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Looking back it seems like Ned was in pretty bad shape after his time in the black cells. There are many mentions of his leg:

 

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Ned pushed himself up higher, wincing as his leg trembled with pain. - Ned X

 

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Quiet, woman," Robert snapped. He brought Ned a cup of wine. "Does the leg still pain you?"

"Some," Ned said. His head was swimming, but it would not do to admit to weakness in front of the queen. - Ned X

 

 

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His leg was beginning to pain him sorely. It was hard to keep his temper. - Ned X

 

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His leg throbbed, and he felt as helpless as a child. - Ned X

 

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It was, as Robert had warned him, a hellishly uncomfortable chair, and never more so than now, with his shattered leg throbbing more sharply every minute.  - Ned X

 

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Slowly Ned struggled to his feet, pushing himself up from the throne with the strength of his arms, his shattered leg screaming inside its cast. He did his best to ignore the pain; it was no moment to let them see his weakness.  - Ned X

 
many many more....
 
Finally, 
 
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The thought of Jon filled Ned with a sense of shame, and a sorrow too deep for words. If only he could see the boy again, sit and talk with him … pain shot through his broken leg, beneath the filthy grey plaster of his cast. He winced, his fingers opening and closing helplessly. - Ned XV

So my question is, had Joffrey not pulled the ultimate prick move and had Illyn Payne behead Ned, and had he instead allowed him to take the black and go to the wall, would Ned have even survived. 

The man is in the throes of fever dreams and he has been sitting in his own excrement, I can only imagine how bad the infection must be at that stage and how far it has spread up his leg toward his torso. Add the journey to the wall, by sea or land it is a LONG journey. Plus, would the Lannisters have even treated his wound or just hoped he would die from the infection on the way up?

What are your thoughts folks?

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1 hour ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

So my question is, had Joffrey not pulled the ultimate prick move and had Illyn Payne behead Ned, and had he instead allowed him to take the black and go to the wall, would Ned have even survived. 

The man is in the throes of fever dreams and he has been sitting in his own excrement, I can only imagine how bad the infection must be at that stage and how far it has spread up his leg toward his torso. Add the journey to the wall, by sea or land it is a LONG journey. Plus, would the Lannisters have even treated his wound or just hoped he would die from the infection on the way up?

What are your thoughts folks?

Place yourself in Joffreys situation. Joffrey just heard that Ned wanted to usurp the throne for his self and later that Ned want to put him and his family in jail. I would have killed Ned too. Only it is not smart, because a living Ned as Hostage in the red keep would be better. Sending him to the wall is no option, beacuse he would have been in Winterfell soon. So Joffrey did the 2nd best thing by killing him! It would have been war and Ned was in a very good position than with Stannis, Hoster and maybe even Lisa on his side. With the Dornish and the Ironborn neutral and the Tyrells not directly on the lannisters side, it would have been ludacriss to let Ned raise a big army against the Lannisters. But still a hostage is most more valuable; Ned in Prison and Sansa Married to Joffrey. I think you are right about the Leg it could have killed him the journey.

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17 minutes ago, Seaserpent said:

Place yourself in Joffreys situation. Joffrey just heard that Ned wanted to usurp the throne for his self and later that Ned want to put him and his family in jail. I would have killed Ned too. Only it is not smart, because a living Ned as Hostage in the red keep would be better. Sending him to the wall is no option, beacuse he would have been in Winterfell soon. So Joffrey did the 2nd best thing by killing him! It would have been war and Ned was in a very good position than with Stannis, Hoster and maybe even Lisa on his side. With the Dornish and the Ironborn neutral and the Tyrells not directly on the lannisters side, it would have been ludacriss to let Ned raise a big army against the Lannisters. But still a hostage is most more valuable; Ned in Prison and Sansa Married to Joffrey. I think you are right about the Leg it could have killed him the journey.

You make a fair point - although Joff's decision did shock Cersei. I feel like Ned would have held to his word and actually joined the NW, leaving Robb as Lord of Winterfell. I suppose that was not a risk Joff could take, but I feel like that is not the reason he had Ned killed. I think he did it solely for spite.

