the mad Cersei's plan to kill Trystane

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Yes, it is convoluted but so are all Cersei's plans in AFFC. See the plan to kill Jon Snow and you will facepalm.

As an aside, there are also similarities between her plot against Margaery and the plot against Dorne. In both, Cersei seems to mistake technical deniability with plausible deniability. With Margaery, she seems to think that because nobody can prove she was behind Margaery’s arrest, then that is enough to protect her from any potential blow back, which is obviously rubbish. Anyone with half a brain would have suspected her involvement. Similar with Dorne. The idea that Doran or anyone else wouldn’t suspect her involvement in the attack is ridiculous.     

[Lluewhyn]

8 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Sure, I was just reemphasising that point.

Definitely, though at least with the Robert plan, if it didn't work, it wouldn't come back on her. She also had a clear reason to do it.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't she only go with the plan after Ned told her he knew about the Twincest, which may have been after they heard he was going after a boar instead?

 

Sorry for the first part, was trying to say I agreed, and then moved on. I knew it was going to be badly worded. My apologies.

For the second part, I'm saying that the plan to kill Robert through drinking wasn't a bad one, it's not taking Ned's offer to flee because she's relying on that plan to succeed that's the bad part. Basically, 5%(or whatever) chance of plan working to kill Robert with complete plausible deniability isn't bad, but risking her neck (and her childrens') by sticking around on those odds is suicidal. I think you could interpret her "You win or you die" as affirming a kind of courage, but I also think she's just that over-confident.

She sends Lancel with the dreamwine along with Robert when they depart for the hunt as he's Robert's squire*. Ned confronts her while Robert's on the hunt.

* At that point, she knows Ned is barking up the same tree as Jon Arryn, knows that Ned has the ability to influence Robert, and has already started plans in motion to kill Robert, beginning with the attempt in the melee. She hasn't waited until hearing the Ned discussion.

 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

3 minutes ago, Lluewhyn said:

Sorry for the first part, was trying to say I agreed, and then moved on. I knew it was going to be badly worded. My apologies.

For the second part, I'm saying that the plan to kill Robert through drinking wasn't a bad one, it's not taking Ned's offer to flee because she's relying on that plan to succeed that's the bad part. Basically, 5%(or whatever) chance of plan working to kill Robert with complete plausible deniability isn't bad, but risking her neck (and her childrens') by sticking around on those odds is suicidal. I think you could interpret her "You win or you die" as affirming a kind of courage, but I also think she's just that over-confident.

She sends Lancel with the dreamwine along with Robert when they depart for the hunt as he's Robert's squire*. Ned confronts her while Robert's on the hunt.

* At that point, she knows Ned is barking up the same tree as Jon Arryn, knows that Ned has the ability to influence Robert, and has already started plans in motion to kill Robert, beginning with the attempt in the melee. She hasn't waited until hearing the Ned discussion.

Fair points. I wonder if she had a plan b if the strongwine failed? Who knows. You're right though, it seems a bit precarious a plan.

I seem to recall Varys saying that it was Ned warning Cersei that led to Robert's death. If that's the case, then I think word (possibly with the wine) was sent to Lancel after the conversation in the godswood.

[Lluewhyn]

2 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I seem to recall Varys saying that it was Ned warning Cersei that led to Robert's death. If that's the case, then I think word (possibly with the wine) was sent to Lancel after the conversation in the godswood.

I've heard one person explaining this as Varys deliberately gaslighting Ned, because he wants Ned to feel guilty, take the Black, and get out of the way of the true conflict between Stannis and the Lannisters. I think you could also view it as GRRM kind of papering over the precariousness of the plan.

First, I find it unlikely that Robert's squire is just sitting around KL when so many other characters of importance went on the hunt. I think while it would be a reasonable possibility for someone with a few ravens to be on the hunt, I'm not sure they'd send one back just to announce the hunt had changed. Even so, that would also require Lancel to track down the mobile hunt, which would take days if not weeks. My presumption is that if they heard rumors of a boar in the area, that means they're probably encountering it in the next few hours.

