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Looking back it seems like Ned was in pretty bad shape after his time in the black cells. There are many mentions of his leg:

 

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Ned pushed himself up higher, wincing as his leg trembled with pain. - Ned X

 

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Quiet, woman," Robert snapped. He brought Ned a cup of wine. "Does the leg still pain you?"

"Some," Ned said. His head was swimming, but it would not do to admit to weakness in front of the queen. - Ned X

 

 

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His leg was beginning to pain him sorely. It was hard to keep his temper. - Ned X

 

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His leg throbbed, and he felt as helpless as a child. - Ned X

 

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It was, as Robert had warned him, a hellishly uncomfortable chair, and never more so than now, with his shattered leg throbbing more sharply every minute.  - Ned X

 

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Slowly Ned struggled to his feet, pushing himself up from the throne with the strength of his arms, his shattered leg screaming inside its cast. He did his best to ignore the pain; it was no moment to let them see his weakness.  - Ned X

 
many many more....
 
Finally, 
 
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The thought of Jon filled Ned with a sense of shame, and a sorrow too deep for words. If only he could see the boy again, sit and talk with him … pain shot through his broken leg, beneath the filthy grey plaster of his cast. He winced, his fingers opening and closing helplessly. - Ned XV

So my question is, had Joffrey not pulled the ultimate prick move and had Illyn Payne behead Ned, and had he instead allowed him to take the black and go to the wall, would Ned have even survived. 

The man is in the throes of fever dreams and he has been sitting in his own excrement, I can only imagine how bad the infection must be at that stage and how far it has spread up his leg toward his torso. Add the journey to the wall, by sea or land it is a LONG journey. Plus, would the Lannisters have even treated his wound or just hoped he would die from the infection on the way up?

What are your thoughts folks?

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1 hour ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

So my question is, had Joffrey not pulled the ultimate prick move and had Illyn Payne behead Ned, and had he instead allowed him to take the black and go to the wall, would Ned have even survived. 

The man is in the throes of fever dreams and he has been sitting in his own excrement, I can only imagine how bad the infection must be at that stage and how far it has spread up his leg toward his torso. Add the journey to the wall, by sea or land it is a LONG journey. Plus, would the Lannisters have even treated his wound or just hoped he would die from the infection on the way up?

What are your thoughts folks?

Place yourself in Joffreys situation. Joffrey just heard that Ned wanted to usurp the throne for his self and later that Ned want to put him and his family in jail. I would have killed Ned too. Only it is not smart, because a living Ned as Hostage in the red keep would be better. Sending him to the wall is no option, beacuse he would have been in Winterfell soon. So Joffrey did the 2nd best thing by killing him! It would have been war and Ned was in a very good position than with Stannis, Hoster and maybe even Lisa on his side. With the Dornish and the Ironborn neutral and the Tyrells not directly on the lannisters side, it would have been ludacriss to let Ned raise a big army against the Lannisters. But still a hostage is most more valuable; Ned in Prison and Sansa Married to Joffrey. I think you are right about the Leg it could have killed him the journey.

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17 minutes ago, Seaserpent said:

Place yourself in Joffreys situation. Joffrey just heard that Ned wanted to usurp the throne for his self and later that Ned want to put him and his family in jail. I would have killed Ned too. Only it is not smart, because a living Ned as Hostage in the red keep would be better. Sending him to the wall is no option, beacuse he would have been in Winterfell soon. So Joffrey did the 2nd best thing by killing him! It would have been war and Ned was in a very good position than with Stannis, Hoster and maybe even Lisa on his side. With the Dornish and the Ironborn neutral and the Tyrells not directly on the lannisters side, it would have been ludacriss to let Ned raise a big army against the Lannisters. But still a hostage is most more valuable; Ned in Prison and Sansa Married to Joffrey. I think you are right about the Leg it could have killed him the journey.

You make a fair point - although Joff's decision did shock Cersei. I feel like Ned would have held to his word and actually joined the NW, leaving Robb as Lord of Winterfell. I suppose that was not a risk Joff could take, but I feel like that is not the reason he had Ned killed. I think he did it solely for spite.

