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The Stark sucession crisis and Arya the unlikely


rotting sea cow

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2 minutes ago, zandru said:

The Riverlands were never part of "King Robb's realm." He was clearly and explicitly proclaimed the "King in the North". Not the Seven Kingdoms, not Westeros. Whether his will, if found, will be honored depends wholly upon the North.

He was called king of the trident. His coronation was at Riverrun while sitting in Hosters chair. The Riverlands were definitely part of "Robbs realm"

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3 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

He was called king of the trident

Thanks! I forgot that. Nonetheless, it's the North where Arya might find the most support. If any Riverlands lords came down on her side, it might be her uncle Blackfish - assuming he knew she existed and decided to "recognize" her. Or ... Lady Stoneheart.

We know Catelyn never really cared for Arya, in spite of the mandatory parental "love".  Yet there's the fact she and the Brotherhood without Beric are searching for her. But will Stoneheart remember Catelyn's generalized disappointment and dismissal of Arya, or will she recognize a fellow vengeance seeker? We know Stoneheart was in the act of hanging her sworn sword Brienne, without giving her a chance to explain or defend herself. Would Stoneheart do something similarly violent to her unsatisfactory daughter? (The one who hasn't bothered to rescue all-important Sansa?)

I'm really hoping to get some additional information from the next book... Speculation is very interesting, but it's largely based on personal desires and  compelling need to spin increasingly outrageous wackadoo theories. (Present company excepted, of course.)

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19 minutes ago, zandru said:

The Riverlands were never part of "King Robb's realm." He was clearly and explicitly proclaimed the "King in the North". Not the Seven Kingdoms, not Westeros. Whether his will, if found, will be honored depends wholly upon the North.

"Lastly, King Joffrey and the Queen Regent must renounce all claims to dominion over the north. Henceforth we are no part of their realm, but a free and independent kingdom, as of old. Our domain shall include all the Stark lands north of the Neck, and in addition the lands watered by the River Trident and its vassal streams, bounded by the Golden Tooth to the west and the Mountains of the Moon in the east."

A Clash of Kings - Catelyn I

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To the OP

 

Robb's will is powerless to determine who gets winterfell.  Are you suggesting the north should rebel again?  That could be very bad for them when the white walkers come down for an extended vacation.  Arya is not suited to lead.  She's a lone wolf.  She doesn't want peace.  She wants revenge.  That cannot possibly lead to anything good for the north. 

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4 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

Nymeria is in the riverlands.  

My apologies. I was referring to human support, but should have been more explicit.

4 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

There is the long face.

Yes, Arya has the traditional "Stark Look", not to mention being the virtual recarnation of Lyanna Stark, who has not been forgotten. Even Roose Bolton fondly remembers how Lyanna and his son Domeric used to ride together. Before Ramsey (that bastard) killed him.

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6 minutes ago, zandru said:

My apologies. I was referring to human support, but should have been more explicit.

Yes, Arya has the traditional "Stark Look", not to mention being the virtual recarnation of Lyanna Stark, who has not been forgotten. Even Roose Bolton fondly remembers how Lyanna and his son Domeric used to ride together. Before Ramsey (that bastard) killed him.

The Stark long face is a unique look.  Almost as unique as the Targaryens look.  Easily identifiable.  It's not proof but almost as good as an ID card. 

But I want to be clear.  Zandru, Roose Bolton is not going to step aside for Arya.  He has the legal right on his side.  Are you suggesting the north should rebel again?

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@zandru

I fear that you are mixing up what would you like to happen with what is realistic within the medieval-like setting that George has designed.

In Westeros, it is incredibly rare to have a ruling lady. This is even more difficult in wartime, when people are looking for the leadership of a military-type leader that is adult, strong, and obviously male.

48 minutes ago, zandru said:

Arya could act as a war leader, much like Joan of Arc and Boudica.

Excellent examples. Joan of Arc was burnt alive. Boudica had to kill herself to avoid capture. It goes to show how difficult things were for a woman who tried to lead in an old patriarchal society.

48 minutes ago, zandru said:

Potentially, she'd have an entire vast pack of wolves, led by her direwolf Nymeria. This would go over well with the Northmen, particularly the tribes. Arya is smart, and has learned how to detect lies (and to lie); how to weigh the accuracy of information; she has a strong sense of right and wrong (and feels bad when she violates it) and has striven to help the helpless; she's strong, athletic, and trained in the killing arts. These would be particularly helpful in establishing her "rights" to leadership.

