Military Strengths-2 and More!

[Lord Varys]

21 minutes ago, Nittanian said:

FYI, cobblestones are observed in AGOT Arya V and ADWD Cersei II, and cobblestones were used to bludgeon Luthor Largent (TPATQ) and Aron Santagar (ACOK Tyrion IX). 

I know, some streets are cobbled, but not all. And the bulk of the city is built in wood, not stone.

One wonders what happened to all those cisterns and drains and sewers Septon Barth supposedly built according to TWoIaF. They never show up in the main series as far as we know? Are they all just not seen/noted by the characters? Or did they fall in decline in later centuries, and some bad king (Aegon IV, say) had them destroyed?

The way KL is in the main series doesn't indicate that there (m)any drains and sewers in the city...

[Corvo the Crow]

Since there was talk of North again, and it's population and "all the men" and cities of Westeros...

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The Yard was teeming this afternoon. A woman was washing her smallclothes in Fishfoot's fountain and hanging them off his trident to dry. Beneath the arches of the peddler's colonnade the scribes and money changers had set up for business, along with a hedge wizard, an herb woman, and a very bad juggler. A man was selling apples from a barrow, and a woman was offering herring with chopped onions. Chickens and children were everywhere underfoot. The huge oak-and-iron doors of the Old Mint had always been closed when Davos had been in Fishfoot Yard before, but today they stood open. Inside he glimpsed hundreds of women, children, and old men, huddled on the floor on piles of furs. Some had little cookfires going.

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Davos had hoped to speak with Wyman Manderly alone, but he found a crowded court. Along the walls, the women outnumbered the men by five to one; what few males he did see had long grey beards or looked too young to shave. There were septons as well, and holy sisters in white robes and grey. Near the top of the hall stood a dozen men in the blue and silver-grey of House Frey. Their faces had a likeness a blind man could have seen; several wore the badge of the Twins, two towers connected by a bridge.

I remember posting the first one, but not so sure on the second. Either way, I am posting them(again) to make some new remarks on both.

First one is obviously refugees, whether they are from Manderly lands, Hornwood lands or any other place. There may be other places Manderlies have settled the refugees... or not. In either case, two things worth noticing here is they are women, children and old men but no one of fighting age, so wherever they are from, their men is gone, to fighting most like. This paints a similar picture to Karstark, Umber and even Stark lands(Robb taking the likely lads for leagues around) of course it may very well be they joined Manderly for pay.

Second thing worth noticing in the first one is there are hundreds of them. This is in the smallest city of 7K that is located in a portion of 7K that has the least population density and has beeb untouched by war. Think of what this means for KL.

 

Now for second quote. People in the court will be the nobility, however great or small, and maybe some well off commoners. Any men left is either a greybeard or isn't old enough to have a beard. This one is instantly noticable and again paints the North in the same way as. Karstark-Umber lands. What really got my attention is the ratio of men to women. There's 5 women of all ages for every men, who are either greybeards or beardless boys. So granted there are roughly the men and women make up roughly equal parts of this society, for every men staying at home because of his age, there are 4 others who went off fighting. So ~%80 of Westeros' male population is "of fighting age". At least considered so in dire circumstances.

 

The last observation may also give us an idea on how many (male) fighters there are in Mance's host of ~30000. or at least how many there could be at most. 

 

Finally, Drogo's khalasar of 100000 with 40000 screamers gives us the same ~%80. Of course the Dothraki have a martial culture and every men will fight from as early an age as possible to as old an age as possible but it's exactly the same with Westeros' nobility. I think it's no coincidence numbers are the same on both, but was intentional.

 

Before anyone comes saying "but Manderly still has power" and "he didn't even send that many knights" yes, I know but it doesn't mean he didn't raise them. We see him recruiting men(boys) as short as five feet that can hold a spear. He didn't send them to fight but he may have raised them by the time Davos arrived and there is an army of Manderly men camping somewhere in the North. 

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Before anyone comes saying "but Manderly still has power" and "he didn't even send that many knights" yes, I know but it doesn't mean he didn't raise them. We see him recruiting men(boys) as short as five feet that can hold a spear. He didn't send them to fight but he may have raised them by the time Davos arrived and there is an army of Manderly men camping somewhere in the North. 

The hidden army thing is a problem. Yes, Manderly definitely bought ships, and yes, he might hide some of those. But why would Manderly raise another army before the Red Wedding? There is no indication that he did that. And after the Red Wedding he really didn't dare doing anything because of the Wylis situation - and once the Freys arrived (who came before Davos and Wylis) there was no chance to raise new men.