Even in the scenario where Lancel is cooling his heels in KL, he still has to find Robert in a reasonable amount of time, get him drunk in a very specific level(drunk enough to be impaired, not drunk enough to be incapacitated), and for no one else to intervene. There's still a lot of uncertain variables in that scenario for Cersei to risk sticking around.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

14 hours ago, Lluewhyn said:

First, I find it unlikely that Robert's squire is just sitting around KL when so many other characters of importance went on the hunt.

A messenger could be sent to Lancel with strongwine and instructions.

14 hours ago, Lluewhyn said:

I think while it would be a reasonable possibility for someone with a few ravens to be on the hunt, I'm not sure they'd send one back just to announce the hunt had changed.

They wouldn't need ravens, just a rider. They did hear word that the hunt had changed. How we don't know. It was a large enterprise, I expect there were people running back and forth from the hunt to the Red Keep constantly.

14 hours ago, Lluewhyn said:

My presumption is that if they heard rumors of a boar in the area, that means they're probably encountering it in the next few hours.

Not necessarily. They were hunting a specific boar, based on rumour. Could have taken days (and if I recall, we hear via Ned that they had gone boar hunting days before Robert was killed, but I don't know).

[wia]

I think that strongwine plot couldn't even be qualified as a murder even though characters in the book think of it as one.

I mean come on, it was:
- be an alcoholic (Robert)
- hunt while drunk (Robert)
- provide fortified strongwine instead of regular strongwine when requested (Cersei)
- not realize the wine is fortified, when the taste is clearly different (Robert)
- continue to get even more drunk (Robert)
- order people around you to not interfere while you hunt the boar while being drunk (Robert)
- fail the hunting and get killed by the boar (Robert)

If you're a stupid alcoholic who likes to do dangerous things while drunk, you're bound to get yourself killed, fortified strongwine or not. Sure, Cersei gave him a helping hand, but the situation was fully in Robert's control. 

[Rufus Snow]

15 minutes ago, wia said:

I mean come on, it was:
- be an alcoholic (Robert)
- hunt while drunk (Robert)
- provide fortified strongwine instead of regular strongwine when requested (Cersei)
- not realize the wine is fortified, when the taste is clearly different (Robert)
- continue to get even more drunk (Robert)
- order people around you to interfere while you hunt the boar while being drunk (Robert)
- fail the hunting and get killed by the boar (Robert)

Put like that it does have a certain Keystone Kops quality to it...

[wia]

6 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

Put like that it does have a certain Keystone Kops quality to it...

The melee plot even more so. Ordering your husband to not participate in a melee where people die all the time = murder, really? Varys claimed she had someone to kill Roberts in the melee, but who would that be? - Her best bet as far as being able to kill Robert and willing to do it to would be Jaime, but that would bring trouble. What other man strong enough to off Robert in a melee and not connected to Lannisters did she have then?

This is rather silly if you look at the bare facts. I think Cersei was probably habitually instigating Robert to go get himself killed this way. And she lucked out that he died just when she really needed it.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

25 minutes ago, wia said:

I think that strongwine plot couldn't even be qualified as a murder even though characters in the book think of it as one.

I mean come on, it was:
- be an alcoholic (Robert)
- hunt while drunk (Robert)
- provide fortified strongwine instead of regular strongwine when requested (Cersei)
- not realize the wine is fortified, when the taste is clearly different (Robert)
- continue to get even more drunk (Robert)
- order people around you to not interfere while you hunt the boar while being drunk (Robert)
- fail the hunting and get killed by the boar (Robert)

If you're a stupid alcoholic who likes to do dangerous things while drunk, you're bound to get yourself killed, fortified strongwine or not. Sure, Cersei gave him a helping hand, but the situation was fully in Robert's control. 

I'm no lawyer, but I think intent is a factor in murder. If you purposely attempt to put someone in a dangerous situation, and they die from it, there's a clear culpability there. If in modern times, you plied a known alcoholic with vodka, then helped him to his car, in order to claim on the life insurance, I don't think it would be written off as one of those things.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

1 minute ago, wia said:

The melee plot even more so. Ordering your husband to not participate in a melee where people die all the time = murder, really? Varys claimed she had someone to kill Roberts in the melee, but who would that be? - Her best bet as far as being able to kill Robert and willing to do it to would be Jaime, but that would bring trouble. What other man strong enough to off Robert in a melee and not connected to Lannisters did she have then?

