US Politics: Red Whine Hangover

[lokisnow]

2 hours ago, SpaceForce Tywin et al. said:

One thing that has me worried is I haven’t seen any ground game. Maybe it’s different in other places, and where I live is relatively safe, but it’s been a ghost town. No calls from phone bankers after the primaries (I got some texts beforehand). No canvassers either trying to talk to you or just leave campaign lit. No town hall requests. No lawn signs. Nothing. It’s been all quiet other than the constant ads. I’ve worked on a number of campaigns and I’ve never seen this.

It seems bizarre given that every major seat is up for election year…..

That is worrisome. In terms of a California battleground, I live in Katie hills district and her ground game is immense and has been a constant presence since March. Only in the last two weeks has she started flushing money on unimportant crap like tv ads.

[Ice Queen]

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I don’t understand this, my car manual specifically warns I’m not to use any fuel higher than E10. I drive a Toyota. Do American cars take higher levels of Egasoline? Is this yet another plot to force the world to support US farmers?

I had a Honda and the manual said the same. Only if your vehicle is flex fuel can you go higher than E10. 

[Larry of the Lawn]

43 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

That is worrisome. In terms of a California battleground, I live in Katie hills district and her ground game is immense and has been a constant presence since March. Only in the last two weeks has she started flushing money on unimportant crap like tv ads.

It's the same here in NY-19 as Tywin described, and I'm in a very purple district with a Republican incumbent.  Our district is gerrymandered pretty heavily in favor of the GOP, including all the rural areas in the Hudson valley between New Paltz and Albany.  Dems had a half dozen solid candidates in the primary, all I'm hearing and seeing is one overplayed radio ad against the incumbent but pretty much zeronground game for Delgado (D).  The GOP has a slightly stronger radio presence and, as seems typical the last three or four elections, still loves the yard signs.  

I'm having a really tough time knowing if I'm registered, going to the town hall tomorrow.  I had a lot of trouble getting just NY driver's license, finally got that last week and they asked if I'd like to register to vote at the same time.  I was stoked, filled out the form, and then on the way out the door read the fine print and see that it could take 60 days for me to be registered.  Checked at vote.org and I'm not listed.  The worst part is I don't even have a photo ID because NY kept my CT license and my new one hasn't arrived in the mail yet (who the fuck mails a license?) When I lived in CT and CA they printed you one on the spot.  So now I'm going to try to register with zero photo ID (passport is well expired and MIA).  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I guess the optimistic counterargument I can think of is that maybe campaigns are moving away from traditional methods and are just relying on T.V. and internet ads and are saving their ground game for the GOTV operations. Minnesota has same day registration so registration drives really aren’t a thing here.

One thing I find confusing is how different Clinton’s operations were from Obama’s considering the overlap of staffers. I was loaned out to Obama’s 2012 campaign at the tail end and I got to see their operations. It was incredibly surgical, down to the point where they had it mapped out how many times the needed to attempt and successfully “touch” people, and it varied by all kinds of demographics. I actually thought it was a terrible idea because us field folks kept telling them that voters were getting pissed off and were threatening not to vote, but they insisted we kept doing it (I didn’t a lot of the time). They certainly were targeting areas where they knew they would have a high level of support, i.e. my neck of the woods, and they were doing it right up to Election Day. I cannot recall ever hearing from the Clinton campaign after the primaries, and even then all we got was some campaign lit. Maybe that was the first sign of a change in the process? Because we went hard throughout the 2014 cycle and campaigned the way I’ve always seen it done.

3 hours ago, Guy Kilmore said:

It's been way too quiet and I'm in one of those competitive districts. The only point of contact I've gotten has been from Klobouchar.

That’s troubling to hear considering the race is totally winnable. Craig’s ads are really effective, but she needs a strong ground game to unseat that piece of human garbage. Sometimes staffers/former staffers can worry too much because campaigns don’t always target them as heavily, but you’re just a somewhat active person in the district.

[Fez]

1 hour ago, larrytheimp said:

It's the same here in NY-19 as Tywin described, and I'm in a very purple district with a Republican incumbent.  Our district is gerrymandered pretty heavily in favor of the GOP, including all the rural areas in the Hudson valley between New Paltz and Albany.  Dems had a half dozen solid candidates in the primary, all I'm hearing and seeing is one overplayed radio ad against the incumbent but pretty much zeronground game for Delgado (D).  The GOP has a slightly stronger radio presence and, as seems typical the last three or four elections, still loves the yard signs.  

I'm having a really tough time knowing if I'm registered, going to the town hall tomorrow.  I had a lot of trouble getting just NY driver's license, finally got that last week and they asked if I'd like to register to vote at the same time.  I was stoked, filled out the form, and then on the way out the door read the fine print and see that it could take 60 days for me to be registered.  Checked at vote.org and I'm not listed.  The worst part is I don't even have a photo ID because NY kept my CT license and my new one hasn't arrived in the mail yet (who the fuck mails a license?) When I lived in CT and CA they printed you one on the spot.  So now I'm going to try to register with zero photo ID (passport is well expired and MIA).  