In addition, we do know that part of the Manderly men who didn't march with Robb fought the Boltons in the Hornwood lands. That only stopped after Manderly bent the knee to King Tommen.

We can reasonably assume that those hidden Manderly ships are going to become relevant to the plot later on, but not some hidden Manderly army.

If Wyman had a vast 'hidden army' left he would have taken it with him to Winterfell to have a much larger dagger to stab in Roose's back (and have a much larger force to protect his person and defend himself against Bolton backstabbing).

One assumes he still could raise another small army, but nothing fancy.

[Corvo the Crow]

43 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But why would Manderly raise another army before the Red Wedding? There is no indication that he did that. And after the Red Wedding he really didn't dare doing anything because of the Wylis situation - and once the Freys arrived (who came before Davos and Wylis) there was no chance to raise new men.

No, not before RW, but he'd still have more troops than he sent to Robb even at the start; Robb ordered him to strengthen WH's defenses, it would include troops to defend it and Davos saw the increased defenses such as troops and scorpions on seal rock. As for Freys, they arrived shortly before Davos, Manderly would be mostly done raising troops by then and we don't see any "men" among the the nobility so indeed he has already raised what he would among them, moreover, he is still raising men even after Freys have arrived, as Davos learns he accepts anyone five feet tall with a hand capable of grasping spear.

 

48 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We can reasonably assume that those hidden Manderly ships are going to become relevant to the plot later on, but not some hidden Manderly army.

If Wyman had a vast 'hidden army' left he would have taken it with him to Winterfell to have a much larger dagger to stab in Roose's back (and have a much larger force to protect his person and defend himself against Bolton backstabbing). 

One assumes he still could raise another small army, but nothing fancy.

He has an entire city and likely other land besides, 100 landed knights and 12 lords presumably each with their own landed knights and some even with other lords below and yet what do we see? 20 odd knights sent with Robb, at most 300 men(near as numerous as Cerwyns) sent to Rodrik, of which some are knights but there were also siege engines so men to operate them as well and finally another 100 knights as an escort, with him. Even if he sent 300 men to Rodrik and all of them were knights, is 420 knights is all he, a man with an entire city and so many vassals, would have when even Karstarks have have more than 300 Knight equivalents? Not to mention he himself says he still has more heavy horse than any others.

 

As for not bringing them with Roose, what he has is a suicide squad, or rather army. Same as Mclans. Same as Umbers inside the castle.

Quotes on it below.

 

 

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"My brother Galbart's seat. It was and is, thanks to your King Stannis. He has taken Deepwood back from the iron bitch who stole it and offers to restore it to its rightful owners. Much and more has happened whilst you have been confined within these walls, Lord Davos. Moat Cailin has fallen, and Roose Bolton has returned to the north with Ned Stark's younger daughter. A host of Freys came with him. Bolton has sent forth ravens, summoning all the lords of the north to Barrowton. He demands homage and hostages … and witnesses to the wedding of Arya Stark and his bastard Ramsay Snow, by which match the Boltons mean to lay claim to Winterfell. Now, will you come with me, or no?"

...

"Soon I must return to the feast to toast my friends of Frey," Manderly continued. "They watch me, ser. Day and night their eyes are on me, noses sniffing for some whiff of treachery. You saw them, the arrogant Ser Jared and his nephew Rhaegar, that smirking worm who wears a dragon's name. Behind them both stands Symond, clinking coins. That one has bought and paid for several of my servants and two of my knights. One of his wife's handmaids has found her way into the bed of my own fool. If Stannis wonders that my letters say so little, it is because I dare not even trust my maester. Theomore is all head and no heart. You heard him in my hall. Maesters are supposed to put aside old loyalties when they don their chains, but I cannot forget that Theomore was born a Lannister of Lannisport and claims some distant kinship to the Lannisters of Casterly Rock. Foes and false friends are all around me, Lord Davos. They infest my city like roaches, and at night I feel them crawling over me." The fat man's fingers coiled into a fist, and all his chins trembled. "My son Wendel came to the Twins a guest. He ate Lord Walder's bread and salt, and hung his sword upon the wall to feast with friends. And they murdered him. Murdered, I say, and may the Freys choke upon their fables. I drink with Jared, jape with Symond, promise Rhaegar the hand of my own beloved granddaughter … but never think that means I have forgotten. The north remembers, Lord Davos. The north remembers, and the mummer's farce is almost done. My son is home."

…

 

The Lord of White Harbor leaned forward. "The Freys are no better. They speak of wargs and skinchangers and assert that it was Robb Stark who slew my Wendel. The arrogance of it! They do not expect the north to believe their lies, not truly, but they think we must pretend to believe or die. Roose Bolton lies about his part in the Red Wedding, and his bastard lies about the fall of Winterfell. And yet so long as they held Wylis I had no choice but to eat all this excrement and praise the taste."

