The Stark sucession crisis and Arya the unlikely

[rotting sea cow]

I read that theory sometime ago and it is interesting to consider. It doesn't need to happen to make it interesting or fun. In particular it would require careful timeline planning to make it happen and give the big timeline issues, it is indeed difficult. Let's first consider the Stark succession crisis.

The Stark succession crisis refers to the (hopefully non violent) conflict among the different claimants to Winterfell and their supporters. In my opinion the conflict will be cut short by the fall of the Wall. But let's review it.

At the time of Ned's death the succession was clear. Robb, Bran, Rickon, Sansa and Arya. Jon (as Ned Stark bastard) would be considered only in very exceptional circumstances.

Now, Robb, Bran, Rickon and Arya are believed dead. Sansa married to the enemy. Jon joined the Night Watch so he renounced to any feeble claim he ever had.

However King Robb altered in his last will. Whilst we do not know the exact contents of that will (not even its current location), it is certainly contain at the very least a legitimization for Jon, putting him ahead in the succession list as the eldest brother. The will may also contain other things like orders to preserve the realm, provisions against Sansa Lannister (was she disinherited?), etc, but these are more speculative.

We know however that Bran, Rickon and Arya are not dead and thus have a definite claim to Winterfell. At the same time there seems to be definite plans by Littlefinger to put Sansa in Winterfell. Jon has just been killed. So, the situation is more complicated that Robb ever envisioned.

At the end of ADWD, it is likely that the content of the will is not widely known among the Northern Lords. So, other lords are acting independently for a Stark restoration.  Specifically Manderly. So, let's revise the claims as ordered by Robb's will and the problems for each claimant.

1. Jon: Not a son of Ned Stark. Although I think this will not known for a while, a key personage (Howland Reed) will see that Jon's legitimization creates a big problem ahead. Jon is also sworn to the Night Watch and thus cannot claim lands. We don't know how dead and resurrection change that. Some of the Northern Lords will claim that the will was issued under false premises so it is not valid anymore, whilst at the same time others will prefer to honor it. King Stannis will likely have a say and may prefer Jon over the others.
2. Bran: The true heir of Robb Stark. The Mountain Clans know he is alive, now missing in the vastness beyond the Wall, so currently unavailable. Although he is going to show supernatural powers it may be that the only way to effectively communicate is through ravens or Theon Turncloack. He is also a cripple and has a Tully look.
3. Rickon: He is a child, so there will be need of a long regency. Supported by powerful White Harbor, which means that the Manderlys will become too powerful for the taste of the other Northern Lords. He may be already back (I think not, but there has been enough time) and come with an army of Skagosi mounted in unicorns and White Harbor knights. He also has a Tully look.
4. Sansa: Married to a Lannister. If she marries again, she will be looked even with more suspicion. Backed by an ambitious, sly and upjumped coin counter. Backed by the powerful army of the Vale, the most Andal of the 7 Kingdoms and the strongest followers of the Seven. On the practical side, she may offer the Vale foodstores to the hungry North.
5. Arya: Nobody ever mention Arya in this thing, so here goes my little theory

People have kind of guessed that Arya will return to the Riverlands at some point. Why? There are too many elements of her story that link her there. Nymeria, Gendry, Hot Pie, Sandor, Brienne, TBWB and her mother (or whatever remains of her).

I think that the theory that Arya will be the one who puts LS out of her misery is quite compelling. If this is true, Arya will become strongly involved in The Brotherhood without Banners and she may be wooed to claim Winterfell (by some northmen, for example) if they do not know who rules there. She may be even declared Queen then and there. She will have the support of TBWB, of the remaining northmen in the Riverlands, the Nymeria pack, the Blackfish (eventually) and she will take possession of her late brother crown.

This is a good way to bring some key people north, where they are needed, like Brienne, Sandor, Gendry, Thoros, maybe even Jaime.

She may lay down her claim after meeting her siblings but if the situation is too complicated she may also be compelled to press on.

 

 

 

 

[The Sleeper]

It is not unlikely at all. Arya being potentially crowned has been set up and it has nothing to do with LSH dying. On the contrary, she is the one looking to crown Arya. The BWB know that Arya was at the Riverlands and there is a chance she is alive and free. The orphans at the Inn are the result of the BWB search for Arya. Gendry is at the Inn, because he can identify her. Stoneheart has also recovered Robb's crown. She did not retrieve solely for its value as a keepsake.

Furthermore, Robb's will could well have a provision for Arya to inherit if she was found, at least as a balm for his mother. 

Of course all this is predicated on Arya making contact with the BWB. If she does it is a good bet that she will wear the bronze and iron crown, at least for a time.

Arya's parallels with Egg fall into that as well. As a character he was based on Arya, he roamed the land living among the small folk, he was last in a long line of succession and wound up being king. 

