Robert Arryn is LF's bastard, obviously. Some secrets you don't share even to close family.

[Peach King]

10 hours ago, Walda said:

Littlefinger did that about seven years earlier, after he used his work as a wine factor in the Vale to build a strong trade alliance with the Redwynes, who are the naval might of the Tyrells, and family, in a family that values family. On his promotion to Master of Coin, he was the person they knew in King's Landing and had the power to influence the Baratheon lords, that Mace would see, as he did, the value of a closer relationship between the Tyrells and the Storm's End Baratheons, and would appreciate the services of the friend who suggested his youngest son when Renly turned sixteen and realised he needed a squire. 

The hint that Petyr Baelish came up with the Margaery plan is the exquisite rose-gold locket with the miniature painted in the vivid Myrish style.  I doubt Margaery at age twelve or thirteen had travelled to Myr to have her portrait taken, more likely an artist trained in Myr had come to Highgarden to paint the lovely Margaery. The portrait could then make its way, via her brother, Renly's former squire and by then a knight in King's Landing to joust at the tourney for Joffrey's name day , to the pocket of King Renly, who would keep it because the smiling doe eyes and the soft brown hair made her look so very like his one true love. Petyr has a thing for exquisite gifts from Myr - there is the Myrish glass that Maester Luwin uses for his shadow-maps, the repeating crossbow he gave Joffrey.

And who gave Renly the notion that Margaery looked anything like Lyanna? Renly clearly had not thought it politic to show the miniature to Robert, or Cersei, or Jaime. I'm guessing someone from Jon Arryn's household, someone who had only the vaguest recollection of her, or some habitual liar that wanted Renly to believe they were dead ringers. Lord Renly was not a simpleton- he checked when he could.

Of course Mace and Renly both gained from this plot. You will notice that both Jon and Lysa Arryn gained by Petyr Baelish's service in the Vale and both Lord Tywin and the Realm had prospered while he was Robert's master of coin, that Tyrion and Cersei did not lose the battle when they sent Lord Baelish to broker an alliance with the Tyrells. Petyr is very good at creating the impression that he is only brokering the deals that other people bid him to.

But he is also rather good at working out what people will want before they do, and having everything set up ready for them at the exact minute they work it out for themselves, giving everyone else the illusion of control and the responsibility for his decisions, and getting win-wins for everybody. Consider the dwarves he hired for Joffrey's wedding - exactly what Joffrey wanted, eventually. 

Also consider, Petyr didn't murder Jon, or Eddard, or Joffrey, or Barra, or the High Septon. Other people had motives and gave instructions, or took the matter into their own hands. Lysa is a bit of an anomaly - I am wondering if perhaps he had intended Sansa to throw her out the moon door, but the little ninny didn't take the chance. It's also odd that he didn't make sure Marillion was dead, when the Knights Declarant would be happy to provide that service for him. I'm not sure the person who delivered the confession to the knights was actually Marillion, but I'm pretty sure Marillion isn't dead, and is still in Petyr's pay, and have no idea what would make Marillion so valuable to Petyr that he would want him alive even after he had witnessed Lysa's death.

This is really really stretching it. First of all how did Littlefinger even know their relationship would become sufficiently strong enough that they'd start scheming together to advance their own power? Did he even meet Renly at that time to have an accurate assessment of his character (a shallow and impressionable young man). Or that Loras would even fall in love with Renly, when he could just go home without any special attachment to his Lord like Jaime did with Sumner Crakehall? And why hatch the plot to match Margaery to Robert when he expected Robert would die anyway? If he was the one to spread the rumours of Margaery looking like Lyanna, then he'd have to know that was a false claim and that he would be deliberately misleading Renly. Renly wasn't exactly secretive and his efforts to supplant Cersei were known to everyone in court. So Littlefinger hooked Loras up with Renly so that years down the line, they would plot to put Margaery on the throne, which he would then deliberately foil because...? So that Cersei would become paranoid when she knew of Renly's plans and kill Robert sooner? What?? That is unecessarily complex and convoluted.

About him and Mace being friends. When Littlefinger is sent to negotiate with the Tyrells, he says that he knew Loras Tyrell "passing well" at court (ACoK, Tyrion VIII) , and suggests they had an amiable relationship, but makes no mention of Mace. He also suggests using Loras as leverage against his father, as he is Mace's favorite, but does not say that he has any particular influence of his own over Mace, as is suggested by this theory.