He had hoped to hear Lord Wyman say, And now I shall declare for King Stannis, but instead the fat man smiled an odd, twinkling smile and said, "And now I have a wedding to attend. I am too fat to sit a horse, as any man with eyes can plainly see. As a boy I loved to ride, and as a young man I handled a mount well enough to win some small acclaim in the lists, but those days are done. My body has become a prison more dire than the Wolf's Den. Even so, I must go to Winterfell. Roose Bolton wants me on my knees, and beneath the velvet courtesy he shows the iron mail. I shall go by barge and litter, attended by a hundred knights and my good friends from the Twins. The Freys came here by sea. They have no horses with them, so I shall present each of them with a palfrey as a guest gift. Do hosts still give guest gifts in the south?"

….

"Roose Bolton has Lord Eddard's daughter. To thwart him White Harbor must have Ned's son … and the direwolf. The wolf will prove the boy is who we say he is, should the Dreadfort attempt to deny him. That is my price, Lord Davos. Smuggle me back my liege lord, and I will take Stannis Baratheon as my king."

 

 

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...

"Forty wayns full of foodstuffs. Casks of wine and hippocras, barrels of fresh-caught lampreys, a herd of goats, a hundred pigs, crates of crabs and oysters, a monstrous codfish … Lord Wyman likes to eat. You may have noticed."

"What I noticed was that he brought no hostages."

"I noticed that as well."

...

He should be. Fear is what keeps a man alive in this world of treachery and deceit. Even here in Barrowton the crows are circling, waiting to feast upon our flesh. The Cerwyns and the Tallharts are not to be relied on, my fat friend Lord Wyman plots betrayal, and Whoresbane … the Umbers may seem simple, but they are not without a certain low cunning. Ramsay should fear them all, as I do. The next time you see him, tell him that."

 

 

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"So young," said Wyman Manderly. "Though mayhaps this was a blessing. Had he lived, he would have grown up to be a Frey."

Ser Hosteen slammed his foot into the tabletop, knocking it off its trestles, back into Lord Wyman's swollen belly. Cups and platters flew, sausages scattered everywhere, and a dozen Manderly men came cursing to their feet. Some grabbed up knives, platters, flagons, anything that might serve as a weapon.

Hosteen Frey's sword was red almost to the hilt. Blood spatters speckled his cheeks like freckles. He lowered his blade and said, "As my lord commands. But after I deliver you the head of Stannis Baratheon, I mean to finish hacking off Lord Lard's."

Four White Harbor knights had formed a ring around Lord Wyman, as Maester Medrick labored over him to staunch his bleeding. "First you must needs come through us, ser," said the eldest of them, a hard-faced greybeard whose bloodstained surcoat showed three silvery mermaids upon a violet field.

 

"Mummer's farce is done", No hostages, provoking attitude and bringing old knights. He certainly knows this is his last battle. 

 

Non relevant to the thread but just a fun little bonus: anyone noticed the eldest knight's surcoat, three silvery mermaids upon a violet field? Is it familiar? Woolfields have three White sacks of wool on a violet field and Manderly sigil is a merman. His sigil combines them both and having mermaids and not mermen would point out to him being the (descendant of) son of a Woolfield man and a Manderly woman. Three mermaids may be due to the three woolsacks or may even be a third daughter or daughter third in line to inhert (tyrell sigil is a rose, Garlan's is two roses, Loras' three.)

[Lord Varys]

20 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

No, not before RW, but he'd still have more troops than he sent to Robb even at the start; Robb ordered him to strengthen WH's defenses, it would include troops to defend it and Davos saw the increased defenses such as troops and scorpions on seal rock. As for Freys, they arrived shortly before Davos, Manderly would be mostly done raising troops by then and we don't see any "men" among the the nobility so indeed he has already raised what he would among them, moreover, he is still raising men even after Freys have arrived, as Davos learns he accepts anyone five feet tall with a hand capable of grasping spear.

But Wylis only arrived after the Freys and Davos. Are we to believe Manderly actually raised troops to defy the Iron Throne while his son was still a hostage? You cannot raise a host as the lord of a major city and expect nobody rats you out - even before the Freys arrived this wouldn't have worked.

Building ships, strengthening defenses, etc. - yes. A considerable number of men (knights included) on the hidden ships? Yes. Because that whole project started long before the Red Wedding. But an army of considerable size, raised in the Manderly lands and White Harbor, now hiding behind the second tree on the left? No. Not when a good part of Manderly's men was involved (and perhaps is still, in part, involved) in the Hornwood campaign.

