Military Strengths-2 and More!

[Corvo the Crow]

So since the previous thread got locked here, is military strengths, again!

I'll be gradually adding the information from the old thread and some new ones to the first post as it's very time consuming to find the sources of the information.

Also I really think a topic on military should be pinned as there are many    of these threads popping from time to time.

 

NUMBERS

 

Crownlands:

 

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• Little over 10000.

 

1. Islands of the Gullet, Bar Emmons and Masseys together have fewer than 1500 men. Celtigars have some hundreds, so are Velaryons. Dragonstone historically had a 430 men garrison.
2. Duskendale possibly has ~1600 men (Duskendale and Maidenpool together has 3000 men and Duskendale is the bigger town.)
3. After calling his banners, Aemond one eye set out to Harrenhal at the head of a force 4000 strong, leaving behind hundreds of Gold Cloaks, perhaps even more than a thousand. Greens had lost 800 men earlier, at Rook's Rest.
4. Until recently King's Landing had 2000 guards. It reached it's peak at 6000.
5. Against Aegon, Maegor had 5000 men gathered in King's Landing under the command of Ser Davos Darklyn. This may include 600 sellswords he had earlier.
6. Against Jahaerys, Maegor has near 4000 men, of which 400 are knights, from a score of houses; House Towers of Harrenhal and Crownlands houses.

Sources: World Book, Princess and the Queen, ASOS Davos IV, ASOS Davos V, Book of Swords

 

Dorne:

 

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• Possibly 15000; They have raised 10000 during Robert's Rebellion and it is the least populous kingdom.

1. Yronwoods: They were the most powerful kingdom in Dorne prior to Nymeria and of the two Dornish hosts waiting in the passes, one is described as Doran's and the other as Yronwood's.

Sources: ASOS Jaime V, AFFC The Captain of Guards, TWOIAF

Iron Islands:

 

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• ~400 ships and ~15000 fighting men; Most of the ships are longships but there are 100 Iron Fleet ships, three times the size of a longship and comparable to smaller war galleys(average galley is 100 oars with some having fewer than 80) with a few falling some where in between, like Theon's ship (50 oars)

1. Main branch of the Harlaws have more than 40 ships with mostly boys as crewmen

Sources: ACOK Theon II, AFFC Cersei II, ADWD Iron Suitor

 

North:

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30000 men during the conquest

19500 men in Robb's army and later, over 8000 men raised to date from many houses, including clans.

1. Boltons: 400-600 men with Ramsay (ACOK Theon VI), which he's been massing in the Dreadfort lands for a long time (ACOK II)
2. Cerwyns: 300 with Rodrik(ACOK Bran VI) of which at least 24 are lancers (ACOK Bran II)
3. Karstarks: near 2000 foot and 300 horse with Robb. (AGOT Bran IV) ~200 men with Rodrik. (ACOK Theon VI). 400 spearmen, 40 archers and 12 lances "joining Stannis. (ADWD The Sacrifice)
4. Manderlys:1500 men with Robb of which some 20 are knights with as many squires and 200 other horsemen, the rest is foot( AGOT Catelyn VIII). Near 300 men with Rodrik, knights and likely siege engineers. (ACOK Theon VI). 300 men with Wyman going to Winterfell, 100 are knights.(ADWD Ghost in Winterfell)
5. Starks: 200 Garrison depleted by Robb and Ned.(AGOT BRAN VII) Later 600 men taken by Rodrik, men from the garrison and the nearest holdfasts. (ACOK Bran VI)
6. Umbers: 800 men with Hother and Mors. at least 300 spears and at least 100 bowmen.

 

Reach:

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• Possibly 70-80000 They have raised 90000 men in Wot5K together with Stormlanders and this number doesn't include some Reach lords who are yet to join or some Stormlanders(Dondarrion and Swann) who have decided not to.

