the mad Cersei's plan to kill Trystane

[rotting sea cow]

I haven't seen a discussion about it so let's start one. We learn about the plan from Doran:

Prince Doran took a jagged breath. "Dorne still has friends at court. Friends who tell us things we were not meant to know. This invitation Cersei sent us is a ruse. Trystane is never meant to reach King's Landing. On the road back, somewhere in the kingswood, Ser Balon's party will be attacked by outlaws, and my son will die. I am asked to court only so that I may witness this attack with my own eyes and thereby absolve the queen of any blame. Oh, and these outlaws? They will be shouting, 'Halfman, Halfman,' as they attack. Ser Balon may even catch a quick glimpse of the Imp, though no one else will." - The Watcher, ADWD

It is very likely that Varys sent some word to Dorne regarding the plan. We never learned it from Cersei PoV, except that "Ser Balon will have another mission".  I believe that the info that Doran got is correct, it fits in Cersei's paranoia that the whole Trystane-Myrcella match is just a convoluted Tyrion's plan to kill her daughter, so the betrothal must be broken at any cost.

Who are these outlaws? I got a notion

"The Stone Crows are still in the kingswood. Shagga seems to have taken a fancy to the place [Bronn said]. Timett led the Burned Men home, with all the plunder they took from Stannis's camp after the fighting. Chella turned up with a dozen Black Ears at the River Gate one morning, but your father's red cloaks chased them off while the Kingslanders threw dung and cheered."- Tyrion I, ASOS

It makes sense because if they were Lannister soldiers posing as outlaws they would have gone directly to Kevan once they hear about Cersei downfall. My take, is that Cersei through Ser Balon or other people told (and paid) the Stone Crows telling them that Tyrion wanted Trystane dead and they would follow because they are loyal towards Tyrion (in their own way).

Now, here come the first problem. The mountain clans are anything but disciplined. They may not recognize Trystane or Doran or even Myrcella. Nobody expect that the Prince of Dorne will travel unprotected so any ensuing battle will have risks and in the chaos anything can happen, even that her own daughter, beloved Myrcella gets killed.

The second problem is that nobody has told the clans of Cersei downfall and that they should better cancel the plan. So, it is probably that the attack will proceed and something bad happens.

[wia]

This plan reminds me so much of Kingswood Brotherhood: Ulmer putting an arrow through the hand of the Kingsguard Lord Commander Gerold Hightower and stealing a kiss from a Elia Martell and stealing her jewels and a chest of coins.

Both plans include an assault of a Martell engaged to a member of the royal family in the Kingswood under protection of a Kingsguard. So I've been wondering if perhaps the original Kingswood Brotherhood had something to do with Martells (seeing how other nobles were kidnapped, but with Elia seems more like a payment and a message) and this plan is not what Cersei is planning at all but rather another one of Doran's ploys to provoke people around into doing what he wants them to do.

Personally I think Trystane would be worth more as a guest hostage in King's Landing than dead. There still plenty of time before Myrcella and Trystane would be expected to marry in which the crown could use the Dorne alliance, while with Trystane dead, there wouldn't be much of an alliance, would there? And Ser Balon's mission might have something to do with Rosamund Lannister that might've been switched with Myrcella after all. Though who knows what Cersei is thinking, I wouldn't be surprised at all if she really wanted to just kill Trystane and be done with it in her current mental condition.

I couldn't say that it's a solid theory by any means. Just a line of thought.

---

Another curious addition is Ser Barristan rescuing Lady Jeyne Swann and her septa from the Kingswood Brotherhood defeating the Smiling Knight and killing Simon Toyne. And Simon entering the tourney at Storm's End as a mystery knight where he was unhorsed by Prince Rhaegar Targaryen. I don't know whether that's just the usual parallels or are we supposed to make something of it.

[Lluewhyn]

I've always thought this plan was batshit insane. This requires men who are likely at risk of death to be putting on a Mummer's show by pretending to work for Tyrion.

