How exactly did Lysa Tully prevent Vale Lords from mobilizing and joining?

[dmfn]

13 minutes ago, lrresistable said:

point being i think that move would force the Vale into the war, not necessarily with the goal of backing Stannis's claim, but just removing the Lannister's power-grip on KL

 

I forgot to mention Eddard grew up in the Vale with Robert under Arryn, and Ned just got his head lopped off. I assume Jon Arryn's Lords would know he was a decent bloke and would not have acted against the Throne without due cause. trying to have a panoramic view of how the Lords would respond.. none of them single-handedly would be able to take Stannis' in the field, i don't think they even had their banners called yet. 

 

Though this would be different, If you remember in Dance how he approached the Mountain Clans one-by-one with his entire army and asked / shamed them each into joining his cause, i would note they wouldn't have much of a choice if he rolled up on them like that, under the tacit threat being he would wage war on them as traitors if refused.

 

Dunno, just get the feeling that power-play would've been enough to propel them into the war, but alas, this is not the story George had planned.

There may be bad blood between the Vale Lords and Stannis. He probably knew/suspected Jon Arryn was poisoned. Probably knew/suspected the incest. He was master of ships and the king's brother, and instead of confronting the problem he ditched his post and hid on Dragonstone until everyone who would have supported him died (Robert, Ned). 

[Arthur Peres]

On 9/27/2018 at 5:03 PM, Ellard Stark said:

She "fled" KL in a haste. Said the Lannisters poisoned their Liege Lord who was overall a nice dude. And chopped off their friend that they grown up with (Eddard). Yes Yes Yesss some were working to marry Lysa, some wanted to stay out and others wanted glory. How did a foreigner, re-assuming the regency in a kingdom she hardly been in (She lived at KL after Robert's Rebellion), prevent a skirmish from breaking out? I mean come on, shes not the brightest player.

Shouldnt there been some Vale dudes around? I mean everyone had their own loyal men around.

  

Where are all these honorable Vale knights? hmmmm

 

Even if all the valelings are stuck behind the bloody gate, how did a mutiny not break out?

 

Its a dangerous gamble LF took

Like others says the best reason is "the plot demands it."

The Lannisters pretty much provoked the Vale lords into war.

Jaime held the title that was historical their. Tywin started the war with the Riverlands their allys. Joffrey beheaded Eddard personal friend of them. Tyrion was acused in front of them all of murdering Jon Arryn. Tyrion also went far enough to arm the mountain claims.

Even Tywin considered them hostile to him...

Ser Kevan did as he was bid. Lord Tywin unrolled the leather, smoothing it flat. “Jaime has left us in a bad way. Roose Bolton and the remnants of his host are north of us. Our enemies hold the Twins and Moat Cailin. Robb Stark sits to the west, so we cannot retreat to Lannisport and the Rock unless we choose to give battle. Jaime is taken, and his army for all purposes has ceased to exist. Thoros of Myr and Beric Dondarrion continue to plague our foraging parties. To our east we have the Arryns, Stannis Baratheon sits on Dragonstone, and in the south Highgarden and Storm’s End are calling their banners.”

[Van Gogh]

On 9/27/2018 at 4:03 PM, Ellard Stark said:

She "fled" KL in a haste. Said the Lannisters poisoned their Liege Lord who was overall a nice dude. And chopped off their friend that they grown up with (Eddard). Yes Yes Yesss some were working to marry Lysa, some wanted to stay out and others wanted glory. How did a foreigner, re-assuming the regency in a kingdom she hardly been in (She lived at KL after Robert's Rebellion), prevent a skirmish from breaking out? I mean come on, shes not the brightest player.

Shouldnt there been some Vale dudes around? I mean everyone had their own loyal men around.

 

Where are all these honorable Vale knights? hmmmm

 

Even if all the valelings are stuck behind the bloody gate, how did a mutiny not break out?

 

Its a dangerous gamble LF took

 

On 9/27/2018 at 4:06 PM, Canon Claude said:

Honour demands that the lords obey Jon Arryn’s widow. And anyone who disobeys is declared a traitor and oath breaker, meaning the loyal lords can enrich themselves.