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1 hour ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

You make a fair point - although Joff's decision did shock Cersei. I feel like Ned would have held to his word and actually joined the NW, leaving Robb as Lord of Winterfell. I suppose that was not a risk Joff could take, but I feel like that is not the reason he had Ned killed. I think he did it solely for spite.

Yes joffrey shocked Cersei, because it could let to war and i think Cersei wanted a finish and not a beginning of fighting or war. But Joffrey dont know better that Ned is a Rebel and a big traittor, so giving him a clean dead he thinks is very good of him. Maybe he thinks that even the Starks are ok with this mercy and it would not let to war. 

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4 hours ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

What are your thoughts folks?

I doubt the Lanns would release Ned unless and until Robb bent the knee, disbanded his army and returned north. As long as the north is in rebellion, sending Ned to the Wall would be a huge risk.

This is why I don't think Ned's leg was infected, or at least did not appear to be so at the time. The Lanns might not do anything for his pain, and would even remove the leg if it turned septic, but they absolutely must keep him alive as a hedge against Robb.

So, yes, he probably would survive a trip to the Wall, but that is not going to happen until the north settles down.

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On 9/19/2018 at 7:57 AM, Seaserpent said:

Place yourself in Joffreys situation. Joffrey just heard that Ned wanted to usurp the throne for his self and later that Ned want to put him and his family in jail. I would have killed Ned too. Only it is not smart, because a living Ned as Hostage in the red keep would be better. Sending him to the wall is no option, beacuse he would have been in Winterfell soon. So Joffrey did the 2nd best thing by killing him! It would have been war and Ned was in a very good position than with Stannis, Hoster and maybe even Lisa on his side. With the Dornish and the Ironborn neutral and the Tyrells not directly on the lannisters side, it would have been ludacriss to let Ned raise a big army against the Lannisters. But still a hostage is most more valuable; Ned in Prison and Sansa Married to Joffrey. I think you are right about the Leg it could have killed him the journey.

Joffrey was a fool.  There was no reason to execute Ned.   Ned has powerful allies and friends.  He's well respected.    You don't rule a fuedal kingdom by tyrannizing your nobles.  Those are the guys you need to enforce your will, raise your armies, and protect the realm.  But I don't think keeping him hostage would have worked.

The problem is that it didn't matter.  The war of 5 kings had already started by the time Joffrey killed Eddard.  The Lannisters had invaded the Riverlands with an army, and the North came south to defend their allies.  Renly was already calling forming his own army, Stannis was holed up on his rock.  

Anyway, killing Eddard gained Joffrey nothing but personal satisfaction.  It brought him no allies.  It brought him no power.  It brought him no respect.  It gave Joffrey NOTHING except enemies.  Holding Ned might have given him something later.  Releasing Ned might have given him something right then.  But killing him was a net negative.

 

I've always been kind of stumped on Tywin's reasoning for his riverlands invasion though.  He basically declared war on the Riverlands faction, which could have easily led to him fighting the Riverlands, The North, the Vale, AND the Stormlands if things had gone the way one would expect.  Sure, after the fact Tywin looks brilliant, and his motivation "because they have my son" kinda makes sense, although the riverlands didn't have anything to do with the kidnapping so why attack them?  But how did he know Lysa wouldn't launch the vale to her father's defense?  How did he know that Renly wouldn't do the smart play and hit him from the south at the same time?  Maybe he could figure Renly for a fool, but I don't see it.  Tywin's actions just seem completly unwise, but it worked out I guess.

Had Tywin not invaded the Riverlands, he could have been ready to engage Highgarden and the Stormlands.  The Riverlands, the Vale, and the North could have been kept completly out of the war.  Once Ned was arrested he'd be a hostage to keep them from getting involved.  The Riverlands would have no serious motivation to contest the succession, they get nothing out of it.  Neither do the Vale.  Its highly possible they could have been convinced to support Joffrey as the rightful King even.  Renly and Stannis should always have been considered the real threats by Tywin.  Renly because his alliance with Highgarden gave him a near unstoppable army.  Stannis because he was Stannis.  