Small world. That's my old district (though the shape used to be different), and my dad still lives there.

It's actually not that bad a gerrymander, the whole map is more a incumbent protection thing. New York didn't get around to redistricting until 2013, but a lot of the 19th is the old 20th and had one of the larger Obama->Trump swings in the country. Gibson won the district easily for two terms, which made it seem redder than it is, but he was relatively moderate and had a very impressive resume. Faso got lucky running in 2016 and getting to run against Zephyr Teachout, who is not actually impressive on the campaign trail. He's a top target for Democrats this year.

I don't know if Faso actually will lose, its hard to know if Trump has lost any of his appeal in the redder areas yet, but as more and more white liberal transplants from New York City move to places like Hudson, the district is going to get bluer and bluer over time. Shame to hear that Delgado isn't savaging Faso for his vote for the tax cut law, New York is one the states screwed over the worst by it.

Also shame to hear that New York has never gotten better at anything election-related. When I turned 18 and registered to vote, it was a huge pain. So much paperwork got misfiled, including the form I had submitted to register as a Democrat. My name was actually one of the ones Republicans tried to throw off the voter rolls in 2010 (my last election in New York before moving to Virginia), though fortunately Democratic lawyers got an injunction against the whole attempt.

[DMC]

13 minutes ago, Fez said:

Also shame to hear that New York has never gotten better at anything election-related. When I turned 18 and registered to vote, it was a huge pain. So much paperwork got misfiled, including the form I had submitted to register as a Democrat.

Huh.  Granted I only voted in New York in 2004 and 2006, but I don't recall any issues registering when I turned 18 nor getting an absentee ballot each time.  Guess I got lucky.

[lokisnow]

Schumer is the worst.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/11/senate-democrats-judges-895168

[Larry of the Lawn]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

Small world. That's my old district (though the shape used to be different), and my dad still lives there.

It's actually not that bad a gerrymander, the whole map is more a incumbent protection thing. New York didn't get around to redistricting until 2013, but a lot of the 19th is the old 20th and had one of the larger Obama->Trump swings in the country. Gibson won the district easily for two terms, which made it seem redder than it is, but he was relatively moderate and had a very impressive resume. Faso got lucky running in 2016 and getting to run against Zephyr Teachout, who is not actually impressive on the campaign trail. He's a top target for Democrats this year.

I don't know if Faso actually will lose, its hard to know if Trump has lost any of his appeal in the redder areas yet, but as more and more white liberal transplants from New York City move to places like Hudson, the district is going to get bluer and bluer over time. Shame to hear that Delgado isn't savaging Faso for his vote for the tax cut law, New York is one the states screwed over the worst by it.

Also shame to hear that New York has never gotten better at anything election-related. When I turned 18 and registered to vote, it was a huge pain. So much paperwork got misfiled, including the form I had submitted to register as a Democrat. My name was actually one of the ones Republicans tried to throw off the voter rolls in 2010 (my last election in New York before moving to Virginia), though fortunately Democratic lawyers got an injunction against the whole attempt.

Faso got one of the gimme "no" vote on the tax cut, I believe, because the district is so close.  Someone is hammering him him with in ad on the health care bill but that's about it.   Faso lives very close to me and I give him the finger every chance I get.  #civility.  I photo bombed one of his ads at a local hardware store and flipped him off when. I was on a job in his neighborhood.  There are also two people on my 2.5 mile long county Rd that are flying Confederate flag in front of their homes.  

Hudson was growing but most of the city people there are maintaining their NYC/second home status.  

ETA:. Yeah, Faso got a pass on the tax cut

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, larrytheimp said:

Faso got one of the gimme "no" vote on the tax cut, I believe, because the district is so close.  Someone is hammering him him with in ad on the health care bill but that's about it.   Faso lives very close to me and I give him the finger every chance I get.  #civility.  I photo bombed one of his ads at a local hardware store and flipped him off when. I was on a job in his neighborhood.  There are also two people on my 2.5 mile long county Rd that are flying Confederate flag in front of their homes.  

Hudson was growing but most of the city people there are maintaining their NYC/second home status.  

ETA:. Yeah, Faso got a pass on the tax cut

New York state politics and NYC politics are equal to the Byzantines, and they started so much later (with the Dutch taking this a colony) and haven't gone on near as long -- a mere 4 plus centuries now.

[OldGimletEye]

19 hours ago, Mexal said:

1. He didn't write it. Basically a press release.

Well, sure I know he didn't actually write it. That would require actually turning on the computer and firing up the word processor application, which might be a bit too much for an orange baboon clown.

Still he put his name on it. Which means he owns it. Though I doubt he even bothered to proof read it, which is what most sensible people would do, before they attached their name to a document.