They have a strict pecking order.  The lady above told them to stay and protect little Lord Robin. 

[M.Alhazred]

Stannis going into The Vale with his army woulda been the smart play.He gets more troops while putting LF and Lysa on the shelf.Sadly it didn't work out that way.

[Bernie Mac]

21 minutes ago, M.Alhazred said:

Stannis going into The Vale with his army woulda been the smart play.He gets more troops while putting LF and Lysa on the shelf.Sadly it didn't work out that way.

Lysa originally killed her husband, in part, because he wanted to give her son to him. Stannis arriving with an armed force would have been attacked and beaten in the Vale before he had a chance to talk to her. 

[lrresistable]

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Lysa originally killed her husband, in part, because he wanted to give her son to him. Stannis arriving with an armed force would have been attacked and beaten in the Vale before he had a chance to talk to her. 

Attacked & beaten, by whom?

 

I'd like to mention Stannis represents the Baratheon part in the Stark-Tully-Vale-Baratheon gridlock alliance that deposed Aerys.

It's interesting, because Lysa as a widow (as of Clash) could definitely promise her hand to a lordling if he would attack Stannis, but i do not see the rest of these so called 'honourable knights' attacking him when he's rousing the Vale-Lords for war against the Lannisters. Consider the political climate at the time.

 

Her hold there is already tenuous at best, and we hear about some Lords like Yohn Royce almost in open revolt against her regardless. His arrival would act as a catalyst. How are people supposed to respect her rule when Tywin is raping & pillaging her homeland? 

 

None of the Vale Lords have armies ready in the field. He comes representing the will of the Iron Throne. Lysa doesn't even really represent this Kingdom, or Jon's wishes. She was scared shitless that war would arrive at her own doorstep. Better to send them all off through the Bloody Gate.

 

 Sweetrobin was even meant to be fostered at Dragonstone, though we don't know how many others were aware of this

 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On ‎9‎/‎27‎/‎2018 at 4:03 PM, Ellard Stark said:

She "fled" KL in a haste. Said the Lannisters poisoned their Liege Lord who was overall a nice dude. And chopped off their friend that they grown up with (Eddard). Yes Yes Yesss some were working to marry Lysa, some wanted to stay out and others wanted glory. How did a foreigner, re-assuming the regency in a kingdom she hardly been in (She lived at KL after Robert's Rebellion), prevent a skirmish from breaking out? I mean come on, shes not the brightest player.

Shouldnt there been some Vale dudes around? I mean everyone had their own loyal men around.

 

Where are all these honorable Vale knights? hmmmm

 

Even if all the valelings are stuck behind the bloody gate, how did a mutiny not break out?

 

Its a dangerous gamble LF took

She is Robert Arryn's regent until he comes of age .

[honorable men]

Its hard to march through Plot Armor.

[Chris Mormont]

Bottom line is that as Lady Arryn, Lysa does hold the power in the vale.  She has every reason to get involved especially if she sticks to her story that the Lannisters killed Jon.  Her public reasons to not get involved, protecting Robyn and keeping the Vale out of a war that isn't theirs is not her real reason.  Obviously LF has told her to stay out of the war because it is in his best interest

[cpg2016]

On 9/27/2018 at 4:30 PM, Ellard Stark said:

And Robb was named King in the North&Riverlands. That didn't stop the Hornwood mess. The Karstark Mess. Freys being a pain in the arse on DAY ONE.

 

We have unruly bannermen all over the place.

Yes I read that a long time ago. Its basically Plot armor. Because no one else have faced unruly bannerman. Esp when rulled by a nutty regent foreign to the lands.

