Who will be Regent after DwD?

[The Sleeper]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not necessarily. A king can have a parent who isn't his regent, and who would, as such, still be his guardian but not in charge of his government. The regent(s) are in charge of the latter. And if you look at Aegon III's regency then that the striking feature there is that the king's family didn't play a great role in that one. 

Can you provide an example? As far as I can tell the default regent in case of a minor is his closest adult relative. It also would be really awkward is the regent were not in charge of the king/lord. Ned was specifically appointed regent by Robert with the purpose of him being Joffrey's guardian.

Aegon III did not have much in the way of adult family members if I recall correctly and it was an attempt to have various factions represented in the government. His was an anomalous case though you could make that argument for every regency case.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin didn't set things up so that Cersei became regent. That was Cersei. Mace would have to be rather strange if he actually made his daughter his boss.

It is not like anyone had any misconceptions of who was in charge. It could be a workable arrangement for Mace in order to free himself from ceremonial duties and having to deal with Tommen day in, day out. 

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If you go back and read the section in AGoT where it is announced that the Queen Regent is going to join the king's Small Council and actually take an active part in the government of the Realm people at this Lannister-dominated court actually do grumble. Nobody wants to follow the commands of a mere woman, especially not one who had taken no active part in the government before.

There was some "soft murmuring" and in the same declaration Stannis was named traitor and removed from the council for no apparent reason. And Cersei did not take Stannis's position; she stood at the head of the council. I imagine that while there might have been some discontent due to Cersei taking over, Margaery would not necessarily need to take part in day to day governance. 

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Ideally, the regency and the Handship are in the same hand - that's how Robert wanted it when he named his Hand also Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm. 

I don't see what would be ideal about it. The point of various offices is to broaden the power base of the king. It can be problematic if the various persons holding the offices are working at cross purposes, but it can also be problematic if the throne is too insular. In this particular case it isn't much of an issue as Mace holds all the actual power. Ned didn't intend to take up that role for long, if he had remained regent he might have appointed a hand. Or not, Joffrey was much closer to his majority than Tommen is. 

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Back during Jaehaerys' minority Rogar Baratheon and Alyssa Velaryon shared the Handship/Protector thing and the regency (and they quickly married each other). 

Nope. Just checked. Alyssa was the regent and Rogar the Hand. As for the title of protector of the realm the title has gone to individuals other than the king in the cases of Rogar, Daemon Targaryen, Aemond during Aegon's II convalescence and ironically Cersei. It sounds to me like something analogous to "commander in chief", but they seem to be playing hard and fast with that particular title. There doesn't seem to be any particular rule regarding that title or specific duties. Aegon III is in no way, shape or form relevant. There were multiple factions then. Now it is only Mace and his vassals. 

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We all think Tommen is a goner, but regardless how long the boy is going to remain a king with government, it would be very odd and contrary to any political intuition to not combine the regency and Handship - if a new regent is chosen.

Tommen may be a goner, but he is still only nine. It would be weird to have no one nominally in charge for such a long time. And while Mace assuming the regency is an option (though a pointless one, in my opinion) and a likely one, not having even a nominal regent is weird. 

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

She is out of the game. She is no longer a part of the council nor does she have the power to force anyone to care about her opinion and desires. 

She could try to have Ser Robert kill everyone, but even that wouldn't give her the regency back because Ser Robert cannot possibly kill *everyone*.

Cersei's presence is very awkward for the Tyrells. She is still Queen Dowager and the Lady of Casterly Rock. They can't send her home because she could potentially regain power there. If she is found guilty, it would undermine Tommen's legitimacy. They can't keep her and can't get rid off her. They could either keep her locked up in Maegor's holdfast, or force her to become a septa. An assassination would be most handy. Still the Lannister guards at court will turn to her now that Kevan is dead. 

 

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I liked the idea of the High Septon cutting a deal with Mace - acquitting Margaery in exchange for the regency. That way he could have ensured that the restoration of the Faith Militant is going to be permanent. But that was before ADwD. Now it seems clear the Faith and the sparrows will eventually join Aegon, meaning the High Sparrow couldn't care less about who succeeds Ser Kevan as regent.

While I agree that eventually the High Sparrow will turn to Aegon, eventually the conditions have not been met yet. As things stand the Faith has a vested interest in keeping Tommen's rule as secure as possible as his is the seal on the decrees that allowed for the Faith to pass judgement and rearm. The most likely candidate to screw this up is Mace. 