 

1. Hightowers have more than 9000 men during Dance of the Dragons
2. Oldtown has thousands of defenders.
3. Florents have 2000 men, more than 750 of this is cavalry
4. Tarlys possibly have ~2500 men during Vulture King. This seems to be very much in line with two other nearby marcher houses; Caron and Dondarrion, who have raised together 4000 foot and 800 horsemen
5. Stormlands as a whole had fewer than 10000 men during the conquest but this number may be without some of the Marchers (Dorne takes oppurtunity and attacks but Bastard of Blackhaven dies fighting against Orys' forces)
6. Redwynes have 200 warships Thse would be mostly, if not entirely regular war galleys of 100 or so oars since the ship they are making for Joffrey has only 200 oars.
7. Garlan and Willas can raise another 20000 in a moon's turn but these could be boys as we see in the North.

Sources: Princess and the Queen, ACOK Prologue, ASOS Davos IV TWOIAF

 

Riverlands:

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• At least16000, perhaps as many as 24000 at the start of War of the Five kings and this is with a short time to prepare. Later on some lords have raised more men.

1. Even affter suffering great losses at the start of Wot5K, Riverlands still has more than 15000 men left, of which 4000 is cavalry. During the Dance they had 6700 after some unknown casualties, possibly around 7500 before that.
2. At the end of the Wot5K Bracken's siege Raventree Hall with 500 men
3. Despite his griveous losses at the start Edmure still has 3000 cavalry and 8000 foot without the Freys.
4. Blackwoods initially had 300 longbowmen during the Dance.
5. Freys have started with 3000 foot and 1000 cavalry, after Red Wedding they have raised up to 2000 more infantry.
6. Mallisters seem to be able to raise a second levy of 1000 men (at most) joining Robb. Their first raise would obviously be more powerful.
7. Mootons had 100 knights during the Dance of Dragons. For comparison Freys had 200 knights and 600 foot during the same time.
8. Harrenhal possibly has fewer than 2000 (Florent lands being the "richest fruit after Blackwater)
9. Darry possibly has fewer than 2000 (Same as Harrenhal)

 

Stormlands:

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• : Possibly 20000, considering Dorne is the least populous kingdom with at least 10000 men and  Crownlands also has ~10000

1. During Aegon's Conquest, Stormlanders have fewer than 10000 men but this number may not include some Marcher Lords.
2. Stormlands is thinly peopled compared to Vale, Riverlands and Westerlands.
3. Caron and Dondarrion together had 4000 foot and 800 cavalry during Vulture Hunt.
4. Tarth should be in the range of hundreds, as Velaryons are stated to be more powerful than them (in Princes and Queen)
5. Morrigens possibly have fewer than 2000 (Florent lands being the "richest fruit" after Blackwater)
6. Carons possibly have fewer than 2000 (Same as above)

Sources: World Book, Dunk and Egg Novellas, Princess and the Queen.

 

Vale:

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• Possibly a lot less than 40000. They had, during the wars for the Sisters, hundreds of ships, at least 100 of them warships.

1. Six lords declarant can together raise 20000 men, which Petyr Baelish isn't able to match.
2. Sisters: During the Rape of the Sisters, 3000 sisterman warriors were executed in a single day.
3. Garrison of Eyrie is 20 men, of Gates of the Moon is fewer than 300
4. Royces: They are the most powerful in the Vale, with vassals located as far as Coldwater. They obviously have more than 3300 average of the declarants.

Sources: World Book, AFFC Sansa I

Westerlands:

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• At the start of the War of the Five Kings, After preparing for a while Tywin had ~35000  which includes many sellsword companies and seemingly most of the available men. Without the sellswords they have perhaps as many as 30000 men. During Reyne-Tarbeck Rebellion, Lords of Westerlands raise ~21000/25000/29000 depending whether Tywin had three four or five times as many men as Reynes' 2000.

1. Tywin's 20K and Jaime's 14-15K together has 10000-10500 cavalry and 24500-25000 Infantry. These numbers include many sellswords and at least 2200 of the horse (just from Tywin's army) is formed of non-knights.
2. Lefford, Lydden and Serrett with all their retainers have 300 heavy horse.
3. During Reyne-Tarbeck Rebellion Tywin had 3000 infantry and 500 cavalry at the start, which very likely included men from Lannisport which is less than a mile away.
4. 2000 men (200 of which are knights) Reynes had without their allies and most of their vassals is less than a quarter of their possible strength, so possibly 9000 with allies and vassals.
5. Tywin is first joined by Lords Marbrand, Ashemark and a dozen smaller lords, which bring his numbers to 3-5 times of Reyne's 2000, meaning they brought 2500-6500
6. After the arrival of the Lords Westerling, Banefort, Plumm, and Stackspear with their levies, Tywin's host has swollen to twice it's original size, meaning they brought 6000-10000.

