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NFL 2018 III - Gronk is Better at Life Than You


unJon

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Hey folks.  I apologize for not commenting on the thread in the last few weeks.  In all sincerity, I am having trouble coming to the "Song of Ice and Fire" message boards when ... there are no new Song of Ice and Fire books.  Seriously, its been SEVEN YEARS since the last book and we are all still here because, frankly, we are suckers.  

Anyway, the Pats win probably one of the most thrilling regular season games in recent memory.  The Chiefs were everything they were advertised as- strong on the O-Line, a great running team and probably the most exciting QB since Peyton Manning.  This was a great game to watch and the Pats played the way they will need to if they hope to make it back to the AFC Championship Game.  The Pats looked GREAT on the O-Line, their receivers got open and the running game looked tremendous.  Also, Tom Brady looked about as great as he could.  The D looked largely porous, but Hightower was returning to his fighting form and the turnovers were strong.  BUT ... had this game been held at KC or had it lasted 5 more minutes or if the KC D was healthier, I dare say that KC would have won and probably by double digits.

This is a great season for KC and if they hold it together they will be in the AFC Championship game against the Pats or Steelers (sorry Mexal... if you are still here) and could be as strong as a rep as the AFC could hope for.  The Pats, meanwhile, are picking up steam and they may be able to get there.  But the secondary can be exploited, the O-line is already starting to get banged up; and the Pats are one Gronk/Edleman injury away from being a second-rate Offense.  But for now this was a tremendous win for the Pats, they stay in the race of for the AFC and now start a long and difficult road trip that will go a long way in deciding where the Pats end up in the playoff picture.

 

Oh... and Brady is a superior QB to Manning and Breese and Rodgers and its not a contest.  Sorry I missed that completely needless debate.  

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2 hours ago, Triskjavikson said:

You know who else is looking like an AFC contender now is the Chargers.  They are 4-2, and their losses are to the Chiefs and Rams.  They just hammered Cleveland in Cleveland, and this year that's worth a bit more than it once was. 

Eh...Cleveland has talent this year, but we've still got the worst coaching staff in the NFL.  The Chargers just showed why.  They were ready for everything the Browns threw at them, and after the game Keenan Allen even said the Browns defense didn't throw anything at them they hadn't practiced for.  Their defense is overaggressive and any coach worth half a damn can easily scheme to beat it. 

The offense is also lazy, conservative, and predictable, and barely utilizes some of the best playmakers on the team like Duke and Chubb.  I mean, Chubb ran for two touchdowns and over a hundred yards against Oakland in three carries.  On most teams, that would be enough to get you more carries, especially when the lead back was averaging a paltry 3.4 YPC.  On the Browns, he received exactly three carries each of the next two games too.

The main reason the Browns were looking so good early is because the defense was racking up the turnovers.  That turnover rate was unsustainable, and we saw what happened when it came back down to Earth on Sunday against a good team that was ready for the Browns.  They got eaten alive and exposed.  The real turnaround for Cleveland begins next year when they hire a real coaching staff.  Hue Jackson isn't getting the most out of anyone.  In fact, I'd argue he tends to get the least out of people.  

Normally, I'd be depressed about a loss like that where the team just so obviously got exposed, but we need losses like that to ensure Hue falls on the sword at the end of the year, so I can live with it.  We need his ass gone yesterday.

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15 hours ago, Lord Dracarys said:

The NE/KC game was great. Major detractor was the Patriots fan spitting on  or throwing something at Tyreek Hill after his long touchdown. That right there was some pretty terrible behavior.

Agreed...and there's this, at least.

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Fans around the NFL are expected to abide by a code of conduct when attending games.

One supporter of the New England Patriots crossed the line Sunday night when he tossed beer on Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who had just scored on a 75-yard touchdown catch late in the fourth quarter.

The Patriots acted swiftly Monday morning after identifying the perpetrator and announced the fan was sent a letter of disinvite to all future events at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots also announced the matter was turned over to local law enforcement officials.