20 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

He has an entire city and likely other land besides, 100 landed knights and 12 lords presumably each with their own landed knights and some even with other lords below and yet what do we see? 20 odd knights sent with Robb, at most 300 men(near as numerous as Cerwyns) sent to Rodrik, of which some are knights but there were also siege engines so men to operate them as well and finally another 100 knights as an escort, with him. Even if he sent 300 men to Rodrik and all of them were knights, is 420 knights is all he, a man with an entire city and so many vassals, would have when even Karstarks have have more than 300 Knight equivalents? Not to mention he himself says he still has more heavy horse than any others.

Perhaps Wylis, Wyman's cousin and others are now raising troops along with Robett Glover (if the man didn't accompany Davos which I actually think he did) now that the Freys have been eaten. I could see a fresh host showing up at Winterfell - not for the battle in the village, but for the subsequent battle/siege of Winterfell.

The question here is whether George gives a rat's ass about numbers giving in AGoT/ACoK when writing ADwD. A lot of numbers do not add up, especially not in the military numbers department - and the novels are not written so that they add up.

I mean, where the hell are Stannis 20,000 cavalry (minus the couple of thousands of Loras took back to Bitterbridge)? Why doesn't he have over 10,000 horse at the Blackwater? He should have, because Renly didn't bring him any infantry.

Where are all those Florent men in Stannis' army in ADwD when we learned that the men retreating from the Blackwater were chiefly Florent men. The only Florent/Reach guy with Stannis in ADwD is Ser Axell, if I recall correctly. The others are Stormlanders and Crownlanders.

Those are all pretty obvious mistakes.

The way I see it, George wants to have Stannis' and Roose's men to fight it out - without any hidden rescue troops. That is the better story - it shows that war and victory comes with a cost, and isn't granted by 'magical troops'. Whatever Skagosi or Manderlys are still out there might come in handy later - for whatever happens then.

And the ships could be used to get sellswords into the North or food from the Vale or the Flatlands to White Harbor. Or to allow them to deploy troops down south much swifter if that's what anyone wants 

[Corvo the Crow]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But Wylis only arrived after the Freys and Davos. Are we to believe Manderly actually raised troops to defy the Iron Throne while his son was still a hostage? You cannot raise a host as the lord of a major city and expect nobody rats you out - even before the Freys arrived this wouldn't have worked.

Building ships, strengthening defenses, etc. - yes. A considerable number of men (knights included) on the hidden ships? Yes. Because that whole project started long before the Red Wedding. But an army of considerable size, raised in the Manderly lands and White Harbor, now hiding behind the second tree on the left? No. Not when a good part of Manderly's men was involved (and perhaps is still, in part, involved) in the Hornwood campaign.

Perhaps Wylis, Wyman's cousin and others are now raising troops along with Robett Glover (if the man didn't accompany Davos which I actually think he did) now that the Freys have been eaten. I could see a fresh host showing up at Winterfell - not for the battle in the village, but for the subsequent battle/siege of Winterfell.

The question here is whether George gives a rat's ass about numbers giving in AGoT/ACoK when writing ADwD. A lot of numbers do not add up, especially not in the military numbers department - and the novels are not written so that they add up.

I mean, where the hell are Stannis 20,000 cavalry (minus the couple of thousands of Loras took back to Bitterbridge)? Why doesn't he have over 10,000 horse at the Blackwater? He should have, because Renly didn't bring him any infantry.

Where are all those Florent men in Stannis' army in ADwD when we learned that the men retreating from the Blackwater were chiefly Florent men. The only Florent/Reach guy with Stannis in ADwD is Ser Axell, if I recall correctly. The others are Stormlanders and Crownlanders.

Those are all pretty obvious mistakes.

The way I see it, George wants to have Stannis' and Roose's men to fight it out - without any hidden rescue troops. That is the better story - it shows that war and victory comes with a cost, and isn't granted by 'magical troops'. Whatever Skagosi or Manderlys are still out there might come in handy later - for whatever happens then.

And the ships could be used to get sellswords into the North or food from the Vale or the Flatlands to White Harbor. Or to allow them to deploy troops down south much swifter if that's what anyone wants 

True on numbers not adding up, but what we see of WH when Davos arrives is men have already göne to battle. We know they didn't go with Robb, and surely they couldn't have all died in Hornwood lands against a force that would be much smaller so reasonable assumption is that there is an army somewhere. Of course this is a novel and not real life so GRRM may at any time decide to give 10000 troops out of thin air to some spent region (like M clans for North) and decide that an army tens of thousands in strength will reduce to a handful of men as in Stannis' case.