Giving the High Sparrow any position in government, let alone the regency, would a particularly dumb idea unless one wants the seven kingdoms to become a theocracy. It is also completely out of character for Mace who is itching to put them all to the sword.

[Sigella]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

She is out of the game. She is no longer a part of the council nor does she have the power to force anyone to care about her opinion and desires. 

She could try to have Ser Robert kill everyone, but even that wouldn't give her the regency back because Ser Robert cannot possibly kill *everyone*.

I liked the idea of the High Septon cutting a deal with Mace - acquitting Margaery in exchange for the regency. That way he could have ensured that the restoration of the Faith Militant is going to be permanent. But that was before ADwD. Now it seems clear the Faith and the sparrows will eventually join Aegon, meaning the High Sparrow couldn't care less about who succeeds Ser Kevan as regent.

She's benched but not beheaded so I wouldn't discount her. She'll never give up and she has proved nifty when it comes to playing the game of thrones, its governing she's crap at - while coups is her forte. Being newly sober and having a giant zombie goon plus the master of Whispers in her pocket she might pull something grand.

 

Why do you think the Faith will join Aegon? I'm totally curious.

[Lord Varys]

On 9/16/2018 at 11:03 AM, The Sleeper said:

Can you provide an example? As far as I can tell the default regent in case of a minor is his closest adult relative. It also would be really awkward is the regent were not in charge of the king/lord. Ned was specifically appointed regent by Robert with the purpose of him being Joffrey's guardian.

Sure, but Ned wasn't any relation of Ned's at all, and again - most of Aegon III's regents were no relations at all.

On 9/16/2018 at 11:03 AM, The Sleeper said:

Aegon III did not have much in the way of adult family members if I recall correctly and it was an attempt to have various factions represented in the government. His was an anomalous case though you could make that argument for every regency case.

It is a precedent for that king of thing - as is Ned.

On 9/16/2018 at 11:03 AM, The Sleeper said:

It is not like anyone had any misconceptions of who was in charge. It could be a workable arrangement for Mace in order to free himself from ceremonial duties and having to deal with Tommen day in, day out. 

The Lord Regent and the Hand essentially seem to have the same duties/rights. The only difference is that the regent is a stand-in for the king whereas the Hand basically can only speak with the King's (or the regent's) Voice when the latter is absent or incapacitated.

If you want to ensure that you truly rule the kingdom during a monarch's minority it makes sense to take both the regency and the Handship so that your voice is the only voice that matters to king and council.

Kevan and Mace essentially share power - Kevan is the regent, but Mace is the one with the army. They have to compromise. Aemond and Cole are regent and Hand, and they split up because they cannot compromise, etc.

On 9/16/2018 at 11:03 AM, The Sleeper said:

There was some "soft murmuring" and in the same declaration Stannis was named traitor and removed from the council for no apparent reason. And Cersei did not take Stannis's position; she stood at the head of the council. I imagine that while there might have been some discontent due to Cersei taking over, Margaery would not necessarily need to take part in day to day governance. 

As regent Margaery would be part of the council by default. After all, she would represent the king there. She would make the final decisions. If she couldn't attend the council session she wouldn't be regent at all.

On 9/16/2018 at 11:03 AM, The Sleeper said:

I don't see what would be ideal about it. The point of various offices is to broaden the power base of the king. It can be problematic if the various persons holding the offices are working at cross purposes, but it can also be problematic if the throne is too insular. In this particular case it isn't much of an issue as Mace holds all the actual power. Ned didn't intend to take up that role for long, if he had remained regent he might have appointed a hand. Or not, Joffrey was much closer to his majority than Tommen is. 

That is not very likely. If Ned had served as regent for Joffrey he would have ruled for the next four years - and that's what Robert wanted. He makes it clear that Ned should be king now, and do a better job at that than he did.

And Ned also made it clear that he really did not like this first among equals nonsense. He is a great lord and he always ruled the North in his own right - in the name of the king, of course. He would not have wanted to share power with powerful colleagues. 

On 9/16/2018 at 11:03 AM, The Sleeper said:

Nope. Just checked. Alyssa was the regent and Rogar the Hand. As for the title of protector of the realm the title has gone to individuals other than the king in the cases of Rogar, Daemon Targaryen, Aemond during Aegon's II convalescence and ironically Cersei. It sounds to me like something analogous to "commander in chief", but they seem to be playing hard and fast with that particular title. There doesn't seem to be any particular rule regarding that title or specific duties. Aegon III is in no way, shape or form relevant. There were multiple factions then. Now it is only Mace and his vassals. 