Overall it is a pretty solid theory and a likely outcome. It doesn't necessarily mean, however that she will ever be the only and accepted claimant in the North or that she would take possession of Winterfell. It is not after all the Stark succession crisis, it is the North's succession crisis. The Bolton's and Stannis are still around as well. It can get very messy and not necessarily resolved at series end. 

[The hairy bear]

The problems you find with Rickon (he'd need a regency, and he could be influenced by the Manderlys) are not enough to dismiss the claim of a true-born son. Not to mention that Arya would have similar problems (she'd have to marry, and would be under the influence of her husband and his family) and other ones of her own (murderous instincts, inadequate manners,...)

[rotting sea cow]

1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

The Bolton's and Stannis are still around as well. It can get very messy and not necessarily resolved at series end. 

I think the Boltons are going to be dead by the time of the succession crisis. Yes, indeed, LS may already want to crown Arya knowing that she is alive and somewhere in the Riverlands

1 hour ago, The hairy bear said:

The problems you find with Rickon (he'd need a regency, and he could be influenced by the Manderlys) are not enough to dismiss the claim of a true-born son. Not to mention that Arya would have similar problems (she'd have to marry, and would be under the influence of her husband and his family) and other ones of her own (murderous instincts, inadequate manners,...) 

Oh, no... Don't misunderstand me. No claim can be dismissed here, but all of them pose problems for the northmen.

[Lord Varys]

Don't think there will be such a succession crisis. It will be Rickon or Sansa, or no one. Nobody is going to support the cripple or the bastard or the wolfless girl.

If Rickon returns before Sansa goes north (if she goes north) then he'll be the new Lord of Winterfell, if not then Sansa should succeed due to the support of thousands of men from the Vale against a crippled North.

The idea that the North as such as the strength or the willingness to split up between different Stark pretenders makes no sense in my opinion. They would have to have very insane priorities to do that.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Don't think there will be such a succession crisis. It will be Rickon or Sansa, or no one. Nobody is going to support the cripple or the bastard or the wolfless girl.

Wolfless girl? If there's a wolfless girl in the story, it's Sansa, not Arya. 

[Lord Varys]

Arya doesn't have her wolf with her. Who is going to believe her that she is a Stark?

[Angel Eyes]

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Don't think there will be such a succession crisis. It will be Rickon or Sansa, or no one. Nobody is going to support the cripple or the bastard or the wolfless girl.

If Rickon returns before Sansa goes north (if she goes north) then he'll be the new Lord of Winterfell, if not then Sansa should succeed due to the support of thousands of men from the Vale against a crippled North.

The idea that the North as such as the strength or the willingness to split up between different Stark pretenders makes no sense in my opinion. They would have to have very insane priorities to do that.

Rickon, Sansa, or No One? 

 

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Arya doesn't have her wolf with her. Who is going to believe her that she is a Stark?

She looks more like a Stark than Jeyne Poole does. Starks don't have brown eyes.

[rotting sea cow]

20 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Arya doesn't have her wolf with her. Who is going to believe her that she is a Stark?

She will have her wolf (according to this little theory, see above) and she won't come alone but with others who will vouch for her.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

 

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Arya doesn't have her wolf with her. Who is going to believe her that she is a Stark?

The difference between Arya and Rickon is that Arya knows exactly who she is. She remembers Winterfell, she remembers her parents and her siblings, she remembers the people of Winterfell, she remembers everything that happened. And she looks like a Stark.

Rickon was a 4 year old boy when he was forced from his home. How much a child of that age remembers is up for debate and how many questions can he be asked that will not end with "I don't know" or a shrug. In his case the wolf is more important to prove his claim than it is in Arya's case. 

[kissdbyfire]

There's also the weird and IMO conspicuous omission of Arya's name when Robb presents the document/will:

“One more matter. Lord Balon has left chaos in his wake, we hope. I would not do the same. Yet I have no son as yet, my brothers Bran and Rickon are dead, and my sister is wed to a Lannister. I’ve thought long and hard about who might follow me. I command you now as my true and loyal lords to fix your seals to this document as witnesses to my decision.”

Maybe Robb wrote Arya in on the will... Even if he believed her dead, he may have added something to appease Cat. 

 

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

She will have her wolf (according to this little theory, see above) and she won't come alone but with others who will vouch for her.

I'd still say that both Rickon and Sansa Stark are much more likely to enter the game long before Arya - if she does that at all. Unlike Arya they are surrounded by people who know who they are and might, presumably, be willing or convinced to help them.

Arya would have to start from scratch.

[zandru]

I really like the general trend of this theory, and not merely because I like Arya and think she's more closely grounded to the people of the North than any of her trueborn sibs.

4 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Not to mention that Arya would have similar problems (she'd have to marry, and would be under the influence of her husband and his family) and other ones of her own (murderous instincts, inadequate manners,...)

I dispute these. Who's going to make her marry? She has no older parents to set up an arranged alliance marriage. And "manners"? Come on. Arya has been undergoing extensive training in Braavos (and beyond, it looks like), which includes a knowledge of the manners of the great and powerful, down to the smallfolk. She's spent time as a mummer, for the gods' sake! She can put on courtly "manners" any time she wants. "Murderous instincts"? Arya has never killed unless there seemed to be a strong need for it, or in battle, or some deserving person on her list.