Smarter politics could have kept the riverlands, the north, the vale, and even the moronic iron islanders out of the succession war entirely.

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42 minutes ago, argonak said:

Joffrey was a fool.  There was no reason to execute Ned.   Ned has powerful allies and friends.  He's well respected.    You don't rule a fuedal kingdom by tyrannizing your nobles.  Those are the guys you need to enforce your will, raise your armies, and protect the realm.  But I don't think keeping him hostage would have worked.

The problem is that it didn't matter.  The war of 5 kings had already started by the time Joffrey killed Eddard.  The Lannisters had invaded the Riverlands with an army, and the North came south to defend their allies.  Renly was already calling forming his own army, Stannis was holed up on his rock.  

Anyway, killing Eddard gained Joffrey nothing but personal satisfaction.  It brought him no allies.  It brought him no power.  It brought him no respect.  It gave Joffrey NOTHING except enemies.  Holding Ned might have given him something later.  Releasing Ned might have given him something right then.  But killing him was a net negative.

 

I've always been kind of stumped on Tywin's reasoning for his riverlands invasion though.  He basically declared war on the Riverlands faction, which could have easily led to him fighting the Riverlands, The North, the Vale, AND the Stormlands if things had gone the way one would expect.  Sure, after the fact Tywin looks brilliant, and his motivation "because they have my son" kinda makes sense, although the riverlands didn't have anything to do with the kidnapping so why attack them?  But how did he know Lysa wouldn't launch the vale to her father's defense?  How did he know that Renly wouldn't do the smart play and hit him from the south at the same time?  Maybe he could figure Renly for a fool, but I don't see it.  Tywin's actions just seem completly unwise, but it worked out I guess.

Had Tywin not invaded the Riverlands, he could have been ready to engage Highgarden and the Stormlands.  The Riverlands, the Vale, and the North could have been kept completly out of the war.  Once Ned was arrested he'd be a hostage to keep them from getting involved.  The Riverlands would have no serious motivation to contest the succession, they get nothing out of it.  Neither do the Vale.  Its highly possible they could have been convinced to support Joffrey as the rightful King even.  Renly and Stannis should always have been considered the real threats by Tywin.  Renly because his alliance with Highgarden gave him a near unstoppable army.  Stannis because he was Stannis.  

Smarter politics could have kept the riverlands, the north, the vale, and even the moronic iron islanders out of the succession war entirely.

Joffrey was very angry with Ned who always had him killed a an imposter. So i think it was not smart, a hostage is the best choice, but freeing Ned and also killing him was not. You said the North would have been out of the war, thats not completly true, because Stannis has heard the same thing about Joffrey being a bastard from Jon Arryn, he even went to Gendry and also heard it later from Ned. So it looked like Stannis and Ned allready has raisen the banners against Joffrey and the Lannisters. Only diffrence is with Ned in prison the north would maybe not join Stannis. So its very difficult to forsee what would have happend. If there was word that Ned died of infection. Rob, Stannis, Lysa and Hoster could have entered the war. It is a lot of speculation, thats why this topic is a big turning point in the books.

What you see about the riverlands is totaly true it was a very strange move from Tywin and could have Tyrion killed and what if Hoster, Ned and Lysa turned against him it would have be a chaos. The So Tywin got more than lucky that the Vale, North and Riverlands didnt come for casterly rock that day allready. Than he has more luck by all what happened next. What Tywinn did was raising all the big houses agianst him and maybe even Dorne would have joined in as a revenge. I really dont understand Tywinn??

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Another oddity is that even when Tywin almost emptied WL by taking almost 40 thousand men to Riverlands and so leaving very rich lands and major city for easy target for Ironborn. Those IB rather invade much poorer North.

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57 minutes ago, Loose Bolt said:

Another oddity is that even when Tywin almost emptied WL by taking almost 40 thousand men to Riverlands and so leaving very rich lands and major city for easy target for Ironborn. Those IB rather invade much poorer North.

Yes this is even more odd if u look into the history of iron born this would the perfect oppertunity the take lannisport. Though i think it was said that damion lannister had quit an army to defend the rock. But it still makes no sense maybe payback from balon on the starks?!