Cersei: "Trystane's carriage will likely be well guarded. In the event of your death, make sure you yell "Halfman!" as loud as you can before succumbing. Also, if you are captured, King Tommen will disavow all knowledge of the plan. Be sure to tell them Tyrion was your commander. In the event that you're successful and can kill Trystane, be sure no harm comes to the girl next to him. If you're cut down there, have the graciousness to do it in a way that doesn't scare her. There will also be a Kingsguard right next to both of them who's in on the plan, so don't harm him, even if he's killing you to keep up appearances."

Mercenary: "This job isn't paying enough."

[Legitimate_Bastard]

Urswyck is heading toward Oldtown with some other former Brave Companions. Maybe Qyburn reached out to his old crew? My best guess other than the Mountain Clans. I lean more toward the remaing BC because of the Qyburn connection. Togg Joth, Zollo and Three Toes are still loose too. They could also be the outlaws being as they also share the Qyburn connection.

[John Suburbs]

14 minutes ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

Urswyck is heading toward Oldtown with some other former Brave Companions. Maybe Qyburn reached out to his old crew? My best guess other than the Mountain Clans. I lean more toward the remaing BC because of the Qyburn connection. Togg Joth, Zollo and Three Toes are still loose too. They could also be the outlaws being as they also share the Qyburn connection.

I forgot all about Urswyck. Odd that we have another person connected to Qyburn who looks like a corpse. I'm wondering if future text will link Q to Ser Mandon, who was likely appointed to the KG through Littlefinger's machinations and tried to kill Tyrion on the Blackwater. 

 

[Legitimate_Bastard]

14 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I forgot all about Urswyck. Odd that we have another person connected to Qyburn who looks like a corpse. I'm wondering if future text will link Q to Ser Mandon, who was likely appointed to the KG through Littlefinger's machinations and tried to kill Tyrion on the Blackwater. 

 

Hmmm. The corpse thing. I wonder if Urswyck is undead and being controlled by Qyburn. I already thought Robert Strong is controlled by Qyburn. Cersei is under an illusion of Strongs' loyalty to her. The loyalty is with Qyburn, who is way smarter than he lets on and perhaps even allied with Varys. Now I am off topic.

[argonak]

2 hours ago, Lluewhyn said:

I've always thought this plan was batshit insane. This requires men who are likely at risk of death to be putting on a Mummer's show by pretending to work for Tyrion.

So its definitely a Cersei plan then?

[John Suburbs]

6 minutes ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

Hmmm. The corpse thing. I wonder if Urswyck is undead. 

Mayhaps not completely undead, but an early experiment? About as close to dead as you can get before Qyburn's arts could bring you back?

[Legitimate_Bastard]

1 minute ago, John Suburbs said:

Mayhaps not completely undead, but an early experiment? About as close to dead as you can get before Qyburn's arts could bring you back?

Yes, exactly. I think Qyburn has some control though. Urswyck is always called 'faithful' and I wonder if that implies some control. Plus the corpse description.

[rotting sea cow]

20 hours ago, wia said:

Personally I think Trystane would be worth more as a guest hostage in King's Landing than dead.

Remember that Trystane (and Doran) aren't coming to KL anymore. Lady Nym is coming in Doran's place with Myrcella and 300 seasoned spears.

and again Cersei wants him dead as a way to end the betrothal to Myrcella, but she doesn't want to appear as the murderer. Keeping him as a hostage doesn't achieve that purpose. 

 

18 hours ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

Urswyck is heading toward Oldtown with some other former Brave Companions. Maybe Qyburn reached out to his old crew? My best guess other than the Mountain Clans. I lean more toward the remaing BC because of the Qyburn connection. Togg Joth, Zollo and Three Toes are still loose too. They could also be the outlaws being as they also share the Qyburn connection. 

The thing is that Shagga and his fighters are already there. Of course "the outlaws" could easily be other people, but whilst the Brave Companions would fit the bill, they are hard to locate now, with Urswyck's group somewhere between the Riverlands and the Reach. My take they are also a little Chekov's gun and they are going to play a role in the fall of Oldtown.