If Arya were to return to the North, she would have less difficulty than "Alayne Baelish Stone" or "Mrs. Tyrion Lannister" in establishing who she is. She has the Stark look. She understands the land and people of the North. She communicates well with people on all levels, from the lordly to the smallest of the smallfolk. This in contrast to "Alayne", whose snobbery seems to have persisted even in her "bastardy".

Arya could act as a war leader, much like Joan of Arc and Boudica. Potentially, she'd have an entire vast pack of wolves, led by her direwolf Nymeria. This would go over well with the Northmen, particularly the tribes. Arya is smart, and has learned how to detect lies (and to lie); how to weigh the accuracy of information; she has a strong sense of right and wrong (and feels bad when she violates it) and has striven to help the helpless; she's strong, athletic, and trained in the killing arts. These would be particularly helpful in establishing her "rights" to leadership.

I'm all for Arya's return to Westeros and her leadership in re-establishing the Stark presence in the North. And possibly beyond. The potential is definitely there.

[zandru]

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Unlike Arya [Sansa and Rickon] are surrounded by people who know who they are and might, presumably, be willing or convinced to help them.

To be more accurate, Sansa and Rickon are surrounded by people who are willing and ready to use them. Rickon is a small child of 6 or 7, 8  tops. Sansa is still too credulous and is really isolated and at the mercy of Littlefinger at this point. (Or whatever "true knight" with sufficient handsomeness that happens to ride in and offer his aid.)

Sure, Arya would have a tough job - but we've seen she's a natural, instinctive leader. Boys much older and stronger than she have followed her willingly. Now Arya is older and has had much more training, as noted earlier.

[Lord Varys]

No lord or knight in Westeros is going to follow the command of an eleven-year-old girl. That's not going to happen. Common boys and men might do that, if she looks the part. They are accustomed to obey their betters.

But lords and knights are not accustomed to obeying girls, highborn or lowborn. And whatever Arya did - nobody is going to believe her murder stories. And if they did, they would most likely want to see her dead.

[SirArthur]

6 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

However King Robb altered in his last will. Whilst we do not know the exact contents of that will (not even its current location), it is certainly contain at the very least a legitimization for Jon, putting him ahead in the succession list as the eldest brother. The will may also contain other things like orders to preserve the realm, provisions against Sansa Lannister (was she disinherited?), etc, but these are more speculative.

There is no conflict. The problem is that we talk about different things. Robb's Will was about King Robb declaring for a successor. This has to be accepted in all parts of his realm, including the Riverlands, so Jon is not the answer. Arya is the logical choice as a half Tully and not Lannister. However the situation was not clear, as the reports about Rickon and Bran were unclear and Arya is missing. However,

Bran has a title, he is prince of Winterfell, meaning he is the crown prince. The Will is only neccessary if Bran is dead. And I expect this as a clause in the document. 

Now Jon and his claim for Winterfell is a different thing. 

[SirArthur]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

No lord or knight in Westeros is going to follow the command of an eleven-year-old girl. That's not going to happen. Common boys and men might do that, if she looks the part. They are accustomed to obey their betters.

Good thing Stannis did not make his summer child daughter his heir ... uuups. 

[zandru]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

No lord or knight in Westeros

Well, there are very few "knights" in the North, which is what we're talking about.

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And whatever Arya did - nobody is going to believe her murder stories.

I'm not sure what "murder stories" you're talking about. Everybody knows about the Red Wedding. That would be enough. And Arya has the political astuteness to understand this.

[zandru]

3 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

This has to be accepted in all parts of [King Robb's] realm, including the Riverlands,

The Riverlands were never part of "King Robb's realm." He was clearly and explicitly proclaimed the "King in the North". Not the Seven Kingdoms, not Westeros. Whether his will, if found, will be honored depends wholly upon the North.

It's my assumption that, since Robb was talking to the captain of the Myraham just before writing his will and having multiple copies witnessed and signed by his bannermen, that he sent a copy with the captain to deliver to the Citadel in Oldtown for archival. Our man onsite (Samwell) could potentially come across it. Or possibly the will might be uncovered by Arya's friend, now going by "Pate."

[Hugorfonics]

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

No lord or knight in Westeros is going to follow the command of an eleven-year-old girl. That's not going to happen. Common boys and men might do that, if she looks the part. They are accustomed to obey their betters.

But lords and knights are not accustomed to obeying girls, highborn or lowborn. And whatever Arya did - nobody is going to believe her murder stories. And if they did, they would most likely want to see her dead.

Actuall command? Probably not, but a figurehead, why not? Myrcella would have commanded lords and knights, according to Tyrion and Arianna. 

 

The thing about Arya being Lady of Winterfell is she is. Tommen decreed, her siblings have no where near the claim that Arya has.