 

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3 hours ago, Rockroi said:

Hey folks.  I apologize for not commenting on the thread in the last few weeks.  In all sincerity, I am having trouble coming to the "Song of Ice and Fire" message boards when ... there are no new Song of Ice and Fire books.  Seriously, its been SEVEN YEARS since the last book and we are all still here because, frankly, we are suckers. 

I'm here because there are people whose opinions I value.  It could be a knitting board and if the same crew showed up, I'd ignore the knitting stuff every bit as much as I ignore the ASOIAF book stuff these days.  I'm no sucker - I am getting exactly what I want with my eyes wide open.

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4 minutes ago, Triskjavikson said:

But all that being said Cleveland had been competitive in every game this year until yesterday when the Chargers blew them out.  To a masochistic Cleveland fan this could be seen as evidence that they still suck after all, but I think it can also show that the Chargers are pretty good.  Pittsburgh's not blowing out Cleveland.  Baltimore's not blowing out Cleveland.  etc...

I think the Browns have the talent, but the coaching is going to continue to hold them back until it's addressed in the offseason.  I'd say they could be in line for a Rams-like leap if they make the right hire.  Personally, I'd back up the truck to Lincoln Riley's house and pay him whatever it takes to bring him to Cleveland.  He's already familiar with Mayfield, he's one of the best offensive minds in the game right now, and he's the type of coach who schemes to get the most out of his talent, which is exactly the type of coach the Browns have never had but have desperately needed. 

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7 hours ago, Fez said:

I generally agree with that. But the Jets somehow won yesterday despite kicking seven(!!) field goals.

Eh, that's different. Situation was agreeable to kicking all seven of those FG's. The Jets were the better team in every respect Sunday (not normal for them) and could reliably move the ball. Just stacking onto the lead all half was perfectly appropriate, even if the Colts did appear to make it a game again because you're still in position to answer back for the win. All those attempts were from within 50 yards, so reasonable kicks. And if you miss a 40+ yard field goal up 2 scores that isn't going to break moral. You can just come back next possession STILL having a lead. But to start going for it on 4th down while leading comfortably within easy FG range would be aggression for aggression's sake/

 

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5 minutes ago, Triskjavikson said:

PTI reminds me what while the Chargers have only lost to Rams and Chiefs their wins are against the likes of Niners, Raiders, Browns, and Bills.

 

Anyone remember what Jaylen Ramsey's comments were on Dak Prescott in that rant where he ripped so many QB's?    

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"Dak Prescott, he's good. He's alright. He's okay. I'll put it that way," Ramsey said. "[Ezekiel Elliott] runs that team though. Everything runs around Zeke."

From Dallasnews.com.  I wonder what Ramsey's thoughts are on Cole Beasley?:P

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11 hours ago, Nictarion said:

Lol Tomlin is any better? It’s like the inmates running the asylum over there. Steelers are the most penalized team in the league, and your star players are all me first divas that don’t care about the team. If he had any control at all maybe they could beat the Pats once in a while and actually be contenders. 

Not disagreeing with that. No control over here. Either way, this has gotten off topic. Just think that Burfict once again made a bad hit. 

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2 hours ago, l2 0 5 5 said:

Not disagreeing with that. No control over here. Either way, this has gotten off topic. Just think that Burfict once again made a bad hit. 

Fair enough. Sounds like no suspension though, so the league obviously doesn’t think it was that bad. They never miss a chance to come down hard on him. 

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Rodgers dragged them to another victory, but they barely squeaked a home victory against a weak 49ers (Garopplo injured) just like they squeaked past Chicago at home in the opening game, when Trubiskey couldn’t throw for nuts.  And they lost to a poor Lions and an indifferent Redskins.

Perhaps they’ll get better but I doubt GB are scaring many opponents so far. 

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Just posted this in one of the FF threads, but I think it bears repeating here - the scoring jump this year seems fucking bonkers.