The Protector is doing the whole keeping the peace and military business. How this title/office relates to the Handship is unclear, but he it is clear that the king/regent are above that guy even if they don't hold that title himself (like Rhaenyra).

On 9/16/2018 at 11:03 AM, The Sleeper said:

Tommen may be a goner, but he is still only nine. It would be weird to have no one nominally in charge for such a long time. And while Mace assuming the regency is an option (though a pointless one, in my opinion) and a likely one, not having even a nominal regent is weird. 

It might be that they postpone the decision until Tommen's entire regime collapses. I don't think they would keep the regency vacant indefinitely. Just, say, until Aegon is defeated - which he never will be.

On 9/16/2018 at 11:03 AM, The Sleeper said:

Cersei's presence is very awkward for the Tyrells. She is still Queen Dowager and the Lady of Casterly Rock. They can't send her home because she could potentially regain power there. If she is found guilty, it would undermine Tommen's legitimacy. They can't keep her and can't get rid off her. They could either keep her locked up in Maegor's holdfast, or force her to become a septa. An assassination would be most handy. Still the Lannister guards at court will turn to her now that Kevan is dead. 

Keep in mind what they did to Cersei. She was publicly humiliated, and the Lannister men are greatly outnumbered by two strong Tyrell hosts. How likely is it that they are willing to die for a queen who publicly confessed to have committed adultery?

The murder of Kevan/Pycelle could give Mace the ideal pretext to keep Cersei under arrest - either as the person behind those murders, or for safety reasons so that the mysterious murderer doesn't kill Cersei, too.

I agree that Cersei cannot be found guilty, but Mace could decide to cancel the trials conducted by the Faith, taken the jurisdiction back to King Tommen and the Crown. That's what he and Tarly wanted to do. Kevan was the one dealing with the High Septon, Tarly wants to cleanse KL of the sparrows - and while this would be the worst thing they could for propaganda reasons it still seems possible that they could crush the Faith Militant the sparrows military.

Overall, my expectation for Cersei is that she will flee the city with the help of Qyburn and Ser Robert, possibly during/after her trial-by-combat (which is likely taking place at the Great Sept). I also assume she'll try to take Tommen with her, and that he might be accidentally die during their escape with Cersei getting away.

On 9/16/2018 at 11:03 AM, The Sleeper said:

While I agree that eventually the High Sparrow will turn to Aegon, eventually the conditions have not been met yet. As things stand the Faith has a vested interest in keeping Tommen's rule as secure as possible as his is the seal on the decrees that allowed for the Faith to pass judgement and rearm. The most likely candidate to screw this up is Mace. 

Sure, but it is not that the fact that the Faith Militant has returned is going to go away just because the king who changed the laws is toppled or dethroned.

A very interesting scenario would be if the High Septon - as the Voice of the Seven on Earth - declares Cersei guilty of all her crimes (and thus Tommen and Myrcella to be bastards) even after Ser Robert wins the trial - because the man is revealed to be the undead monster Gregor Clegane during the trial, and the whole 'trial' nothing but a scam on Cersei's part, blasphemy and attempt to fool the gods.

The idea that you can fight a trial-by-combat with an immortal/undead champion isn't exactly something I think the people of Westeros would agree with.

On 9/16/2018 at 11:03 AM, The Sleeper said:

Giving the High Sparrow any position in government, let alone the regency, would a particularly dumb idea unless one wants the seven kingdoms to become a theocracy. It is also completely out of character for Mace who is itching to put them all to the sword.

The idea was to do that in exchange for Margaery's life and acquittal. One assumes Mace would have preferred that to Margaery remaining with the Faith, but as it turned out Tarly got her out, anyway.

20 hours ago, Sigella said:

She's benched but not beheaded so I wouldn't discount her. She'll never give up and she has proved nifty when it comes to playing the game of thrones, its governing she's crap at - while coups is her forte. Being newly sober and having a giant zombie goon plus the master of Whispers in her pocket she might pull something grand.

See above. In the long run she'll team up and ally with Euron, and then Qyburn and Euron and Ser Robert are going to do marvelous and great things together... Dany's dragons will be nothing against this great triad...

20 hours ago, Sigella said:

Why do you think the Faith will join Aegon? I'm totally curious.