I imagine there could be all sorts of characters she could induce to do it. There were sellswords and free riders in the melee, and probably any number of unsavoury knights.

Jaime wasn't in the melee I don't think, after having his noggin bashed by the Hound.

[wia]

5 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I'm no lawyer, but I think intent is a factor in murder. If you purposely attempt to put someone in a dangerous situation, and they die from it, there's a clear culpability there. If in modern times, you plied a known alcoholic with vodka, then helped him to his car, in order to claim on the life insurance, I don't think it would be written off as one of those things.

In a lot (if not most) countries, if you plied your husband, a known alcoholic, with vodka in order to get all the marital property and then then he chose by himself to drive his car and died, while you weren't even present when he was getting in, there'd be no case. Giving alcohol to a drunk is not a crime and you can't hold other people accountable for someone's decision to drunk drive.
Sure, you get the marital property. But then, should you get your husband who doesn't drink but likes to speed a bike as a present with intent to get the marital property, is that also a murder? - The bikes are dangerous and have a high mortality rate, the husband loves dangerous driving. I don't think so - the decision to speed was his own.

 

8 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I imagine there could be all sorts of characters she could induce to do it. There were sellswords and free riders in the melee, and probably any number of unsavoury knights.

Jaime wasn't in the melee I don't think, after having his noggin bashed by the Hound.

Would many of them be able to off Robert though? - He's not in his prime, but he isn't weak either. Would Cersei just hire a random one hoping he succeeds and if no, he dies. In person?
Not impossible, of course. But Robert has enough enemies on his own. I think chances are there are people in the realm and possibly in that melee who would gladly kill Robert without them having anything to do with Cersei.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

2 minutes ago, wia said:

In a lot (if not most) countries, if you plied your husband, a known alcoholic, with vodka in order to get all the marital property and then then he chose by himself to drive his car and died, while you weren't even present when he was getting in, there'd be no case. Giving alcohol to a drunk is not a crime and you can't hold other people accountable for someone's decision to drunk drive.

If a plot were uncovered where his death was the plan, I think there would be consequences.

3 minutes ago, wia said:

Would many of them be able to off Robert though? - He's not in his prime, but he isn't weak either. Would Cersei just hire a random one hoping he succeeds and if no, he dies. In person?

The plan wasn't for someone to challenge Robert to single combat in the melee. All they'd have to do is catch him with a blow from behind or something. Yes, it's risky, but I think there would be plenty of professionals capable of it.

[Springwatch]

On 10/9/2018 at 2:07 PM, Lluewhyn said:

I've always thought this plan was batshit insane. This requires men who are likely at risk of death to be putting on a Mummer's show by pretending to work for Tyrion.

Cersei: "Trystane's carriage will likely be well guarded. In the event of your death, make sure you yell "Halfman!" as loud as you can before succumbing. Also, if you are captured, King Tommen will disavow all knowledge of the plan. Be sure to tell them Tyrion was your commander. In the event that you're successful and can kill Trystane, be sure no harm comes to the girl next to him. If you're cut down there, have the graciousness to do it in a way that doesn't scare her. There will also be a Kingsguard right next to both of them who's in on the plan, so don't harm him, even if he's killing you to keep up appearances."

Mercenary: "This job isn't paying enough."

This.

Is there any reason we have to believe this was a plan at all? It puts Myrcella at a lot of risk, and Cersei is very sensitive about threats to her children, so...?

Maybe Doran just made it all up - he had the Sandsnakes eating out of his hand with this story.

[Rufus Snow]

6 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Maybe Doran just made it all up - he had the Sandsnakes eating out of his hand with this story.

Can't have been entirely made up, or Balon Swann would have no reason to start looking shifty and uncomfortable when the route change was suggested.