I'm all for Arya's return to Westeros and her leadership in re-establishing the Stark presence in the North. And possibly beyond. The potential is definitely there.

As I was saying, those are your wishes. For what is worth, Sansa could come to the North with a thousand of kinghts of the Vale and demonstrate her abilities of seduction and plotting. Or Rickon could come with an Skagoosi army and show how fierce he is. Or perhaps the Seven incarnate could come down to Westeros and proclaim Harwin the true and legitimate lord of the North.

We can all construct "potential" scenarios where our favorite character comes up a Lord of Winterfell. But the fact remains that it's extremely unlikely that the North accepts a woman as their leader. Or someone who is eleven. Or someone who has living elder siblings. Or someone who has been missing for some years and received training by a cult of murderers.

48 minutes ago, zandru said:

I dispute these. Who's going to make her marry? She has no older parents to set up an arranged alliance marriage.

Again, if she wants to gain support of all the North, she should expect to follow the social conventions. Young girls are expected to marry, period.

 

Even Targaryens, who had dragons (dragon > direwolf) and ruled by the right of conquest, had to make concessions and adapt to the culture they ruled. They abandoned polygamous marriages, their religion, their language, their succession customs,...

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8 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

@zandru

I fear that you are mixing up what would you like to happen with what is realistic within the medieval-like setting that George has designed.

In Westeros, it is incredibly rare to have a ruling lady. This is even more difficult in wartime, when people are looking for the leadership of a military-type leader that is adult, strong, and obviously male.

I don't know. The Nymeria links are strong with Arya and when my theory is true, Arya will replace fake Arya, deal with Ramsay in a way that will be a horror for Ramsay and just pretend for the rest of her life she is Jeyne Poole, posing as Arya.

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48 minutes ago, zandru said:

Thanks! I forgot that. Nonetheless, it's the North where Arya might find the most support. If any Riverlands lords came down on her side, it might be her uncle Blackfish - assuming he knew she existed and decided to "recognize" her. Or ... Lady Stoneheart.

We know Catelyn never really cared for Arya, in spite of the mandatory parental "love".  Yet there's the fact she and the Brotherhood without Beric are searching for her. But will Stoneheart remember Catelyn's generalized disappointment and dismissal of Arya, or will she recognize a fellow vengeance seeker? We know Stoneheart was in the act of hanging her sworn sword Brienne, without giving her a chance to explain or defend herself. Would Stoneheart do something similarly violent to her unsatisfactory daughter? (The one who hasn't bothered to rescue all-important Sansa?)

I'm really hoping to get some additional information from the next book... Speculation is very interesting, but it's largely based on personal desires and  compelling need to spin increasingly outrageous wackadoo theories. (Present company excepted, of course.)

Np. I wouldnt put much hope in a blackfish Arya alliance, theyve never even met.

I disagree that Cat didnt care much for Arya. Bran was the apple in her eye, Sansa a mini-me, Robb was her first and Rickons a baby, but Arya was still her kid and Cat speaks of her like that.

Stoneheart did give Brienne a chance, hence shes still alive. Im positive Stoneheart wont harm her children, as positive that shes clueless on Sansas whereabouts.

Speculation based on personal desires despite them being outrageous wackadoo theories, i can get behind that :), see King Ramsay below

23 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The Stark long face is a unique look.  Almost as unique as the Targaryens look.  Easily identifiable.  It's not proof but almost as good as an ID card. 

But I want to be clear.  Zandru, Roose Bolton is not going to step aside for Arya.  He has the legal right on his side.  Are you suggesting the north should rebel again?

( Im not sure its as unique as Targaryen, and anyways how much good will that do Young Griff?)

Roose will step aside for nada. Lady Dustin remarked on his ambition for King in the North. The prince will be sure to follow shortly then (all hail king Rams) which will leave Arya as queen.

Without being queen bolton she remains lady of winterfell. The marriage, despite being a complete farce, seems legally binding to me. Asha and Sansa have a more shaky marriage contract then Arya. 

Wyman says he needs Rickon because Bolton has Arya, he doesn't. (f)Arya has escaped and can garnish support while staying legally loyal to the IT, (r)Arya can do all that also, and Braavosi stuff too.

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7 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

I think that the theory that Arya will be the one who puts LS out of her misery is quite compelling. If this is true, Arya will become strongly involved in The Brotherhood without Banners and she may be wooed to claim Winterfell (by some northmen, for example) if they do not know who rules there. She may be even declared Queen then and there. She will have the support of TBWB, of the remaining northmen in the Riverlands, the Nymeria pack, the Blackfish (eventually) and she will take possession of her late brother crown.