Because it is clear that the sparrow - including their leader, the new High Septon - are looking for a savior. The High Septon does not want to be king, he wants a king who honors the Faith and the gods and who restores peace and prosperity to Westeros (especially to the Riverlands, which are suffering a lot right now). And Aegon can do all that. He is a Targaryen, he is not born of incest, and he is not a bastard born of adultery and fornication (unlike Tommen). More importantly, if the Faith publicly declares Aegon to be Rhaegar's son - a fact revealed to the High Septon by the Seven - then Aegon is going to be in his debt - a thing that is going to make the restoration of the Faith Militant more permanent.

Aegon might marry Arianne, but his true spouse is going to be the Faith. Remember the cheering crowds from Dany's vision. If they show up in real life many of them are likely going to be sparrows and, of course, Kingslanders.

Back in AFfC it has also been clear that the sparrows and their leader are actually enemies of the Lannisters. The High Septon took what he wanted from Cersei and Tommen, but if he had been just in there for a Faith power grab he would, most likely, have not imprisoned two queens. That could come back to haunt both him and the Faith - unless he has a way out. And Aegon is that way out. A way he may have learned about before Aegon came to KL - after all, many people have suggested Varys was behind the way how the High Sparrow came into office.

[Sigella]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Keep in mind what they did to Cersei. She was publicly humiliated, and the Lannister men are greatly outnumbered by two strong Tyrell hosts. How likely is it that they are willing to die for a queen who publicly confessed to have committed adultery?

The murder of Kevan/Pycelle could give Mace the ideal pretext to keep Cersei under arrest - either as the person behind those murders, or for safety reasons so that the mysterious murderer doesn't kill Cersei, too.

I agree that Cersei cannot be found guilty, but Mace could decide to cancel the trials conducted by the Faith, taken the jurisdiction back to King Tommen and the Crown. That's what he and Tarly wanted to do. Kevan was the one dealing with the High Septon, Tarly wants to cleanse KL of the sparrows - and while this would be the worst thing they could for propaganda reasons it still seems possible that they could crush the Faith Militant the sparrows military.

Overall, my expectation for Cersei is that she will flee the city with the help of Qyburn and Ser Robert, possibly during/after her trial-by-combat (which is likely taking place at the Great Sept). I also assume she'll try to take Tommen with her, and that he might be accidentally die during their escape with Cersei getting away.

Sure, but it is not that the fact that the Faith Militant has returned is going to go away just because the king who changed the laws is toppled or dethroned.

A very interesting scenario would be if the High Septon - as the Voice of the Seven on Earth - declares Cersei guilty of all her crimes (and thus Tommen and Myrcella to be bastards) even after Ser Robert wins the trial - because the man is revealed to be the undead monster Gregor Clegane during the trial, and the whole 'trial' nothing but a scam on Cersei's part, blasphemy and attempt to fool the gods.

The idea that you can fight a trial-by-combat with an immortal/undead champion isn't exactly something I think the people of Westeros would agree with.

The idea was to do that in exchange for Margaery's life and acquittal. One assumes Mace would have preferred that to Margaery remaining with the Faith, but as it turned out Tarly got her out, anyway.

See above. In the long run she'll team up and ally with Euron, and then Qyburn and Euron and Ser Robert are going to do marvelous and great things together... Dany's dragons will be nothing against this great triad...

Because it is clear that the sparrow - including their leader, the new High Septon - are looking for a savior. The High Septon does not want to be king, he wants a king who honors the Faith and the gods and who restores peace and prosperity to Westeros (especially to the Riverlands, which are suffering a lot right now). And Aegon can do all that. He is a Targaryen, he is not born of incest, and he is not a bastard born of adultery and fornication (unlike Tommen). More importantly, if the Faith publicly declares Aegon to be Rhaegar's son - a fact revealed to the High Septon by the Seven - then Aegon is going to be in his debt - a thing that is going to make the restoration of the Faith Militant more permanent.

Aegon might marry Arianne, but his true spouse is going to be the Faith. Remember the cheering crowds from Dany's vision. If they show up in real life many of them are likely going to be sparrows and, of course, Kingslanders.

Back in AFfC it has also been clear that the sparrows and their leader are actually enemies of the Lannisters. The High Septon took what he wanted from Cersei and Tommen, but if he had been just in there for a Faith power grab he would, most likely, have not imprisoned two queens. That could come back to haunt both him and the Faith - unless he has a way out. And Aegon is that way out. A way he may have learned about before Aegon came to KL - after all, many people have suggested Varys was behind the way how the High Sparrow came into office.

