honorable men Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 TWOIAF Quote Across the Vale, a handful of First Men still held out against the Andals; the Redforts of Redfort, the Hunters of Longbow Hall, the Belmores of Strongsong, and the Coldwaters of Coldwater Burn chief amongst them. These seem to correspond pretty well to the Lords Declarant from AFFC: Quote “Bronze Yohn mistrusts me.” Petyr pushed a log aside. “He means to come in force. Symond Templeton will join him, do not doubt it. And Lady Waynwood too, I fear.” “And Lord Belmore, Young Lord Hunter, Horton Redfort. They will bring Strong Sam Stone, the Tolletts, the Shetts, the Coldwaters, some Corbrays.” So let's review House-by-House: House Royce: Of First Men origin, competed with the Andal Arryns for kingship of the Vale. The senior branch (Bronze Yohn) supports the Lords Declarant, while the junior branch (Nestor) supports Littlefinger in return for a seat of his own (the Gates of the Moon). House Templeton: Probably Andals. Originally support the Lords Declarant, then switches to backing Littlefinger. House Waynwood: Andals by inference. Originally support the Lords Declarant, then are bought off by Littlefinger. House Belmore: First Men. Originally support the Lords Declarant, then are bought off by Littlefinger. House Hunter: First Men. House Redfort: First Men. House Tollett: Of Andal origin. House Shett: Original First Men rulers of Gulltown. The Andals who took it from them (House Grafton) support Littlefinger, while the other Andal House of Gulltown (the Gulltown Arryns) presumably do as well. House Coldwater: First Men. House Corbray: Andal, although half the House (Lord Lyonel) is pro-Littlefinger, while the other half (Ser Lyn) seems to be a double agent for him. Conclusion: Out of 7 First Men Houses, 6 support the Lords Declarant. Out of 8 Andal Houses, 3 support the Lords Declarant. House origin could absolutely have bearing on old loyalties- and old rivalries. These debts and grudges can run very deep, as we've seen elsewhere. Even if it's not an openly racial/ethic issue,there's an interesting correlation that may help us understand where the political lines are drawn. When Push comes to Shove. It'll be interesting how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bernie Mac Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 At this point they are all old Houses, with around a thousand years (at least) of intermarriage. It seems highly improbable that there is some Andal First man divide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euron III Greyjoy Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 Didn't the Andals come around thousands of years ago? I wouldn't say any of them are new Houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisdaw Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 Yes you are completely correct. How it will play out is Harry will die. Yohn will blame LF (though LF will not have meant for it to happen). This will blow up the year leeway LF wormed his way to at the Vale meeting. Yohn will demand custody of SR immediately. LF will refuse. Yohn will come to get him. And the Vale will split down new and old lines, old blood Yohn and new blood Nestor. Yohn's forces will breach the gate (via the goat track signalled in TWOIAF). Desperate LF will end up retreating up the Eyrie with Sansa and SR, and there will be a stalemate. Then a dragon will arrive. The above gives purpose for why; The Lyn stuff. There is this First Men and Andal divide and historic conflicts surrounding it in the Vale. The Vale is such a strong defensive position, Eyrie and Gates of the Moon, and why that has been gone over in the series (Cat's/Tyrion's/Sansa's descriptions). Nestor will be outnumbered and there will be a bloody siege. LF will think he can just sit tight. Why there is that goat track. The story of Ronnel, Sharra and Visenya. Foreshadowing for Tyrion arriving at the Vale on Viserion, with Robert and Sansa trapped up top. The winged knight. Why the Eyrie is so difficult to climb in winter, thought impossible. LF will brave it because he has no choice. He'll make it probably with a few defenders, because of Mya's ability, and probably he won't let her back down. Or the animals. So there won't be anyone able to get up, though many will probably try and fail. For some foreshadowing and wording like Tyrion's taking the Vale talk, and this most ominous one, Quote The Eyrie boasted a sept, but no septon; a godswood, but no heart tree. No prayers are answered here, she often thought, though some days she felt so lonely she had to try. Only the wind answered her, sighing endlessly around the seven slim white towers and rattling the Moon Door every time it gusted. It will be even worse in winter, she knew. In winter this will be a cold white prison. A cold white prison it will be for them, and Sansa will be praying for salvation. Then will come Tyrion on his dragon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giant Ice Spider Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 6 hours ago, chrisdaw said: Yes you are completely correct. How it will play out is Harry will die. Yohn will blame LF (though LF will not have meant for it to happen). This will blow up the year leeway LF wormed his way to at the Vale meeting. Yohn will demand custody of SR immediately. LF will refuse. Yohn will come to get him. And the Vale will split down new and old