[Legitimate_Bastard]

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Remember that Trystane (and Doran) aren't coming to KL anymore. Lady Nym is coming in Doran's place with Myrcella and 300 seasoned spears.

and again Cersei wants him dead as a way to end the betrothal to Myrcella, but she doesn't want to appear as the murderer. Keeping him as a hostage doesn't achieve that purpose. 

 

The thing is that Shagga and his fighters are already there. Of course "the outlaws" could easily be other people, but whilst the Brave Companions would fit the bill, they are hard to locate now, with Urswyck's group somewhere between the Riverlands and the Reach. My take they are also a little Chekov's gun and they are going to play a role in the fall of Oldtown.

Fair enough. My problem with the outlaws being the Mountain Clans over the former BC is their former loyalty to Tyrion. Surely they were aware of Tyrions hatred of Cersei and I wonder if it would affect whether or not they would work for her.

Qyburn and his connection to the BC is what sways me to believe they may be the outlaws. But it could very well be the MC, proximity wise they do have an advantage. We shall see.

[rotting sea cow]

6 minutes ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

Fair enough. My problem with the outlaws being the Mountain Clans over the former BC is their former loyalty to Tyrion. Surely they were aware of Tyrions hatred of Cersei and I wonder if it would affect whether or not they would work for her.

Qyburn and his connection to the BC is what sways me to believe they may be the outlaws. But it could very well be the MC, proximity wise they do have an advantage. We shall see.

My take on the situation is that what exactly convinced the Mountain Clans to work on that plot. Someone showed up with some gold and wine and told them that the Halfman wanted these people killed. Because of their loyalty towards Tyrion, the gold and their complete ignorance of the political situation they went along with the plan.

The main question here is who could have been suitable to contact the mountain men. Certainly not Cersei, for many reasons. Nor Qyburn, because they don't know him. Nor Bronn, because he is at odds with Cersei. Maybe Balon? Or one of the Kettleblacks?  They were in KL at the same time.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

I don’t know if the Stone Crows would need to believe that Tyrion was who was contacting them. Sure, they liked Tyrion, but I think if someone gave them a bag of gold and told them they could keep whatever they took off the corpses, they’d go for it.

That being said, I’m not convinced that either the Stone Crows or the Brave Companions need be involved. Wouldn’t it be safer to have loyal men dressed as bandits? Or at least more disciplined hirelings. For one thing, Mycella’s life is essentially being entrusted to them. Secondly, there’s quite a specific set of plans in place. “Kill X, but not Y, shout this…”. I doubt Cersei would trust the Stone Crows or the Brave Companions to carry off such a thing. I wouldn’t.

[Rufus Snow]

The proposed location for the attack suggests the Stone Crows would be the 'outlaws' in question - otherwise the plan would entail a different bunch of outlaws being sent into an area already known to be occupied by existing outlaws. Sure, nothing could go wrong with that, right?

If Cersei was smart (I know, I know, a long shot...) she would send Bronn down there, as the Stone Crows would accept him as a 'legitimate' stand-in for Tyrion. They wouldn't have any reason to believe it was Cersei setting them up, and Bronn would have the smarts to enact the plan and get out with all objectives fulfilled (almost certainly involving very few Stone Crows surviving....)

As to why Bronn would be willing to do this, it all depends on whether he twigged the truth behind the Stokeworth attack on him earlier. But he seems hungry for more advancement, so yeah, Cersei could persuade him, I'm sure....

I really can't see the Brave Companions in there. Firstly, I think Qyburn has washed his hands of them, they were a stepping stone for him and he really doesn't strike me as 'for old times' sake' sort of guy. And it would just be too complex, logistically, compared to using the people who are already on the scene.

[rotting sea cow]

4 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I don’t know if the Stone Crows would need to believe that Tyrion was who was contacting them. Sure, they liked Tyrion, but I think if someone gave them a bag of gold and told them they could keep whatever they took off the corpses, they’d go for it.

That being said, I’m not convinced that either the Stone Crows or the Brave Companions need be involved. Wouldn’t it be safer to have loyal men dressed as bandits? Or at least more disciplined hirelings. For one thing, Mycella’s life is essentially being entrusted to them. Secondly, there’s quite a specific set of plans in place. “Kill X, but not Y, shout this…”. I doubt Cersei would trust the Stone Crows or the Brave Companions to carry off such a thing. I wouldn’t.