Good stuff, I think you have valid points on the High Sparrow. Come to think of it, it is tremendously clumsy pissing off Lannisters and Tyrells both without an out. Even armed, the Faith can't hope to survive their wroth and after the trials they won't have any hostages to keep the camps in line.

 

But regarding Cersei I'm not convinced. Remember how easy Varys disposed of Kevan and Pycelle - and Varys wants Cersei to keep misruling to pave the way for Aegon. Suppose Cersei-> Qyburn -> little birds tries something similar towards the Tyrells?

[Angel Eyes]

2 minutes ago, Sigella said:

Good stuff, I think you have valid points on the High Sparrow. Come to think of it, it is tremendously clumsy pissing off Lannisters and Tyrells both without an out. Even armed, the Faith can't hope to survive their wroth and after the trials they won't have any hostages to keep the camps in line.

 

But regarding Cersei I'm not convinced. Remember how easy Varys disposed of Kevan and Pycelle - and Varys wants Cersei to keep misruling to pave the way for Aegon. Suppose Cersei-> Qyburn -> little birds tries something similar towards the Tyrells?

Maybe Varys will have a Tyrell sniped with a crossbow and blame it on Cersei?

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Sigella said:

But regarding Cersei I'm not convinced. Remember how easy Varys disposed of Kevan and Pycelle - and Varys wants Cersei to keep misruling to pave the way for Aegon. Suppose Cersei-> Qyburn -> little birds tries something similar towards the Tyrells?

Varys doesn't want Cersei back in power. Varys wants to stop Kevan from 'undoing all the queen's good work' - meaning Cersei ruining the alliances her father had created. Varys doesn't need Cersei back in power, he needs Tommen's government to fail to work together properly or efficiently. Cersei had fraying the western alliance, and Kevan was trying to stick it back together, and he was having some success at that. He cut a deal with both the High Septon and Mace, and if had lived they may have been able to build a united front against Aegon.

But he was literally the last knot keeping the thing together - now these power blocs won't work together, and both the Tyrells and the Faith might end up joining Aegon. The former with more and the latter with less persuasion.

[Sigella]

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys doesn't want Cersei back in power. Varys wants to stop Kevan from 'undoing all the queen's good work' - meaning Cersei ruining the alliances her father had created. Varys doesn't need Cersei back in power, he needs Tommen's government to fail to work together properly or efficiently. Cersei had fraying the western alliance, and Kevan was trying to stick it back together, and he was having some success at that. He cut a deal with both the High Septon and Mace, and if had lived they may have been able to build a united front against Aegon.

But he was literally the last knot keeping the thing together - now these power blocs won't work together, and both the Tyrells and the Faith might end up joining Aegon. The former with more and the latter with less persuasion.

Isn't Cersei the fastest road to the bottom for Tommen, though?

Wouldn't the Tyrells likely balk at letting the Faith Militant/Warriors Sons joining their new alliance considering their recent history? 

4 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Maybe Varys will have a Tyrell sniped with a crossbow and blame it on Cersei?

 Maybe Varys will disguise himself as Cersei and snipe Mace in full view of the court? 

[Legitimate_Bastard]

2 hours ago, Sigella said:

 Maybe Varys will disguise himself as Cersei and snipe Mace in full view of the court? 

What next? Is Varys a faceless man? LOL

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Sigella said:

Isn't Cersei the fastest road to the bottom for Tommen, though?

Not if she was really in power. She would fight with teeth and claws against Aegon. Not to mention that the entire 'walk of shame' plot would be for nothing if Cersei just ended up back in power.

2 hours ago, Sigella said:

Wouldn't the Tyrells likely balk at letting the Faith Militant/Warriors Sons joining their new alliance considering their recent history?

Oh, I'm not sure the Tyrells will end up in Aegon's camp without first getting a bloody nose. If the Faith ended up being responsible for Margaery's death things might become difficult, but even that might not be that much of a problem if Mace died, too, and Lord Willas declared for Aegon.

But I think chances are very good that Mace will deliver Tommen and KL into Aegon's hands if the army he sends against Aegon is beaten - or ends up joining Aegon.

[Sigella]

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not if she was really in power. She would fight with teeth and claws against Aegon. Not to mention that the entire 'walk of shame' plot would be for nothing if Cersei just ended up back in power.

