Velaryon shared the Handship/Protector thing and the regency (and they quickly married each other). Aegon III's regency era was a disaster because there was a regency council where there was neither a clear hierarchy nor a well-established power structure. There were not only seven regents at the start, but also a Hand and a Protector of the Realm who originally didn't were regents. Unwin Peake later was both the Hand and one of the regents, and according to Ran he became Protector of the Realm as well, allowing him to really dominate the court.

We all think Tommen is a goner, but regardless how long the boy is going to remain a king with government, it would be very odd and contrary to any political intuition to not combine the regency and Handship - if a new regent is chosen.

2 hours ago, Sigella said:

Also Cersei isn't ever letting go of the power so she'll lunge for the regentship the moment she hears of Kevan and she will have a great advantage from having Qyburn in her pocket as well.

She is out of the game. She is no longer a part of the council nor does she have the power to force anyone to care about her opinion and desires. 

She could try to have Ser Robert kill everyone, but even that wouldn't give her the regency back because Ser Robert cannot possibly kill *everyone*.

I liked the idea of the High Septon cutting a deal with Mace - acquitting Margaery in exchange for the regency. That way he could have ensured that the restoration of the Faith Militant is going to be permanent. But that was before ADwD. Now it seems clear the Faith and the sparrows will eventually join Aegon, meaning the High Sparrow couldn't care less about who succeeds Ser Kevan as regent.