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Ned's leg condition can be the main argument for the infamous "Ned is alive" theory.

As ridiculous as it sounds at first, since Ned death had so many witnesses- there is always the possibility of a faceless man wearing Ned's face and pretending to be Ned during his public confession. Maybe Syrio Forel? - adding Ned to the list of former hands secretly rescued by Varys (Jon Connington, Tyrion).

If there is a faceless man, then his leg will not be broken and he will only pretend as if he is injured.

Ned was using a cast on his leg to hold the bones in place so that the body can heal itself naturally.

During the execution, in Aria's POV, we learn that the cast is already rotten:

"the cast over his broken leg was grey and rotten"

Meaning- the cast was exposed to moisture and damaged, it can no longer hold the bones in place. But Ned still wears it- he is not understanding this or maybe the cast is only for show?

Ned's leg is still broken and in the cells he is still in pain. During the confession he is supported between two of the gold cloaks.

Although Varys promised him "bread and cheese and the milk of the poppy for your pain" if he promise him to publicly confess, Arya's description is:

"he was thinner than Arya had ever seen him, his long face drawn with pain"

One meal will not bring his weight back and he eventually didn't get or refused the milk of the puppy, or maybe his face was drawn because he was wearing a face?

All can be interpreted both ways, but eventually after all those constant reports for the bad condition of his leg- we finally hear Sansa's POV:

"her father's legs ... that was what she remembered, his legs, the way they'd jerked when Ser Ilyn ... when the sword ..."

Jerked? as in a quick, sharp, sudden movement?! Can a broken leg capable of such a movement even if it is an involuntary movement?

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I think it could go either way. Should he receive proper help from a maester, he might lose the leg, but live. But there'a always a chance that he'd die anyway.

 

1 hour ago, Myles said:

there is always the possibility of a faceless man wearing Ned's face and pretending to be Ned during his public confession

Why would a faceless man willingly die to save someone from death when they're supposed to be killing people?

 

1 hour ago, Myles said:

But Ned still wears it- he is not understanding this or maybe the cast is only for show?

He doesn't have the tools or the strength to take it off. And taking it off may not be the best solution - that would just expose his leg even more to the unsanitary conditions he's being held in. Hard to say which is worse, keeping it on or taking it off.

 

1 hour ago, Myles said:

Jerked? as in a quick, sharp, sudden movement?! Can a broken leg capable of such a movement even if it is an involuntary movement?

Broken legs move just fine. It might be difficult moving it voluntarily due to pain, but involuntarily it'll move just like the unbroken leg.
There might be problems moving it if other tissues that are actually responsible for moving the leg are damaged rather badly, I guess, but it doesn't seem to be the case with Ned.

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Yeah, this is George, it can always be interpreted both ways.

When Sansa looks at her father's head: "It did not look like Lord Eddard...", but she didn't recognize the others as well, all dipped in tar.

When Catelyn received his bones: "Bones, Catelyn thought. This is not Ned, this is not the man I loved, the father of my children." - but it can be her denial, and who can recognize a man by his bones anyway, even if its a husband.

Ned confessing to the faith of the seven: "Let the High Septon and Baelor the Blessed bear witness to what I say" - can be his own way to make it somehow false confession.

If a faceless man pretended to be Ned- maybe Ned refused to confess, maybe the faceless man expected to be sent to the wall.

I think the main reasoning against this theory is the fact we didn't hear from the living Ned for so long.

 

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1 hour ago, Myles said:

If a faceless man pretended to be Ned- maybe Ned refused to confess, maybe the faceless man expected to be sent to the wall.

There are easier ways to get to the Wall and easier places to take over Ned's body than being stuck in separate locked sells. All they had to do is join Yoren's party as regular people and then swap on the way.

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21 hours ago, Myles said:

As ridiculous as it sounds at first, since Ned death had so many witnesses- there is always the possibility of a faceless man wearing Ned's face and pretending to be Ned during his public confession.

No, this simply would not work - FMs wear the faces of people who are already dead - remember Arya's experiences when she wore her own first face?