lines, old blood Yohn and new blood Nestor. Yohn's forces will breach the gate (via the goat track signalled in TWOIAF). Desperate LF will end up retreating up the Eyrie with Sansa and SR, and there will be a stalemate. Then a dragon will arrive. The above gives purpose for why; The Lyn stuff. There is this First Men and Andal divide and historic conflicts surrounding it in the Vale. The Vale is such a strong defensive position, Eyrie and Gates of the Moon, and why that has been gone over in the series (Cat's/Tyrion's/Sansa's descriptions). Nestor will be outnumbered and there will be a bloody siege. LF will think he can just sit tight. Why there is that goat track. The story of Ronnel, Sharra and Visenya. Foreshadowing for Tyrion arriving at the Vale on Viserion, with Robert and Sansa trapped up top. The winged knight. Why the Eyrie is so difficult to climb in winter, thought impossible. LF will brave it because he has no choice. He'll make it probably with a few defenders, because of Mya's ability, and probably he won't let her back down. Or the animals. So there won't be anyone able to get up, though many will probably try and fail. For some foreshadowing and wording like Tyrion's taking the Vale talk, and this most ominous one, A cold white prison it will be for them, and Sansa will be praying for salvation. Then will come Tyrion on his dragon. What would they eat, besides the two oxen? Even if they take every mule, they can't bring much food with them. Also bear in mind some mules would need to take firewood/coals. And yet even with that, we were told in AFFC that the Eyrie would be too cold to live in. That sounds like a disastrous plan on LF's part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisdaw Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 2 hours ago, Giant Ice Spider said: What would they eat, besides the two oxen? Even if they take every mule, they can't bring much food with them. Also bear in mind some mules would need to take firewood/coals. And yet even with that, we were told in AFFC that the Eyrie would be too cold to live in. That sounds like a disastrous plan on LF's part. Everything and anything they can manage and find. They will be cold and they will be starving and they will be desperate, but the alternative would be for Littlefinger to lose absolutely everything he has accumulated in his life, and he'll fight that to the very cold hungry bitter end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angel Eyes Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 I'm not sure that this will happen, since the First Men and the Andal cultures are pretty well-meshed in the Vale. For example, House Royce, which is proud of its First Men descent, follows the Seven; all three of Bronze Yohn's sons are knights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springwatch Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 On 9/21/2018 at 2:33 AM, chrisdaw said: How it will play out is Harry will die. Yohn will blame LF (though LF will not have meant for it to happen). This will blow up the year leeway LF wormed his way to at the Vale meeting. Yohn will demand custody of SR immediately. LF will refuse. Yohn will come to get him. And the Vale will split down new and old lines, old blood Yohn and new blood Nestor. Yohn's forces will breach the gate (via the goat track signalled in TWOIAF). Desperate LF will end up retreating up the Eyrie with Sansa and SR, and there will be a stalemate. Then a dragon will arrive. I could see this. On 9/21/2018 at 2:33 AM, chrisdaw said: The story of Ronnel, Sharra and Visenya. Foreshadowing for Tyrion arriving at the Vale on Viserion, with Robert and Sansa trapped up top. Did not know this, I'll have to look it up. On 9/21/2018 at 2:33 AM, chrisdaw said: Why the Eyrie is so difficult to climb in winter, thought impossible. LF will brave it because he has no choice. He'll make it probably with a few defenders, because of Mya's ability, and probably he won't let her back down. Or the animals. So there won't be anyone able to get up, though many will probably try and fail. LF, Alayne and SR are none of them that athletic. An alternative way round the problem would be the dragon arrives first (Chekhov's oxen), and instead of taking them out of the cold white prison, Tyrion puts them in. For their own safety maybe. I'm not even sure he takes them out again, in which case Sansa will have to rely on the preserving powers of ice - something like the vision of Jon with his skin growing harder and colder. Seems unlikely that LF and SR will have the same plot armour. ETA (Would love a Sleeping Beauty period for our storybook princess...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisdaw Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 4 hours ago, Springwatch said: LF, Alayne and SR are none of them that athletic. They just have to sit on top of the mule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springwatch Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 10 hours ago, chrisdaw said: They just have to sit on top of the mule. Mules are worse mountaineers than humans; if the path to the Eyrie has been officially closed, then the mules for a certainty won't make it. I suppose an avalanche might clear the route? But even then, mules are slow; the group would be easily overtaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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