You fundamentally don't understand the Hornwood crisis.  The whole point is that Robb via Ser Rodrik is faced with a bunch of equally-valid options for the succession - no one is rebelling or disobeying their liege lord until Ramsay forcibly marries Donella Hornwood, at which point Robb is about to go the way of the dodo and there is a secondary issue of whether it's a legitimate marriage.  What happened in the Hornwood crisis isn't about rebellion or disloyalty, but the way in which feudal fiefs are passed down when succession is disputed.  It actually reaffirms Robb's authority, because aside from the violent psychopath Ramsay, everyone agrees that it's Robb's decision to make.  It's underscoring the loyalty to the Starks.  And what the Karstarks do is treason, and for it Rickard is executed.  So no, those are not valid comparisons.

And the Freys are a powerful House facing a particularly weak overlord.  And you'll note even Walder Frey is particularly careful to never actually disobey a direct order or revolt; he's slow in carrying out his duties but never to an extent that isn't possible to excuse.  He even has his "reasons" in place for not marching to help Edmure.  The reason he doesn't get a marriage from Hoster is probably very much due to this perceived disloyalty (and Hoster's ambitions for his children, of course); being a staunch supporter means getting rewards, being a fence sitter means being cut off from signs of favor.

So yea, maybe Lysa has a small amount of plot armor.  But she's in absolute control of the one male-line Arryn left, as well as having been Lady of the Vale for 16 years or so; she isn't some Johnny Come Lately trying to exercise authority in the manner of the Boltons.  It's likely she's spent more time as Lady of the Vale than she did as Lysa Tully.  Therefore, the various Vale Lords have almost certainly had long exposure to her authority, and not to mention as a born Tully, she might be expected to have even more outsize influence when cautioning against intervening in the Riverlands.

And again, it bears mentioning, the Vale is almost in an open state of revolt over her decisions.  Directly countermanding her orders and marching to support Robb means the possibility of being disseised, especially considering there is effectively no way back into the Vale, even if Robb triumphs.

[Geddus]

17 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

So yea, maybe Lysa has a small amount of plot armor.

I think the plot armor comment was referred to the Lannisters, they were extremely lucky the Vale stayed out from the war. In fact, at the beginning they were extremely lucky, period.

[The Sunland Lord]

Plot convenience. 

[argonak]

I think it would have made a lot of sense if Tywin had been exposed as having a deal wtih Littlefinger to arragne the assasination of Jon Arryn, and keep the Vale out of any succession crisis.  The way they bumble into the war of 5 kings makes a lot more sense if it was Tywin's plot to sieze control through his grandchildren, than Littlefinger's plot to create chaos.

[Bernie Mac]

5 hours ago, Geddus said:

I think the plot armor comment was referred to the Lannisters, they were extremely lucky the Vale stayed out from the war. In fact, at the beginning they were extremely lucky, period.

Except its not really plot armour as the author is clear that the Vale lords would be split in their alliances, their would  have been civil war in the Vale rather than the entire realm support Robb. 

18 years ago the Vale was split between the Crown and a vastly experienced Jon Arryn, and this was after the Arryn heir and two Royces were murdered by Aerys. 

[cpg2016]

5 hours ago, Geddus said:

I think the plot armor comment was referred to the Lannisters, they were extremely lucky the Vale stayed out from the war. In fact, at the beginning they were extremely lucky, period.

Oh, yeah, for sure.  I mean, the Lannisters could not have prepared for and executed the WOT5K more poorly.  GRRM has his hand firmly pressing down on the scales on their behalf from Day 1.

[cpg2016]

41 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Except its not really plot armour as the author is clear that the Vale lords would be split in their alliances, their would  have been civil war in the Vale rather than the entire realm support Robb. 

18 years ago the Vale was split between the Crown and a vastly experienced Jon Arryn, and this was after the Arryn heir and two Royces were murdered by Aerys. 

Where is he clear about that?  No one in the Vale is even remotely supportive of Cersei or the Lannisters that we know of.  Most of the important lords we're given access to are the Lords Declarant, which I think can be considered to be anti-Littlefinger and his policies (and, therefore, likely to be more supportive of Robb) and the ones in hock to Littlefinger.

There is a major difference between going against a 300 year old royal dynasty, and a boy king and his grasping mother who come from a widely reviled family.

[Bernie Mac]

Just now, cpg2016 said:

Where is he clear about that? 