Sources: World Book, Agot Tyrion VIII

 

Wildings:

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Their entire populace is around 30000 people when Jon arrives; Most of the Wildlings, even those living close to the Wall, left their villages to Join Mance. Scouts sent from Fist of the First Men estimate their strength to be 30000 or more which is later confirmed by Jon once he gets there. If same rate as Drogo's Khalasar applies they should have 12000 men in fighting age, some of their women also fight; of the 1000 people Stannis took captive, 300 are men of fighting age, among the 700 left, 50-100 are spearwives. If the same rate applies overall, they should have  1300-2600 Spearwives in total.

1. Thenns have at least 300 warriors; 100 that climbed the wall and 200 of Sigorn
2. Tormund alone has 200 giants and 80 mammoths in his group of ~3000 not including those who died.
3. Mance lost a dozen giants trying to attack the Wall.
4. Mother Mole is said to have half as many people as Tormund
5. "A Dour Warrior" leads hundreds to Valley of Thenn
6. Weeper had at least 300 fighters with him with no information on non-fighters.

 

 

 

• Re

 

 

EQUIPMENT:

 

Courtesy of @Trefayne

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Some information on equipment and also equipment by regions:

Aketon, Gambeson, Haqueton - A thick coat of the Middle Ages, made of leather, cloth or linen stuffed and quilted up to twenty-five layers. Worn as an arming coat under armor or as armor itself.

Brigandine - A form of body armor from the Middle Ages. It is a garment, generally of heavy cloth, canvas or leather, with small square or rectangular steel plates riveted to the inside of the fabric and lined. It is always worn over a gambeson (or like garment) and it was not long before this form of protection was regularly used by common soldiers ranging from simple infantry and yeoman archers to squires. It was most frequently used by men-at-arms and other professional soldiers. These wore a brigandine, often along with heavy leather vambraces that would be worn on the forearms and greaves/half greaves that were worn on the calves, as well as a helm and shield. Common soldiers were known to scavenge bits of armor from battlefields to complete or better their kits, so odd bits of plate and mail armor could also find their way into their possession.

Ringmail - A form of body armor from the Middle Ages. It is a garment, generally of heavy cloth, canvas or leather, with copper, bronze, iron or steel rings sewn onto the surface of the fabric. It is comparable to a brigandine in protection, is always worn over a gambeson (or like garment) and would be combined with same accessories as a brigandine.

Mail - Mail (chainmail) is a type of medieval armor constructed of interlocking, riveted rings of metal woven into a tunic or shirt that covers the body to provide protection in battle. It is best against slashing attacks from weapons like swords or axes, but does less well with piercing attacks like a sword or spear thrust or an arrow/bolt. There are different weights of mail depending on the gauge of wire used to make the links and the desired purpose of the mail. On average, if the coat is to be used by itself, then a thicker gauge wire is used and if it is to be used as a supplement to plate armor, a thinner gauge will be used to save weight.

Coif - A coif is a type of mail armor which covers the head. The flexible hood of mail extended to cover the throat, neck and the top part of the shoulders. Coifs (and pretty much all helms) are always accompanied by an arming cap made of thick wool fabric and stuffed with old rags or straw which was worn underneath, and are almost always worn with a helm over them.

Bishop's Mantle - A piece of mail armor which covers the neck, shoulders, upper chest and upper back. It can be worn alone or as a supplement to a brigandine, habergeon or padded armor.

Camail - A piece of mail descending from a helmet and protecting the neck and shoulders. These are generally worn with Norman style or other half-helms.

Aventail - A piece of mail descending from a helmet and protecting the lower face, neck and shoulders. These are generally worn with Viking style or other half-helms with eye guards.

Chausses - Mail armor pantaloons, usually with attached foot coverings worn to protect the legs and feet. Always worn with a hauberk or habergeon and coif and sometimes combined with plate armor greaves and cuisses (thigh guards).