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1 hour ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

You make a fair point - although Joff's decision did shock Cersei. I feel like Ned would have held to his word and actually joined the NW, leaving Robb as Lord of Winterfell. I suppose that was not a risk Joff could take, but I feel like that is not the reason he had Ned killed. I think he did it solely for spite.

Yes joffrey shocked Cersei, because it could let to war and i think Cersei wanted a finish and not a beginning of fighting or war. But Joffrey dont know better that Ned is a Rebel and a big traittor, so giving him a clean dead he thinks is very good of him. Maybe he thinks that even the Starks are ok with this mercy and it would not let to war. 

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4 hours ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

What are your thoughts folks?

I doubt the Lanns would release Ned unless and until Robb bent the knee, disbanded his army and returned north. As long as the north is in rebellion, sending Ned to the Wall would be a huge risk.

This is why I don't think Ned's leg was infected, or at least did not appear to be so at the time. The Lanns might not do anything for his pain, and would even remove the leg if it turned septic, but they absolutely must keep him alive as a hedge against Robb.

So, yes, he probably would survive a trip to the Wall, but that is not going to happen until the north settles down.

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On 9/19/2018 at 7:57 AM, Seaserpent said:

Place yourself in Joffreys situation. Joffrey just heard that Ned wanted to usurp the throne for his self and later that Ned want to put him and his family in jail. I would have killed Ned too. Only it is not smart, because a living Ned as Hostage in the red keep would be better. Sending him to the wall is no option, beacuse he would have been in Winterfell soon. So Joffrey did the 2nd best thing by killing him! It would have been war and Ned was in a very good position than with Stannis, Hoster and maybe even Lisa on his side. With the Dornish and the Ironborn neutral and the Tyrells not directly on the lannisters side, it would have been ludacriss to let Ned raise a big army against the Lannisters. But still a hostage is most more valuable; Ned in Prison and Sansa Married to Joffrey. I think you are right about the Leg it could have killed him the journey.

Joffrey was a fool.  There was no reason to execute Ned.   Ned has powerful allies and friends.  He's well respected.    You don't rule a fuedal kingdom by tyrannizing your nobles.  Those are the guys you need to enforce your will, raise your armies, and protect the realm.  But I don't think keeping him hostage would have worked.

The problem is that it didn't matter.  The war of 5 kings had already started by the time Joffrey killed Eddard.  The Lannisters had invaded the Riverlands with an army, and the North came south to defend their allies.  Renly was already calling forming his own army, Stannis was holed up on his rock.  

Anyway, killing Eddard gained Joffrey nothing but personal satisfaction.  It brought him no allies.  It brought him no power.  It brought him no respect.  It gave Joffrey NOTHING except enemies.  Holding Ned might have given him something later.  Releasing Ned might have given him something right then.  But killing him was a net negative.

 

I've always been kind of stumped on Tywin's reasoning for his riverlands invasion though.  He basically declared war on the Riverlands faction, which could have easily led to him fighting the Riverlands, The North, the Vale, AND the Stormlands if things had gone the way one would expect.  Sure, after the fact Tywin looks brilliant, and his motivation "because they have my son" kinda makes sense, although the riverlands didn't have anything to do with the kidnapping so why attack them?  But how did he know Lysa wouldn't launch the vale to her father's defense?  How did he know that Renly wouldn't do the smart play and hit him from the south at the same time?  Maybe he could figure Renly for a fool, but I don't see it.  Tywin's actions just seem completly unwise, but it worked out I guess.

Had Tywin not invaded the Riverlands, he could have been ready to engage Highgarden and the Stormlands.  The Riverlands, the Vale, and the North could have been kept completly out of the war.  Once Ned was arrested he'd be a hostage to keep them from getting involved.  The Riverlands would have no serious motivation to contest the succession, they get nothing out of it.  Neither do the Vale.  Its highly possible they could have been convinced to support Joffrey as the rightful King even.  Renly and Stannis should always have been considered the real threats by Tywin.  Renly because his alliance with Highgarden gave him a near unstoppable army.  Stannis because he was Stannis.  