GeoRR: The lords of the Vale are numerous. As with any large group, their views vary.

GeoRR: "Brothers" overstates the case, but certainly Ned made friends during his years in the Eyrie... so did Robert, however, so some of the Vale houses would be just as well disposed toward Baratheon as toward Stark.

GeoRR: Do some of the them want to join Robb? Certainly. Most notably Bronze Yohn Royce. Others, however, want no part of the war, and some may even favor the other contenders.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Clans_of_the_North_and_the_Valelords

Just now, cpg2016 said:

 

No one in the Vale is even remotely supportive of Cersei or the Lannisters that we know of. 

no, but some  would be interested in following the son of Robert Baratheon. 

 

[cpg2016]

1 minute ago, Bernie Mac said:

GeoRR: The lords of the Vale are numerous. As with any large group, their views vary.

GeoRR: "Brothers" overstates the case, but certainly Ned made friends during his years in the Eyrie... so did Robert, however, so some of the Vale houses would be just as well disposed toward Baratheon as toward Stark.

GeoRR: Do some of the them want to join Robb? Certainly. Most notably Bronze Yohn Royce. Others, however, want no part of the war, and some may even favor the other contenders.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Clans_of_the_North_and_the_Valelords

no, but some  would be interested in following the son of Robert Baratheon. 

 

And after Stannis pens and sends his letter about Joffrey's bastard nature, many of those people are going to be far more skeptical.

Feudal martial aristocracies tend to favor fighting, as a class, because it's a route to glory and riches and perhaps new fiefs.  The Vale lords, as a class, are far more likely to be sympathetic to Robb than not.  We hear of the second most powerful Vale lord favoring Robb, and not one specific lord favoring Joffrey.  Obviously the Vale is not going to break 100% for either side, but given Bronze Yohn's stature and reputation (essentially the second most powerful Vale lord) and Lysa's comments, there is a vocal pro-Robb faction at the Eyrie and no corresponding pro-Lannister faction.  While we shouldn't discount the existence of it, the fact that one side of this argument is named and heard, and the other remains nameless and silent, gives us a clear indication of where the balance of opinion lies in the Vale.

[Bernie Mac]

1 minute ago, cpg2016 said:

And after Stannis pens and sends his letter about Joffrey's bastard nature, many of those people are going to be far more skeptical.

A little, perhaps, but the timing of Stannis' revelation are very suspect. Waiting a few months after the kings death to announce that his children are bastards and that he was the real king is not exactly that believable. 

1 minute ago, cpg2016 said:

Feudal martial aristocracies tend to favor fighting, as a class, because it's a route to glory and riches and perhaps new fiefs.  The Vale lords, as a class, are far more likely to be sympathetic to Robb than not.  We hear of the second most powerful Vale lord favoring Robb, and not one specific lord favoring Joffrey.

And yet Royce's son does not go to join Robb but Renly. GRRM is correct (it is his universe after all) the Vale would have been divided. By staying neutral Lysa prevented a Vale civil war. 

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

A little, perhaps, but the timing of Stannis' revelation are very suspect. Waiting a few months after the kings death to announce that his children are bastards and that he was the real king is not exactly that believable

A fair point-we don’t see many character outside of Stannis’ most faithful followers express actual belief in his claim he’s making with really no sort of proof-at best he has Edruc Storm who happened to look like Robert Baratheon more than the children of Cersi did; but that’s generally not going to be seen as a big thing; like no one accuses Catelyn of having committed adultery of virtue of four of her five children looked more like her than her husband. 

Hell even Davos made a small slip of referring to Joffrey as Stannis’ nephew upon informing the man on the boy’s demise.

Hell Arriane Martell(who hates the Lannister), doesn’t seem to genuinely think the girl she planned to crown queen was some abomination of inchest. 

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

And yet Royce's son does not go to join Robb but Renly. GRRM is correct (it is his universe after all) the Vale would have been divided. By staying neutral Lysa prevented a Vale civil war. 

Most assuredly. Those who favor House Baratheon and those who favor House Stark would spill blood.