Hauberk - The hauberk is a type of mail armor tunic which is thigh or knee length, usually with a split in the front and back to the groin so the wearer could ride a horse. The sleeves are traditionally fully arm's length, but occasionally would be shorter. Hauberks are always worn over a gambeson (or like garment). While this coat of mail was available to anyone who could afford one, it was usually a knightly possession in its day and normally incorporated a coif and helm (and possibly a great helm as well), chausses, leather and mail gauntlets and shield. Plate armor can also be added to it in various places to reinforce the wearer. In this case, it is referred to as "mail with plate".

Habergeon - A waist length coat or "shirt" of mail in the Middle Ages was called a habergeon (byrnie is a regional Scottish term). Most often, but not always, it has sleeves that go no lower than the elbow. It is always worn over a gambeson (or like garment) and is often combined with a coif or bishop's mantle, helm and shield. Professional soldiers who could afford mail often went with this option for its greater mobility and less cost than a full hauberk. Optional leather or plate armor vambraces and/or greaves/half greaves can also be included.

Plate Armor - Plate armor is a system of interlocking and overlapping pieces of thin plate steel shaped in the form of each body part it needs to protect. A complete suit covered one from head to toe. It is greatly superior to mail in all respects defensively and replaced mail as the knightly armor of its day, but visibility and ventilation are worse because of the close-helm. Plate armor is worn with a gambeson (or like garment), padded leggings and sections of light mail to offer extra protection at breachable areas such as the waist, buttocks and upper thighs, head and neck (coif) and the gusset areas (under the arms and behind the knees). A shield is often used, but isn't always deemed necessary.

 

North:

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1. Boltons:  Fur, grey mail and iron half-helms. (ACOK Arya X, ASOS Catelyn VII, ADWD Reek III)
2. Karstarks: Mail hauberks or shirts of sewn rings (ringmail), cloaks of fur and wool. (ASOS Catelyn III)
3. Starks: Guards with grey mail and leather, mail coifs, steel helms, heavy wool cloaks colored grey with white satin borders; Jory wears blue-grey plate armor with thin grey cloak (AGOT Sansa II); Silvery mail and long grey cloaks when they are going with Beric.
4. Stouts: Leather brigandines with gold and russet cloaks. (ADWD Reek III)

 

Riverlands:

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1. Freys: Soldiers going of to battle and men in the crossroads inn all wear blue steel mail, silvery grey capes; Ryman Frey was "clad in steel from head to heel", implying full plate armor. (ASOS Catelyn VII)
2. Pipers: Mail.

 

Vale:

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1. Arryn: Household knights escorting Lysa wear mail and plate. (ASOS Sansa VI); Guards wear silvery mail and sky blue cloaks.

 

Westerlands:

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1. Lannisters: Guards wear mail and leather, crimson/red cloaks, steel codpieces, leather pants, greaves, gauntlets and steel caps with nasal guards and lion crests but no visors.

 

 

 

 

 

[Corvo the Crow]

I'm also reserving this second post if it's alright as I have something  in mind for it.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Reach -100k

Westerlands - 50k

North - 40-45k

Riverlands - 40-45k

Vale - 40-45k

Stormlands - 30-35k

Dorne - 25-30k

Iron Isles - 20-25k

Crownlands - 10-15k

That should do as a good starting summary for this thread.

 

[Ran]

Except for where it is wrong.

[Free Northman Reborn]

3 minutes ago, Ran said:

Except for where it is wrong.

It’s the closest to official figures ever provided by George. As you would well know.

[Ran]

Not true. The closest to an official list he had had rather a lot more Dornish troops.

[Free Northman Reborn]

7 minutes ago, Ran said:

Not true. The closest to an official list he had had rather a lot more Dornish troops.

It was the closest to an official list of what the rest of Westeros generally believes each region’s strength to be. And indeed, the rest of Westeros believes Dorne has a strength of 50k.

[Ran]

So the list is basically everything a maester might believe, except for Dorne, but it's actually a list I put together based on the facts I had on hand and George basically said it was a reasonable guess (I actually don't recall if he actually said it's what a maester might guess, but maybe he did).