Smarter politics could have kept the riverlands, the north, the vale, and even the moronic iron islanders out of the succession war entirely.

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42 minutes ago, argonak said:

Joffrey was a fool.  There was no reason to execute Ned.   Ned has powerful allies and friends.  He's well respected.    You don't rule a fuedal kingdom by tyrannizing your nobles.  Those are the guys you need to enforce your will, raise your armies, and protect the realm.  But I don't think keeping him hostage would have worked.

The problem is that it didn't matter.  The war of 5 kings had already started by the time Joffrey killed Eddard.  The Lannisters had invaded the Riverlands with an army, and the North came south to defend their allies.  Renly was already calling forming his own army, Stannis was holed up on his rock.  

Anyway, killing Eddard gained Joffrey nothing but personal satisfaction.  It brought him no allies.  It brought him no power.  It brought him no respect.  It gave Joffrey NOTHING except enemies.  Holding Ned might have given him something later.  Releasing Ned might have given him something right then.  But killing him was a net negative.

 

I've always been kind of stumped on Tywin's reasoning for his riverlands invasion though.  He basically declared war on the Riverlands faction, which could have easily led to him fighting the Riverlands, The North, the Vale, AND the Stormlands if things had gone the way one would expect.  Sure, after the fact Tywin looks brilliant, and his motivation "because they have my son" kinda makes sense, although the riverlands didn't have anything to do with the kidnapping so why attack them?  But how did he know Lysa wouldn't launch the vale to her father's defense?  How did he know that Renly wouldn't do the smart play and hit him from the south at the same time?  Maybe he could figure Renly for a fool, but I don't see it.  Tywin's actions just seem completly unwise, but it worked out I guess.

Had Tywin not invaded the Riverlands, he could have been ready to engage Highgarden and the Stormlands.  The Riverlands, the Vale, and the North could have been kept completly out of the war.  Once Ned was arrested he'd be a hostage to keep them from getting involved.  The Riverlands would have no serious motivation to contest the succession, they get nothing out of it.  Neither do the Vale.  Its highly possible they could have been convinced to support Joffrey as the rightful King even.  Renly and Stannis should always have been considered the real threats by Tywin.  Renly because his alliance with Highgarden gave him a near unstoppable army.  Stannis because he was Stannis.  

Smarter politics could have kept the riverlands, the north, the vale, and even the moronic iron islanders out of the succession war entirely.

Joffrey was very angry with Ned who always had him killed a an imposter. So i think it was not smart, a hostage is the best choice, but freeing Ned and also killing him was not. You said the North would have been out of the war, thats not completly true, because Stannis has heard the same thing about Joffrey being a bastard from Jon Arryn, he even went to Gendry and also heard it later from Ned. So it looked like Stannis and Ned allready has raisen the banners against Joffrey and the Lannisters. Only diffrence is with Ned in prison the north would maybe not join Stannis. So its very difficult to forsee what would have happend. If there was word that Ned died of infection. Rob, Stannis, Lysa and Hoster could have entered the war. It is a lot of speculation, thats why this topic is a big turning point in the books.

What you see about the riverlands is totaly true it was a very strange move from Tywin and could have Tyrion killed and what if Hoster, Ned and Lysa turned against him it would have be a chaos. The So Tywin got more than lucky that the Vale, North and Riverlands didnt come for casterly rock that day allready. Than he has more luck by all what happened next. What Tywinn did was raising all the big houses agianst him and maybe even Dorne would have joined in as a revenge. I really dont understand Tywinn??

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Another oddity is that even when Tywin almost emptied WL by taking almost 40 thousand men to Riverlands and so leaving very rich lands and major city for easy target for Ironborn. Those IB rather invade much poorer North.

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57 minutes ago, Loose Bolt said:

Another oddity is that even when Tywin almost emptied WL by taking almost 40 thousand men to Riverlands and so leaving very rich lands and major city for easy target for Ironborn. Those IB rather invade much poorer North.

Yes this is even more odd if u look into the history of iron born this would the perfect oppertunity the take lannisport. Though i think it was said that damion lannister had quit an army to defend the rock. But it still makes no sense maybe payback from balon on the starks?!

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