[Free Northman Reborn]

19 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

True on numbers not adding up, but what we see of WH when Davos arrives is men have already göne to battle. We know they didn't go with Robb, and surely they couldn't have all died in Hornwood lands against a force that would be much smaller so reasonable assumption is that there is an army somewhere. Of course this is a novel and not real life so GRRM may at any time decide to give 10000 troops out of thin air to some spent region (like M clans for North) and decide that an army tens of thousands in strength will reduce to a handful of men as in Stannis' case.

You are reading too much into it. You see “hundreds” of refugees. Make that 900 to be generous. The majority are women and children. Make that 800 of the 900, again, to be generous. If each woman has one missing husband and 2 kids, you are looking at about 250 women, 500 kids gathered in White Harbor. That represents maybe a few hundred dead men. We know that just in the South with Robb about 16000 men died. You would expect there to be hordes of now destitute women and children flocking to White Harbor as a result.

That says nothing about the number of men Manderly has left. White Harbor is estimated to have 30k people. His surrounding domains probably ten times that number.

The few hundred women and children refugees are meaningless in that context, and completely expected.

[Corvo the Crow]

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You are reading too much into it. You see “hundreds” of refugees. Make that 900 to be generous. The majority are women and children. Make that 800 of the 900, again, to be generous. If each woman has one missing husband and 2 kids, you are looking at about 250 women, 500 kids gathered in White Harbor. That represents maybe a few hundred dead men. We know that just in the South with Robb about 16000 men died. You would expect there to be hordes of now destitute women and children flocking to White Harbor as a result.

That says nothing about the number of men Manderly has left. White Harbor is estimated to have 30k people. His surrounding domains probably ten times that number.

The fee hundred women and children refugees are meaningless in that context, and completely expected.

I didn't read anything about Manderly situation on that. What I meant was hundreds of refugees came to White harbor despite the North is untouched by war save Hornwood lands and even that is a small thing. If the situation is "this bad" in the desolate North with small population density (fewer people affected in fighting in a single place) and low numbers of people living(fewer people to begin with) that is untouched by war, then King's landing in a region with higher population density that's bordering other dense regions with many people living in all of these, and some directly affected by war (Riverlands) then the refugees in KL must number in the tens of thousands.

[Free Northman Reborn]

7 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I didn't read anything about Manderly situation on that. What I meant was hundreds of refugees came to White harbor despite the North is untouched by war save Hornwood lands and even that is a small thing. If the situation is "this bad" in the desolate North with small population density (fewer people affected in fighting in a single place) and low numbers of people living(fewer people to begin with) that is untouched by war, then King's landing in a region with higher population density that's bordering other dense regions with many people living in all of these, and some directly affected by war (Riverlands) then the refugees in KL must number in the tens of thousands.

Ok. Agreed.

[Corvo the Crow]

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Ok. Agreed.

I'm confused, is it agreed as in "yeah this is not the case in Manderly lands" or as in " indeed the KL must have that many refugees"?

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I'm confused, is it agreed as in "yeah this is not the case in Manderly lands" or as in " indeed the KL must have that many refugees"?

Indeed, Kings Landing must be overflowing with refugees. As I think Tyrion or someone referred to. Normal population probably closer to 350k than 500k.

[rotting sea cow]

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Are we to believe Manderly actually raised troops to defy the Iron Throne while his son was still a hostage? You cannot raise a host as the lord of a major city and expect nobody rats you out - even before the Freys arrived this wouldn't have worked.

Wyman Manderly was raising men before his son was released, not necessarily to defy the IT.

"The apple seller shrugged. "Some beg. Some steal. Lots o' young girls taking up the trade, the way girls always do when it's all they got to sell. Any boy stands five feet tall can find a place in his lordship's barracks, long as he can hold a spear."

He's raising men, then. That might be good … or bad, depending. The apple was dry and mealy, but Davos made himself take another bite. "Does Lord Wyman mean to join the Bastard?"  Davos II - ADWD

 

47 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

That says nothing about the number of men Manderly has left. White Harbor is estimated to have 30k people. His surrounding domains probably ten times that number.

There is a simple way to estimate current White Harbor's forces. Manderly has built around 50 warships. They are not longships but war galleys. The typical scaling is about 100 men per ship (excluding crew). This will give you an army around of 5000 men. This should be closer to a lower limit than a higher one as not all men are expected to go into the ships.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

22 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Wyman Manderly was raising men before his son was released, not necessarily to defy the IT.