I guess if we're summarizing facts, it's worth reminding people that GRRM actually stated that he saw the North, the Vale, and Dorne as about equal. Not some maester -- him. He may of course have changed his mind since... but what if he didn't, and Dorne is indeed about as strong as the North and the Vale?  Maybe the North and the Vale are also at the 25-30k area.

[Free Northman Reborn]

24 minutes ago, Ran said:

So the list is basically everything a maester might believe, except for Dorne.

I guess if we're summarizing facts, it's worth reminding people that GRRM actually stated that he saw the North, the Vale, and Dorne as about equal. Not some maester -- him. He may of course have changed his mind since... but what if he didn't, and Dorne is indeed about as strong as the North and the Vale?

Yes to your first paragraph. The Maesters HAVE to be fooled about Dorne’s numbers too, else the deception would be impossible to maintain, given that every major lord in the Realm has a Citadel trained maester.

As for the second paragraph, Martin HAS to have changed his mind on Dorne since that comparison to the North and the Vale. We see in that same quote that he refers to the Stormlands rather disparagingly compared to the other regions, (lots of rocks and rain etc) suggesting that it lies lower than them in population. But since Dorne is confirmed as the least populous kingdom now, we can safely place the Stormlands above it in terms of strength. Making it logically impossible for the North and Vale to be on Dorne’s level while maintaining the Stormlands’ lesser stature against the other two.

The sparse population of the Stormlands is referenced again more recently in the Worldbook (although I don’t know if that was a bit of well intended speculative “fleshing out” by yourself, or based on a direct quote from Martin).

And also, there is only one region with a rather detailed backstory for having a deliberately “misrepresented” strength. And that is Dorne.

It implies that George changed his mind on Dorne, and Dorne only. And devised a plausible way to explain its revised strength.

[Bernie Mac]

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

As for the second paragraph, Martin HAS to have changed his mind on Dorne since that comparison to the North and the Vale.

Has to? Come on!

The SSM on the strength of the regions was written in 2002, it is hard to believe that he did not have a clear idea of Dorne at that point. 

 

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

We see in that same quote that he refers to the Stormlands rather disparagingly compared to the other regions, (lots of rocks and rain etc) suggesting that it lies lower than them in population.

It suggests that the region is poor and does not have a lot to offer. There is nothing from his quote that gives us an idea on population. 

Though what real difference does it make if the Stormlands has 1,000, 10,000 or even a 100,000 more people than Dorne?

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

 But since Dorne is confirmed as the least populous kingdom now,

It is not confirmed. Unless Doran has far better information on his neighbours than they do on him it is not confirmed but suggested. He is trying to scare his daughter on the futility of war. 

Maybe it is Dorne, maybe it is the Iron Islands or Stormlands, it is really unclear. 

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

we can safely place the Stormlands above it in terms of strength.

Yeah, that is not safe at all. Military is just as much determined on wealth as it is population. 

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

Making it logically impossible for the North and Vale to be on Dorne’s level while maintaining the Stormlands’ lesser stature against the other two.

Can you quote from the author where he states the Stormlands are lesser in  regards the North or Vale?

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The sparse population of the Stormlands is referenced again more recently in the Worldbook (although I don’t know if that was a bit of well intended speculative “fleshing out” by yourself, or based on a direct quote from Martin).

The world book highlights it is sparse in comparison to the Reach, Riverlands and West. No other region. 

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

It impliea that George changed his mind on Dorne, and Dorne only. And devised a plausible way to explain its revised strength.

Well no, GRRM  may have always intended for it to be like that, a more interesting revelation. 

At 2002 you or I have no idea what GRRM meant and given there has been zero indication in any of the books that the North or Vale can generate a 50k army nothing he has said about Dorne in that SSM can be shown as false.

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Has to? Come on!

The SSM on the strength of the regions was written in 2002, it is hard to believe that he did not have a clear idea of Dorne at that point. 

 

It suggests that the region is poor and does not have a lot to offer. There is nothing from his quote that gives us an idea on population. 

Though what real difference does it make if the Stormlands has 1,000, 10,000 or even a 100,000 more people than Dorne?

It is not confirmed. Unless Doran has far better information on his neighbours than they do on him it is not confirmed but suggested. He is trying to scare his daughter on the futility of war. 