 

I think offenses are just putting up more points this year, yeah, and particularly, quarterbacks are doing well, and we play in 2-QB, 6-pt-passing-TD leagues. There have been multiple weeks this year where I've had 2 30+ point QBs (I'm in two Westeros 2QB leagues), which used to be a huge deal. 

....

Went and checked it at Pro Football Reference, and damn, yeah, scoring is way up. 

 

          Scoring
Rk Year Tms RshTD RecTD PR TD KR TD FblTD IntTD OthTD AllTD 2PM 2PA XPM XPA FGM FGA Sfty Pts
1 2018 32 0.78 1.76 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.01 2.71 0.17 0.29 2.29 2.41 1.72 2.05 0.01 24.1
2 2017 32 0.74 1.45 0.02 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.01 2.39 0.07 0.16 2.08 2.21 1.69 2.01 0.03 21.7
3 2016 32 0.87 1.54 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.01 2.56 0.10 0.21 2.19 2.33 1.66 1.97 0.04 22.7
4 2015 32 0.71 1.64 0.03 0.01 0.06 0.10 0.01 2.56 0.09 0.18 2.24 2.38 1.63 1.93 0.03 22.8
5 2014 32 0.74 1.58 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.02 2.52 0.05 0.11 2.39 2.40 1.62 1.93 0.04 22.6
6 2013 32 0.80 1.57 0.03 0.01 0.06 0.13 0.02 2.62 0.07 0.13 2.46 2.47 1.69 1.95 0.04 23.4
7 2012 32 0.78 1.48 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.14 0.02 2.54 0.06 0.11 2.40 2.41 1.66 1.98 0.03 22.8
8 2011 32 0.78 1.46 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.10 0.01 2.47 0.05 0.10 2.34 2.36 1.64 1.97 0.04 22.2
9 2010 32 0.78 1.47 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.11 0.01 2.48 0.05 0.10 2.35 2.37 1.55 1.88 0.03 22.0
10 2009 32 0.84 1.39 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.09 0.01 2.44 0.05 0.12 2.28 2.31 1.48 1.82 0.03 21.5
11 2008 32 0.93 1.26 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.02 2.43 0.05 0.13 2.29 2.30 1.65 1.95 0.04 22.0
12 2007 32 0.75 1.41 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.10 0.01 2.42 0.06 0.11 2.28 2.30 1.55 1.88 0.04 21.7
13 2006 32 0.83 1.27 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.10 0.01 2.32 0.04 0.07 2.20 2.22 1.50 1.84 0.02 20.7
14 2005 32 0.84 1.26 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.01 2.28 0.05 0.09 2.15 2.18 1.53 1.89 0.02 20.6
15 2004 32 0.81 1.43 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.10 0.01 2.47 0.07 0.14 2.30 2.32 1.37 1.70 0.03 21.5
16 2003 32 0.83 1.28 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.11 0.01 2.35 0.06 0.12 2.17 2.20 1.48 1.86 0.04 20.8
17 2002 32 0.90 1.36 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.01 2.48 0.09 0.16 2.24 2.28 1.44 1.86 0.02 21.7
18 2001 31 0.74 1.28 0.02 0.02 0.07 0.12 0.01 2.26 0.08 0.17 2.03 2.07 1.48 1.93 0.02 20.2
19 2000 31 0.83 1.28 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.10 0.01 2.32 0.07 0.15 2.12 2.14 1.47 1.85 0.03 20.7
20 1999 31 0.73 1.34 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.01 2.33 0.06 0.16 2.12 2.14 1.51 1.94 0.05 20.8

 

So the average over the last 20 seasons (INCLUDING this year) is 21.825 points per game per team. The standard deviation is 1.03 (about 4.7%); this year's average is 24.1 points per game per team, so we're 2.275 points per game per team above average (about 10.4%). That's over 2.2 standard deviations out, which is crazy.

ETA: Also of note - kick return and punt return points are down; the increase is all in the passing offense, which again, is going to show up even harder in our leagues since we have 6pt passing TDs.

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