[Larry of the Lawn]

16 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I don’t understand this, my car manual specifically warns I’m not to use any fuel higher than E10. I drive a Toyota. Do American cars take higher levels of Egasoline? Is this yet another plot to force the world to support US farmers?

Not exactly.  There are ethanol flex fuel engines, which can run on any blend of ethanol and gasoline. These make up a small number of engines out there   Most of these engines are found in the US and Brazil and a few in Canada.  Most normal gasoline engines (like yours) can run on gas with a small amount of ethanol, thus the 10%limit from the manufacturer.  But any ethanol in a normal gas engine (especially older ones) tends to result in higher engine temps, which breaks down oil and coolant and seals faster than normal.  

Some gas stations sell non ethanol gas in the US (Stewart's always has nonethanol 91 octane gas).  Ethanol containing gas also chews up 2-strike motors in a hurry, I never use it in my gas powered saw or other tools.  

Ethanol is also a terrible use of land.

[The guy from the Vale]

Eh, I disagree about that last statement. Burning Ethanol as fuel is a terrible use of booze, though.

[Ice Queen]

4 hours ago, larrytheimp said:

Not exactly.  There are ethanol flex fuel engines, which can run on any blend of ethanol and gasoline. These make up a small number of engines out there   Most of these engines are found in the US and Brazil and a few in Canada.  Most normal gasoline engines (like yours) can run on gas with a small amount of ethanol, thus the 10%limit from the manufacturer.  But any ethanol in a normal gas engine (especially older ones) tends to result in higher engine temps, which breaks down oil and coolant and seals faster than normal.  

Some gas stations sell non ethanol gas in the US (Stewart's always has nonethanol 91 octane gas).  Ethanol containing gas also chews up 2-strike motors in a hurry, I never use it in my gas powered saw or other tools.  

Ethanol is also a terrible use of land.

Corn is food, not fuel.

Ethanol also kills your mpg. Anything higher than E10 in non-flex fuel vehicles corrodes the engine. 

[Martell Spy]

Beto O’Rourke Raises $38 Million in Third Quarter, Biggest Haul for Senate Candidate Ever

https://www.thedailybeast.com/beto-orourke-raises-dollar38-million-in-third-quarter-biggest-haul-for-senate-candidate-ever?ref=home

Quote

O'Rourke raised more than $38 million in the third quarter of 2018 from 802,836 individual contributions. Not only did the haul break previous records for Senate candidates, it also outpaced previous quarters where he raised more money than Cruz.

 

[lokisnow]

16 minutes ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

Corn is food, not fuel.

 

Nope most grain is booze and animal feed not people food.

besides most corn ethanol is produced by separating the carbohydarate from the protein  and fat, then the protein is mixed into animal feed to make higher margin “high protein” feed and the fat can become corn oil or sent to a variety of other products. So saying it’s taken out of the food chain is precisely wrong, unless you’re considering booze or high fructose corn syrup as food.

Cellulosic material is also processed as much as possible to extract every drop of Usable carbohydrate.

 

[Ice Queen]

10 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

Quote

Nope most grain is booze and animal feed not people food.

I was being sarcastic. Didn't you ever see Finding Nemo? LOL 

Quote

besides most corn ethanol is produced by separating the carbohydarate from the protein  and fat, then the protein is mixed into animal feed to make higher margin “high protein” feed and the fat can become corn oil or sent to a variety of other products. So saying it’s taken out of the food chain is precisely wrong, unless you’re considering booze or high fructose corn syrup as food.

Cellulosic material is also processed as much as possible to extract every drop of Usable carbohydrate.

It depends on whether you use a wet or dry method, but yes. You can also use sugar cane and red sorghum to make ethanol. There's no need to use corn at all. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

It’s really nice to see that Melania has found her voice. She doesn’t believe accusers and doesn’t care if her husband cheats on her.

#MatchMadeInHeaven

[Morpheus]

It sure looks like Trump wants to let Saudi Arabia get away with murder because of money (and all those sleepovers he sends Lil Jared to).

[Week]

13 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

It sure looks like Trump wants to let Saudi Arabia get away with murder because of money (and all those sleepovers he sends Lil Jared to).

Money represented by intent to purchase arms and few actual deals (at least certainly not 100$bn worth). So, not even real money.

Not to mention that the threat of switching arms dealers (yuck) to Russia and China is unrealistic (as I understand) due to the interdependencies of systems. Changing from an American platform to Chinese or Russia for anything more complicated than small arms seems like a huge challenge. 

[Morpheus]

8 minutes ago, Week said:

Money represented by intent to purchase arms and few actual deals (at least certainly not 100$bn worth). So, not even real money.

Not to mention that the threat of switching arms dealers (yuck) to Russia and China is unrealistic (as I understand) due to the interdependencies of systems. Changing from an American platform to Chinese or Russia for anything more complicated than small arms seems like a huge challenge. 

The U.S may not have gotten real money, the Trump family though? There needs to be a full investigation of the Trumps’ and Kushner’s relationship with MBS.