Maybe it is Dorne, maybe it is the Iron Islands or Stormlands, it is really unclear. 

Yeah, that is not safe at all. Military is just as much determined on wealth as it is population. 

Can you quote from the author where he states the Stormlands are lesser in  regards the North or Vale?

The world book highlights it is sparse in comparison to the Reach, Riverlands and West. No other region. 

Well no, GRRM  may have always intended for it to be like that, a more interesting revelation. 

At 2002 you or I have no idea what GRRM meant and given there has been zero indication in any of the books that the North or Vale can generate a 50k army nothing he has said about Dorne in that SSM can be shown as false.

Bernie, I cannot engage in a debate against someone who disputes Doran’s direct quote on Dorne’s population compared to the rest of Westeros.

I’m sorry, you know we have debated vigorously and enjoyably on many aspects of this story over the years, but I just don’t see any point in a discussion where we disagree on something as fundamental as that. So we will just have to agree to disagree on this issue.

[Bernie Mac]

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Bernie, I cannot engage in a debate against someone who disputes Doran’s direct quote on Dorne’s population compared to the rest of Westeros.

How exactly does Doran know the population numbers of the North or Iron Islands?

He was desperate to convince his daughter and nieces not to start a war, of course he is going to talk down their chances. 

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I’m sorry, you know we have debated vigorously and enjoyably on many aspects of this story over the years, but I just don’t see any point in a discussion where we disagree on something as fundamental as that. So we will just have to agree to disagree on this issue.

You are free to ignore the many points I brought up because you did not like a single one of them. 

[Ran]

I just want to reiterate that I don't recall that George said that those were good "maester" numbers. He just allowed GoO to publish them as being a reasonable estimate. Maybe he did say that, I can't find a record of it from my files, given that I'm the one who put together the numbers.

If you take away "good maester guess", and just say that George signed off on them because GoO wanted some numbers and nothing was so wildly off that George was bothered, I think one can see three paths: George changed only Dorne's strength afterward, or he changed his mind on the strength of all three regions afterward, or he knew all along that Dorne wasn't as strong as we put it and knew that was the basis for the North and the Vale but he didn't want to give that away in an RPG and so he let the numbers stand.

And there's literally nothing since to say which of these scenarios is true. So providing an attempt at a summary without acknowledging these facts is misleading. If we ignore George's statement entirely because we don't know what it means, and the list entirely because that was my work based on the evidence then and GRRM's views on them are not necessarily rigorous given the context, the evidence _in the books_ certainly suggests 45k for the North is very much on the high side.

[Free Northman Reborn]

28 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

How exactly does Doran know the population numbers of the North or Iron Islands?

He was desperate to convince his daughter and nieces not to start a war, of course he is going to talk down their chances. 

You are free to ignore the many points I brought up because you did not like a single one of them. 

Is that a taunt to draw me back into discussion? Why do you feel the need for that? I enjoy this discussion. I just don’t see how it can achieve anything if you don’t accept direct quotes from the ruler of a kingdom - complete with a logical backstory for the misrepresentation - as acceptable evidence.

Martin stated that the RPG numbers were roughly what the maesters believed each kingdom’s strength to be. Since every lord has a Maester, every lord will have access to that estimate. So at the very least Doran would be basing his statement on the Maesters estimates of the other kingdoms’ populations. Now, if some of the other kingdoms ALSO have overstated   military strengths, then Doran could conceivably be wrong. But we have no such indication. Sure, all of the estimates will be wrong to some extent - either upwards or downwards by various degrees of accuracy given the setting - but only Dorne is shown to be historically and deliberately misrepresented through a concerted disinformation effort spanning centuries.

[Ran]

21 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Martin stated that the RPG numbers were roughly what the maesters believed each kingdom’s strength to be.

Unless you've a direct quote in that regard, please stop repeating this. I can't swear to it, and certainly have nothing in my files saying this is the case. All I know is that I gave the numbers to GoO, they ran it by him, he said it was okay to publish. I know that the common wisdom is that this must be what he meant when he allowed it to be published, that it was a reasonable "in-world" estimate, but I just can't find any evidence that it's actually what he said. He may have just signed off on them because GoO wanted them and didn't suppose it mattered too much.