Oh, I'm not sure the Tyrells will end up in Aegon's camp without first getting a bloody nose. If the Faith ended up being responsible for Margaery's death things might become difficult, but even that might not be that much of a problem if Mace died, too, and Lord Willas declared for Aegon.

But I think chances are very good that Mace will deliver Tommen and KL into Aegon's hands if the army he sends against Aegon is beaten - or ends up joining Aegon.

Cersei would fight teeth and claws and that combined with her less than average empathy will push everyone into Aegons camp quick as spit imo. I see the walk of shame more like a tempering of Cersei, that she will get stronger or break from. And she isn't broken just yet, in the Kevan epilogue she seems more concieted than cowed.

 

The thing about Faith and Tyrells is that for them to join up there would have to happen something that out-weighs the imprisonement and soft torture of Marg. And Cersei is well placed to be the culprit.

[Lord Varys]

18 minutes ago, Sigella said:

Cersei would fight teeth and claws and that combined with her less than average empathy will push everyone into Aegons camp quick as spit imo. I see the walk of shame more like a tempering of Cersei, that she will get stronger or break from. And she isn't broken just yet, in the Kevan epilogue she seems more concieted than cowed.

That certainly might be the case - I just don't think she will be as stupid or as, well, mad to think she stands a chance to survive long in KL - both because of the Tyrells, the Faith, and Aegon. She is afraid that Tyrion is in the walls even before Kevan/Pycelle. Do you think she will think she and Tommen are safe in the castle after that happened?

If she somehow seized power she would rule only a fortnight or a month until Aegon took everything from her again. I think she will do her best to get out of the city as quickly as possible, trying to take Tommen (and Myrcella, if she actually arrives in KL soon) with her.

If George had Cersei remain in KL until Aegon comes it would be very difficult to devise a good way for her to flee. She is not going to die this early in the story.

And she just doesn't have enough strength to fight Mace to a stalemate or to wreak much havoc aside from Ser Robert running amok and killing some people.

18 minutes ago, Sigella said:

The thing about Faith and Tyrells is that for them to join up there would have to happen something that out-weighs the imprisonement and soft torture of Marg. And Cersei is well placed to be the culprit.

Cersei is responsible for that. That's why the Lannisters and Tyrells are really at each other's throat in the Epilogue. The signs are very strong that it is only Kevan's presence that prevents open hostilities - and now he is gone. But if it came to that, then Cersei cannot hope to win or even stand a chance to resist for long. She is greatly outnumbered. All she has are few guardsmen - if she can rely on them - Mace has tens of thousands of men in the city.

If she were to be informed about Kevan before the Tyrells she might be able lock herself inside Maegor's Holdfast, but she could not even try to seize the Red Keep the way she did back when she put down Ned's men. She doesn't control the City Watch - and even if she did that, they are only a couple of thousand men, Mace has tens of thousands.

[Sigella]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That certainly might be the case - I just don't think she will be as stupid or as, well, mad to think she stands a chance to survive long in KL - both because of the Tyrells, the Faith, and Aegon. She is afraid that Tyrion is in the walls even before Kevan/Pycelle. Do you think she will think she and Tommen are safe in the castle after that happened?

If she somehow seized power she would rule only a fortnight or a month until Aegon took everything from her again. I think she will do her best to get out of the city as quickly as possible, trying to take Tommen (and Myrcella, if she actually arrives in KL soon) with her.

If George had Cersei remain in KL until Aegon comes it would be very difficult to devise a good way for her to flee. She is not going to die this early in the story.

And she just doesn't have enough strength to fight Mace to a stalemate or to wreak much havoc aside from Ser Robert running amok and killing some people.

Cersei is responsible for that. That's why the Lannisters and Tyrells are really at each other's throat in the Epilogue. The signs are very strong that it is only Kevan's presence that prevents open hostilities - and now he is gone. But if it came to that, then Cersei cannot hope to win or even stand a chance to resist for long. She is greatly outnumbered. All she has are few guardsmen - if she can rely on them - Mace has tens of thousands of men in the city.

If she were to be informed about Kevan before the Tyrells she might be able lock herself inside Maegor's Holdfast, but she could not even try to seize the Red Keep the way she did back when she put down Ned's men. She doesn't control the City Watch - and even if she did that, they are only a couple of thousand men, Mace has tens of thousands.

See I think that the GC will sell Aegon out to Cersei so I think having them will solidify her rule of Crownlands at least. I have nothing to back that up with, though, its just a notion thats stuck with me.