Why would she involve herself with exactly the type of men she has grown disdain for throughout her travels? Why would 'they' consider pressing a claim on Winterfell? Which northmen? Why do the remnants of the BWB care about any of this? If they don't know who rules the North, isn't the assumption Boltons and Freys? If so isn't that suicide? If not, why would she go against her siblings? Why would they invade the North? How would they invade the North? When has any of this been foreshadowed apart from Ned telling her she will be a queen someday? Why would Arya accept becoming a queen? Is Nymerias pack a political faction? 

I'm sorry, I broke down a little bit there. I'm sure there are good, rational answers to all of this.

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10 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

I fear that you are mixing up what would you like to happen with what is realistic ...

Well, of course this is "what I would like to happen"! I've never represented otherwise. Your concerns are certainly valid. On the other hand, it is not "business as usual" in Westeros anymore. Winter has arrived. The North is torn by violence and bloodshed. Many of the great Northern houses have had their leadership slaughtered (thanks, Walder) and are trying to stumble onward under younger heirs or assorted relatives. The Boltons are squatting, like poisonous toads, in the Stark fortress of Winterfell. Stannis is laying siege and losing men at record speed. Many of the old rules no longer apply, and a lot of those "rules" were based on southron manners, anyway.

Arya has more of a chance than you represent.

19 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

Excellent examples. Joan of Arc was burnt alive. Boudica had to kill herself to avoid capture.

Well, I didn't say she wouldn't get her hair mussed  ;-) (apologies to George C Scott in Dr Strangelove).

39 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Zandru, Roose Bolton is not going to step aside for Arya

I don't think I ever suggested that. Nor would I.

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I do not think there will be a succession crisis.  A "crisis" would only occur if all the Stark kids come back and make claims to Winterfell.  Sansa and Arya would defer to Bran's claim, cripple or not, Rickon is the youngest, so by all laws Bran's claim comes first.  Jon is the only wild card and I think the wording of Robb's will would impact how it is interpreted.  If he indicated that based on the fact that Bran and Rickon are dead he appoints Jon as his heir, then Bran and Rickon's existence would negate that appointment.  If it is silent on why he is appointing Jon, then it can theoretically trump the natural order of succession. 

But the real reason there will not be a crisis is because Ned raised these kids, and I can't see Jon trying to usurp his siblings.

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I don't think Arya is being set-up for leadership. She's an assassin. We could postulate all the different ways that Arya could attempt to crown herself, or be crowned. But there isn't any real reason to do so. 

I do not doubt that the Northmen in general will find Arya agreeable. Especially if she arrives with her Wolf. But this means ignoring the fact that it's Sansa who's learning 'the Game' and it's Jon who's learning how to lead from the front. 

As other posters have pointed out, Arya's more invested in the Riverlands; Not in some hazy, childhood memory, but instead, the place that has all of the characters relevant to her and her arc. Nymeria, LS, Hot Pie, Gendry, The BwB, Sandor. Everything that make's Arya who she is, is in the RL. She has business all over Westeros. But the RL is the most relevant to her for tWoW. 

If Arya does go North, it will be to see Jon IMO. 

I will add. There is something tempting about the idea. Especially during winter when a lot of the men will be dead. It would make it easier for her (a woman) to rule the rowdy fighters if they're all dead. 

 

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11 minutes ago, Chris Mormont said:

But the real reason there will not be a crisis is because Ned raised these kids, and I can't see Jon trying to usurp his siblings.

Hear, hear! It's too bad Lady Catelyn didn't want to believe this.

3 minutes ago, TheThreeEyedCow said:

I don't think Arya is being set-up for leadership. She's an assassin.

Don't knock Arya's leadership abilities and skills. Just because she's added "assassin" skills to her quiver, that doesn't negate everything else we know about her.

5 minutes ago, TheThreeEyedCow said:

But this means ignoring the fact that it's Sansa who's learning 'the Game'

Is she? I think Littlefinger is grooming her to be a more useful tool. But we really won't know for ... awhile. (sigh!) Besides, Arya knows that it's NOT "a game." It's life or death for nearly everyone outside of the overprivileged lords and ladies. Arya identifies closely with the people who do the work, the people who suffer when the nobles are playing their "game of thrones". We know from the 20th century that woman-headed terrorist groups are more formidable than those made up of young men. That's because, for women, it's serious, not just an exercise in testosterone display.