 

Just because a plan is rubbish, doesn't mean it's not a plan

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

16 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Maybe Doran just made it all up - he had the Sandsnakes eating out of his hand with this story.

I thought this...

6 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

Can't have been entirely made up, or Balon Swann would have no reason to start looking shifty and uncomfortable when the route change was suggested.

...and then thought this. Hivemind.

Still, there may be other reasons Swann feels shifty. There may have been a plan, just not that plan. Seems unlikely though, as any plan Cersei had would have been lethal and crazy in some manner, so why make up that one?

[wia]

30 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

If a plot were uncovered where his death was the plan, I think there would be consequences.

You see, I think it would count if, say, Cersei came up with that boar, told Robert about it, arranged the hunt, encouraged him to personally kill the boar an then got him drunk. Because it was the boar that killed him. There's the plot.

Giving Robert somewhat stronger alcohol when he asks for alcohol does not directly lead to his death. He didn't die of alcohol poisoning. He died because he himself wanted to kill the boar and ordered everyone around him to not interfere. Robert died due to the choices he himself made, not due Cersei's plot.

It'd be actually easier to charge Barristan with gross negligence manslaughter than charge Cersei with anything at all. Since by our modern laws there was a failure to perform a duty owed, which lead to death, arguing that Robert was too intoxicated to give any reliable orders. Though it's not the case in terms of ASOIAF laws ofc.

There might be countries where she might've been charged, I certainly didn't read every single law code in the world.

30 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

The plan wasn't for someone to challenge Robert to single combat in the melee. All they'd have to do is catch him with a blow from behind or something. Yes, it's risky, but I think there would be plenty of professionals capable of it.

I think that killing Robert in single combat would be way easier than killing him in a melee. He happens to have a quite good track record in melee-like battle and there's nothing known of his 1 on 1 challenges. Surely if it was easy to off him in a battle we'd have King Rhaegar.

But anyway this is going off topic. 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

22 minutes ago, wia said:

Giving Robert somewhat stronger alcohol when he asks for alcohol does not directly lead to his death. He didn't die of alcohol poisoning. He died because he himself wanted to kill the boar and ordered everyone around him to not interfere. Robert died due to the choices he himself made, not due Cersei's plot.

That would be a reasonable defence, but if Lancel said "Cersei told me to give King Robert stronger wine, so he'd be plastered and the boar might kill him", it's hard to say she isn't culpable. Also, making the wine extra strong is essentially spiking his drink.

24 minutes ago, wia said:

I think that killing Robert in single combat would be way easier than killing him in a melee. He happens to have a quite good track record in melee-like battle and there's nothing known of his 1 on 1 challenges. Surely if it was easy to off him in a battle we'd have King Rhaegar.

I'm not saying it would be easy, but possible. Skirting the edges, biding your time, then getting at him from behind is plausible.

 

[Lluewhyn]

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I thought this...

...and then thought this. Hivemind.

Still, there may be other reasons Swann feels shifty. There may have been a plan, just not that plan. Seems unlikely though, as any plan Cersei had would have been lethal and crazy in some manner, so why make up that one?

There's two clues in the text that Doran is speaking the truth. The shiftiness you mentioned above, and there's also a Cersei IV in AFFC:

"To be sure." A tiresome creature, this prince. "His long wait is almost done. I am sending Balon Swann to Sunspear, to deliver him the head of Gregor Clegane." Ser Balon would have another task as well, but that part was best left unsaid.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

18 minutes ago, Lluewhyn said:

There's two clues in the text that Doran is speaking the truth. The shiftiness you mentioned above, and there's also a Cersei IV in AFFC:

"To be sure." A tiresome creature, this prince. "His long wait is almost done. I am sending Balon Swann to Sunspear, to deliver him the head of Gregor Clegane." Ser Balon would have another task as well, but that part was best left unsaid.

Yup, I thought of that too, though again, she doesn't say what task.

[Springwatch]

So there's problems with either scenario. The plot is unlikely to succeed and Cersei is unlikely to risk Myrcella. On the other hand we have a slightly shifty Kingsguard with a shady task.