"The apple seller shrugged. "Some beg. Some steal. Lots o' young girls taking up the trade, the way girls always do when it's all they got to sell. Any boy stands five feet tall can find a place in his lordship's barracks, long as he can hold a spear."

He's raising men, then. That might be good … or bad, depending. The apple was dry and mealy, but Davos made himself take another bite. "Does Lord Wyman mean to join the Bastard?"  Davos II - ADWD

 

There is a simple way to estimate current White Harbor's forces. Manderly has built around 50 warships. They are not longships but war galleys. The typical scaling is about 100 men per ship (excluding crew). This will give you an army around of 5000 men. This should be closer to a lower limit than a higher one as not all men are expected to go into the ships.

 

Yeah. It would be kind of stupid to build more ships than you can man. A huge wasted expense if you don’t have men to fill them with.

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

True on numbers not adding up, but what we see of WH when Davos arrives is men have already göne to battle. We know they didn't go with Robb, and surely they couldn't have all died in Hornwood lands against a force that would be much smaller so reasonable assumption is that there is an army somewhere. Of course this is a novel and not real life so GRRM may at any time decide to give 10000 troops out of thin air to some spent region (like M clans for North) and decide that an army tens of thousands in strength will reduce to a handful of men as in Stannis' case.

To defend the city against an impending Bolton or Lannister attack raising troops would be fine. What would be odd is if nobody told Symond Frey and his clinking coins that Lord Wyman Manderly had raised thousands of men before their arrival and they had now just disappeared into thin air. That would be very odd.

The Freys most likely know about the ships. But since they do not exactly threaten them they are not that much of an issue, one assumes. And army of considerable size would be.

We also do not know that all the Manderly men who fought in the Hornwood lands are back in the city by the time Davos arrives - remember, Manderly only bends the knee after he reaches his deal with Cersei and Wylis is back in White Harbor. Before that he is technically still in defiance to both King Tommen and the new Warden in the North. We don't know how full Lord Wyman's court is when Wylis return his celebrated since Davos doesn't exactly attend this feast...

The situation in KL is already dire in ACoK/ASoS but it really gets worse when all the sparrows arrive at the end of ASoS and in AFfC. They alone must number in the tens of thousands, or else they would never have had the power or audacity to drag Septon Luceon out of his brothel, storm and take over the Great Sept, or threaten the Queen Regent in front of the Great Sept in her own city.

But the sparrows are not the only refugees in KL. They are mostly from the Riverlands, when they should be refugees there from the Crownlands, too, especially the Duskendale area, in addition to people from the Stormlands.

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Wyman Manderly was raising men before his son was released, not necessarily to defy the IT.

"The apple seller shrugged. "Some beg. Some steal. Lots o' young girls taking up the trade, the way girls always do when it's all they got to sell. Any boy stands five feet tall can find a place in his lordship's barracks, long as he can hold a spear."

He's raising men, then. That might be good … or bad, depending. The apple was dry and mealy, but Davos made himself take another bite. "Does Lord Wyman mean to join the Bastard?"  Davos II - ADWD

See above. That's before the deal with the Iron Throne is made, and it is obviously no secret. Manderlys barracks are likely in the city, not outside of it. Those men don't seem to be part of some hidden army. 

Quote

There is a simple way to estimate current White Harbor's forces. Manderly has built around 50 warships. They are not longships but war galleys. The typical scaling is about 100 men per ship (excluding crew). This will give you an army around of 5000 men. This should be closer to a lower limit than a higher one as not all men are expected to go into the ships.

Well, that's a weird way of looking at things. If you recall then Lord Wyman was building a war fleet for King Robb Stark, not himself. Perhaps the plan was to man those ships with King Robb's men, not necessarily only Manderly men?

Also, a man having sufficient men to man 50 warships should also enough competent sailors at the ready to not be dependent of Davos Seaworth to get to Skagos. I mean, come on, Manderly tells us he doesn't have experienced sailors for deep water expeditions, basically, so how the hell could he properly man and use those warships?

Chances are also not that good that you can use proper deep sea warships to navigate the White Knife up near to Winterfell...

[rotting sea cow]

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

See above. That's before the deal with the Iron Throne is made, and it is obviously no secret. Manderlys barracks are likely in the city, not outside of it. Those men don't seem to be part of some hidden army. 

Ahh... Ok... we are discussing about a hidden army near Winterfell, not that Manderly is raising an army, sorry for the misunderstanding.... Well, I don't think there is a hidden army either. Manderly may have some detachments up the White Knife, but unlikely a full army. 1) because I don't think the army is fully assembled as these five-foot-tall boys needs to be recruited and trained 2) They are waiting for Rickon to fully commit themselves 3) Manderly himself is going to a suicide mission and doesn't need a full army for that

`Anyway, as we speak, White Harbor is likely preparing for war.