As for the Myrish link, the Tyrells are rich, and Myrish products are held at great value, so there's nothing particularly incriminating about the portrait being done in the Myrish style. At her second and third weddings Lady Margaery wore a wedding gown “of sheer ivory silk, Myrish lace, and seed pearls” (AFfC Cersei III), so it is not as if Myrish products are unknown to the Tyrells, or that it is a special indicator for Littlefinger. Myrish items seem to be coveted by rich nobles, due to their costly and precious nature. Daenerys, Kevan, Tyrion, Cersei, Doran, Daario, all own Myrish items.

The much likelier version is that Littlefinger caught wind of Renly's plans to supplant Cersei, and spread the rumours/dropped some hints as you say (to disturb his plans, as Littlefinger thrives on chaos). And I could even buy that he had a part in Renly's decision to crown himself, by flattering and praising him, but the part I find far less likely is that he suggested that Loras squire for Renly, or knew enough about Renly and Loras' personalities (and gayness) or have such a clear eye into the future to see events unfold as it did it canon. Loras squiring for Renly makes perfect sense, as a way for Robert to get the Tyrells back into the fold after the Rebellion. 

Lastly, what does this even add to the story, to its overall themes and narratives? Everybody else is  just a puppet being played by Littlefinger the puppet master? Renly and Loras can't fall in love of their own volition? They can't have their own schemes and plans alongside Littlefinger own schemes and plans? And how would this twist even be revealed? If there are any hints, they're barely adding up.

[Walda]

2 hours ago, Peach King said:

how did Littlefinger even know their relationship would become sufficiently strong enough that they'd start scheming together to advance their own power?

Littlefinger knew enough about Mace to know he would be willing to scheme secretly to advance his own power. He knew the close bond that develops between a squire and the knight he served. He would not have known at the time how strong that bond would become in Renly's and Loras' case,  but he knew that Renly was the king's brother, and Loras was Mace's son, and as Petyr has a bold personality, he would be reasonably confident that he could manipulate these smaller fish (one only just past childhood, the other still a child) to manipulate their more powerful elders.

The plot to put Cersei aside and have King Robert wed Margaery might have been a ruse, an idea that he put into Renly's head, that would get Margaery to King's Landing, where she had the prospect of marrying whomever happened to be the King. That was what Mace wanted, a stake in the Iron Throne. 

The plot to kill Robert might not have been decided until after Robert had left for Winterfell, to invite Eddard to be Hand, and Petyr had reached some kind of rapprochement or understanding with Lord Tywin, who would naturally have expected Robert to appoint either himself or Jaime to that position.

The original plan was that Margaery would replace Cersei, reducing Lannister influence. By the time Varys starts talking of plans of regicide, its been revised so it is all about increasing Lannister influence, with Joffrey on the throne, and the Starks making ridiculous and poorly supported claims of regicide and blaming the Lannisters for everything and anything, until they wiped themselves out with their own stupidity. 

Varys might not have wanted the direwolf and the lion at each other's throats at the time, but Petyr Baelish was actively stirring that pot, reminding Eddard of Tywin's child-killing ways, and stirring up the irascible, irrational Tullys. Although, Petyr might have preferred to have Eddard as regent rather than Cersei - Sansa stuffed that up for him, and before then we see Petyr doing many 'favours' for Eddard, to 'help' him uncover the secret Jon Arryn had died over. We only see him doing 'favours' for Cersei later (eg. organising Slynt's 'overthrow' of Eddard for her, getting 'Tyrion's Whore' Alayaya etc.)

I'm not claiming Petyr Baelish and Mace were friends (although that is possible - Mace is actually pretty sneaky). I am claiming that Petyr's trade interests give him insight into the extent of Mace's wealth and power, and ambition, an insight that others might miss, because Mace is pretty subtle and doesn't stick his neck out.

I am also claiming that Petyr has made connections - that Mace knew Petyr as a trusted as a 'fixer' for the Tyrell interest, years before Bitterbridge. I think Petyr's direct contacts are more likely to be Paxter Redwyne (Mace's oldest friend) and Loras (Mace's favourite child) rather than Mace himself. And that Petyr must have been laughing all the way to Bitterbridge, as he had winkled the carte blanche and gold and horses and his small host (that I strongly suspect included at least a few Renly-loyalists that had remained in King's Landing after Renly left, remembering Renly had offered Eddard Stark a hundred swords but had left with only fifty - a claim Renly was not ashamed to make to Eddard Stark's widow. Although Renly does push his claims - like when he through Barristan's name in the mix as one that would support his claim over Stannis's, and I wouldn't put it past him to have ordered his army to make double the usual number of cookfires the night of Lord Caswell's feast. But he isn't a shameless liar like Baelish, and it is quite possible when he offered Eddard a hundred swords, he had that many to offer.)