The numbers can't be wildly wrong in the aggregate, but would he consider reducing 10-15k off three regions something worth pointing out or worrying over in relation to a licensed game? I don't know. Only George would know.

 

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

18 minutes ago, Ran said:

Unless you've a direct quote in that regard, please stop repeating this. I can't swear to it, and certainly have nothing in my files saying this is the case. All I know is that I gave the numbers to GoO, they ran it by him, he said it was okay to publish. I know that the common wisdom is that this must be what he meant when he allowed it to be published, that it was a reasonable "in-world" estimate, but I just can't find any evidence that it's actually what he said. He may have just signed off on them because GoO wanted them and didn't suppose it mattered too much.

The numbers can't be wildly wrong in the aggregate, but would he consider reducing 10-15k off three regions something worth pointing out or worrying over in relation to a licensed game? I don't know. Only George would know.

 

 

I based it on comments I believe you made on this forum, years ago on this topic. Altough I never used the reference “maesters” but rather “a reasonably informed person in Westeros”, which I recall is how you described it previously. Only after you referred to Maesters believing the figures in post #8 above, did I use that term. Although I’d imagine a Maester would qualify as a reasonably informed person in Westeros, so the distinction is moot.

In any event, I take note of your revised view in your more recent post above and respect that. However, it is clear that Maesters WILL have an estimate of the populations and militaries of each of the regions of Westeros. 

Doran clearly feels he has a solid basis for his assertion that Dorne is the least populous kingdom, implying a source for his comparison to the other kingdoms. And who else would that source be but the Maesters?

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

Ran

What interests me is what made you change your mind? You’re the one who calculated the numbers that were presented to George in 2005, obviously based on all the information available at the time. 

So clearly that information led you to an estimate of the North’s strength of 45k. That was after Robert’s comments on the “empty” Barrowlands in Book 1, after Robb only raised 19500 men, after the Umbers complained that the Greatjon had taken too many men for them to defend against wildling raids along their coast or to harvest their crops, after the Summer Snows had been observed, after Tywin had said there is nothing in the North anyone could want.

In short, after all of the commonly cited reasons to doubt the North’s population size.

And yet you estimated a strength of 45k for them despite all of that, based on information in the first 4 books. So why then, and not anymore?

Ironically, back in 2005, it was before a lot of information emerged that actually bolstered a greater strength for the North. Such as:

The previously unknown 3000 Mountain Clansmen warriors. The reference to the Dustins and potentially Ryswells holding much of their strength back. The new warriors joining Stannis from the Wolfswood. Samwell’s allusion to the difficulty the Starks had in suppressing the Skagosi rebellion, suggesting a far from negligible reserve of men should Skagos be raised. Manderly’s description of his wealth, strength and shipbuilding activities to Davos. And even the revelation of Torhen Stark’s comparatively vast projection of 30k men into the Riverlands compared to the other single kingdom armies of the time.

In short, I am intrigued what new information changed your mind to revise the North’s strength estimate downwards after 2005, when, if anything, the new information available since then should have painted a BETTER picture of the North than we got in the first 4 books, whether that number be 45k or something else.

[Ran]

ADwD and TWoIaF happened. The numbers don't fit. Simple as that.

[Adam Yozza]

3 minutes ago, Ran said:

ADwD and TWoIaF happened. The numbers don't fit. Simple as that.

Except as Free Northman says, ADwD should actually push the estimates of the North's military strenght upward, not downward.

[Nittanian]

Also, Guardians of Order has the following Designer's Note: Accuracy of Numbers at the start of the book.

Quote

The estimations for the strength of armies and the number of swords any house commands was derived from consultation with www.westeros.org. George Martin has allowed us to keep them in, because they benefit the role-playing campaigns significantly. He refuses to confirm or deny the numbers, however, and suggests that medieval historians, scholars, and presumably maesters often disagree about the facts.

Similarly, prices and values of items are given a "best estimate." The relationship of coins (a penny to a groat to a stag to a dragon) is accurate, but the prices for items may vary wildly between two regions, between different seasons, and between the RPG and the novels.