 

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, that's a weird way of looking at things. If you recall then Lord Wyman was building a war fleet for King Robb Stark, not himself. Perhaps the plan was to man those ships with King Robb's men, not necessarily only Manderly men?

Possibly, but since he has now the ships, he needs to crew them.

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Also, a man having sufficient men to man 50 warships should also enough competent sailors at the ready to not be dependent of Davos Seaworth to get to Skagos. I mean, come on, Manderly tells us he doesn't have experienced sailors for deep water expeditions, basically, so how the hell could he properly man and use those warships?

It is certainly a big problem and comes from the long story of The North dismissing naval power. I think that when the plan was laid out, there wasn't the expectation of having them crewed with competent sailors right away. But you need the ships to train the sailors.

 

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Chances are also not that good that you can use proper deep sea warships to navigate the White Knife up near to Winterfell...

Certainly not, they use barges to navigate the White Knife.

 

 

[Lord Varys]

21 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Ahh... Ok... we are discussing about a hidden army near Winterfell, not that Manderly is raising an army, sorry for the misunderstanding.... Well, I don't think there is a hidden army either. Manderly may have some detachments up the White Knife, but unlikely a full army. 1) because I don't think the army is fully assembled as these five-foot-tall boys needs to be recruited and trained 2) They are waiting for Rickon to fully commit themselves 3) Manderly himself is going to a suicide mission and doesn't need a full army for that.

Well, I'd say more men with him at Winterfell could help it not be a more successful suicide mission, no ;-)? But in general I do agree that Manderly expect Wylis and Wynafryd to continue 'the Manderly plan'. He himself is a walking corpse, and he knows it.

21 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Anyway, as we speak, White Harbor is likely preparing for war.

That is not unlikely. And it was preparing for war before, too, although, in my opinion, to defend rather than attack. While Tywin was alive chances were not that bad that the Redwyne fleet in combination with a Bolton attack would eventually attack White Harbor. And then there was the Hornwood situation.

21 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Possibly, but since he has now the ships, he needs to crew them.

But that doesn't mean he has the men to do that, no? I mean, White Harbor is the fifth largest city in Westeros. If Manderly doesn't have a smuggler-seafarer as competent as Davos Seaworth, how likely is it that he has (m)any men to train deep water sailors, especially for a military navy?

21 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

It is certainly a big problem and comes from the long story of The North dismissing naval power. I think that when the plan was laid out, there wasn't the expectation of having them crewed with competent sailors right away. But you need the ships to train the sailors.

You also need the sea or at least a bay to train sailors. You cannot properly learn to sail the deep seas on a river.

Overall, I think Manderly would have profited much more if he had more men with him considering that more men mean a bigger dagger in Roose's back in battle. I mean, if Arnolf Karstark had come with thousands of men to Stannis rather than just a couple of hundred, the effect of his betrayal would have been much larger, too, no?

[rotting sea cow]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, I'd say more men with him at Winterfell could help it not be a more successful suicide mission, no ;-)?

Not necessarily. You need men who are willing to commit themselves to that mission. We see how Whorebane takes the grey beards to Winterfell. It should be similar with Manderly forces. Maybe they are the fathers of those killed in the Red Wedding or those who see that as an insult against the gods, etc.  If you take too many, specially those who are not disciplined enough, your risk of failing is higher.

Maybe Wyman expected that Davos would be back sooner and the White Harbor armies will mobilize earlier and he and his knights would undermine the defences from within (just wildly speculating)

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But that doesn't mean he has the men to do that, no? I mean, White Harbor is the fifth largest city in Westeros. If Manderly doesn't have a smuggler-seafarer as competent as Davos Seaworth, how likely is it that he has (m)any men to train deep water sailors, especially for a military navy?

To crew the ships, you need sailors accustomed to deep waters. You can draw them (or some of them) from merchant ships and they will also help to train the new sailors, to e.g. row in coordination, tend the sails, etc. You still need someone competent to teach them (and the ship captains) to perform war manoeuvres. Since WH didn't have an navy for a long, Manderly is in big trouble. He didn't have that capability. Certainly some educated knights will consult books and try to replicate certain things. But it will take a lot of time, unless you can hire someone who understands this sort of things.  BTW, this is the reason why I'm insistent about who will command Dany's fleet. It is a very different thing to man or captain a ship than take that ship to war.

 

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You also need the sea or at least a bay to train sailors. You cannot properly learn to sail the deep seas on a river.