Probably the most important thing the Lannisters gave him was one of Lord Redwyne's sons. I strongly suspect that he had already done deals with the Tyrells that included getting Lord Redwyne's sons and the Renly loyalists in King's landing to them. Also, I suspect, just from the time-frames and his not-dusty boots, that while Petyr was seen by the last of Lord Varys's spies to be galloping off in the direction of the Rose Road, that as soon as they were out of sight of King's Landing, they turned into a cove where the Rose Road met the Storm's End road, and went around by sea, first to the Arbor, and then up the Mander to Highgarden, and only then up to Bitterbridge by the Rose Road.  I'm guessing that the Lords were paid in honour, lands and titles after the battle, and to a much lesser extent than Cersei and Tyrion supposed with the gold. As Petyr pointed out, Lords take it ill when you offer them coin, like tradesmen. And he had probably offered to marry Margaery to the King already. Even if he had not, he knew this is what Mace would fight for, and he just needed to assure Mace he truly had the authority to arrange the match and it really would happen this time.

Of course, other people have their own schemes and plans. Eddard, for example, was going to work out who killed Jon Arryn and why, and was going to make sure the King did not waste money on a foolish tourney supposedly to honour him. People have their own predilections, too. Like Gregor, who would ride a war horse to a joust, and always bought stallions. And Loras, who swapped his white stallion for a grey mare fortuitously on heat that day. I'm not sure if Petyr sold horses personally, but I'm guessing he knew horse traders.

As to why Petyr would have so many plans - why he would be attempting to frame Jorah for the murder of Daenarys, why he brought Ned Stark the three people from Jon Arryn's household in order to lead him to Gendry and Chataya's. Why he needed to go to Pentos for wedding-dwarves in order to poison Joffrey,  why he didn't get rid of Marillion, what it serves him to marry Alyane to Harrold Hardyng ... I don't know.  It adds a layer of underhand intrigue to the story, keeps you guessing. But he does seem to be excessively involved in everything, and never more so than when he isn't there. 

His story is no more preposterous than the idea that Varys and Illyrio have been working to bring about a Blackfyre revolution for the last eighteen years, and that one is also well supported by the clues in the book.  It's not more convoluted and perverse than Doran's plan to send Quentyn to marry Daenarys because Viserys was going to marry Arianne. If you want to explore pointlessly subtle and convoluted plans so deep nobody can really see what they add to the narrative, Petyr yields to Doran. Although the plans are made much more explicit with Doran, probably because they have to be - GRRM spends a lot of Eddard's time in King's Landing sleuthing around clumsily and getting nowhere, but we don't know he is getting nowhere, and it is only towards the end of his arc that we learn that Petyr Baelish wasn't on his side. Then, in Clash of Kings, little clues to the 'mystery' of the first book keep leaking out and pointing to Petyr.  Plus, more stuff is happening. Like the Purple Wedding, that is written in a way that invites the reader to have a guess at what was really going on. And then we have 'only Cat'.

So I would say, Petyr's cunning plans adds suspense to the narrative, and mystery, and another layer of complexity. Every time you think another character did something (eg. especially Cersei), especially when Petyr wasn't there, you have to ask yourself if there is anything to suggest he set it up. And there always is.  Now Tywin has gone, he is the letter-writing mastermind with the far-flung contacts and Xanatos speed chess moves. I'm guessing his many schemes and the way he so needlessly drags Tyrion into them, are all building up to his big come-uppance. Which most likely a showdown between Tyrion and Petyr Baelish in Winds of Winter.

[the trees have eyes]

On 10/17/2018 at 3:56 AM, Rufus Snow said:

I think this below makes it more likely than not that they were conducting an affair at KL:

The context there reads to me as though it's the screaming instead of whispering that is the change, not that the 'when you love me' is something new. So the door is open to a Baelish spillage into the Arryn genepool. For all the quotes that have passed back and forth, none are conclusive - there is scope for interpretation either way.

Interesting quote.  It does indeed posit there have been years of "silences and whispers" which can be read as clandestine professions of affection between the two or as necessary secrecy in their lovemaking over the years.  I agree there is no proof either way but still find it unlikely that LF would undertake an affair in the Red Keep given Varys's reputation for ferreting out any indiscretions conducted there.

[Platypus Rex]

No, because:

Logically, the most likely father is the dude Lysa shared a bed with every night.

Neither LF nor Lysa think Sweetrobin is LF's.  They would know, if anyone would.  And if they don't know, how can it possibly be relevant to the story?  It's not like LF has targ heritage, that will allow Sweetrobin to fly a dragon.

Sweetrobin has this "wing-flapping" schtick going on.  This suggests to me that he is likely a true descendant of the "Winged Knight" of yore.