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, Sigella said:

See I think that the GC will sell Aegon out to Cersei so I think having them will solidify her rule of Crownlands at least. I have nothing to back that up with, though, its just a notion thats stuck with me.

And I've a notion that Moon Boy and Cersei are actually the same person. Not sure if I can back up that one, either ;-).

There is no chance the Golden Company will sell out Aegon. Especially not to Cersei.

[Sigella]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And I've a notion that Moon Boy and Cersei are actually the same person. Not sure if I can back up that one, either ;-).

There is no chance the Golden Company will sell out Aegon. Especially not to Cersei.

Ok, I do have some stuff to rise above Moon Boy I hope:

-All through the books we've been told that sellswords aren't to be trusted, but the only sellsword sellout we've seen is Ben Plumm turning cloak (which didn't make all that much difference in any case) so I think there should be some big payoff to all that.

- Aegon won't last long (introduced late and not very refined in ruling and/or risks of battle)

- GC being a Blackfyre faction doesn't really sit right with them helping a Targ win his throne (even if Aegon is a Blackfyre the company in large won't be aware).

- Some bad vibes within the GC, Homeless Harry being a craven, Lysono Maar creeping people out for example.

 

edit: - If the GC are desperate enough for Westeros to back a Targ it wouldn't be so far fetched to assume that they'd sell him right out if offered lands and titles in Westeros in exchange - it might actually taste sweeter to the GC to get Westeros without having to side with their arch-nemesis.

[Makk]

5 hours ago, Sigella said:

- GC being a Blackfyre faction doesn't really sit right with them helping a Targ win his throne (even if Aegon is a Blackfyre the company in large won't be aware).

- Some bad vibes within the GC, Homeless Harry being a craven, Lysono Maar creeping people out for example.

 

edit: - If the GC are desperate enough for Westeros to back a Targ it wouldn't be so far fetched to assume that they'd sell him right out if offered lands and titles in Westeros in exchange - it might actually taste sweeter to the GC to get Westeros without having to side with their arch-nemesis.

I think most of the leaders are very much aware of it and it is the leaders, with the exception of the weak Homeless Harry, that count.

I think the scene where Aegon convinces the Golden Company to invade Westeros shows that the Golden company see, or at least saw, Daenerys as a means to and end. With the exception of Harry they were very quick, and even happy, to abandon Daenerys and do it themselves. And to me that is a big pointer that many of them know he is really a Blackfyre.

Quote

And then Prince Aegon spoke. "Then put your hopes on me," he said. "Daenerys is Prince Rhaegar's sister, but I am Rhaegar's son. I am the only dragon that you need."
Griff put a black-gloved hand upon Prince Aegon's shoulder. "Spoken boldly," he said, "but think what you are saying."
"I have," the lad insisted. "Why should I go running to my aunt as if I were a beggar? My claim is better than her own. Let her come to me … in Westeros."
Franklyn Flowers laughed. "I like it. Sail west, not east. Leave the little queen to her olives and seat Prince Aegon upon the Iron Throne. The boy has stones, give him that."
The captain-general looked as if someone had slapped his face. "Has the sun curdled your brains, Flowers? We need the girl. We need the marriage. If Daenerys accepts our princeling and takes him for her consort, the Seven Kingdoms will do the same. Without her, the lords will only mock his claim and brand him a fraud and a pretender. And how do you propose to get to Westeros? You heard Lysono. There are no ships to be had."
This man is afraid to fight, Griff realized. How could they have chosen him to take the Blackheart's place? "No ships for Slaver's Bay. Westeros is another matter. The east is closed to us, not the sea. The triarchs would be glad to see the back of us, I do not doubt. They might even help us arrange passage back to the Seven Kingdoms. No city wants an army on its doorstep."
"He's not wrong," said Lysono Maar.
"By now the lion surely has the dragon's scent," said one of the Coles, "but Cersei's attentions will be fixed upon Meereen and this other queen. She knows nothing of our prince. Once we land and raise our banners, many and more will flock to join us."
"Some," allowed Homeless Harry, "not many. Rhaegar's sister has dragons. Rhaegar's son does not. We do not have the strength to take the realm without Daenerys and her army. Her Unsullied."
"The first Aegon took Westeros without eunuchs," said Lysono Maar. "Why shouldn't the sixth Aegon do the same?"
"The plan—"
"Which plan?" said Tristan Rivers. "The fat man's plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.
"I have had enough of Illyrio's plans. Robert Baratheon won the Iron Throne without the benefit of dragons. We can do the same. And if I am wrong and the realm does not rise for us, we can always retreat back across the narrow sea, as Bittersteel once did, and others after him."
Strickland shook his head stubbornly. "The risk—"
"—is not what it was, now that Tywin Lannister is dead. The Seven Kingdoms will never be more ripe for conquest. Another boy king sits the Iron Throne, this one even younger than the last, and rebels are thick upon the ground as autumn leaves."
"Even so," said Strickland, "alone, we cannot hope to—"
Griff had heard enough of the captain-general's cowardice. "We will not be alone. Dorne will join us, must join us. Prince Aegon is Elia's son as well as Rhaegar's."
"A Lannister woman," insisted the captain-general. "The bitch will have the Kingslayer at her side, count on that, and they will have all the wealth of Casterly Rock behind them. And Illyrio says this boy king is betrothed to the Tyrell girl, which means we must face the power of Highgarden as well."
Laswell Peake rapped his knuckles on the table. "Even after a century, some of us still have friends in the Reach. The power of Highgarden may not be what Mace Tyrell imagines."
"Prince Aegon," said Tristan Rivers, "we are your men. Is this your wish, that we sail west instead of east?"
"It is," Aegon replied eagerly. "If my aunt wants Meereen, she's welcome to it. I will claim the Iron Throne by myself, with your swords and your allegiance. Move fast and strike hard, and we can win some easy victories before the Lannisters even know that we have landed. That will bring others to our cause."
Rivers was smiling in approval. Others traded thoughtful looks. Then Peake said, "I would sooner die in Westeros than on the demon road," and Marq Mandrake chuckled and responded, "Me, I'd sooner live, win lands and some great castle," and Franklyn Flowers slapped his sword hilt and said, "So long as I can kill some Fossoways, I'm for it."
 