The mouth of the White Knife is a good start. Also, they need to learn that too. See the Blackwater.  But of course, they need the seas.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Overall, I think Manderly would have profited much more if he had more men with him considering that more men mean a bigger dagger in Roose's back in battle. I mean, if Arnolf Karstark had come with thousands of men to Stannis rather than just a couple of hundred, the effect of his betrayal would have been much larger, too, no?

See above. Karstark expected (hoped ) to survive. Manderly doesn't.

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Not necessarily. You need men who are willing to commit themselves to that mission. We see how Whorebane takes the grey beards to Winterfell. It should be similar with Manderly forces. Maybe they are the fathers of those killed in the Red Wedding or those who see that as an insult against the gods, etc.  If you take too many, specially those who are not disciplined enough, your risk of failing is higher.

I don't think there is any indication that Manderlys men are on a suicide mission, too. I mean, Manderly is the fat man who cannot run, cannot fight, cannot ride. His men hopefully are in better shape. And they go out into battle, they are not stuck in Winterfell with Roose, Ramsay, and their men.

I think Wyman is on a suicide mission because he cannot hope to live when the Boltons learn what he did. But if he were a men actually accompanying his knights into battle he very well could survive.

4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

To crew the ships, you need sailors accustomed to deep waters. You can draw them (or some of them) from merchant ships and they will also help to train the new sailors, to e.g. row in coordination, tend the sails, etc. You still need someone competent to teach them (and the ship captains) to perform war manoeuvres. Since WH didn't have an navy for a long, Manderly is in big trouble. He didn't have that capability. Certainly some educated knights will consult books and try to replicate certain things. But it will take a lot of time, unless you can hire someone who understands this sort of things.  BTW, this is the reason why I'm insistent about who will command Dany's fleet. It is a very different thing to man or captain a ship than take that ship to war.

At this point, though, there is no indication that Lord Wyman is or has been hiring any sailors, no? And Davos entered White Harbor by ship and hung out in sailors' dens before he presented himself to the Manderlys.

I've done a little bit of sailing myself - it makes absolutely no sense to try to learn that on a river. If the fleet is hidden right now, it is completely useless as a future proper war fleet.

One can see something growing out of that whole thing with Stannis being the former Master of Ships and the Braavosi loans.

[Free Northman Reborn]

We all know the Davos-Wex-Skagos plot is a contrived absurdity that makes no sense. Martin wanted to bring Davos into Rickon’s plot arc and appears to have bludgeoned the two plothreads together in a rare hamfisted manner when he ran out of time to think up something better.

The islander Wex being able to follow the wildling Osha and Rickon’s direwolf over a distance of anything more than a mile of the North’s expanse without being discovered is ridiculous, let alone being able to get close enough to uncover their ultimate  destination.

In the same way, the idea that “the Merman’s Court”, the House with a history book titled “Wed to the Sea”, and the ruler of the fifth biggest port in Westeros does not have any deep sea sailors and needs an elaborate plot to manipulate a possibly untrustworthy Davos to fetch their “ace in the hole” Rickon from  Skagos beggars belief even more.

Even tiny Eastwatch by the Sea has deep sea sailors who can sail past Skagos. But White Harbor has none? Give me a break.

[Lord Varys]

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

We all know the Davos-Wex-Skagos plot is a contrived absurdity that makes no sense. Martin wanted to bring Davos into Rickon’s plot arc and appears to have bludgeoned the two plothreads together in a rare hamfisted manner when he ran out of time to think up something better.

The islander Wex being able to follow the wildling Osha and Rickon’s direwolf over a distance of anything more than a mile of the North’s expanse without being discovered is ridiculous, let alone being able to get close enough to uncover their ultimate  destination.

In the same way, the idea that “the Merman’s Court”, the House with a history book titled “Wed to the Sea”, and the ruler of the fifth biggest port in Westeros does not have any deep sea sailors and needs an elaborate plot to manipulate a possibly untrustworthy Davos to fetch their “ace in the hole” Rickon from  Skagos beggars belief even more.

Even tiny Eastwatch by the Sea has deep sea sailors who can sail past Skagos. But White Harbor has none? Give me a break.

But that's how it is and we have to deal with that.

And Wex's story might not be his whole story. I'm pretty sure Wex must have been with Osha and Rickon or a while, or else he would have never known that they were going to Skagos.

The smart thing to do would have to take the boy in and have him go to Stark loyalists to inform them where Rickon went so that somebody knew.

I mean, the idea that Wex was recognized as Ironborn by Manderly's men is ridiculous. He is mute, and one assume that he wasn't running around in Greyjoy colors after he left Winterfell. He is smart. And why on earth should anyone ask a mute commoner for information on Winterfell?