If someone was pulling a glamour like Mel did with RattleMance, then WHY do it at the point that gets you killed? Absolutely no sense to it whatsoever.

I think in this instance, it clearly was Ned who made his confession (yes, to the Seven, and wearing his House colours reversed because he knew - and wanted to show - his confession was a lie), and Ned really is dead.

 

As to Ned's leg - I don't recall any reference to Ned smelling it, only feeling the pain and suffering a fever, so maybe not incurably infected. I think he could have survived well enough to get to the Wall, given proper care - which I guess he should have been given once he had 'confessed'.

 

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On 9/19/2018 at 6:40 AM, Legitimate_Bastard said:

Looking back it seems like Ned was in pretty bad shape after his time in the black cells. There are many mentions of his leg:

So my question is, had Joffrey not pulled the ultimate prick move and had Illyn Payne behead Ned, and had he instead allowed him to take the black and go to the wall, would Ned have even survived. 

The man is in the throes of fever dreams and he has been sitting in his own excrement, I can only imagine how bad the infection must be at that stage and how far it has spread up his leg toward his torso. Add the journey to the wall, by sea or land it is a LONG journey. Plus, would the Lannisters have even treated his wound or just hoped he would die from the infection on the way up?

What are your thoughts folks?

It's possible that Ned might die from his broken leg,  If he received a compound fracture (meaning that the bone broke the skin) his hopes of healing the leg would be pretty slim in an era with no antibiotics.  I can't lay my hands on my copy of aGoT right now so I can't check the description of the wound.  If Ned's fracture is not compound then his chances of recovery would be greatly improved because there wouldn't be a point of entry for nasty bacteria to penetrate the wound and spread throughout his system.  Pycell tended to his wound and would have set the bone properly, so his chances of recovery were probably pretty good no matter how filthy the conditions were in the prison cell.  I suspect that Ned's leg would have healed.  You have suggested that he might die of the wound, but there is also the possibility of the leg being amputated. 

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12 minutes ago, White Ravens said:

It's possible that Ned might die from his broken leg,  If he received a compound fracture (meaning that the bone broke the skin) his hopes of healing the leg would be pretty slim in an era with no antibiotics.  I can't lay my hands on my copy of aGoT right now so I can't check the description of the wound.  If Ned's fracture is not compound then his chances of recovery would be greatly improved because there wouldn't be a point of entry for nasty bacteria to penetrate the wound and spread throughout his system.  Pycell tended to his wound and would have set the bone properly, so his chances of recovery were probably pretty good no matter how filthy the conditions were in the prison cell.  I suspect that Ned's leg would have healed.  You have suggested that he might die of the wound, but there is also the possibility of the leg being amputated. 

 

The wound is described as Ned being able to see splintered bone through the skin of his calf, so I'm surprised that the leg wasn't taken off to begin with in that medical climate. However, if it broke clean and they were able to reinsert it and set it, then he might recover enough to walk with a limp. His condition after being in the cell was not conducive to good healing in any case and a secondary infection might have set in. I really don't think the Lannisters would have let him get near the north for fear of a rescue attempt, so to me a discussion about whether Ned would make it to the Wall alive is moot.

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On 11/13/2018 at 1:34 PM, Trefayne said:

 

The wound is described as Ned being able to see splintered bone through the skin of his calf, so I'm surprised that the leg wasn't taken off to begin with in that medical climate. However, if it broke clean and they were able to reinsert it and set it, then he might recover enough to walk with a limp. His condition after being in the cell was not conducive to good healing in any case and a secondary infection might have set in. I really don't think the Lannisters would have let him get near the north for fear of a rescue attempt, so to me a discussion about whether Ned would make it to the Wall alive is moot.

See, I really felt like Cersei would  have let Ned live. Little Joff just screwed it up.

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5 hours ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

See, I really felt like Cersei would  have let Ned live. Little Joff just screwed it up.

 

Let Ned live? Yes. Give up their leverage by letting him out of their custody? No.

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19 minutes ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

They still had Sansa...

 

:rofl:

Thanks, I needed a good laugh today.

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