And if the Golden company do get some early victories, capturing Storms End, crushing Mace Tyrell, and getting some parts of the Reach to switch allegiance, there is no way the common soldiers who do not know they are really following a Blackfyre would switch allegiance to Cersei.

[Three-Fingered Pete]

On ‎9‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 1:33 PM, Legitimate_Bastard said:

What next? Is Varys a faceless man? LOL

Now you've done it! Varys is Jaqen H'ghar. You'll have to be killed now.

[Sigella]

14 hours ago, Makk said:

I think most of the leaders are very much aware of it and it is the leaders, with the exception of the weak Homeless Harry, that count.

I think the scene where Aegon convinces the Golden Company to invade Westeros shows that the Golden company see, or at least saw, Daenerys as a means to and end. With the exception of Harry they were very quick, and even happy, to abandon Daenerys and do it themselves. And to me that is a big pointer that many of them know he is really a Blackfyre.

And if the Golden company do get some early victories, capturing Storms End, crushing Mace Tyrell, and getting some parts of the Reach to switch allegiance, there is no way the common soldiers who do not know they are really following a Blackfyre would switch allegiance to Cersei.

Yeah, I haven't bought into the whole Blackfyre-thing, so that may taint my line of reasoning

Seems to me the Blackfyre's is a D&E-thing and that they aren't a factor in aSoIaF.

[Legitimate_Bastard]

10 hours ago, Trefayne said:

Now you've done it! Varys is Jaqen H'ghar. You'll have to be killed now.

I disagree, Varys is quite clearly the Waif.

[Three-Fingered Pete]

1 hour ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

I disagree, Varys is quite clearly the Waif.

I think he's both! I really think we're on to something here. This would explain all the light speed travel in the show. How else could "Varys" always be everywhere he needs to be so conveniently?

Wait, what are all these little kids doing in my house...

[BlackLightning]

Margaery will likely be the new Regent, one way or another.

When Mace and his vassals leave for the Stormalnds to fight Aegon (yes, that's a when not an if), do you really think he'll leave an opening for Cersei. No. An opening for Cersei might be made available regardless (i.e. Varys) but Margaery will still be there along with a couple thousand Reachman. Maybe Randyll Tarly will be too.

Mace isn't without some low cunning but he's not someone I would regard as shrewd or clever. He'd name Margaery as Regent which - doing so - would piss off Randyll Tarly which would probably lead to him turning his cloak in favor of Aegon.

Still, I'd be less concerned about what the Reachmen are going to do and more concerned about what the Dornishmen inside King's Landing are going to do.