The problem I have with Lannister's soldiers posing as outlaws is whilst certainly they would be more competent for the job, they would be also more politically aware of the situation. Once they learned about Cersei's downfall they would have gone directly to Kevan and cancel the plan.

The mad part is exactly as you describe, you are entrusting the life of your daughter to bandits and anything can happen in the ensuing battle. Ser Balon might not be enough to protect Myrcella and the mountain men might not recognize her or even the target (Trystane)

[rotting sea cow]

4 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

The proposed location for the attack suggests the Stone Crows would be the 'outlaws' in question - otherwise the plan would entail a different bunch of outlaws being sent into an area already known to be occupied by existing outlaws. Sure, nothing could go wrong with that, right?

If Cersei was smart (I know, I know, a long shot...) she would send Bronn down there, as the Stone Crows would accept him as a 'legitimate' stand-in for Tyrion. They wouldn't have any reason to believe it was Cersei setting them up, and Bronn would have the smarts to enact the plan and get out with all objectives fulfilled (almost certainly involving very few Stone Crows surviving....)

As to why Bronn would be willing to do this, it all depends on whether he twigged the truth behind the Stokeworth attack on him earlier. But he seems hungry for more advancement, so yeah, Cersei could persuade him, I'm sure....

I really can't see the Brave Companions in there. Firstly, I think Qyburn has washed his hands of them, they were a stepping stone for him and he really doesn't strike me as 'for old times' sake' sort of guy. And it would just be too complex, logistically, compared to using the people who are already on the scene. 

Bronn would have been the perfect person to convince the Stone Crows, but 1) He is loyal to Tyrion in his own way 2) He understands the political situation much better than the SC so might not be so willing 3) Cersei clearly fucked it up with that clumsy attempt to have him killed.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

13 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

The problem I have with Lannister's soldiers posing as outlaws is whilst certainly they would be more competent for the job, they would be also more politically aware of the situation. Once they learned about Cersei's downfall they would have gone directly to Kevan and cancel the plan.

Perhaps they have? All we know is that Balon is still carrying out those orders when we see him in Dance. We don’t know if all the plans are still in place.

More importantly, that’s hardly something that Cersei would take into account. It would show real forward thinking for her to choose people specifically because they would continue with the plan whether she was in power or not.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

I’d add – Cersei has a pathological distrust of everyone Tyrion worked with, and plenty of others who she somehow manages to link to him in increasingly bizarre ways. She attempts to have Bronn killed because he was Tyrion’s man, and even has the High Septon murdered because Tyrion had him appointed. I very much doubt she would trust the Stone Crows.

[Rufus Snow]

14 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Bronn would have been the perfect person to convince the Stone Crows, but 1) He is loyal to Tyrion in his own way 2) He understands the political situation much better than the SC so might not be so willing 3) Cersei clearly fucked it up with that clumsy attempt to have him killed.

1) He's loyal to whoever rewards him, that's pretty much the first thing he told Tyrion, that's his whole character arc - when the gold stops, so does the service

2) He only needs to understand what Cersei might offer, the politics don't interest him at all - most of his storyline to date has had him sailing against the wind. Remember when Tyrion asked if Bronn would kill a baby without question? He said 'No, I'd ask how much'. That is the measure of Bronn's loyalty, ethics, and willingness to do the dirty jobs.

3) She did - but does Bronn know that?

 

 

[Valyrian Lance]

3 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Perhaps they have? All we know is that Balon is still carrying out those orders when we see him in Dance. We don’t know if all the plans are still in place.

More importantly, that’s hardly something that Cersei would take into account. It would show real forward thinking for her to choose people specifically because they would continue with the plan whether she was in power or not.

Yes agreed. Cersei could very well have entrusted this to Lannister soldiers. They may have sent a message to Kevan and they may not be working for her anymore. Doran might have still received the plan from his inside person, and we would not know the difference.