US Politics: Red, Red Whine

[James Arryn]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

Matt Grossmann, a premier scholar in American Behavior, posted an interesting article on 538 yesterday:

Voters Like a Political Party Until It Passes Laws

 

So, is the baseline some objectively true ‘middle’, or just the perception thereof? If the latter, what shifts the middle?

(not rhetorical)

[Bonnot OG]

Time to get a vasectomy and play my part in white genocide.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, James Arryn said:

So, is the baseline some objectively true ‘middle’, or just the perception thereof? If the latter, what shifts the middle?

No I wouldn't say a "true middle."  More of a policy space that surrounds the middle (formal models on the subject try to outline this, see Pivotal Politics) - that is constantly moving from one party's advantage to another.  The problem with polarization is those shifts fluctuate more radically.  And on the later point, see Grossmann and Hopkins' Asymmetrical Politics (2016).  (He really should be paying me.)

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

I thought in the end it would go the other way, Collins a no and Murkowski a yes.

It's an Alaska thing. Kavanaugh ruled on a case that deeply upset a key constituency of hers.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

43 minutes ago, DMC said:

Matt Grossmann, a premier scholar in American Behavior, posted an interesting article on 538 yesterday:

Voters Like a Political Party Until It Passes Laws

 

The power of negative campaigning. When one side passes something, the other demonizes it. And since the public is ill informed, it works, especially if it's a policy that will take awhile to be felt.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, James Arryn said:

Pure cowardice. I mean, disbelieve her if you want too...but I guess that fell flat when she screentested so credibly...but this whole ‘we believe you but we don’t believe you’ crap is really gross. As is pretending this is a burden of proof situation. 

This is what makes it so obvious that this was all a charade. They never wanted the hearing. And when she did much better than Kavanaugh, they ignored it. They never wanted a FBI inquiry, and when they had to have one, they made sure it was a sham. Kavanaugh was always going to go through, even if he was guilty of everything. One of their main goals is to reshape the judiciary, in part because they know the demographics are against them, and they weren't going to miss their chance to move it significantly to the right for a generation.  

[Larry of the Lawn]

5 minutes ago, SpaceForce Tywin et al. said:

This is what makes it so obvious that this was all a charade. They never wanted the hearing. And when she did much better than Kavanaugh, they ignored it. They never wanted a FBI inquiry, and when they had to have one, they made sure it was a sham. Kavanaugh was always going to go through, even if he was guilty of everything. One of their main goals is to reshape the judiciary, in part because they know the demographics are against them, and they weren't going to miss their chance to move it significantly to the right for a generation.  

Yup.  They are who we thought they were.  

[Martell Spy]

It is okay, people. Collins has assured us he will be another Souter.

[lokisnow]

1 hour ago, SpaceForce Tywin et al. said:

Key words here that haven’t been alluded to, but not said: Committee Chairmanships.

You hold your nose and let Manchin stay in the party, though you deny him any committee chairs worth a damn.

And one Wonders why people hate DC... that will really be a proportionate response by our elected democrat scum fuckers: women lose rights, Manchin will have leadership threaten to take away a privilege he feels entitled to (but they won’t actually do it if he throws a hissy fit about it).

i mean it is damn near the same thing you propose! Wow ! We will really grab Manchin by the balls with that one. Whooo boy, I feel like I can really reassure people now, when I tell them that Manchin might lose a possible committee chair over this, they will feel soooooooo much better knowing that true justice is on the horizon.

[Bonnot OG]

Are drunken prep school frat guys that rape that valued in coal country that Manchin and his surrogates just couldn’t find any possible way to defend a “no” vote?

 

[Serious Callers Only]

Odds of civil war just went up, just because this will embolden the orange fascist narcisist to suspend elections. If after all they support a rapist like him, they'll support everything.

 

Good job traitors on the GOP.

[Martell Spy]

Susan Collins’s Enraging Speech Led Donors to Crash a Site Raising Money for Her Opponent

https://www.thecut.com/2018/10/site-fundraising-for-susan-collins-opponent-crashed-from-donations.html

[karaddin]

6 hours ago, Ran said:

You can't cut him off if you want to keep the chance of winning the Senate, the chances are which are even narrower now than they were a couple of weeks ago because Heitkamp appears to be drowning in the polls.

The problem with this attitude (that has not already been covered) which is admittedly hard to quantify) is the depressing effect this has on potential voters, and getting out additional potential voters seems to be one of the main paths to the Dems actually managing a win. You're trying to reach out to people who are scared, who are angry and who are disillusioned with the political process and convince them that voting Dem will make a difference, it will save the country. Then one of the Dems turns around and pulls this shit which just undermines all the work you're doing.

[Serious Callers Only]

Yep yep. That guy is just another traitor enabler. The tea party had it right in this case. PRIMARY HIM!

 

People depending on the Fox News media machine to elect 'good' democrats that betray 1/2 of the country (for certain) and all of it (in probable potentia) because they're afraid not to get the votes otherwise, what a joke.

[Bonnot OG]

 

hes scum. He's worthless. His position is useless. He failed miserably. His re-election means nothing and him sitting in that seat is pointless with a vote like he gave today. He'll  be dead in 10-20 years while Kavanaugh will have at least another decade on the court.

Like do people not get grasp we needed his vote today and he bailed like the selfish scumfuck he is? What good is his position on the senate if he condemns us to a far right Supreme Court for decades and endangers numerous generations and demographics?

 

 

[Ran]

You can't primary him. He's already the nominee. He won nearly 70% of the vote in the primary against Paula Jean Swearengin, who ran very much to his left.

If you are a progressive in WV, as Kal said, you hold your nose and vote for Manchin. And come 2024, you back a primary challenger if Manchin runs for re-election.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Bonnot OG said:

 

hes scum. He's worthless. His position is useless. He failed miserably. His re-election means nothing and him sitting in that seat is pointless with a vote like he gave today. He'll  be dead in 10-20 years while Kavanaugh will have at least another decade on the court.

Like do people not get grasp we needed his vote today and he bailed like the selfish scumfuck he is? What good is his position on the senate if he condemns us to a far right Supreme Court for decades and endangers numerous generations and demographics?

 

 

His vote would have been meaningless. He could not have changed the outcome. With Collins voting yes, Republicans have enough. 

He voted to save my sons healthcare. Tell me again how that vote - which WAS needed - is a waste, but this one which wouldn't have mattered was worth something. 

[Ran]

Dean Heller voted for Kavanaugh. He's in a closely-contested race with Jacky Rosen. Donating time or money to her campaign seems like a good way to help increase the odds that the Senate flips to the Democrats. 

ETA: Also, if it has not been mentioned: Vote with Me. Using it as recommended may be a concrete thing people can do to try and move the needle.

[SeanF]

3 hours ago, Ran said:

You can't primary him. He's already the nominee. He won nearly 70% of the vote in the primary against Paula Jean Swearengin, who ran very much to his left.

If you are a progressive in WV, as Kal said, you hold your nose and vote for Manchin. And come 2024, you back a primary challenger if Manchin runs for re-election.

If one wants a Democrat to win West Virginia, it has to be Manchin.  Swearengin would have been crushed by the Republicans, had she been the candidate.

[Ran]

8 minutes ago, SeanF said:

If one wants a Democrat to win West Virginia, it has to be Manchin.  Swearengin would have been crushed by the Republicans, had she been the candidate.

I think there's an argument for changing circumstances in 2024 which may make a candidate more to the left of Manchin viable in WV. Not full-on progressive, but nearer the Democratic mainstream. It all really depends on what happens in the next six years.