 

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45 minutes ago, Chris Mormont said:

This is speculation, there is no mention of this motive in the text.

 

The BwB questioned Merret Frey before hanging him about the Hound and a ten year old child he had with him before hanging him. That was after Stoneheart's had been resurrected.

Next time we see the BwB they have been gathering orphans for quite some time with Gendry, the person they have beside Cat who can more easily identify Arya should he come across her.

Then we have Stoneheart's playing with Robb's crown. 

I don't think it is a great leap in logic. 

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I’m not so fond of the histories, so when I was reading the story with the Dance of the Dragons that I can never remember the name of, my mind wandered. There are parallels for all or almost all (it’s been a long time since I’ve read it) of the Starks kids and it really points to the set up of precedents for a Stark succession cluster. And succession problems are a thing in this series.

I think Arya has the best claim at the moment. We had strong Arya parallel Asha and her proxy marriage happening along side the fArya marriage and a very strong case can be made that real Arya is the current Lady of Winterfell as Lady Bolton with Jeyne Poole as the stand-in. When real Arya escaped the Boltons, there was loads of symbolism and parallels to Jeyne Poole as fArya and real Arya Bolton. Plot-wise, there was no need to consider Arya in Robb’s will. This is what throws her into the mix.

The trouble is that I don’t see how her Riverlands/aliases/FM arc transition into any political role without a screeching halt and a jarring 180. GRRM could maybe come up with something, but as I see it right now, a political role doesn’t make sense with her arc thus far and it would be bad writing to just drop it like a hot potato and change it. At this point, I think it’s just there to make things complicated and create divisions with the supporters which GRRM seems to enjoy.

Some here will disagree, but I don’t see being a “badass” as a qualification for being a good leader. More often than not, badasses are actually tragic figures and too out of control to be effective (I’m looking at you Brandon, Ned, Robb, and Jon who got into trouble for being bold). As such, Rickon and Arya have significant problems here. It’s a variation of Cersei telling Joff that a strong king acts boldly and we know how that’s working out for them. Robert was also bold, but not a great leader. Same for Dany who is certainly bold and has just come to realization that she’s a conqueror, not a ruler. There’s a pattern here… Better to be smart than bold (bold implying reckless) and Arya and Rickon are the two Starks with the least political experience on top of their young ages and Arya's being a girl. I don’t see this coming about, and if it does, it won’t go well based on the other bold and badass but not exactly smart decisions that various leaders have made in this series. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

I think Arya has the best claim at the moment. We had strong Arya parallel Asha and her proxy marriage happening along side the fArya marriage and a very strong case can be made that real Arya is the current Lady of Winterfell as Lady Bolton with Jeyne Poole as the stand-in.

Wow! I hadn't noticed that. It's an intriguing possibility, particularly if groom Ramsey and father in law Roose are dead, and can't testify that the woman Ramsey married was NOT "the real Arya."

11 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

The trouble is that I don’t see how her Riverlands/aliases/FM arc transition into any political role without a screeching halt and a jarring 180.

Makes sense. But we've never seen Arya longing to return to the Riverlands or wishing to see any of those other characters again. She wants to reunite with Jon at the Wall, and to go home to Winterfell. I think she wants this more than immediate vengeance, much less seeing Hot Pie's flour-dusted chubby face again. She's also never been to Riverrun and couldn't pick her Tully relatives out of a line-up. (And vice versa.) As for the Hound, forget it. She's thought of him just twice that we've seen, and never longingly. So that might not be a problem.

14 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

Better to be smart than bold (bold implying reckless) and Arya and Rickon are the two Starks with the least political experience on top of their young ages and Arya's being a girl.

I'm with you on Rickon's youth and inexperience, but Arya is being trained in politics, information gathering and assessment, effectively working with (and just plain "working", as in manipulating) people. Plus, even though Arya can be the badass, that is not the entirety of her character. We've often see her brood over whether to take violent action or do something smarter, and smart generally wins. Don't sell the girl short!

About the girl thing: that is less of a problem in the North, what with the Mormonts, the hill tribes, the Free Folk, and the massive die-off of men in general during the recent wars. I believe that North is where Arya will be heading, because of Jon and because of Winterfell. Sure, Nymeria is currently in the Riverlands. But now Arya realizes what her "wolf dreams" have been, and she may figure out how to summon Nymeria, instead of having to go searching around for her.

Mind you, all this is just possibility, and arguments against these events are quite credible, too.

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